Data Source: from October 2013 to December 2021

Last Update: 31 December 2021

The Golden Butterfly with Bitcoin Portfolio is exposed for 40% on the Stock Market and for 20% on Commodities.

It's a High Risk portfolio and it can be replicated with 6 ETFs.

In the last 5 years, the portfolio obtained a 15.28% compound annual return, with a 9.03% standard deviation.

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Golden Butterfly with Bitcoin Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

40% Stocks
40% Fixed Income
20% Commodities

The Golden Butterfly with Bitcoin Portfolio can be replicated with the following ETFs:

Weight Ticker ETF Name Investment Themes
20.00 % IJS iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value Equity, U.S., Small Cap, Value
20.00 % VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market Equity, U.S., Large Cap
20.00 % SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond Bond, U.S., Short Term
20.00 % TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Bond, U.S., Long-Term
18.00 % GLD SPDR Gold Trust Commodity, Gold
2.00 % ^BTC Bitcoin Commodities
Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns

The Golden Butterfly with Bitcoin Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

GOLDEN BUTTERFLY WITH BITCOIN PORTFOLIO RETURNS (%)
Last Update: 31 December 2021
Swipe left to see all data
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y(*) 5Y(*)
Golden Butterfly with Bitcoin Portfolio +1.19 +4.24 +3.73 +10.61 +16.50 +15.28
--- Inflation Adjusted return +0.72 +1.99 +0.32 +3.26 +12.52 +12.01
Components
IJS
iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value 		+4.12 +4.30 +0.09 +30.53 +18.47 +10.04
VTI
Vanguard Total Stock Market 		+3.79 +9.11 +9.08 +25.67 +25.73 +17.96
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond 		-0.21 -0.60 -0.57 -0.72 +1.88 +1.47
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond 		-2.01 +3.18 +3.55 -4.60 +8.75 +6.68
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust 		+3.30 +4.10 +3.22 -4.15 +12.13 +9.30
^BTC
Bitcoin 		-19.34 +5.94 +32.88 +59.10 +132.41 +117.46
(*) annualized
Portfolio returns are calculated assuming:
  • a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (i.e. at every January 1st)
  • the reinvestment of dividends

Inflation is updated to Dec 2021. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 7.12% , 3Y: 3.53% , 5Y: 2.92%

In 2021, the portfolio granted a 1.03% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Golden Butterfly with Bitcoin Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

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Historical Returns

Historical returns and stats of Golden Butterfly with Bitcoin Portfolio. Total Returns and Inflation Adjusted Returns are both mentioned.

GOLDEN BUTTERFLY WITH BITCOIN PORTFOLIO
Last Update: 31 December 2021
Swipe left to see all data
Period Return
Dec 2021
update		 Return
Inflation
Adjusted		 Standard
Deviation(*)		 Max
Drawdown		 Months
Pos - Neg
1M
Dec 2021
+1.19%
+0.72%
0.00%
1 - 0
3M
+4.24%
+1.99%
-0.82%
Nov 2021 - Nov 2021
2 - 1
6M
+3.73%
+0.32%
-2.56%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
4 - 2
YTD
+10.61%
+3.26%
5.41%
-2.56%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
9 - 3
75% pos
1Y
+10.61%
+3.26%
5.41%
-2.56%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
9 - 3
75% pos
3Y
+16.50%
annualized
+12.52%
annualized
8.88%
-7.91%
Feb 2020 - Mar 2020
27 - 9
75% pos
5Y
+15.28%
annualized
+12.01%
annualized
9.03%
-7.91%
Feb 2020 - Mar 2020
44 - 16
73% pos
MAX
01 Oct 2013
+12.78%
annualized
+10.32%
annualized
9.70%
-7.91%
Feb 2020 - Mar 2020
66 - 33
67% pos
(*)Annualized St.Dev. of monthly returns

Portfolio efficiency

Is the Golden Butterfly with Bitcoin Portfolio actually efficient, compared to other Lazy Portfolios?

Similar portfolios, ordered by 5 Years annualized return.

These portfolios share asset allocation strategy and/or similar asset weights. Comparing their returns and drawdowns, you can get an idea of the risk you are facing implementing one of them.

5 Years Stats
% Allocation
Portfolio Return▾ Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm.
Golden Butterfly with Bitcoin
 +15.28% -7.92% 40 40 20
Golden Butterfly 2x Leveraged
 +14.85% -13.21% 40 40 20 Compare
Golden Butterfly
 +9.38% -7.15% 40 40 20 Compare

Best Classic Portfolios, with High Risk, ordered by 5 Years annualized return.

5 Years Stats
% Allocation
Portfolio Return▾ Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm.
Simple Path to Wealth
JL Collins		 +14.46% -15.47% 75 25 0 Compare
Edge Select Moderately Aggressive
Merrill Lynch		 +12.37% -14.28% 69 31 0 Compare
Stocks/Bonds 60/40
 +12.32% -12.29% 60 40 0 Compare
Jane Bryant Quinn's Portfolio
Jane Bryant Quinn		 +11.79% -15.08% 70 30 0 Compare
Yale Endowment
David Swensen		 +11.74% -13.19% 70 30 0 Compare

See all portfolios

Capital Growth

Time Range:

An investment of 1000$, since January 2017, now would be worth 2035.58$, with a total return of 103.56% (15.28% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 1762.75$, with a net total return of 76.27% (12.01% annualized).

Drawdowns

Time Range:

Worst drawdowns since January 2017 - Chart and Data

Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months
-7.91% Feb 2020 Mar 2020 2 Jun 2020 3 5
-7.04% Sep 2018 Dec 2018 4 Apr 2019 4 8
-2.56% Sep 2021 Sep 2021 1 Oct 2021 1 2
-2.47% Feb 2018 Mar 2018 2 Aug 2018 5 7
-2.43% Sep 2020 Sep 2020 1 Nov 2020 2 3
-0.82% Nov 2021 Nov 2021 1 Dec 2021 1 2
-0.60% Mar 2017 Mar 2017 1 Apr 2017 1 2
-0.45% Sep 2019 Sep 2019 1 Oct 2019 1 2
-0.29% Jun 2021 Jun 2021 1 Jul 2021 1 2
-0.23% May 2019 May 2019 1 Jun 2019 1 2
-0.07% Nov 2019 Nov 2019 1 Dec 2019 1 2

Rolling Returns ( more details)

Golden Butterfly with Bitcoin Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns

Swipe left to see all data
Return (*) Negative
Periods
Rolling Period Average Best Worst
1 Year
 +12.38% +36.14%
Jan 2017 - Dec 2017 		-5.42%
Jan 2018 - Dec 2018 		9.09%
2 Years
 +11.97% +24.74%
Feb 2016 - Jan 2018 		+0.15%
Dec 2013 - Nov 2015 		0.00%
3 Years
 +12.38% +16.50%
Jan 2019 - Dec 2021 		+3.29%
Dec 2013 - Nov 2016 		0.00%
5 Years
 +12.48% +15.91%
Feb 2016 - Jan 2021 		+8.13%
Dec 2013 - Nov 2018 		0.00%
7 Years
 +11.89% +12.56%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2021 		+10.02%
Dec 2013 - Nov 2020 		0.00%

* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Golden Butterfly with Bitcoin Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

Golden Butterfly with Bitcoin Portfolio Seasonality: in which months is it better to invest?

In the table below, the average monthly return is represented.

Below each return, it's also mentioned the probability of obtaining a positive monthly result (Win %).

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.

Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Win %		 1.32
88% 		0.81
63% 		-0.24
38% 		1.62
88% 		0.83
75% 		1.61
63% 		1.06
75% 		1.23
75% 		-1.40
25% 		1.30
78% 		3.43
67% 		0.69
67%
Best
Year		 4.7
2019 		3.4
2016 		2.8
2016 		6.6
2020 		1.9
2017 		5.8
2019 		5.3
2020 		4.7
2017 		0.2
2016 		3.9
2017 		14.9
2013 		5.7
2020
Worst
Year		 -0.3
2016 		-2.4
2018 		-5.9
2020 		-1.1
2015 		-0.3
2016 		-1.2
2015 		-2.0
2014 		-2.1
2015 		-3.5
2014 		-4.0
2018 		-0.8
2021 		-5.7
2013
Statistics calculated for the period Oct 2013 - Dec 2021

For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.

Monthly/Yearly Returns

Golden Butterfly with Bitcoin Portfolio monthly and yearly returns: how is the distribution of the returns recorded so far?

MONTHLY RETURNS HISTOGRAM
66 Positive Months (67%) - 33 Negative Months (33%)
Oct 2013 - Dec 2021
Swipe left to see all data
Yearly Return(%)
Monthly Return(%)
Year Total Infl.Adj Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2021
 +10.61 +3.26 0.2 1.5 1.8 2.3 0.9 -0.3 0.8 1.3 -2.6 3.9 -0.8 1.2
2020
 +19.54 +18.01 1.8 -2.2 -5.9 6.6 1.6 1.5 5.3 0.9 -2.4 0.1 5.8 5.7
2019
 +19.56 +16.92 4.7 1.5 0.5 1.9 -0.2 5.8 0.2 2.0 -0.4 1.5 -0.1 1.0
2018
 -5.42 -7.21 0.7 -2.4 0.0 0.2 1.7 -0.4 0.8 1.3 -1.4 -4.0 0.6 -2.4
2017
 +36.14 +33.33 1.2 2.5 -0.6 1.5 1.9 1.2 1.2 4.7 0.0 3.9 9.2 4.8
2016
 +13.14 +10.87 -0.3 3.4 2.8 1.6 -0.3 3.9 2.6 -0.9 0.2 -2.3 0.4 1.6
2015
 -2.76 -3.37 1.5 -0.2 -0.2 -1.1 0.1 -1.2 -0.3 -2.1 -1.1 3.7 -0.5 -1.3
2014
 +8.01 +7.31 0.8 2.4 -0.4 0.0 1.1 2.3 -2.0 2.7 -3.5 2.0 1.3 1.2
2013
 - - 2.9 14.9 -5.7
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