Data Source: from January 1976 to November 2023 (~48 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 November 2023
Live Update: Dec 01 2023
Consolidated Returns as of 30 November 2023
Live Update: Dec 01 2023
PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
1.43%
1 Day
Dec 01 2023
1.43%
Current Month
December 2023
The Marc Faber Portfolio is a High Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 6 ETFs.
It's exposed for 50% on the Stock Market and for 25% on Commodities.
In the last 30 Years, the Marc Faber Portfolio obtained a 7.22% compound annual return, with a 9.65% standard deviation.
Table of contents
Asset Allocation and ETFs
The Marc Faber Portfolio has the following asset allocation:
50% Stocks
25% Fixed Income
25% Commodities
The Marc Faber Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:
| Weight (%) | Ticker | Currency | ETF Name | Investment Themes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25.00 |
VNQ
|
USD | Vanguard Real Estate | Real Estate, U.S. |
| 13.00 |
VV
|
USD | Vanguard Large-Cap | Equity, U.S., Large Cap |
| 8.00 |
VEA
|
USD | Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets | Equity, EAFE, Large Cap |
| 4.00 |
EEM
|
USD | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets | Equity, Emerging Markets, Large Cap |
| 25.00 |
BND
|
USD | Vanguard Total Bond Market | Bond, U.S., All-Term |
| 25.00 |
GLD
|
USD | SPDR Gold Trust | Commodity, Gold |
Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.
Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Nov 30, 2023
The Marc Faber Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.
Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:
- no fees or capital gain taxes.
- a rebalancing of the components at every January 1st. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
- the reinvestment of dividends.
MARC FABER PORTFOLIO
Consolidated returns as of 30 November 2023
Live Update: Dec 01 2023
Swipe left to see all data
| Chg (%) | Return (%) | Return (%) as of Nov 30, 2023 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Day | Time ET(*) | Dec 2023 | 1M | 6M | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | 30Y |
MAX
(~48Y) |
|||
| Marc Faber Portfolio | 1.43 | 1.43 | 6.88 | 3.79 | 6.11 | 6.36 | 5.43 | 7.22 | 9.33 | |||
| US Inflation Adjusted return | 6.88 | 2.60 | 2.68 | 2.20 | 2.54 | 4.59 | 5.49 | |||||
| Components | ||||||||||||
|
VNQ
|
USD | Vanguard Real Estate | 2.46 | Dec 01 2023 | 2.46 | 12.08 | 4.30 | -2.99 | 3.66 | 6.41 | 8.34 | 11.72 |
|
VV
|
USD | Vanguard Large-Cap | 0.60 | Dec 01 2023 | 0.60 | 9.48 | 10.62 | 14.57 | 12.47 | 11.69 | 10.07 | 11.45 |
|
VEA
|
USD | Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets | 1.02 | Dec 01 2023 | 1.02 | 8.81 | 4.66 | 9.27 | 6.03 | 4.14 | 5.23 | 8.45 |
|
EEM
|
USD | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets | 0.43 | Dec 01 2023 | 0.43 | 7.79 | 4.40 | 2.42 | 1.46 | 1.42 | 4.65 | 7.38 |
|
BND
|
USD | Vanguard Total Bond Market | 0.82 | Dec 01 2023 | 0.82 | 4.54 | -0.60 | 0.97 | 0.72 | 1.33 | 4.12 | 6.31 |
|
GLD
|
USD | SPDR Gold Trust | 1.73 | Dec 01 2023 | 1.73 | 2.53 | 3.53 | 14.53 | 10.31 | 4.57 | 5.55 | 5.56 |
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1976
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Oct 2023.
Waiting for updates, inflation of Nov 2023 is set to 0%.
Current inflation (annualized) is
1Y: 3.35%
, 5Y: 4.07%
, 10Y: 2.82%
, 30Y: 2.52%
Live update: World Markets and Indexes
In 2022, the Marc Faber Portfolio granted a 1.71% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Marc Faber Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.
Capital Growth as of Nov 30, 2023
An investment of 1$, since December 1993,
now would be worth 8.10$, with a total return of 710.33% (7.22% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 3.84$, with a net total return of 284.00% (4.59% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 3.84$, with a net total return of 284.00% (4.59% annualized).
An investment of 1$, since January 1976,
now would be worth 71.77$, with a total return of 7077.18% (9.33% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 12.95$, with a net total return of 1194.67% (5.49% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 12.95$, with a net total return of 1194.67% (5.49% annualized).
Readings that may interest you
Portfolio Metrics as of Nov 30, 2023
Metrics of Marc Faber Portfolio, updated as of 30 November 2023.
Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
- no fees or capital gain taxes.
- a rebalancing of the components at every January 1st. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
- the reinvestment of dividends.
MARC FABER PORTFOLIO
Advanced Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 1976 - 30 November 2023 (~48 years)
Swipe left to see all data
| Metrics as of Nov 30, 2023 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y |
MAX
(~48Y) |
|
| Investment Return (%) | 6.88 | 1.79 | 3.79 | 6.11 | 2.56 | 6.36 | 5.43 | 7.37 | 7.22 | 9.33 |
| Infl. Adjusted Return (%) details | 6.88 | 1.57 | 2.60 | 2.68 | -3.00 | 2.20 | 2.54 | 4.66 | 4.59 | 5.49 |
| US Inflation (%) | 0.00 | 0.21 | 1.17 | 3.35 | 5.74 | 4.07 | 2.82 | 2.59 | 2.52 | 3.64 |
| Waiting for updates, inflation of Nov 2023 is temporarily set to 0%. Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized. | ||||||||||
|
DRAWDOWN
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
|
1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y | MAX | |||
| Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) | -6.81 | -19.93 | -19.93 | -19.93 | -28.82 | -28.82 | -28.82 | |||
| Start to Recovery (# months) details | 4* | 23* | 23* | 23* | 22 | 22 | 22 | |||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2023 08 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2008 06 | 2008 06 | 2008 06 | |||
| Start to Bottom (# months) | 3 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | |||
| Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2023 10 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2009 02 | 2009 02 | 2009 02 | |||
| Bottom to End (# months) | 1 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | |||
| End (yyyy mm) | - | - | - | - | 2010 03 | 2010 03 | 2010 03 | |||
| Longest Drawdown Depth (%) | -4.45 |
same as deepest |
same as deepest |
same as deepest |
-19.93 | -19.93 | -19.93 | |||
| Start to Recovery (# months) details | 6 | 23* | 23* | 23* | ||||||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2023 02 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | |||
| Start to Bottom (# months) | 1 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | |||
| Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2023 02 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | |||
| Bottom to End (# months) | 5 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | |||
| End (yyyy mm) | 2023 07 | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||
| Longest negative period (# months) details | 11 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 41 | 41 | 41 | |||
| Period Start (yyyy mm) | 2022 12 | 2021 01 | 2021 01 | 2021 01 | 2005 10 | 2005 10 | 2005 10 | |||
| Period End (yyyy mm) | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 2009 02 | 2009 02 | 2009 02 | |||
| Annualized Return (%) | -0.79 | -1.00 | -1.00 | -1.00 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | |||
| Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress | ||||||||||
| Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) | -8.20 | -24.79 | -24.79 | -24.79 | -29.75 | -29.75 | -29.75 | |||
| Start to Recovery (# months) details | 10* | 23* | 23* | 23* | 30 | 30 | 30 | |||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2023 02 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2007 11 | 2007 11 | 2007 11 | |||
| Start to Bottom (# months) | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 16 | 16 | |||
| Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2023 10 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2009 02 | 2009 02 | 2009 02 | |||
| Bottom to End (# months) | 1 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | |||
| End (yyyy mm) | - | - | - | - | 2010 04 | 2010 04 | 2010 04 | |||
| Longest Drawdown Depth (%) |
same as deepest |
same as deepest |
same as deepest |
same as deepest |
same as deepest |
same as deepest |
-26.77 | |||
| Start to Recovery (# months) details | 39 | |||||||||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2023 02 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2007 11 | 2007 11 | 1980 02 | |||
| Start to Bottom (# months) | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 16 | 29 | |||
| Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2023 10 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2009 02 | 2009 02 | 1982 06 | |||
| Bottom to End (# months) | 1 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 10 | |||
| End (yyyy mm) | - | - | - | - | 2010 04 | 2010 04 | 1983 04 | |||
| Longest negative period (# months) details | 11 | 36* | 55 | 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 | |||
| Period Start (yyyy mm) | 2022 12 | 2020 12 | 2019 04 | 2016 08 | 2016 08 | 2016 08 | 2016 08 | |||
| Period End (yyyy mm) | 2023 10 | 2023 11 | 2023 10 | 2022 10 | 2022 10 | 2022 10 | 2022 10 | |||
| Annualized Return (%) | -4.29 | -3.00 | -0.14 | -0.18 | -0.18 | -0.18 | -0.18 | |||
| Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress | ||||||||||
|
RISK INDICATORS
|
1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y | MAX | |||
| Standard Deviation (%) | 12.63 | 12.22 | 11.87 | 9.66 | 10.83 | 9.65 | 9.61 | |||
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.39 | 0.45 | 0.56 | 0.52 | 0.56 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.15 | 0.07 | 0.54 | 0.63 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.75 | |||
| Ulcer Index | 3.17 | 9.13 | 7.34 | 5.70 | 6.35 | 5.40 | 4.87 | |||
| Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation | 0.48 | 0.21 | 0.54 | 0.56 | 0.68 | 0.75 | 0.97 | |||
| Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown | 0.90 | 0.13 | 0.32 | 0.27 | 0.26 | 0.25 | 0.32 | |||
| % Positive Months details | 50% | 50% | 58% | 57% | 60% | 62% | 65% | |||
| Positive Months | 6 | 18 | 35 | 69 | 145 | 224 | 376 | |||
| Negative Months | 6 | 18 | 25 | 51 | 95 | 136 | 199 | |||
|
LONG TERM RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
|
1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y | MAX | |||
| Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized | 5.43 | 9.89 | 11.86 | 16.86 | ||||||
| Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized | 3.88 | 3.88 | 3.88 | |||||||
| Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized | 2.54 | 7.75 | 9.27 | 9.53 | ||||||
| Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized | 1.32 | 1.32 | 1.32 | |||||||
|
ROLLING PERIOD RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
|
1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y | MAX | |||
| Over the latest 30Y | ||||||||||
| Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | 42.34 | 23.08 | 17.27 | 11.86 | 9.06 | 7.22 | ||||
| Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | -27.56 | -3.16 | 2.82 | 3.88 | 7.14 | |||||
| % Positive Periods | 85% | 98% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||||
| Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | 39.12 | 20.23 | 13.98 | 9.27 | 6.67 | 4.59 | ||||
| Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | -27.73 | -5.24 | -0.26 | 1.32 | 4.45 | |||||
| % Positive Periods | 77% | 92% | 99% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||||
| Over all the available data source (Jan 1976 - Nov 2023) | ||||||||||
| Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | 54.30 | 27.82 | 21.14 | 16.86 | 12.20 | 11.24 | ||||
| Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | -27.56 | -3.16 | 2.82 | 3.88 | 6.91 | 6.89 | ||||
| % Positive Periods | 86% | 99% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||||
| Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | 39.12 | 20.23 | 16.41 | 9.53 | 6.69 | 7.05 | ||||
| Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | -27.73 | -5.24 | -0.26 | 1.32 | 3.97 | 4.26 | ||||
| % Positive Periods | 76% | 92% | 99% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||||
|
WITHDRAWAL RATES (WR)
|
1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y | MAX | |||
| Safe WR (%) | 33.18 | 22.90 | 11.92 | 8.77 | 6.28 | 7.52 | ||||
| Perpetual WR (%) | 0.00 | 2.15 | 2.48 | 4.46 | 4.39 | 5.20 | ||||
- Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio
- Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
- Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed
- Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean
- Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return
- Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation)
- Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio
- Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame
- Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
- Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the original portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money (dollar amount withdrawal).
- Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year, while retaining the inflation adjusted portfolio balance (percentage withdrawal).
Analyze your Portfolio: Backtest Now!
Explore historical data since 1871 and fine-tune your investment strategy for better results.
Explore historical data since 1871 and fine-tune your investment strategy for better results.
Portfolio Components Correlation
Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.
Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1. If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS
Monthly correlations as of 30 November 2023
Swipe left to see all data
| Asset |
VNQ
|
VV
|
VEA
|
EEM
|
BND
|
GLD
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
VNQ
|
-
|
0.91
|
0.95
|
0.87
|
0.83
|
0.33
|
|
VV
|
0.91
|
-
|
0.90
|
0.85
|
0.81
|
0.30
|
|
VEA
|
0.95
|
0.90
|
-
|
0.93
|
0.88
|
0.41
|
|
EEM
|
0.87
|
0.85
|
0.93
|
-
|
0.82
|
0.48
|
|
BND
|
0.83
|
0.81
|
0.88
|
0.82
|
-
|
0.60
|
|
GLD
|
0.33
|
0.30
|
0.41
|
0.48
|
0.60
|
-
|
| Asset |
VNQ
|
VV
|
VEA
|
EEM
|
BND
|
GLD
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
VNQ
|
-
|
0.87
|
0.84
|
0.68
|
0.56
|
0.26
|
|
VV
|
0.87
|
-
|
0.91
|
0.73
|
0.49
|
0.22
|
|
VEA
|
0.84
|
0.91
|
-
|
0.86
|
0.53
|
0.27
|
|
EEM
|
0.68
|
0.73
|
0.86
|
-
|
0.52
|
0.35
|
|
BND
|
0.56
|
0.49
|
0.53
|
0.52
|
-
|
0.49
|
|
GLD
|
0.26
|
0.22
|
0.27
|
0.35
|
0.49
|
-
|
| Asset |
VNQ
|
VV
|
VEA
|
EEM
|
BND
|
GLD
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
VNQ
|
-
|
0.74
|
0.69
|
0.54
|
0.57
|
0.20
|
|
VV
|
0.74
|
-
|
0.88
|
0.70
|
0.38
|
0.10
|
|
VEA
|
0.69
|
0.88
|
-
|
0.83
|
0.42
|
0.17
|
|
EEM
|
0.54
|
0.70
|
0.83
|
-
|
0.41
|
0.29
|
|
BND
|
0.57
|
0.38
|
0.42
|
0.41
|
-
|
0.47
|
|
GLD
|
0.20
|
0.10
|
0.17
|
0.29
|
0.47
|
-
|
| Asset |
VNQ
|
VV
|
VEA
|
EEM
|
BND
|
GLD
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
VNQ
|
-
|
0.62
|
0.61
|
0.52
|
0.31
|
0.14
|
|
VV
|
0.62
|
-
|
0.84
|
0.73
|
0.17
|
0.04
|
|
VEA
|
0.61
|
0.84
|
-
|
0.81
|
0.17
|
0.18
|
|
EEM
|
0.52
|
0.73
|
0.81
|
-
|
0.15
|
0.27
|
|
BND
|
0.31
|
0.17
|
0.17
|
0.15
|
-
|
0.30
|
|
GLD
|
0.14
|
0.04
|
0.18
|
0.27
|
0.30
|
-
|
| Asset |
VNQ
|
VV
|
VEA
|
EEM
|
BND
|
GLD
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
VNQ
|
-
|
0.61
|
0.55
|
0.50
|
0.25
|
0.10
|
|
VV
|
0.61
|
-
|
0.76
|
0.71
|
0.24
|
0.03
|
|
VEA
|
0.55
|
0.76
|
-
|
0.69
|
0.20
|
0.15
|
|
EEM
|
0.50
|
0.71
|
0.69
|
-
|
0.18
|
0.12
|
|
BND
|
0.25
|
0.24
|
0.20
|
0.18
|
-
|
0.12
|
|
GLD
|
0.10
|
0.03
|
0.15
|
0.12
|
0.12
|
-
|
If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.
Drawdowns
A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.
MARC FABER PORTFOLIO
Drawdown periods
Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 December 1993 - 30 November 2023 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1976 - 30 November 2023 (~48 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period |
Recovery period |
Total |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months | Ulcer Index |
| -28.82% | Jun 2008 | Feb 2009 | 9 | Mar 2010 | 13 | 22 | 15.08 |
| -19.93% | Jan 2022 | Sep 2022 | 9 | in progress | 14 | 23 | 11.30 |
| -11.30% | Feb 2020 | Mar 2020 | 2 | Jul 2020 | 4 | 6 | 4.97 |
| -10.47% | May 1998 | Aug 1998 | 4 | Apr 1999 | 8 | 12 | 4.24 |
| -7.96% | Sep 2011 | Sep 2011 | 1 | Jan 2012 | 4 | 5 | 3.66 |
| -7.74% | Feb 2015 | Sep 2015 | 8 | Apr 2016 | 7 | 15 | 4.66 |
| -7.73% | Aug 2016 | Nov 2016 | 4 | Jul 2017 | 8 | 12 | 3.60 |
| -7.35% | Apr 2004 | Apr 2004 | 1 | Sep 2004 | 5 | 6 | 4.13 |
| -7.32% | May 2013 | Jun 2013 | 2 | Feb 2014 | 8 | 10 | 4.24 |
| -6.80% | Jun 2002 | Oct 2002 | 5 | May 2003 | 7 | 12 | 3.88 |
| -6.45% | Feb 1994 | Nov 1994 | 10 | May 1995 | 6 | 16 | 3.79 |
| -5.23% | Feb 2018 | Dec 2018 | 11 | Jan 2019 | 1 | 12 | 3.03 |
| -4.70% | May 2012 | May 2012 | 1 | Aug 2012 | 3 | 4 | 2.22 |
| -4.55% | Jun 2007 | Jul 2007 | 2 | Sep 2007 | 2 | 4 | 2.63 |
| -4.37% | Feb 2001 | Mar 2001 | 2 | Jun 2001 | 3 | 5 | 2.13 |
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period |
Recovery period |
Total |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months | Ulcer Index |
| -29.75% | Nov 2007 | Feb 2009 | 16 | Apr 2010 | 14 | 30 | 14.36 |
| -24.79% | Jan 2022 | Sep 2022 | 9 | in progress | 14 | 23 | 16.97 |
| -11.35% | Feb 2020 | Mar 2020 | 2 | Jul 2020 | 4 | 6 | 4.89 |
| -10.97% | May 1998 | Aug 1998 | 4 | Dec 1999 | 16 | 20 | 4.24 |
| -9.38% | Feb 2015 | Sep 2015 | 8 | Jun 2016 | 9 | 17 | 5.66 |
| -8.64% | Feb 1994 | Nov 1994 | 10 | Nov 1995 | 12 | 22 | 4.92 |
| -8.20% | May 2011 | Sep 2011 | 5 | Jan 2012 | 4 | 9 | 2.99 |
| -8.00% | Aug 2016 | Nov 2016 | 4 | Aug 2017 | 9 | 13 | 4.01 |
| -7.70% | May 2013 | Jun 2013 | 2 | Jun 2014 | 12 | 14 | 3.96 |
| -7.64% | Apr 2004 | Apr 2004 | 1 | Oct 2004 | 6 | 7 | 4.46 |
| -7.57% | Jun 2002 | Oct 2002 | 5 | May 2003 | 7 | 12 | 4.67 |
| -6.81% | Feb 2018 | Oct 2018 | 9 | Mar 2019 | 5 | 14 | 3.96 |
| -6.02% | Feb 2007 | Jul 2007 | 6 | Sep 2007 | 2 | 8 | 2.89 |
| -5.53% | Sep 2000 | Mar 2001 | 7 | Feb 2002 | 11 | 18 | 2.55 |
| -4.58% | May 2012 | May 2012 | 1 | Jul 2012 | 2 | 3 | 2.38 |
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period |
Recovery period |
Total |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months | Ulcer Index |
| -28.82% | Jun 2008 | Feb 2009 | 9 | Mar 2010 | 13 | 22 | 15.08 |
| -19.93% | Jan 2022 | Sep 2022 | 9 | in progress | 14 | 23 | 11.30 |
| -16.06% | Dec 1980 | Jun 1982 | 19 | Oct 1982 | 4 | 23 | 9.14 |
| -13.66% | Feb 1980 | Mar 1980 | 2 | Jun 1980 | 3 | 5 | 7.25 |
| -11.30% | Feb 2020 | Mar 2020 | 2 | Jul 2020 | 4 | 6 | 4.97 |
| -10.47% | May 1998 | Aug 1998 | 4 | Apr 1999 | 8 | 12 | 4.24 |
| -9.04% | Sep 1987 | Oct 1987 | 2 | Jan 1989 | 15 | 17 | 3.76 |
| -8.47% | Jan 1990 | Oct 1990 | 10 | Feb 1991 | 4 | 14 | 4.83 |
| -7.96% | Sep 2011 | Sep 2011 | 1 | Jan 2012 | 4 | 5 | 3.66 |
| -7.74% | Feb 2015 | Sep 2015 | 8 | Apr 2016 | 7 | 15 | 4.66 |
| -7.73% | Aug 2016 | Nov 2016 | 4 | Jul 2017 | 8 | 12 | 3.60 |
| -7.35% | Apr 2004 | Apr 2004 | 1 | Sep 2004 | 5 | 6 | 4.13 |
| -7.32% | May 2013 | Jun 2013 | 2 | Feb 2014 | 8 | 10 | 4.24 |
| -6.80% | Jun 2002 | Oct 2002 | 5 | May 2003 | 7 | 12 | 3.88 |
| -6.67% | Oct 1979 | Oct 1979 | 1 | Dec 1979 | 2 | 3 | 3.41 |
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Drawdown period |
Recovery period |
Total |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months | Ulcer Index |
| -29.75% | Nov 2007 | Feb 2009 | 16 | Apr 2010 | 14 | 30 | 14.36 |
| -26.77% | Feb 1980 | Jun 1982 | 29 | Apr 1983 | 10 | 39 | 13.85 |
| -24.79% | Jan 2022 | Sep 2022 | 9 | in progress | 14 | 23 | 16.97 |
| -13.54% | Jan 1990 | Oct 1990 | 10 | Dec 1991 | 14 | 24 | 6.66 |
| -11.35% | Feb 2020 | Mar 2020 | 2 | Jul 2020 | 4 | 6 | 4.89 |
| -10.97% | May 1998 | Aug 1998 | 4 | Dec 1999 | 16 | 20 | 4.24 |
| -10.11% | Aug 1987 | Oct 1987 | 3 | Sep 1989 | 23 | 26 | 5.35 |
| -9.38% | Feb 2015 | Sep 2015 | 8 | Jun 2016 | 9 | 17 | 5.66 |
| -8.64% | Feb 1994 | Nov 1994 | 10 | Nov 1995 | 12 | 22 | 4.92 |
| -8.20% | May 2011 | Sep 2011 | 5 | Jan 2012 | 4 | 9 | 2.99 |
| -8.00% | Aug 2016 | Nov 2016 | 4 | Aug 2017 | 9 | 13 | 4.01 |
| -7.70% | May 2013 | Jun 2013 | 2 | Jun 2014 | 12 | 14 | 3.96 |
| -7.64% | Apr 2004 | Apr 2004 | 1 | Oct 2004 | 6 | 7 | 4.46 |
| -7.57% | Jun 2002 | Oct 2002 | 5 | May 2003 | 7 | 12 | 4.67 |
| -7.41% | Oct 1979 | Oct 1979 | 1 | Dec 1979 | 2 | 3 | 4.01 |
Rolling Returns
( more details)
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
MARC FABER PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 December 1993 - 30 November 2023 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1976 - 30 November 2023 (~48 years)
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| Rolling Period |
Worst Period |
15th Percentile |
50th Percentile |
85th Percentile |
Best Period |
Latest | Negative Periods |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ann. Return |
From To |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
From To |
Growth of 1$ |
|||
| 1Y | -27.56 |
03/2008 02/2009 |
0.72$ | 0.21 | 1.00$ | 7.24 | 1.07$ | 17.09 | 1.17$ | 42.34 |
04/2009 03/2010 |
1.42$ | 6.11 | 14.04% |
| 2Y | -12.17 |
03/2007 02/2009 |
0.77$ | 2.54 | 1.05$ | 6.58 | 1.13$ | 14.57 | 1.31$ | 31.23 |
03/2009 02/2011 |
1.72$ | -1.96 | 7.72% |
| 3Y | -3.16 |
04/2006 03/2009 |
0.90$ | 3.80 | 1.11$ | 6.26 | 1.19$ | 13.75 | 1.47$ | 23.08 |
03/2009 02/2012 |
1.86$ | 2.56 | 1.23% |
| 5Y | 2.82 |
10/1997 09/2002 |
1.14$ | 4.63 | 1.25$ | 7.37 | 1.42$ | 10.93 | 1.67$ | 17.27 |
11/2002 10/2007 |
2.21$ | 6.36 | 0.00% |
| 7Y | 3.58 |
04/2013 03/2020 |
1.27$ | 5.46 | 1.45$ | 7.01 | 1.60$ | 10.98 | 2.07$ | 12.89 |
11/2000 10/2007 |
2.33$ | 6.01 | 0.00% |
| 10Y | 3.88 |
10/2012 09/2022 |
1.46$ | 6.05 | 1.79$ | 8.29 | 2.21$ | 10.02 | 2.59$ | 11.86 |
10/2002 09/2012 |
3.06$ | 5.43 | 0.00% |
| 15Y | 4.95 |
11/2007 10/2022 |
2.06$ | 6.92 | 2.72$ | 8.61 | 3.45$ | 9.10 | 3.69$ | 9.44 |
05/1996 04/2011 |
3.87$ | 7.85 | 0.00% |
| 20Y | 7.14 |
11/2003 10/2023 |
3.97$ | 7.68 | 4.39$ | 8.11 | 4.75$ | 8.60 | 5.20$ | 9.06 |
11/2001 10/2021 |
5.66$ | 7.37 | 0.00% |
| 30Y | 7.22 |
12/1993 11/2023 |
8.10$ | 7.22 | 8.10$ | 7.22 | 8.10$ | 7.22 | 8.10$ | 7.22 |
12/1993 11/2023 |
8.10$ | 7.22 | 0.00% |
| Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods | ||||||||||||||
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| Rolling Period |
Worst Period |
15th Percentile |
50th Percentile |
85th Percentile |
Best Period |
Latest | Negative Periods |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ann. Return |
From To |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
From To |
Growth of 1$ |
|||
| 1Y | -27.73 |
03/2008 02/2009 |
0.72$ | -1.58 | 0.98$ | 4.63 | 1.04$ | 13.99 | 1.13$ | 39.12 |
04/2009 03/2010 |
1.39$ | 2.68 | 22.92% |
| 2Y | -13.99 |
03/2007 02/2009 |
0.73$ | 0.45 | 1.00$ | 4.32 | 1.08$ | 11.29 | 1.23$ | 28.50 |
03/2009 02/2011 |
1.65$ | -6.82 | 12.17% |
| 3Y | -5.24 |
03/2006 02/2009 |
0.85$ | 1.32 | 1.03$ | 4.15 | 1.12$ | 10.67 | 1.35$ | 20.23 |
03/2009 02/2012 |
1.73$ | -3.00 | 8.00% |
| 5Y | -0.26 |
10/2017 09/2022 |
0.98$ | 2.55 | 1.13$ | 4.94 | 1.27$ | 8.38 | 1.49$ | 13.98 |
11/2002 10/2007 |
1.92$ | 2.20 | 0.66% |
| 7Y | 0.56 |
10/2016 09/2023 |
1.03$ | 3.05 | 1.23$ | 5.06 | 1.41$ | 8.25 | 1.74$ | 9.98 |
11/2000 10/2007 |
1.94$ | 2.40 | 0.00% |
| 10Y | 1.32 |
10/2012 09/2022 |
1.14$ | 4.12 | 1.49$ | 5.90 | 1.77$ | 7.39 | 2.03$ | 9.27 |
04/2003 03/2013 |
2.42$ | 2.54 | 0.00% |
| 15Y | 2.49 |
11/2007 10/2022 |
1.44$ | 4.41 | 1.91$ | 6.12 | 2.43$ | 6.63 | 2.61$ | 7.13 |
08/2001 07/2016 |
2.81$ | 5.22 | 0.00% |
| 20Y | 4.45 |
11/2003 10/2023 |
2.38$ | 5.35 | 2.83$ | 5.72 | 3.04$ | 6.25 | 3.35$ | 6.67 |
11/2001 10/2021 |
3.63$ | 4.66 | 0.00% |
| 30Y | 4.59 |
12/1993 11/2023 |
3.84$ | 4.59 | 3.84$ | 4.59 | 3.84$ | 4.59 | 3.84$ | 4.59 |
12/1993 11/2023 |
3.84$ | 4.59 | 0.00% |
| Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods | ||||||||||||||
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| Rolling Period |
Worst Period |
15th Percentile |
50th Percentile |
85th Percentile |
Best Period |
Latest | Negative Periods |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ann. Return |
From To |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
From To |
Growth of 1$ |
|||
| 1Y | -27.56 |
03/2008 02/2009 |
0.72$ | 0.40 | 1.00$ | 8.83 | 1.08$ | 20.45 | 1.20$ | 54.30 |
02/1979 01/1980 |
1.54$ | 6.11 | 13.65% |
| 2Y | -12.17 |
03/2007 02/2009 |
0.77$ | 3.18 | 1.06$ | 8.44 | 1.17$ | 16.98 | 1.36$ | 36.20 |
02/1978 01/1980 |
1.85$ | -1.96 | 5.98% |
| 3Y | -3.16 |
04/2006 03/2009 |
0.90$ | 4.31 | 1.13$ | 8.07 | 1.26$ | 15.75 | 1.55$ | 27.82 |
02/1977 01/1980 |
2.08$ | 2.56 | 0.74% |
| 5Y | 2.82 |
10/1997 09/2002 |
1.14$ | 5.29 | 1.29$ | 8.48 | 1.50$ | 13.78 | 1.90$ | 21.14 |
01/1976 12/1980 |
2.60$ | 6.36 | 0.00% |
| 7Y | 3.58 |
04/2013 03/2020 |
1.27$ | 6.04 | 1.50$ | 8.50 | 1.77$ | 12.38 | 2.26$ | 17.17 |
06/1976 05/1983 |
3.03$ | 6.01 | 0.00% |
| 10Y | 3.88 |
10/2012 09/2022 |
1.46$ | 6.43 | 1.86$ | 8.63 | 2.28$ | 11.44 | 2.95$ | 16.86 |
09/1976 08/1986 |
4.74$ | 5.43 | 0.00% |
| 15Y | 4.95 |
11/2007 10/2022 |
2.06$ | 7.20 | 2.83$ | 8.86 | 3.57$ | 10.31 | 4.35$ | 13.37 |
06/1976 05/1991 |
6.57$ | 7.85 | 0.00% |
| 20Y | 6.91 |
03/1989 02/2009 |
3.80$ | 7.90 | 4.57$ | 8.64 | 5.24$ | 9.50 | 6.13$ | 12.20 |
01/1976 12/1995 |
10.00$ | 7.37 | 0.00% |
| 30Y | 6.89 |
11/1993 10/2023 |
7.37$ | 7.75 | 9.39$ | 8.89 | 12.86$ | 10.33 | 19.09$ | 11.24 |
09/1976 08/2006 |
24.43$ | 7.22 | 0.00% |
| Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods | ||||||||||||||
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| Rolling Period |
Worst Period |
15th Percentile |
50th Percentile |
85th Percentile |
Best Period |
Latest | Negative Periods |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ann. Return |
From To |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
From To |
Growth of 1$ |
|||
| 1Y | -27.73 |
03/2008 02/2009 |
0.72$ | -2.20 | 0.97$ | 5.24 | 1.05$ | 15.55 | 1.15$ | 39.12 |
04/2009 03/2010 |
1.39$ | 2.68 | 23.40% |
| 2Y | -13.99 |
03/2007 02/2009 |
0.73$ | 0.29 | 1.00$ | 5.40 | 1.11$ | 11.93 | 1.25$ | 28.50 |
03/2009 02/2011 |
1.65$ | -6.82 | 13.41% |
| 3Y | -5.24 |
03/2006 02/2009 |
0.85$ | 1.39 | 1.04$ | 4.65 | 1.14$ | 11.22 | 1.37$ | 20.23 |
03/2009 02/2012 |
1.73$ | -3.00 | 7.96% |
| 5Y | -0.26 |
10/2017 09/2022 |
0.98$ | 2.76 | 1.14$ | 5.34 | 1.29$ | 8.77 | 1.52$ | 16.41 |
08/1982 07/1987 |
2.13$ | 2.20 | 0.39% |
| 7Y | 0.56 |
10/2016 09/2023 |
1.03$ | 3.45 | 1.26$ | 5.41 | 1.44$ | 8.19 | 1.73$ | 11.35 |
08/1982 07/1989 |
2.12$ | 2.40 | 0.00% |
| 10Y | 1.32 |
10/2012 09/2022 |
1.14$ | 4.00 | 1.47$ | 5.71 | 1.74$ | 7.70 | 2.09$ | 9.53 |
09/1976 08/1986 |
2.48$ | 2.54 | 0.00% |
| 15Y | 2.49 |
11/2007 10/2022 |
1.44$ | 4.37 | 1.89$ | 6.04 | 2.41$ | 6.70 | 2.64$ | 7.97 |
08/1982 07/1997 |
3.15$ | 5.22 | 0.00% |
| 20Y | 3.97 |
03/1989 02/2009 |
2.17$ | 5.17 | 2.73$ | 5.72 | 3.04$ | 6.39 | 3.44$ | 6.69 |
11/1990 10/2010 |
3.65$ | 4.66 | 0.00% |
| 30Y | 4.26 |
11/1993 10/2023 |
3.49$ | 5.06 | 4.39$ | 5.71 | 5.28$ | 6.49 | 6.58$ | 7.05 |
07/1982 06/2012 |
7.72$ | 4.59 | 0.00% |
| Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods | ||||||||||||||
If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Marc Faber Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.
Seasonality
In which months is it better to invest in Marc Faber Portfolio?
Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
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| Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Average Gain Frequency |
1.82
60% |
-1.59
20% |
-0.18
80% |
1.64
80% |
0.09
40% |
0.73
60% |
2.70
100% |
-0.14
60% |
-3.60
20% |
1.03
60% |
3.05
60% |
1.34
60% |
| Best |
6.8 2023 |
0.6 2019 |
2.9 2023 |
7.0 2020 |
2.4 2020 |
4.2 2019 |
5.5 2020 |
3.0 2019 |
0.1 2019 |
3.7 2021 |
6.9 2023 |
4.5 2021 |
| Worst |
-4.1 2022 |
-4.4 2023 |
-8.3 2020 |
-4.5 2022 |
-1.9 2023 |
-4.5 2022 |
0.4 2019 |
-3.9 2022 |
-7.2 2022 |
-1.5 2020 |
-1.4 2021 |
-2.2 2018 |
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1976 - Nov 2023
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| Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Average Gain Frequency |
1.69
70% |
-0.38
40% |
0.31
60% |
1.07
70% |
0.13
50% |
0.82
60% |
1.72
90% |
-0.15
60% |
-2.38
10% |
0.62
60% |
1.42
60% |
0.89
60% |
| Best |
6.8 2023 |
4.2 2014 |
4.3 2016 |
7.0 2020 |
2.4 2020 |
4.7 2016 |
5.5 2020 |
3.0 2019 |
0.1 2019 |
3.8 2015 |
6.9 2023 |
4.5 2021 |
| Worst |
-4.1 2022 |
-4.4 2023 |
-8.3 2020 |
-4.5 2022 |
-1.9 2023 |
-4.5 2022 |
-1.3 2014 |
-3.9 2022 |
-7.2 2022 |
-2.9 2016 |
-3.2 2016 |
-2.2 2018 |
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1976 - Nov 2023
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| Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Average Gain Frequency |
1.28
67% |
0.08
54% |
0.56
60% |
1.30
81% |
0.44
58% |
0.57
63% |
1.13
71% |
0.62
71% |
0.34
56% |
0.16
54% |
1.25
71% |
1.70
79% |
| Best |
9.6 1980 |
4.2 2014 |
5.0 1986 |
7.8 2009 |
5.9 2009 |
8.4 1980 |
5.8 2009 |
9.7 1982 |
6.6 1979 |
8.1 1982 |
6.9 2023 |
9.4 1979 |
| Worst |
-6.1 2009 |
-6.6 2009 |
-11.8 1980 |
-7.3 2004 |
-4.7 2012 |
-4.5 2022 |
-4.4 2002 |
-7.1 1998 |
-8.0 2011 |
-17.5 2008 |
-4.6 1978 |
-2.5 1981 |
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1976 - Nov 2023
Monthly Returns
This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Marc Faber Portfolio over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.
MARC FABER PORTFOLIO
Monthly Returns Distribution
Data Source: 1 December 1993 - 30 November 2023 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1976 - 30 November 2023 (~48 years)
224 Positive Months (62%) - 136 Negative Months (38%)
376 Positive Months (65%) - 199 Negative Months (35%)
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(Scroll down to see all data)
Investment Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated.
They have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
In particular, the series derived from equivalent datasets are:
They have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
In particular, the series derived from equivalent datasets are:
- VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate, up to December 2004
- VV - Vanguard Large-Cap, up to December 2004
- VEA - Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets, up to December 2007
- EEM - iShares MSCI Emerging Markets, up to December 2003
- BND - Vanguard Total Bond Market, up to December 2007
- GLD - SPDR Gold Trust, up to December 2004
Portfolio efficiency
The following portfolios granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.
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30 Years Stats (%) |
% Allocation |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | Return▾ | Dev.Std | Drawdown | Stocks | Bonds | Comm | ||
| Couch Potato | +7.83 | 8.76 | -27.04 | 50 | 50 | 0 | ||
| Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Momentum | +7.75 | 6.99 | -21.11 | 40 | 60 | 0 | ||
| Golden Butterfly | +7.46 | 7.68 | -17.79 | 40 | 40 | 20 | ||
| Marc Faber Portfolio | +7.22 | 9.65 | -28.82 | 50 | 25 | 25 | ||
Here's a list containing the Best Classic Portfolios, with the highest returns over 30 Years and High Risk categorization.
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30 Years Stats (%) |
% Allocation |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | Return▾ | Dev.Std | Drawdown | Stocks | Bonds | Comm | ||
| Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Momentum | +9.34 | 9.56 | -32.52 | 60 | 40 | 0 | ||
| Simple Path to Wealth | +8.78 | 11.75 | -38.53 | 75 | 25 | 0 | ||
| Aim Bold Strategy | +8.24 | 9.93 | -30.09 | 45 | 40 | 15 | ||
| Late Sixties and Beyond | +8.13 | 11.69 | -41.80 | 71 | 29 | 0 | ||
| Talmud Portfolio | +8.01 | 10.81 | -40.17 | 66.7 | 33.3 | 0 | ||
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