The Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio is a Very High Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 3 ETFs.
It's exposed for 90% on the Stock Market.
In the last 30 Years, the Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio obtained a 8.25% compound annual return, with a 13.41% standard deviation.
Asset Allocation and ETFs
The Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio has the following asset allocation:
The Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:
Weight | Ticker | ETF Name | Investment Themes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
60.00 % | VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market | Equity, U.S., Large Cap | |
30.00 % | VEU | Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US | Equity, Global ex-US, Large Cap | |
10.00 % | BND | Vanguard Total Bond Market | Bond, U.S., All-Term |
Portfolio and ETF Returns
The Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.
Portfolio returns are calculated in USD, assuming:
- No fees or capital gain taxes
- a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (at every January 1st). How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
- the reinvestment of dividends
Chg (%) | Return (%) | Return (%) as of Jun 30, 2022 |
|||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 Day | Time ET(*) | Jul 2022 | 1M | 6M | 1Y | 5Y(*) | 10Y(*) | 30Y(*) | |
Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio | -0.76 | -0.06 | -7.38 | -19.04 | -14.83 | 7.40 | 9.34 | 8.25 | |
US Inflation Adjusted return | -7.38 | -22.19 | -20.82 | 3.66 | 6.71 | 5.63 | |||
Components | |||||||||
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market |
-0.20 |
02:59PM Jul 05 2022 |
0.85 | -8.23 | -21.32 | -14.17 | 10.53 | 12.52 | 9.81 |
VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US |
-2.22 |
03:00PM Jul 05 2022 |
-2.24 | -7.68 | -17.38 | -18.51 | 2.89 | 5.19 | 5.29 |
BND Vanguard Total Bond Market |
0.23 |
02:59PM Jul 05 2022 |
1.03 | -1.66 | -10.35 | -10.42 | 0.84 | 1.40 | 4.63 |
US Inflation is updated to May 2022. Waiting for updates, inflation of Jun 2022 is set to 0%. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 7.57% , 5Y: 3.61% , 10Y: 2.46% , 30Y: 2.47%
Portfolio Dividends
In 2021, the Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio granted a 2.09% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.
Historical Returns as of Jun 30, 2022
Historical returns and stats of Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio. Total Returns and Inflation Adjusted Returns are both mentioned.
Period | Return (%) as of Jun 2022 |
Return (%) Infl.Adj. |
Standard Deviation (%) |
Max Drawdown (%) |
Months Pos - Neg |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1M
Jun 2022
|
-7.38
|
-7.38
|
-7.38
Jun 2022 - Jun 2022
|
0 - 1
|
|
3M
|
-14.25
|
-15.36
|
-14.25
Apr 2022 - Jun 2022
|
1 - 2
|
|
6M
|
-19.04
|
-22.19
|
-19.04
Jan 2022 - Jun 2022
|
2 - 4
|
|
YTD
|
-19.04
|
-22.19
|
-19.04
Jan 2022 - Jun 2022
|
2 - 4
|
|
1Y
|
-14.83
|
-20.82
|
13.69
|
-19.04
Jan 2022 - Jun 2022
|
6 - 6
50% pos
|
3Y(*)
|
6.49
|
1.90
|
16.25
|
-19.32
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
|
23 - 13
64% pos
|
5Y(*)
|
7.40
|
3.66
|
14.78
|
-19.32
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
|
41 - 19
68% pos
|
10Y(*)
|
9.34
|
6.71
|
12.18
|
-19.32
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
|
84 - 36
70% pos
|
15Y(*)
|
6.20
|
3.81
|
14.85
|
-48.52
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
|
115 - 65
64% pos
|
20Y(*)
|
7.94
|
5.36
|
13.90
|
-48.52
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
|
157 - 83
65% pos
|
25Y(*)
|
6.85
|
4.32
|
14.22
|
-48.52
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
|
188 - 112
63% pos
|
30Y(*)
|
8.25
|
5.63
|
13.41
|
-48.52
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
|
233 - 127
65% pos
|
MAX(*)
01 Jan 1986
|
9.09
|
6.20
|
13.61
|
-48.52
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
|
288 - 150
66% pos
|
Returns and stats are calculated assuming a yearly rebalancing of the components weight. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
Capital Growth as of Jun 30, 2022
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 5178.10$, with a net total return of 417.81% (5.63% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 8990.88$, with a net total return of 799.09% (6.20% annualized).
Drawdowns
Drawdown period |
Recovery period |
Total |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months |
-48.52% | Nov 2007 | Feb 2009 | 16 | Sep 2012 | 43 | 59 |
-39.03% | Apr 2000 | Sep 2002 | 30 | Jul 2005 | 34 | 64 |
-19.32% | Jan 2020 | Mar 2020 | 3 | Aug 2020 | 5 | 8 |
-19.04% | Jan 2022 | Jun 2022 | 6 | in progress | 6 | |
-14.32% | Jul 1998 | Aug 1998 | 2 | Nov 1998 | 3 | 5 |
-11.99% | Oct 2018 | Dec 2018 | 3 | Apr 2019 | 4 | 7 |
-10.88% | Jun 2015 | Feb 2016 | 9 | Jul 2016 | 5 | 14 |
-5.44% | May 2019 | May 2019 | 1 | Jun 2019 | 1 | 2 |
-5.17% | Feb 2018 | Mar 2018 | 2 | Aug 2018 | 5 | 7 |
-5.09% | Feb 1994 | Mar 1994 | 2 | Aug 1994 | 5 | 7 |
-4.84% | Aug 1997 | Aug 1997 | 1 | Sep 1997 | 1 | 2 |
-4.52% | Oct 1997 | Oct 1997 | 1 | Feb 1998 | 4 | 5 |
-4.50% | Jun 1996 | Jul 1996 | 2 | Sep 1996 | 2 | 4 |
-4.47% | Sep 2020 | Oct 2020 | 2 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 3 |
-4.39% | Jan 2000 | Jan 2000 | 1 | Mar 2000 | 2 | 3 |
-4.27% | Sep 1994 | Nov 1994 | 3 | Mar 1995 | 4 | 7 |
-4.22% | Nov 1993 | Nov 1993 | 1 | Jan 1994 | 2 | 3 |
-3.84% | Sep 2021 | Sep 2021 | 1 | Oct 2021 | 1 | 2 |
-3.49% | Jan 2014 | Jan 2014 | 1 | Feb 2014 | 1 | 2 |
-3.36% | May 2006 | Jun 2006 | 2 | Sep 2006 | 3 | 5 |
Drawdown period |
Recovery period |
Total |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months |
-48.52% | Nov 2007 | Feb 2009 | 16 | Sep 2012 | 43 | 59 |
-39.03% | Apr 2000 | Sep 2002 | 30 | Jul 2005 | 34 | 64 |
-21.75% | Sep 1987 | Nov 1987 | 3 | Jan 1989 | 14 | 17 |
-19.32% | Jan 2020 | Mar 2020 | 3 | Aug 2020 | 5 | 8 |
-19.04% | Jan 2022 | Jun 2022 | 6 | in progress | 6 | |
-16.95% | Jan 1990 | Sep 1990 | 9 | Feb 1991 | 5 | 14 |
-14.32% | Jul 1998 | Aug 1998 | 2 | Nov 1998 | 3 | 5 |
-11.99% | Oct 2018 | Dec 2018 | 3 | Apr 2019 | 4 | 7 |
-10.88% | Jun 2015 | Feb 2016 | 9 | Jul 2016 | 5 | 14 |
-5.44% | May 2019 | May 2019 | 1 | Jun 2019 | 1 | 2 |
-5.18% | Sep 1986 | Sep 1986 | 1 | Jan 1987 | 4 | 5 |
-5.17% | Feb 2018 | Mar 2018 | 2 | Aug 2018 | 5 | 7 |
-5.09% | Feb 1994 | Mar 1994 | 2 | Aug 1994 | 5 | 7 |
-4.84% | Aug 1997 | Aug 1997 | 1 | Sep 1997 | 1 | 2 |
-4.67% | Jun 1991 | Jun 1991 | 1 | Aug 1991 | 2 | 3 |
-4.65% | Jan 1992 | Mar 1992 | 3 | Nov 1992 | 8 | 11 |
-4.52% | Oct 1997 | Oct 1997 | 1 | Feb 1998 | 4 | 5 |
-4.50% | Jun 1996 | Jul 1996 | 2 | Sep 1996 | 2 | 4 |
-4.47% | Sep 2020 | Oct 2020 | 2 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 3 |
-4.39% | Jan 2000 | Jan 2000 | 1 | Mar 2000 | 2 | 3 |
Rolling Returns ( more details)
Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns
Rolling Period |
Return (*) | Negative Periods |
||
---|---|---|---|---|
Average (%) | Best (%) | Worst (%) | ||
1 Year |
10.27 |
53.68 Mar 2009 - Feb 2010 |
-41.49 Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 |
19.44% |
2 Years |
9.38 |
36.66 Mar 2009 - Feb 2011 |
-23.51 Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
13.25% |
3 Years |
9.02 |
23.86 Mar 2009 - Feb 2012 |
-14.58 Apr 2000 - Mar 2003 |
13.15% |
5 Years |
8.71 |
20.30 Mar 2009 - Feb 2014 |
-3.66 Mar 2004 - Feb 2009 |
4.22% |
7 Years |
8.52 |
16.89 Jan 1993 - Dec 1999 |
-0.39 Mar 2002 - Feb 2009 |
0.28% |
10 Years |
8.39 |
14.67 Oct 1990 - Sep 2000 |
-0.63 Mar 1999 - Feb 2009 |
0.63% |
15 Years |
7.67 |
13.19 Feb 1986 - Jan 2001 |
4.25 Mar 1994 - Feb 2009 |
0.00% |
20 Years |
7.68 |
10.84 Feb 1986 - Jan 2006 |
4.51 Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 |
0.00% |
If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.
Seasonality
Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio: in which months is it better to invest?
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
Average Win % |
0.62 59% |
0.73 57% |
1.05 68% |
1.87 81% |
0.79 70% |
0.09 49% |
1.19 67% |
-0.09 64% |
-0.35 58% |
0.56 64% |
1.25 69% |
1.95 83% |
Best Year |
11.3 1987 |
7.7 1986 |
8.0 2009 |
10.5 2009 |
8.9 1990 |
6.2 2019 |
8.3 1989 |
6.4 1986 |
8.7 2010 |
10.1 2011 |
10.9 2020 |
8.0 1991 |
Worst Year |
-8.9 2009 |
-9.1 2009 |
-12.9 2020 |
-7.8 2022 |
-7.9 2010 |
-7.4 2022 |
-7.8 2002 |
-13.4 1998 |
-9.2 2008 |
-17.2 1987 |
-7.1 2000 |
-6.9 2018 |
Monthly/Yearly Returns
Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio monthly and yearly returns: how is the distribution of the returns recorded so far?
Yearly Return(%) |
Monthly Return(%) |
|||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Total | Infl.Adj | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
2022 |
-19.04 | -22.19 | -4.6 | -2.5 | 1.5 | -7.8 | 0.4 | -7.4 | ||||||
2021 |
+17.70 | +9.90 | -0.2 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 2.2 | -3.8 | 5.0 | -2.1 | 3.4 |
2020 |
+16.72 | +15.25 | -0.9 | -6.6 | -12.9 | 10.0 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 4.8 | 5.5 | -2.7 | -1.8 | 10.9 | 4.5 |
2019 |
+25.83 | +23.05 | 7.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 3.2 | -5.4 | 6.2 | 0.4 | -1.7 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.9 |
2018 |
-7.40 | -9.14 | 4.7 | -4.0 | -1.2 | 0.4 | 1.1 | -0.2 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.2 | -7.0 | 1.7 | -6.9 |
2017 |
+21.30 | +18.77 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.4 |
2016 |
+9.42 | +7.22 | -5.0 | -0.6 | 6.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 3.7 | 0.3 | 0.6 | -1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
2015 |
-1.16 | -1.79 | -1.4 | 5.0 | -1.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | -2.0 | 1.0 | -6.0 | -2.9 | 6.7 | -0.1 | -2.0 |
2014 |
+6.75 | +6.05 | -3.5 | 4.6 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 2.1 | -1.7 | 2.9 | -2.8 | 1.8 | 1.5 | -1.1 |
2013 |
+24.11 | +22.26 | 3.9 | 0.4 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 0.4 | -2.1 | 5.0 | -2.6 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 2.1 |
2012 |
+15.86 | +13.85 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 1.5 | -0.8 | -7.1 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 2.6 | -0.9 | 1.0 | 2.2 |
2011 |
-2.83 | -5.72 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 0.2 | 3.5 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1.9 | -6.0 | -8.2 | 10.1 | -0.9 | 0.1 |
2010 |
+14.62 | +12.99 | -3.7 | 2.5 | 5.8 | 0.9 | -7.9 | -3.8 | 7.4 | -3.7 | 8.7 | 3.5 | -1.0 | 6.5 |
2009 |
+28.98 | +25.45 | -8.9 | -9.1 | 8.0 | 10.5 | 7.9 | -0.4 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 4.4 | -2.6 | 5.0 | 2.0 |
2008 |
-34.54 | -34.52 | -5.9 | -1.5 | -0.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | -7.4 | -1.5 | -0.5 | -9.2 | -17.1 | -6.0 | 4.0 |
2007 |
+8.57 | +4.29 | 1.4 | -0.8 | 1.5 | 3.6 | 3.1 | -0.9 | -2.4 | 0.8 | 4.3 | 3.0 | -3.9 | -1.1 |
2006 |
+17.83 | +14.93 | 4.0 | -0.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | -3.3 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.7 |
2005 |
+8.70 | +5.18 | -1.9 | 2.6 | -2.1 | -1.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 3.6 | 0.3 | 1.8 | -2.5 | 3.6 | 1.7 |
2004 |
+14.35 | +10.65 | 2.1 | 1.7 | -0.4 | -2.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -3.1 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 5.0 | 3.5 |
2003 |
+30.95 | +28.34 | -2.8 | -1.5 | -0.1 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 4.9 |
2002 |
-15.98 | -18.02 | -1.8 | -0.7 | 3.7 | -2.4 | -0.4 | -5.3 | -7.8 | 0.6 | -8.9 | 5.8 | 4.9 | -3.7 |
2001 |
-11.78 | -13.18 | 2.8 | -7.9 | -6.1 | 7.1 | -0.4 | -2.0 | -1.5 | -4.2 | -8.3 | 2.6 | 5.3 | 1.4 |
2000 |
-9.89 | -12.88 | -4.4 | 2.5 | 4.6 | -4.8 | -2.9 | 4.1 | -2.4 | 4.8 | -4.2 | -2.0 | -7.1 | 2.3 |
1999 |
+23.19 | +19.98 | 2.1 | -3.1 | 3.9 | 4.4 | -2.8 | 4.4 | -1.3 | -0.5 | -1.1 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 7.4 |
1998 |
+19.50 | +17.61 | 1.3 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 0.9 | -2.0 | 2.1 | -1.0 | -13.4 | 3.5 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 4.9 |
1997 |
+19.31 | +17.32 | 2.6 | 0.5 | -2.9 | 2.9 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 5.5 | -4.8 | 5.3 | -4.5 | 1.9 | 1.4 |
1996 |
+14.34 | +10.60 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 1.2 | -0.3 | -4.2 | 1.9 | 4.1 | 0.7 | 5.3 | -1.4 |
1995 |
+24.48 | +21.41 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 4.0 | -0.1 | 2.8 | -1.3 | 3.5 | 2.1 |
1994 |
+2.56 | -0.04 | 5.0 | -1.4 | -3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | -1.0 | 2.1 | 3.1 | -2.1 | 1.8 | -3.9 | 1.1 |
1993 |
+16.32 | +13.14 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 2.9 | -0.6 | 1.3 | 4.0 | -1.0 | 1.4 | -4.2 | 3.1 |
1992 |
+1.74 | -1.19 | -0.9 | -0.3 | -3.6 | 0.7 | 2.4 | -2.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.0 | -0.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 |
1991 |
+23.80 | +20.22 | 3.6 | 7.5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 2.4 | -4.7 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.7 | -3.8 | 8.0 |
1990 |
-10.22 | -15.50 | -5.5 | -1.0 | -1.5 | -2.6 | 8.9 | -0.3 | 0.1 | -8.6 | -6.9 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 2.4 |
1989 |
+22.09 | +16.68 | 4.7 | -1.0 | 0.6 | 3.5 | 1.3 | -0.5 | 8.3 | 0.2 | 1.3 | -2.6 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
1988 |
+18.82 | +13.80 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 0.9 | 1.2 | -0.9 | 2.2 | 0.1 | -3.5 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
1987 |
+10.87 | +6.26 | 11.3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 4.9 | -1.8 | -17.2 | -3.8 | 4.8 |
1986 |
+29.27 | +27.75 | 1.3 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 3.5 | -1.2 | 6.4 | -5.2 | 0.0 | 2.9 | 0.2 |
Portofolio Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
In particular, it has been used:
- VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2001
- VEU - Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
- BND - Vanguard Total Bond Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
Portfolio efficiency
Is the Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio actually efficient, compared to other Lazy Portfolios?
Overall Ratings
The Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio is classified as Very High Risk.
Less than 25%
25% - 49.99%
50% - 74.99%
At least 75%
Very High Risk Portfolios |
All Portfolios |
||
---|---|---|---|
25 Years Ann. Return (Inflation Adjusted) |
+6.85%
(+4.32%) |
Poor : 1 / 5
|
Average : 2.8 / 5
|
Standard Deviation over 25 Years |
14.22% |
Good : 3.9 / 5
|
Average : 2.4 / 5
|
Maximum Drawdown over 25 Years |
-48.52% |
Excellent : 4.1 / 5
|
Bad : 1.8 / 5
|
Easy to manage | 3 ETFs |
Good : 4 / 5
|
Good : 4 / 5
|
Rating assigned considering all the Very High Risk Portfolios | Rating assigned considering all the Portfolios in the database |
Best Classic Portfolios, with Very High Risk
30 Years Stats (%) |
% Allocation |
|||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Portfolio | Jul 2022 | Return▾ | Drawdown | Stocks | Bonds | Comm | ||
Technology |
+1.92 | +13.42 | -81.08 | 100 | 0 | 0 | ||
US Stocks |
+0.85 | +9.81 | -50.84 | 100 | 0 | 0 | ||
Warren Buffett Portfolio Warren Buffett |
+0.84 | +9.38 | -45.52 | 90 | 10 | 0 | ||
Aggressive Global Income |
-0.51 | +9.37 | -52.63 | 80 | 20 | 0 | ||
Stocks/Bonds 80/20 |
+0.89 | +9.06 | -41.09 | 80 | 20 | 0 |
Last update: Jul 05 2022, 03:00PM Eastern Time.