Data Source: from January 1987 to September 2021

Last Update: 30 September 2021

The Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio is exposed for 90% on the Stock Market.

It's a Very High Risk portfolio and it can be replicated with 3 ETFs.

In the last 10 years, the portfolio obtained a 12.72% compound annual return, with a 12.07% standard deviation.

In the last 25 years, a 8.27% compound annual return, with a 14.06% standard deviation.

In 2020, the portfolio granted a 1.94% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

90% Stocks
10% Fixed Income
0% Commodities

The Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio can be replicated with the following ETFs:

Weight Ticker ETF Name Investment Themes
60.00 % VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market Equity, U.S., Large Cap
30.00 % VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Equity, Global ex-US, Large Cap
10.00 % BND Vanguard Total Bond Market Bond, U.S., All-Term
Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns

The Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

PAUL FARRELL SECOND GRADER'S STARTER PORTFOLIO RETURNS (%)
Last Update: 30 September 2021
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1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y(*) 5Y(*) 10Y(*) 20Y(*) 25Y(*)
Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio -3.84 -0.98 +5.67 +26.08 +12.72 +13.19 +12.72 +8.86 +8.27
Components
VTI
Vanguard Total Stock Market
-4.46 -0.03 +8.10 +32.16 +16.05 +16.88 +16.60 +10.07 +9.79
VEU
Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US
-3.33 -3.26 +1.87 +23.82 +8.34 +9.04 +7.99 +7.18 +5.40
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
-1.01 -0.05 +1.88 -1.04 +5.36 +2.88 +2.88 +4.09 +4.86
(*) annualized
Portfolio returns are calculated assuming:
  • a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (i.e. at every January 1st)
  • the reinvestment of dividends

If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Historical Returns

Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio - Historical returns and stats.

PAUL FARRELL SECOND GRADER'S STARTER PORTFOLIO
Last Update: 30 September 2021
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Period Returns
Sep 2021
Standard
Deviation *
Max
Drawdown
Months
Pos - Neg
1M
-3.84%
-3.84%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
0 - 1
3M
-0.98%
-3.84%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
2 - 1
6M
+5.67%
-3.84%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
5 - 1
YTD
+10.78%
-3.84%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
7 - 2
1Y
+26.08%
12.08%
-3.84%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
9 - 3
3Y
+12.72%
annualized
16.53%
-19.32%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
25 - 11
5Y
+13.19%
annualized
13.33%
-19.32%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
45 - 15
10Y
+12.72%
annualized
12.07%
-19.32%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
86 - 34
20Y
+8.86%
annualized
13.68%
-48.52%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
157 - 83
25Y
+8.27%
annualized
14.06%
-48.52%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
191 - 109
MAX
01 Jan 1987
+9.23%
annualized
13.54%
-48.52%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
274 - 143
* Annualized St.Dev. of monthly returns

Best Classic Portfolios, with Very High Risk, ordered by 25 Years annualized return.

25 Years Stats
% Allocation
Portfolio Return Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm.
Technology
+13.30% -81.08% 100 0 0 Compare
US Stocks
+9.79% -50.84% 100 0 0 Compare
Warren Buffett
+9.32% -45.53% 90 10 0 Compare
Aggressive Global Income
+9.18% -52.62% 80 20 0 Compare
Stocks/Bonds 80/20
+9.12% -41.09% 80 20 0 Compare

See all portfolios

Capital Growth

Time Range:

Drawdowns

Time Range:

Rolling Returns ( more details)

Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns

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Return (*) Negative
Periods
Rolling Period Average Best Worst
1 Year
+9.75% +53.68%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2010
-41.49%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
19.70%
2 Years
+9.03% +36.66%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011
-23.51%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
13.96%
3 Years
+8.67% +23.86%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2012
-14.58%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003
13.87%
5 Years
+8.53% +20.30%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2014
-3.66%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009
4.47%
7 Years
+8.37% +16.89%
Jan 1993 - Dec 1999
-0.39%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
0.30%
10 Years
+8.17% +14.67%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2000
-0.63%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
0.67%
15 Years
+7.50% +10.64%
Nov 1992 - Oct 2007
+4.25%
Mar 1994 - Feb 2009
0.00%
20 Years
+7.49% +10.39%
Nov 1987 - Oct 2007
+4.51%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
0.00%

* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality and Yearly/Monthly Returns

Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio Seasonality: in which months is it better to invest?

In the table below, the average monthly return is represented.

Below each return, it's also mentioned the probability of obtaining a positive monthly result (Win %).

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.

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Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Win %
0.75
60%
0.62
57%
0.85
66%
2.14
83%
0.78
69%
0.21
49%
1.26
69%
-0.28
63%
-0.21
60%
0.45
62%
1.30
71%
1.96
82%
Best
Year
11.3
1987
7.5
1991
8.0
2009
10.5
2009
8.9
1990
6.2
2019
8.3
1989
5.5
2020
8.7
2010
10.1
2011
10.9
2020
8.0
1991
Worst
Year
-8.9
2009
-9.1
2009
-12.9
2020
-4.8
2000
-7.9
2010
-7.4
2008
-7.8
2002
-13.4
1998
-9.2
2008
-17.2
1987
-7.1
2000
-6.9
2018
Statistics calculated for the period Jan 1987 - Sep 2021

For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.

Monthly Returns of Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio

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Months
Year Return Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2021
+10.78% -0.2 2.4 2.6 3.9 1.2 1.5 0.8 2.2 -3.8
2020
+16.72% -0.9 -6.6 -12.9 10.0 4.6 2.7 4.8 5.5 -2.7 -1.8 10.9 4.5
2019
+25.83% 7.5 2.6 1.3 3.2 -5.4 6.2 0.4 -1.7 1.9 2.3 2.6 2.9
2018
-7.40% 4.7 -4.0 -1.3 0.4 1.1 -0.2 2.9 1.5 0.2 -7.0 1.7 -6.9
2017
+21.30% 2.4 2.7 0.9 1.4 1.6 0.7 2.2 0.4 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.4
2016
+9.42% -5.0 -0.6 6.8 1.1 0.8 0.2 3.7 0.3 0.6 -1.9 1.8 1.8
2015
-1.16% -1.4 5.0 -1.1 1.8 0.4 -2.0 1.0 -6.0 -2.9 6.7 -0.1 -2.1
2014
+6.75% -3.5 4.6 0.4 0.6 1.9 2.1 -1.7 2.9 -2.8 1.8 1.5 -1.1
2013
+24.11% 3.9 0.4 2.6 2.2 0.4 -2.1 5.0 -2.6 4.7 3.7 1.8 2.1
2012
+15.86% 5.2 4.2 1.5 -0.8 -7.1 4.4 0.8 2.4 2.6 -0.9 1.0 2.2
2011
-2.83% 1.5 3.1 0.2 3.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.9 -6.0 -8.2 10.1 -1.0 0.1
2010
+14.62% -3.7 2.5 5.8 0.9 -7.9 -3.8 7.4 -3.7 8.7 3.5 -1.0 6.5
2009
+28.98% -8.9 -9.1 8.0 10.5 7.9 -0.4 8.0 3.2 4.4 -2.6 5.0 2.0
2008
-34.54% -5.9 -1.6 -0.5 4.6 1.5 -7.4 -1.5 -0.5 -9.2 -17.1 -6.0 4.0
2007
+8.57% 1.4 -0.8 1.5 3.6 3.1 -0.9 -2.4 0.8 4.3 3.0 -4.0 -1.1
2006
+17.83% 4.0 -0.1 2.1 2.1 -3.3 0.0 0.4 2.3 1.5 3.4 2.7 1.7
2005
+8.70% -1.9 2.6 -2.1 -1.8 2.4 0.9 3.6 0.3 1.8 -2.5 3.6 1.7
2004
+14.35% 2.1 1.7 -0.4 -2.5 1.0 2.0 -3.1 0.5 1.9 2.1 5.0 3.5
2003
+30.95% -2.8 -1.5 -0.1 8.1 5.5 1.8 2.1 2.3 0.4 5.6 1.6 4.9
2002
-15.98% -1.8 -0.7 3.7 -2.4 -0.4 -5.3 -7.8 0.6 -8.9 5.9 4.9 -3.7
2001
-11.78% 2.8 -7.9 -6.1 7.1 -0.4 -2.0 -1.5 -4.2 -8.3 2.6 5.3 1.4
2000
-9.89% -4.4 2.5 4.6 -4.8 -2.9 4.1 -2.4 4.9 -4.2 -2.0 -7.1 2.3
1999
+23.19% 2.1 -3.1 3.9 4.4 -2.8 4.4 -1.3 -0.5 -1.1 4.9 3.3 7.4
1998
+19.50% 1.3 6.5 4.1 0.9 -2.0 2.1 -1.1 -13.4 3.5 7.6 5.4 4.9
1997
+19.31% 2.6 0.5 -2.9 2.9 6.3 4.4 5.5 -4.8 5.3 -4.5 1.9 1.4
1996
+14.34% 1.8 0.9 1.2 2.6 1.2 -0.3 -4.2 1.9 4.1 0.7 5.3 -1.4
1995
+24.48% 0.3 1.2 3.5 2.7 2.0 1.5 4.0 -0.1 2.8 -1.3 3.5 2.1
1994
+2.56% 5.0 -1.4 -3.8 1.5 0.5 -1.0 2.1 3.1 -2.1 1.8 -3.9 1.1
1993
+16.32% 0.8 1.5 4.6 1.7 2.9 -0.6 1.3 4.0 -1.0 1.4 -4.2 3.1
1992
+1.74% -0.9 -0.3 -3.6 0.7 2.4 -2.3 1.7 0.6 0.0 -0.9 2.9 1.4
1991
+23.80% 3.6 7.5 0.4 0.8 2.4 -4.7 4.3 1.0 1.1 1.7 -3.8 8.0
1990
-10.22% -5.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.6 8.9 -0.3 0.1 -8.6 -6.9 3.7 1.9 2.4
1989
+22.09% 4.7 -1.0 0.6 3.5 1.3 -0.5 8.3 0.2 1.3 -2.6 2.3 2.3
1988
+18.82% 4.0 5.2 0.9 1.2 -0.9 2.2 0.1 -3.5 3.3 3.0 1.0 1.1
1987
+10.87% 11.3 3.7 4.7 2.2 0.4 1.5 2.5 4.9 -1.8 -17.2 -3.8 4.8

* Note:
Portofolio Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.

In particular, it has been used:

  • VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2001
  • VEU - Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
  • BND - Vanguard Total Bond Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
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