Data Source: from January 1970 to October 2022 (~53 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 October 2022
Live Update: Nov 29 2022, 04:00PM Eastern Time
PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
0.11%
1 Day
Nov 29 2022, 04:00PM Eastern Time
4.75%
Current Month
November 2022

The Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio is a Very High Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 3 ETFs.

It's exposed for 90% on the Stock Market.

In the last 30 Years, the Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio obtained a 8.16% compound annual return, with a 13.62% standard deviation.

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

90% Stocks
10% Fixed Income
0% Commodities

The Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight Ticker ETF Name Investment Themes
60.00 %
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market Equity, U.S., Large Cap
30.00 %
VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Equity, Global ex-US, Large Cap
10.00 %
BND Vanguard Total Bond Market Bond, U.S., All-Term
Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Oct 31, 2022

The Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Portfolio returns are calculated in USD, assuming: November 2022 return is calculated on the hypothesis of a newly built portfolio, with the starting asset allocation.
PAUL FARRELL SECOND GRADER'S STARTER PORTFOLIO RETURNS
Consolidated returns as of 31 October 2022
Live Update: Nov 29 2022, 04:00PM Eastern Time
Swipe left to see all data
  Chg (%) Return (%)
Return (%) as of Oct 31, 2022
  1 Day Time ET(*) Nov 2022 1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~53Y)
Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio 0.11 4.75 5.69 -7.96 -18.92 5.81 8.69 8.16 9.57
US Inflation Adjusted return 5.27 -10.71 -24.75 1.88 5.98 5.51 5.37
Components
VTI
Vanguard Total Stock Market
-0.15 03:59PM
Nov 29 2022
2.04 8.11 -5.43 -16.87 9.80 12.41 9.79 10.34
VEU
Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US
0.79 03:59PM
Nov 29 2022
10.81 3.40 -13.38 -24.31 -0.30 3.59 5.18 6.31
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
-0.37 04:00PM
Nov 29 2022
2.87 -1.16 -6.55 -15.59 -0.50 0.65 4.32 6.25
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1970
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)

US Inflation is updated to Oct 2022. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 7.75% , 5Y: 3.85% , 10Y: 2.57% , 30Y: 2.51%

Portfolio Metrics as of Oct 31, 2022

Metrics of Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio, updated as of 31 October 2022.

Portfolio metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
PAUL FARRELL SECOND GRADER'S STARTER PORTFOLIO
Portfolio Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 1970 - 31 October 2022 (~53 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of Oct 31, 2022
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
(~53Y)
Portfolio
Return (%)
5.69 -7.31 -7.96 -18.92 5.15 5.81 8.69 8.49 8.16 9.57
US Inflation (%) 0.41 0.59 3.08 7.75 5.01 3.85 2.57 2.52 2.51 3.99
Infl. Adjusted
Return (%)
5.27 -7.85 -10.71 -24.75 0.13 1.88 5.98 5.83 5.51 5.37
Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 17.34 17.83 15.86 12.83 13.87 13.62 13.96
Sharpe Ratio -1.13 0.27 0.30 0.64 0.53 0.44 0.40
Sortino Ratio -1.67 0.35 0.40 0.83 0.70 0.57 0.54
MAXIMUM DRAWDOWN
Drawdown Depth (%) -24.21 -24.21 -24.21 -24.21 -48.52 -48.52 -48.52
Start (yyyy mm) 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2007 11 2007 11 2007 11
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2009 02 2009 02
Start to Bottom (# months) 9 9 9 9 16 16 16
Start to Recovery (# months) in progress
> 10
> 10
> 10
> 10
59
59
59
ROLLING PERIOD RETURNS - Annualized
Best Return (%) 57.57 36.51 30.27 19.47 15.76 13.57
Worst Return (%) -41.49 -14.58 -3.66 -0.63 4.51 7.62
% Positive Periods 80% 88% 97% 100% 100% 100%
MONTHS
Positive 1 1 3 5 22 39 83 157 232 404
Negative 0 2 3 7 14 21 37 83 128 230
% Positive 100% 33% 50% 42% 61% 65% 69% 65% 64% 64%
WITHDRAWAL RATES (WR)
Safe WR (%) 39.75 23.09 15.02 9.26 7.70 5.04
Perpetual WR (%) 0.13 1.84 5.64 5.51 5.22 5.09
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Maximum Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.
  • Rolling Returns: returns over a time frame (best, worst, % of positive returns).
  • Pos./Neg. Months: number of months with positive/negative return.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the original portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money (dollar amount withdrawal).
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year, while retaining the inflation adjusted portfolio balance (percentage withdrawal).

Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.

Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1.

If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.

Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS
Monthly correlations as of 31 October 2022
Swipe left to see all data
 
 
 
Asset VTI VEU BND
VTI
1.00
0.91
0.69
VEU
0.91
1.00
0.69
BND
0.69
0.69
1.00
 
 
 
Asset VTI VEU BND
VTI
1.00
0.90
0.39
VEU
0.90
1.00
0.36
BND
0.39
0.36
1.00
 
 
 
Asset VTI VEU BND
VTI
1.00
0.86
0.28
VEU
0.86
1.00
0.30
BND
0.28
0.30
1.00
 
 
 
Asset VTI VEU BND
VTI
1.00
0.82
0.11
VEU
0.82
1.00
0.11
BND
0.11
0.11
1.00
 
 
 
Asset VTI VEU BND
VTI
1.00
0.79
0.21
VEU
0.79
1.00
0.18
BND
0.21
0.18
1.00

Portfolio Dividends

In 2021, the Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio granted a 2.09% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Capital Growth as of Oct 31, 2022

An investment of 1000$, since November 1992, now would be worth 10506.81$, with a total return of 950.68% (8.16% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 4999.35$, with a net total return of 399.93% (5.51% annualized).
An investment of 1000$, since January 1970, now would be worth 125082.00$, with a total return of 12408.20% (9.57% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 15823.49$, with a net total return of 1482.35% (5.37% annualized).

Drawdowns

Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months
-48.52% Nov 2007 Feb 2009 16 Sep 2012 43 59
-39.03% Apr 2000 Sep 2002 30 Jul 2005 34 64
-24.21% Jan 2022 Sep 2022 9 in progress 1 10
-19.32% Jan 2020 Mar 2020 3 Aug 2020 5 8
-14.32% Jul 1998 Aug 1998 2 Nov 1998 3 5
-11.99% Oct 2018 Dec 2018 3 Apr 2019 4 7
-10.88% Jun 2015 Feb 2016 9 Jul 2016 5 14
-5.44% May 2019 May 2019 1 Jun 2019 1 2
-5.17% Feb 2018 Mar 2018 2 Aug 2018 5 7
-5.09% Feb 1994 Mar 1994 2 Aug 1994 5 7
-4.84% Aug 1997 Aug 1997 1 Sep 1997 1 2
-4.52% Oct 1997 Oct 1997 1 Feb 1998 4 5
-4.50% Jun 1996 Jul 1996 2 Sep 1996 2 4
-4.47% Sep 2020 Oct 2020 2 Nov 2020 1 3
-4.39% Jan 2000 Jan 2000 1 Mar 2000 2 3
-4.27% Sep 1994 Nov 1994 3 Mar 1995 4 7
-4.22% Nov 1993 Nov 1993 1 Jan 1994 2 3
-3.84% Sep 2021 Sep 2021 1 Oct 2021 1 2
-3.49% Jan 2014 Jan 2014 1 Feb 2014 1 2
-3.36% May 2006 Jun 2006 2 Sep 2006 3 5
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months
-48.52% Nov 2007 Feb 2009 16 Sep 2012 43 59
-39.03% Apr 2000 Sep 2002 30 Jul 2005 34 64
-38.74% Jan 1973 Sep 1974 21 Mar 1976 18 39
-24.21% Jan 2022 Sep 2022 9 in progress 1 10
-21.75% Sep 1987 Nov 1987 3 Jan 1989 14 17
-19.60% Jan 1970 Jun 1970 6 Dec 1970 6 12
-19.32% Jan 2020 Mar 2020 3 Aug 2020 5 8
-17.61% Dec 1980 Jul 1982 20 Oct 1982 3 23
-16.95% Jan 1990 Sep 1990 9 Feb 1991 5 14
-14.32% Jul 1998 Aug 1998 2 Nov 1998 3 5
-11.99% Oct 2018 Dec 2018 3 Apr 2019 4 7
-10.99% Feb 1980 Mar 1980 2 Jun 1980 3 5
-10.88% Jun 2015 Feb 2016 9 Jul 2016 5 14
-8.94% Jul 1983 May 1984 11 Aug 1984 3 14
-8.59% Oct 1978 Oct 1978 1 Jan 1979 3 4
-7.18% Oct 1979 Oct 1979 1 Dec 1979 2 3
-5.44% May 2019 May 2019 1 Jun 2019 1 2
-5.36% May 1971 Jul 1971 3 Dec 1971 5 8
-5.18% Sep 1986 Sep 1986 1 Jan 1987 4 5
-5.17% Feb 2018 Mar 2018 2 Aug 2018 5 7

Rolling Returns ( more details)

Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns

Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Return (*) Negative
Periods
Average (%) Best (%) Worst (%)
1 Year
11.28 57.57
Jul 1982 - Jun 1983
-41.49
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
19.58%
2 Years
10.69 41.25
Oct 1985 - Sep 1987
-23.51
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
12.27%
3 Years
10.31 36.51
Aug 1984 - Jul 1987
-14.58
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003
11.69%
5 Years
10.27 30.27
Aug 1982 - Jul 1987
-3.66
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009
2.96%
7 Years
10.30 24.05
Aug 1982 - Jul 1989
-0.39
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
0.18%
10 Years
10.42 19.47
Sep 1977 - Aug 1987
-0.63
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
0.39%
15 Years
10.39 17.90
Oct 1974 - Sep 1989
4.25
Mar 1994 - Feb 2009
0.00%
20 Years
10.27 15.76
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
4.51
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
0.00%
30 Years
10.27 13.57
Jul 1970 - Jun 2000
7.62
Apr 1990 - Mar 2020
0.00%
(*) Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.

For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
1.33
40%
-1.62
40%
-1.74
60%
1.94
80%
0.39
80%
0.54
60%
3.10
100%
0.73
60%
-2.66
40%
0.82
60%
3.03
80%
1.07
80%
 Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100
101.33
99.69
97.96
99.86
100.25
100.79
103.91
104.67
101.89
102.72
105.84
106.97
Best 7.5
2019
2.6
2019
2.6
2021
10.0
2020
4.6
2020
6.2
2019
6.7
2022
5.5
2020
1.9
2019
5.7
2022
10.9
2020
4.5
2020
Worst -4.6
2022
-6.6
2020
-12.9
2020
-7.8
2022
-5.4
2019
-7.4
2022
0.4
2019
-3.8
2022
-8.8
2022
-7.0
2018
-2.1
2021
-6.9
2018
Monthly Seasonality over the period Nov 2017 - Oct 2022
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
0.30
40%
0.40
60%
0.10
70%
1.66
90%
0.71
90%
0.17
60%
2.57
90%
-0.14
60%
-1.17
50%
1.63
70%
2.12
80%
0.83
70%
 Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100
100.30
100.70
100.81
102.48
103.21
103.38
106.04
105.89
104.66
106.36
108.62
109.53
Best 7.5
2019
5.0
2015
6.8
2016
10.0
2020
4.6
2020
6.2
2019
6.7
2022
5.5
2020
4.7
2013
6.7
2015
10.9
2020
4.5
2020
Worst -5.0
2016
-6.6
2020
-12.9
2020
-7.8
2022
-5.4
2019
-7.4
2022
-1.7
2014
-6.0
2015
-8.8
2022
-7.0
2018
-2.1
2021
-6.9
2018
Monthly Seasonality over the period Nov 2012 - Oct 2022
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
0.96
58%
0.60
55%
0.99
66%
1.59
77%
0.52
62%
0.38
51%
0.94
60%
0.37
60%
-0.48
60%
0.83
62%
1.65
73%
1.83
79%
 Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100
100.96
101.56
102.57
104.20
104.74
105.15
106.14
106.53
106.02
106.90
108.66
110.66
Best 12.0
1975
7.7
1986
8.0
2009
10.5
2009
8.9
1990
6.2
2019
8.3
1989
11.1
1982
8.7
2010
14.9
1974
10.9
2020
8.1
1971
Worst -8.9
2009
-9.1
2009
-12.9
2020
-8.9
1970
-7.9
2010
-7.4
2022
-7.8
2002
-13.4
1998
-9.2
2008
-17.2
1987
-10.1
1973
-6.9
2018
Monthly Seasonality over the period Jan 1970 - Oct 2022

Monthly/Yearly Returns

Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio data source starts from January 1970: let's focus on monthly and yearly returns.

We are providing two different views:
  • Histogram: it shows the distribution of the returns recorded so far
  • Plain Table: it shows the detailed monthly and yearly returns
MONTHLY RETURNS HISTOGRAM
Jan 1970 - Oct 2022
404 Positive Months (64%) - 230 Negative Months (36%)
MONTHLY RETURNS TABLE
Jan 1970 - Oct 2022
(Scroll down to see all data)
Swipe left to see all data
Yearly Return(%)
Monthly Return(%)
Year Total Infl.Adj Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2022
-19.90 -25.06 -4.6 -2.5 1.5 -7.8 0.4 -7.4 6.7 -3.8 -8.8 5.7
2021
+17.70 +9.96 -0.2 2.4 2.6 3.9 1.2 1.4 0.8 2.2 -3.8 5.0 -2.1 3.4
2020
+16.72 +15.16 -0.9 -6.6 -12.9 10.0 4.6 2.7 4.8 5.5 -2.7 -1.8 10.9 4.5
2019
+25.83 +23.02 7.5 2.6 1.3 3.2 -5.4 6.2 0.4 -1.7 1.9 2.3 2.6 2.9
2018
-7.40 -9.13 4.7 -4.0 -1.2 0.4 1.1 -0.2 2.9 1.5 0.2 -7.0 1.7 -6.9
2017
+21.30 +18.80 2.4 2.7 0.9 1.4 1.6 0.7 2.2 0.4 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.4
2016
+9.42 +7.20 -5.0 -0.6 6.8 1.1 0.8 0.2 3.7 0.3 0.6 -1.9 1.8 1.8
2015
-1.16 -1.88 -1.4 5.0 -1.1 1.8 0.4 -2.0 1.0 -6.0 -2.9 6.7 -0.1 -2.0
2014
+6.75 +5.94 -3.5 4.6 0.4 0.6 1.9 2.1 -1.7 2.9 -2.8 1.8 1.5 -1.1
2013
+24.11 +22.28 3.9 0.4 2.6 2.2 0.4 -2.1 5.0 -2.6 4.7 3.7 1.8 2.1
2012
+15.86 +13.87 5.2 4.2 1.5 -0.8 -7.1 4.4 0.8 2.4 2.6 -0.9 1.0 2.2
2011
-2.83 -5.63 1.5 3.1 0.2 3.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.9 -6.0 -8.2 10.1 -0.9 0.1
2010
+14.62 +12.93 -3.7 2.5 5.8 0.9 -7.9 -3.8 7.4 -3.7 8.7 3.5 -1.0 6.5
2009
+28.98 +25.56 -8.9 -9.1 8.0 10.5 7.9 -0.4 8.0 3.2 4.4 -2.6 5.0 2.0
2008
-34.54 -34.60 -5.9 -1.5 -0.5 4.6 1.5 -7.4 -1.5 -0.5 -9.2 -17.1 -6.0 4.0
2007
+8.57 +4.31 1.4 -0.8 1.5 3.6 3.1 -0.9 -2.4 0.8 4.3 3.0 -3.9 -1.1
2006
+17.83 +14.92 4.0 -0.1 2.1 2.1 -3.3 0.0 0.4 2.3 1.5 3.4 2.7 1.7
2005
+8.70 +5.11 -1.9 2.6 -2.1 -1.8 2.4 0.9 3.6 0.3 1.8 -2.5 3.6 1.7
2004
+14.35 +10.74 2.1 1.7 -0.4 -2.5 1.0 2.0 -3.1 0.5 1.9 2.1 5.0 3.5
2003
+30.95 +28.53 -2.8 -1.5 -0.1 8.1 5.5 1.8 2.0 2.3 0.4 5.6 1.6 4.9
2002
-15.98 -17.93 -1.8 -0.7 3.7 -2.4 -0.4 -5.3 -7.8 0.6 -8.9 5.8 4.9 -3.7
2001
-11.78 -13.13 2.8 -7.9 -6.1 7.1 -0.4 -2.0 -1.5 -4.2 -8.3 2.6 5.3 1.4
2000
-9.89 -12.84 -4.4 2.5 4.6 -4.8 -2.9 4.1 -2.4 4.8 -4.2 -2.0 -7.1 2.3
1999
+23.19 +19.97 2.1 -3.1 3.9 4.4 -2.8 4.4 -1.3 -0.5 -1.1 4.9 3.3 7.4
1998
+19.50 +17.60 1.3 6.5 4.1 0.9 -2.0 2.1 -1.0 -13.4 3.5 7.6 5.4 4.9
1997
+19.31 +17.31 2.6 0.5 -2.9 2.9 6.3 4.4 5.5 -4.8 5.3 -4.5 1.9 1.4
1996
+14.34 +10.66 1.8 0.9 1.2 2.6 1.2 -0.3 -4.2 1.9 4.1 0.7 5.3 -1.4
1995
+24.48 +21.40 0.3 1.2 3.5 2.7 2.0 1.5 4.0 -0.1 2.8 -1.3 3.5 2.1
1994
+2.56 -0.11 5.0 -1.4 -3.8 1.5 0.5 -1.0 2.1 3.1 -2.1 1.8 -3.9 1.1
1993
+16.32 +13.21 0.8 1.5 4.6 1.6 2.9 -0.6 1.3 4.0 -1.0 1.4 -4.2 3.1
1992
+1.74 -1.13 -0.9 -0.3 -3.6 0.7 2.4 -2.3 1.7 0.6 0.0 -0.9 2.9 1.4
1991
+23.80 +20.12 3.6 7.5 0.4 0.8 2.4 -4.7 4.3 1.0 1.1 1.7 -3.8 8.0
1990
-10.22 -15.38 -5.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.6 8.9 -0.3 0.1 -8.6 -6.9 3.6 1.9 2.4
1989
+22.09 +16.67 4.7 -1.0 0.6 3.5 1.3 -0.5 8.3 0.2 1.3 -2.6 2.3 2.3
1988
+18.82 +13.80 4.0 5.2 0.9 1.2 -0.9 2.2 0.1 -3.5 3.3 3.0 1.0 1.0
1987
+10.87 +6.16 11.3 3.7 4.7 2.2 0.4 1.5 2.5 4.9 -1.8 -17.2 -3.8 4.8
1986
+29.27 +27.86 1.3 7.7 7.7 1.9 1.5 3.5 -1.2 6.4 -5.2 0.0 2.9 0.2
1985
+36.18 +31.19 8.4 1.8 0.4 0.5 6.0 1.9 0.3 0.0 -2.8 4.4 6.6 4.4
1984
+3.66 -0.28 -0.9 -3.5 1.0 0.3 -5.2 2.1 -1.3 10.0 0.1 0.4 -0.9 2.2
1983
+21.23 +16.80 3.6 2.9 3.1 7.0 0.4 3.5 -3.1 0.8 1.7 -2.1 2.6 -0.7
1982
+14.99 +10.75 -2.6 -5.0 -1.4 3.6 -3.0 -2.8 -2.0 11.1 1.3 10.8 4.2 1.2
1981
-2.74 -10.71 -3.7 1.4 4.1 -1.6 1.3 -0.8 -0.4 -5.1 -5.2 5.8 5.0 -2.8
1980
+27.18 +13.03 5.3 -0.7 -10.4 5.3 5.5 3.1 5.8 1.1 2.5 1.5 9.8 -3.1
1979
+17.88 +4.04 4.2 -2.7 5.6 0.4 -1.3 4.0 1.0 5.6 0.0 -7.2 5.7 2.2
1978
+14.57 +5.09 -4.5 -0.4 3.4 8.0 2.3 -0.5 5.6 4.0 0.0 -8.6 3.4 1.9
1977
+2.89 -3.57 -3.4 -0.8 -0.3 1.0 -0.4 5.0 -0.7 -0.5 0.7 -2.9 4.2 1.2
1976
+17.93 +12.46 10.8 -0.3 2.1 -1.3 -1.5 4.0 -1.0 -0.4 2.0 -2.3 0.2 5.1
1975
+32.69 +24.08 12.0 5.6 2.5 4.2 5.3 4.7 -6.0 -2.1 -3.6 5.7 2.8 -1.0
1974
-22.01 -30.58 0.0 0.3 -2.1 -3.9 -2.8 -1.7 -6.3 -7.3 -9.0 14.9 -3.0 -1.7
1973
-13.91 -20.80 -2.1 -3.7 -0.4 -4.2 -1.6 -0.6 4.4 -2.2 4.9 0.1 -10.1 1.3
1972
+22.52 +18.49 2.7 3.4 1.1 1.1 2.1 -1.4 0.3 3.7 -0.1 1.3 4.8 1.5
1971
+21.01 +17.19 4.8 1.6 4.6 3.6 -3.1 0.6 -2.9 4.4 0.4 -2.7 0.5 8.1
1970
+0.25 -5.04 -6.9 5.3 -0.1 -8.9 -5.7 -4.4 6.8 3.8 3.2 -1.3 5.0 5.1

Portofolio Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.

In particular, it has been used:

  • VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2001
  • VEU - Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
  • BND - Vanguard Total Bond Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007

Portfolio efficiency

Compared to the Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio, the following portfolios granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.

Swipe left to see all data
30 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Return Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Stocks/Bonds 80/20 Momentum
+11.15 12.13 -43.61 80 20 0
US Stocks Minimum Volatility
+9.77 13.59 -43.27 100 0 0
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Momentum
+9.67 9.35 -32.52 60 40 0
Warren Buffett Portfolio
Warren Buffett
+9.34 13.41 -45.52 90 10 0
Robust
Alpha Architect
+9.06 10.90 -44.20 70 20 10
Stocks/Bonds 80/20
+8.97 12.23 -41.09 80 20 0
Simple Path to Wealth
JL Collins
+8.74 11.50 -38.53 75 25 0
Sheltered Sam 80/20
Bill Bernstein
+8.56 11.99 -45.06 77.6 20 2.4
Mid-Fifties
Burton Malkiel
+8.56 12.76 -46.21 80 20 0
Late Thirties to Early Forties
Burton Malkiel
+8.48 13.38 -48.28 85 15 0
Seven Value
Scott Burns
+8.41 11.18 -41.22 71.5 28.5 0
Late Sixties and Beyond
Burton Malkiel
+8.41 11.45 -41.80 71 29 0
Yale Endowment
David Swensen
+8.35 10.67 -39.48 70 30 0
Edge Select Aggressive
Merrill Lynch
+8.33 13.02 -45.65 84 16 0
Talmud Portfolio
Roger Gibson
+8.27 10.53 -40.17 66.7 33.3 0
Robo Advisor 80
Betterment
+8.23 12.87 -45.47 80 20 0
Six Ways from Sunday
Scott Burns
+8.16 10.79 -39.14 66.7 33.3 0
Second Grader's Starter
Paul Farrell
+8.16 13.62 -48.52 90 10 0

Here's a list containing the Best Classic Portfolios, with the highest returns over 30 Years and Very High Risk categorization.

Swipe left to see all data
30 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Return Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Technology
+13.06 23.81 -81.08 100 0 0
US Stocks Momentum
+12.44 15.06 -53.85 100 0 0
Stocks/Bonds 80/20 Momentum
+11.15 12.13 -43.61 80 20 0
US Stocks
+9.79 15.27 -50.84 100 0 0
US Stocks Minimum Volatility
+9.77 13.59 -43.27 100 0 0
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