Data Source: from January 1871 to November 2023 (~153 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 November 2023
Live Update: Dec 01 2023
Consolidated Returns as of 30 November 2023
Live Update: Dec 01 2023
PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
1.19%
1 Day
Dec 01 2023
1.19%
Current Month
December 2023
The Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio is a Medium Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 5 ETFs.
It's exposed for 30% on the Stock Market and for 15% on Commodities.
In the last 30 Years, the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio obtained a 7.19% compound annual return, with a 7.39% standard deviation.
Table of contents
Asset Allocation and ETFs
The Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio has the following asset allocation:
30% Stocks
55% Fixed Income
15% Commodities
The Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:
| Weight (%) | Ticker | Currency | ETF Name | Investment Themes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30.00 |
VTI
|
USD | Vanguard Total Stock Market | Equity, U.S., Large Cap |
| 40.00 |
TLT
|
USD | iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond | Bond, U.S., Long-Term |
| 15.00 |
IEI
|
USD | iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond | Bond, U.S., Intermediate-Term |
| 7.50 |
DBC
|
USD | Invesco DB Commodity Tracking | Commodity, Broad Diversified |
| 7.50 |
GLD
|
USD | SPDR Gold Trust | Commodity, Gold |
Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.
Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Nov 30, 2023
The Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.
Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:
- no fees or capital gain taxes.
- a rebalancing of the components at every January 1st. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
- the reinvestment of dividends.
RAY DALIO ALL WEATHER PORTFOLIO
Consolidated returns as of 30 November 2023
Live Update: Dec 01 2023
Swipe left to see all data
| Chg (%) | Return (%) | Return (%) as of Nov 30, 2023 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Day | Time ET(*) | Dec 2023 | 1M | 6M | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | 30Y |
MAX
(~153Y) |
|||
| Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio | 1.19 | 1.19 | 7.09 | 0.11 | 1.62 | 4.70 | 4.74 | 7.19 | 6.28 | |||
| US Inflation Adjusted return | 7.09 | -1.05 | -1.67 | 0.60 | 1.88 | 4.55 | 4.08 | |||||
| Components | ||||||||||||
|
VTI
|
USD | Vanguard Total Stock Market | 0.84 | Dec 01 2023 | 0.84 | 9.42 | 10.04 | 12.72 | 11.71 | 11.16 | 9.90 | 9.08 |
|
TLT
|
USD | iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond | 1.88 | Dec 01 2023 | 1.88 | 9.92 | -9.50 | -8.15 | -2.46 | 1.07 | 4.92 | 4.76 |
|
IEI
|
USD | iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond | 0.60 | Dec 01 2023 | 0.60 | 2.70 | -0.34 | 1.33 | 0.67 | 0.89 | 4.10 | 4.47 |
|
DBC
|
USD | Invesco DB Commodity Tracking | -0.46 | Dec 01 2023 | -0.46 | -2.45 | 8.44 | -5.63 | 10.12 | -0.30 | 4.25 | 2.62 |
|
GLD
|
USD | SPDR Gold Trust | 1.73 | Dec 01 2023 | 1.73 | 2.53 | 3.53 | 14.53 | 10.31 | 4.57 | 5.55 | 2.93 |
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1871
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Oct 2023.
Waiting for updates, inflation of Nov 2023 is set to 0%.
Current inflation (annualized) is
1Y: 3.35%
, 5Y: 4.07%
, 10Y: 2.82%
, 30Y: 2.52%
Live update: World Markets and Indexes
In 2022, the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio granted a 1.36% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.
Capital Growth as of Nov 30, 2023
An investment of 1$, since December 1993,
now would be worth 8.02$, with a total return of 702.42% (7.19% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 3.80$, with a net total return of 280.25% (4.55% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 3.80$, with a net total return of 280.25% (4.55% annualized).
An investment of 1$, since January 1871,
now would be worth 11087.28$, with a total return of 1108628.28% (6.28% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 449.49$, with a net total return of 44848.56% (4.08% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 449.49$, with a net total return of 44848.56% (4.08% annualized).
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Portfolio Metrics as of Nov 30, 2023
Metrics of Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio, updated as of 30 November 2023.
Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
- no fees or capital gain taxes.
- a rebalancing of the components at every January 1st. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
- the reinvestment of dividends.
RAY DALIO ALL WEATHER PORTFOLIO
Advanced Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 30 November 2023 (~153 years)
Swipe left to see all data
| Metrics as of Nov 30, 2023 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y |
MAX
(~153Y) |
|
| Investment Return (%) | 7.09 | -0.86 | 0.11 | 1.62 | -2.03 | 4.70 | 4.74 | 6.42 | 7.19 | 6.28 |
| Infl. Adjusted Return (%) details | 7.09 | -1.07 | -1.05 | -1.67 | -7.35 | 0.60 | 1.88 | 3.73 | 4.55 | 4.08 |
| US Inflation (%) | 0.00 | 0.21 | 1.17 | 3.35 | 5.74 | 4.07 | 2.82 | 2.59 | 2.52 | 2.12 |
| Waiting for updates, inflation of Nov 2023 is temporarily set to 0%. Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized. | ||||||||||
|
DRAWDOWN
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
|
1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y | MAX | |||
| Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) | -9.24 | -20.58 | -20.58 | -20.58 | -20.58 | -20.58 | -37.02 | |||
| Start to Recovery (# months) details | 4* | 23* | 23* | 23* | 23* | 23* | 68 | |||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2023 08 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 1929 09 | |||
| Start to Bottom (# months) | 3 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 33 | |||
| Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2023 10 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 1932 05 | |||
| Bottom to End (# months) | 1 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 35 | |||
| End (yyyy mm) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1935 04 | |||
| Longest Drawdown Depth (%) |
same as deepest |
same as deepest |
same as deepest |
same as deepest |
same as deepest |
same as deepest |
same as deepest |
|||
| Start to Recovery (# months) details | ||||||||||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2023 08 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 1929 09 | |||
| Start to Bottom (# months) | 3 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 33 | |||
| Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2023 10 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 1932 05 | |||
| Bottom to End (# months) | 1 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 35 | |||
| End (yyyy mm) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1935 04 | |||
| Longest negative period (# months) details | 11 | 36* | 46 | 46 | 46 | 46 | 84 | |||
| Period Start (yyyy mm) | 2022 12 | 2020 12 | 2020 01 | 2020 01 | 2020 01 | 2020 01 | 1925 07 | |||
| Period End (yyyy mm) | 2023 10 | 2023 11 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 1932 06 | |||
| Annualized Return (%) | -5.56 | -2.03 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.03 | |||
| Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress | ||||||||||
| Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) | -10.39 | -27.79 | -27.79 | -27.79 | -27.79 | -27.79 | -47.73 | |||
| Start to Recovery (# months) details | 10* | 23* | 23* | 23* | 23* | 23* | 124 | |||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2023 02 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 1916 03 | |||
| Start to Bottom (# months) | 9 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 52 | |||
| Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 1920 06 | |||
| Bottom to End (# months) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 72 | |||
| End (yyyy mm) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1926 06 | |||
| Longest Drawdown Depth (%) |
same as deepest |
same as deepest |
same as deepest |
same as deepest |
same as deepest |
-6.58 |
same as deepest |
|||
| Start to Recovery (# months) details | 32 | |||||||||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2023 02 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2000 09 | 1916 03 | |||
| Start to Bottom (# months) | 9 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 13 | 52 | |||
| Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 2001 09 | 1920 06 | |||
| Bottom to End (# months) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 72 | |||
| End (yyyy mm) | - | - | - | - | - | 2003 04 | 1926 06 | |||
| Longest negative period (# months) details | 12* | 36* | 59 | 105 | 105 | 105 | 341 | |||
| Period Start (yyyy mm) | 2022 12 | 2020 12 | 2018 12 | 2015 02 | 2015 02 | 2015 02 | 1892 04 | |||
| Period End (yyyy mm) | 2023 11 | 2023 11 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 1920 08 | |||
| Annualized Return (%) | -1.67 | -7.35 | -0.78 | -0.43 | -0.43 | -0.43 | -0.01 | |||
| Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress | ||||||||||
|
RISK INDICATORS
|
1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y | MAX | |||
| Standard Deviation (%) | 12.89 | 11.33 | 10.06 | 8.16 | 7.72 | 7.39 | 6.55 | |||
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.25 | -0.35 | 0.30 | 0.45 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.35 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | -0.39 | -0.50 | 0.42 | 0.62 | 0.89 | 0.90 | 0.50 | |||
| Ulcer Index | 3.62 | 11.36 | 8.87 | 6.63 | 5.03 | 4.32 | 4.55 | |||
| Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation | 0.13 | -0.18 | 0.47 | 0.58 | 0.83 | 0.97 | 0.96 | |||
| Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown | 0.18 | -0.10 | 0.23 | 0.23 | 0.31 | 0.35 | 0.17 | |||
| % Positive Months details | 50% | 47% | 58% | 61% | 65% | 66% | 63% | |||
| Positive Months | 6 | 17 | 35 | 74 | 157 | 238 | 1170 | |||
| Negative Months | 6 | 19 | 25 | 46 | 83 | 122 | 665 | |||
|
LONG TERM RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
|
1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y | MAX | |||
| Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized | 4.74 | 8.57 | 10.28 | 15.23 | ||||||
| Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized | 3.99 | 3.99 | 1.87 | |||||||
| Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized | 1.88 | 6.53 | 7.67 | 10.91 | ||||||
| Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized | 1.17 | 1.17 | -4.65 | |||||||
|
ROLLING PERIOD RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
|
1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y | MAX | |||
| Over the latest 30Y | ||||||||||
| Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | 27.44 | 16.35 | 13.08 | 10.28 | 9.32 | 7.19 | ||||
| Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | -19.45 | -2.92 | 3.14 | 3.99 | 6.10 | |||||
| % Positive Periods | 86% | 98% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||||
| Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | 24.28 | 13.44 | 10.46 | 7.67 | 6.93 | 4.55 | ||||
| Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | -25.24 | -8.18 | -0.87 | 1.17 | 3.44 | |||||
| % Positive Periods | 81% | 94% | 98% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||||
| Over all the available data source (Jan 1871 - Nov 2023) | ||||||||||
| Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | 47.75 | 24.13 | 20.99 | 15.23 | 12.52 | 11.60 | ||||
| Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | -24.95 | -12.66 | -3.71 | 1.87 | 2.82 | 3.26 | ||||
| % Positive Periods | 82% | 96% | 98% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||||
| Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | 58.22 | 20.50 | 17.14 | 10.91 | 8.56 | 7.90 | ||||
| Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | -25.24 | -14.36 | -11.08 | -4.65 | -1.46 | 0.32 | ||||
| % Positive Periods | 69% | 83% | 87% | 91% | 97% | 100% | ||||
|
WITHDRAWAL RATES (WR)
|
1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y | MAX | |||
| Safe WR (%) | 31.05 | 22.88 | 12.12 | 7.96 | 6.95 | 5.75 | ||||
| Perpetual WR (%) | 0.00 | 0.60 | 1.84 | 3.60 | 4.35 | 3.92 | ||||
- Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio
- Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
- Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed
- Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean
- Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return
- Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation)
- Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio
- Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame
- Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
- Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the original portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money (dollar amount withdrawal).
- Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year, while retaining the inflation adjusted portfolio balance (percentage withdrawal).
Talking about withdrawal rates, how would you manage your early retirement with the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio? Read more here
Analyze your Portfolio: Backtest Now!
Explore historical data since 1871 and fine-tune your investment strategy for better results.
Explore historical data since 1871 and fine-tune your investment strategy for better results.
Portfolio Components Correlation
Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.
Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1. If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS
Monthly correlations as of 30 November 2023
Swipe left to see all data
| Asset |
VTI
|
TLT
|
IEI
|
DBC
|
GLD
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
VTI
|
-
|
0.83
|
0.62
|
0.30
|
0.27
|
|
TLT
|
0.83
|
-
|
0.87
|
0.02
|
0.51
|
|
IEI
|
0.62
|
0.87
|
-
|
0.13
|
0.72
|
|
DBC
|
0.30
|
0.02
|
0.13
|
-
|
0.12
|
|
GLD
|
0.27
|
0.51
|
0.72
|
0.12
|
-
|
| Asset |
VTI
|
TLT
|
IEI
|
DBC
|
GLD
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
VTI
|
-
|
0.13
|
0.14
|
0.51
|
0.20
|
|
TLT
|
0.13
|
-
|
0.85
|
-0.34
|
0.42
|
|
IEI
|
0.14
|
0.85
|
-
|
-0.29
|
0.46
|
|
DBC
|
0.51
|
-0.34
|
-0.29
|
-
|
0.03
|
|
GLD
|
0.20
|
0.42
|
0.46
|
0.03
|
-
|
| Asset |
VTI
|
TLT
|
IEI
|
DBC
|
GLD
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
VTI
|
-
|
0.06
|
0.04
|
0.44
|
0.09
|
|
TLT
|
0.06
|
-
|
0.85
|
-0.35
|
0.43
|
|
IEI
|
0.04
|
0.85
|
-
|
-0.27
|
0.46
|
|
DBC
|
0.44
|
-0.35
|
-0.27
|
-
|
0.11
|
|
GLD
|
0.09
|
0.43
|
0.46
|
0.11
|
-
|
| Asset |
VTI
|
TLT
|
IEI
|
DBC
|
GLD
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
VTI
|
-
|
-0.12
|
-0.12
|
0.34
|
0.06
|
|
TLT
|
-0.12
|
-
|
0.79
|
-0.17
|
0.20
|
|
IEI
|
-0.12
|
0.79
|
-
|
-0.04
|
0.23
|
|
DBC
|
0.34
|
-0.17
|
-0.04
|
-
|
0.29
|
|
GLD
|
0.06
|
0.20
|
0.23
|
0.29
|
-
|
| Asset |
VTI
|
TLT
|
IEI
|
DBC
|
GLD
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
VTI
|
-
|
0.08
|
0.09
|
0.09
|
0.02
|
|
TLT
|
0.08
|
-
|
0.82
|
-0.11
|
0.07
|
|
IEI
|
0.09
|
0.82
|
-
|
-0.04
|
0.06
|
|
DBC
|
0.09
|
-0.11
|
-0.04
|
-
|
0.30
|
|
GLD
|
0.02
|
0.07
|
0.06
|
0.30
|
-
|
If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.
Drawdowns
A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.
RAY DALIO ALL WEATHER PORTFOLIO
Drawdown periods
Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 December 1993 - 30 November 2023 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 30 November 2023 (~153 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period |
Recovery period |
Total |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months | Ulcer Index |
| -20.58% | Jan 2022 | Sep 2022 | 9 | in progress | 14 | 23 | 14.06 |
| -11.57% | Jan 2009 | Feb 2009 | 2 | Sep 2009 | 7 | 9 | 6.27 |
| -11.38% | Jul 2008 | Oct 2008 | 4 | Dec 2008 | 2 | 6 | 5.15 |
| -6.83% | Feb 1994 | Nov 1994 | 10 | Mar 1995 | 4 | 14 | 4.86 |
| -6.66% | Feb 2015 | Dec 2015 | 11 | Jun 2016 | 6 | 17 | 4.06 |
| -6.42% | Aug 2016 | Nov 2016 | 4 | Aug 2017 | 9 | 13 | 3.10 |
| -5.29% | May 2013 | Jun 2013 | 2 | Jan 2014 | 7 | 9 | 3.01 |
| -4.83% | Jul 1998 | Aug 1998 | 2 | Oct 1998 | 2 | 4 | 2.27 |
| -4.76% | Apr 2004 | Apr 2004 | 1 | Sep 2004 | 5 | 6 | 3.09 |
| -4.74% | Jun 2003 | Jul 2003 | 2 | Sep 2003 | 2 | 4 | 2.46 |
| -4.71% | Sep 2018 | Oct 2018 | 2 | Mar 2019 | 5 | 7 | 2.74 |
| -4.61% | Feb 2001 | Mar 2001 | 2 | Aug 2002 | 17 | 19 | 2.73 |
| -3.79% | Feb 1999 | Feb 1999 | 1 | Apr 1999 | 2 | 3 | 2.07 |
| -3.74% | Jan 2021 | Mar 2021 | 3 | May 2021 | 2 | 5 | 1.99 |
| -3.68% | Aug 2020 | Oct 2020 | 3 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 4 | 1.76 |
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period |
Recovery period |
Total |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months | Ulcer Index |
| -27.79% | Jan 2022 | Oct 2023 | 22 | in progress | 1 | 23 | 19.65 |
| -13.03% | Mar 2008 | Oct 2008 | 8 | Dec 2008 | 2 | 10 | 5.24 |
| -12.39% | Jan 2009 | Feb 2009 | 2 | Nov 2009 | 9 | 11 | 6.78 |
| -9.01% | Feb 1994 | Nov 1994 | 10 | May 1995 | 6 | 16 | 5.99 |
| -8.21% | Feb 2015 | Sep 2015 | 8 | Jun 2016 | 9 | 17 | 5.41 |
| -6.70% | Aug 2016 | Nov 2016 | 4 | Nov 2017 | 12 | 16 | 3.42 |
| -6.58% | Sep 2000 | Sep 2001 | 13 | Apr 2003 | 19 | 32 | 3.92 |
| -5.76% | Feb 2018 | Oct 2018 | 9 | Mar 2019 | 5 | 14 | 3.00 |
| -5.69% | May 2013 | Jun 2013 | 2 | Feb 2014 | 8 | 10 | 3.20 |
| -5.34% | Jan 2021 | Mar 2021 | 3 | Jul 2021 | 4 | 7 | 2.76 |
| -5.06% | Apr 2004 | Apr 2004 | 1 | Oct 2004 | 6 | 7 | 3.55 |
| -5.06% | Jul 1998 | Aug 1998 | 2 | Oct 1998 | 2 | 4 | 2.39 |
| -4.95% | Jun 2003 | Jul 2003 | 2 | Oct 2003 | 3 | 5 | 2.47 |
| -4.39% | Dec 1996 | Mar 1997 | 4 | May 1997 | 2 | 6 | 2.04 |
| -4.35% | Sep 2005 | Oct 2005 | 2 | Dec 2005 | 2 | 4 | 2.21 |
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period |
Recovery period |
Total |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months | Ulcer Index |
| -37.02% | Sep 1929 | May 1932 | 33 | Apr 1935 | 35 | 68 | 17.03 |
| -20.58% | Jan 2022 | Sep 2022 | 9 | in progress | 14 | 23 | 14.06 |
| -17.43% | Mar 1937 | Mar 1938 | 13 | Mar 1940 | 24 | 37 | 7.09 |
| -12.98% | Dec 1968 | May 1970 | 18 | Dec 1970 | 7 | 25 | 6.73 |
| -12.31% | Dec 1980 | Sep 1981 | 10 | Aug 1982 | 11 | 21 | 5.41 |
| -11.57% | Jan 2009 | Feb 2009 | 2 | Sep 2009 | 7 | 9 | 6.27 |
| -11.38% | Jul 2008 | Oct 2008 | 4 | Dec 2008 | 2 | 6 | 5.15 |
| -11.04% | Mar 1974 | Sep 1974 | 7 | Jan 1975 | 4 | 11 | 6.00 |
| -10.89% | Feb 1980 | Mar 1980 | 2 | May 1980 | 2 | 4 | 5.40 |
| -9.55% | Oct 1906 | Nov 1907 | 14 | Aug 1908 | 9 | 23 | 4.83 |
| -9.31% | Dec 1892 | Aug 1893 | 9 | Feb 1895 | 18 | 27 | 4.13 |
| -8.82% | Oct 1895 | Aug 1896 | 11 | Mar 1897 | 7 | 18 | 4.15 |
| -8.78% | Sep 1987 | Nov 1987 | 3 | Sep 1988 | 10 | 13 | 3.96 |
| -8.57% | Nov 1919 | Jun 1921 | 20 | Dec 1921 | 6 | 26 | 6.09 |
| -8.25% | Dec 1916 | Dec 1917 | 13 | Apr 1919 | 16 | 29 | 3.86 |
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period |
Recovery period |
Total |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months | Ulcer Index |
| -47.73% | Mar 1916 | Jun 1920 | 52 | Jun 1926 | 72 | 124 | 25.75 |
| -27.79% | Jan 2022 | Oct 2023 | 22 | in progress | 1 | 23 | 19.65 |
| -26.57% | Feb 1946 | Feb 1948 | 25 | Nov 1954 | 81 | 106 | 17.05 |
| -20.81% | Jul 1980 | Sep 1981 | 15 | Oct 1982 | 13 | 28 | 11.69 |
| -20.65% | Sep 1968 | May 1970 | 21 | Feb 1972 | 21 | 42 | 10.40 |
| -20.47% | Sep 1929 | May 1932 | 33 | Jan 1933 | 8 | 41 | 9.54 |
| -17.79% | Aug 1973 | Sep 1974 | 14 | Dec 1976 | 27 | 41 | 7.52 |
| -17.43% | Mar 1937 | Mar 1938 | 13 | Dec 1939 | 21 | 34 | 7.87 |
| -16.97% | Nov 1905 | Oct 1907 | 24 | Jan 1909 | 15 | 39 | 7.98 |
| -16.16% | Dec 1940 | Apr 1942 | 17 | Jan 1945 | 33 | 50 | 8.18 |
| -14.70% | Feb 1899 | Dec 1899 | 11 | Mar 1901 | 15 | 26 | 9.33 |
| -14.61% | Jul 1901 | Feb 1904 | 32 | Mar 1905 | 13 | 45 | 8.61 |
| -14.47% | Jan 1977 | Mar 1980 | 39 | Jun 1980 | 3 | 42 | 5.05 |
| -13.21% | Jul 1911 | Aug 1914 | 38 | Dec 1915 | 16 | 54 | 7.66 |
| -13.03% | Mar 2008 | Oct 2008 | 8 | Dec 2008 | 2 | 10 | 5.24 |
Rolling Returns
( more details)
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
RAY DALIO ALL WEATHER PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 December 1993 - 30 November 2023 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 30 November 2023 (~153 years)
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| Rolling Period |
Worst Period |
15th Percentile |
50th Percentile |
85th Percentile |
Best Period |
Latest | Negative Periods |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ann. Return |
From To |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
From To |
Growth of 1$ |
|||
| 1Y | -19.45 |
11/2021 10/2022 |
0.80$ | 0.68 | 1.00$ | 8.59 | 1.08$ | 14.21 | 1.14$ | 27.44 |
01/1995 12/1995 |
1.27$ | 1.62 | 13.75% |
| 2Y | -10.33 |
11/2021 10/2023 |
0.80$ | 3.03 | 1.06$ | 8.04 | 1.16$ | 12.78 | 1.27$ | 19.15 |
12/1994 11/1996 |
1.41$ | -7.01 | 5.64% |
| 3Y | -2.92 |
11/2020 10/2023 |
0.91$ | 4.54 | 1.14$ | 7.87 | 1.25$ | 11.17 | 1.37$ | 16.35 |
12/1994 11/1997 |
1.57$ | -2.03 | 1.85% |
| 5Y | 3.14 |
10/2018 09/2023 |
1.16$ | 5.47 | 1.30$ | 7.70 | 1.44$ | 9.87 | 1.60$ | 13.08 |
01/1995 12/1999 |
1.84$ | 4.70 | 0.00% |
| 7Y | 3.15 |
10/2016 09/2023 |
1.24$ | 6.37 | 1.54$ | 7.76 | 1.68$ | 8.67 | 1.78$ | 10.56 |
12/1994 11/2001 |
2.01$ | 4.65 | 0.00% |
| 10Y | 3.99 |
11/2013 10/2023 |
1.47$ | 6.68 | 1.90$ | 7.86 | 2.13$ | 9.01 | 2.36$ | 10.28 |
01/1995 12/2004 |
2.66$ | 4.74 | 0.00% |
| 15Y | 5.58 |
11/2007 10/2022 |
2.25$ | 7.03 | 2.76$ | 7.80 | 3.08$ | 8.44 | 3.36$ | 9.23 |
12/1994 11/2009 |
3.76$ | 6.30 | 0.00% |
| 20Y | 6.10 |
11/2003 10/2023 |
3.27$ | 7.04 | 3.89$ | 7.63 | 4.35$ | 8.38 | 4.99$ | 9.32 |
02/1995 01/2015 |
5.94$ | 6.42 | 0.00% |
| 30Y | 7.19 |
12/1993 11/2023 |
8.02$ | 7.19 | 8.02$ | 7.19 | 8.02$ | 7.19 | 8.02$ | 7.19 |
12/1993 11/2023 |
8.02$ | 7.19 | 0.00% |
| Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods | ||||||||||||||
Swipe left to see all data
| Rolling Period |
Worst Period |
15th Percentile |
50th Percentile |
85th Percentile |
Best Period |
Latest | Negative Periods |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ann. Return |
From To |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
From To |
Growth of 1$ |
|||
| 1Y | -25.24 |
11/2021 10/2022 |
0.74$ | -1.58 | 0.98$ | 5.59 | 1.05$ | 12.25 | 1.12$ | 24.28 |
01/1995 12/1995 |
1.24$ | -1.67 | 18.91% |
| 2Y | -14.98 |
11/2021 10/2023 |
0.72$ | 0.94 | 1.01$ | 5.53 | 1.11$ | 10.08 | 1.21$ | 15.76 |
12/1994 11/1996 |
1.34$ | -11.62 | 9.50% |
| 3Y | -8.18 |
11/2020 10/2023 |
0.77$ | 2.51 | 1.07$ | 5.57 | 1.17$ | 8.77 | 1.28$ | 13.44 |
12/1994 11/1997 |
1.45$ | -7.35 | 5.23% |
| 5Y | -0.87 |
10/2018 09/2023 |
0.95$ | 3.54 | 1.18$ | 5.28 | 1.29$ | 7.35 | 1.42$ | 10.46 |
01/1995 12/1999 |
1.64$ | 0.60 | 1.99% |
| 7Y | -0.36 |
10/2016 09/2023 |
0.97$ | 4.26 | 1.33$ | 5.40 | 1.44$ | 6.43 | 1.54$ | 7.91 |
12/1994 11/2001 |
1.70$ | 1.08 | 0.72% |
| 10Y | 1.17 |
11/2013 10/2023 |
1.12$ | 4.35 | 1.53$ | 5.61 | 1.72$ | 6.45 | 1.86$ | 7.67 |
01/1995 12/2004 |
2.09$ | 1.88 | 0.00% |
| 15Y | 3.11 |
11/2007 10/2022 |
1.58$ | 4.81 | 2.02$ | 5.51 | 2.23$ | 5.92 | 2.37$ | 6.59 |
12/1994 11/2009 |
2.60$ | 3.71 | 0.00% |
| 20Y | 3.44 |
11/2003 10/2023 |
1.96$ | 4.65 | 2.48$ | 5.38 | 2.85$ | 5.98 | 3.19$ | 6.93 |
02/1995 01/2015 |
3.82$ | 3.73 | 0.00% |
| 30Y | 4.55 |
12/1993 11/2023 |
3.80$ | 4.55 | 3.80$ | 4.55 | 3.80$ | 4.55 | 3.80$ | 4.55 |
12/1993 11/2023 |
3.80$ | 4.55 | 0.00% |
| Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods | ||||||||||||||
Swipe left to see all data
| Rolling Period |
Worst Period |
15th Percentile |
50th Percentile |
85th Percentile |
Best Period |
Latest | Negative Periods |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ann. Return |
From To |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
From To |
Growth of 1$ |
|||
| 1Y | -24.95 |
07/1931 06/1932 |
0.75$ | -0.74 | 0.99$ | 6.24 | 1.06$ | 13.41 | 1.13$ | 47.75 |
07/1932 06/1933 |
1.47$ | 1.62 | 17.76% |
| 2Y | -18.52 |
06/1930 05/1932 |
0.66$ | 1.23 | 1.02$ | 6.26 | 1.12$ | 11.84 | 1.25$ | 32.09 |
07/1984 06/1986 |
1.74$ | -7.01 | 9.11% |
| 3Y | -12.66 |
07/1929 06/1932 |
0.66$ | 2.56 | 1.07$ | 5.87 | 1.18$ | 10.90 | 1.36$ | 24.13 |
08/1984 07/1987 |
1.91$ | -2.03 | 3.44% |
| 5Y | -3.71 |
06/1927 05/1932 |
0.82$ | 3.14 | 1.16$ | 5.93 | 1.33$ | 9.98 | 1.60$ | 20.99 |
04/1982 03/1987 |
2.59$ | 4.70 | 1.35% |
| 7Y | -0.03 |
07/1925 06/1932 |
0.99$ | 3.52 | 1.27$ | 5.88 | 1.49$ | 9.62 | 1.90$ | 17.40 |
08/1982 07/1989 |
3.07$ | 4.65 | 0.06% |
| 10Y | 1.87 |
09/1886 08/1896 |
1.20$ | 3.87 | 1.46$ | 5.73 | 1.74$ | 9.39 | 2.45$ | 15.23 |
10/1981 09/1991 |
4.12$ | 4.74 | 0.00% |
| 15Y | 2.25 |
09/1881 08/1896 |
1.39$ | 4.10 | 1.82$ | 5.60 | 2.26$ | 9.30 | 3.79$ | 13.74 |
08/1982 07/1997 |
6.89$ | 6.30 | 0.00% |
| 20Y | 2.82 |
07/1901 06/1921 |
1.74$ | 4.21 | 2.28$ | 5.58 | 2.96$ | 9.90 | 6.61$ | 12.52 |
04/1980 03/2000 |
10.57$ | 6.42 | 0.00% |
| 30Y | 3.26 |
06/1902 05/1932 |
2.61$ | 4.49 | 3.72$ | 5.51 | 5.00$ | 9.94 | 17.17$ | 11.60 |
07/1970 06/2000 |
26.92$ | 7.19 | 0.00% |
| Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods | ||||||||||||||
Swipe left to see all data
| Rolling Period |
Worst Period |
15th Percentile |
50th Percentile |
85th Percentile |
Best Period |
Latest | Negative Periods |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ann. Return |
From To |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
From To |
Growth of 1$ |
|||
| 1Y | -25.24 |
11/2021 10/2022 |
0.74$ | -4.26 | 0.95$ | 4.41 | 1.04$ | 13.17 | 1.13$ | 58.22 |
07/1932 06/1933 |
1.58$ | -1.67 | 30.10% |
| 2Y | -16.41 |
12/1916 11/1918 |
0.69$ | -1.71 | 0.96$ | 4.61 | 1.09$ | 10.14 | 1.21$ | 28.54 |
07/1984 06/1986 |
1.65$ | -11.62 | 22.30% |
| 3Y | -14.36 |
02/1917 01/1920 |
0.62$ | -0.26 | 0.99$ | 4.20 | 1.13$ | 9.55 | 1.31$ | 20.50 |
08/1984 07/1987 |
1.74$ | -7.35 | 16.22% |
| 5Y | -11.08 |
07/1915 06/1920 |
0.55$ | 0.44 | 1.02$ | 4.26 | 1.23$ | 8.31 | 1.49$ | 17.14 |
07/1982 06/1987 |
2.20$ | 0.60 | 12.44% |
| 7Y | -7.47 |
06/1913 05/1920 |
0.58$ | 0.59 | 1.04$ | 4.53 | 1.36$ | 7.79 | 1.69$ | 13.38 |
08/1982 07/1989 |
2.40$ | 1.08 | 10.45% |
| 10Y | -4.65 |
12/1910 11/1920 |
0.62$ | 0.96 | 1.09$ | 4.35 | 1.53$ | 7.58 | 2.07$ | 10.91 |
08/1982 07/1992 |
2.81$ | 1.88 | 8.51% |
| 15Y | -3.18 |
08/1905 07/1920 |
0.61$ | 1.26 | 1.20$ | 4.02 | 1.80$ | 6.74 | 2.66$ | 10.02 |
08/1982 07/1997 |
4.19$ | 3.71 | 4.41% |
| 20Y | -1.46 |
07/1901 06/1921 |
0.74$ | 1.74 | 1.41$ | 3.65 | 2.05$ | 6.45 | 3.48$ | 8.56 |
10/1981 09/2001 |
5.16$ | 3.73 | 2.88% |
| 30Y | 0.32 |
08/1890 07/1920 |
1.09$ | 2.01 | 1.81$ | 3.57 | 2.86$ | 5.89 | 5.57$ | 7.90 |
08/1982 07/2012 |
9.78$ | 4.55 | 0.00% |
| Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods | ||||||||||||||
If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.
Seasonality
In which months is it better to invest in Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio?
Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
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| Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Average Gain Frequency |
1.56
60% |
-0.89
40% |
0.60
40% |
0.52
80% |
0.08
60% |
1.00
80% |
2.35
100% |
-0.16
40% |
-3.32
0% |
-0.02
60% |
3.35
80% |
0.04
60% |
| Best |
5.9 2023 |
0.7 2019 |
3.8 2023 |
4.1 2020 |
1.2 2020 |
3.5 2019 |
4.7 2020 |
4.2 2019 |
-0.8 2019 |
3.7 2021 |
7.1 2023 |
1.8 2020 |
| Worst |
-3.1 2022 |
-3.9 2023 |
-1.6 2020 |
-6.1 2022 |
-1.8 2023 |
-3.9 2022 |
0.4 2019 |
-3.6 2022 |
-7.1 2022 |
-2.5 2023 |
-0.4 2021 |
-2.8 2022 |
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1871 - Nov 2023
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| Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Average Gain Frequency |
1.60
80% |
-0.19
50% |
0.52
50% |
0.43
70% |
0.44
70% |
0.87
80% |
1.42
90% |
0.33
50% |
-2.09
0% |
-0.19
60% |
1.63
70% |
0.21
70% |
| Best |
5.9 2023 |
2.5 2014 |
3.8 2023 |
4.1 2020 |
1.8 2018 |
4.2 2016 |
4.7 2020 |
4.2 2019 |
-0.2 2016 |
3.7 2021 |
7.1 2023 |
1.8 2020 |
| Worst |
-3.1 2022 |
-3.9 2023 |
-1.6 2020 |
-6.1 2022 |
-1.8 2023 |
-3.9 2022 |
-1.0 2014 |
-3.6 2022 |
-7.1 2022 |
-3.8 2018 |
-2.9 2016 |
-2.8 2022 |
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1871 - Nov 2023
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| Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Average Gain Frequency |
0.73
65% |
0.35
62% |
0.39
64% |
0.60
64% |
0.39
58% |
0.51
63% |
0.53
63% |
0.65
68% |
0.21
60% |
0.31
59% |
0.86
67% |
0.78
72% |
| Best |
7.2 1933 |
7.1 1986 |
6.8 1986 |
11.1 1933 |
6.0 1933 |
7.0 1938 |
8.7 1932 |
10.3 1932 |
5.0 1998 |
8.0 1974 |
7.2 1981 |
7.8 2008 |
| Worst |
-7.8 2009 |
-5.3 1933 |
-7.9 1938 |
-6.1 2022 |
-7.6 1940 |
-4.9 1930 |
-3.9 2003 |
-3.7 1981 |
-9.0 1931 |
-8.3 2008 |
-3.1 1948 |
-4.8 1931 |
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1871 - Nov 2023
Monthly Returns
This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.
RAY DALIO ALL WEATHER PORTFOLIO
Monthly Returns Distribution
Data Source: 1 December 1993 - 30 November 2023 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 30 November 2023 (~153 years)
238 Positive Months (66%) - 122 Negative Months (34%)
1170 Positive Months (64%) - 665 Negative Months (36%)
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(Scroll down to see all data)
Investment Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated.
They have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
In particular, the series derived from equivalent datasets are:
They have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
In particular, the series derived from equivalent datasets are:
- VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market, up to December 2001
- TLT - iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond, up to December 2002
- IEI - iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond, up to December 2007
- DBC - Invesco DB Commodity Tracking, up to December 2006
- GLD - SPDR Gold Trust, up to December 2004
Portfolio efficiency
The following portfolios granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.
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30 Years Stats (%) |
% Allocation |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | Return▾ | Dev.Std | Drawdown | Stocks | Bonds | Comm | ||
| Golden Butterfly | +7.46 | 7.68 | -17.79 | 40 | 40 | 20 | ||
| All Weather Portfolio | +7.19 | 7.39 | -20.58 | 30 | 55 | 15 | ||
The following portfolios share asset allocation strategy and/or similar asset weights.
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5 Years Stats (%) |
% Allocation |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | Return▾ | Dev.Std | Drawdown | Stocks | Bonds | Comm | ||
| Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin | +7.42 | 9.21 | -16.88 | 25 | 50 | 25 | ||
| Simplified Permanent Portfolio 2x Leveraged | +6.91 | 16.89 | -31.96 | 25 | 50 | 25 | ||
| All Weather Portfolio 2x Leveraged | +6.32 | 21.42 | -37.02 | 37.5 | 55 | 7.5 | ||
| All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin | +6.28 | 10.75 | -21.81 | 30 | 55 | 15 | ||
| Permanent Portfolio | +5.76 | 8.53 | -15.92 | 25 | 50 | 25 | ||
| Simplified Permanent Portfolio | +5.73 | 8.63 | -16.43 | 25 | 50 | 25 | ||
| All Weather Portfolio | +4.70 | 10.06 | -20.58 | 30 | 55 | 15 | ||
Here's a list containing the Best Classic Portfolios, with the highest returns over 30 Years and Medium Risk categorization.
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30 Years Stats (%) |
% Allocation |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | Return▾ | Dev.Std | Drawdown | Stocks | Bonds | Comm | ||
| Couch Potato | +7.83 | 8.76 | -27.04 | 50 | 50 | 0 | ||
| Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Momentum | +7.75 | 6.99 | -21.11 | 40 | 60 | 0 | ||
| All Weather Portfolio | +7.19 | 7.39 | -20.58 | 30 | 55 | 15 | ||
| Robo Advisor 50 | +7.16 | 9.32 | -30.72 | 49.9 | 50.1 | 0 | ||
| One-Decision Portfolio | +6.85 | 8.38 | -31.96 | 50 | 50 | 0 | ||
Analyze your Portfolio: Backtest Now!
Explore historical data since 1871 and fine-tune your investment strategy for better results.
Explore historical data since 1871 and fine-tune your investment strategy for better results.
