Invesco DB Commodity Tracking (DBC): Historical Returns

Simulation Settings

Category: Commodities

Period: January 1871 - June 2026 (~156 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 June 2026
Live Update available for July 2026

Initial Amount: 1$

Currency: USD

Inflation: US

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Results

Inflation Adj:

The Invesco DB Commodity Tracking (DBC) ETF covers to the following investment themes:

Asset Class: Commodity
Commodity: Broad Diversified

As of June 2026, in the previous 30 Years, the Invesco DB Commodity Tracking (DBC) ETF obtained a 3.69% compound annual return, with a 19.09% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -74.54% which has been ongoing for 216 months and is still in progress.

Disclaimer: The simulations on this website are provided in good faith but should NOT be taken as investment advice. We are not liable for any errors or actions based on this information. The authors of the website are not affiliated with the ETFs/Assets issuers. Content is for informational, educational, illustrative and entertainment purposes only.

The Invesco DB Commodity Tracking (DBC) ETF is part of the following Lazy Portfolios:

Portfolio Name	Author	DBC Weight▾	Currency
Five Asset	Roger Gibson	20.00%	USD
Rob Arnott Portfolio	Rob Arnott	10.00%	USD
All Weather Portfolio	Ray Dalio	7.50%	USD
All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin	Ray Dalio	6.50%	USD
JP Morgan Balanced Portfolio	JP Morgan	5.00%	USD

Investment Returns as of Jun 30, 2026

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:

no fees or capital gain taxes.
dividend reinvestment, when applicable.
the actual US Inflation rates.

INVESCO DB COMMODITY TRACKING (DBC) ETF

Capital Growth

Inflation Adj:

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Show Live Returns: July 2026	Chg (%)		Return (%)	Return (%) as of Jun 30, 2026
	1 Day	Time ET^(*)	Jul 2026	YTD (6M)	1M	6M	1Y	5Y	10Y	30Y	MAX (~156Y)
Investment Return	-0.79		-0.79	19.23	-9.57	19.23	26.35	9.74	7.47	3.69	2.73
US Inflation Adjusted Return				16.39	-9.57	16.39	21.63	5.22	3.98	1.10	0.59
Returns over 1 year are annualized
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
The live monthly return is calculated by assuming, for each asset, the weight defined by the base asset allocation.
US Inflation is updated to May 2026. Pending updates, the monthly inflation is set at 0% for the subsequent periods. Inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 3.88% , 5Y: 4.30% , 10Y: 3.35% , 30Y: 2.56%

In 2025, this portfolio granted a 3.33% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Invesco DB Commodity Tracking (DBC) ETF: Dividend Yield page.

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Investment Metrics as of Jun 30, 2026

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:

no fees or capital gain taxes.
dividend reinvestment, when applicable.
the actual US Inflation rates.

INVESCO DB COMMODITY TRACKING (DBC) ETF

Advanced Metrics

1 January 1871 - 30 June 2026 (~156 years)

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	Metrics as of Jun 30, 2026
	YTD (6M)	1M	3M	6M	1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	20Y	30Y	MAX (~156Y)
Investment Return (%)	19.23	-9.57	-7.91	19.23	26.35	10.29	9.74	7.47	1.33	3.69	2.73
Growth of 1$	1.19	0.90	0.92	1.19	1.26	1.34	1.59	2.05	1.30	2.96	66.32
Infl. Adjusted Return (%)	16.39	-9.57	-8.93	16.39	21.63	6.88	5.22	3.98	-1.19	1.10	0.59
US Inflation (%)	2.44	0.00	1.12	2.44	3.88	3.19	4.30	3.35	2.55	2.56	2.14
Pending updates, the monthly inflation of Jun 2026 and beyond is set at 0%. Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN Inflation Adjusted: Inflation Adjusted:				Current	1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	20Y	30Y	MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)				-28.43	-14.28	-14.28	-22.97	-37.77	-74.54	-74.54	-74.54
Start to Recovery (# months)				216*	2*	2*	45	35	216*	216*	216*
Start (yyyy mm)					2026 05	2026 05	2022 06	2018 06	2008 07	2008 07	2008 07
Start to Bottom (# months)					2	2	12	23	142	142	142
Bottom (yyyy mm)					2026 06	2026 06	2023 05	2020 04	2020 04	2020 04	2020 04
Bottom to End (# months)					0	0	33	12	74	74	74
End (yyyy mm)					-	-	2026 02	2021 04	-	-	-
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)					same	-8.92	same	-22.97	same	same	-62.15
Start to Recovery (# months)					same	25	same	45	same	same	660
Start (yyyy mm)					2026 05	2023 10	2022 06	2022 06	2008 07	2008 07	1918 01
Start to Bottom (# months)					2	19	12	12	142	142	169
Bottom (yyyy mm)					2026 06	2025 04	2023 05	2023 05	2020 04	2020 04	1932 01
Bottom to End (# months)					0	6	33	33	74	74	491
End (yyyy mm)					-	2025 10	2026 02	2026 02	-	-	1972 12
Longest negative period (# months)					3*	25	45	54	227	281	1214
Start (yyyy mm)					2026 04	2023 08	2022 04	2016 07	2006 07	1996 12	1871 02
End (yyyy mm)					2026 06	2025 08	2025 12	2020 12	2025 05	2020 04	1972 03
Annualized Return (%)					-28.08	-0.26	-0.37	-0.32	-0.07	-0.18	-0.01
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
Adjusting for units held makes the drawdown reflect real performance, just like in the no-cash-flow case.
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)				-53.41	-14.68	-14.68	-27.79	-39.07	-78.38	-78.38	-86.36
Start to Recovery (# months)				216*	2*	2*	46	37	216*	216*	1128
Start (yyyy mm)					2026 05	2026 05	2022 06	2018 06	2008 07	2008 07	1896 10
Start to Bottom (# months)					2	2	35	23	142	142	884
Bottom (yyyy mm)					2026 06	2026 06	2025 04	2020 04	2020 04	2020 04	1970 05
Bottom to End (# months)					0	0	11	14	74	74	244
End (yyyy mm)					-	-	2026 03	2021 06	-	-	1990 09
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)					-1.45	-12.65	same	-27.79	same	same	same
Start to Recovery (# months)					3	28	same	46	same	same	same
Start (yyyy mm)					2025 08	2023 10	2022 06	2022 06	2008 07	2008 07	1896 10
Start to Bottom (# months)					1	19	35	35	142	142	884
Bottom (yyyy mm)					2025 08	2025 04	2025 04	2025 04	2020 04	2020 04	1970 05
Bottom to End (# months)					2	9	11	11	74	74	244
End (yyyy mm)					2025 10	2026 01	2026 03	2026 03	-	-	1990 09
Longest negative period (# months)					3*	29	50*	55	240*	341	1758
Start (yyyy mm)					2026 04	2023 08	2022 05	2016 07	2006 07	1996 12	1873 11
End (yyyy mm)					2026 06	2025 12	2026 06	2021 01	2026 06	2025 04	2020 04
Annualized Return (%)					-31.20	-1.39	-0.93	-1.52	-1.19	-0.01	0.00
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
Adjusting for units held makes the drawdown reflect real performance, just like in the no-cash-flow case.
RISK INDICATORS					1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	20Y	30Y	MAX
Standard Deviation (%)					21.48	15.73	16.56	16.77	18.87	19.09	12.52
Sharpe Ratio					1.05	0.36	0.38	0.31	-0.01	0.08	-0.10
Sortino Ratio					1.56	0.55	0.55	0.43	-0.01	0.11	-0.15
Ulcer Index					4.23	4.68	13.39	13.75	48.88	41.37	33.54
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation					1.23	0.65	0.59	0.45	0.07	0.19	0.22
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown					1.85	0.72	0.42	0.20	0.02	0.05	0.04
Positive Months (%)					75.00	61.11	58.33	57.50	51.66	53.05	81.35
Positive Months					9	22	35	69	124	191	1518
Negative Months					3	14	25	51	116	169	348
LONG TERM RETURNS Inflation Adjusted: Inflation Adjusted:					1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	20Y	30Y	MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized								7.47	9.93	18.17	21.88
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized								7.47	-8.73	-8.73	-8.73
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized								3.98	6.39	14.79	14.79
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized								3.98	-10.03	-10.03	-10.83
TIMEFRAMES Inflation Adjusted: Inflation Adjusted:		1M	3M	6M	1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	20Y	30Y	MAX
··· As of Jun 2026 - Over the previous 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					78.58	31.81	25.40	18.17	5.38	3.69
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					-48.67	-23.43	-15.57	-8.73	0.06	3.69
Positive Periods (%)					57.0	63.6	66.7	52.2	100.0	100.0
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					70.18	28.44	22.29	14.79	2.85	1.10
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					-48.03	-24.08	-16.70	-10.03	-2.34	1.10
Positive Periods (%)					52.4	55.3	58.4	47.7	41.3	100.0
95% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative		8.61	14.33	19.47	34.41	42.28	46.03	46.52	0.00
95% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%)		10.90	18.29	25.07	39.97	47.46	51.07	53.19	0.00
99% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative		12.36	20.84	28.67	46.20	51.91	55.21	56.61	0.00
99% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%)		14.75	24.98	34.52	47.57	54.07	56.77	59.88	0.00
Short term VaRs: analytical \| 1+ year VaRs: historical data
Safe Withdrawal Rate (%)					57.78	18.85	11.57	4.46	3.31	3.84
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%)					---	---	---	---	---	1.08
% based on initial capital, inflation-adj. monthly withdrawals afterwards \| Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
··· All available data (Jan 1871 - Jun 2026)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					106.86	58.15	38.19	21.88	17.34	12.81
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					-48.67	-23.43	-15.57	-8.73	-3.16	-1.80
Positive Periods (%)					55.8	56.1	60.0	56.4	64.2	63.3
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					95.63	46.93	29.70	14.79	10.40	7.53
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					-48.03	-27.11	-23.16	-10.83	-6.00	-4.20
Positive Periods (%)					49.3	46.4	45.8	48.9	52.5	49.2
95% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative		5.65	9.43	12.82	16.16	25.74	30.42	38.17	36.94	30.76
95% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%)		7.15	12.02	16.49	27.17	38.05	44.02	44.82	41.81	37.02
99% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative		8.12	13.69	18.85	33.02	47.18	51.05	48.46	45.88	41.25
99% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%)		9.68	16.40	22.69	39.32	48.87	52.42	51.78	47.05	41.85
Short term VaRs: analytical \| 1+ year VaRs: historical data
Safe Withdrawal Rate (%)					57.78	18.85	9.86	4.20	1.85	1.26
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%)					---	---	---	---	---	---
% based on initial capital, inflation-adj. monthly withdrawals afterwards \| Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com

Terms and Definitions

Annualized Portfolio Return: the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio. When cashflows are involved, it is calculated using the Money-Weighted Rate of Return (MWRR), based on the Modified Dietz formula.
Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration. When cashflows are involved, portfolio values are normalized by the invested capital (i.e. owned quotes) at each time step: this isolates the effect of market performance from capital contributions, avoiding misleading drawdowns caused by large inflows that artificially lift portfolio value and, as a result, the drawdowns match the ones without cash flows.
Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
Value at Risk (VaR): it's an evaluation of a cumulative worst-case loss (in absolute value), associated with a probability (95%-99%) and a time horizon. For short term, it's calculated based on the expected return and standard deviation, assuming a normal distribution of monthly returns. For long term is retrieved by the historical rolling return data.
Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR): it represents the average expected loss if that worst-case threshold (95%-99%) is ever crossed.
Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money in any case (money amount withdrawal).
For instance: Your initial invested capital is 100.000$; withdrawal rate (annualized) is 4%. This means that, in the first month, you will withdraw 100.000 * 4% * 1/12 = 333.33$. The second month, you’ll withdraw 333.33$ plus the inflation monthly rate. You’ll continue adjusting your withdraw monthly for inflation.
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.

Correlations as of Jun 30, 2026

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of two assets move in relation to each other. It is a statistical measure that describes the extent to which the returns of one asset are related to the returns of another asset.

The following table shows the monthly correlations of Invesco DB Commodity Tracking (DBC) ETF vs the main Asset Classes, over different timeframes. Columns are sortable (click on table header to sort).

INVESCO DB COMMODITY TRACKING (DBC) ETF

Monthly correlations as of 30 June 2026

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		Correlation vs DBC
	Asset Class	1 Year	5 Years	10 Years	30 Years
VTI	US Total Stock Market	-0.17	0.09	0.36	0.32
SPY	US Large Cap Blend	-0.13	0.10	0.35	0.31
IJH	US Mid Cap Blend	-0.31	0.12	0.40	0.37
IJR	US Small Cap Blend	-0.26	0.09	0.39	0.34
VNQ	US REITs	-0.14	0.09	0.28	0.24
QQQ	US Technology	-0.13	-0.03	0.21	0.23
PFF	US Preferred Stocks	0.13	0.10	0.26	0.22
EFA	EAFE Stocks	-0.34	0.09	0.38	0.40
VT	World All Countries	-0.21	0.11	0.39	0.36
EEM	Emerging Markets	-0.17	0.13	0.35	0.40
BND	US Total Bond Market	-0.49	-0.13	-0.12	0.01
TLT	US Long Term Treasuries	-0.43	-0.19	-0.30	-0.18
BIL	US Cash	-0.15	-0.21	-0.17	0.01
TIP	US TIPS	-0.15	0.06	0.07	0.26
LQD	US Invest. Grade Bonds	-0.47	-0.07	0.05	0.12
HYG	US High Yield Bonds	-0.23	0.10	0.34	0.32
CWB	US Convertible Bonds	-0.01	0.06	0.35	0.37
BNDX	International Bonds	-0.52	-0.24	-0.17	0.04
EMB	Emerg. Market Bonds	-0.47	-0.01	0.25	0.25
GLD	Gold	0.09	0.10	0.04	0.29

Learn about historical correlations here: see how the main asset classes relate to each other.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

INVESCO DB COMMODITY TRACKING (DBC) ETF

Drawdown periods

Inflation Adj:

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Rolling Return Analysis

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

INVESCO DB COMMODITY TRACKING (DBC) ETF

Annualized Rolling Returns — Over Time & Distribution

The values shown for the rolling periods represent key statistical points: the minimum, maximum, median, and two user-defined percentiles. The lower and upper percentiles (default: 15th and 85th) can be adjusted using the inputs above. They give insight into the distribution of the data, while the median represents the middle value.

Holding Periods and Returns

Holding periods are based on rolling periods: each rolling window represents the return an investor would have achieved by holding the investment for a fixed period (e.g., 10, 20, or 30 years) starting from different dates.

INVESCO DB COMMODITY TRACKING (DBC) ETF

Annualized Rolling Returns

Inflation Adj:

Percentiles: – Changes pending. Click 'Update' to refresh

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Time to Target

What it shows: Months to reach your target capital from each historical entry point, accounting for your initial investment and periodic contributions.

INVESCO DB COMMODITY TRACKING (DBC) ETF

Time to reach your Target Capital

Monthly Returns and Seasonality

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Invesco DB Commodity Tracking (DBC) ETF over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

INVESCO DB COMMODITY TRACKING (DBC) ETF

Monthly Returns Distribution

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Monthly Seasonality Analysis

155 full years are available for analysis


Avg Return (%)
Win Count
Loss Count
Win %
Worst Return (%)
Best Return (%)

For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.

Methodology

Returns, up to December 2006, have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets.

You can find additional information on extended Data Sources here.

Drawdown Analysis			Occurrencies (End of Month)			Cumulative
Phase	Frequency	Range	#Num	Every (Avg)	Frequency	Range	Frequency

Drawdown Analysis			Occurrencies (End of Month)			Cumulative
Phase	Frequency	Range	#Num	Every (Avg)	Frequency	Range	Frequency

Drawdown Analysis			Occurrencies (End of Month)			Cumulative
Phase	Frequency	Range	#Num	Every (Avg)	Frequency	Range	Frequency

Drawdown Analysis			Occurrencies (End of Month)			Cumulative
Phase	Frequency	Range	#Num	Every (Avg)	Frequency	Range	Frequency

Rolling Period	Worst Period			Latest	Negative Periods
Rolling Period	Ann. Return	From To	Ann. Return	Latest	Negative Periods	Ann. Return	Ann. Return	Ann. Return	From To

Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods.

	Intra Year Stats		Monthly Return (%)
Year	Return	Drawdown	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec

Table of contents

Investment Returns as of Jun 30, 2026

Investment Metrics as of Jun 30, 2026

Correlations as of Jun 30, 2026

Drawdowns

Rolling Return Analysis

Holding Periods and Returns

Time to Target

Monthly Returns and Seasonality