Data Source: from January 1992 to June 2022
Consolidated Returns as of 30 June 2022
Live Update: Jul 05 2022, 02:00PM Eastern Time
PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
2.20%
1 Day
Jul 05 2022, 02:00PM Eastern Time
1.61%
Current Month
July 2022

The Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio is a Very High Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 10 ETFs.

It's exposed for 100% on the Stock Market.

In the last 30 Years, the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio obtained a 8.68% compound annual return, with a 15.23% standard deviation.

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

100% Stocks
0% Fixed Income
0% Commodities

The Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight Ticker ETF Name Investment Themes
10.00 % SPY SPDR S&P 500 Equity, U.S., Large Cap
10.00 % IJR iShares Core S&P Small-Cap Equity, U.S., Small Cap
10.00 % DLS WisdomTree International SmallCp Div Equity, Developed Markets, Small Cap, Value
10.00 % IJS iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value Equity, U.S., Small Cap, Value
10.00 % EEM iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Equity, Emerging Markets, Large Cap
10.00 % VTV Vanguard Value Equity, U.S., Large Cap, Value
10.00 % VEA Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Equity, EAFE, Large Cap
10.00 % SCZ iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap Equity, EAFE, Small Cap
10.00 % EFV iShares MSCI EAFE Value Equity, EAFE, Large Cap, Value
10.00 % VNQ Vanguard Real Estate Real Estate, U.S.
Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns

The Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

According to the available data source, let's assume we built the portfolio on January 1992.

Portfolio returns are calculated in USD, assuming: July 2022 return is calculated on the hypothesis of a newly built portfolio, with the starting asset allocation.
PAUL MERRIMAN ULTIMATE BUY AND HOLD STRATEGY PORTFOLIO RETURNS
Consolidated returns as of 30 June 2022
Live Update: Jul 05 2022, 02:00PM Eastern Time
Swipe left to see all data
  Chg (%) Return (%)
Return (%) as of Jun 30, 2022
  1 Day Time ET(*) Jul 2022 1M 6M 1Y 5Y(*) 10Y(*) 30Y(*)
Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio -2.20 -1.61 -8.32 -17.27 -14.70 4.84 8.29 8.68
US Inflation Adjusted return -8.32 -20.49 -20.70 1.19 5.69 6.06
Components
SPY
SPDR S&P 500
-0.99 02:00PM
Jul 05 2022
0.06 -8.25 -19.98 -10.61 11.23 12.86 9.74
IJR
iShares Core S&P Small-Cap
-1.20 01:59PM
Jul 05 2022
-0.27 -8.48 -18.93 -16.91 7.20 11.24 10.52
DLS
WisdomTree International SmallCp Div
-2.73 01:59PM
Jul 05 2022
-2.49 -7.84 -18.35 -18.26 -0.02 6.32 6.96
IJS
iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value
-1.71 02:00PM
Jul 05 2022
-0.63 -8.96 -14.31 -14.23 6.57 10.79 11.03
EEM
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets
-1.73 02:00PM
Jul 05 2022
-2.34 -5.14 -17.20 -25.55 1.56 2.33 6.09
VTV
Vanguard Value
-2.33 01:59PM
Jul 05 2022
-1.35 -7.89 -9.29 -1.75 9.23 11.77 9.47
VEA
Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets
-3.03 01:59PM
Jul 05 2022
-2.82 -9.19 -18.92 -18.07 2.71 5.87 5.27
SCZ
iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap
-2.84 01:59PM
Jul 05 2022
-2.89 -10.25 -23.88 -23.44 1.65 7.08 7.02
EFV
iShares MSCI EAFE Value
-3.82 01:59PM
Jul 05 2022
-3.51 -9.59 -11.33 -11.79 0.42 4.05 5.30
VNQ
Vanguard Real Estate
-1.65 01:59PM
Jul 05 2022
0.12 -7.46 -20.54 -8.02 5.69 7.49 9.57
(*) Returns over 1 year are annualized
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)

US Inflation is updated to May 2022. Waiting for updates, inflation of Jun 2022 is set to 0%. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 7.57% , 5Y: 3.61% , 10Y: 2.46% , 30Y: 2.47%

Portfolio Dividends

In 2021, the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio granted a 2.79% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Historical Returns as of Jun 30, 2022

Historical returns and stats of Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio. Total Returns and Inflation Adjusted Returns are both mentioned.

PAUL MERRIMAN ULTIMATE BUY AND HOLD STRATEGY PORTFOLIO
Consolidated returns as of 30 June 2022
Data Source: from January 1992 to June 2022
Swipe left to see all data
Period Return (%)
as of Jun 2022
Return (%)
Infl.Adj.
Standard
Deviation (%)
Max
Drawdown (%)
Months
Pos - Neg
1M
Jun 2022
-8.32
-8.32
-8.32
Jun 2022 - Jun 2022
0 - 1
3M
-13.25
-14.37
-13.25
Apr 2022 - Jun 2022
1 - 2
6M
-17.27
-20.49
-17.27
Jan 2022 - Jun 2022
2 - 4
YTD
-17.27
-20.49
-17.27
Jan 2022 - Jun 2022
2 - 4
1Y
-14.70
-20.70
13.41
-17.27
Jan 2022 - Jun 2022
5 - 7
42% pos
3Y(*)
4.55
0.04
18.86
-27.54
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
21 - 15
58% pos
5Y(*)
4.84
1.19
16.86
-27.54
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
37 - 23
62% pos
10Y(*)
8.29
5.69
13.80
-27.54
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
79 - 41
66% pos
15Y(*)
4.81
2.45
17.71
-57.21
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
110 - 70
61% pos
20Y(*)
8.38
5.79
16.56
-57.21
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
154 - 86
64% pos
25Y(*)
7.48
4.94
16.20
-57.21
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
185 - 115
62% pos
30Y(*)
8.68
6.06
15.23
-57.21
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
231 - 129
64% pos
MAX(*)
01 Jan 1992
8.57
5.95
15.15
-57.21
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
235 - 131
64% pos
(*) Returns over 1 year are annualized

Returns and stats are calculated assuming a yearly rebalancing of the components weight. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?

Capital Growth as of Jun 30, 2022

An investment of 1000$, since July 1992, now would be worth 12142.05$, with a total return of 1114.20% (8.68% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 5836.20$, with a net total return of 483.62% (6.06% annualized).
An investment of 1000$, since January 1992, now would be worth 12286.63$, with a total return of 1128.66% (8.57% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 5825.61$, with a net total return of 482.56% (5.95% annualized).

Drawdowns

Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months
-57.21% Nov 2007 Feb 2009 16 Jan 2013 47 63
-27.54% Jan 2020 Mar 2020 3 Nov 2020 8 11
-20.46% Apr 1998 Aug 1998 5 Apr 1999 8 13
-20.10% Feb 2001 Sep 2002 20 Jul 2003 10 30
-17.27% Jan 2022 Jun 2022 6 in progress 6
-15.11% Feb 2018 Dec 2018 11 Nov 2019 11 22
-12.10% Jun 2015 Feb 2016 9 Jul 2016 5 14
-8.65% Sep 2000 Nov 2000 3 Jan 2001 2 5
-8.25% Feb 1994 Jan 1995 12 Jun 1995 5 17
-6.22% Oct 1997 Nov 1997 2 Feb 1998 3 5
-4.95% Apr 2004 Apr 2004 1 Sep 2004 5 6
-4.92% Jun 1996 Jul 1996 2 Nov 1996 4 6
-4.78% Sep 2014 Sep 2014 1 Feb 2015 5 6
-4.60% Jun 2007 Jul 2007 2 Oct 2007 3 5
-4.59% May 2006 May 2006 1 Oct 2006 5 6
-4.36% Mar 2005 Apr 2005 2 Jun 2005 2 4
-4.24% Aug 1997 Aug 1997 1 Sep 1997 1 2
-4.03% Apr 2000 May 2000 2 Jun 2000 1 3
-3.67% Jan 2000 Jan 2000 1 Mar 2000 2 3
-3.67% Nov 2021 Nov 2021 1 Dec 2021 1 2
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months
-57.21% Nov 2007 Feb 2009 16 Jan 2013 47 63
-27.54% Jan 2020 Mar 2020 3 Nov 2020 8 11
-20.46% Apr 1998 Aug 1998 5 Apr 1999 8 13
-20.10% Feb 2001 Sep 2002 20 Jul 2003 10 30
-17.27% Jan 2022 Jun 2022 6 in progress 6
-15.11% Feb 2018 Dec 2018 11 Nov 2019 11 22
-12.10% Jun 2015 Feb 2016 9 Jul 2016 5 14
-8.65% Sep 2000 Nov 2000 3 Jan 2001 2 5
-8.25% Feb 1994 Jan 1995 12 Jun 1995 5 17
-6.22% Oct 1997 Nov 1997 2 Feb 1998 3 5
-4.95% Apr 2004 Apr 2004 1 Sep 2004 5 6
-4.92% Jun 1996 Jul 1996 2 Nov 1996 4 6
-4.78% Sep 2014 Sep 2014 1 Feb 2015 5 6
-4.60% Jun 2007 Jul 2007 2 Oct 2007 3 5
-4.59% May 2006 May 2006 1 Oct 2006 5 6
-4.36% Mar 2005 Apr 2005 2 Jun 2005 2 4
-4.24% Aug 1997 Aug 1997 1 Sep 1997 1 2
-4.03% Apr 2000 May 2000 2 Jun 2000 1 3
-3.87% Jun 1992 Jun 1992 1 Dec 1992 6 7
-3.67% Jan 2000 Jan 2000 1 Mar 2000 2 3

Rolling Returns ( more details)

Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns

Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Return (*) Negative
Periods
Average (%) Best (%) Worst (%)
1 Year
10.67 68.65
Mar 2009 - Feb 2010
-49.19
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
25.92%
2 Years
9.61 45.51
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011
-30.72
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
15.16%
3 Years
9.05 33.96
Apr 2003 - Mar 2006
-17.09
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009
12.39%
5 Years
8.90 24.86
Nov 2002 - Oct 2007
-3.83
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009
6.19%
7 Years
8.64 15.25
Mar 2009 - Feb 2016
2.03
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
0.00%
10 Years
8.63 14.47
Mar 2009 - Feb 2019
3.22
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
0.00%
15 Years
8.48 13.00
Nov 1992 - Oct 2007
4.42
Mar 1994 - Feb 2009
0.00%
20 Years
8.61 9.96
Nov 2001 - Oct 2021
6.29
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
0.00%
(*) Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio: in which months is it better to invest?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.

For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Win %
0.33
55%
0.23
61%
1.12
71%
2.34
77%
0.56
71%
0.01
45%
0.92
57%
-0.20
57%
-0.14
60%
0.69
67%
1.18
70%
2.38
80%
Best
Year
9.0
2019
7.3
1998
9.0
2009
15.4
2009
9.2
2009
5.5
2019
9.5
2009
5.0
2009
9.6
2010
11.4
2011
13.3
2020
8.2
2010
Worst
Year
-12.4
2009
-11.7
2009
-18.3
2020
-6.3
2022
-9.3
2010
-9.1
2008
-9.2
2002
-14.7
1998
-11.0
2001
-21.9
2008
-10.1
2008
-8.0
2018
Statistics calculated for the period Jan 1992 - Jun 2022

Monthly/Yearly Returns

Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio monthly and yearly returns: how is the distribution of the returns recorded so far?

MONTHLY RETURNS HISTOGRAM
235 Positive Months (64%) - 131 Negative Months (36%)
Jan 1992 - Jun 2022
Swipe left to see all data
Yearly Return(%)
Monthly Return(%)
Year Total Infl.Adj Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2022
-17.27 -20.49 -3.8 -1.9 1.1 -6.3 0.9 -8.3
2021
+19.37 +11.46 1.1 4.5 3.7 3.3 2.4 -0.2 -0.2 2.0 -3.5 3.7 -3.7 5.1
2020
+6.40 +5.06 -3.3 -8.3 -18.3 9.6 4.4 2.7 3.6 4.8 -2.5 -1.4 13.3 5.7
2019
+23.62 +20.88 9.0 2.2 0.1 2.9 -6.1 5.5 -0.5 -2.4 3.3 2.8 1.8 3.5
2018
-11.86 -13.52 3.8 -4.8 0.0 0.6 0.8 -0.6 2.6 0.5 -0.7 -7.8 1.8 -8.0
2017
+21.78 +19.24 2.2 2.1 1.1 1.7 1.2 1.4 2.6 -0.2 3.1 1.4 1.8 1.5
2016
+12.36 +10.10 -5.4 -0.7 8.6 1.1 0.5 -0.1 4.6 0.3 1.1 -2.5 2.4 2.6
2015
-1.21 -1.84 -0.9 5.0 -0.5 1.7 0.2 -2.1 0.3 -6.1 -2.8 6.4 0.2 -1.9
2014
+3.86 +3.19 -3.4 5.0 0.8 0.4 1.5 2.0 -2.1 2.2 -4.8 2.9 0.2 -0.6
2013
+24.33 +22.48 4.3 0.3 2.4 3.1 -1.1 -2.1 5.1 -2.6 6.2 3.8 1.2 1.7
2012
+18.52 +16.47 6.7 3.5 1.6 -1.2 -8.5 5.2 0.1 2.8 2.7 -0.3 1.2 4.1
2011
-6.03 -8.82 1.2 3.3 0.3 4.1 -1.8 -1.7 -2.0 -7.3 -10.5 11.4 -1.4 -0.1
2010
+17.95 +16.28 -3.9 2.2 7.3 2.0 -9.3 -4.0 9.0 -4.4 9.6 4.0 -1.8 8.2
2009
+32.93 +29.29 -12.4 -11.7 9.0 15.4 9.2 -0.4 9.5 5.0 5.1 -3.4 4.3 3.1
2008
-39.47 -39.45 -6.1 -1.7 0.7 4.7 1.7 -9.1 -1.5 -0.3 -9.0 -21.9 -10.1 7.5
2007
+3.86 -0.23 2.2 -0.8 2.2 3.2 2.9 -1.5 -3.1 0.3 3.9 4.0 -6.3 -2.5
2006
+25.26 +22.17 7.1 -0.1 3.7 2.5 -4.6 0.2 0.4 2.4 1.1 4.7 3.6 2.2
2005
+14.55 +10.84 -1.6 4.2 -2.5 -1.9 2.1 2.5 4.9 0.6 2.5 -3.1 3.5 2.8
2004
+24.50 +20.47 3.1 2.5 1.7 -4.9 1.4 3.5 -3.2 1.6 2.9 2.8 7.3 3.9
2003
+45.35 +42.45 -2.2 -1.7 -0.6 8.8 7.6 3.3 4.0 3.7 1.6 6.5 2.0 5.5
2002
-8.70 -10.91 -0.7 0.9 5.7 0.9 1.1 -3.8 -9.2 0.2 -8.4 2.5 4.9 -2.1
2001
-4.24 -5.75 3.9 -4.6 -5.2 6.9 0.6 -0.4 -2.1 -0.8 -11.0 2.2 5.1 2.5
2000
-0.62 -3.93 -3.7 1.1 3.4 -3.0 -1.0 4.6 -1.1 2.8 -2.4 -2.7 -3.8 5.7
1999
+20.93 +17.78 -0.5 -2.8 4.3 8.7 -1.3 5.1 -0.3 -0.9 -1.1 1.1 1.7 5.8
1998
+4.55 +2.90 1.2 7.3 3.7 -0.3 -2.7 -1.1 -2.9 -14.7 2.2 6.9 4.7 2.1
1997
+7.53 +5.73 0.9 0.6 -2.0 0.3 6.8 4.0 2.8 -4.2 4.6 -5.2 -1.0 0.5
1996
+14.79 +11.04 2.4 0.9 1.6 3.2 1.4 -0.5 -4.4 2.2 2.5 0.2 4.3 0.4
1995
+16.47 +13.59 -1.8 1.0 3.0 2.5 1.8 0.7 4.1 -0.6 1.4 -2.8 2.8 3.5
1994
-2.37 -4.84 4.5 -2.6 -5.1 1.7 0.1 -2.0 2.4 4.1 -2.3 1.0 -4.7 0.9
1993
+30.62 +27.05 3.6 1.6 5.5 0.0 1.6 1.3 2.3 4.7 0.8 3.4 -3.2 5.9
1992
+7.12 +4.04 2.7 0.4 -2.4 1.0 3.5 -3.9 1.9 -1.6 0.2 0.4 3.3 1.8

Portofolio Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.

In particular, it has been used:

  • SPY - SPDR S&P 500: simulated historical serie, up to December 1993
  • IJR - iShares Core S&P Small-Cap: simulated historical serie, up to December 2000
  • DLS - WisdomTree International SmallCp Div: simulated historical serie, up to December 2006
  • IJS - iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value: simulated historical serie, up to December 2000
  • EEM - iShares MSCI Emerging Markets: simulated historical serie, up to December 2003
  • VTV - Vanguard Value: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
  • VEA - Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
  • SCZ - iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
  • EFV - iShares MSCI EAFE Value: simulated historical serie, up to December 2005
  • VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004

Portfolio efficiency

Is the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio actually efficient, compared to other Lazy Portfolios?

Overall Ratings

The Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio is classified as Very High Risk.

Very High Risk
Bond weight:
Less than 25%
High Risk
Bond weight:
25% - 49.99%
Medium Risk
Bond weight:
50% - 74.99%
Low Risk
Bond weight:
At least 75%
Very High Risk
Portfolios
All
Portfolios
25 Years Ann. Return
(Inflation Adjusted)
+7.48%
(+4.94%)
Bad : 1.3 / 5
Good : 3.2 / 5
Standard Deviation
over 25 Years
16.20%
Average : 2.9 / 5
Bad : 1.9 / 5
Maximum Drawdown
over 25 Years
-57.21%
Bad : 1.8 / 5
Bad : 1.2 / 5
Easy to manage 10 ETFs
Poor : 1 / 5
Poor : 1 / 5
Rating assigned considering all the Very High Risk Portfolios Rating assigned considering all the Portfolios in the database

Best Classic Portfolios, with Very High Risk

Swipe left to see all data
30 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Jul 2022 Return Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Technology
+1.22 +13.42 -81.08 100 0 0
US Stocks
+0.21 +9.81 -50.84 100 0 0
Warren Buffett Portfolio
Warren Buffett
+0.23 +9.38 -45.52 90 10 0
Aggressive Global Income
-0.99 +9.37 -52.63 80 20 0
Stocks/Bonds 80/20
+0.38 +9.06 -41.09 80 20 0

See all portfolios

Jul 2022 return refers to period 01-05 July 2022.
Last update: Jul 05 2022, 02:00PM Eastern Time.
Share this page