Data Source: from January 2009 to February 2023 (~14 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 28 February 2023
Live Update: Mar 20 2023, 08:58PM Eastern Time
Consolidated Returns as of 28 February 2023
Live Update: Mar 20 2023, 08:58PM Eastern Time
Commodity: Bitcoin (^BTC)
COMMODITY • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
0.36%
1 Day
Mar 20 2023, 08:58PM Eastern Time
18.15%
Current Month
March 2023
In the last 10 Years, the Bitcoin (^BTC) Commodity obtained a 95.34% compound annual return, with a 180.64% standard deviation.
The Bitcoin (^BTC) Commodity is part of the following Lazy Portfolios:
| Portfolio Name | Author | ^BTC Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Stocks/Bonds 60/40 with Bitcoin | 2.00% | |
| Stocks/Bonds 40/60 with Bitcoin | 2.00% | |
| All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin | Ray Dalio | 2.00% |
| Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin | Harry Browne | 2.00% |
| Golden Butterfly with Bitcoin | 2.00% | |
| Desert Portfolio with Bitcoin | Gyroscopic Investing | 2.00% |
Historical Returns as of Feb 28, 2023
Historical returns and Metrics of Bitcoin (^BTC) Commodity.
Returns and metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
- No fees or capital gain taxes
BITCOIN (^BTC) COMMODITY
Portfolio Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 2009 - 28 February 2023 (~14 years)
Swipe left to see all data
| Metrics as of Feb 28, 2023 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y |
MAX
(~14Y) |
|
| Portfolio Return (%) |
1.11 | 35.84 | 15.52 | -45.90 | 39.90 | 16.76 | 95.34 | 148.39 |
| US Inflation (%) | 0.56 | 1.05 | 1.58 | 6.04 | 5.16 | 3.86 | 2.63 | 2.56 |
| Infl. Adjusted Return (%) |
0.55 | 34.42 | 13.73 | -48.98 | 33.04 | 12.42 | 90.35 | 142.18 |
| Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized. | ||||||||
| RISK INDICATORS | ||||||||
| Standard Deviation (%) | 68.90 | 78.04 | 78.54 | 180.64 | 193.31 | |||
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.70 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 0.52 | 0.75 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | -1.05 | 0.74 | 0.30 | 1.47 | 2.07 | |||
| MAXIMUM DRAWDOWN | ||||||||
| Drawdown Depth (%) | -63.15 | -72.55 | -72.55 | -80.43 | -81.56 | |||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2022 04 | 2021 11 | 2021 11 | 2013 12 | 2011 07 | |||
| Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2022 12 | 2022 12 | 2022 12 | 2015 04 | 2011 11 | |||
| Start to Bottom (# months) | 9 | 14 | 14 | 17 | 5 | |||
| Start to Recovery (# months) in progress |
> 11
|
> 16
|
> 16
|
39
|
19
|
|||
| ROLLING PERIOD RETURNS - Annualized | ||||||||
| Best Return (%) | 23946.19 | 1738.60 | 575.68 | 238.15 | ||||
| Worst Return (%) | -73.03 | -14.12 | 5.22 | 95.34 | ||||
| % Positive Periods | 77% | 99% | 100% | 100% | ||||
| MONTHS | ||||||||
| Positive | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 28 | 65 | 107 |
| Negative | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 55 | 63 |
| % Positive | 100% | 67% | 50% | 42% | 53% | 47% | 54% | 63% |
| WITHDRAWAL RATES (WR) | ||||||||
| Safe WR (%) | 92.53 | 16.89 | 391.37 | 80.18 | ||||
| Perpetual WR (%) | 24.83 | 11.05 | 47.46 | 58.71 | ||||
- Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the Commodity
- Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean
- Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the Commodity. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the Commodity over the risk-free rate by the Commodity standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
- Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the Commodity. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the Commodity downside standard deviation).
- Maximum Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.
- Rolling Returns: returns over a time frame (best, worst, % of positive returns).
- Pos./Neg. Months: number of months with positive/negative return.
- Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the original portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money (dollar amount withdrawal).
- Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year, while retaining the inflation adjusted portfolio balance (percentage withdrawal).
Correlations as of Feb 28, 2023
Monthly correlations of Bitcoin (^BTC) Commodity vs the main Asset Classes, over different timeframes.
Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.
Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1.
If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
Columns are sortable (click on table header to sort).
BITCOIN (^BTC) COMMODITY
Monthly correlations as of 28 February 2023
Swipe left to see all data
| Correlation vs ^BTC | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
|||||
| Asset Class | 1 Year | 5 Years | 10 Years | Since Jan 2009 |
|
|
US Total Stock Market VTI |
0.66
|
0.41
|
0.18
|
0.15
|
|
|
US Large Cap SPY |
0.64
|
0.40
|
0.19
|
0.16
|
|
|
US Small Cap IJR |
0.66
|
0.38
|
0.17
|
0.13
|
|
|
US REITs VNQ |
0.65
|
0.34
|
0.03
|
0.07
|
|
|
US Technology QQQ |
0.70
|
0.40
|
0.18
|
0.14
|
|
|
Preferred Stocks PFF |
0.64
|
0.42
|
0.15
|
0.06
|
|
|
EAFE Stocks EFA |
0.51
|
0.35
|
0.13
|
0.13
|
|
|
World All Countries VT |
0.60
|
0.39
|
0.16
|
0.14
|
|
|
Emerging Markets EEM |
0.22
|
0.20
|
0.06
|
0.04
|
|
|
Europe VGK |
0.52
|
0.37
|
0.12
|
0.14
|
|
|
Pacific VPL |
0.46
|
0.30
|
0.12
|
0.11
|
|
|
Latin America FLLA |
0.64
|
0.32
|
0.05
|
0.03
|
|
|
US Total Bond Market BND |
0.39
|
0.23
|
0.07
|
0.08
|
|
|
Long Term Treasuries TLT |
0.34
|
0.08
|
-0.01
|
-0.04
|
|
|
US Cash BIL |
0.20
|
-0.14
|
-0.12
|
-0.11
|
|
|
TIPS TIP |
0.55
|
0.34
|
0.07
|
0.10
|
|
|
Invest. Grade Bonds LQD |
0.44
|
0.31
|
0.10
|
0.10
|
|
|
High Yield Bonds HYG |
0.68
|
0.40
|
0.15
|
0.12
|
|
|
International Bonds BNDX |
0.53
|
0.30
|
0.14
|
0.10
|
|
|
Emerg. Market Bonds EMB |
0.39
|
0.29
|
0.05
|
0.06
|
|
|
Gold GLD |
0.20
|
0.16
|
-0.06
|
0.00
|
|
|
Commodities DBC |
0.18
|
0.18
|
0.05
|
0.07
|
|
Capital Growth as of Feb 28, 2023
An investment of 1000$, since March 2013,
now would be worth 809011.19$, with a total return of 80801.12% (95.34% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 624334.84$, with a net total return of 62333.48% (90.35% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 624334.84$, with a net total return of 62333.48% (90.35% annualized).
An investment of 1000$, since January 2009,
now would be worth 395942414.45$, with a total return of 39594141.44% (148.39% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 276685885.87$, with a net total return of 27668488.59% (142.18% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 276685885.87$, with a net total return of 27668488.59% (142.18% annualized).
Readings that may interest you
Drawdowns
Worst drawdowns since March 2013.
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period |
Recovery period |
Total |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months |
| -80.43% | Dec 2013 | Apr 2015 | 17 | Feb 2017 | 22 | 39 |
| -73.81% | Jan 2018 | Jan 2019 | 13 | Oct 2020 | 21 | 34 |
| -72.55% | Nov 2021 | Dec 2022 | 14 | in progress | 2 | 16 |
| -40.65% | Apr 2021 | Jun 2021 | 3 | Oct 2021 | 4 | 7 |
| -29.97% | May 2013 | Jun 2013 | 2 | Aug 2013 | 2 | 4 |
| -11.86% | Mar 2017 | Mar 2017 | 1 | Apr 2017 | 1 | 2 |
| -10.02% | Sep 2017 | Sep 2017 | 1 | Oct 2017 | 1 | 2 |
Worst drawdowns since January 2009.
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period |
Recovery period |
Total |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months |
| -81.56% | Jul 2011 | Nov 2011 | 5 | Jan 2013 | 14 | 19 |
| -80.43% | Dec 2013 | Apr 2015 | 17 | Feb 2017 | 22 | 39 |
| -73.81% | Jan 2018 | Jan 2019 | 13 | Oct 2020 | 21 | 34 |
| -72.55% | Nov 2021 | Dec 2022 | 14 | in progress | 2 | 16 |
| -40.65% | Apr 2021 | Jun 2021 | 3 | Oct 2021 | 4 | 7 |
| -29.97% | May 2013 | Jun 2013 | 2 | Aug 2013 | 2 | 4 |
| -11.86% | Mar 2017 | Mar 2017 | 1 | Apr 2017 | 1 | 2 |
| -10.02% | Sep 2017 | Sep 2017 | 1 | Oct 2017 | 1 | 2 |
| -8.77% | Mar 2011 | Mar 2011 | 1 | Apr 2011 | 1 | 2 |
Rolling Returns ( more details)
Bitcoin (^BTC) Commodity: annualized rolling and average returns
Swipe left to see all data
| Rolling Period |
Return (*) | Negative Periods |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average (%) | Best (%) | Worst (%) | ||
| 1 Year |
929.86 |
23946.19 Jul 2010 - Jun 2011 |
-73.03 Feb 2014 - Jan 2015 |
22.64% |
| 2 Years |
319.61 |
1987.58 Dec 2011 - Nov 2013 |
-43.00 Dec 2013 - Nov 2015 |
10.88% |
| 3 Years |
260.53 |
1738.60 Dec 2010 - Nov 2013 |
-14.12 Dec 2013 - Nov 2016 |
0.74% |
| 5 Years |
205.52 |
575.68 Feb 2009 - Jan 2014 |
5.22 Jan 2018 - Dec 2022 |
0.00% |
| 7 Years |
179.63 |
400.12 Sep 2010 - Aug 2017 |
49.62 Dec 2013 - Nov 2020 |
0.00% |
| 10 Years |
181.65 |
238.15 Sep 2010 - Aug 2020 |
95.34 Mar 2013 - Feb 2023 |
0.00% |
(*) Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods
If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Bitcoin (^BTC) Commodity: Rolling Returns page.
Seasonality
Bitcoin (^BTC) Commodity: in which months is it better to invest?
Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Swipe left to see all data
| Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Average Gain Frequency |
11.85
60% |
10.78
80% |
-3.78
60% |
15.95
60% |
-0.69
40% |
-7.12
20% |
16.45
80% |
-2.29
40% |
-7.83
0% |
16.43
80% |
-7.66
20% |
3.23
20% |
| Capital Growth on monthly avg returns | ||||||||||||
|
100
|
111.85
|
123.91
|
119.23
|
138.25
|
137.30
|
127.52
|
148.50
|
145.10
|
133.75
|
155.72
|
143.80
|
148.44
|
| Best |
38.9 2023 |
36.3 2021 |
30.2 2021 |
36.0 2020 |
61.3 2019 |
28.4 2019 |
24.9 2022 |
12.1 2021 |
-3.5 2022 |
40.4 2021 |
39.5 2020 |
50.2 2020 |
| Worst |
-16.7 2022 |
-8.0 2020 |
-36.1 2018 |
-15.7 2022 |
-35.6 2021 |
-40.6 2022 |
-8.5 2019 |
-13.7 2022 |
-14.4 2019 |
-3.9 2018 |
-37.5 2018 |
-19.3 2021 |
Monthly Seasonality over the period Mar 2018 - Feb 2023
Swipe left to see all data
| Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Average Gain Frequency |
0.72
40% |
8.69
80% |
12.43
40% |
14.97
60% |
11.37
60% |
-1.60
40% |
10.35
80% |
5.17
40% |
-6.35
30% |
22.93
80% |
55.25
60% |
3.02
40% |
| Capital Growth on monthly avg returns | ||||||||||||
|
100
|
100.72
|
109.48
|
123.08
|
141.50
|
157.59
|
155.07
|
171.11
|
179.97
|
168.55
|
207.19
|
321.67
|
331.37
|
| Best |
38.9 2023 |
36.3 2021 |
178.7 2013 |
49.7 2013 |
65.5 2017 |
28.4 2019 |
24.9 2022 |
72.0 2017 |
5.4 2016 |
57.7 2013 |
489.2 2013 |
50.2 2020 |
| Worst |
-26.8 2015 |
-32.6 2014 |
-36.1 2018 |
-15.7 2022 |
-35.6 2021 |
-40.6 2022 |
-8.5 2019 |
-20.8 2015 |
-25.1 2014 |
-8.6 2014 |
-37.5 2018 |
-35.6 2013 |
Monthly Seasonality over the period Mar 2013 - Feb 2023
Swipe left to see all data
| Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Average Gain Frequency |
9.85
60% |
13.64
80% |
8.25
50% |
35.41
71% |
19.15
71% |
6.95
57% |
9.01
79% |
1.56
50% |
-5.62
43% |
28.13
71% |
39.72
64% |
10.05
57% |
| Capital Growth on monthly avg returns | ||||||||||||
|
100
|
109.85
|
124.83
|
135.13
|
182.98
|
218.01
|
233.17
|
254.18
|
258.14
|
243.62
|
312.15
|
436.16
|
479.97
|
| Best |
73.3 2011 |
65.4 2011 |
178.7 2013 |
346.1 2011 |
149.7 2011 |
84.2 2011 |
39.8 2012 |
72.0 2017 |
22.1 2012 |
211.0 2010 |
489.2 2013 |
58.9 2011 |
| Worst |
-26.8 2015 |
-32.6 2014 |
-36.1 2018 |
-15.7 2022 |
-35.6 2021 |
-40.6 2022 |
-17.1 2011 |
-38.6 2011 |
-37.3 2011 |
-36.8 2011 |
-37.5 2018 |
-35.6 2013 |
Monthly Seasonality over the period Jan 2009 - Feb 2023
Monthly/Yearly Returns
Bitcoin (^BTC) Commodity data source starts from January 2009: let's focus on monthly and yearly returns.
We are providing two different views:
- Histogram: it shows the distribution of the returns recorded so far
- Plain Table: it shows the detailed monthly and yearly returns
MONTHLY RETURNS HISTOGRAM
Jan 2009 - Feb 2023
107 Positive Months (63%) - 63 Negative Months (37%)
MONTHLY RETURNS TABLE
Jan 2009 - Feb 2023
(Scroll down to see all data)
Swipe left to see all data
Yearly Return(%) |
Monthly Return(%) |
|||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Infl.Adj | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| 2023 |
+40.41 | +38.52 | 38.9 | 1.1 | ||||||||||
| 2022 |
-63.62 | -65.83 | -16.7 | 13.4 | 4.6 | -15.7 | -17.1 | -40.6 | 24.9 | -13.7 | -3.5 | 5.5 | -16.5 | -3.3 |
| 2021 |
+59.10 | +48.64 | 13.7 | 36.3 | 30.2 | -2.4 | -35.6 | -5.6 | 20.1 | 12.1 | -6.8 | 40.4 | -6.4 | -19.3 |
| 2020 |
+305.46 | +300.01 | 30.8 | -8.0 | -25.4 | 36.0 | 7.5 | -3.0 | 24.3 | 2.7 | -8.0 | 29.3 | 39.5 | 50.2 |
| 2019 |
+94.60 | +90.25 | -7.3 | 11.1 | 7.8 | 28.9 | 61.3 | 28.4 | -8.5 | -3.8 | -14.4 | 10.8 | -17.4 | -4.8 |
| 2018 |
-71.75 | -72.28 | -24.1 | 10.0 | -36.1 | 33.0 | -19.6 | -14.8 | 21.4 | -8.7 | -6.4 | -3.9 | -37.5 | -6.7 |
| 2017 |
+1271.42 | +1243.09 | -3.3 | 29.2 | -11.9 | 25.0 | 65.5 | 17.3 | 6.7 | 72.0 | -10.0 | 45.7 | 72.0 | 23.9 |
| 2016 |
+124.13 | +119.57 | -11.0 | 15.9 | -5.4 | 9.6 | 18.2 | 18.2 | 0.1 | -9.7 | 5.4 | 14.8 | 5.4 | 30.2 |
| 2015 |
+37.13 | +36.13 | -26.8 | 10.6 | -1.5 | -8.6 | 3.2 | 10.7 | 11.0 | -20.8 | 4.8 | 37.6 | 14.5 | 13.3 |
| 2014 |
-58.36 | -58.67 | 13.1 | -32.6 | -16.7 | -5.8 | 37.6 | -2.4 | -5.5 | -11.1 | -25.1 | -8.6 | 9.7 | -17.8 |
| 2013 |
+6187.49 | +6094.47 | 51.1 | 63.6 | 178.7 | 49.7 | -7.5 | -24.3 | 8.9 | 32.8 | 0.6 | 57.7 | 489.2 | -35.6 |
| 2012 |
+181.03 | +176.22 | 16.1 | -11.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.7 | 29.2 | 39.8 | 8.7 | 22.1 | -9.7 | 12.2 | 7.5 |
| 2011 |
+1472.96 | +1427.70 | 73.3 | 65.4 | -8.8 | 346.1 | 149.7 | 84.2 | -17.1 | -38.6 | -37.3 | -36.8 | -8.6 | 58.9 |
| 2010 |
+348.11 | +341.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 211.0 | 0.0 | 44.1 |
| 2009 |
0.00 | -2.65 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
