Data Source: from January 1995 to September 2021

Last Update: 30 September 2021

The Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio is exposed for 100% on the Stock Market.

It's a Very High Risk portfolio and it can be replicated with 10 ETFs.

In the last 10 years, the portfolio obtained a 11.57% compound annual return, with a 14.00% standard deviation.

In the last 25 years, a 8.74% compound annual return, with a 16.03% standard deviation.

In 2020, the portfolio granted a 2.06% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

100% Stocks
0% Fixed Income
0% Commodities

The Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio can be replicated with the following ETFs:

Weight Ticker ETF Name Investment Themes
10.00 % DLS WisdomTree International SmallCp Div Equity, Developed Markets, Small Cap, Value
10.00 % IJS iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value Equity, U.S., Small Cap, Value
10.00 % EEM iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Equity, Emerging Markets, Large Cap
10.00 % SPY SPDR S&P 500 Equity, U.S., Large Cap
10.00 % IJR iShares Core S&P Small-Cap Equity, U.S., Small Cap
10.00 % VTV Vanguard Value Equity, U.S., Large Cap, Value
10.00 % VEA Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Equity, EAFE, Large Cap
10.00 % SCZ iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap Equity, EAFE, Small Cap
10.00 % EFV iShares MSCI EAFE Value Equity, EAFE, Large Cap, Value
10.00 % VNQ Vanguard Real Estate Real Estate, U.S.
Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns

The Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

PAUL MERRIMAN ULTIMATE BUY AND HOLD STRATEGY PORTFOLIO RETURNS (%)
Last Update: 30 September 2021
Swipe left to see all data
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y(*) 5Y(*) 10Y(*) 20Y(*) 25Y(*)
Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio -3.53 -1.83 +3.68 +34.23 +8.88 +10.46 +11.57 +9.88 +8.74
Components
DLS
WisdomTree International SmallCp Div
-3.63 +0.05 +4.92 +27.79 +4.78 +7.24 +9.06 +10.62 +7.72
IJS
iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value
-1.46 -4.03 +0.66 +66.24 +8.16 +11.74 +14.78 +10.60 +10.64
EEM
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets
-3.87 -8.65 -5.14 +15.96 +7.76 +8.29 +5.81 +10.20 +6.12
SPY
SPDR S&P 500
-4.66 +0.58 +8.99 +29.96 +15.90 +16.80 +16.51 +9.40 +9.55
IJR
iShares Core S&P Small-Cap
-2.39 -2.92 +1.29 +57.36 +9.37 +13.54 +15.66 +11.40 +10.36
VTV
Vanguard Value
-3.94 -0.95 +4.14 +32.59 +9.86 +12.14 +14.05 +8.41 +8.67
VEA
Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets
-3.38 -1.62 +4.04 +26.63 +8.23 +9.20 +8.70 +6.84 +5.42
SCZ
iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap
-4.06 +0.34 +4.54 +28.27 +8.85 +10.05 +10.75 +11.08 +8.08
EFV
iShares MSCI EAFE Value
-2.14 -1.76 +1.40 +29.84 +2.80 +5.65 +5.92 +6.26 +5.25
VNQ
Vanguard Real Estate
-5.68 +0.62 +12.29 +33.49 +11.96 +7.52 +11.52 +10.37 +10.07
(*) annualized
Portfolio returns are calculated assuming:
  • a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (i.e. at every January 1st)
  • the reinvestment of dividends

If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Historical Returns

Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio - Historical returns and stats.

PAUL MERRIMAN ULTIMATE BUY AND HOLD STRATEGY PORTFOLIO
Last Update: 30 September 2021
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Period Returns
Sep 2021
Standard
Deviation *
Max
Drawdown
Months
Pos - Neg
1M
-3.53%
-3.53%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
0 - 1
3M
-1.83%
-3.53%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
1 - 2
6M
+3.68%
-3.53%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
3 - 3
YTD
+13.65%
-3.53%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
6 - 3
1Y
+34.23%
14.19%
-3.53%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
8 - 4
3Y
+8.88%
annualized
19.64%
-27.54%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
23 - 13
5Y
+10.46%
annualized
15.73%
-27.54%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
41 - 19
10Y
+11.57%
annualized
14.00%
-27.54%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
80 - 40
20Y
+9.88%
annualized
16.35%
-57.21%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
157 - 83
25Y
+8.74%
annualized
16.03%
-57.21%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
189 - 111
MAX
01 Jan 1995
+9.13%
annualized
15.61%
-57.21%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
205 - 116
* Annualized St.Dev. of monthly returns

Best Classic Portfolios, with Very High Risk, ordered by 25 Years annualized return.

25 Years Stats
% Allocation
Portfolio Return Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm.
Technology
+13.30% -81.08% 100 0 0 Compare
US Stocks
+9.79% -50.84% 100 0 0 Compare
Warren Buffett
+9.32% -45.53% 90 10 0 Compare
Aggressive Global Income
+9.18% -52.62% 80 20 0 Compare
Stocks/Bonds 80/20
+9.12% -41.09% 80 20 0 Compare

See all portfolios

Capital Growth

Time Range:

Drawdowns

Time Range:

Rolling Returns ( more details)

Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns

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Return (*) Negative
Periods
Rolling Period Average Best Worst
1 Year
+10.48% +68.65%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2010
-49.19%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
27.74%
2 Years
+9.11% +45.51%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011
-30.73%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
17.45%
3 Years
+8.66% +33.96%
Apr 2003 - Mar 2006
-17.09%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009
14.34%
5 Years
+8.57% +24.86%
Nov 2002 - Oct 2007
-3.83%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009
7.25%
7 Years
+8.46% +15.25%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2016
+2.03%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
0.00%
10 Years
+8.64% +14.47%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2019
+3.23%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
0.00%
15 Years
+8.33% +11.73%
Feb 2003 - Jan 2018
+5.31%
Apr 2005 - Mar 2020
0.00%
20 Years
+8.39% +9.88%
Oct 2001 - Sep 2021
+6.29%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
0.00%

* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality and Yearly/Monthly Returns

Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio Seasonality: in which months is it better to invest?

In the table below, the average monthly return is represented.

Below each return, it's also mentioned the probability of obtaining a positive monthly result (Win %).

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.

Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Win %
0.12
52%
0.35
63%
1.33
74%
2.82
81%
0.41
67%
0.49
48%
0.78
52%
-0.49
56%
-0.11
59%
0.48
62%
1.69
77%
2.22
77%
Best
Year
9.0
2019
7.3
1998
9.0
2009
15.4
2009
9.2
2009
5.5
2019
9.5
2009
5.0
2009
9.6
2010
11.4
2011
13.3
2020
8.2
2010
Worst
Year
-12.4
2009
-11.7
2009
-18.3
2020
-5.0
2004
-9.3
2010
-9.1
2008
-9.2
2002
-14.7
1998
-11.0
2001
-21.9
2008
-10.1
2008
-8.0
2018
Statistics calculated for the period Jan 1995 - Sep 2021

For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.

Monthly Returns of Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio

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Months
Year Return Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2021
+13.65% 1.1 4.5 3.7 3.3 2.4 -0.2 -0.2 2.0 -3.5
2020
+6.40% -3.4 -8.3 -18.3 9.6 4.4 2.7 3.6 4.8 -2.5 -1.4 13.3 5.7
2019
+23.62% 9.0 2.2 0.1 2.9 -6.1 5.5 -0.5 -2.4 3.3 2.8 1.8 3.6
2018
-11.86% 3.8 -4.8 0.0 0.6 0.9 -0.6 2.6 0.5 -0.7 -7.8 1.8 -8.0
2017
+21.78% 2.2 2.1 1.1 1.7 1.2 1.4 2.6 -0.2 3.1 1.4 1.8 1.5
2016
+12.36% -5.4 -0.7 8.6 1.1 0.5 -0.1 4.6 0.3 1.1 -2.5 2.4 2.6
2015
-1.21% -0.9 5.0 -0.5 1.7 0.2 -2.1 0.3 -6.1 -2.8 6.4 0.2 -1.9
2014
+3.86% -3.4 5.0 0.8 0.4 1.6 2.0 -2.1 2.2 -4.8 2.9 0.2 -0.6
2013
+24.33% 4.3 0.3 2.4 3.1 -1.1 -2.1 5.1 -2.6 6.2 3.8 1.2 1.7
2012
+18.52% 6.7 3.5 1.6 -1.2 -8.5 5.2 0.1 2.8 2.7 -0.3 1.2 4.1
2011
-6.03% 1.2 3.3 0.3 4.1 -1.8 -1.7 -2.0 -7.3 -10.5 11.4 -1.4 -0.1
2010
+17.95% -3.9 2.2 7.3 2.0 -9.3 -4.0 9.0 -4.4 9.6 4.0 -1.8 8.2
2009
+32.93% -12.4 -11.7 9.0 15.4 9.2 -0.4 9.5 5.0 5.2 -3.5 4.3 3.1
2008
-39.47% -6.1 -1.7 0.7 4.7 1.7 -9.1 -1.5 -0.4 -9.0 -21.9 -10.1 7.5
2007
+3.86% 2.2 -0.8 2.2 3.2 2.9 -1.5 -3.1 0.3 3.9 4.0 -6.3 -2.5
2006
+25.26% 7.1 -0.1 3.7 2.5 -4.6 0.2 0.4 2.4 1.1 4.7 3.6 2.2
2005
+14.55% -1.6 4.2 -2.5 -1.9 2.1 2.5 4.9 0.6 2.6 -3.1 3.5 2.8
2004
+24.50% 3.2 2.5 1.8 -5.0 1.4 3.5 -3.3 1.7 2.9 2.8 7.3 3.9
2003
+45.35% -2.2 -1.7 -0.6 8.8 7.6 3.4 4.0 3.7 1.6 6.5 2.1 5.5
2002
-8.70% -0.7 0.9 5.7 1.0 1.1 -3.8 -9.2 0.2 -8.4 2.5 4.9 -2.1
2001
-4.24% 3.9 -4.6 -5.2 6.9 0.6 -0.4 -2.1 -0.8 -11.0 2.2 5.1 2.5
2000
-0.62% -3.7 1.1 3.4 -3.0 -1.0 4.6 -1.1 2.8 -2.4 -2.7 -3.8 5.7
1999
+20.93% -0.5 -2.9 4.3 8.7 -1.3 5.1 -0.3 -0.9 -1.1 1.1 1.8 5.8
1998
+4.55% 1.2 7.3 3.7 -0.3 -2.7 -1.1 -2.9 -14.7 2.3 6.9 4.7 2.1
1997
+7.53% 0.9 0.6 -2.1 0.3 6.8 4.0 2.8 -4.2 4.6 -5.3 -1.0 0.6
1996
+14.79% 2.4 1.0 1.6 3.2 1.4 -0.5 -4.4 2.2 2.5 0.2 4.3 0.4
1995
+16.47% -1.8 1.0 3.0 2.5 1.8 0.7 4.1 -0.6 1.4 -2.8 2.8 3.5

* Note:
Portofolio Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.

In particular, it has been used:

  • DLS - WisdomTree International SmallCp Div: simulated historical serie, up to December 2006
  • IJS - iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value: simulated historical serie, up to December 2000
  • EEM - iShares MSCI Emerging Markets: simulated historical serie, up to December 2003
  • IJR - iShares Core S&P Small-Cap: simulated historical serie, up to December 2000
  • VTV - Vanguard Value: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
  • VEA - Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
  • SCZ - iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
  • EFV - iShares MSCI EAFE Value: simulated historical serie, up to December 2005
  • VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
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