Data Source: from January 1987 to September 2021
Last Update: 30 September 2021
The Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio is exposed for 90% on the Stock Market.
It's a Very High Risk portfolio and it can be replicated with 3 ETFs.
In the last 10 years, the portfolio obtained a 12.72% compound annual return, with a 12.07% standard deviation.
In the last 25 years, a 8.27% compound annual return, with a 14.06% standard deviation.
In 2020, the portfolio granted a 1.94% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.
Asset Allocation and ETFs
The Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio has the following asset allocation:
The Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio can be replicated with the following ETFs:
| Weight | Ticker | ETF Name | Investment Themes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60.00 % | VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market | Equity, U.S., Large Cap | |
| 30.00 % | VEU | Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US | Equity, Global ex-US, Large Cap | |
| 10.00 % | BND | Vanguard Total Bond Market | Bond, U.S., All-Term |
Portfolio and ETF Returns
The Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y(*) | 5Y(*) | 10Y(*) | 20Y(*) | 25Y(*) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio | -3.84 | -0.98 | +5.67 | +26.08 | +12.72 | +13.19 | +12.72 | +8.86 | +8.27 |
| Components | |||||||||
|
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market |
-4.46 | -0.03 | +8.10 | +32.16 | +16.05 | +16.88 | +16.60 | +10.07 | +9.79 |
|
VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US |
-3.33 | -3.26 | +1.87 | +23.82 | +8.34 | +9.04 | +7.99 | +7.18 | +5.40 |
|
BND Vanguard Total Bond Market |
-1.01 | -0.05 | +1.88 | -1.04 | +5.36 | +2.88 | +2.88 | +4.09 | +4.86 |
- a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (i.e. at every January 1st)
- the reinvestment of dividends
If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.
Historical Returns
Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio - Historical returns and stats.
| Period | Returns Sep 2021 |
Standard Deviation * |
Max Drawdown |
Months Pos - Neg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1M
|
-3.84%
|
-3.84%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
0 - 1 | |
|
3M
|
-0.98%
|
-3.84%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
2 - 1 | |
|
6M
|
+5.67%
|
-3.84%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
5 - 1 | |
|
YTD
|
+10.78%
|
-3.84%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
7 - 2 | |
|
1Y
|
+26.08%
|
12.08%
|
-3.84%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
9 - 3 |
|
3Y
|
+12.72%
annualized
|
16.53%
|
-19.32%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
|
25 - 11 |
|
5Y
|
+13.19%
annualized
|
13.33%
|
-19.32%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
|
45 - 15 |
|
10Y
|
+12.72%
annualized
|
12.07%
|
-19.32%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
|
86 - 34 |
|
20Y
|
+8.86%
annualized
|
13.68%
|
-48.52%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
|
157 - 83 |
|
25Y
|
+8.27%
annualized
|
14.06%
|
-48.52%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
|
191 - 109 |
|
MAX
01 Jan 1987
|
+9.23%
annualized
|
13.54%
|
-48.52%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
|
274 - 143 |
Best Classic Portfolios, with Very High Risk, ordered by 25 Years annualized return.
25 Years Stats |
% Allocation |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | Return▾ | Drawdown | Stocks | Bonds | Comm. | ||
| Technology |
+13.30% | -81.08% | 100 | 0 | 0 | Compare | |
| US Stocks |
+9.79% | -50.84% | 100 | 0 | 0 | Compare | |
| Warren Buffett |
+9.32% | -45.53% | 90 | 10 | 0 | Compare | |
| Aggressive Global Income |
+9.18% | -52.62% | 80 | 20 | 0 | Compare | |
| Stocks/Bonds 80/20 |
+9.12% | -41.09% | 80 | 20 | 0 | Compare | |
Capital Growth
Drawdowns
Rolling Returns ( more details)
Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns
| Return (*) | Negative Periods |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rolling Period | Average | Best | Worst | |
| 1 Year |
+9.75% |
+53.68% Mar 2009 - Feb 2010 |
-41.49% Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 |
19.70% |
| 2 Years |
+9.03% |
+36.66% Mar 2009 - Feb 2011 |
-23.51% Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
13.96% |
| 3 Years |
+8.67% |
+23.86% Mar 2009 - Feb 2012 |
-14.58% Apr 2000 - Mar 2003 |
13.87% |
| 5 Years |
+8.53% |
+20.30% Mar 2009 - Feb 2014 |
-3.66% Mar 2004 - Feb 2009 |
4.47% |
| 7 Years |
+8.37% |
+16.89% Jan 1993 - Dec 1999 |
-0.39% Mar 2002 - Feb 2009 |
0.30% |
| 10 Years |
+8.17% |
+14.67% Oct 1990 - Sep 2000 |
-0.63% Mar 1999 - Feb 2009 |
0.67% |
| 15 Years |
+7.50% |
+10.64% Nov 1992 - Oct 2007 |
+4.25% Mar 1994 - Feb 2009 |
0.00% |
| 20 Years |
+7.49% |
+10.39% Nov 1987 - Oct 2007 |
+4.51% Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 |
0.00% |
* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods
If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.
Seasonality and Yearly/Monthly Returns
Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio Seasonality: in which months is it better to invest?
In the table below, the average monthly return is represented.
Below each return, it's also mentioned the probability of obtaining a positive monthly result (Win %).
Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
| Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Average Win % |
0.75 60% |
0.62 57% |
0.85 66% |
2.14 83% |
0.78 69% |
0.21 49% |
1.26 69% |
-0.28 63% |
-0.21 60% |
0.45 62% |
1.30 71% |
1.96 82% |
| Best Year |
11.3 1987 |
7.5 1991 |
8.0 2009 |
10.5 2009 |
8.9 1990 |
6.2 2019 |
8.3 1989 |
5.5 2020 |
8.7 2010 |
10.1 2011 |
10.9 2020 |
8.0 1991 |
| Worst Year |
-8.9 2009 |
-9.1 2009 |
-12.9 2020 |
-4.8 2000 |
-7.9 2010 |
-7.4 2008 |
-7.8 2002 |
-13.4 1998 |
-9.2 2008 |
-17.2 1987 |
-7.1 2000 |
-6.9 2018 |
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Monthly Returns of Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio
| Months | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Return | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| 2021 |
+10.78% | -0.2 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 2.2 | -3.8 | |||
| 2020 |
+16.72% | -0.9 | -6.6 | -12.9 | 10.0 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 4.8 | 5.5 | -2.7 | -1.8 | 10.9 | 4.5 |
| 2019 |
+25.83% | 7.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 3.2 | -5.4 | 6.2 | 0.4 | -1.7 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.9 |
| 2018 |
-7.40% | 4.7 | -4.0 | -1.3 | 0.4 | 1.1 | -0.2 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.2 | -7.0 | 1.7 | -6.9 |
| 2017 |
+21.30% | 2.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| 2016 |
+9.42% | -5.0 | -0.6 | 6.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 3.7 | 0.3 | 0.6 | -1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| 2015 |
-1.16% | -1.4 | 5.0 | -1.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | -2.0 | 1.0 | -6.0 | -2.9 | 6.7 | -0.1 | -2.1 |
| 2014 |
+6.75% | -3.5 | 4.6 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 2.1 | -1.7 | 2.9 | -2.8 | 1.8 | 1.5 | -1.1 |
| 2013 |
+24.11% | 3.9 | 0.4 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 0.4 | -2.1 | 5.0 | -2.6 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| 2012 |
+15.86% | 5.2 | 4.2 | 1.5 | -0.8 | -7.1 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 2.6 | -0.9 | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| 2011 |
-2.83% | 1.5 | 3.1 | 0.2 | 3.5 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1.9 | -6.0 | -8.2 | 10.1 | -1.0 | 0.1 |
| 2010 |
+14.62% | -3.7 | 2.5 | 5.8 | 0.9 | -7.9 | -3.8 | 7.4 | -3.7 | 8.7 | 3.5 | -1.0 | 6.5 |
| 2009 |
+28.98% | -8.9 | -9.1 | 8.0 | 10.5 | 7.9 | -0.4 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 4.4 | -2.6 | 5.0 | 2.0 |
| 2008 |
-34.54% | -5.9 | -1.6 | -0.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | -7.4 | -1.5 | -0.5 | -9.2 | -17.1 | -6.0 | 4.0 |
| 2007 |
+8.57% | 1.4 | -0.8 | 1.5 | 3.6 | 3.1 | -0.9 | -2.4 | 0.8 | 4.3 | 3.0 | -4.0 | -1.1 |
| 2006 |
+17.83% | 4.0 | -0.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | -3.3 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.7 |
| 2005 |
+8.70% | -1.9 | 2.6 | -2.1 | -1.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 3.6 | 0.3 | 1.8 | -2.5 | 3.6 | 1.7 |
| 2004 |
+14.35% | 2.1 | 1.7 | -0.4 | -2.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -3.1 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 5.0 | 3.5 |
| 2003 |
+30.95% | -2.8 | -1.5 | -0.1 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 4.9 |
| 2002 |
-15.98% | -1.8 | -0.7 | 3.7 | -2.4 | -0.4 | -5.3 | -7.8 | 0.6 | -8.9 | 5.9 | 4.9 | -3.7 |
| 2001 |
-11.78% | 2.8 | -7.9 | -6.1 | 7.1 | -0.4 | -2.0 | -1.5 | -4.2 | -8.3 | 2.6 | 5.3 | 1.4 |
| 2000 |
-9.89% | -4.4 | 2.5 | 4.6 | -4.8 | -2.9 | 4.1 | -2.4 | 4.9 | -4.2 | -2.0 | -7.1 | 2.3 |
| 1999 |
+23.19% | 2.1 | -3.1 | 3.9 | 4.4 | -2.8 | 4.4 | -1.3 | -0.5 | -1.1 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 7.4 |
| 1998 |
+19.50% | 1.3 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 0.9 | -2.0 | 2.1 | -1.1 | -13.4 | 3.5 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 4.9 |
| 1997 |
+19.31% | 2.6 | 0.5 | -2.9 | 2.9 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 5.5 | -4.8 | 5.3 | -4.5 | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| 1996 |
+14.34% | 1.8 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 1.2 | -0.3 | -4.2 | 1.9 | 4.1 | 0.7 | 5.3 | -1.4 |
| 1995 |
+24.48% | 0.3 | 1.2 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 4.0 | -0.1 | 2.8 | -1.3 | 3.5 | 2.1 |
| 1994 |
+2.56% | 5.0 | -1.4 | -3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | -1.0 | 2.1 | 3.1 | -2.1 | 1.8 | -3.9 | 1.1 |
| 1993 |
+16.32% | 0.8 | 1.5 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 2.9 | -0.6 | 1.3 | 4.0 | -1.0 | 1.4 | -4.2 | 3.1 |
| 1992 |
+1.74% | -0.9 | -0.3 | -3.6 | 0.7 | 2.4 | -2.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.0 | -0.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 |
| 1991 |
+23.80% | 3.6 | 7.5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 2.4 | -4.7 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.7 | -3.8 | 8.0 |
| 1990 |
-10.22% | -5.5 | -1.0 | -1.5 | -2.6 | 8.9 | -0.3 | 0.1 | -8.6 | -6.9 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 2.4 |
| 1989 |
+22.09% | 4.7 | -1.0 | 0.6 | 3.5 | 1.3 | -0.5 | 8.3 | 0.2 | 1.3 | -2.6 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 1988 |
+18.82% | 4.0 | 5.2 | 0.9 | 1.2 | -0.9 | 2.2 | 0.1 | -3.5 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| 1987 |
+10.87% | 11.3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 4.9 | -1.8 | -17.2 | -3.8 | 4.8 |
* Note: Portofolio Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
In particular, it has been used:
- VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2001
- VEU - Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
- BND - Vanguard Total Bond Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007