Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND): Historical Returns

Data Source: from January 1871 to March 2024 (~153 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 March 2024
Live Update: Apr 17 2024
Category: Fixed Income
Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND) ETF
ETF • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
0.48%
1 Day
Apr 17 2024
2.10%
Current Month
April 2024

In the last 30 Years, the Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND) ETF obtained a 4.30% compound annual return, with a 4.21% standard deviation.

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The ETF is related to the following investment themes:

  • Asset Class: Bond
  • Region: North America
  • Country: U.S.
  • Bond - Duration: All-Term

The Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND) ETF is part of the following Lazy Portfolios:

Portfolio Name Author BND Weight Currency
Total Bond US 100.00% USD
Stocks/Bonds 20/80 80.00% USD
Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Momentum 80.00% USD
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 60.00% USD
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Momentum 60.00% USD
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 with Bitcoin 59.00% USD
LifeStrategy Income Fund Vanguard 56.00% USD
Lifepath Fund iShares 50.82% USD
All Country World Bonds 50.00% USD
LifeStrategy Conservative Growth Vanguard 42.00% USD
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 40.00% USD
Coffeehouse Bill Schultheis 40.00% USD
Conservative Income Charles Schwab 40.00% USD
All Country World 20/80 40.00% USD
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Momentum 40.00% USD
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 with Bitcoin 39.00% USD
Talmud Portfolio Roger Gibson 33.33% USD
All Country World 40/60 30.00% USD
Simple and Cheap Time Inc 30.00% USD
Tilt Toward Value Time Inc 30.00% USD
LifeStrategy Moderate Growth Vanguard 28.00% USD
Simple Path to Wealth JL Collins 25.00% USD
Marc Faber Portfolio Marc Faber 25.00% USD
Ivy Portfolio Mebane Faber 20.00% USD
Core Four Rick Ferri 20.00% USD
Three Funds Bogleheads 20.00% USD
Stocks/Bonds 80/20 20.00% USD
All Country World 60/40 20.00% USD
Jane Bryant Quinn Portfolio Jane Bryant Quinn 20.00% USD
Nano Portfolio John Wasik 20.00% USD
Stocks/Bonds 80/20 Momentum 20.00% USD
Robo Advisor 50 Betterment 14.70% USD
Five Asset Roger Gibson 14.00% USD
LifeStrategy Growth Fund Vanguard 14.00% USD
Four Funds Bogleheads 10.00% USD
Second Grader's Starter Paul Farrell 10.00% USD
Gone Fishin' Portfolio Alexander Green 10.00% USD
All Country World 80/20 10.00% USD
Gretchen Tai Portfolio Gretchen Tai 10.00% USD
Robo Advisor 20 Betterment 7.60% USD
Robo Advisor 80 Betterment 6.80% USD
Dedalo Eleven Dedalo Invest 6.00% USD
Robo Advisor 10 Betterment 3.80% USD
Robo Advisor 90 Betterment 3.50% USD

Investment Returns as of Mar 31, 2024

The Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND) ETF guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:
  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • the reinvestment of dividends.
  • the actual US Inflation rates.
VANGUARD TOTAL BOND MARKET (BND) ETF
Consolidated returns as of 31 March 2024
Live Update: Apr 17 2024
Swipe left to see all data
  Chg (%) Return (%) Return (%) as of Mar 31, 2024
  1 Day Time ET(*) Apr 2024 1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~153Y)
Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND) ETF 0.48 -2.10 0.85 5.87 1.62 0.32 1.49 4.30 4.49
US Inflation Adjusted return 0.47 4.20 -1.79 -3.72 -1.31 1.72 2.31
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1871
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Mar 2024. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 3.48% , 5Y: 4.19% , 10Y: 2.84% , 30Y: 2.54%

In 2023, the Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND) ETF granted a 3.20% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND) ETF: Dividend Yield page.

Capital Growth as of Mar 31, 2024

An investment of 1$, since April 1994, now would be worth 3.54$, with a total return of 253.70% (4.30% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 1.67$, with a net total return of 66.64% (1.72% annualized).
An investment of 1$, since January 1871, now would be worth 834.28$, with a total return of 83327.56% (4.49% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 33.34$, with a net total return of 3234.25% (2.31% annualized).

Investment Metrics as of Mar 31, 2024

Metrics of Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND) ETF, updated as of 31 March 2024.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • the reinvestment of dividends.
  • the actual US Inflation rates.
VANGUARD TOTAL BOND MARKET (BND) ETF
Advanced Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 31 March 2024 (~153 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of Mar 31, 2024
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
(~153Y)
Investment Return (%) 0.85 -0.69 5.87 1.62 -2.52 0.32 1.49 2.85 4.30 4.49
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) details 0.47 -1.80 4.20 -1.79 -7.72 -3.72 -1.31 0.25 1.72 2.31
US Inflation (%) 0.38 1.13 1.61 3.48 5.63 4.19 2.84 2.59 2.54 2.12
Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -6.02 -16.55 -17.28 -17.28 -17.28 -17.28 -17.28
Start to Recovery (# months) details 8 32* 44* 44* 44* 44* 44*
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 05 2021 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08
Start to Bottom (# months) 6 15 27 27 27 27 27
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10
Bottom to End (# months) 2 17 17 17 17 17 17
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 - - - - - -
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
Start to Recovery (# months) details
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 05 2021 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08
Start to Bottom (# months) 6 15 27 27 27 27 27
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10
Bottom to End (# months) 2 17 17 17 17 17 17
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 - - - - - -
Longest negative period (# months) details 8 36* 58* 90 90 90 90
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 04 2021 04 2019 06 2016 05 2016 05 2016 05 2016 05
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 11 2024 03 2024 03 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10
Annualized Return (%) -1.77 -2.52 -0.04 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -7.40 -26.10 -30.41 -30.41 -30.41 -30.41 -48.08
Start to Recovery (# months) details 11* 32* 44* 44* 44* 44* 165
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 05 2021 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 1916 03
Start to Bottom (# months) 6 27 39 39 39 39 52
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 1920 06
Bottom to End (# months) 5 5 5 5 5 5 113
End (yyyy mm) - - - - - - 1929 11
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
-46.74
Start to Recovery (# months) details 538
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 05 2021 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 1941 05
Start to Bottom (# months) 6 27 39 39 39 39 485
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 1981 09
Bottom to End (# months) 5 5 5 5 5 5 53
End (yyyy mm) - - - - - - 1986 02
Longest negative period (# months) details 12* 36* 60* 120* 235 245 622
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 04 2021 04 2019 04 2014 04 2004 04 2003 06 1932 08
Period End (yyyy mm) 2024 03 2024 03 2024 03 2024 03 2023 10 2023 10 1984 05
Annualized Return (%) -1.79 -7.72 -3.72 -1.31 -0.04 -0.02 0.00
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Standard Deviation (%) 6.80 7.18 6.26 4.92 4.38 4.21 4.36
Sharpe Ratio -0.53 -0.70 -0.25 0.05 0.34 0.48 0.11
Sortino Ratio -0.93 -1.05 -0.36 0.08 0.48 0.67 0.17
Ulcer Index 2.37 10.17 8.48 6.11 4.41 3.65 2.31
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.24 -0.35 0.05 0.30 0.65 1.02 1.03
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.27 -0.15 0.02 0.09 0.16 0.25 0.26
% Positive Months details 33% 41% 46% 52% 59% 63% 68%
Positive Months 4 15 28 63 143 229 1255
Negative Months 8 21 32 57 97 131 584
LONG TERM RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 1.49 4.93 7.48 13.97
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 0.65 0.65 0.65
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized -1.31 3.12 4.88 9.65
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized -1.88 -1.88 -4.36
ROLLING PERIODS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Over the latest 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 18.18 10.24 8.18 7.48 5.97 4.30
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -15.59 -5.59 -0.50 0.65 2.67
% Positive Periods 83% 93% 98% 100% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 88.06 27.48 19.12 10.09 5.74 5.25
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - - 0.11 2.10
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 15.26 7.76 5.60 4.88 3.63 1.72
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -21.67 -10.70 -4.19 -1.88 0.09
% Positive Periods 70% 84% 91% 89% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 88.06 27.48 19.12 10.09 5.74 5.25
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - - 0.11 2.10
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Over all the available data source (Jan 1871 - Mar 2024)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 34.57 19.06 20.18 13.97 10.77 8.93
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -15.59 -5.59 -0.50 0.65 1.73 2.18
% Positive Periods 86% 98% 99% 100% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 88.06 26.15 14.07 7.49 3.66 2.46
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - - - -
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 30.24 17.38 16.54 9.65 7.77 5.89
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -21.67 -13.89 -12.11 -4.36 -2.05 -1.14
% Positive Periods 64% 73% 73% 74% 80% 85%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 88.06 26.15 14.07 7.49 3.66 2.46
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - - - -
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio.
  • Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
  • Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
  • Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
  • Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money in any case (money amount withdrawal).
    For instance: Your initial invested capital is 100.000$; withdrawal rate (annualized) is 4%. This means that, in the first month, you will withdraw 100.000 * 4% * 1/12 = 333.33$. The second month, you’ll withdraw 333.33$ plus the inflation monthly rate. You’ll continue adjusting your withdraw monthly for inflation.
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.

Correlations as of Mar 31, 2024

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.

Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1. If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.

Monthly correlations of Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND) ETF vs the main Asset Classes, over different timeframes. Columns are sortable (click on table header to sort).

VANGUARD TOTAL BOND MARKET (BND) ETF
Monthly correlations as of 31 March 2024
Swipe left to see all data
Correlation vs BND
Asset Class 1 Year 5 Years 10 Years 30 Years Since
Jan 1992
VTI
US Total Stock Market
0.73
0.52
0.38
0.15
0.16
SPY
US Large Cap
0.72
0.53
0.39
0.16
0.17
IJR
US Small Cap
0.73
0.40
0.26
0.08
0.08
VNQ
US REITs
0.86
0.60
0.58
0.31
0.32
QQQ
US Technology
0.61
0.58
0.43
0.10
0.10
PFF
Preferred Stocks
0.81
0.65
0.62
0.36
0.36
EFA
EAFE Stocks
0.80
0.57
0.43
0.17
0.18
VT
World All Countries
0.75
0.56
0.42
0.16
0.17
EEM
Emerging Markets
0.59
0.53
0.43
0.12
0.15
VGK
Europe
0.82
0.55
0.43
0.18
0.19
VPL
Pacific
0.75
0.57
0.42
0.16
0.17
FLLA
Latin America
0.71
0.32
0.24
0.08
0.08
TLT
Long Term Treasuries
0.98
0.86
0.87
0.85
0.85
BIL
US Cash
0.22
0.10
0.07
0.14
0.14
TIP
TIPS
0.97
0.85
0.84
0.82
0.83
LQD
Invest. Grade Bonds
0.99
0.96
0.94
0.87
0.87
HYG
High Yield Bonds
0.93
0.66
0.57
0.38
0.40
CWB
US Convertible Bonds
0.73
0.49
0.40
0.19
0.20
BNDX
International Bonds
0.95
0.89
0.88
0.67
0.68
EMB
Emerg. Market Bonds
0.89
0.73
0.71
0.50
0.50
GLD
Gold
0.29
0.48
0.46
0.31
0.29
DBC
Commodities
-0.15
-0.07
-0.10
0.03
0.04

If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

VANGUARD TOTAL BOND MARKET (BND) ETF
Drawdown periods
Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 April 1994 - 31 March 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 31 March 2024 (~153 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
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Rolling Returns

( more details)

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

VANGUARD TOTAL BOND MARKET (BND) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 April 1994 - 31 March 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 31 March 2024 (~153 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND) ETF: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND) ETF?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
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Monthly Returns

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND) ETF over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

VANGUARD TOTAL BOND MARKET (BND) ETF
Monthly Returns Distribution
Data Source: 1 April 1994 - 31 March 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 31 March 2024 (~153 years)
229 Positive Months (64%) - 131 Negative Months (36%)
1255 Positive Months (68%) - 584 Negative Months (32%)
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(Scroll down to see all data)
Investment Returns, up to December 2007, have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets.
You can find additional information on extended Data Sources here.

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