Last Update: 30 September 2020
The Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio is exposed for 100% on the Stock Market.
It's a Very High Risk portfolio and it can be replicated with 10 ETFs.
In the last 10 years, the portfolio obtained a 8.1% compound annual return, with a 14.22% standard deviation.
In 2019, the portfolio granted a 3.30% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.
Asset Allocation and ETFs
The Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio has the following asset allocation:
The Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio can be replicated with the following ETFs:
| Weight | Ticker | ETF Name | Investment Themes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00 % | DLS | WisdomTree International SmallCp Div | Equity, Developed Markets, Small Cap, Value | |
| 10.00 % | SPY | SPDR S&P 500 | Equity, U.S., Large Cap | |
| 10.00 % | EEM | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets | Equity, Emerging Markets, Large Cap | |
| 10.00 % | IJR | iShares Core S&P Small-Cap | Equity, U.S., Small Cap | |
| 10.00 % | IJS | iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value | Equity, U.S., Small Cap, Value | |
| 10.00 % | VT | Vanguard Total World Stock | Equity, Developed Markets, Large Cap | |
| 10.00 % | VTV | Vanguard Value | Equity, U.S., Large Cap, Value | |
| 10.00 % | SCZ | iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap | Equity, EAFE, Small Cap | |
| 10.00 % | EFV | iShares MSCI EAFE Value | Equity, EAFE, Large Cap, Value | |
| 10.00 % | VNQ | Vanguard Real Estate | Real Estate, U.S. |
Portfolio and ETF Returns
The Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y(*) | 5Y(*) | 10Y(*) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio | -2.66 | +6.08 | +24.93 | -1.54 | +1.52 | +7.48 | +8.10 |
| Components | |||||||
| DLS - WisdomTree International SmallCp Div | -0.35 | +8.24 | +26.75 | -2.64 | -3.69 | +4.96 | +5.92 |
| SPY - SPDR S&P 500 | -3.74 | +9.04 | +31.03 | +15.06 | +12.18 | +14.04 | +13.62 |
| EEM - iShares MSCI Emerging Markets | -1.01 | +10.25 | +29.94 | +10.81 | +1.84 | +8.47 | +1.94 |
| IJR - iShares Core S&P Small-Cap | -4.65 | +3.28 | +26.13 | -8.20 | -0.34 | +7.22 | +10.56 |
| IJS - iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value | -5.18 | +2.19 | +23.62 | -16.76 | -4.57 | +4.83 | +8.70 |
| VT - Vanguard Total World Stock | -2.92 | +8.35 | +29.67 | +10.11 | +6.89 | +10.35 | +8.69 |
| VTV - Vanguard Value | -2.22 | +5.67 | +19.09 | -3.46 | +4.35 | +9.25 | +10.79 |
| SCZ - iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap | -0.20 | +10.01 | +32.92 | +6.23 | +1.13 | +7.14 | +7.40 |
| EFV - iShares MSCI EAFE Value | -3.93 | +0.95 | +14.47 | -12.15 | -6.05 | +0.90 | +1.94 |
| VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate | -2.68 | +1.31 | +15.01 | -12.28 | +2.33 | +5.19 | +8.48 |
- a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (i.e. at every January 1st)
- the reinvestment of dividends
If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.
Historical Returns
Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio - Historical returns and stats.
| Period | Returns Sep 2020 |
Standard Deviation * |
Max Drawdown |
Months Pos - Neg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1M
|
-2.66%
|
-2.66%
Sep 2020 - Sep 2020
|
0 - 1 | |
|
3M
|
+6.08%
|
-2.66%
Sep 2020 - Sep 2020
|
2 - 1 | |
|
6M
|
+24.93%
|
-2.66%
Sep 2020 - Sep 2020
|
5 - 1 | |
|
YTD
|
-9.24%
|
-27.35%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
|
5 - 4 | |
|
1Y
|
-1.54%
|
24.59%
|
-27.35%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
|
8 - 4 |
|
3Y
|
+1.52%
annualized
|
17.95%
|
-27.35%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
|
23 - 13 |
|
5Y
|
+7.48%
annualized
|
15.27%
|
-27.35%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
|
42 - 18 |
|
10Y
|
+8.10%
annualized
|
14.22%
|
-27.35%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
|
79 - 41 |
|
MAX
01 Jan 2009
|
+10.15%
annualized
|
16.50%
|
-27.35%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
|
92 - 49 |
* Annualized St.Dev. of monthly returns
Best Very High Risk Porftolios, ordered by 10Y annualized return.
| Portfolio | 10Y Return ▾ | Stocks | Bonds | Comm. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology |
+20.14% | 100 | 0 | 0 | Compare | |
| US Stocks |
+13.48% | 100 | 0 | 0 | Compare | |
| Warren Buffett |
+12.62% | 90 | 10 | 0 | Compare | |
| Second Grader's Starter Paul Farrell |
+9.82% | 90 | 10 | 0 | Compare | |
| Edge Select Aggressive Merrill Lynch |
+9.41% | 84 | 16 | 0 | Compare |
Capital Growth
Drawdowns
Rolling Returns
Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns
| Return (*) | Negative Periods |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rolling Period | Average | Best | Worst | |
| 1 Year |
+11.13% |
+68.85% Mar 2009 - Feb 2010 |
-19.26% Apr 2019 - Mar 2020 |
25.38% |
| 2 Years |
+10.30% |
+45.66% Mar 2009 - Feb 2011 |
-10.14% Apr 2018 - Mar 2020 |
7.63% |
| 3 Years |
+10.20% |
+28.48% Mar 2009 - Feb 2012 |
-2.71% Apr 2017 - Mar 2020 |
1.89% |
| 5 Years |
+10.03% |
+23.47% Mar 2009 - Feb 2014 |
+0.93% Apr 2015 - Mar 2020 |
0.00% |
| 7 Years |
+10.04% |
+15.54% Mar 2009 - Feb 2016 |
+3.99% Apr 2013 - Mar 2020 |
0.00% |
| 10 Years |
+10.04% |
+14.77% Mar 2009 - Feb 2019 |
+5.87% Apr 2010 - Mar 2020 |
0.00% |
* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods
Seasonality and Yearly/Monthly Returns
Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio Seasonality
| Months | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Average | -0.2 | -0.1 | 1.1 | 3.4 | -0.7 | 0.5 | 2.8 | -0.6 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Best |
9.0 2019 |
5.0 2015 |
9.0 2009 |
15.4 2009 |
8.9 2009 |
5.6 2019 |
9.5 2009 |
4.9 2020 |
9.6 2010 |
11.5 2011 |
4.4 2009 |
8.1 2010 |
| Worst |
-12.0 2009 |
-11.6 2009 |
-18.2 2020 |
-1.1 2012 |
-9.2 2010 |
-4.1 2010 |
-2.1 2014 |
-7.2 2011 |
-10.4 2011 |
-7.8 2018 |
-1.6 2010 |
-8.1 2018 |
| Gain Frequency |
50 | 67 | 75 | 92 | 58 | 50 | 75 | 50 | 58 | 64 | 82 | 64 |
Detail of Monthly Returns
| Months | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Return | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| 2020 |
-9.24% | -3.2 | -8.2 | -18.2 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 4.9 | -2.7 | |||
| 2019 |
+24.04% | 9.0 | 2.2 | 0.2 | 3.0 | -6.2 | 5.6 | -0.3 | -2.4 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 3.5 |
| 2018 |
-11.36% | 3.9 | -4.7 | -0.1 | 0.5 | 1.1 | -0.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | -0.7 | -7.8 | 1.9 | -8.1 |
| 2017 |
+21.58% | 2.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 2.6 | -0.2 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| 2016 |
+12.94% | -5.5 | -0.5 | 8.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 4.6 | 0.3 | 1.0 | -2.5 | 2.7 | 2.6 |
| 2015 |
-1.36% | -1.1 | 5.0 | -0.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | -2.0 | 0.2 | -6.1 | -2.8 | 6.5 | 0.2 | -1.9 |
| 2014 |
+4.83% | -3.3 | 4.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | -2.1 | 2.5 | -4.7 | 3.0 | 0.3 | -0.5 |
| 2013 |
+24.44% | 4.3 | 0.4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | -0.8 | -2.1 | 5.1 | -2.7 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| 2012 |
+18.37% | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 | -1.1 | -8.3 | 5.0 | 0.2 | 2.7 | 2.8 | -0.5 | 1.1 | 4.0 |
| 2011 |
-5.55% | 1.1 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 3.9 | -1.8 | -1.7 | -2.0 | -7.2 | -10.4 | 11.5 | -1.3 | 0.0 |
| 2010 |
+18.42% | -3.9 | 2.4 | 7.4 | 2.2 | -9.2 | -4.1 | 8.8 | -4.4 | 9.6 | 4.0 | -1.6 | 8.1 |
| 2009 |
+33.45% | -12.0 | -11.6 | 9.0 | 15.4 | 8.9 | -0.4 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 5.3 | -3.4 | 4.4 | 3.2 |