Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND): Historical Returns

Data Source: from January 1871 to June 2024 (~154 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 June 2024
Live Update: Jul 12 2024
Category: Fixed Income
Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND) ETF
Currency: USD
ETF • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
0.26%
1 Day
Jul 12 2024
1.60%
Current Month
July 2024

In the last 30 Years, the Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND) ETF obtained a 4.34% compound annual return, with a 4.24% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -17.28% that required 47 months to be recovered.

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The ETF is related to the following investment themes:

  • Asset Class: Bond
  • Region: North America
  • Country: U.S.
  • Bond - Duration: All-Term

The Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND) ETF is part of the following Lazy Portfolios:

Portfolio Name Author BND Weight Currency
Total Bond US 100.00% USD
Stocks/Bonds 20/80 80.00% USD
Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Momentum 80.00% USD
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 60.00% USD
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Momentum 60.00% USD
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 with Bitcoin 59.00% USD
LifeStrategy Income Fund Vanguard 56.00% USD
Lifepath Fund iShares 50.82% USD
All Country World Bonds 50.00% USD
LifeStrategy Conservative Growth Vanguard 42.00% USD
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 40.00% USD
Coffeehouse Bill Schultheis 40.00% USD
Conservative Income Charles Schwab 40.00% USD
All Country World 20/80 40.00% USD
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Momentum 40.00% USD
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 with Bitcoin 39.00% USD
Talmud Portfolio Roger Gibson 33.33% USD
All Country World 40/60 30.00% USD
Simple and Cheap Time Inc 30.00% USD
Tilt Toward Value Time Inc 30.00% USD
LifeStrategy Moderate Growth Vanguard 28.00% USD
Simple Path to Wealth JL Collins 25.00% USD
Marc Faber Portfolio Marc Faber 25.00% USD
Ivy Portfolio Mebane Faber 20.00% USD
Core Four Rick Ferri 20.00% USD
Three Funds Bogleheads 20.00% USD
Stocks/Bonds 80/20 20.00% USD
All Country World 60/40 20.00% USD
Jane Bryant Quinn Portfolio Jane Bryant Quinn 20.00% USD
Nano Portfolio John Wasik 20.00% USD
Stocks/Bonds 80/20 Momentum 20.00% USD
Robo Advisor 50 Betterment 14.70% USD
Five Asset Roger Gibson 14.00% USD
LifeStrategy Growth Fund Vanguard 14.00% USD
Four Funds Bogleheads 10.00% USD
Second Grader's Starter Paul Farrell 10.00% USD
Gone Fishin' Portfolio Alexander Green 10.00% USD
All Country World 80/20 10.00% USD
Gretchen Tai Portfolio Gretchen Tai 10.00% USD
Robo Advisor 20 Betterment 7.60% USD
Robo Advisor 80 Betterment 6.80% USD
Dedalo Eleven Dedalo Invest 6.00% USD
Robo Advisor 10 Betterment 3.80% USD
Robo Advisor 90 Betterment 3.50% USD
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Investment Returns as of Jun 30, 2024

The Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND) ETF guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:
  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • the reinvestment of dividends.
  • the actual US Inflation rates.
VANGUARD TOTAL BOND MARKET (BND) ETF
Consolidated returns as of 30 June 2024
Live Update: Jul 12 2024
Swipe left to see all data
  Chg (%) Return (%) Return (%) as of Jun 30, 2024
  1 Day Time ET(*) Jul 2024 1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~154Y)
Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND) ETF 0.26 1.60 0.88 -0.58 2.56 -0.26 1.31 4.34 4.48
US Inflation Adjusted return 0.94 -1.95 -0.40 -4.26 -1.47 1.76 2.31
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1871
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Jun 2024. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 2.98% , 5Y: 4.17% , 10Y: 2.81% , 30Y: 2.53%
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In 2023, the Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND) ETF granted a 3.20% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND) ETF: Dividend Yield page.

Capital Growth as of Jun 30, 2024

An investment of 1$, since July 1994, now would be worth 3.58$, with a total return of 257.69% (4.34% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 1.69$, with a net total return of 68.99% (1.76% annualized).

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An investment of 1$, since January 1871, now would be worth 835.17$, with a total return of 83417.40% (4.48% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 33.29$, with a net total return of 3229.10% (2.31% annualized).

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Investment Metrics as of Jun 30, 2024

Metrics of Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND) ETF, updated as of 30 June 2024, provide a comprehensive overview of the portfolio's performance and risk characteristics.

These metrics include detailed data on returns, volatility, drawdowns and other key performance indicators. By examining them, you can gain insights into how the portfolio has performed over various time periods and understand its risk profile.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • the reinvestment of dividends.
  • the actual US Inflation rates.
VANGUARD TOTAL BOND MARKET (BND) ETF
Advanced Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 30 June 2024 (~154 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of Jun 30, 2024
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
(~154Y)
Investment Return (%) 0.88 0.11 -0.58 2.56 -3.10 -0.26 1.31 2.98 4.34 4.48
Infl. Adjusted Return (%)
0.94 -0.16 -1.95 -0.40 -7.69 -4.26 -1.47 0.41 1.76 2.31
US Inflation (%) -0.06 0.26 1.40 2.98 4.97 4.17 2.81 2.56 2.53 2.12
Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -4.71 -16.55 -17.28 -17.28 -17.28 -17.28 -17.28
Start to Recovery (# months)
6 35* 47* 47* 47* 47* 47*
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 07 2021 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08
Start to Bottom (# months) 4 15 27 27 27 27 27
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10
Bottom to End (# months) 2 20 20 20 20 20 20
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 - - - - - -
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -3.08
same

same

same

same

same

same
Start to Recovery (# months)
6*
Start (yyyy mm) 2024 01 2021 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08
Start to Bottom (# months) 4 15 27 27 27 27 27
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2024 04 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10
Bottom to End (# months) 2 20 20 20 20 20 20
End (yyyy mm) - - - - - - -
Longest negative period (# months)
10 36* 60* 90 90 90 90
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 07 2021 07 2019 07 2016 05 2016 05 2016 05 2016 05
Period End (yyyy mm) 2024 04 2024 06 2024 06 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10
Annualized Return (%) -0.02 -3.10 -0.26 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -5.80 -26.11 -30.41 -30.41 -30.41 -30.41 -48.08
Start to Recovery (# months)
6 35* 47* 47* 47* 47* 165
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 07 2021 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 1916 03
Start to Bottom (# months) 4 27 39 39 39 39 52
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 1920 06
Bottom to End (# months) 2 8 8 8 8 8 113
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 - - - - - 1929 11
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -4.46
same

same

same

same

same
-46.74
Start to Recovery (# months)
6* 538
Start (yyyy mm) 2024 01 2021 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 1941 05
Start to Bottom (# months) 4 27 39 39 39 39 485
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2024 04 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 1981 09
Bottom to End (# months) 2 8 8 8 8 8 53
End (yyyy mm) - - - - - - 1986 02
Longest negative period (# months)
12* 36* 60* 120* 230 245 622
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 07 2021 07 2019 07 2014 07 2004 09 2003 06 1932 08
Period End (yyyy mm) 2024 06 2024 06 2024 06 2024 06 2023 10 2023 10 1984 05
Annualized Return (%) -0.40 -7.69 -4.26 -1.47 0.00 -0.02 0.00
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Standard Deviation (%) 7.32 7.34 6.33 5.00 4.39 4.24 4.36
Sharpe Ratio -0.38 -0.83 -0.36 -0.01 0.36 0.49 0.11
Sortino Ratio -0.60 -1.25 -0.52 -0.01 0.51 0.67 0.16
Ulcer Index 1.93 10.66 8.88 6.39 4.60 3.81 2.36
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.35 -0.42 -0.04 0.26 0.68 1.02 1.03
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.54 -0.19 -0.02 0.08 0.17 0.25 0.26
Positive Months (%)
41.66 38.88 46.66 51.66 60.00 63.88 68.24
Positive Months 5 14 28 62 144 230 1257
Negative Months 7 22 32 58 96 130 585
LONG TERM RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 1.31 4.93 7.48 13.97
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 0.65 0.65 0.65
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized -1.47 3.12 4.88 9.65
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized -1.88 -1.88 -4.36
TIMEFRAMES
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
··· Over the latest 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 18.18 10.24 8.18 7.48 5.97 4.34
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -15.59 -5.59 -0.50 0.65 2.67
Positive Periods (%) 82.8 92.3 97.6 100.0 100.0 100.0
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 15.26 7.76 5.60 4.88 3.63 1.76
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -21.67 -10.70 -4.26 -1.88 0.09
Positive Periods (%) 69.9 83.3 90.0 88.3 100.0 100.0
95% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative
1.65 2.40 2.76 2.72 9.61 0.00 0.00 0.00
95% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) 2.16 3.28 4.01 8.85 12.51 0.00 0.00 0.00
99% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative
2.49 3.85 4.80 13.11 14.46 1.33 0.00 0.00
99% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) 3.02 4.77 6.11 15.07 17.20 1.96 0.00 0.00
Short term VaRs: analytical | 1+ year VaRs: historical data
Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) 88.06 27.48 18.40 10.07 5.74 5.38
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) --- --- --- --- 0.11 2.20
% based on initial capital, inflation-adj. monthly withdrawals afterwards | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
··· All available data (Jan 1871 - Jun 2024)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 34.57 19.06 20.18 13.97 10.77 8.93
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -15.59 -5.59 -0.50 0.65 1.73 2.18
Positive Periods (%) 86.2 98.0 99.5 100.0 100.0 100.0
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 30.24 17.38 16.54 9.65 7.77 5.89
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -21.67 -13.89 -12.11 -4.36 -2.05 -1.14
Positive Periods (%) 64.0 73.1 73.0 74.1 80.5 85.3
95% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative
1.70 2.47 2.83 1.72 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
95% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) 2.22 3.37 4.11 4.18 1.84 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
99% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative
2.55 3.95 4.93 5.92 8.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
99% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) 3.10 4.90 6.27 9.50 12.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Short term VaRs: analytical | 1+ year VaRs: historical data
Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) 88.06 26.15 14.07 7.49 3.66 2.46
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) --- --- --- --- --- ---
% based on initial capital, inflation-adj. monthly withdrawals afterwards | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio.
  • Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
  • Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
  • Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
  • Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
  • Value at Risk (VaR): it's an evaluation of a cumulative worst-case loss (in absolute value), associated with a probability (95%-99%) and a time horizon. For short term, it's calculated based on the expected return and standard deviation, assuming a normal distribution of monthly returns. For long term is retrieved by the historical rolling return data.
  • Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR): it represents the average expected loss if that worst-case threshold (95%-99%) is ever crossed.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money in any case (money amount withdrawal).
    For instance: Your initial invested capital is 100.000$; withdrawal rate (annualized) is 4%. This means that, in the first month, you will withdraw 100.000 * 4% * 1/12 = 333.33$. The second month, you’ll withdraw 333.33$ plus the inflation monthly rate. You’ll continue adjusting your withdraw monthly for inflation.
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.
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Correlations as of Jun 30, 2024

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of two assets move in relation to each other. It is a statistical measure that describes the extent to which the returns of one asset are related to the returns of another asset.

The following table shows the monthly correlations of Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND) ETF vs the main Asset Classes, over different timeframes. Columns are sortable (click on table header to sort).

VANGUARD TOTAL BOND MARKET (BND) ETF
Monthly correlations as of 30 June 2024
Swipe left to see all data
Correlation vs BND
Asset Class 1 Year 5 Years 10 Years 30 Years Since
Jan 1992
VTI
US Total Stock Market
0.84
0.57
0.40
0.16
0.17
SPY
US Large Cap Blend
0.83
0.58
0.40
0.17
0.18
IJH
US Mid Cap Blend
0.79
0.48
0.34
0.13
0.14
IJR
US Small Cap Blend
0.82
0.44
0.28
0.08
0.09
VNQ
US REITs
0.92
0.63
0.59
0.32
0.33
QQQ
US Technology
0.84
0.64
0.45
0.10
0.11
PFF
US Preferred Stocks
0.84
0.66
0.63
0.36
0.36
EFA
EAFE Stocks
0.82
0.60
0.44
0.18
0.19
VT
World All Countries
0.84
0.60
0.43
0.17
0.18
EEM
Emerging Markets
0.60
0.56
0.42
0.13
0.15
TLT
US Long Term Treasuries
0.99
0.87
0.87
0.85
0.85
BIL
US Cash
0.23
0.09
0.07
0.14
0.14
TIP
US TIPS
0.98
0.85
0.84
0.82
0.83
LQD
US Invest. Grade Bonds
0.99
0.96
0.95
0.87
0.88
HYG
US High Yield Bonds
0.96
0.69
0.57
0.39
0.40
CWB
US Convertible Bonds
0.88
0.53
0.41
0.19
0.20
BNDX
International Bonds
0.95
0.89
0.87
0.67
0.68
EMB
Emerg. Market Bonds
0.92
0.74
0.71
0.50
0.50
GLD
Gold
0.17
0.46
0.45
0.30
0.28
DBC
Commodities
-0.32
-0.07
-0.10
0.03
0.04
Terms and Definitions
Correlation values range between -1 and +1
  • A correlation of +1 indicates that the returns of the two assets move in perfect synchrony; when one asset's returns go up, the other asset's returns also go up by the same percentage, and vice versa. This perfect positive correlation implies that the assets perform similarly in different market conditions.
  • A correlation of -1 indicates a perfect inverse relationship between the returns of the two assets. When one asset's returns go up, the other asset's returns go down by the same percentage. This perfect negative correlation suggests that the assets move in opposite directions, providing a diversification benefit by reducing overall portfolio risk.
  • A correlation of 0 means that there is no linear relationship between the returns of the two assets. The returns of one asset do not predict the returns of the other.
Learn about historical correlations here: see how the main asset classes relate to each other.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

VANGUARD TOTAL BOND MARKET (BND) ETF
Drawdown periods
Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 July 1994 - 30 June 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 30 June 2024 (~154 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Returns

( more details)

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

VANGUARD TOTAL BOND MARKET (BND) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 July 1994 - 30 June 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 30 June 2024 (~154 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

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If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND) ETF: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND) ETF?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.

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For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.

Monthly Returns

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND) ETF over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

VANGUARD TOTAL BOND MARKET (BND) ETF
Monthly Returns Distribution
Data Source: 1 July 1994 - 30 June 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 30 June 2024 (~154 years)
230 Positive Months (64%) - 130 Negative Months (36%)
1257 Positive Months (68%) - 585 Negative Months (32%)

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Investment Returns, up to December 2007, have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets.
You can find additional information on extended Data Sources here.

The first official book of
Build wealth
with Lazy Portfolios and Passive Investing