Golden Butterfly with Bitcoin Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns

Data Source: from October 2013 to September 2021

Last Update: 30 September 2021

The Golden Butterfly with Bitcoin Portfolio is exposed for 40% on the Stock Market and for 20% on Commodities.

It's a High Risk portfolio and it can be replicated with 6 ETFs.

In 2020, the portfolio granted a 1.09% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Golden Butterfly with Bitcoin Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Golden Butterfly with Bitcoin Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

        40% Stocks
      
        40% Fixed Income
      
        20% Commodities

The Golden Butterfly with Bitcoin Portfolio can be replicated with the following ETFs:

Weight	Ticker	ETF Name	Investment Themes
20.00 %	IJS	iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value	Equity, U.S., Small Cap, Value
20.00 %	VTI	Vanguard Total Stock Market	Equity, U.S., Large Cap
20.00 %	TLT	iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond	Bond, U.S., Long-Term
20.00 %	SHY	iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond	Bond, U.S., Short Term
18.00 %	GLD	SPDR Gold Trust	Commodity, Gold
2.00 %	GBTC	Grayscale Bitcoin Trust	Commodity, Bitcoin

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns

The Golden Butterfly with Bitcoin Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

GOLDEN BUTTERFLY WITH BITCOIN PORTFOLIO RETURNS (%)

Last Update: 30 September 2021

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	1M	3M	6M	1Y	*3Y^()**	*5Y^()**
Golden Butterfly with Bitcoin Portfolio	-2.61	-0.83	+2.51	+17.82	+12.35	+14.81
*Components*
IJS iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value	-1.46	-4.03	+0.66	+66.24	+8.16	+11.74
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market	-4.46	-0.03	+8.10	+32.16	+16.05	+16.88
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond	-2.91	+0.36	+7.41	-10.30	+9.25	+3.19
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond	-0.10	+0.03	-0.02	-0.10	+2.53	+1.51
GLD SPDR Gold Trust	-3.22	-0.85	+2.66	-7.28	+13.35	+5.50
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust	-10.38	+13.55	-32.35	+208.57	+62.15	+102.71

(*) annualized

Portfolio returns are calculated assuming:

a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (i.e. at every January 1st)
the reinvestment of dividends

If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Golden Butterfly with Bitcoin Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Readings that may interest you

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The Richest Man in Babylon

Historical Returns

Golden Butterfly with Bitcoin Portfolio - Historical returns and stats.

GOLDEN BUTTERFLY WITH BITCOIN PORTFOLIO

Last Update: 30 September 2021

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Period	Returns Sep 2021	Standard Deviation *	Max Drawdown	Months Pos - Neg
1M	-2.61%		-2.61% Sep 2021 - Sep 2021	0 - 1
3M	-0.83%		-2.61% Sep 2021 - Sep 2021	2 - 1
6M	+2.51%		-2.61% Sep 2021 - Sep 2021	4 - 2
YTD	+5.22%		-2.61% Sep 2021 - Sep 2021	7 - 2
1Y	+17.82%	7.76%	-2.61% Sep 2021 - Sep 2021	10 - 2
3Y	+12.35% annualized	9.59%	-8.01% Feb 2020 - Mar 2020	27 - 9
5Y	+14.81% annualized	10.62%	-8.01% Feb 2020 - Mar 2020	42 - 18
MAX 01 Oct 2013	+12.98% annualized	10.74%	-8.01% Feb 2020 - Mar 2020	62 - 34

* Annualized St.Dev. of monthly returns

Similar portfolios, ordered by 5 Years annualized return.

These portfolios share asset allocation strategy and/or similar asset weights. Comparing their returns and drawdowns, you can get an idea of the risk you are facing implementing one of them.

	5 Years Stats		% Allocation
Portfolio	Return▾	Drawdown	Stocks	Bonds	Comm.
Golden Butterfly with Bitcoin	+14.81%	-8.01%	40	40	20
Golden Butterfly	+8.04%	-7.15%	40	40	20	Compare

Best Classic Portfolios, with High Risk, ordered by 5 Years annualized return.

	5 Years Stats		% Allocation
Portfolio	Return▾	Drawdown	Stocks	Bonds	Comm.
Simple Path to Wealth JL Collins	+13.44%	-15.47%	75	25	0	Compare
Stocks/Bonds 60/40	+11.35%	-12.29%	60	40	0	Compare
Edge Select Moderately Aggressive Merrill Lynch	+11.34%	-14.28%	69	31	0	Compare
No Brainer Portfolio Bill Bernstein	+10.55%	-18.24%	75	25	0	Compare
Margaritaville Scott Burns	+10.21%	-14.40%	67	33	0	Compare

See all portfolios

Capital Growth

Time Range:

Drawdowns

Time Range:

Worst drawdowns since October 2016 - Chart and Data

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	Drawdown period			Recovery period		Total
Drawdown	Start	Bottom	#Months	End	#Months	#Months
-8.01%	Feb 2020	Mar 2020	2	Jun 2020	3	5
-7.05%	Sep 2018	Dec 2018	4	Apr 2019	4	8
-3.29%	Sep 2017	Sep 2017	1	Nov 2017	2	3
-2.77%	Sep 2020	Sep 2020	1	Nov 2020	2	3
-2.61%	Sep 2021	Sep 2021	1	in progress		1
-2.48%	Feb 2018	Mar 2018	2	Aug 2018	5	7
-2.24%	Oct 2016	Nov 2016	2	Jan 2017	2	4
-0.94%	Jun 2017	Jun 2017	1	Jul 2017	1	2
-0.30%	Mar 2017	Mar 2017	1	Apr 2017	1	2
-0.29%	Sep 2019	Sep 2019	1	Oct 2019	1	2
-0.18%	Jun 2021	Jun 2021	1	Jul 2021	1	2
-0.07%	Jul 2019	Jul 2019	1	Aug 2019	1	2

Worst drawdowns since October 2013 - Chart and Data

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	Drawdown period			Recovery period		Total
Drawdown	Start	Bottom	#Months	End	#Months	#Months
-8.01%	Feb 2020	Mar 2020	2	Jun 2020	3	5
-7.05%	Sep 2018	Dec 2018	4	Apr 2019	4	8
-6.19%	Feb 2015	Sep 2015	8	Mar 2016	6	14
-5.74%	Dec 2013	Dec 2013	1	Jun 2014	6	7
-3.49%	Sep 2014	Sep 2014	1	Dec 2014	3	4
-3.29%	Sep 2017	Sep 2017	1	Nov 2017	2	3
-2.94%	Aug 2016	Nov 2016	4	Feb 2017	3	7
-2.77%	Sep 2020	Sep 2020	1	Nov 2020	2	3
-2.61%	Sep 2021	Sep 2021	1	in progress		1
-2.48%	Feb 2018	Mar 2018	2	Aug 2018	5	7
-2.03%	Jul 2014	Jul 2014	1	Aug 2014	1	2
-0.94%	Jun 2017	Jun 2017	1	Jul 2017	1	2
-0.51%	May 2016	May 2016	1	Jun 2016	1	2
-0.30%	Mar 2017	Mar 2017	1	Apr 2017	1	2
-0.29%	Sep 2019	Sep 2019	1	Oct 2019	1	2
-0.18%	Jun 2021	Jun 2021	1	Jul 2021	1	2
-0.07%	Jul 2019	Jul 2019	1	Aug 2019	1	2

Rolling Returns ( more details)

Golden Butterfly with Bitcoin Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns

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	*Return ()**			Negative Periods
Rolling Period	Average	Best	Worst	Negative Periods
1 Year	+12.78%	+41.85% Jan 2017 - Dec 2017	-5.63% Jan 2018 - Dec 2018	9.41%
2 Years	+12.50%	+27.18% Feb 2016 - Jan 2018	-0.04% Dec 2013 - Nov 2015	1.37%
3 Years	+13.02%	+17.91% Sep 2015 - Aug 2018	+3.24% Dec 2013 - Nov 2016	0.00%
5 Years	+13.04%	+16.75% Feb 2016 - Jan 2021	+8.89% Dec 2013 - Nov 2018	0.00%
7 Years	+12.28%	+12.77% Aug 2014 - Jul 2021	+10.63% Dec 2013 - Nov 2020	0.00%

* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Golden Butterfly with Bitcoin Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality and Yearly/Monthly Returns

Golden Butterfly with Bitcoin Portfolio Seasonality: in which months is it better to invest?

In the table below, the average monthly return is represented.

Below each return, it's also mentioned the probability of obtaining a positive monthly result (Win %).

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.

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	Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%)	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Average Win %	1.25 88%	0.74 63%	-0.27 38%	1.69 88%	1.38 88%	1.44 50%	0.93 63%	1.77 75%	-1.84 13%	0.72 75%	4.23 75%	0.78 63%
Best Year	4.8 2019	3.6 2016	2.9 2016	6.6 2020	5.6 2017	6.4 2019	5.5 2020	9.7 2017	0.3 2016	3.4 2015	14.9 2013	6.9 2017
Worst Year	-0.7 2016	-2.4 2018	-5.9 2020	-1.1 2015	-0.5 2016	-1.5 2015	-2.0 2014	-1.9 2015	-3.5 2014	-4.1 2018	-0.3 2015	-5.7 2013

Statistics calculated for the period Oct 2013 - Sep 2021

For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.

Monthly Returns of Golden Butterfly with Bitcoin Portfolio

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		Months
Year	Return	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
2021	+5.22%	0.1	1.3	1.3	2.3	1.3	-0.2	0.7	1.2	-2.6
2020	+19.25%	1.9	-2.2	-5.9	6.6	1.7	1.3	5.5	1.0	-2.8	0.3	6.2	5.2
2019	+19.80%	4.8	1.5	0.5	2.1	0.2	6.4	-0.1	1.3	-0.3	1.3	0.0	0.6
2018	-5.63%	0.6	-2.4	-0.1	0.3	1.7	-0.5	0.7	1.3	-1.5	-4.1	0.9	-2.5
2017	+41.85%	1.1	2.0	-0.3	1.3	5.6	-0.9	1.3	9.7	-3.3	2.2	10.9	6.9
2016	+12.52%	-0.7	3.6	2.9	1.9	-0.5	4.7	1.8	-1.0	0.3	-2.2	-0.1	1.4
2015	-2.62%	1.5	-0.2	-0.2	-1.1	0.1	-1.5	-0.5	-1.9	-1.1	3.4	-0.3	-0.8
2014	+8.01%	0.8	2.4	-0.4	0.0	1.1	2.3	-2.0	2.7	-3.5	2.0	1.3	1.2

* Note:
Portofolio Returns, up to May 2015, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.

In particular, it has been used:

GBTC - Grayscale Bitcoin Trust: simulated historical serie, up to May 2015