Roger Gibson Talmud Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns

Data Source: from January 1928 to January 2024 (~96 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 January 2024
Live Update: Feb 27 2024, 02:00PM Eastern Time
PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
0.03%
1 Day
Feb 27 2024, 02:00PM Eastern Time
1.08%
Current Month
February 2024

The Roger Gibson Talmud Portfolio is a High Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 3 ETFs.

It's exposed for 66.67% on the Stock Market.

In the last 30 Years, the Roger Gibson Talmud Portfolio obtained a 8.07% compound annual return, with a 10.85% standard deviation.

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Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Roger Gibson Talmud Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

66.67% Stocks
33.33% Fixed Income
0% Commodities

The Roger Gibson Talmud Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight (%) Ticker Currency ETF Name Investment Themes
33.34
VTI
USD Vanguard Total Stock Market Equity, U.S., Large Cap
33.33
VNQ
USD Vanguard Real Estate Real Estate, U.S.
33.33
BND
USD Vanguard Total Bond Market Bond, U.S., All-Term

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Jan 31, 2024

The Roger Gibson Talmud Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming: February 2024 return is calculated on the hypothesis of a newly built portfolio, with the starting asset allocation.
ROGER GIBSON TALMUD PORTFOLIO
Consolidated returns as of 31 January 2024
Live Update: Feb 27 2024, 02:00PM Eastern Time
Swipe left to see all data
  Chg (%) Return (%) Return (%) as of Jan 31, 2024
  1 Day Time ET(*) Feb 2024 1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~96Y)
Roger Gibson Talmud Portfolio 0.03 1.08 -1.37 3.22 5.59 6.40 6.87 8.07 7.75
US Inflation Adjusted return -1.67 1.54 2.41 2.14 3.98 5.40 4.57
Components
VTI
USD Vanguard Total Stock Market 0.09 02:00PM, Feb 27 2024 4.83 1.12 5.88 19.21 13.44 11.92 9.95 9.86
VNQ
USD Vanguard Real Estate 0.06 01:59PM, Feb 27 2024 0.05 -5.06 0.56 -3.87 3.85 6.36 8.40 6.97
BND
USD Vanguard Total Bond Market -0.05 02:00PM, Feb 27 2024 -1.64 -0.16 3.11 1.86 0.79 1.57 4.18 4.83
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1928
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Jan 2024. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 3.11% , 5Y: 4.16% , 10Y: 2.79% , 30Y: 2.53%

In 2023, the Roger Gibson Talmud Portfolio granted a 3.10% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Roger Gibson Talmud Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Capital Growth as of Jan 31, 2024

An investment of 1$, since February 1994, now would be worth 10.26$, with a total return of 926.48% (8.07% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 4.85$, with a net total return of 384.93% (5.40% annualized).
An investment of 1$, since January 1928, now would be worth 1306.88$, with a total return of 130588.44% (7.75% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 73.04$, with a net total return of 7203.80% (4.57% annualized).

Portfolio Metrics as of Jan 31, 2024

Metrics of Roger Gibson Talmud Portfolio, updated as of 31 January 2024.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
ROGER GIBSON TALMUD PORTFOLIO
Advanced Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 1928 - 31 January 2024 (~96 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of Jan 31, 2024
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
(~96Y)
Investment Return (%) -1.37 13.63 3.22 5.59 3.41 6.40 6.87 7.22 8.07 7.75
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) details -1.67 12.84 1.54 2.41 -2.13 2.14 3.98 4.53 5.40 4.57
US Inflation (%) 0.31 0.70 1.66 3.11 5.66 4.16 2.79 2.57 2.53 3.05
Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -9.16 -22.88 -22.88 -22.88 -40.17 -40.17 -57.05
Start to Recovery (# months) details 5 25* 25* 25* 41 41 89
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2007 06 2007 06 1929 09
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 9 9 9 21 21 33
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2009 02 1932 05
Bottom to End (# months) 2 16 16 16 20 20 56
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 - - - 2010 10 2010 10 1937 01
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
Start to Recovery (# months) details
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2007 06 2007 06 1929 09
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 9 9 9 21 21 33
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2009 02 1932 05
Bottom to End (# months) 2 16 16 16 20 20 56
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 - - - 2010 10 2010 10 1937 01
Longest negative period (# months) details 9 33 35 35 62 65 160
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 02 2021 02 2020 12 2020 12 2004 02 2003 10 1929 09
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2009 03 2009 02 1942 12
Annualized Return (%) -9.33 -0.98 -0.20 -0.20 -1.35 -0.26 0.00
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -10.02 -27.11 -27.11 -27.11 -42.21 -42.21 -45.76
Start to Recovery (# months) details 5 25* 25* 25* 49 49 46
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2007 02 2007 02 1929 09
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 22 22 22 25 25 33
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2009 02 2009 02 1932 05
Bottom to End (# months) 2 3 3 3 24 24 13
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 - - - 2011 02 2011 02 1933 06
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -4.54
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
-37.59
Start to Recovery (# months) details 6 96
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 02 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2007 02 2007 02 1972 12
Start to Bottom (# months) 4 22 22 22 25 25 22
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 05 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2009 02 2009 02 1974 09
Bottom to End (# months) 2 3 3 3 24 24 74
End (yyyy mm) 2023 07 - - - 2011 02 2011 02 1980 11
Longest negative period (# months) details 10 36* 57 70 70 118 225
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 02 2021 02 2019 02 2018 01 2018 01 1999 05 1956 04
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 11 2024 01 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2009 02 1974 12
Annualized Return (%) -1.88 -2.13 -0.31 -0.05 -0.05 -0.15 -0.08
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Standard Deviation (%) 13.50 14.50 13.77 11.30 12.11 10.85 12.37
Sharpe Ratio 0.04 0.08 0.34 0.51 0.49 0.54 0.30
Sortino Ratio 0.06 0.12 0.45 0.68 0.63 0.69 0.42
Ulcer Index 3.68 12.31 9.93 7.24 8.86 7.46 10.10
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.41 0.24 0.46 0.61 0.60 0.74 0.63
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.61 0.15 0.28 0.30 0.18 0.20 0.14
% Positive Months details 50% 55% 63% 66% 66% 66% 63%
Positive Months 6 20 38 80 159 239 729
Negative Months 6 16 22 40 81 121 424
LONG TERM RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 6.87 12.85 12.85 16.67
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 5.62 2.98 -1.00
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 3.98 10.89 10.89 11.26
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 2.76 0.38 -3.03
ROLLING PERIODS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Over the latest 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 50.23 24.51 19.10 12.85 9.91 8.07
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -34.12 -10.82 -2.47 2.98 6.93
% Positive Periods 83% 92% 99% 100% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 79.70 27.10 17.29 10.26 7.29 7.24
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - 0.48 4.54 5.75
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 46.87 21.61 16.70 10.89 7.46 5.40
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -34.13 -12.71 -4.98 0.38 4.24
% Positive Periods 79% 87% 96% 100% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 79.70 27.10 17.29 10.26 7.29 7.24
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - 0.48 4.54 5.75
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Over all the available data source (Jan 1928 - Jan 2024)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 80.26 25.91 22.84 16.67 14.06 12.99
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -44.00 -21.82 -7.45 -1.00 3.02 4.83
% Positive Periods 79% 90% 95% 99% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 78.81 25.78 15.88 8.50 5.13 4.06
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - - 0.69 1.93
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 93.04 21.67 19.10 11.26 9.25 8.17
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -37.82 -15.62 -5.97 -3.03 0.54 1.87
% Positive Periods 71% 83% 88% 93% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 78.81 25.78 15.88 8.50 5.13 4.06
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - - 0.69 1.93
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio.
  • Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
  • Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
  • Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
  • Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money in any case (money amount withdrawal).
    For instance: Your initial invested capital is 100.000$; withdrawal rate (annualized) is 4%. This means that, in the first month, you will withdraw 100.000 * 4% * 1/12 = 333.33$. The second month, you’ll withdraw 333.33$ plus the inflation monthly rate. You’ll continue adjusting your withdraw monthly for inflation.
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.

Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.

Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1. If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS
Monthly correlations as of 31 January 2024
Swipe left to see all data
Asset
VTI
VNQ
BND
VTI
-
0.91
0.81
VNQ
0.91
-
0.82
BND
0.81
0.82
-
Asset
VTI
VNQ
BND
VTI
-
0.86
0.53
VNQ
0.86
-
0.61
BND
0.53
0.61
-
Asset
VTI
VNQ
BND
VTI
-
0.76
0.40
VNQ
0.76
-
0.58
BND
0.40
0.58
-
Asset
VTI
VNQ
BND
VTI
-
0.63
0.16
VNQ
0.63
-
0.32
BND
0.16
0.32
-
Asset
VTI
VNQ
BND
VTI
-
0.83
0.14
VNQ
0.83
-
0.16
BND
0.14
0.16
-

If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

ROGER GIBSON TALMUD PORTFOLIO
Drawdown periods
Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 February 1994 - 31 January 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1928 - 31 January 2024 (~96 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months Ulcer Index
-40.17% Jun 2007 Feb 2009 21 Oct 2010 20 41 17.05
-22.88% Jan 2022 Sep 2022 9 in progress 16 25 14.66
-15.16% Feb 2020 Mar 2020 2 Aug 2020 5 7 6.94
-10.50% Jun 2011 Sep 2011 4 Jan 2012 4 8 4.43
-10.43% Jul 1998 Aug 1998 2 Dec 1998 4 6 5.05
-8.67% Feb 1994 Nov 1994 10 May 1995 6 16 4.94
-8.26% Apr 2002 Oct 2002 7 May 2003 7 14 5.13
-7.57% Sep 2018 Dec 2018 4 Feb 2019 2 6 3.56
-6.69% Apr 2004 Apr 2004 1 Aug 2004 4 5 3.63
-5.69% Apr 2015 Aug 2015 5 Mar 2016 7 12 3.12
-5.08% Feb 2001 Mar 2001 2 Jun 2001 3 5 2.68
-4.84% Aug 2016 Oct 2016 3 Feb 2017 4 7 2.76
-4.74% May 2013 Aug 2013 4 Oct 2013 2 6 2.49
-4.64% Jul 1999 Sep 1999 3 Dec 1999 3 6 2.68
-4.34% Jul 2001 Sep 2001 3 Dec 2001 3 6 2.32
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown (DD)
Occurrencies (EOM)
Drawdown (DD)
Range #Num Every (Avg) Frequency Cumulative Frequency
All Time High (DD=0%) 148 2.4 Months 41.00%
 
DD = 0% 41.00%
 
0% < DD <= -5% 129 2.8 Months 35.73%
 
DD <= -5% 76.73%
 
-5% < DD <= -10% 42 8.6 Months 11.63%
 
DD <= -10% 88.37%
 
-10% < DD <= -15% 16 22.6 Months 4.43%
 
DD <= -15% 92.80%
 
-15% < DD <= -20% 13 27.8 Months 3.60%
 
DD <= -20% 96.40%
 
-20% < DD <= -25% 4 90.3 Months 1.11%
 
DD <= -25% 97.51%
 
-25% < DD <= -30% 4 90.3 Months 1.11%
 
DD <= -30% 98.61%
 
-30% < DD <= -35% 3 120.3 Months 0.83%
 
DD <= -35% 99.45%
 
-35% < DD <= -40% 1 361.0 Months 0.28%
 
DD <= -40% 99.72%
 
-40% < DD <= -45% 1 361.0 Months 0.28%
 
DD <= -45% 100.00%
 
-45% < DD <= -50% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -50% 100.00%
 
-50% < DD <= -55% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -55% 100.00%
 
-55% < DD <= -60% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -60% 100.00%
 
-60% < DD <= -65% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -65% 100.00%
 
-65% < DD <= -70% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -70% 100.00%
 
-70% < DD <= -100% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -100% 100.00%
 
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months Ulcer Index
-42.21% Feb 2007 Feb 2009 25 Feb 2011 24 49 18.15
-27.11% Jan 2022 Oct 2023 22 in progress 3 25 19.77
-14.91% Feb 2020 Mar 2020 2 Aug 2020 5 7 6.55
-11.21% Jun 2011 Sep 2011 4 Jan 2012 4 8 4.95
-11.13% Apr 1998 Aug 1998 5 Apr 1999 8 13 4.15
-10.80% Feb 1994 Nov 1994 10 Jun 1995 7 17 6.31
-9.63% Apr 2002 Oct 2002 7 Jun 2003 8 15 6.33
-7.97% Sep 2018 Dec 2018 4 Mar 2019 3 7 3.57
-6.84% Apr 2004 Apr 2004 1 Oct 2004 6 7 3.56
-6.54% Feb 2015 Aug 2015 7 Mar 2016 7 14 3.43
-5.67% Jul 1999 Sep 1999 3 Mar 2000 6 9 3.04
-5.61% Sep 2000 Mar 2001 7 Mar 2002 12 19 2.75
-5.51% Aug 2016 Nov 2016 4 Jun 2017 7 11 2.84
-5.42% May 2013 Aug 2013 4 Oct 2013 2 6 2.85
-5.08% Aug 2005 Oct 2005 3 Jan 2006 3 6 2.47
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown (DD)
Occurrencies (EOM)
Drawdown (DD)
Range #Num Every (Avg) Frequency Cumulative Frequency
All Time High (DD=0%) 116 3.1 Months 32.13%
 
DD = 0% 32.13%
 
0% < DD <= -5% 138 2.6 Months 38.23%
 
DD <= -5% 70.36%
 
-5% < DD <= -10% 52 6.9 Months 14.40%
 
DD <= -10% 84.76%
 
-10% < DD <= -15% 16 22.6 Months 4.43%
 
DD <= -15% 89.20%
 
-15% < DD <= -20% 12 30.1 Months 3.32%
 
DD <= -20% 92.52%
 
-20% < DD <= -25% 14 25.8 Months 3.88%
 
DD <= -25% 96.40%
 
-25% < DD <= -30% 5 72.2 Months 1.39%
 
DD <= -30% 97.78%
 
-30% < DD <= -35% 5 72.2 Months 1.39%
 
DD <= -35% 99.17%
 
-35% < DD <= -40% 2 180.5 Months 0.55%
 
DD <= -40% 99.72%
 
-40% < DD <= -45% 1 361.0 Months 0.28%
 
DD <= -45% 100.00%
 
-45% < DD <= -50% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -50% 100.00%
 
-50% < DD <= -55% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -55% 100.00%
 
-55% < DD <= -60% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -60% 100.00%
 
-60% < DD <= -65% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -65% 100.00%
 
-65% < DD <= -70% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -70% 100.00%
 
-70% < DD <= -100% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -100% 100.00%
 
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months Ulcer Index
-57.05% Sep 1929 May 1932 33 Jan 1937 56 89 28.90
-40.17% Jun 2007 Feb 2009 21 Oct 2010 20 41 17.05
-29.48% Aug 1937 Mar 1938 8 Feb 1943 59 67 12.56
-25.53% Dec 1972 Sep 1974 22 Jan 1976 16 38 11.81
-22.88% Jan 2022 Sep 2022 9 in progress 16 25 14.66
-15.52% Sep 1987 Nov 1987 3 Jan 1989 14 17 6.69
-15.49% Dec 1968 Jun 1970 19 Nov 1970 5 24 6.74
-15.16% Feb 2020 Mar 2020 2 Aug 2020 5 7 6.94
-13.02% Dec 1961 Jun 1962 7 Jan 1963 7 14 6.37
-10.61% Jun 1946 Sep 1946 4 Jul 1947 10 14 5.77
-10.50% Jun 2011 Sep 2011 4 Jan 2012 4 8 4.43
-10.43% Jul 1998 Aug 1998 2 Dec 1998 4 6 5.05
-10.14% Jul 1990 Oct 1990 4 Jan 1991 3 7 5.88
-9.71% Feb 1980 Mar 1980 2 Jun 1980 3 5 4.55
-9.18% Jul 1948 May 1949 11 Dec 1949 7 18 5.13
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown (DD)
Occurrencies (EOM)
Drawdown (DD)
Range #Num Every (Avg) Frequency Cumulative Frequency
All Time High (DD=0%) 402 2.9 Months 34.84%
 
DD = 0% 34.84%
 
0% < DD <= -5% 423 2.7 Months 36.66%
 
DD <= -5% 71.49%
 
-5% < DD <= -10% 148 7.8 Months 12.82%
 
DD <= -10% 84.32%
 
-10% < DD <= -15% 58 19.9 Months 5.03%
 
DD <= -15% 89.34%
 
-15% < DD <= -20% 39 29.6 Months 3.38%
 
DD <= -20% 92.72%
 
-20% < DD <= -25% 23 50.2 Months 1.99%
 
DD <= -25% 94.71%
 
-25% < DD <= -30% 21 55.0 Months 1.82%
 
DD <= -30% 96.53%
 
-30% < DD <= -35% 18 64.1 Months 1.56%
 
DD <= -35% 98.09%
 
-35% < DD <= -40% 8 144.3 Months 0.69%
 
DD <= -40% 98.79%
 
-40% < DD <= -45% 8 144.3 Months 0.69%
 
DD <= -45% 99.48%
 
-45% < DD <= -50% 2 577.0 Months 0.17%
 
DD <= -50% 99.65%
 
-50% < DD <= -55% 2 577.0 Months 0.17%
 
DD <= -55% 99.83%
 
-55% < DD <= -60% 2 577.0 Months 0.17%
 
DD <= -60% 100.00%
 
-60% < DD <= -65% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -65% 100.00%
 
-65% < DD <= -70% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -70% 100.00%
 
-70% < DD <= -100% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -100% 100.00%
 
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months Ulcer Index
-45.76% Sep 1929 May 1932 33 Jun 1933 13 46 22.29
-42.21% Feb 2007 Feb 2009 25 Feb 2011 24 49 18.15
-37.59% Dec 1972 Sep 1974 22 Nov 1980 74 96 17.98
-28.30% Mar 1937 Apr 1942 62 Feb 1945 34 96 12.97
-27.11% Jan 2022 Oct 2023 22 in progress 3 25 19.77
-24.60% Jun 1946 Feb 1948 21 Dec 1952 58 79 14.52
-22.90% Dec 1968 Jun 1970 19 Mar 1971 9 28 11.33
-22.16% Jul 1933 Mar 1935 21 Dec 1935 9 30 13.69
-16.33% Sep 1987 Nov 1987 3 May 1989 18 21 7.66
-15.91% Sep 1989 Oct 1990 14 Mar 1991 5 19 7.51
-14.91% Feb 2020 Mar 2020 2 Aug 2020 5 7 6.55
-13.76% Dec 1980 Sep 1981 10 Oct 1982 13 23 7.15
-13.69% Dec 1961 Jun 1962 7 Apr 1963 10 17 6.47
-11.63% Oct 1993 Nov 1994 14 Jul 1995 8 22 6.33
-11.21% Jun 2011 Sep 2011 4 Jan 2012 4 8 4.95
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown (DD)
Occurrencies (EOM)
Drawdown (DD)
Range #Num Every (Avg) Frequency Cumulative Frequency
All Time High (DD=0%) 264 4.4 Months 22.88%
 
DD = 0% 22.88%
 
0% < DD <= -5% 382 3.0 Months 33.10%
 
DD <= -5% 55.98%
 
-5% < DD <= -10% 198 5.8 Months 17.16%
 
DD <= -10% 73.14%
 
-10% < DD <= -15% 120 9.6 Months 10.40%
 
DD <= -15% 83.54%
 
-15% < DD <= -20% 86 13.4 Months 7.45%
 
DD <= -20% 90.99%
 
-20% < DD <= -25% 53 21.8 Months 4.59%
 
DD <= -25% 95.58%
 
-25% < DD <= -30% 27 42.7 Months 2.34%
 
DD <= -30% 97.92%
 
-30% < DD <= -35% 14 82.4 Months 1.21%
 
DD <= -35% 99.13%
 
-35% < DD <= -40% 7 164.9 Months 0.61%
 
DD <= -40% 99.74%
 
-40% < DD <= -45% 1 1154.0 Months 0.09%
 
DD <= -45% 99.83%
 
-45% < DD <= -50% 2 577.0 Months 0.17%
 
DD <= -50% 100.00%
 
-50% < DD <= -55% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -55% 100.00%
 
-55% < DD <= -60% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -60% 100.00%
 
-60% < DD <= -65% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -65% 100.00%
 
-65% < DD <= -70% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -70% 100.00%
 
-70% < DD <= -100% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -100% 100.00%
 

Rolling Returns

( more details)

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

ROGER GIBSON TALMUD PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 February 1994 - 31 January 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1928 - 31 January 2024 (~96 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
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Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -34.12 03/2008
02/2009
0.65$ -0.77 0.99$ 9.24 1.09$ 19.44 1.19$ 50.23 04/2009
03/2010
1.50$ 5.59 16.05%
2Y -21.88 03/2007
02/2009
0.61$ 2.34 1.04$ 9.12 1.19$ 15.16 1.32$ 34.84 03/2009
02/2011
1.81$ -2.02 10.68%
3Y -10.82 03/2006
02/2009
0.70$ 4.01 1.12$ 8.41 1.27$ 14.11 1.48$ 24.51 03/2009
02/2012
1.93$ 3.41 7.08%
5Y -2.47 03/2004
02/2009
0.88$ 4.48 1.24$ 8.45 1.50$ 12.30 1.78$ 19.10 03/2009
02/2014
2.39$ 6.40 1.00%
7Y 1.35 03/2002
02/2009
1.09$ 6.15 1.51$ 8.20 1.73$ 10.27 1.98$ 15.12 04/2009
03/2016
2.67$ 6.32 0.00%
10Y 2.98 03/1999
02/2009
1.34$ 6.47 1.87$ 8.01 2.16$ 10.51 2.71$ 12.85 03/2009
02/2019
3.34$ 6.87 0.00%
15Y 5.75 03/1994
02/2009
2.31$ 7.18 2.82$ 7.93 3.14$ 8.58 3.43$ 9.78 02/2009
01/2024
4.05$ 9.78 0.00%
20Y 6.93 11/2003
10/2023
3.81$ 7.56 4.29$ 8.14 4.77$ 9.05 5.65$ 9.91 12/1994
11/2014
6.61$ 7.22 0.00%
30Y 8.07 02/1994
01/2024
10.26$ 8.07 10.26$ 8.07 10.26$ 8.07 10.26$ 8.07 02/1994
01/2024
10.26$ 8.07 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
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Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -34.13 03/2008
02/2009
0.65$ -3.21 0.96$ 6.72 1.06$ 16.08 1.16$ 46.87 04/2009
03/2010
1.46$ 2.41 20.06%
2Y -23.45 03/2007
02/2009
0.58$ -0.30 0.99$ 6.86 1.14$ 12.39 1.26$ 32.02 03/2009
02/2011
1.74$ -6.44 15.43%
3Y -12.71 03/2006
02/2009
0.66$ 0.54 1.01$ 6.47 1.20$ 11.48 1.38$ 21.61 03/2009
02/2012
1.79$ -2.13 12.62%
5Y -4.98 03/2004
02/2009
0.77$ 1.70 1.08$ 6.23 1.35$ 9.48 1.57$ 16.70 03/2009
02/2014
2.16$ 2.14 3.32%
7Y -1.19 03/2002
02/2009
0.91$ 3.64 1.28$ 6.00 1.50$ 7.87 1.69$ 13.26 04/2009
03/2016
2.39$ 2.74 0.72%
10Y 0.38 03/1999
02/2009
1.03$ 4.07 1.49$ 5.73 1.74$ 7.96 2.15$ 10.89 03/2009
02/2019
2.81$ 3.98 0.00%
15Y 3.17 03/1994
02/2009
1.59$ 4.80 2.02$ 5.57 2.25$ 6.16 2.44$ 7.04 02/2009
01/2024
2.77$ 7.04 0.00%
20Y 4.24 11/2003
10/2023
2.29$ 5.19 2.75$ 5.82 3.10$ 6.64 3.62$ 7.46 02/1995
01/2015
4.21$ 4.53 0.00%
30Y 5.40 02/1994
01/2024
4.84$ 5.40 4.84$ 5.40 4.84$ 5.40 4.84$ 5.40 02/1994
01/2024
4.84$ 5.40 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
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Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -44.00 07/1931
06/1932
0.56$ -2.40 0.97$ 8.62 1.08$ 19.39 1.19$ 80.26 07/1932
06/1933
1.80$ 5.59 20.49%
2Y -30.93 06/1930
05/1932
0.47$ 1.45 1.02$ 7.93 1.16$ 16.07 1.34$ 34.84 03/2009
02/2011
1.81$ -2.02 11.95%
3Y -21.82 07/1929
06/1932
0.47$ 2.74 1.08$ 8.09 1.26$ 14.07 1.48$ 25.91 07/1982
06/1985
1.99$ 3.41 9.39%
5Y -7.45 04/1928
03/1933
0.67$ 3.91 1.21$ 7.97 1.46$ 12.95 1.83$ 22.84 08/1982
07/1987
2.79$ 6.40 4.20%
7Y -1.75 04/1928
03/1935
0.88$ 4.77 1.38$ 7.92 1.70$ 11.96 2.20$ 19.85 04/1980
03/1987
3.55$ 6.32 0.93%
10Y -1.00 09/1929
08/1939
0.90$ 5.25 1.66$ 7.82 2.12$ 11.96 3.09$ 16.67 06/1976
05/1986
4.67$ 6.87 0.29%
15Y 1.47 09/1929
08/1944
1.24$ 5.91 2.36$ 7.86 3.11$ 12.33 5.72$ 15.71 10/1974
09/1989
8.92$ 9.78 0.00%
20Y 3.02 09/1929
08/1949
1.81$ 6.20 3.33$ 8.05 4.70$ 11.48 8.78$ 14.06 03/1978
02/1998
13.90$ 7.22 0.00%
30Y 4.83 10/1929
09/1959
4.12$ 6.49 6.59$ 8.94 13.04$ 11.06 23.24$ 12.99 01/1975
12/2004
38.99$ 8.07 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
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Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -37.82 07/1931
06/1932
0.62$ -6.14 0.93$ 5.17 1.05$ 15.56 1.15$ 93.04 07/1932
06/1933
1.93$ 2.41 28.90%
2Y -23.45 03/2007
02/2009
0.58$ -1.83 0.96$ 4.66 1.09$ 12.12 1.25$ 32.02 03/2009
02/2011
1.74$ -6.44 22.12%
3Y -15.62 07/1929
06/1932
0.60$ -0.57 0.98$ 4.68 1.14$ 10.38 1.34$ 21.67 07/1982
06/1985
1.80$ -2.13 16.28%
5Y -5.97 10/1969
09/1974
0.73$ 0.64 1.03$ 4.76 1.26$ 8.88 1.52$ 19.10 08/1982
07/1987
2.39$ 2.14 11.33%
7Y -5.31 10/1967
09/1974
0.68$ 1.30 1.09$ 4.84 1.39$ 8.06 1.72$ 14.21 04/1980
03/1987
2.53$ 2.74 8.50%
10Y -3.03 10/1964
09/1974
0.73$ 1.56 1.16$ 4.79 1.59$ 8.22 2.20$ 11.26 08/1982
07/1992
2.90$ 3.98 6.58%
15Y -0.52 01/1960
12/1974
0.92$ 2.02 1.34$ 4.93 2.05$ 7.49 2.95$ 11.06 08/1982
07/1997
4.82$ 7.04 1.03%
20Y 0.54 01/1955
12/1974
1.11$ 2.44 1.62$ 4.58 2.45$ 7.28 4.07$ 9.25 04/1980
03/2000
5.87$ 4.53 0.00%
30Y 1.87 06/1946
05/1976
1.74$ 3.11 2.50$ 4.29 3.52$ 6.94 7.47$ 8.17 01/1975
12/2004
10.55$ 5.40 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Roger Gibson Talmud Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Roger Gibson Talmud Portfolio?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
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Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
0.13
40%
-1.48
40%
-0.59
80%
1.74
80%
-0.31
40%
1.09
80%
3.15
100%
-0.16
60%
-3.68
20%
1.01
60%
4.10
80%
2.16
80%
Best 6.9
2023
1.7
2021
2.6
2021
7.8
2020
2.5
2020
4.1
2023
6.6
2022
2.2
2020
1.1
2019
4.9
2021
8.6
2023
6.1
2023
Worst -5.5
2022
-4.4
2020
-11.2
2020
-5.7
2022
-1.7
2019
-5.7
2022
1.1
2019
-4.2
2022
-8.6
2022
-2.6
2023
-1.2
2021
-3.8
2022
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1928 - Jan 2024
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Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
0.79
50%
-0.52
60%
0.37
80%
0.86
70%
0.45
70%
1.00
80%
2.32
90%
-0.11
60%
-2.20
30%
0.77
60%
2.66
80%
0.91
70%
Best 7.2
2019
3.5
2014
6.0
2016
7.8
2020
2.5
2020
4.1
2023
6.6
2022
2.8
2014
1.1
2019
4.9
2021
8.6
2023
6.1
2023
Worst -5.5
2022
-4.4
2020
-11.2
2020
-5.7
2022
-1.7
2019
-5.7
2022
-0.7
2014
-4.2
2015
-8.6
2022
-3.9
2018
-1.2
2021
-5.2
2018
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1928 - Jan 2024
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Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
1.19
67%
0.11
56%
0.63
68%
1.03
66%
0.06
59%
0.93
65%
1.42
68%
0.75
61%
-0.45
50%
0.22
60%
0.91
61%
1.45
77%
Best 9.6
1975
8.8
1931
6.6
1930
26.9
1933
11.4
1933
16.0
1938
21.0
1932
23.5
1932
9.2
1939
8.8
1982
9.0
1928
7.0
2008
Worst -9.2
2009
-13.8
1933
-18.1
1938
-11.8
1932
-15.4
1940
-10.2
1930
-8.0
1933
-7.8
1998
-16.8
1931
-17.5
2008
-8.2
1973
-6.6
1931
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1928 - Jan 2024

Monthly Returns

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Roger Gibson Talmud Portfolio over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

ROGER GIBSON TALMUD PORTFOLIO
Monthly Returns Distribution
Data Source: 1 February 1994 - 31 January 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1928 - 31 January 2024 (~96 years)
239 Positive Months (66%) - 121 Negative Months (34%)
729 Positive Months (63%) - 424 Negative Months (37%)
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Investment Returns, up to December 2007, have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
You can find additional information on extended Data Sources here.

In particular, the series derived from equivalent datasets are:
  • VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI), up to December 2001
  • VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate (VNQ), up to December 2004
  • BND - Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND), up to December 2007

Portfolio efficiency

The following portfolios granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.

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30 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Author Return Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Momentum +9.48 9.58 -32.52 60 40 0
Simple Path to Wealth JL Collins +8.83 11.77 -38.53 75 25 0
Shield Strategy Aim Ways +8.63 8.85 -19.36 42 38 20
Aim Bold Strategy Aim Ways +8.16 9.93 -30.09 45 40 15
Talmud Portfolio Roger Gibson +8.07 10.85 -40.17 66.7 33.3 0

The following portfolios share asset allocation strategy and/or similar asset weights.

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5 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Author Return Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Talmud Portfolio 2x Leveraged Roger Gibson +6.51 26.04 -44.36 66.7 33.3 0
Talmud Portfolio Roger Gibson +6.40 13.77 -22.88 66.7 33.3 0

Here's a list containing the Best Classic Portfolios, with the highest returns over 30 Years and High Risk categorization.

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30 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Author Return Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Momentum +9.48 9.58 -32.52 60 40 0
Simple Path to Wealth JL Collins +8.83 11.77 -38.53 75 25 0
Shield Strategy Aim Ways +8.63 8.85 -19.36 42 38 20
Aim Bold Strategy Aim Ways +8.16 9.93 -30.09 45 40 15
Talmud Portfolio Roger Gibson +8.07 10.85 -40.17 66.7 33.3 0
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