Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio vs Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio Portfolio Comparison

Simulation Settings

Period: January 1976 - June 2026 (~51 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 June 2026

Initial Amount: 1$

Rebalancing: at every Jan 1^st

Currency: USD

Inflation: US

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Results

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As of June 2026, in the previous 30 Years, the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio obtained a 8.82% compound annual return, with a 15.90% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -57.21% that required 63 months to be recovered.

As of June 2026, in the previous 30 Years, the Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio obtained a 8.69% compound annual return, with a 14.05% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -48.52% that required 59 months to be recovered.

Disclaimer: The simulations on this website are provided in good faith but should NOT be taken as investment advice. We are not liable for any errors or actions based on this information. The authors of the website are not affiliated with the portfolio creators, who are the sole owners of their intellectual property. The translation of asset allocations into ETFs is based on the interpretation of LazyPortfolioETF.com and may not exactly reflect the original intent of the portfolio creators. Content is for informational, educational, illustrative, and entertainment purposes only.

Asset Allocations and ETFs

The compared portfolios have the following asset allocations.

Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio

Weight (%)	Ticker	Name
10.00	DLS	WisdomTree International SmallCp Div
10.00	EEM	iShares MSCI Emerging Markets
10.00	IJR	iShares Core S&P Small-Cap
10.00	IJS	iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value
10.00	SPY	SPDR S&P 500
10.00	VTV	Vanguard Value
10.00	VEA	Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets
10.00	SCZ	iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap
10.00	EFV	iShares MSCI EAFE Value
10.00	VNQ	Vanguard Real Estate

Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio

Weight (%)	Ticker	Name
60.00	VTI	Vanguard Total Stock Market
30.00	VEU	Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US
10.00	BND	Vanguard Total Bond Market

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Portfolio Returns as of Jun 30, 2026

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:

no fees or capital gain taxes.
rebalancing: at every Jan 1^st.
dividend reinvestment, when applicable.

Return Comparison

Capital Growth

Inflation Adj:

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		Return (%) as of Jun 30, 2026
		YTD (6M)	1M	6M	1Y	5Y	10Y	30Y	MAX (~51Y)
	Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Paul Merriman	14.50	0.98	14.50	26.96	8.81	10.47	8.82	11.89
	Second Grader's Starter Paul Farrell	11.06	-0.16	11.06	22.70	10.25	12.33	8.69	10.86
Returns over 1 year are annualized.

Readings that may interest you

Portfolio Metrics as of Jun 30, 2026

The following metrics, updated as of 30 June 2026, provide an overview of performance and risk, with the best value in each row highlighted within the table.

METRIC COMPARISON

10Y

30Y

MAX

Period: ()

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	Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy	Second Grader's Starter
Author	Paul Merriman	Paul Farrell
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks	100%	90%
Fixed Income	0%	10%
Commodities	0%	0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%)	26.96	22.70
Infl. Adjusted (%)	22.21	18.12
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)	-6.55	-5.67
Start to Recovery (months)	2	2
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)	-6.55	-5.67
Start to Recovery (months)	2	2
Longest Negative Period (months)	2	5
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%)	11.76	10.90
Sharpe Ratio	1.97	1.73
Sortino Ratio	2.55	2.38
Ulcer Index	1.82	1.57
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation	2.29	2.08
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown	4.11	4.00
Metrics calculated over the period 1 July 2025 - 30 June 2026

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	Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy	Second Grader's Starter
Author	Paul Merriman	Paul Farrell
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks	100%	90%
Fixed Income	0%	10%
Commodities	0%	0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%)	8.81	10.25
Infl. Adjusted (%)	4.32	5.71
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)	-24.70	-24.21
Start to Recovery (months)	27	26
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)	-24.70	-24.21
Start to Recovery (months)	27	26
Longest Negative Period (months)	32	29
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%)	15.17	13.88
Sharpe Ratio	0.35	0.49
Sortino Ratio	0.48	0.65
Ulcer Index	8.00	8.12
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation	0.58	0.74
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown	0.36	0.42
Metrics calculated over the period 1 July 2021 - 30 June 2026

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	Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy	Second Grader's Starter
Author	Paul Merriman	Paul Farrell
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks	100%	90%
Fixed Income	0%	10%
Commodities	0%	0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%)	10.47	12.33
Infl. Adjusted (%)	6.89	8.69
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)	-27.54	-24.21
Start to Recovery (months)	11	26
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)	-24.70	-24.21
Start to Recovery (months)	27	26
Longest Negative Period (months)	44	31
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%)	15.43	13.55
Sharpe Ratio	0.54	0.75
Sortino Ratio	0.70	0.98
Ulcer Index	7.56	6.47
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation	0.68	0.91
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown	0.38	0.51
Metrics calculated over the period 1 July 2016 - 30 June 2026

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	Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy	Second Grader's Starter
Author	Paul Merriman	Paul Farrell
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks	100%	90%
Fixed Income	0%	10%
Commodities	0%	0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%)	8.82	8.69
Infl. Adjusted (%)	6.11	5.98
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)	-57.21	-48.52
Start to Recovery (months)	63	59
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)	-57.21	-39.03
Start to Recovery (months)	63	64
Longest Negative Period (months)	68	131
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%)	15.90	14.05
Sharpe Ratio	0.42	0.46
Sortino Ratio	0.54	0.60
Ulcer Index	12.16	12.78
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation	0.56	0.62
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown	0.15	0.18
Metrics calculated over the period 1 July 1996 - 30 June 2026

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	Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy	Second Grader's Starter
Author	Paul Merriman	Paul Farrell
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks	100%	90%
Fixed Income	0%	10%
Commodities	0%	0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%)	11.89	10.86
Infl. Adjusted (%)	7.98	6.99
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)	-57.21	-48.52
Start to Recovery (months)	63	59
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)	-57.21	-39.03
Start to Recovery (months)	63	64
Longest Negative Period (months)	68	131
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%)	15.25	13.58
Sharpe Ratio	0.50	0.49
Sortino Ratio	0.66	0.65
Ulcer Index	10.04	10.36
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation	0.78	0.80
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown	0.21	0.22
Metrics calculated over the period 1 January 1976 - 30 June 2026

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

DRAWDOWN COMPARISON

Inflation Adj:

Rolling Returns

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the Simulation Settings.

You can explore the Rolling Returns for a single portfolio, or check the return differential, by switching on "Head To Head" toggle.

Rolling Returns Comparison

Annualized Rolling Returns Chart

Time to Target

What it shows: Months to reach your target capital from each historical entry point, accounting for your initial investment and periodic contributions.

Time to Target Comparison

Time to reach your Target Capital

Yearly Returns

For each year, the following table provides the return and intra-year drawdown. The highlighted returns represent the highest values for that specific year.

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	Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy		Second Grader's Starter
Year	Return (%)	Drawdown (%)	Return (%)	Drawdown (%)
2026	14.50	-6.55	11.06	-5.67
2025	22.62	-1.54	20.67	-3.62
2024	8.12	-4.57	16.09	-3.63
2023	15.12	-11.49	20.93	-9.14
2022	-15.37	-24.70	-17.70	-24.21
2021	19.37	-3.67	17.70	-3.84
2020	6.40	-27.54	16.72	-19.32
2019	23.62	-6.09	25.83	-5.44
2018	-11.86	-15.11	-7.40	-11.99
2017	21.78	-0.19	21.30	0.00
2016	12.36	-6.13	9.42	-5.60
2015	-1.21	-10.45	-1.16	-9.62
2014	3.86	-4.78	6.75	-3.49
2013	24.33	-3.16	24.11	-2.56
2012	18.52	-9.57	15.86	-7.88
2011	-6.03	-21.49	-2.83	-17.88
2010	17.95	-12.96	14.62	-11.38
2009	32.93	-22.58	28.98	-17.20
2008	-39.47	-43.68	-34.54	-37.04
2007	3.86	-8.69	8.57	-5.03
2006	25.26	-4.59	17.83	-3.36
2005	14.55	-4.36	8.70	-3.82
2004	24.50	-4.95	14.35	-3.09
2003	45.35	-4.40	30.95	-4.37
2002	-8.70	-19.82	-15.98	-22.25
2001	-4.24	-16.27	-11.78	-21.62
2000	-0.62	-8.65	-9.89	-14.07
1999	20.93	-3.33	23.19	-3.08
1998	4.55	-20.46	19.50	-14.32
1997	7.53	-6.22	19.31	-4.84
1996	14.79	-4.92	14.34	-4.50
1995	16.47	-2.82	24.48	-1.28
1994	-2.37	-7.70	2.56	-5.09
1993	30.62	-3.22	16.32	-4.22
1992	7.12	-3.87	1.74	-4.65
1991	32.16	-5.51	23.80	-4.67
1990	-15.66	-21.87	-10.22	-16.95
1989	27.73	-3.75	22.09	-2.57
1988	25.20	-2.71	18.82	-3.47
1987	6.29	-25.26	10.87	-21.75
1986	33.82	-4.97	29.27	-5.18
1985	40.18	-2.65	36.18	-2.85
1984	7.34	-6.12	3.66	-8.18
1983	26.91	-2.38	21.23	-3.07
1982	9.42	-16.41	14.99	-12.58
1981	-0.23	-10.99	-2.74	-11.40
1980	24.58	-12.52	27.18	-10.99
1979	19.34	-9.15	17.88	-7.18
1978	21.17	-9.46	14.57	-8.59
1977	13.48	-1.92	2.89	-4.35
1976	22.54	-3.46	17.93	-2.79

Table of contents

Asset Allocations and ETFs

Portfolio Returns as of Jun 30, 2026

Portfolio Metrics as of Jun 30, 2026

Drawdowns

Rolling Returns

Time to Target

Yearly Returns