Last Update: 31 March 2021
The Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio is exposed for 100% on the Stock Market.
It's a Very High Risk portfolio and it can be replicated with 10 ETFs.
In the last 10 years, the portfolio obtained a 8.95% compound annual return, with a 14.70% standard deviation.
In 2020, the portfolio granted a 2.06% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.
Asset Allocation and ETFs
The Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio has the following asset allocation:
The Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio can be replicated with the following ETFs:
| Weight | Ticker | ETF Name | Investment Themes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00 % | IJR | iShares Core S&P Small-Cap | Equity, U.S., Small Cap | |
| 10.00 % | IJS | iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value | Equity, U.S., Small Cap, Value | |
| 10.00 % | DLS | WisdomTree International SmallCp Div | Equity, Developed Markets, Small Cap, Value | |
| 10.00 % | SPY | SPDR S&P 500 | Equity, U.S., Large Cap | |
| 10.00 % | EEM | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets | Equity, Emerging Markets, Large Cap | |
| 10.00 % | VTV | Vanguard Value | Equity, U.S., Large Cap, Value | |
| 10.00 % | VEA | Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets | Equity, EAFE, Large Cap | |
| 10.00 % | SCZ | iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap | Equity, EAFE, Small Cap | |
| 10.00 % | EFV | iShares MSCI EAFE Value | Equity, EAFE, Large Cap, Value | |
| 10.00 % | VNQ | Vanguard Real Estate | Real Estate, U.S. |
Portfolio and ETF Returns
The Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y(*) | 5Y(*) | 10Y(*) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio | +3.74 | +9.62 | +29.47 | +60.96 | +8.73 | +11.27 | +8.95 |
| Components | |||||||
| IJR - iShares Core S&P Small-Cap | +3.53 | +18.39 | +55.35 | +95.95 | +13.76 | +15.63 | +12.96 |
| IJS - iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value | +5.61 | +24.32 | +65.15 | +104.15 | +11.88 | +13.92 | +11.91 |
| DLS - WisdomTree International SmallCp Div | +3.74 | +6.39 | +21.80 | +54.38 | +1.42 | +7.61 | +6.72 |
| SPY - SPDR S&P 500 | +4.54 | +6.35 | +19.24 | +56.25 | +16.78 | +16.23 | +13.81 |
| EEM - iShares MSCI Emerging Markets | -0.73 | +3.23 | +22.24 | +58.83 | +5.68 | +11.59 | +3.05 |
| VTV - Vanguard Value | +6.66 | +11.11 | +27.32 | +51.62 | +11.41 | +12.73 | +11.64 |
| VEA - Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets | +2.77 | +4.51 | +21.72 | +50.88 | +6.59 | +9.66 | +5.98 |
| SCZ - iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap | +2.34 | +5.11 | +22.70 | +63.09 | +6.05 | +10.49 | +8.05 |
| EFV - iShares MSCI EAFE Value | +3.51 | +7.99 | +28.05 | +46.58 | +1.57 | +6.46 | +3.46 |
| VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate | +5.15 | +8.79 | +18.88 | +36.73 | +11.00 | +6.13 | +8.91 |
- a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (i.e. at every January 1st)
- the reinvestment of dividends
If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.
Historical Returns
Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio - Historical returns and stats.
| Period | Returns Mar 2021 |
Standard Deviation * |
Max Drawdown |
Months Pos - Neg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1M
|
+3.74%
|
0.00%
|
1 - 0 | |
|
3M
|
+9.62%
|
0.00%
|
3 - 0 | |
|
6M
|
+29.47%
|
-1.37%
Oct 2020 - Oct 2020
|
5 - 1 | |
|
YTD
|
+9.62%
|
0.00%
|
3 - 0 | |
|
1Y
|
+60.96%
|
14.25%
|
-3.88%
Sep 2020 - Oct 2020
|
10 - 2 |
|
3Y
|
+8.73%
annualized
|
19.44%
|
-27.54%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
|
24 - 12 |
|
5Y
|
+11.27%
annualized
|
15.63%
|
-27.54%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
|
43 - 17 |
|
10Y
|
+8.95%
annualized
|
14.70%
|
-27.54%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
|
78 - 42 |
|
MAX
01 Jan 2008
|
+6.64%
annualized
|
18.18%
|
-53.13%
Jan 2008 - Feb 2009
|
100 - 59 |
* Annualized St.Dev. of monthly returns
Best Very High Risk Porftolios, ordered by 10Y annualized return.
| Portfolio | 10Y Return ▾ | Stocks | Bonds | Comm. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology |
+19.92% | 100 | 0 | 0 | Compare | |
| US Stocks |
+13.80% | 100 | 0 | 0 | Compare | |
| Warren Buffett |
+12.75% | 90 | 10 | 0 | Compare | |
| Stocks/Bonds 80/20 |
+11.80% | 80 | 20 | 0 | Compare | |
| Second Grader's Starter Paul Farrell |
+10.29% | 90 | 10 | 0 | Compare |
Capital Growth
Drawdowns
Rolling Returns ( more details)
Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns
| Return (*) | Negative Periods |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rolling Period | Average | Best | Worst | |
| 1 Year |
+8.41% |
+68.65% Mar 2009 - Feb 2010 |
-49.19% Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 |
30.41% |
| 2 Years |
+8.97% |
+45.51% Mar 2009 - Feb 2011 |
-10.93% Jun 2008 - May 2010 |
13.97% |
| 3 Years |
+9.05% |
+28.12% Mar 2009 - Feb 2012 |
-3.05% Apr 2017 - Mar 2020 |
3.23% |
| 5 Years |
+9.33% |
+23.26% Mar 2009 - Feb 2014 |
+0.61% Apr 2015 - Mar 2020 |
0.00% |
| 7 Years |
+9.12% |
+15.25% Mar 2009 - Feb 2016 |
+3.66% Apr 2013 - Mar 2020 |
0.00% |
| 10 Years |
+9.00% |
+14.47% Mar 2009 - Feb 2019 |
+5.56% Apr 2010 - Mar 2020 |
0.00% |
* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods
If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.
Seasonality and Yearly/Monthly Returns
Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio Seasonality
| Months | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Average | -0.5 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 3.5 | -0.6 | -0.3 | 2.4 | -0.6 | 0.1 | -0.4 | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Best |
9.0 2019 |
5.0 2014 |
9.0 2009 |
15.4 2009 |
9.2 2009 |
5.5 2019 |
9.5 2009 |
5.0 2009 |
9.6 2010 |
11.4 2011 |
13.3 2020 |
8.2 2010 |
| Worst |
-12.4 2009 |
-11.7 2009 |
-18.3 2020 |
-1.2 2012 |
-9.3 2010 |
-9.1 2008 |
-2.1 2014 |
-7.3 2011 |
-10.5 2011 |
-21.9 2008 |
-10.1 2008 |
-8.0 2018 |
| Gain Frequency |
50 | 64 | 79 | 92 | 62 | 38 | 69 | 46 | 54 | 54 | 77 | 69 |
Detail of Monthly Returns
| Months | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Return | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| 2021 |
+9.62% | 1.1 | 4.5 | 3.7 | |||||||||
| 2020 |
+6.40% | -3.4 | -8.3 | -18.3 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 4.8 | -2.5 | -1.4 | 13.3 | 5.7 |
| 2019 |
+23.62% | 9.0 | 2.2 | 0.1 | 2.9 | -6.1 | 5.5 | -0.5 | -2.4 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 3.6 |
| 2018 |
-11.86% | 3.8 | -4.8 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.9 | -0.6 | 2.6 | 0.5 | -0.7 | -7.8 | 1.8 | -8.0 |
| 2017 |
+21.78% | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 2.6 | -0.2 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| 2016 |
+12.36% | -5.4 | -0.7 | 8.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | 4.6 | 0.3 | 1.1 | -2.5 | 2.4 | 2.6 |
| 2015 |
-1.21% | -0.9 | 5.0 | -0.5 | 1.7 | 0.2 | -2.1 | 0.3 | -6.1 | -2.8 | 6.4 | 0.2 | -1.9 |
| 2014 |
+3.86% | -3.4 | 5.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | -2.1 | 2.2 | -4.8 | 2.9 | 0.2 | -0.6 |
| 2013 |
+24.33% | 4.3 | 0.3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | -1.1 | -2.1 | 5.1 | -2.6 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| 2012 |
+18.52% | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | -1.2 | -8.5 | 5.2 | 0.1 | 2.8 | 2.7 | -0.3 | 1.2 | 4.1 |
| 2011 |
-6.03% | 1.2 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 4.1 | -1.8 | -1.7 | -2.0 | -7.3 | -10.5 | 11.4 | -1.4 | -0.1 |
| 2010 |
+17.95% | -3.9 | 2.2 | 7.3 | 2.0 | -9.3 | -4.0 | 9.0 | -4.4 | 9.6 | 4.0 | -1.8 | 8.2 |
| 2009 |
+32.93% | -12.4 | -11.7 | 9.0 | 15.4 | 9.2 | -0.4 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 5.2 | -3.5 | 4.3 | 3.1 |
| 2008 |
-39.47% | -6.1 | -1.7 | 0.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | -9.1 | -1.5 | -0.4 | -9.0 | -21.9 | -10.1 | 7.5 |