Data Source: from January 1985 to November 2023 (~39 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 November 2023
Live Update: Dec 01 2023
Consolidated Returns as of 30 November 2023
Live Update: Dec 01 2023
PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
0.80%
1 Day
Dec 01 2023
0.80%
Current Month
December 2023
The Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio is a Very High Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 4 ETFs.
It's exposed for 80% on the Stock Market.
In the last 30 Years, the Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio obtained a 7.79% compound annual return, with a 12.45% standard deviation.
Table of contents
Asset Allocation and ETFs
The Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio has the following asset allocation:
80% Stocks
20% Fixed Income
0% Commodities
The Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:
| Weight (%) | Ticker | Currency | ETF Name | Investment Themes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50.00 |
VTI
|
USD | Vanguard Total Stock Market | Equity, U.S., Large Cap |
| 30.00 |
VEU
|
USD | Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US | Equity, Global ex-US, Large Cap |
| 10.00 |
TIP
|
USD | iShares TIPS Bond | Bond, U.S., All-Term |
| 10.00 |
BND
|
USD | Vanguard Total Bond Market | Bond, U.S., All-Term |
Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.
Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Nov 30, 2023
The Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.
Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:
- no fees or capital gain taxes.
- a rebalancing of the components at every January 1st. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
- the reinvestment of dividends.
BOGLEHEADS FOUR FUNDS PORTFOLIO
Consolidated returns as of 30 November 2023
Live Update: Dec 01 2023
Swipe left to see all data
| Chg (%) | Return (%) | Return (%) as of Nov 30, 2023 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Day | Time ET(*) | Dec 2023 | 1M | 6M | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | 30Y |
MAX
(~39Y) |
|||
| Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio | 0.80 | 0.80 | 7.99 | 6.46 | 8.98 | 7.89 | 7.14 | 7.79 | 9.48 | |||
| US Inflation Adjusted return | 7.99 | 5.23 | 5.45 | 3.67 | 4.20 | 5.14 | 6.50 | |||||
| Components | ||||||||||||
|
VTI
|
USD | Vanguard Total Stock Market | 0.84 | Dec 01 2023 | 0.84 | 9.42 | 10.04 | 12.72 | 11.71 | 11.16 | 9.90 | 11.00 |
|
VEU
|
USD | Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US | 0.83 | Dec 01 2023 | 0.83 | 8.23 | 5.00 | 8.02 | 5.37 | 3.75 | 5.13 | 7.64 |
|
TIP
|
USD | iShares TIPS Bond | 0.51 | Dec 01 2023 | 0.51 | 2.77 | -1.03 | -0.52 | 2.25 | 1.70 | 4.90 | 6.69 |
|
BND
|
USD | Vanguard Total Bond Market | 0.82 | Dec 01 2023 | 0.82 | 4.54 | -0.60 | 0.97 | 0.72 | 1.33 | 4.12 | 5.68 |
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1985
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Oct 2023.
Waiting for updates, inflation of Nov 2023 is set to 0%.
Current inflation (annualized) is
1Y: 3.35%
, 5Y: 4.07%
, 10Y: 2.82%
, 30Y: 2.52%
Live update: World Markets and Indexes
In 2022, the Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio granted a 2.25% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.
Capital Growth as of Nov 30, 2023
An investment of 1$, since December 1993,
now would be worth 9.50$, with a total return of 850.37% (7.79% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 4.50$, with a net total return of 350.37% (5.14% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 4.50$, with a net total return of 350.37% (5.14% annualized).
An investment of 1$, since January 1985,
now would be worth 33.90$, with a total return of 3289.51% (9.48% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 11.60$, with a net total return of 1060.05% (6.50% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 11.60$, with a net total return of 1060.05% (6.50% annualized).
Readings that may interest you
Portfolio Metrics as of Nov 30, 2023
Metrics of Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio, updated as of 30 November 2023.
Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
- no fees or capital gain taxes.
- a rebalancing of the components at every January 1st. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
- the reinvestment of dividends.
BOGLEHEADS FOUR FUNDS PORTFOLIO
Advanced Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 1985 - 30 November 2023 (~39 years)
Swipe left to see all data
| Metrics as of Nov 30, 2023 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y |
MAX
(~39Y) |
|
| Investment Return (%) | 7.99 | 1.15 | 6.46 | 8.98 | 4.23 | 7.89 | 7.14 | 7.61 | 7.79 | 9.48 |
| Infl. Adjusted Return (%) details | 7.99 | 0.94 | 5.23 | 5.45 | -1.43 | 3.67 | 4.20 | 4.90 | 5.14 | 6.50 |
| US Inflation (%) | 0.00 | 0.21 | 1.17 | 3.35 | 5.74 | 4.07 | 2.82 | 2.59 | 2.52 | 2.79 |
| Waiting for updates, inflation of Nov 2023 is temporarily set to 0%. Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized. | ||||||||||
|
DRAWDOWN
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
|
1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y | MAX | |||
| Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) | -8.64 | -23.20 | -23.20 | -23.20 | -44.08 | -44.08 | -44.08 | |||
| Start to Recovery (# months) details | 4* | 23* | 23* | 23* | 42 | 42 | 42 | |||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2023 08 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2007 11 | 2007 11 | 2007 11 | |||
| Start to Bottom (# months) | 3 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 16 | 16 | |||
| Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2023 10 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2009 02 | 2009 02 | 2009 02 | |||
| Bottom to End (# months) | 1 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 26 | 26 | 26 | |||
| End (yyyy mm) | - | - | - | - | 2011 04 | 2011 04 | 2011 04 | |||
| Longest Drawdown Depth (%) |
same as deepest |
same as deepest |
same as deepest |
same as deepest |
same as deepest |
-32.45 | -32.45 | |||
| Start to Recovery (# months) details | 56 | 56 | ||||||||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2023 08 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2007 11 | 2000 04 | 2000 04 | |||
| Start to Bottom (# months) | 3 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 30 | 30 | |||
| Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2023 10 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2009 02 | 2002 09 | 2002 09 | |||
| Bottom to End (# months) | 1 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 26 | 26 | 26 | |||
| End (yyyy mm) | - | - | - | - | 2011 04 | 2004 11 | 2004 11 | |||
| Longest negative period (# months) details | 9 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 63 | 118 | 118 | |||
| Period Start (yyyy mm) | 2023 02 | 2021 03 | 2021 03 | 2021 03 | 2003 12 | 1999 05 | 1999 05 | |||
| Period End (yyyy mm) | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 2009 02 | 2009 02 | 2009 02 | |||
| Annualized Return (%) | -2.17 | -0.41 | -0.41 | -0.41 | -0.84 | -0.23 | -0.23 | |||
| Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress | ||||||||||
| Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) | -9.23 | -27.88 | -27.88 | -27.88 | -44.94 | -44.94 | -44.94 | |||
| Start to Recovery (# months) details | 4* | 27* | 27* | 27* | 63 | 63 | 63 | |||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2023 08 | 2021 09 | 2021 09 | 2021 09 | 2007 11 | 2007 11 | 2007 11 | |||
| Start to Bottom (# months) | 3 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 16 | |||
| Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2023 10 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2009 02 | 2009 02 | 2009 02 | |||
| Bottom to End (# months) | 1 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 47 | 47 | 47 | |||
| End (yyyy mm) | - | - | - | - | 2013 01 | 2013 01 | 2013 01 | |||
| Longest Drawdown Depth (%) | -3.49 |
same as deepest |
same as deepest |
same as deepest |
same as deepest |
-36.11 | -36.11 | |||
| Start to Recovery (# months) details | 5 | 70 | 70 | |||||||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2023 02 | 2021 09 | 2021 09 | 2021 09 | 2007 11 | 2000 04 | 2000 04 | |||
| Start to Bottom (# months) | 1 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 16 | 30 | 30 | |||
| Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2023 02 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2009 02 | 2002 09 | 2002 09 | |||
| Bottom to End (# months) | 4 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 47 | 40 | 40 | |||
| End (yyyy mm) | 2023 06 | - | - | - | 2013 01 | 2006 01 | 2006 01 | |||
| Longest negative period (# months) details | 11 | 36* | 47 | 58 | 68 | 141 | 141 | |||
| Period Start (yyyy mm) | 2022 12 | 2020 12 | 2019 12 | 2017 12 | 2006 02 | 2000 01 | 2000 01 | |||
| Period End (yyyy mm) | 2023 10 | 2023 11 | 2023 10 | 2022 09 | 2011 09 | 2011 09 | 2011 09 | |||
| Annualized Return (%) | -2.57 | -1.43 | 0.00 | -0.10 | -0.49 | -0.02 | -0.02 | |||
| Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress | ||||||||||
|
RISK INDICATORS
|
1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y | MAX | |||
| Standard Deviation (%) | 13.87 | 14.19 | 15.26 | 12.26 | 12.72 | 12.45 | 12.44 | |||
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.30 | 0.16 | 0.41 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.45 | 0.44 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.45 | 0.22 | 0.54 | 0.67 | 0.65 | 0.58 | 0.58 | |||
| Ulcer Index | 3.35 | 10.00 | 8.35 | 6.41 | 9.89 | 10.71 | 9.70 | |||
| Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation | 0.65 | 0.30 | 0.52 | 0.58 | 0.60 | 0.63 | 0.76 | |||
| Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown | 1.04 | 0.18 | 0.34 | 0.31 | 0.17 | 0.18 | 0.21 | |||
| % Positive Months details | 50% | 58% | 61% | 65% | 63% | 63% | 65% | |||
| Positive Months | 6 | 21 | 37 | 79 | 153 | 227 | 304 | |||
| Negative Months | 6 | 15 | 23 | 41 | 87 | 133 | 163 | |||
|
LONG TERM RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
|
1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y | MAX | |||
| Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized | 7.14 | 12.28 | 12.28 | 14.19 | ||||||
| Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized | 5.12 | 0.52 | 0.52 | |||||||
| Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized | 4.20 | 10.34 | 10.34 | 10.72 | ||||||
| Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized | 3.28 | -2.01 | -2.01 | |||||||
|
ROLLING PERIOD RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
|
1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y | MAX | |||
| Over the latest 30Y | ||||||||||
| Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | 48.60 | 22.28 | 18.54 | 12.28 | 8.59 | 7.79 | ||||
| Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | -37.94 | -11.70 | -2.51 | 0.52 | 4.72 | |||||
| % Positive Periods | 77% | 84% | 97% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||||
| Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | 45.48 | 19.44 | 16.16 | 10.34 | 6.20 | 5.14 | ||||
| Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | -38.08 | -13.83 | -5.02 | -2.01 | 2.59 | |||||
| % Positive Periods | 71% | 80% | 83% | 95% | 100% | 100% | ||||
| Over all the available data source (Jan 1985 - Nov 2023) | ||||||||||
| Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | 49.11 | 25.00 | 22.58 | 14.19 | 11.80 | 10.18 | ||||
| Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | -37.94 | -11.70 | -2.51 | 0.52 | 4.72 | 7.37 | ||||
| % Positive Periods | 80% | 88% | 98% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||||
| Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | 46.80 | 21.26 | 18.24 | 10.72 | 8.55 | 7.27 | ||||
| Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | -38.08 | -13.83 | -5.02 | -2.01 | 2.59 | 4.72 | ||||
| % Positive Periods | 74% | 84% | 87% | 97% | 100% | 100% | ||||
|
WITHDRAWAL RATES (WR)
|
1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y | MAX | |||
| Safe WR (%) | 33.47 | 23.03 | 12.54 | 7.88 | 6.98 | 10.62 | ||||
| Perpetual WR (%) | 0.00 | 3.54 | 4.03 | 4.67 | 4.89 | 6.10 | ||||
- Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio
- Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
- Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed
- Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean
- Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return
- Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation)
- Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio
- Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame
- Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
- Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the original portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money (dollar amount withdrawal).
- Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year, while retaining the inflation adjusted portfolio balance (percentage withdrawal).
Analyze your Portfolio: Backtest Now!
Explore historical data since 1871 and fine-tune your investment strategy for better results.
Explore historical data since 1871 and fine-tune your investment strategy for better results.
Portfolio Components Correlation
Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.
Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1. If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS
Monthly correlations as of 30 November 2023
Swipe left to see all data
| Asset |
VTI
|
VEU
|
TIP
|
BND
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
VTI
|
-
|
0.91
|
0.76
|
0.80
|
|
VEU
|
0.91
|
-
|
0.83
|
0.87
|
|
TIP
|
0.76
|
0.83
|
-
|
0.95
|
|
BND
|
0.80
|
0.87
|
0.95
|
-
|
| Asset |
VTI
|
VEU
|
TIP
|
BND
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
VTI
|
-
|
0.89
|
0.60
|
0.48
|
|
VEU
|
0.89
|
-
|
0.56
|
0.54
|
|
TIP
|
0.60
|
0.56
|
-
|
0.85
|
|
BND
|
0.48
|
0.54
|
0.85
|
-
|
| Asset |
VTI
|
VEU
|
TIP
|
BND
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
VTI
|
-
|
0.86
|
0.47
|
0.37
|
|
VEU
|
0.86
|
-
|
0.47
|
0.42
|
|
TIP
|
0.47
|
0.47
|
-
|
0.84
|
|
BND
|
0.37
|
0.42
|
0.84
|
-
|
| Asset |
VTI
|
VEU
|
TIP
|
BND
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
VTI
|
-
|
0.84
|
0.20
|
0.16
|
|
VEU
|
0.84
|
-
|
0.21
|
0.16
|
|
TIP
|
0.20
|
0.21
|
-
|
0.83
|
|
BND
|
0.16
|
0.16
|
0.83
|
-
|
| Asset |
VTI
|
VEU
|
TIP
|
BND
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
VTI
|
-
|
0.73
|
0.23
|
0.20
|
|
VEU
|
0.73
|
-
|
0.22
|
0.19
|
|
TIP
|
0.23
|
0.22
|
-
|
0.88
|
|
BND
|
0.20
|
0.19
|
0.88
|
-
|
If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.
Drawdowns
A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.
BOGLEHEADS FOUR FUNDS PORTFOLIO
Drawdown periods
Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 December 1993 - 30 November 2023 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1985 - 30 November 2023 (~39 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period |
Recovery period |
Total |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months | Ulcer Index |
| -44.08% | Nov 2007 | Feb 2009 | 16 | Apr 2011 | 26 | 42 | 20.37 |
| -32.45% | Apr 2000 | Sep 2002 | 30 | Nov 2004 | 26 | 56 | 17.46 |
| -23.20% | Jan 2022 | Sep 2022 | 9 | in progress | 14 | 23 | 12.39 |
| -17.11% | Jan 2020 | Mar 2020 | 3 | Jul 2020 | 4 | 7 | 7.73 |
| -15.64% | May 2011 | Sep 2011 | 5 | Mar 2012 | 6 | 11 | 7.01 |
| -12.43% | Jul 1998 | Aug 1998 | 2 | Nov 1998 | 3 | 5 | 6.63 |
| -10.69% | Feb 2018 | Dec 2018 | 11 | Apr 2019 | 4 | 15 | 4.28 |
| -10.05% | Jun 2015 | Feb 2016 | 9 | Jul 2016 | 5 | 14 | 5.32 |
| -6.92% | Apr 2012 | May 2012 | 2 | Sep 2012 | 4 | 6 | 3.06 |
| -5.19% | Feb 1994 | Mar 1994 | 2 | Aug 1994 | 5 | 7 | 3.22 |
| -4.69% | May 2019 | May 2019 | 1 | Jun 2019 | 1 | 2 | 2.71 |
| -4.68% | Aug 1997 | Aug 1997 | 1 | Sep 1997 | 1 | 2 | 2.70 |
| -4.18% | Sep 1994 | Nov 1994 | 3 | Mar 1995 | 4 | 7 | 2.31 |
| -4.05% | Oct 1997 | Oct 1997 | 1 | Jan 1998 | 3 | 4 | 2.18 |
| -4.01% | Sep 2020 | Oct 2020 | 2 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 3 | 2.32 |
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period |
Recovery period |
Total |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months | Ulcer Index |
| -44.94% | Nov 2007 | Feb 2009 | 16 | Jan 2013 | 47 | 63 | 19.09 |
| -36.11% | Apr 2000 | Sep 2002 | 30 | Jan 2006 | 40 | 70 | 19.25 |
| -27.88% | Sep 2021 | Sep 2022 | 13 | in progress | 14 | 27 | 16.53 |
| -17.47% | Jan 2020 | Mar 2020 | 3 | Aug 2020 | 5 | 8 | 7.42 |
| -12.72% | May 1998 | Aug 1998 | 4 | Nov 1998 | 3 | 7 | 6.00 |
| -11.89% | Feb 2018 | Dec 2018 | 11 | Oct 2019 | 10 | 21 | 4.82 |
| -10.12% | Mar 2015 | Feb 2016 | 12 | Dec 2016 | 10 | 22 | 4.63 |
| -6.18% | Feb 1994 | Nov 1994 | 10 | Apr 1995 | 5 | 15 | 4.07 |
| -4.86% | Aug 1997 | Aug 1997 | 1 | Feb 1998 | 6 | 7 | 2.67 |
| -4.21% | Jan 2000 | Jan 2000 | 1 | Mar 2000 | 2 | 3 | 2.43 |
| -4.19% | Sep 2020 | Oct 2020 | 2 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 3 | 2.43 |
| -3.99% | Jun 1996 | Jul 1996 | 2 | Sep 1996 | 2 | 4 | 2.18 |
| -3.68% | May 2006 | Jun 2006 | 2 | Sep 2006 | 3 | 5 | 2.56 |
| -3.32% | Jan 2014 | Jan 2014 | 1 | Feb 2014 | 1 | 2 | 1.92 |
| -3.21% | Jul 1999 | Sep 1999 | 3 | Oct 1999 | 1 | 4 | 1.80 |
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period |
Recovery period |
Total |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months | Ulcer Index |
| -44.08% | Nov 2007 | Feb 2009 | 16 | Apr 2011 | 26 | 42 | 20.37 |
| -32.45% | Apr 2000 | Sep 2002 | 30 | Nov 2004 | 26 | 56 | 17.46 |
| -23.20% | Jan 2022 | Sep 2022 | 9 | in progress | 14 | 23 | 12.39 |
| -19.18% | Sep 1987 | Nov 1987 | 3 | Jan 1989 | 14 | 17 | 8.92 |
| -17.11% | Jan 2020 | Mar 2020 | 3 | Jul 2020 | 4 | 7 | 7.73 |
| -15.64% | May 2011 | Sep 2011 | 5 | Mar 2012 | 6 | 11 | 7.01 |
| -15.56% | Jan 1990 | Sep 1990 | 9 | Feb 1991 | 5 | 14 | 8.00 |
| -12.43% | Jul 1998 | Aug 1998 | 2 | Nov 1998 | 3 | 5 | 6.63 |
| -10.69% | Feb 2018 | Dec 2018 | 11 | Apr 2019 | 4 | 15 | 4.28 |
| -10.05% | Jun 2015 | Feb 2016 | 9 | Jul 2016 | 5 | 14 | 5.32 |
| -6.92% | Apr 2012 | May 2012 | 2 | Sep 2012 | 4 | 6 | 3.06 |
| -5.19% | Feb 1994 | Mar 1994 | 2 | Aug 1994 | 5 | 7 | 3.22 |
| -5.02% | Sep 1986 | Oct 1986 | 2 | Jan 1987 | 3 | 5 | 3.06 |
| -4.87% | Jan 1992 | Mar 1992 | 3 | Nov 1992 | 8 | 11 | 2.49 |
| -4.69% | May 2019 | May 2019 | 1 | Jun 2019 | 1 | 2 | 2.71 |
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period |
Recovery period |
Total |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months | Ulcer Index |
| -44.94% | Nov 2007 | Feb 2009 | 16 | Jan 2013 | 47 | 63 | 19.09 |
| -36.11% | Apr 2000 | Sep 2002 | 30 | Jan 2006 | 40 | 70 | 19.25 |
| -27.88% | Sep 2021 | Sep 2022 | 13 | in progress | 14 | 27 | 16.53 |
| -19.88% | Sep 1987 | Nov 1987 | 3 | Jul 1989 | 20 | 23 | 9.21 |
| -19.76% | Jan 1990 | Sep 1990 | 9 | Dec 1991 | 15 | 24 | 9.20 |
| -17.47% | Jan 2020 | Mar 2020 | 3 | Aug 2020 | 5 | 8 | 7.42 |
| -12.72% | May 1998 | Aug 1998 | 4 | Nov 1998 | 3 | 7 | 6.00 |
| -11.89% | Feb 2018 | Dec 2018 | 11 | Oct 2019 | 10 | 21 | 4.82 |
| -10.12% | Mar 2015 | Feb 2016 | 12 | Dec 2016 | 10 | 22 | 4.63 |
| -6.18% | Feb 1994 | Nov 1994 | 10 | Apr 1995 | 5 | 15 | 4.07 |
| -5.82% | Jan 1992 | Mar 1992 | 3 | Feb 1993 | 11 | 14 | 3.44 |
| -5.54% | Sep 1986 | Oct 1986 | 2 | Jan 1987 | 3 | 5 | 3.47 |
| -4.86% | Aug 1997 | Aug 1997 | 1 | Feb 1998 | 6 | 7 | 2.67 |
| -4.60% | Sep 1993 | Nov 1993 | 3 | Jan 1994 | 2 | 5 | 2.07 |
| -4.21% | Jan 2000 | Jan 2000 | 1 | Mar 2000 | 2 | 3 | 2.43 |
Rolling Returns
( more details)
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
BOGLEHEADS FOUR FUNDS PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 December 1993 - 30 November 2023 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1985 - 30 November 2023 (~39 years)
Swipe left to see all data
| Rolling Period |
Worst Period |
15th Percentile |
50th Percentile |
85th Percentile |
Best Period |
Latest | Negative Periods |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ann. Return |
From To |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
From To |
Growth of 1$ |
|||
| 1Y | -37.94 |
03/2008 02/2009 |
0.62$ | -6.83 | 0.93$ | 11.24 | 1.11$ | 19.76 | 1.19$ | 48.60 |
03/2009 02/2010 |
1.48$ | 8.98 | 22.35% |
| 2Y | -20.48 |
03/2007 02/2009 |
0.63$ | -2.05 | 0.95$ | 10.72 | 1.22$ | 16.96 | 1.36$ | 33.36 |
03/2009 02/2011 |
1.77$ | -1.60 | 19.29% |
| 3Y | -11.70 |
04/2000 03/2003 |
0.68$ | -0.10 | 0.99$ | 9.11 | 1.29$ | 14.92 | 1.51$ | 22.28 |
03/2009 02/2012 |
1.82$ | 4.23 | 15.38% |
| 5Y | -2.51 |
03/2004 02/2009 |
0.88$ | 2.13 | 1.11$ | 6.96 | 1.39$ | 13.01 | 1.84$ | 18.54 |
03/2009 02/2014 |
2.34$ | 7.89 | 2.33% |
| 7Y | 0.75 |
03/2002 02/2009 |
1.05$ | 5.12 | 1.41$ | 6.88 | 1.59$ | 9.38 | 1.87$ | 12.65 |
03/2009 02/2016 |
2.30$ | 8.36 | 0.00% |
| 10Y | 0.52 |
03/1999 02/2009 |
1.05$ | 5.42 | 1.69$ | 7.82 | 2.12$ | 9.18 | 2.40$ | 12.28 |
03/2009 02/2019 |
3.18$ | 7.14 | 0.00% |
| 15Y | 4.62 |
03/1994 02/2009 |
1.97$ | 5.69 | 2.29$ | 6.79 | 2.67$ | 7.72 | 3.05$ | 9.68 |
12/2008 11/2023 |
3.99$ | 9.68 | 0.00% |
| 20Y | 4.72 |
04/2000 03/2020 |
2.51$ | 6.11 | 3.27$ | 7.23 | 4.03$ | 8.17 | 4.80$ | 8.59 |
04/2003 03/2023 |
5.20$ | 7.61 | 0.00% |
| 30Y | 7.79 |
12/1993 11/2023 |
9.50$ | 7.79 | 9.50$ | 7.79 | 9.50$ | 7.79 | 9.50$ | 7.79 |
12/1993 11/2023 |
9.50$ | 7.79 | 0.00% |
| Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods | ||||||||||||||
Swipe left to see all data
| Rolling Period |
Worst Period |
15th Percentile |
50th Percentile |
85th Percentile |
Best Period |
Latest | Negative Periods |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ann. Return |
From To |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
From To |
Growth of 1$ |
|||
| 1Y | -38.08 |
03/2008 02/2009 |
0.61$ | -9.07 | 0.90$ | 8.29 | 1.08$ | 17.18 | 1.17$ | 45.48 |
03/2009 02/2010 |
1.45$ | 5.45 | 28.08% |
| 2Y | -22.13 |
03/2007 02/2009 |
0.60$ | -5.37 | 0.89$ | 7.70 | 1.15$ | 14.00 | 1.29$ | 30.58 |
03/2009 02/2011 |
1.70$ | -6.47 | 21.96% |
| 3Y | -13.83 |
04/2000 03/2003 |
0.63$ | -2.23 | 0.93$ | 6.73 | 1.21$ | 12.02 | 1.40$ | 19.44 |
03/2009 02/2012 |
1.70$ | -1.43 | 20.00% |
| 5Y | -5.02 |
03/2004 02/2009 |
0.77$ | -0.19 | 0.99$ | 5.02 | 1.27$ | 10.31 | 1.63$ | 16.16 |
03/2009 02/2014 |
2.11$ | 3.67 | 16.28% |
| 7Y | -1.76 |
03/2002 02/2009 |
0.88$ | 2.57 | 1.19$ | 4.32 | 1.34$ | 7.40 | 1.64$ | 10.88 |
03/2009 02/2016 |
2.06$ | 4.67 | 1.44% |
| 10Y | -2.01 |
03/1999 02/2009 |
0.81$ | 3.22 | 1.37$ | 5.27 | 1.67$ | 7.02 | 1.97$ | 10.34 |
03/2009 02/2019 |
2.67$ | 4.20 | 4.15% |
| 15Y | 2.08 |
03/1994 02/2009 |
1.36$ | 3.30 | 1.62$ | 4.36 | 1.89$ | 5.69 | 2.29$ | 7.32 |
02/2003 01/2018 |
2.88$ | 7.00 | 0.00% |
| 20Y | 2.59 |
04/2000 03/2020 |
1.66$ | 3.88 | 2.14$ | 4.90 | 2.60$ | 5.66 | 3.00$ | 6.20 |
11/2001 10/2021 |
3.32$ | 4.90 | 0.00% |
| 30Y | 5.14 |
12/1993 11/2023 |
4.50$ | 5.14 | 4.50$ | 5.14 | 4.50$ | 5.14 | 4.50$ | 5.14 |
12/1993 11/2023 |
4.50$ | 5.14 | 0.00% |
| Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods | ||||||||||||||
Swipe left to see all data
| Rolling Period |
Worst Period |
15th Percentile |
50th Percentile |
85th Percentile |
Best Period |
Latest | Negative Periods |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ann. Return |
From To |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
From To |
Growth of 1$ |
|||
| 1Y | -37.94 |
03/2008 02/2009 |
0.62$ | -3.74 | 0.96$ | 11.26 | 1.11$ | 21.56 | 1.21$ | 49.11 |
09/1985 08/1986 |
1.49$ | 8.98 | 19.08% |
| 2Y | -20.48 |
03/2007 02/2009 |
0.63$ | 0.67 | 1.01$ | 10.68 | 1.22$ | 17.17 | 1.37$ | 38.97 |
10/1985 09/1987 |
1.93$ | -1.60 | 14.64% |
| 3Y | -11.70 |
04/2000 03/2003 |
0.68$ | 2.72 | 1.08$ | 9.64 | 1.31$ | 15.16 | 1.52$ | 25.00 |
05/1985 04/1988 |
1.95$ | 4.23 | 11.57% |
| 5Y | -2.51 |
03/2004 02/2009 |
0.88$ | 2.94 | 1.15$ | 8.78 | 1.52$ | 13.76 | 1.90$ | 22.58 |
01/1985 12/1989 |
2.76$ | 7.89 | 1.72% |
| 7Y | 0.75 |
03/2002 02/2009 |
1.05$ | 5.28 | 1.43$ | 8.31 | 1.74$ | 11.73 | 2.17$ | 17.49 |
01/1985 12/1991 |
3.09$ | 8.36 | 0.00% |
| 10Y | 0.52 |
03/1999 02/2009 |
1.05$ | 5.83 | 1.76$ | 8.34 | 2.22$ | 11.57 | 2.98$ | 14.19 |
10/1985 09/1995 |
3.76$ | 7.14 | 0.00% |
| 15Y | 4.62 |
03/1994 02/2009 |
1.97$ | 5.93 | 2.37$ | 7.48 | 2.95$ | 9.48 | 3.89$ | 15.47 |
01/1985 12/1999 |
8.65$ | 9.68 | 0.00% |
| 20Y | 4.72 |
04/2000 03/2020 |
2.51$ | 6.55 | 3.55$ | 7.80 | 4.49$ | 9.20 | 5.81$ | 11.80 |
01/1985 12/2004 |
9.31$ | 7.61 | 0.00% |
| 30Y | 7.37 |
11/1993 10/2023 |
8.43$ | 7.80 | 9.52$ | 8.26 | 10.81$ | 8.74 | 12.35$ | 10.18 |
01/1985 12/2014 |
18.32$ | 7.79 | 0.00% |
| Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods | ||||||||||||||
Swipe left to see all data
| Rolling Period |
Worst Period |
15th Percentile |
50th Percentile |
85th Percentile |
Best Period |
Latest | Negative Periods |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ann. Return |
From To |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
From To |
Growth of 1$ |
|||
| 1Y | -38.08 |
03/2008 02/2009 |
0.61$ | -6.10 | 0.93$ | 8.21 | 1.08$ | 18.56 | 1.18$ | 46.80 |
09/1985 08/1986 |
1.46$ | 5.45 | 25.66% |
| 2Y | -22.13 |
03/2007 02/2009 |
0.60$ | -2.42 | 0.95$ | 7.41 | 1.15$ | 14.03 | 1.30$ | 35.18 |
05/1985 04/1987 |
1.82$ | -6.47 | 18.69% |
| 3Y | -13.83 |
04/2000 03/2003 |
0.63$ | -0.23 | 0.99$ | 6.71 | 1.21$ | 12.02 | 1.40$ | 21.26 |
05/1985 04/1988 |
1.78$ | -1.43 | 15.51% |
| 5Y | -5.02 |
03/2004 02/2009 |
0.77$ | 0.60 | 1.03$ | 5.88 | 1.33$ | 10.92 | 1.67$ | 18.24 |
01/1985 12/1989 |
2.31$ | 3.67 | 12.01% |
| 7Y | -1.76 |
03/2002 02/2009 |
0.88$ | 2.86 | 1.21$ | 5.71 | 1.47$ | 9.01 | 1.82$ | 13.05 |
01/1985 12/1991 |
2.35$ | 4.67 | 1.04% |
| 10Y | -2.01 |
03/1999 02/2009 |
0.81$ | 3.54 | 1.41$ | 5.71 | 1.74$ | 8.39 | 2.23$ | 10.72 |
10/1990 09/2000 |
2.76$ | 4.20 | 2.87% |
| 15Y | 2.08 |
03/1994 02/2009 |
1.36$ | 3.43 | 1.65$ | 5.06 | 2.09$ | 6.71 | 2.65$ | 11.92 |
01/1985 12/1999 |
5.41$ | 7.00 | 0.00% |
| 20Y | 2.59 |
04/2000 03/2020 |
1.66$ | 4.07 | 2.21$ | 5.23 | 2.77$ | 6.01 | 3.21$ | 8.55 |
01/1985 12/2004 |
5.15$ | 4.90 | 0.00% |
| 30Y | 4.72 |
11/1993 10/2023 |
3.99$ | 5.18 | 4.54$ | 5.54 | 5.04$ | 6.24 | 6.15$ | 7.27 |
01/1985 12/2014 |
8.21$ | 5.14 | 0.00% |
| Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods | ||||||||||||||
If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.
Seasonality
In which months is it better to invest in Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio?
Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Swipe left to see all data
| Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Average Gain Frequency |
1.70
40% |
-1.33
40% |
-0.84
80% |
1.88
80% |
-0.01
60% |
1.45
80% |
2.94
100% |
-0.17
40% |
-3.35
20% |
1.46
60% |
5.02
80% |
0.05
60% |
| Best |
6.8 2019 |
2.3 2019 |
2.8 2023 |
8.9 2020 |
4.1 2020 |
5.5 2019 |
6.2 2022 |
4.8 2020 |
1.6 2019 |
5.0 2022 |
9.8 2020 |
4.2 2020 |
| Worst |
-4.2 2022 |
-5.7 2020 |
-11.5 2020 |
-7.1 2022 |
-4.7 2019 |
-6.8 2022 |
0.2 2019 |
-3.8 2022 |
-8.5 2022 |
-2.5 2023 |
-1.9 2021 |
-5.9 2018 |
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1985 - Nov 2023
Swipe left to see all data
| Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Average Gain Frequency |
0.69
40% |
-0.01
50% |
0.13
70% |
1.45
90% |
0.50
80% |
0.79
70% |
2.21
90% |
-0.19
60% |
-1.97
40% |
0.83
60% |
3.07
80% |
0.18
60% |
| Best |
6.8 2019 |
4.3 2015 |
6.2 2016 |
8.9 2020 |
4.1 2020 |
5.5 2019 |
6.2 2022 |
4.8 2020 |
1.7 2017 |
5.9 2015 |
9.8 2020 |
4.2 2020 |
| Worst |
-4.3 2016 |
-5.7 2020 |
-11.5 2020 |
-7.1 2022 |
-4.7 2019 |
-6.8 2022 |
-1.5 2014 |
-5.5 2015 |
-8.5 2022 |
-6.5 2018 |
-1.9 2021 |
-5.9 2018 |
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1985 - Nov 2023
Swipe left to see all data
| Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Average Gain Frequency |
0.95
62% |
0.61
56% |
0.99
69% |
1.68
82% |
0.82
67% |
0.31
51% |
1.31
69% |
-0.18
59% |
-0.61
54% |
0.65
62% |
1.59
72% |
1.77
79% |
| Best |
10.2 1987 |
7.7 1986 |
7.7 1986 |
9.0 2009 |
8.3 1990 |
5.5 2019 |
7.8 1989 |
6.1 1986 |
7.8 2010 |
9.0 2011 |
9.8 2020 |
7.5 1991 |
| Worst |
-8.1 2009 |
-8.2 2009 |
-11.5 2020 |
-7.1 2022 |
-7.1 2010 |
-6.8 2022 |
-6.7 2002 |
-11.7 1998 |
-8.5 2022 |
-15.9 2008 |
-5.7 2000 |
-5.9 2018 |
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1985 - Nov 2023
Monthly Returns
This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.
BOGLEHEADS FOUR FUNDS PORTFOLIO
Monthly Returns Distribution
Data Source: 1 December 1993 - 30 November 2023 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1985 - 30 November 2023 (~39 years)
227 Positive Months (63%) - 133 Negative Months (37%)
304 Positive Months (65%) - 163 Negative Months (35%)
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(Scroll down to see all data)
Investment Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated.
They have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
In particular, the series derived from equivalent datasets are:
They have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
In particular, the series derived from equivalent datasets are:
- VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market, up to December 2001
- VEU - Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US, up to December 2007
- TIP - iShares TIPS Bond, up to December 2003
- BND - Vanguard Total Bond Market, up to December 2007
Portfolio efficiency
The following portfolios granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.
Swipe left to see all data
30 Years Stats (%) |
% Allocation |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | Return▾ | Dev.Std | Drawdown | Stocks | Bonds | Comm | ||
| Stocks/Bonds 80/20 Momentum | +10.76 | 12.35 | -43.61 | 80 | 20 | 0 | ||
| US Stocks Minimum Volatility | +9.58 | 13.72 | -43.27 | 100 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Momentum | +9.34 | 9.56 | -32.52 | 60 | 40 | 0 | ||
| Stocks/Bonds 80/20 | +9.02 | 12.49 | -41.09 | 80 | 20 | 0 | ||
| Simple Path to Wealth | +8.78 | 11.75 | -38.53 | 75 | 25 | 0 | ||
| Dedalo Four | +8.28 | 12.41 | -43.94 | 80 | 20 | 0 | ||
| Aim Bold Strategy | +8.24 | 9.93 | -30.09 | 45 | 40 | 15 | ||
| Late Sixties and Beyond | +8.13 | 11.69 | -41.80 | 71 | 29 | 0 | ||
| Weird Portfolio | +8.02 | 10.75 | -32.97 | 60 | 20 | 20 | ||
| Talmud Portfolio | +8.01 | 10.81 | -40.17 | 66.7 | 33.3 | 0 | ||
| Stocks/Bonds 60/40 | +7.99 | 9.61 | -30.55 | 60 | 40 | 0 | ||
| Yale Endowment | +7.98 | 10.99 | -39.48 | 70 | 30 | 0 | ||
| Seven Value | +7.96 | 11.31 | -41.22 | 71.5 | 28.5 | 0 | ||
| Couch Potato | +7.83 | 8.76 | -27.04 | 50 | 50 | 0 | ||
| Edge Select Moderately Aggressive | +7.83 | 11.16 | -38.23 | 69 | 31 | 0 | ||
| Four Funds | +7.79 | 12.45 | -44.08 | 80 | 20 | 0 | ||
Here's a list containing the Best Classic Portfolios, with the highest returns over 30 Years and Very High Risk categorization.
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30 Years Stats (%) |
% Allocation |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | Return▾ | Dev.Std | Drawdown | Stocks | Bonds | Comm | ||
| Technology | +13.75 | 24.01 | -81.08 | 100 | 0 | 0 | ||
| US Stocks Momentum | +12.01 | 15.28 | -53.85 | 100 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Stocks/Bonds 80/20 Momentum | +10.76 | 12.35 | -43.61 | 80 | 20 | 0 | ||
| US Stocks | +9.90 | 15.52 | -50.84 | 100 | 0 | 0 | ||
| US Stocks Value | +9.71 | 15.36 | -55.41 | 100 | 0 | 0 | ||
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