Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns

Data Source: from January 1970 to November 2023 (~54 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 November 2023
Live Update: Dec 11 2023, 10:00AM Eastern Time
PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
0.01%
1 Day
Dec 11 2023, 10:00AM Eastern Time
0.84%
Current Month
December 2023

The Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio is a Very High Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 3 ETFs.

It's exposed for 80% on the Stock Market.

In the last 30 Years, the Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio obtained a 7.71% compound annual return, with a 12.39% standard deviation.

Table of contents

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

80% Stocks
20% Fixed Income
0% Commodities

The Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight (%) Ticker Currency ETF Name Investment Themes
50.00
VTI
USD Vanguard Total Stock Market Equity, U.S., Large Cap
30.00
VEU
USD Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Equity, Global ex-US, Large Cap
20.00
BND
USD Vanguard Total Bond Market Bond, U.S., All-Term

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Nov 30, 2023

The Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming: December 2023 return is calculated on the hypothesis of a newly built portfolio, with the starting asset allocation.
BOGLEHEADS THREE FUNDS PORTFOLIO
Consolidated returns as of 30 November 2023
Live Update: Dec 11 2023, 10:00AM Eastern Time
Swipe left to see all data
  Chg (%) Return (%) Return (%) as of Nov 30, 2023
  1 Day Time ET(*) Dec 2023 1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~54Y)
Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio 0.01 0.84 8.16 6.50 9.13 7.75 7.10 7.71 9.41
US Inflation Adjusted return 8.16 5.27 5.60 3.53 4.17 5.06 5.23
Components
VTI
USD Vanguard Total Stock Market 0.02 10:00AM, Dec 11 2023 1.17 9.42 10.04 12.72 11.71 11.16 9.90 10.49
VEU
USD Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US 0.06 09:59AM, Dec 11 2023 0.38 8.23 5.00 8.02 5.37 3.75 5.13 8.04
BND
USD Vanguard Total Bond Market -0.11 09:59AM, Dec 11 2023 0.72 4.54 -0.60 0.97 0.72 1.33 4.12 6.47
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1970
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Oct 2023. Waiting for updates, inflation of Nov 2023 is set to 0%. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 3.35% , 5Y: 4.07% , 10Y: 2.82% , 30Y: 2.52%

In 2022, the Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio granted a 1.89% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Capital Growth as of Nov 30, 2023

An investment of 1$, since December 1993, now would be worth 9.29$, with a total return of 829.02% (7.71% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 4.40$, with a net total return of 340.25% (5.06% annualized).
An investment of 1$, since January 1970, now would be worth 127.48$, with a total return of 12647.96% (9.41% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 15.62$, with a net total return of 1462.05% (5.23% annualized).

Portfolio Metrics as of Nov 30, 2023

Metrics of Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio, updated as of 30 November 2023.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
BOGLEHEADS THREE FUNDS PORTFOLIO
Advanced Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 1970 - 30 November 2023 (~54 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of Nov 30, 2023
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
(~54Y)
Investment Return (%) 8.16 1.18 6.50 9.13 4.00 7.75 7.10 7.58 7.71 9.41
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) details 8.16 0.96 5.27 5.60 -1.64 3.53 4.17 4.87 5.06 5.23
US Inflation (%) 0.00 0.21 1.17 3.35 5.74 4.07 2.82 2.59 2.52 3.97
Waiting for updates, inflation of Nov 2023 is temporarily set to 0%. Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -8.74 -23.18 -23.18 -23.18 -43.68 -43.68 -43.68
Start to Recovery (# months) details 4* 23* 23* 23* 42 42 42
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2007 11 2007 11 2007 11
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 9 9 9 16 16 16
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2009 02 2009 02
Bottom to End (# months) 1 14 14 14 26 26 26
End (yyyy mm) - - - - 2011 04 2011 04 2011 04
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
-33.38 -33.38
Start to Recovery (# months) details 57 57
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2007 11 2000 04 2000 04
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 9 9 9 16 30 30
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2002 09 2002 09
Bottom to End (# months) 1 14 14 14 26 27 27
End (yyyy mm) - - - - 2011 04 2004 12 2004 12
Longest negative period (# months) details 9 34 34 34 63 118 118
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 02 2021 01 2021 01 2021 01 2003 12 1999 05 1999 05
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2009 02 2009 02 2009 02
Annualized Return (%) -2.41 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.75 -0.35 -0.35
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -9.33 -28.02 -28.02 -28.02 -44.54 -44.54 -44.62
Start to Recovery (# months) details 4* 27* 27* 27* 63 63 124
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2021 09 2021 09 2021 09 2007 11 2007 11 1973 01
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 13 13 13 16 16 21
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2009 02 1974 09
Bottom to End (# months) 1 14 14 14 47 47 103
End (yyyy mm) - - - - 2013 01 2013 01 1983 04
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -3.64
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
-36.99
same as
deepest
Start to Recovery (# months) details 5 72
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 02 2021 09 2021 09 2021 09 2007 11 2000 04 1973 01
Start to Bottom (# months) 1 13 13 13 16 30 21
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 02 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2002 09 1974 09
Bottom to End (# months) 4 14 14 14 47 42 103
End (yyyy mm) 2023 06 - - - 2013 01 2006 03 1983 04
Longest negative period (# months) details 11 36* 47 58 68 141 151
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2022 12 2020 12 2019 12 2017 12 2006 02 1997 06 1970 01
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2023 11 2023 10 2022 09 2011 09 2009 02 1982 07
Annualized Return (%) -2.58 -1.64 -0.26 -0.25 -0.48 -0.09 -0.60
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Standard Deviation (%) 14.06 14.17 15.21 12.21 12.63 12.39 12.61
Sharpe Ratio 0.30 0.15 0.40 0.50 0.50 0.44 0.43
Sortino Ratio 0.46 0.20 0.54 0.67 0.66 0.58 0.58
Ulcer Index 3.38 10.06 8.39 6.42 9.83 10.84 9.33
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.65 0.28 0.51 0.58 0.60 0.62 0.75
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 1.04 0.17 0.33 0.31 0.17 0.18 0.22
% Positive Months details 50% 58% 61% 65% 64% 63% 63%
Positive Months 6 21 37 79 154 228 410
Negative Months 6 15 23 41 86 132 237
LONG TERM RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 7.10 12.26 12.26 18.74
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 5.17 0.39 0.39
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 4.17 10.31 10.31 12.99
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 3.33 -2.13 -2.53
ROLLING PERIOD RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Over the latest 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 48.26 21.87 18.37 12.26 8.55 7.71
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -37.11 -12.10 -2.39 0.39 4.66
% Positive Periods 77% 84% 97% 100% 100% 100%
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 45.15 19.04 16.00 10.31 6.11 5.06
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -37.26 -14.22 -4.91 -2.13 2.53
% Positive Periods 71% 79% 81% 95% 100% 100%
Over all the available data source (Jan 1970 - Nov 2023)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 53.63 35.11 29.05 18.74 15.10 13.08
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -37.11 -12.10 -2.39 0.39 4.66 7.28
% Positive Periods 80% 89% 98% 100% 100% 100%
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 49.77 31.15 25.12 12.99 10.81 7.76
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -38.35 -14.22 -5.61 -2.53 2.53 4.55
% Positive Periods 71% 80% 82% 94% 100% 100%
WITHDRAWAL RATES (WR)
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Safe WR (%) 33.30 22.98 12.57 7.88 6.91 5.03
Perpetual WR (%) 0.00 3.41 4.00 4.64 4.82 4.97
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio
  • Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
  • Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation)
  • Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio
  • Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame
  • Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the original portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money (dollar amount withdrawal).
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year, while retaining the inflation adjusted portfolio balance (percentage withdrawal).
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Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.

Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1. If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS
Monthly correlations as of 30 November 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Asset
VTI
VEU
BND
VTI
-
0.91
0.80
VEU
0.91
-
0.87
BND
0.80
0.87
-
Asset
VTI
VEU
BND
VTI
-
0.89
0.48
VEU
0.89
-
0.54
BND
0.48
0.54
-
Asset
VTI
VEU
BND
VTI
-
0.86
0.37
VEU
0.86
-
0.42
BND
0.37
0.42
-
Asset
VTI
VEU
BND
VTI
-
0.84
0.16
VEU
0.84
-
0.16
BND
0.16
0.16
-
Asset
VTI
VEU
BND
VTI
-
0.79
0.22
VEU
0.79
-
0.20
BND
0.22
0.20
-

If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

BOGLEHEADS THREE FUNDS PORTFOLIO
Drawdown periods
Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 December 1993 - 30 November 2023 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1970 - 30 November 2023 (~54 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months Ulcer Index
-43.68% Nov 2007 Feb 2009 16 Apr 2011 26 42 20.19
-33.38% Apr 2000 Sep 2002 30 Dec 2004 27 57 17.93
-23.18% Jan 2022 Sep 2022 9 in progress 14 23 12.47
-17.01% Jan 2020 Mar 2020 3 Jul 2020 4 7 7.68
-15.77% May 2011 Sep 2011 5 Sep 2012 12 17 6.20
-12.46% Jul 1998 Aug 1998 2 Nov 1998 3 5 6.66
-10.53% Feb 2018 Dec 2018 11 Apr 2019 4 15 4.26
-9.88% Jun 2015 Feb 2016 9 Jul 2016 5 14 5.19
-4.84% Feb 1994 Mar 1994 2 Aug 1994 5 7 2.88
-4.68% May 2019 May 2019 1 Jun 2019 1 2 2.70
-4.61% Aug 1997 Aug 1997 1 Sep 1997 1 2 2.66
-4.11% Oct 1997 Oct 1997 1 Jan 1998 3 4 2.24
-4.06% Sep 1994 Nov 1994 3 Mar 1995 4 7 2.27
-3.99% Jan 2000 Jan 2000 1 Mar 2000 2 3 2.18
-3.98% Sep 2020 Oct 2020 2 Nov 2020 1 3 2.30
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months Ulcer Index
-44.54% Nov 2007 Feb 2009 16 Jan 2013 47 63 18.98
-36.99% Apr 2000 Sep 2002 30 Mar 2006 42 72 19.70
-28.02% Sep 2021 Sep 2022 13 in progress 14 27 16.75
-17.38% Jan 2020 Mar 2020 3 Aug 2020 5 8 7.37
-12.80% May 1998 Aug 1998 4 Nov 1998 3 7 6.06
-11.73% Feb 2018 Dec 2018 11 Oct 2019 10 21 4.79
-9.91% Mar 2015 Feb 2016 12 Dec 2016 10 22 4.48
-5.65% Feb 1994 Nov 1994 10 Apr 1995 5 15 3.69
-4.79% Aug 1997 Aug 1997 1 Feb 1998 6 7 2.69
-4.28% Jan 2000 Jan 2000 1 Mar 2000 2 3 2.51
-4.15% Sep 2020 Oct 2020 2 Nov 2020 1 3 2.41
-4.02% Jun 1996 Jul 1996 2 Sep 1996 2 4 2.17
-3.74% May 2006 Jun 2006 2 Sep 2006 3 5 2.61
-3.37% Jan 2014 Jan 2014 1 Feb 2014 1 2 1.95
-3.16% Jul 1999 Sep 1999 3 Oct 1999 1 4 1.77
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months Ulcer Index
-43.68% Nov 2007 Feb 2009 16 Apr 2011 26 42 20.19
-34.07% Jan 1973 Sep 1974 21 Jan 1976 16 37 15.02
-33.38% Apr 2000 Sep 2002 30 Dec 2004 27 57 17.93
-23.18% Jan 2022 Sep 2022 9 in progress 14 23 12.47
-19.21% Sep 1987 Nov 1987 3 Jan 1989 14 17 8.97
-17.24% Jan 1970 Jun 1970 6 Dec 1970 6 12 8.65
-17.01% Jan 2020 Mar 2020 3 Jul 2020 4 7 7.68
-15.77% May 2011 Sep 2011 5 Sep 2012 12 17 6.20
-15.31% Jan 1990 Sep 1990 9 Feb 1991 5 14 7.86
-14.03% Dec 1980 Jul 1982 20 Oct 1982 3 23 6.99
-12.46% Jul 1998 Aug 1998 2 Nov 1998 3 5 6.66
-10.53% Feb 2018 Dec 2018 11 Apr 2019 4 15 4.26
-10.43% Feb 1980 Mar 1980 2 Jun 1980 3 5 4.80
-9.88% Jun 2015 Feb 2016 9 Jul 2016 5 14 5.19
-8.16% Dec 1983 May 1984 6 Aug 1984 3 9 4.47
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months Ulcer Index
-44.62% Jan 1973 Sep 1974 21 Apr 1983 103 124 21.95
-44.54% Nov 2007 Feb 2009 16 Jan 2013 47 63 18.98
-36.99% Apr 2000 Sep 2002 30 Mar 2006 42 72 19.70
-28.02% Sep 2021 Sep 2022 13 in progress 14 27 16.75
-19.91% Sep 1987 Nov 1987 3 Jul 1989 20 23 9.25
-19.59% Jan 1970 Jun 1970 6 Jan 1971 7 13 10.40
-19.52% Jan 1990 Sep 1990 9 Dec 1991 15 24 9.09
-17.38% Jan 2020 Mar 2020 3 Aug 2020 5 8 7.37
-12.80% May 1998 Aug 1998 4 Nov 1998 3 7 6.06
-11.73% Feb 2018 Dec 2018 11 Oct 2019 10 21 4.79
-11.40% Jul 1983 May 1984 11 Jan 1985 8 19 5.33
-9.91% Mar 2015 Feb 2016 12 Dec 2016 10 22 4.48
-6.55% May 1971 Jul 1971 3 Dec 1971 5 8 3.59
-5.65% Feb 1994 Nov 1994 10 Apr 1995 5 15 3.69
-5.62% Jan 1992 Mar 1992 3 Feb 1993 11 14 3.35

Rolling Returns

( more details)

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

BOGLEHEADS THREE FUNDS PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 December 1993 - 30 November 2023 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1970 - 30 November 2023 (~54 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -37.11 03/2008
02/2009
0.62$ -6.89 0.93$ 11.15 1.11$ 20.08 1.20$ 48.26 03/2009
02/2010
1.48$ 9.13 22.92%
2Y -20.26 03/2007
02/2009
0.63$ -2.07 0.95$ 10.74 1.22$ 16.86 1.36$ 33.09 03/2009
02/2011
1.77$ -1.58 19.58%
3Y -12.10 04/2000
03/2003
0.67$ -0.18 0.99$ 9.00 1.29$ 14.76 1.51$ 21.87 03/2009
02/2012
1.81$ 4.00 15.38%
5Y -2.39 03/2004
02/2009
0.88$ 1.91 1.09$ 6.88 1.39$ 12.95 1.83$ 18.37 03/2009
02/2014
2.32$ 7.75 2.66%
7Y 0.64 03/2002
02/2009
1.04$ 4.91 1.39$ 6.81 1.58$ 9.44 1.87$ 12.61 03/2009
02/2016
2.29$ 8.28 0.00%
10Y 0.39 03/1999
02/2009
1.04$ 5.37 1.68$ 7.72 2.10$ 9.11 2.39$ 12.26 03/2009
02/2019
3.17$ 7.10 0.00%
15Y 4.53 03/1994
02/2009
1.94$ 5.53 2.24$ 6.69 2.64$ 7.73 3.05$ 9.59 12/2008
11/2023
3.94$ 9.59 0.00%
20Y 4.66 04/2000
03/2020
2.48$ 6.03 3.22$ 7.12 3.95$ 8.07 4.71$ 8.55 04/2003
03/2023
5.15$ 7.58 0.00%
30Y 7.71 12/1993
11/2023
9.29$ 7.71 9.29$ 7.71 9.29$ 7.71 9.29$ 7.71 12/1993
11/2023
9.29$ 7.71 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -37.26 03/2008
02/2009
0.62$ -8.73 0.91$ 8.15 1.08$ 17.05 1.17$ 45.15 03/2009
02/2010
1.45$ 5.60 28.94%
2Y -21.91 03/2007
02/2009
0.60$ -5.69 0.88$ 7.53 1.15$ 13.80 1.29$ 30.32 03/2009
02/2011
1.69$ -6.45 21.96%
3Y -14.22 04/2000
03/2003
0.63$ -2.32 0.93$ 6.64 1.21$ 12.02 1.40$ 19.04 03/2009
02/2012
1.68$ -1.64 20.31%
5Y -4.91 03/2004
02/2009
0.77$ -0.29 0.98$ 4.90 1.27$ 10.20 1.62$ 16.00 03/2009
02/2014
2.10$ 3.53 18.94%
7Y -1.87 03/2002
02/2009
0.87$ 2.32 1.17$ 4.19 1.33$ 7.43 1.65$ 10.83 03/2009
02/2016
2.05$ 4.58 1.44%
10Y -2.13 03/1999
02/2009
0.80$ 3.05 1.35$ 5.26 1.67$ 6.98 1.96$ 10.31 03/2009
02/2019
2.66$ 4.17 4.56%
15Y 1.99 03/1994
02/2009
1.34$ 3.18 1.59$ 4.25 1.86$ 5.70 2.29$ 7.31 02/2003
01/2018
2.88$ 6.91 0.00%
20Y 2.53 04/2000
03/2020
1.64$ 3.82 2.11$ 4.84 2.57$ 5.54 2.94$ 6.11 11/2001
10/2021
3.27$ 4.87 0.00%
30Y 5.06 12/1993
11/2023
4.40$ 5.06 4.40$ 5.06 4.40$ 5.06 4.40$ 5.06 12/1993
11/2023
4.40$ 5.06 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -37.11 03/2008
02/2009
0.62$ -3.17 0.96$ 11.83 1.11$ 22.44 1.22$ 53.63 07/1982
06/1983
1.53$ 9.13 19.18%
2Y -20.26 03/2007
02/2009
0.63$ 1.72 1.03$ 11.13 1.23$ 17.84 1.38$ 38.80 10/1985
09/1987
1.92$ -1.58 13.62%
3Y -12.10 04/2000
03/2003
0.67$ 2.92 1.09$ 10.08 1.33$ 16.28 1.57$ 35.11 08/1984
07/1987
2.46$ 4.00 10.46%
5Y -2.39 03/2004
02/2009
0.88$ 3.88 1.20$ 9.91 1.60$ 14.99 2.01$ 29.05 08/1982
07/1987
3.57$ 7.75 1.36%
7Y 0.64 03/2002
02/2009
1.04$ 5.52 1.45$ 9.14 1.84$ 14.62 2.59$ 23.27 08/1982
07/1989
4.32$ 8.28 0.00%
10Y 0.39 03/1999
02/2009
1.04$ 6.38 1.85$ 9.30 2.43$ 14.66 3.92$ 18.74 09/1977
08/1987
5.56$ 7.10 0.00%
15Y 4.53 03/1994
02/2009
1.94$ 6.31 2.50$ 9.09 3.69$ 14.25 7.37$ 17.18 10/1974
09/1989
10.78$ 9.59 0.00%
20Y 4.66 04/2000
03/2020
2.48$ 6.90 3.79$ 9.59 6.23$ 13.39 12.34$ 15.10 04/1980
03/2000
16.66$ 7.58 0.00%
30Y 7.28 11/1993
10/2023
8.23$ 7.94 9.89$ 10.07 17.76$ 11.68 27.48$ 13.08 07/1970
06/2000
39.96$ 7.71 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -38.35 10/1973
09/1974
0.61$ -7.74 0.92$ 7.53 1.07$ 18.46 1.18$ 49.77 07/1982
06/1983
1.49$ 5.60 28.93%
2Y -23.30 10/1972
09/1974
0.58$ -3.51 0.93$ 6.17 1.12$ 14.02 1.29$ 34.84 05/1985
04/1987
1.81$ -6.45 20.51%
3Y -14.22 04/2000
03/2003
0.63$ -1.94 0.94$ 6.00 1.19$ 12.42 1.42$ 31.15 08/1984
07/1987
2.25$ -1.64 19.28%
5Y -5.61 02/1973
01/1978
0.74$ -0.22 0.98$ 5.31 1.29$ 11.47 1.72$ 25.12 08/1982
07/1987
3.06$ 3.53 17.35%
7Y -3.27 04/1973
03/1980
0.79$ 2.03 1.15$ 5.26 1.43$ 10.65 2.03$ 19.05 08/1982
07/1989
3.38$ 4.58 6.56%
10Y -2.53 08/1972
07/1982
0.77$ 2.75 1.31$ 5.84 1.76$ 10.05 2.60$ 12.99 08/1982
07/1992
3.39$ 4.17 5.30%
15Y 1.99 03/1994
02/2009
1.34$ 3.74 1.73$ 5.71 2.29$ 9.06 3.67$ 12.69 08/1982
07/1997
5.99$ 6.91 0.00%
20Y 2.53 04/2000
03/2020
1.64$ 4.55 2.43$ 5.65 2.99$ 8.46 5.07$ 10.81 04/1980
03/2000
7.79$ 4.87 0.00%
30Y 4.55 02/1973
01/2003
3.80$ 5.23 4.61$ 6.28 6.22$ 7.17 7.97$ 7.76 11/1977
10/2007
9.41$ 5.06 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
1.69
40%
-1.38
40%
-0.87
80%
1.83
80%
0.02
60%
1.49
80%
2.85
100%
-0.18
40%
-3.29
20%
1.38
60%
5.07
80%
0.05
60%
Best 6.8
2019
2.3
2019
2.7
2023
8.8
2020
4.1
2020
5.6
2019
6.0
2022
4.6
2020
1.6
2019
4.7
2022
9.8
2020
4.1
2020
Worst -4.2
2022
-5.6
2020
-11.5
2020
-7.3
2022
-4.7
2019
-6.7
2022
0.2
2019
-3.7
2022
-8.3
2022
-2.6
2023
-2.0
2021
-5.8
2018
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1970 - Nov 2023
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Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
0.65
40%
-0.04
50%
0.12
70%
1.40
90%
0.53
80%
0.80
70%
2.16
90%
-0.18
60%
-1.91
40%
0.79
60%
3.10
80%
0.21
60%
Best 6.8
2019
4.3
2015
6.1
2016
8.8
2020
4.1
2020
5.6
2019
6.0
2022
4.6
2020
1.7
2017
5.9
2015
9.8
2020
4.1
2020
Worst -4.3
2016
-5.6
2020
-11.5
2020
-7.3
2022
-4.7
2019
-6.7
2022
-1.5
2014
-5.5
2015
-8.3
2022
-6.4
2018
-2.0
2021
-5.8
2018
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1970 - Nov 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
0.99
59%
0.49
54%
0.93
67%
1.47
78%
0.48
59%
0.48
52%
0.94
61%
0.33
59%
-0.40
61%
0.71
59%
1.79
74%
1.62
77%
Best 10.7
1975
7.3
1986
7.5
1986
9.3
2009
8.2
1990
5.6
2019
7.7
1989
10.3
1982
7.7
2010
12.9
1974
9.8
2020
7.3
1971
Worst -8.3
2009
-8.0
2009
-11.5
2020
-8.4
1970
-7.0
2010
-6.7
2022
-6.9
2002
-11.8
1998
-8.3
2022
-15.3
2008
-8.7
1973
-5.8
2018
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1970 - Nov 2023

Monthly Returns

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

BOGLEHEADS THREE FUNDS PORTFOLIO
Monthly Returns Distribution
Data Source: 1 December 1993 - 30 November 2023 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1970 - 30 November 2023 (~54 years)
228 Positive Months (63%) - 132 Negative Months (37%)
410 Positive Months (63%) - 237 Negative Months (37%)
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(Scroll down to see all data)
Investment Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated.
They have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
You can see details about extended Data Sources here.

In particular, the series derived from equivalent datasets are:
  • VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market, up to December 2001
  • VEU - Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US, up to December 2007
  • BND - Vanguard Total Bond Market, up to December 2007

Portfolio efficiency

The following portfolios granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.

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30 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Author Return Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Stocks/Bonds 80/20 Momentum +10.76 12.35 -43.61 80 20 0
US Stocks Minimum Volatility +9.58 13.72 -43.27 100 0 0
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Momentum +9.34 9.56 -32.52 60 40 0
Stocks/Bonds 80/20 +9.02 12.49 -41.09 80 20 0
Simple Path to Wealth JL Collins +8.78 11.75 -38.53 75 25 0
Aim Bold Strategy Aim Ways +8.24 9.93 -30.09 45 40 15
Late Sixties and Beyond Burton Malkiel +8.13 11.69 -41.80 71 29 0
Weird Portfolio Value Stock Geek +8.02 10.75 -32.97 60 20 20
Talmud Portfolio Roger Gibson +8.01 10.81 -40.17 66.7 33.3 0
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 +7.99 9.61 -30.55 60 40 0
Yale Endowment David Swensen +7.98 10.99 -39.48 70 30 0
Seven Value Scott Burns +7.96 11.31 -41.22 71.5 28.5 0
Couch Potato Scott Burns +7.83 8.76 -27.04 50 50 0
Edge Select Moderately Aggressive Merrill Lynch +7.83 11.16 -38.23 69 31 0
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Momentum +7.75 6.99 -21.11 40 60 0
Three Funds Bogleheads +7.71 12.39 -43.68 80 20 0

Here's a list containing the Best Classic Portfolios, with the highest returns over 30 Years and Very High Risk categorization.

Swipe left to see all data
30 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Author Return Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Technology +13.75 24.01 -81.08 100 0 0
US Stocks Momentum +12.01 15.28 -53.85 100 0 0
Stocks/Bonds 80/20 Momentum +10.76 12.35 -43.61 80 20 0
US Stocks +9.90 15.52 -50.84 100 0 0
US Stocks Value +9.71 15.36 -55.41 100 0 0
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