Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin: ETF allocation and returns

Data Source: from January 2009 to May 2023 (~14 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 May 2023
Live Update: Jun 02 2023, 09:57PM Eastern Time
PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
0.02%
1 Day
Jun 02 2023, 09:57PM Eastern Time
0.69%
Current Month
June 2023

The Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin is a Medium Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 6 ETFs.

It's exposed for 30% on the Stock Market and for 15% on Commodities.

In the last 10 Years, the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin obtained a 14.70% compound annual return, with a 39.90% standard deviation.

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin has the following asset allocation:

30% Stocks
55% Fixed Income
15% Commodities

The Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight (%) Ticker ETF Name Investment Themes
30.00
VTI
Vanguard Total Stock Market Equity, U.S., Large Cap
40.00
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Bond, U.S., Long-Term
15.00
IEI
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond Bond, U.S., Intermediate-Term
6.50
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust Commodity, Gold
6.50
GSG
iShares S&P GSCI Commodity Indexed Trust Commodity, Broad Diversified
2.00
^BTC
Bitcoin Commodities

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of May 31, 2023

The Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin guaranteed the following returns.

Portfolio returns are calculated in USD, assuming: June 2023 return is calculated on the hypothesis of a newly built portfolio, with the starting asset allocation.
RAY DALIO ALL WEATHER PORTFOLIO WITH BITCOIN
Consolidated returns as of 31 May 2023
Live Update: Jun 02 2023, 09:57PM Eastern Time
Swipe left to see all data
    Chg (%) Return (%) Return (%) as of May 31, 2023
    1 Day Time ET(*) Jun 2023 1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y MAX
(~14Y)
Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin 0.02 0.69 -1.90 2.71 -4.31 5.31 14.70 16.51
US Inflation Adjusted return -1.90 0.80 -7.81 1.44 11.71 13.58
Components
VTI
Vanguard Total Stock Market 1.65 Jun 02 2023 2.67 0.43 2.44 2.13 9.99 11.40 9.04
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond -1.10 Jun 02 2023 -0.71 -3.01 1.50 -9.43 -1.20 1.31 4.84
IEI
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond -0.62 Jun 02 2023 -0.33 -0.93 1.68 -1.33 0.87 0.91 4.49
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust -1.47 Jun 02 2023 -0.70 -1.34 10.62 6.53 8.17 3.13 2.91
GSG
iShares S&P GSCI Commodity Indexed Trust 1.89 Jun 02 2023 3.70 -6.23 -13.52 -25.44 1.08 -4.89 2.08
^BTC
Bitcoin 1.25 09:57PM, Jun 02 2023 1.25 -7.65 58.21 -13.80 29.91 73.29 147.10
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 2009
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Apr 2023. Waiting for updates, inflation of May 2023 is set to 0%. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 3.79% , 5Y: 3.81% , 10Y: 2.68%
Live update: World Markets and Indexes

In 2022, the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin granted a 1.31% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin: Dividend Yield page.

Portfolio Metrics as of May 31, 2023

Metrics of Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin, updated as of 31 May 2023.

Portfolio metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
RAY DALIO ALL WEATHER PORTFOLIO WITH BITCOIN
Portfolio Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 2009 - 31 May 2023 (~14 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of May 31, 2023
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y MAX
(~14Y)
Portfolio Return (%) -1.90 2.92 2.71 -4.31 1.51 5.31 14.70 16.51
US Inflation (%) 0.00 0.84 1.90 3.79 5.77 3.81 2.68 2.58
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) -1.90 2.06 0.80 -7.81 -4.02 1.44 11.71 13.58
Waiting for updates, inflation of May 2023 is temporarily set to 0%. Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 14.45 11.49 10.09 39.90 36.11
Sharpe Ratio -0.52 0.04 0.39 0.35 0.35
Sortino Ratio -0.75 0.06 0.55 1.22 1.01
MAXIMUM DRAWDOWN
Drawdown Depth (%) -11.57 -21.57 -21.57 -23.45 -36.70
Start (yyyy mm) 2022 06 2021 11 2021 11 2013 12 2011 07
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2013 12 2011 11
Start to Bottom (# months) 4 11 11 1 5
Start to Recovery (# months) in progress
> 12
> 19
> 19
45
28
ROLLING PERIOD RETURNS - Annualized
Best Return (%) 194.21 69.63 38.93 23.77
Worst Return (%) -26.91 -3.91 3.46 14.53
% Positive Periods 84% 99% 100% 100%
MONTHS
Positive 0 2 3 6 16 35 73 107
Negative 1 1 3 6 20 25 47 66
% Positive 0% 67% 50% 50% 44% 58% 61% 62%
WITHDRAWAL RATES (WR)
Safe WR (%) 34.42 22.98 26.14 21.03
Perpetual WR (%) 0.00 1.42 10.48 11.96
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Maximum Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.
  • Rolling Returns: returns over a time frame (best, worst, % of positive returns).
  • Pos./Neg. Months: number of months with positive/negative return.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the original portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money (dollar amount withdrawal).
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year, while retaining the inflation adjusted portfolio balance (percentage withdrawal).

Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.

Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1.

If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.

Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS
Monthly correlations as of 31 May 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Asset
VTI
TLT
IEI
GLD
GSG
^BTC
VTI
-
0.58
0.70
0.34
0.77
0.65
TLT
0.58
-
0.92
0.82
0.26
0.41
IEI
0.70
0.92
-
0.80
0.46
0.51
GLD
0.34
0.82
0.80
-
0.30
0.28
GSG
0.77
0.26
0.46
0.30
-
0.52
^BTC
0.65
0.41
0.51
0.28
0.52
-
Asset
VTI
TLT
IEI
GLD
GSG
^BTC
VTI
-
0.06
0.10
0.18
0.50
0.43
TLT
0.06
-
0.85
0.44
-0.37
0.14
IEI
0.10
0.85
-
0.46
-0.32
0.15
GLD
0.18
0.44
0.46
-
-0.02
0.19
GSG
0.50
-0.37
-0.32
-0.02
-
0.17
^BTC
0.43
0.14
0.15
0.19
0.17
-
Asset
VTI
TLT
IEI
GLD
GSG
^BTC
VTI
-
-0.02
0.02
0.08
0.44
0.17
TLT
-0.02
-
0.85
0.44
-0.40
-0.02
IEI
0.02
0.85
-
0.45
-0.31
0.04
GLD
0.08
0.44
0.45
-
0.06
-0.05
GSG
0.44
-0.40
-0.31
0.06
-
0.05
^BTC
0.17
-0.02
0.04
-0.05
0.05
-
Asset
VTI
TLT
IEI
GLD
GSG
^BTC
VTI
-
-0.16
-0.06
0.09
0.51
0.15
TLT
-0.16
-
0.79
0.24
-0.37
-0.03
IEI
-0.06
0.79
-
0.38
-0.27
0.09
GLD
0.09
0.24
0.38
-
0.17
0.00
GSG
0.51
-0.37
-0.27
0.17
-
0.05
^BTC
0.15
-0.03
0.09
0.00
0.05
-

If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.

Readings that may interest you

Capital Growth as of May 31, 2023

An investment of 1000$, since June 2013, now would be worth 3941.68$, with a total return of 294.17% (14.70% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 3026.72$, with a net total return of 202.67% (11.71% annualized).
An investment of 1000$, since January 2009, now would be worth 9053.01$, with a total return of 805.30% (16.51% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 6273.66$, with a net total return of 527.37% (13.58% annualized).

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

RAY DALIO ALL WEATHER PORTFOLIO WITH BITCOIN
Drawdown periods
Updated to May 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months
-23.45% Dec 2013 Dec 2013 1 Aug 2017 44 45
-21.57% Nov 2021 Sep 2022 11 in progress 8 19
-6.06% Jun 2013 Jun 2013 1 Sep 2013 3 4
-5.16% Sep 2018 Dec 2018 4 Mar 2019 3 7
-3.01% Aug 2020 Oct 2020 3 Nov 2020 1 4
-2.68% Feb 2018 Apr 2018 3 Aug 2018 4 7
-2.68% Mar 2020 Mar 2020 1 Apr 2020 1 2
-2.58% Sep 2021 Sep 2021 1 Oct 2021 1 2
-1.71% Jan 2021 Mar 2021 3 Apr 2021 1 4
-1.40% Sep 2019 Sep 2019 1 Jan 2020 4 5
-1.19% Sep 2017 Sep 2017 1 Oct 2017 1 2
-0.53% May 2021 May 2021 1 Jun 2021 1 2
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months
-36.70% Jul 2011 Nov 2011 5 Oct 2013 23 28
-23.45% Dec 2013 Dec 2013 1 Aug 2017 44 45
-21.57% Nov 2021 Sep 2022 11 in progress 8 19
-11.94% Jan 2009 Feb 2009 2 Sep 2009 7 9
-5.16% Sep 2018 Dec 2018 4 Mar 2019 3 7
-3.01% Aug 2020 Oct 2020 3 Nov 2020 1 4
-2.68% Feb 2018 Apr 2018 3 Aug 2018 4 7
-2.68% Mar 2020 Mar 2020 1 Apr 2020 1 2
-2.58% Sep 2021 Sep 2021 1 Oct 2021 1 2
-2.24% Dec 2009 Jan 2010 2 Mar 2010 2 4
-1.71% Jan 2021 Mar 2021 3 Apr 2021 1 4
-1.40% Sep 2019 Sep 2019 1 Jan 2020 4 5
-1.21% Oct 2009 Oct 2009 1 Nov 2009 1 2
-1.19% Sep 2017 Sep 2017 1 Oct 2017 1 2
-0.85% May 2010 May 2010 1 Jun 2010 1 2
-0.53% May 2021 May 2021 1 Jun 2021 1 2
-0.45% Nov 2010 Nov 2010 1 Dec 2010 1 2
-0.05% Mar 2011 Mar 2011 1 Apr 2011 1 2

Rolling Returns ( more details)

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

RAY DALIO ALL WEATHER PORTFOLIO WITH BITCOIN
Annualized Rolling Returns
Data Source: from January 2009 to May 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period		 Annualized Return (%) Negative
Periods
Average Latest Best Worst
1 Year
 21.59 -4.31 194.21
Dec 2012 - Nov 2013 		-26.91
Jul 2011 - Jun 2012 		16.05%
2 Years
 20.98 -4.26 89.09
Dec 2011 - Nov 2013 		-8.28
Dec 2013 - Nov 2015 		8.67%
3 Years
 20.47 1.51 69.63
Dec 2010 - Nov 2013 		-3.91
Dec 2013 - Nov 2016 		0.72%
5 Years
 20.76 5.31 38.93
Mar 2009 - Feb 2014 		3.46
Dec 2013 - Nov 2018 		0.00%
7 Years
 19.35 8.49 28.62
Jan 2011 - Dec 2017 		7.32
Dec 2013 - Nov 2020 		0.00%
10 Years
 20.31 14.70 23.77
Aug 2010 - Jul 2020 		14.53
May 2013 - Apr 2023 		0.00%
Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.

For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
1.80
60%
-0.63
40%
0.71
40%
0.61
80%
0.02
40%
0.67
80%
2.38
100%
0.47
60%
-2.70
0%
0.17
60%
1.97
80%
0.22
60%
 Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100
101.80
101.16
101.88
102.51
102.53
103.22
105.67
106.16
103.29
103.47
105.50
105.74
Best 6.6
2023 		1.0
2019 		4.3
2023 		4.5
2020 		1.9
2019 		4.6
2019 		5.1
2020 		3.9
2019 		-1.0
2018 		4.7
2021 		5.5
2020 		3.9
2020
Worst -3.3
2022 		-3.7
2023 		-2.7
2020 		-6.6
2022 		-1.9
2023 		-4.5
2022 		0.0
2019 		-3.8
2022 		-7.2
2022 		-3.9
2018 		-0.7
2021 		-2.8
2022
Monthly Seasonality over the period Jun 2018 - May 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
1.58
80%
-0.05
50%
0.45
40%
0.57
70%
0.67
60%
0.16
70%
1.74
90%
1.11
60%
-1.66
10%
1.89
70%
13.80
70%
-1.57
60%
 Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100
101.58
101.54
101.99
102.57
103.26
103.43
105.23
106.40
104.64
106.62
121.34
119.43
Best 6.6
2023 		2.6
2017 		4.3
2023 		4.5
2020 		2.8
2017 		4.6
2019 		5.1
2020 		5.4
2017 		1.2
2013 		11.8
2013 		121.0
2013 		5.3
2017
Worst -3.3
2022 		-3.7
2023 		-2.7
2020 		-6.6
2022 		-1.9
2023 		-6.1
2013 		-1.1
2014 		-3.8
2022 		-7.2
2022 		-3.9
2018 		-2.6
2016 		-23.4
2013
Monthly Seasonality over the period Jun 2013 - May 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
0.82
73%
0.25
60%
1.22
47%
2.50
73%
2.22
60%
2.35
71%
1.27
86%
0.08
64%
-1.59
29%
0.87
57%
10.16
64%
-0.36
57%
 Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100
100.82
101.07
102.31
104.87
107.20
109.72
111.11
111.20
109.43
110.38
121.60
121.16
Best 6.6
2023 		4.5
2011 		9.7
2013 		20.0
2011 		28.2
2011 		29.0
2011 		5.1
2020 		5.4
2017 		2.7
2009 		11.8
2013 		121.0
2013 		9.7
2011
Worst -8.1
2009 		-4.1
2009 		-2.7
2020 		-6.6
2022 		-3.4
2013 		-6.1
2013 		-7.7
2011 		-16.1
2011 		-11.2
2011 		-7.3
2011 		-2.6
2016 		-23.4
2013
Monthly Seasonality over the period Jan 2009 - May 2023

Monthly/Yearly Returns

Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin data source starts from January 2009: let's focus on monthly and yearly returns.

We are providing two different views:
  • Histogram: it shows the distribution of the returns recorded so far
  • Plain Table: it shows the detailed monthly and yearly returns
MONTHLY RETURNS HISTOGRAM
Jan 2009 - May 2023
107 Positive Months (62%) - 66 Negative Months (38%)
MONTHLY RETURNS TABLE
Jan 2009 - May 2023
(Scroll down to see all data)
Swipe left to see all data
Yearly Return(%)
Monthly Return(%)
Year Total Infl.Adj Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2023
 +5.64 +3.36 6.6 -3.7 4.3 0.6 -1.9
2022
 -19.54 -24.41 -3.3 -0.1 -0.8 -6.6 -0.8 -4.5 3.7 -3.8 -7.2 0.7 4.7 -2.8
2021
 +8.91 +1.75 -1.2 -0.3 -0.2 3.3 -0.5 2.1 2.8 0.9 -2.6 4.7 -0.7 0.5
2020
 +20.78 +19.15 3.6 0.0 -2.7 4.5 1.5 1.1 5.1 -0.2 -1.4 -1.5 5.5 3.9
2019
 +19.77 +17.10 3.4 1.0 3.0 1.2 1.9 4.6 0.0 3.9 -1.4 0.8 0.1 0.1
2018
 -4.47 -6.26 0.1 -2.7 0.2 -0.2 1.5 0.2 0.2 1.6 -1.0 -3.9 0.3 -0.6
2017
 +36.73 +33.91 1.1 2.6 -0.8 1.5 2.8 1.1 1.1 5.4 -1.2 4.3 9.0 5.3
2016
 +8.17 +5.97 0.6 2.3 2.0 1.0 0.8 4.3 1.5 -0.8 -0.1 -2.5 -2.6 1.6
2015
 -2.53 -3.23 2.9 -1.1 -0.4 -0.8 -0.6 -2.1 1.2 -2.3 -0.3 2.8 -0.8 -0.9
2014
 +11.71 +10.87 2.1 1.6 -0.1 1.0 2.2 1.2 -1.1 3.1 -2.6 1.6 1.7 0.7
2013
 +126.20 +122.85 1.6 2.2 9.7 7.5 -3.4 -6.1 2.8 3.4 1.2 11.8 121.0 -23.4
2012
 +10.28 +8.39 2.7 0.1 -1.0 1.7 0.3 1.3 3.3 1.3 0.8 -1.7 1.4 -0.4
2011
 +44.99 +40.82 0.7 4.5 -0.1 20.0 28.2 29.0 -7.7 -16.1 -11.2 -7.3 -0.5 9.7
2010
 +19.12 +17.37 -0.3 1.5 1.0 2.7 -0.9 1.2 1.6 2.5 2.2 3.5 -0.4 3.3
2009
 +1.98 -0.72 -8.1 -4.1 4.3 -0.1 2.3 -0.1 3.1 2.2 2.7 -1.2 3.8 -1.9

Portfolio efficiency

Compared to the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin, the following portfolios granted a higher return over 10 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.

Swipe left to see all data
10 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Author Return▾ Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 with Bitcoin +16.93 37.56 -22.56 59 39 2
Golden Butterfly with Bitcoin +15.38 39.15 -23.09 40 40 20
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 with Bitcoin +15.16 38.23 -22.55 39 59 2
All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin Ray Dalio +14.70 39.90 -23.45 30 55 15

The following portfolios share asset allocation strategy and/or similar asset weights.

Swipe left to see all data
5 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Author Return▾ Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin Harry Browne +6.36 8.74 -16.88 25 50 25
Simplified Permanent Portfolio 2x Leveraged +6.22 15.96 -31.96 25 50 25
All Weather Portfolio 2x Leveraged Ray Dalio +5.88 20.04 -36.33 37.5 55 7.5
All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin Ray Dalio +5.31 10.10 -21.57 30 55 15
Simplified Permanent Portfolio +5.16 8.17 -16.43 25 50 25
Permanent Portfolio Harry Browne +5.03 8.03 -15.92 25 50 25
All Weather Portfolio Ray Dalio +3.99 9.33 -20.19 30 55 15

Here's a list containing the Best Classic Portfolios, with the highest returns over 10 Years and Medium Risk categorization.

Swipe left to see all data
10 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Author Return▾ Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Couch Potato Scott Burns +6.61 9.01 -19.77 50 50 0
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Momentum +5.58 7.52 -21.11 40 60 0
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 +5.55 7.38 -18.63 40 60 0
One-Decision Portfolio Marvin Appel +5.37 8.49 -16.74 50 50 0
Four Square Scott Burns +4.95 8.37 -19.67 50 50 0