Data Source: from January 1995 to December 2021

Last Update: 31 December 2021

The Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio is exposed for 100% on the Stock Market.

It's a Very High Risk portfolio and it can be replicated with 10 ETFs.

In the last 10 years, the portfolio obtained a 11.09% compound annual return, with a 13.76% standard deviation.

In the last 25 years, a 8.74% compound annual return, with a 16.07% standard deviation.

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

100% Stocks
0% Fixed Income
0% Commodities

The Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio can be replicated with the following ETFs:

Weight Ticker ETF Name Investment Themes
10.00 % SPY SPDR S&P 500 Equity, U.S., Large Cap
10.00 % IJR iShares Core S&P Small-Cap Equity, U.S., Small Cap
10.00 % DLS WisdomTree International SmallCp Div Equity, Developed Markets, Small Cap, Value
10.00 % IJS iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value Equity, U.S., Small Cap, Value
10.00 % EEM iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Equity, Emerging Markets, Large Cap
10.00 % VTV Vanguard Value Equity, U.S., Large Cap, Value
10.00 % VEA Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Equity, EAFE, Large Cap
10.00 % SCZ iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap Equity, EAFE, Small Cap
10.00 % EFV iShares MSCI EAFE Value Equity, EAFE, Large Cap, Value
10.00 % VNQ Vanguard Real Estate Real Estate, U.S.
Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns

The Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

PAUL MERRIMAN ULTIMATE BUY AND HOLD STRATEGY PORTFOLIO RETURNS (%)
Last Update: 31 December 2021
Swipe left to see all data
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y(*) 5Y(*) 10Y(*) 20Y(*) 25Y(*)
Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio +5.13 +5.03 +3.11 +19.37 +16.23 +11.00 +11.09 +9.63 +8.74
--- Inflation Adjusted return +4.63 +2.76 -0.28 +11.43 +12.26 +7.85 +8.79 +7.15 +6.31
Components
SPY
SPDR S&P 500 		+4.63 +11.07 +11.71 +28.74 +25.99 +18.36 +16.45 +9.46 +9.67
IJR
iShares Core S&P Small-Cap 		+4.50 +5.57 +2.49 +26.60 +20.05 +12.37 +14.47 +10.68 +10.37
DLS
WisdomTree International SmallCp Div 		+5.39 +0.07 +0.12 +11.70 +10.44 +7.56 +8.95 +10.52 +7.85
IJS
iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value 		+4.12 +4.30 +0.09 +30.53 +18.47 +10.04 +13.33 +9.82 +10.48
EEM
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets 		+1.53 -1.57 -10.09 -3.61 +10.06 +9.16 +4.73 +8.87 +5.94
VTV
Vanguard Value 		+6.95 +9.34 +8.31 +26.51 +17.58 +12.48 +13.74 +8.48 +8.66
VEA
Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets 		+4.34 +2.70 +1.04 +11.67 +14.54 +10.12 +8.44 +6.66 +5.54
SCZ
iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap 		+3.71 +0.24 +0.58 +10.14 +15.32 +10.89 +10.65 +11.00 +8.23
EFV
iShares MSCI EAFE Value 		+5.23 +1.26 -0.52 +10.87 +7.59 +5.21 +5.57 +6.09 +5.22
VNQ
Vanguard Real Estate 		+9.69 +15.03 +15.74 +40.52 +19.96 +11.22 +11.50 +10.89 +9.94
(*) annualized
Portfolio returns are calculated assuming:
  • a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (i.e. at every January 1st)
  • the reinvestment of dividends

Inflation is updated to Dec 2021. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 7.12% , 3Y: 3.53% , 5Y: 2.92% , 10Y: 2.12% , 20Y: 2.31% , 25Y: 2.29%

In 2021, the portfolio granted a 2.79% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

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Historical Returns

Historical returns and stats of Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio. Total Returns and Inflation Adjusted Returns are both mentioned.

PAUL MERRIMAN ULTIMATE BUY AND HOLD STRATEGY PORTFOLIO
Last Update: 31 December 2021
Swipe left to see all data
Period Return
Dec 2021
update		 Return
Inflation
Adjusted		 Standard
Deviation(*)		 Max
Drawdown		 Months
Pos - Neg
1M
Dec 2021
+5.13%
+4.63%
0.00%
1 - 0
3M
+5.03%
+2.76%
-3.67%
Nov 2021 - Nov 2021
2 - 1
6M
+3.11%
-0.28%
-3.67%
Nov 2021 - Nov 2021
3 - 3
YTD
+19.37%
+11.43%
9.71%
-3.67%
Nov 2021 - Nov 2021
8 - 4
67% pos
1Y
+19.37%
+11.43%
9.71%
-3.67%
Nov 2021 - Nov 2021
8 - 4
67% pos
3Y
+16.23%
annualized
+12.26%
annualized
18.60%
-27.54%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
24 - 12
67% pos
5Y
+11.00%
annualized
+7.85%
annualized
15.92%
-27.54%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
41 - 19
68% pos
10Y
+11.09%
annualized
+8.79%
annualized
13.76%
-27.54%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
81 - 39
68% pos
20Y
+9.63%
annualized
+7.15%
annualized
16.39%
-57.21%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
156 - 84
65% pos
25Y
+8.74%
annualized
+6.31%
annualized
16.07%
-57.21%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
188 - 112
63% pos
MAX
01 Jan 1995
+9.24%
annualized
+6.74%
annualized
15.59%
-57.21%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
207 - 117
64% pos
(*)Annualized St.Dev. of monthly returns

Portfolio efficiency

Is the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio actually efficient, compared to other Lazy Portfolios?

Best Classic Portfolios, with Very High Risk, ordered by 25 Years annualized return.

25 Years Stats
% Allocation
Portfolio Return▾ Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm.
Technology
 +13.30% -81.08% 100 0 0 Compare
US Stocks
 +9.88% -50.84% 100 0 0 Compare
Warren Buffett Portfolio
Warren Buffett		 +9.38% -45.53% 90 10 0 Compare
Aggressive Global Income
 +9.25% -52.62% 80 20 0 Compare
Stocks/Bonds 80/20
 +9.17% -41.09% 80 20 0 Compare

See all portfolios

Our overall ratings, assigned to the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio. The portfolio is classified as Very High Risk.

Very High Risk
Bond weight:
Less than 25%
High Risk
Bond weight:
25% - 49.99%
Medium Risk
Bond weight:
50% - 74.99%
Low Risk
Bond weight:
At least 75%
Very High Risk
Portfolios		 All
Portfolios
25 Years Ann. Return
(Inflation Adjusted)		 +8.74%
(+6.31%)
Good : 3.1 / 5
Excellent : 4.1 / 5
Standard Deviation
over 25 Years		 16.07%
Average : 3 / 5
Bad : 1.9 / 5
Maximum Drawdown
over 25 Years		 -57.21%
Bad : 1.8 / 5
Bad : 1.2 / 5
Easy to manage 10 ETFs
Poor : 1 / 5
Poor : 1 / 5
Rating assigned considering all the Very High Risk Portfolios Rating assigned considering all the Portfolios in the database

Capital Growth

Time Range:

An investment of 1000$, since January 1997, now would be worth 8132.16$, with a total return of 713.22% (8.74% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 4617.64$, with a net total return of 361.76% (6.31% annualized).

Drawdowns

Time Range:

Worst drawdowns since January 1997 - Chart and Data

Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months
-57.21% Nov 2007 Feb 2009 16 Jan 2013 47 63
-27.54% Jan 2020 Mar 2020 3 Nov 2020 8 11
-20.46% Apr 1998 Aug 1998 5 Apr 1999 8 13
-20.10% Feb 2001 Sep 2002 20 Jul 2003 10 30
-15.11% Feb 2018 Dec 2018 11 Nov 2019 11 22
-12.10% Jun 2015 Feb 2016 9 Jul 2016 5 14
-8.65% Sep 2000 Nov 2000 3 Jan 2001 2 5
-6.22% Oct 1997 Nov 1997 2 Feb 1998 3 5
-4.95% Apr 2004 Apr 2004 1 Sep 2004 5 6
-4.78% Sep 2014 Sep 2014 1 Feb 2015 5 6
-4.60% Jun 2007 Jul 2007 2 Oct 2007 3 5
-4.59% May 2006 May 2006 1 Oct 2006 5 6
-4.36% Mar 2005 Apr 2005 2 Jun 2005 2 4
-4.24% Aug 1997 Aug 1997 1 Sep 1997 1 2
-4.03% Apr 2000 May 2000 2 Jun 2000 1 3
-3.67% Jan 2000 Jan 2000 1 Mar 2000 2 3
-3.67% Nov 2021 Nov 2021 1 Dec 2021 1 2
-3.53% Sep 2021 Sep 2021 1 Oct 2021 1 2
-3.39% Jan 2014 Jan 2014 1 Feb 2014 1 2
-3.16% May 2013 Jun 2013 2 Jul 2013 1 3

Rolling Returns ( more details)

Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns

Swipe left to see all data
Return (*) Negative
Periods
Rolling Period Average Best Worst
1 Year
 +10.64% +68.65%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2010 		-49.19%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 		27.48%
2 Years
 +9.15% +45.51%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011 		-30.72%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 		17.28%
3 Years
 +8.71% +33.96%
Apr 2003 - Mar 2006 		-17.09%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009 		14.19%
5 Years
 +8.60% +24.86%
Nov 2002 - Oct 2007 		-3.83%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009 		7.17%
7 Years
 +8.47% +15.25%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2016 		+2.03%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009 		0.00%
10 Years
 +8.68% +14.47%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2019 		+3.22%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009 		0.00%
15 Years
 +8.30% +11.73%
Feb 2003 - Jan 2018 		+5.31%
Apr 2005 - Mar 2020 		0.00%
20 Years
 +8.44% +9.96%
Nov 2001 - Oct 2021 		+6.29%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 		0.00%

* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio Seasonality: in which months is it better to invest?

In the table below, the average monthly return is represented.

Below each return, it's also mentioned the probability of obtaining a positive monthly result (Win %).

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.

Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Win %		 0.12
52% 		0.35
63% 		1.33
74% 		2.82
81% 		0.41
67% 		0.49
48% 		0.78
52% 		-0.49
56% 		-0.11
59% 		0.60
63% 		1.49
74% 		2.33
78%
Best
Year		 9.0
2019 		7.3
1998 		9.0
2009 		15.4
2009 		9.2
2009 		5.5
2019 		9.5
2009 		5.0
2009 		9.6
2010 		11.4
2011 		13.3
2020 		8.2
2010
Worst
Year		 -12.4
2009 		-11.7
2009 		-18.3
2020 		-4.9
2004 		-9.3
2010 		-9.1
2008 		-9.2
2002 		-14.7
1998 		-11.0
2001 		-21.9
2008 		-10.1
2008 		-8.0
2018
Statistics calculated for the period Jan 1995 - Dec 2021

For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.

Monthly/Yearly Returns

Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio monthly and yearly returns: how is the distribution of the returns recorded so far?

MONTHLY RETURNS HISTOGRAM
207 Positive Months (64%) - 117 Negative Months (36%)
Jan 1995 - Dec 2021
Swipe left to see all data
Yearly Return(%)
Monthly Return(%)
Year Total Infl.Adj Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2021
 +19.37 +11.43 1.1 4.5 3.7 3.3 2.4 -0.2 -0.2 2.0 -3.5 3.7 -3.7 5.1
2020
 +6.40 +5.04 -3.3 -8.3 -18.3 9.6 4.4 2.7 3.6 4.8 -2.5 -1.4 13.3 5.7
2019
 +23.62 +20.88 9.0 2.2 0.1 2.9 -6.1 5.5 -0.5 -2.4 3.3 2.8 1.8 3.5
2018
 -11.86 -13.52 3.8 -4.8 0.0 0.6 0.8 -0.6 2.6 0.5 -0.7 -7.8 1.8 -8.0
2017
 +21.78 +19.27 2.2 2.1 1.1 1.7 1.2 1.4 2.6 -0.2 3.1 1.4 1.8 1.5
2016
 +12.36 +10.10 -5.4 -0.7 8.6 1.1 0.5 -0.1 4.6 0.3 1.1 -2.5 2.4 2.6
2015
 -1.21 -1.84 -0.9 5.0 -0.5 1.7 0.2 -2.1 0.3 -6.1 -2.8 6.4 0.2 -1.9
2014
 +3.86 +3.19 -3.4 5.0 0.8 0.4 1.5 2.0 -2.1 2.2 -4.8 2.9 0.2 -0.6
2013
 +24.33 +22.48 4.3 0.3 2.4 3.1 -1.1 -2.1 5.1 -2.6 6.2 3.8 1.2 1.7
2012
 +18.52 +16.47 6.7 3.5 1.6 -1.2 -8.5 5.2 0.1 2.8 2.7 -0.3 1.2 4.1
2011
 -6.03 -8.82 1.2 3.3 0.3 4.1 -1.8 -1.7 -2.0 -7.3 -10.5 11.4 -1.4 -0.1
2010
 +17.95 +16.28 -3.9 2.2 7.3 2.0 -9.3 -4.0 9.0 -4.4 9.6 4.0 -1.8 8.2
2009
 +32.93 +29.29 -12.4 -11.7 9.0 15.4 9.2 -0.4 9.5 5.0 5.1 -3.4 4.3 3.1
2008
 -39.47 -39.45 -6.1 -1.7 0.7 4.7 1.7 -9.1 -1.5 -0.3 -9.0 -21.9 -10.1 7.5
2007
 +3.86 -0.23 2.2 -0.8 2.2 3.2 2.9 -1.5 -3.1 0.3 3.9 4.0 -6.3 -2.5
2006
 +25.26 +22.17 7.1 -0.1 3.7 2.5 -4.6 0.2 0.4 2.4 1.1 4.7 3.6 2.2
2005
 +14.55 +10.84 -1.6 4.2 -2.5 -1.9 2.1 2.5 4.9 0.6 2.5 -3.1 3.5 2.8
2004
 +24.50 +20.47 3.1 2.5 1.7 -4.9 1.4 3.5 -3.2 1.6 2.9 2.8 7.3 3.9
2003
 +45.35 +42.45 -2.2 -1.7 -0.6 8.8 7.6 3.3 4.0 3.7 1.6 6.5 2.0 5.5
2002
 -8.70 -10.91 -0.7 0.9 5.7 0.9 1.1 -3.8 -9.2 0.2 -8.4 2.5 4.9 -2.1
2001
 -4.24 -5.75 3.9 -4.6 -5.2 6.9 0.6 -0.4 -2.1 -0.8 -11.0 2.2 5.1 2.5
2000
 -0.62 -3.93 -3.7 1.1 3.4 -3.0 -1.0 4.6 -1.1 2.8 -2.4 -2.7 -3.8 5.7
1999
 +20.93 +17.78 -0.5 -2.8 4.3 8.7 -1.3 5.1 -0.3 -0.9 -1.1 1.1 1.7 5.8
1998
 +4.55 +2.90 1.2 7.3 3.7 -0.3 -2.7 -1.1 -2.9 -14.7 2.2 6.9 4.7 2.1
1997
 +7.53 +5.73 0.9 0.6 -2.0 0.3 6.8 4.0 2.8 -4.2 4.6 -5.2 -1.0 0.5
1996
 +14.79 +11.04 2.4 0.9 1.6 3.2 1.4 -0.5 -4.4 2.2 2.5 0.2 4.3 0.4
1995
 +16.47 +13.59 -1.8 1.0 3.0 2.5 1.8 0.7 4.1 -0.6 1.4 -2.8 2.8 3.5

* Note:
Portofolio Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.

In particular, it has been used:

  • IJR - iShares Core S&P Small-Cap: simulated historical serie, up to December 2000
  • DLS - WisdomTree International SmallCp Div: simulated historical serie, up to December 2006
  • IJS - iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value: simulated historical serie, up to December 2000
  • EEM - iShares MSCI Emerging Markets: simulated historical serie, up to December 2003
  • VTV - Vanguard Value: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
  • VEA - Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
  • SCZ - iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
  • EFV - iShares MSCI EAFE Value: simulated historical serie, up to December 2005
  • VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
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