Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns

Data Source: from January 1871 to November 2023 (~153 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 November 2023
Live Update: Dec 01 2023
PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
0.83%
1 Day
Dec 01 2023
0.83%
Current Month
December 2023

The Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio is a Medium Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 2 ETFs.

It's exposed for 40% on the Stock Market.

In the last 30 Years, the Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio obtained a 6.83% compound annual return, with a 6.98% standard deviation.

Table of contents

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

40% Stocks
60% Fixed Income
0% Commodities

The Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight (%) Ticker Currency ETF Name Investment Themes
40.00
VTI
USD Vanguard Total Stock Market Equity, U.S., Large Cap
60.00
BND
USD Vanguard Total Bond Market Bond, U.S., All-Term

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Nov 30, 2023

The Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming: December 2023 return is calculated on the hypothesis of a newly built portfolio, with the starting asset allocation.
STOCKS/BONDS 40/60 PORTFOLIO
Consolidated returns as of 30 November 2023
Live Update: Dec 01 2023
Swipe left to see all data
  Chg (%) Return (%) Return (%) as of Nov 30, 2023
  1 Day Time ET(*) Dec 2023 1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~153Y)
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio 0.83 0.83 6.63 3.81 5.92 5.34 5.41 6.83 6.71
US Inflation Adjusted return 6.63 2.61 2.49 1.22 2.52 4.20 4.50
Components
VTI
USD Vanguard Total Stock Market 0.84 Dec 01 2023 0.84 9.42 10.04 12.72 11.71 11.16 9.90 9.08
BND
USD Vanguard Total Bond Market 0.82 Dec 01 2023 0.82 4.54 -0.60 0.97 0.72 1.33 4.12 4.48
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1871
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Oct 2023. Waiting for updates, inflation of Nov 2023 is set to 0%. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 3.35% , 5Y: 4.07% , 10Y: 2.82% , 30Y: 2.52%

In 2022, the Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio granted a 1.87% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Capital Growth as of Nov 30, 2023

An investment of 1$, since December 1993, now would be worth 7.26$, with a total return of 625.84% (6.83% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 3.44$, with a net total return of 243.96% (4.20% annualized).
An investment of 1$, since January 1871, now would be worth 20677.31$, with a total return of 2067630.65% (6.71% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 838.27$, with a net total return of 83727.13% (4.50% annualized).

Portfolio Metrics as of Nov 30, 2023

Metrics of Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio, updated as of 30 November 2023.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
STOCKS/BONDS 40/60 PORTFOLIO
Advanced Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 30 November 2023 (~153 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of Nov 30, 2023
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
(~153Y)
Investment Return (%) 6.63 0.84 3.81 5.92 0.77 5.34 5.41 5.98 6.83 6.71
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) details 6.63 0.63 2.61 2.49 -4.70 1.22 2.52 3.30 4.20 4.50
US Inflation (%) 0.00 0.21 1.17 3.35 5.74 4.07 2.82 2.59 2.52 2.12
Waiting for updates, inflation of Nov 2023 is temporarily set to 0%. Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -6.58 -18.63 -18.63 -18.63 -19.17 -19.17 -43.68
Start to Recovery (# months) details 4* 23* 23* 23* 25 25 73
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2007 11 2007 11 1929 09
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 9 9 9 16 16 33
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2009 02 1932 05
Bottom to End (# months) 1 14 14 14 9 9 40
End (yyyy mm) - - - - 2009 11 2009 11 1935 09
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
-8.59
same as
deepest
Start to Recovery (# months) details 33
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2007 11 2000 09 1929 09
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 9 9 9 16 25 33
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2002 09 1932 05
Bottom to End (# months) 1 14 14 14 9 8 40
End (yyyy mm) - - - - 2009 11 2003 05 1935 09
Longest negative period (# months) details 11 35 38 38 50 50 85
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2022 12 2020 12 2020 09 2020 09 2005 01 2005 01 1925 06
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2009 02 2009 02 1932 06
Annualized Return (%) -0.73 -1.40 -0.47 -0.47 -0.46 -0.46 -0.01
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -7.18 -24.02 -24.02 -24.02 -24.02 -24.02 -45.57
Start to Recovery (# months) details 4* 27* 27* 27* 27* 27* 108
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2021 09 2021 09 2021 09 2021 09 2021 09 1916 01
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 13 13 13 13 13 54
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 1920 06
Bottom to End (# months) 1 14 14 14 14 14 54
End (yyyy mm) - - - - - - 1924 12
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -3.23
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
-20.41 -12.73 -30.32
Start to Recovery (# months) details 5 30 40 122
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 02 2021 09 2021 09 2021 09 2007 11 2000 09 1973 01
Start to Bottom (# months) 1 13 13 13 16 25 21
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 02 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2002 09 1974 09
Bottom to End (# months) 4 14 14 14 14 15 101
End (yyyy mm) 2023 06 - - - 2010 04 2003 12 1983 02
Longest negative period (# months) details 11 36* 59 71 71 116 281
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2022 12 2020 12 2018 12 2017 12 2017 12 1999 07 1897 08
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2023 11 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2009 02 1920 12
Annualized Return (%) -4.23 -4.70 -0.08 -0.19 -0.19 -0.05 -0.01
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Standard Deviation (%) 10.65 10.30 9.96 7.69 7.08 6.98 7.38
Sharpe Ratio 0.10 -0.11 0.37 0.57 0.66 0.66 0.37
Sortino Ratio 0.15 -0.15 0.50 0.76 0.87 0.87 0.52
Ulcer Index 2.51 9.35 7.39 5.34 4.82 4.25 5.46
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.56 0.08 0.54 0.70 0.84 0.98 0.91
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.90 0.04 0.29 0.29 0.31 0.36 0.15
% Positive Months details 50% 55% 63% 67% 68% 67% 63%
Positive Months 6 20 38 81 165 244 1174
Negative Months 6 16 22 39 75 116 661
LONG TERM RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 5.41 8.88 9.67 14.86
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 4.85 2.89 2.03
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 2.52 7.00 7.07 12.38
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 2.00 0.30 -4.00
ROLLING PERIOD RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Over the latest 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 25.63 17.79 15.33 9.67 8.13 6.83
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -16.25 -2.41 0.55 2.89 5.38
% Positive Periods 85% 97% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 23.87 15.00 12.66 7.07 5.69 4.20
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -22.02 -5.05 -2.04 0.30 3.03
% Positive Periods 78% 86% 97% 100% 100% 100%
Over all the available data source (Jan 1871 - Nov 2023)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 54.88 21.82 20.32 14.86 13.30 11.12
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -31.23 -15.47 -4.38 2.03 3.62 3.94
% Positive Periods 81% 96% 97% 100% 100% 100%
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 65.85 18.67 16.38 12.38 9.08 7.42
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -24.91 -12.93 -10.27 -4.00 -0.69 1.16
% Positive Periods 69% 82% 86% 89% 98% 100%
WITHDRAWAL RATES (WR)
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Safe WR (%) 31.70 22.21 12.12 7.01 6.57 6.74
Perpetual WR (%) 0.00 1.20 2.46 3.20 4.03 4.31
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio
  • Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
  • Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation)
  • Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio
  • Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame
  • Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the original portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money (dollar amount withdrawal).
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year, while retaining the inflation adjusted portfolio balance (percentage withdrawal).

Talking about withdrawal rates, how would you manage your early retirement with the Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio? Read more here

Analyze your Portfolio: Backtest Now!
Explore historical data since 1871 and fine-tune your investment strategy for better results.

Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.

Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1. If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS
Monthly correlations as of 30 November 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Asset
VTI
BND
VTI
-
0.80
BND
0.80
-
Asset
VTI
BND
VTI
-
0.48
BND
0.48
-
Asset
VTI
BND
VTI
-
0.37
BND
0.37
-
Asset
VTI
BND
VTI
-
0.16
BND
0.16
-
Asset
VTI
BND
VTI
-
0.15
BND
0.15
-

If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

STOCKS/BONDS 40/60 PORTFOLIO
Drawdown periods
Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 December 1993 - 30 November 2023 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 30 November 2023 (~153 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months Ulcer Index
-19.17% Nov 2007 Feb 2009 16 Nov 2009 9 25 8.87
-18.63% Jan 2022 Sep 2022 9 in progress 14 23 11.60
-8.59% Sep 2000 Sep 2002 25 May 2003 8 33 4.25
-8.09% Feb 2020 Mar 2020 2 May 2020 2 4 3.88
-6.25% Jul 1998 Aug 1998 2 Nov 1998 3 5 2.81
-5.98% Feb 1994 Jun 1994 5 Feb 1995 8 13 3.72
-5.36% Sep 2018 Dec 2018 4 Mar 2019 3 7 2.59
-4.76% Jun 2011 Sep 2011 4 Dec 2011 3 7 1.98
-3.96% May 2010 Jun 2010 2 Sep 2010 3 5 2.10
-3.79% Apr 2000 May 2000 2 Aug 2000 3 5 1.92
-3.41% Jun 2015 Sep 2015 4 Mar 2016 6 10 1.86
-2.87% Feb 2018 Apr 2018 3 Jul 2018 3 6 1.80
-2.59% Sep 2020 Oct 2020 2 Nov 2020 1 3 1.49
-2.57% Feb 1999 Feb 1999 1 Apr 1999 2 3 1.33
-2.56% Sep 2021 Sep 2021 1 Oct 2021 1 2 1.48
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months Ulcer Index
-24.02% Sep 2021 Sep 2022 13 in progress 14 27 16.42
-20.41% Nov 2007 Feb 2009 16 Apr 2010 14 30 9.84
-12.73% Sep 2000 Sep 2002 25 Dec 2003 15 40 6.86
-8.14% Feb 2020 Mar 2020 2 May 2020 2 4 3.87
-7.13% Feb 1994 Jun 1994 5 Apr 1995 10 15 4.76
-6.48% Jul 1998 Aug 1998 2 Nov 1998 3 5 2.98
-5.36% May 2011 Sep 2011 5 Dec 2011 3 8 2.17
-5.02% Sep 2018 Dec 2018 4 Mar 2019 3 7 2.55
-4.59% Mar 2015 Sep 2015 7 Jun 2016 9 16 2.24
-3.96% Apr 2000 May 2000 2 Aug 2000 3 5 2.17
-3.94% May 2010 Jun 2010 2 Sep 2010 3 5 2.13
-3.91% Feb 2018 Apr 2018 3 Aug 2018 4 7 2.51
-3.58% Mar 2004 May 2004 3 Nov 2004 6 9 2.34
-3.45% Jan 2005 Apr 2005 4 Dec 2005 8 12 1.70
-3.31% Jul 1999 Sep 1999 3 Nov 1999 2 5 1.90
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months Ulcer Index
-43.68% Sep 1929 May 1932 33 Sep 1935 40 73 20.75
-21.33% Mar 1937 Mar 1938 13 Jul 1941 40 53 7.66
-19.17% Nov 2007 Feb 2009 16 Nov 2009 9 25 8.87
-18.63% Jan 2022 Sep 2022 9 in progress 14 23 11.60
-17.04% Jan 1973 Sep 1974 21 May 1975 8 29 7.69
-13.08% Sep 1987 Nov 1987 3 Oct 1988 11 14 6.07
-12.84% Dec 1968 Jun 1970 19 Nov 1970 5 24 6.66
-11.62% Oct 1906 Nov 1907 14 Jul 1908 8 22 5.75
-11.05% Feb 1893 Aug 1893 7 Feb 1895 18 25 4.82
-10.88% Oct 1895 Aug 1896 11 Jun 1897 10 21 4.82
-10.74% Apr 1876 Jun 1877 15 Apr 1878 10 25 5.37
-10.22% Oct 1902 Nov 1903 14 Oct 1904 11 25 6.09
-10.16% Aug 1941 Apr 1942 9 Dec 1942 8 17 5.26
-9.48% Dec 1916 Dec 1917 13 Feb 1919 14 27 4.26
-9.26% Jun 1946 Nov 1946 6 Aug 1949 33 39 5.16
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months Ulcer Index
-45.57% Jan 1916 Jun 1920 54 Dec 1924 54 108 25.32
-30.32% Jan 1973 Sep 1974 21 Feb 1983 101 122 17.88
-28.88% Sep 1929 May 1932 33 Apr 1933 11 44 13.34
-28.06% Jun 1946 Feb 1948 21 Jan 1954 71 92 16.95
-24.02% Sep 2021 Sep 2022 13 in progress 14 27 16.42
-21.33% Mar 1937 Mar 1938 13 Mar 1940 24 37 9.11
-20.47% Dec 1968 Jun 1970 19 Jan 1972 19 38 10.03
-20.41% Nov 2007 Feb 2009 16 Apr 2010 14 30 9.84
-19.62% Apr 1940 Apr 1942 25 Dec 1944 32 57 9.08
-18.28% Nov 1905 Oct 1907 24 Nov 1908 13 37 8.52
-16.01% Feb 1899 Dec 1899 11 Feb 1901 14 25 10.17
-15.63% Jul 1901 Feb 1904 32 Feb 1905 12 44 9.12
-13.84% Sep 1987 Nov 1987 3 May 1989 18 21 6.51
-13.60% Jul 1881 Jun 1882 12 Jul 1883 13 25 8.95
-12.94% Jul 1876 May 1877 11 Oct 1877 5 16 8.49

Rolling Returns

( more details)

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

STOCKS/BONDS 40/60 PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 December 1993 - 30 November 2023 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 30 November 2023 (~153 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -16.25 03/2008
02/2009
0.83$ 0.38 1.00$ 8.08 1.08$ 13.83 1.13$ 25.63 03/2009
02/2010
1.25$ 5.92 14.33%
2Y -7.31 03/2007
02/2009
0.85$ 1.76 1.03$ 7.26 1.15$ 12.57 1.26$ 18.91 03/2009
02/2011
1.41$ -3.41 11.57%
3Y -2.41 03/2006
02/2009
0.92$ 2.78 1.08$ 6.92 1.22$ 11.23 1.37$ 17.79 01/1995
12/1997
1.63$ 0.77 2.15%
5Y 0.55 03/2004
02/2009
1.02$ 4.35 1.23$ 6.31 1.35$ 9.51 1.57$ 15.33 01/1995
12/1999
2.04$ 5.34 0.00%
7Y 2.31 03/2002
02/2009
1.17$ 5.25 1.43$ 6.40 1.54$ 7.83 1.69$ 11.54 07/1994
06/2001
2.14$ 5.53 0.00%
10Y 2.89 03/1999
02/2009
1.32$ 5.32 1.67$ 6.55 1.88$ 7.98 2.15$ 9.67 01/1995
12/2004
2.51$ 5.41 0.00%
15Y 5.22 10/2007
09/2022
2.14$ 5.84 2.34$ 6.41 2.53$ 7.04 2.77$ 7.82 12/1994
11/2009
3.09$ 7.14 0.00%
20Y 5.38 04/2000
03/2020
2.85$ 5.94 3.17$ 6.44 3.48$ 7.42 4.18$ 8.13 12/1994
11/2014
4.77$ 5.98 0.00%
30Y 6.83 12/1993
11/2023
7.25$ 6.83 7.25$ 6.83 7.25$ 6.83 7.25$ 6.83 12/1993
11/2023
7.25$ 6.83 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -22.02 11/2021
10/2022
0.77$ -2.50 0.97$ 5.75 1.05$ 10.98 1.10$ 23.87 04/1997
03/1998
1.23$ 2.49 21.20%
2Y -11.56 11/2021
10/2023
0.78$ -0.59 0.98$ 4.89 1.10$ 9.89 1.20$ 16.43 03/2009
02/2011
1.35$ -8.19 15.73%
3Y -5.05 11/2020
10/2023
0.85$ 0.17 1.00$ 4.74 1.14$ 8.65 1.28$ 15.00 04/1995
03/1998
1.52$ -4.70 13.54%
5Y -2.04 03/2004
02/2009
0.90$ 1.66 1.08$ 4.30 1.23$ 7.38 1.42$ 12.66 01/1995
12/1999
1.81$ 1.22 2.99%
7Y -0.24 03/2002
02/2009
0.98$ 2.27 1.17$ 4.19 1.33$ 5.92 1.49$ 8.68 12/1994
11/2001
1.79$ 1.93 0.36%
10Y 0.30 03/1999
02/2009
1.03$ 2.62 1.29$ 4.35 1.53$ 6.00 1.79$ 7.07 01/1995
12/2004
1.98$ 2.52 0.00%
15Y 2.77 10/2007
09/2022
1.50$ 3.44 1.66$ 4.08 1.82$ 4.78 2.01$ 5.32 08/2006
07/2021
2.17$ 4.52 0.00%
20Y 3.03 11/2003
10/2023
1.81$ 3.60 2.02$ 4.15 2.25$ 5.00 2.65$ 5.69 12/1994
11/2014
3.02$ 3.30 0.00%
30Y 4.20 12/1993
11/2023
3.43$ 4.20 3.43$ 4.20 3.43$ 4.20 3.43$ 4.20 12/1993
11/2023
3.43$ 4.20 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -31.23 07/1931
06/1932
0.68$ -1.20 0.98$ 6.97 1.06$ 15.01 1.15$ 54.88 07/1932
06/1933
1.54$ 5.92 18.42%
2Y -22.53 06/1930
05/1932
0.60$ 1.17 1.02$ 6.72 1.13$ 12.77 1.27$ 27.88 07/1984
06/1986
1.63$ -3.41 10.98%
3Y -15.47 07/1929
06/1932
0.60$ 2.52 1.07$ 6.50 1.20$ 11.56 1.38$ 21.82 08/1984
07/1987
1.80$ 0.77 3.94%
5Y -4.38 06/1927
05/1932
0.79$ 3.55 1.19$ 6.48 1.36$ 10.40 1.63$ 20.32 04/1982
03/1987
2.52$ 5.34 2.25%
7Y -0.11 07/1925
06/1932
0.99$ 4.09 1.32$ 6.36 1.53$ 10.15 1.96$ 17.94 04/1980
03/1987
3.17$ 5.53 0.11%
10Y 2.03 09/1929
08/1939
1.22$ 4.42 1.54$ 6.41 1.86$ 9.30 2.43$ 14.86 10/1981
09/1991
3.99$ 5.41 0.00%
15Y 2.53 09/1881
08/1896
1.45$ 4.88 2.04$ 6.22 2.47$ 9.02 3.65$ 13.88 08/1982
07/1997
7.02$ 7.14 0.00%
20Y 3.62 07/1901
06/1921
2.03$ 4.96 2.63$ 6.40 3.45$ 9.03 5.63$ 13.30 04/1980
03/2000
12.14$ 5.98 0.00%
30Y 3.94 06/1902
05/1932
3.18$ 5.26 4.65$ 6.49 6.59$ 9.26 14.25$ 11.12 07/1970
06/2000
23.63$ 6.83 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -24.91 10/1973
09/1974
0.75$ -4.67 0.95$ 5.09 1.05$ 14.82 1.14$ 65.85 07/1932
06/1933
1.65$ 2.49 30.32%
2Y -16.17 12/1916
11/1918
0.70$ -2.07 0.95$ 5.01 1.10$ 11.38 1.24$ 28.28 06/1877
05/1879
1.64$ -8.19 22.41%
3Y -12.93 08/1917
07/1920
0.66$ -0.73 0.97$ 4.77 1.15$ 10.56 1.35$ 18.67 07/1932
06/1935
1.67$ -4.70 17.44%
5Y -10.27 01/1916
12/1920
0.58$ 0.23 1.01$ 4.84 1.26$ 8.98 1.53$ 16.38 08/1982
07/1987
2.13$ 1.22 13.68%
7Y -6.68 06/1913
05/1920
0.61$ 0.81 1.05$ 4.92 1.39$ 8.47 1.76$ 13.61 01/1921
12/1927
2.44$ 1.93 11.13%
10Y -4.00 12/1910
11/1920
0.66$ 1.04 1.10$ 4.76 1.59$ 7.92 2.14$ 12.38 06/1920
05/1930
3.21$ 2.52 10.55%
15Y -2.37 08/1905
07/1920
0.69$ 1.54 1.25$ 4.26 1.86$ 7.00 2.75$ 10.22 01/1921
12/1935
4.30$ 4.52 3.86%
20Y -0.69 07/1901
06/1921
0.87$ 2.27 1.56$ 4.28 2.31$ 6.49 3.51$ 9.08 04/1980
03/2000
5.68$ 3.30 1.19%
30Y 1.16 08/1890
07/1920
1.41$ 2.95 2.39$ 4.15 3.38$ 5.63 5.17$ 7.42 04/1871
03/1901
8.56$ 4.20 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
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Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
1.14
60%
-0.95
40%
-0.27
60%
1.07
80%
0.16
60%
1.00
80%
2.33
100%
-0.07
60%
-2.65
20%
0.64
60%
3.46
80%
-0.15
60%
Best 4.8
2023
1.4
2019
2.7
2023
6.3
2020
2.4
2020
3.7
2019
5.0
2022
2.2
2020
0.4
2019
3.0
2021
6.6
2023
2.0
2020
Worst -3.7
2022
-2.7
2023
-6.1
2020
-6.0
2022
-1.8
2019
-4.2
2022
0.7
2019
-3.2
2022
-6.1
2022
-2.0
2023
-0.6
2021
-2.8
2022
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1871 - Nov 2023
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Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
0.63
60%
-0.09
60%
0.15
50%
0.70
80%
0.55
80%
0.68
80%
1.62
90%
0.16
60%
-1.44
30%
0.36
60%
2.15
90%
0.11
70%
Best 4.8
2023
2.2
2014
3.3
2016
6.3
2020
2.4
2020
3.7
2019
5.0
2022
2.4
2014
0.7
2017
3.1
2015
6.6
2023
2.0
2020
Worst -3.7
2022
-2.7
2023
-6.1
2020
-6.0
2022
-1.8
2019
-4.2
2022
-1.0
2014
-3.2
2022
-6.1
2022
-3.7
2018
-0.6
2021
-2.8
2022
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1871 - Nov 2023
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Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
0.82
67%
0.37
59%
0.43
64%
0.74
67%
0.36
59%
0.51
63%
0.64
63%
0.63
67%
0.15
59%
0.39
61%
0.91
67%
0.84
73%
Best 6.0
1975
6.4
1970
4.7
1971
15.9
1933
8.2
1933
9.4
1938
11.7
1932
13.7
1932
4.4
1891
7.6
1982
7.0
1981
7.1
1873
Worst -4.5
2009
-7.3
1933
-10.4
1938
-6.2
1970
-10.2
1940
-6.5
1930
-4.1
1933
-5.5
1998
-11.4
1931
-8.9
1987
-4.2
1948
-5.7
1931
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1871 - Nov 2023

Monthly Returns

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

STOCKS/BONDS 40/60 PORTFOLIO
Monthly Returns Distribution
Data Source: 1 December 1993 - 30 November 2023 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 30 November 2023 (~153 years)
244 Positive Months (68%) - 116 Negative Months (32%)
1174 Positive Months (64%) - 661 Negative Months (36%)
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(Scroll down to see all data)
Investment Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated.
They have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.

In particular, the series derived from equivalent datasets are:
  • VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market, up to December 2001
  • BND - Vanguard Total Bond Market, up to December 2007

Portfolio efficiency

The following portfolios granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.

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30 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Author Return Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Golden Butterfly Tyler +7.46 7.68 -17.79 40 40 20
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 +6.83 6.98 -19.17 40 60 0

The following portfolios share asset allocation strategy and/or similar asset weights.

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5 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Author Return Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 with Bitcoin +7.06 10.64 -19.39 39 59 2
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 2x Leveraged +5.86 18.53 -36.46 40 60 0
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 ESG +5.73 9.85 -19.76 40 60 0
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 +5.34 9.96 -18.63 40 60 0
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Momentum +3.80 9.72 -21.11 40 60 0

Here's a list containing the Best Classic Portfolios, with the highest returns over 30 Years and Medium Risk categorization.

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30 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Author Return Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Couch Potato Scott Burns +7.83 8.76 -27.04 50 50 0
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Momentum +7.75 6.99 -21.11 40 60 0
All Weather Portfolio Ray Dalio +7.19 7.39 -20.58 30 55 15
Robo Advisor 50 Betterment +7.16 9.32 -30.72 49.9 50.1 0
One-Decision Portfolio Marvin Appel +6.85 8.38 -31.96 50 50 0
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