Data Source: from January 1987 to December 2021
Last Update: 31 December 2021
The Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio is exposed for 90% on the Stock Market.
It's a Very High Risk portfolio and it can be replicated with 3 ETFs.
In the last 10 years, the portfolio obtained a 12.42% compound annual return, with a 11.84% standard deviation.
In the last 25 years, a 8.34% compound annual return, with a 14.07% standard deviation.
Asset Allocation and ETFs
The Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio has the following asset allocation:
The Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio can be replicated with the following ETFs:
| Weight | Ticker | ETF Name | Investment Themes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60.00 % | VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market | Equity, U.S., Large Cap | |
| 30.00 % | VEU | Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US | Equity, Global ex-US, Large Cap | |
| 10.00 % | BND | Vanguard Total Bond Market | Bond, U.S., All-Term |
Portfolio and ETF Returns
The Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y(*) | 5Y(*) | 10Y(*) | 20Y(*) | 25Y(*) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio | +3.41 | +6.24 | +5.20 | +17.70 | +20.02 | +14.19 | +12.42 | +8.70 | +8.34 |
| --- Inflation Adjusted return | +2.92 | +3.95 | +1.74 | +9.87 | +15.92 | +10.95 | +10.09 | +6.24 | +5.91 |
| Components | |||||||||
|
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market |
+3.79 | +9.11 | +9.08 | +25.67 | +25.73 | +17.96 | +16.29 | +9.91 | +9.88 |
|
VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US |
+3.69 | +1.96 | -1.37 | +8.28 | +13.60 | +9.89 | +7.57 | +6.87 | +5.48 |
|
BND Vanguard Total Bond Market |
-0.31 | -0.04 | -0.08 | -1.86 | +4.78 | +3.54 | +2.75 | +4.09 | +4.73 |
- a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (i.e. at every January 1st)
- the reinvestment of dividends
Inflation is updated to Dec 2021. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 7.12% , 3Y: 3.53% , 5Y: 2.92% , 10Y: 2.12% , 20Y: 2.31% , 25Y: 2.29%
In 2021, the portfolio granted a 2.09% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.
Historical Returns
Historical returns and stats of Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio. Total Returns and Inflation Adjusted Returns are both mentioned.
| Period | Return Dec 2021 update |
Return Inflation Adjusted |
Standard Deviation(*) |
Max Drawdown |
Months Pos - Neg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1M
Dec 2021
|
+3.41%
|
+2.92%
|
0.00%
|
1 - 0
|
|
|
3M
|
+6.24%
|
+3.95%
|
-2.12%
Nov 2021 - Nov 2021
|
2 - 1
|
|
|
6M
|
+5.20%
|
+1.74%
|
-3.84%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
4 - 2
|
|
|
YTD
|
+17.70%
|
+9.87%
|
8.30%
|
-3.84%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
9 - 3
75% pos
|
|
1Y
|
+17.70%
|
+9.87%
|
8.30%
|
-3.84%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
9 - 3
75% pos
|
|
3Y
|
+20.02%
annualized
|
+15.92%
annualized
|
15.37%
|
-19.32%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
|
26 - 10
72% pos
|
|
5Y
|
+14.19%
annualized
|
+10.95%
annualized
|
13.48%
|
-19.32%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
|
45 - 15
75% pos
|
|
10Y
|
+12.42%
annualized
|
+10.09%
annualized
|
11.84%
|
-19.32%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
|
86 - 34
72% pos
|
|
20Y
|
+8.70%
annualized
|
+6.24%
annualized
|
13.70%
|
-48.52%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
|
156 - 84
65% pos
|
|
25Y
|
+8.34%
annualized
|
+5.91%
annualized
|
14.07%
|
-48.52%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
|
191 - 109
64% pos
|
|
MAX
01 Jan 1987
|
+9.35%
annualized
|
+6.49%
annualized
|
13.52%
|
-48.52%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
|
276 - 144
66% pos
|
Portfolio efficiency
Is the Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio actually efficient, compared to other Lazy Portfolios?
Best Classic Portfolios, with Very High Risk, ordered by 25 Years annualized return.
25 Years Stats |
% Allocation |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | Return▾ | Drawdown | Stocks | Bonds | Comm. | ||
| Technology |
+13.30% | -81.08% | 100 | 0 | 0 | Compare | |
| US Stocks |
+9.88% | -50.84% | 100 | 0 | 0 | Compare | |
| Warren Buffett Portfolio Warren Buffett |
+9.38% | -45.53% | 90 | 10 | 0 | Compare | |
| Aggressive Global Income |
+9.25% | -52.62% | 80 | 20 | 0 | Compare | |
| Stocks/Bonds 80/20 |
+9.17% | -41.09% | 80 | 20 | 0 | Compare | |
Our overall ratings, assigned to the Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio. The portfolio is classified as Very High Risk.
Less than 25%
25% - 49.99%
50% - 74.99%
At least 75%
| Very High Risk Portfolios |
All Portfolios |
||
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Years Ann. Return (Inflation Adjusted) |
+8.34%
(+5.91%) |
Average : 2.6 / 5
|
Good : 3.8 / 5
|
| Standard Deviation over 25 Years |
14.07% |
Good : 4 / 5
|
Average : 2.4 / 5
|
| Maximum Drawdown over 25 Years |
-48.52% |
Excellent : 4.1 / 5
|
Bad : 1.8 / 5
|
| Easy to manage | 3 ETFs |
Good : 4 / 5
|
Good : 4 / 5
|
| Rating assigned considering all the Very High Risk Portfolios | Rating assigned considering all the Portfolios in the database |
Capital Growth
An investment of 1000$, since January 1997, now would be worth 7403.87$, with a total return of 640.39% (8.34% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 4204.10$, with a net total return of 320.41% (5.91% annualized).
Drawdowns
Worst drawdowns since January 1997 - Chart and Data
Drawdown period |
Recovery period |
Total |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months |
| -48.52% | Nov 2007 | Feb 2009 | 16 | Sep 2012 | 43 | 59 |
| -39.03% | Apr 2000 | Sep 2002 | 30 | Jul 2005 | 34 | 64 |
| -19.32% | Jan 2020 | Mar 2020 | 3 | Aug 2020 | 5 | 8 |
| -14.32% | Jul 1998 | Aug 1998 | 2 | Nov 1998 | 3 | 5 |
| -11.99% | Oct 2018 | Dec 2018 | 3 | Apr 2019 | 4 | 7 |
| -10.88% | Jun 2015 | Feb 2016 | 9 | Jul 2016 | 5 | 14 |
| -5.44% | May 2019 | May 2019 | 1 | Jun 2019 | 1 | 2 |
| -5.17% | Feb 2018 | Mar 2018 | 2 | Aug 2018 | 5 | 7 |
| -4.84% | Aug 1997 | Aug 1997 | 1 | Sep 1997 | 1 | 2 |
| -4.52% | Oct 1997 | Oct 1997 | 1 | Feb 1998 | 4 | 5 |
| -4.47% | Sep 2020 | Oct 2020 | 2 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 3 |
| -4.39% | Jan 2000 | Jan 2000 | 1 | Mar 2000 | 2 | 3 |
| -3.84% | Sep 2021 | Sep 2021 | 1 | Oct 2021 | 1 | 2 |
| -3.49% | Jan 2014 | Jan 2014 | 1 | Feb 2014 | 1 | 2 |
| -3.36% | May 2006 | Jun 2006 | 2 | Sep 2006 | 3 | 5 |
| -3.24% | Jun 2007 | Jul 2007 | 2 | Sep 2007 | 2 | 4 |
| -3.08% | Feb 1999 | Feb 1999 | 1 | Mar 1999 | 1 | 2 |
| -2.88% | Jul 1999 | Sep 1999 | 3 | Oct 1999 | 1 | 4 |
| -2.86% | Mar 1997 | Mar 1997 | 1 | May 1997 | 2 | 3 |
| -2.79% | May 1999 | May 1999 | 1 | Jun 1999 | 1 | 2 |
Rolling Returns ( more details)
Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns
| Return (*) | Negative Periods |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rolling Period | Average | Best | Worst | |
| 1 Year |
+9.85% |
+53.68% Mar 2009 - Feb 2010 |
-41.49% Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 |
19.56% |
| 2 Years |
+9.09% |
+36.66% Mar 2009 - Feb 2011 |
-23.51% Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
13.85% |
| 3 Years |
+8.74% |
+23.86% Mar 2009 - Feb 2012 |
-14.58% Apr 2000 - Mar 2003 |
13.77% |
| 5 Years |
+8.58% |
+20.30% Mar 2009 - Feb 2014 |
-3.66% Mar 2004 - Feb 2009 |
4.43% |
| 7 Years |
+8.40% |
+16.89% Jan 1993 - Dec 1999 |
-0.39% Mar 2002 - Feb 2009 |
0.30% |
| 10 Years |
+8.21% |
+14.67% Oct 1990 - Sep 2000 |
-0.63% Mar 1999 - Feb 2009 |
0.66% |
| 15 Years |
+7.51% |
+10.64% Nov 1992 - Oct 2007 |
+4.25% Mar 1994 - Feb 2009 |
0.00% |
| 20 Years |
+7.51% |
+10.39% Nov 1987 - Oct 2007 |
+4.51% Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 |
0.00% |
* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods
If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.
Seasonality
Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio Seasonality: in which months is it better to invest?
In the table below, the average monthly return is represented.
Below each return, it's also mentioned the probability of obtaining a positive monthly result (Win %).
Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
| Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Average Win % |
0.75 60% |
0.62 57% |
0.85 66% |
2.14 83% |
0.78 69% |
0.21 49% |
1.26 69% |
-0.28 63% |
-0.21 60% |
0.57 63% |
1.20 69% |
2.00 83% |
| Best Year |
11.3 1987 |
7.5 1991 |
8.0 2009 |
10.5 2009 |
8.9 1990 |
6.2 2019 |
8.3 1989 |
5.5 2020 |
8.7 2010 |
10.1 2011 |
10.9 2020 |
8.0 1991 |
| Worst Year |
-8.9 2009 |
-9.1 2009 |
-12.9 2020 |
-4.8 2000 |
-7.9 2010 |
-7.4 2008 |
-7.8 2002 |
-13.4 1998 |
-9.2 2008 |
-17.2 1987 |
-7.1 2000 |
-6.9 2018 |
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Monthly/Yearly Returns
Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio monthly and yearly returns: how is the distribution of the returns recorded so far?
Yearly Return(%) |
Monthly Return(%) |
|||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Infl.Adj | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| 2021 |
+17.70 | +9.87 | -0.2 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 2.2 | -3.8 | 5.0 | -2.1 | 3.4 |
| 2020 |
+16.72 | +15.23 | -0.9 | -6.6 | -12.9 | 10.0 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 4.8 | 5.5 | -2.7 | -1.8 | 10.9 | 4.5 |
| 2019 |
+25.83 | +23.05 | 7.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 3.2 | -5.4 | 6.2 | 0.4 | -1.7 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.9 |
| 2018 |
-7.40 | -9.14 | 4.7 | -4.0 | -1.2 | 0.4 | 1.1 | -0.2 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.2 | -7.0 | 1.7 | -6.9 |
| 2017 |
+21.30 | +18.81 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| 2016 |
+9.42 | +7.22 | -5.0 | -0.6 | 6.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 3.7 | 0.3 | 0.6 | -1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| 2015 |
-1.16 | -1.79 | -1.4 | 5.0 | -1.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | -2.0 | 1.0 | -6.0 | -2.9 | 6.7 | -0.1 | -2.0 |
| 2014 |
+6.75 | +6.05 | -3.5 | 4.6 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 2.1 | -1.7 | 2.9 | -2.8 | 1.8 | 1.5 | -1.1 |
| 2013 |
+24.11 | +22.26 | 3.9 | 0.4 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 0.4 | -2.1 | 5.0 | -2.6 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| 2012 |
+15.86 | +13.85 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 1.5 | -0.8 | -7.1 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 2.6 | -0.9 | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| 2011 |
-2.83 | -5.72 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 0.2 | 3.5 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1.9 | -6.0 | -8.2 | 10.1 | -0.9 | 0.1 |
| 2010 |
+14.62 | +12.99 | -3.7 | 2.5 | 5.8 | 0.9 | -7.9 | -3.8 | 7.4 | -3.7 | 8.7 | 3.5 | -1.0 | 6.5 |
| 2009 |
+28.98 | +25.45 | -8.9 | -9.1 | 8.0 | 10.5 | 7.9 | -0.4 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 4.4 | -2.6 | 5.0 | 2.0 |
| 2008 |
-34.54 | -34.52 | -5.9 | -1.5 | -0.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | -7.4 | -1.5 | -0.5 | -9.2 | -17.1 | -6.0 | 4.0 |
| 2007 |
+8.57 | +4.29 | 1.4 | -0.8 | 1.5 | 3.6 | 3.1 | -0.9 | -2.4 | 0.8 | 4.3 | 3.0 | -3.9 | -1.1 |
| 2006 |
+17.83 | +14.93 | 4.0 | -0.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | -3.3 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.7 |
| 2005 |
+8.70 | +5.18 | -1.9 | 2.6 | -2.1 | -1.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 3.6 | 0.3 | 1.8 | -2.5 | 3.6 | 1.7 |
| 2004 |
+14.35 | +10.65 | 2.1 | 1.7 | -0.4 | -2.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -3.1 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 5.0 | 3.5 |
| 2003 |
+30.95 | +28.34 | -2.8 | -1.5 | -0.1 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 4.9 |
| 2002 |
-15.98 | -18.02 | -1.8 | -0.7 | 3.7 | -2.4 | -0.4 | -5.3 | -7.8 | 0.6 | -8.9 | 5.8 | 4.9 | -3.7 |
| 2001 |
-11.78 | -13.18 | 2.8 | -7.9 | -6.1 | 7.1 | -0.4 | -2.0 | -1.5 | -4.2 | -8.3 | 2.6 | 5.3 | 1.4 |
| 2000 |
-9.89 | -12.88 | -4.4 | 2.5 | 4.6 | -4.8 | -2.9 | 4.1 | -2.4 | 4.8 | -4.2 | -2.0 | -7.1 | 2.3 |
| 1999 |
+23.19 | +19.98 | 2.1 | -3.1 | 3.9 | 4.4 | -2.8 | 4.4 | -1.3 | -0.5 | -1.1 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 7.4 |
| 1998 |
+19.50 | +17.61 | 1.3 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 0.9 | -2.0 | 2.1 | -1.0 | -13.4 | 3.5 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 4.9 |
| 1997 |
+19.31 | +17.32 | 2.6 | 0.5 | -2.9 | 2.9 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 5.5 | -4.8 | 5.3 | -4.5 | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| 1996 |
+14.34 | +10.60 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 1.2 | -0.3 | -4.2 | 1.9 | 4.1 | 0.7 | 5.3 | -1.4 |
| 1995 |
+24.48 | +21.41 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 4.0 | -0.1 | 2.8 | -1.3 | 3.5 | 2.1 |
| 1994 |
+2.56 | -0.04 | 5.0 | -1.4 | -3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | -1.0 | 2.1 | 3.1 | -2.1 | 1.8 | -3.9 | 1.1 |
| 1993 |
+16.32 | +13.14 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 2.9 | -0.6 | 1.3 | 4.0 | -1.0 | 1.4 | -4.2 | 3.1 |
| 1992 |
+1.74 | -1.19 | -0.9 | -0.3 | -3.6 | 0.7 | 2.4 | -2.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.0 | -0.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 |
| 1991 |
+23.80 | +20.22 | 3.6 | 7.5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 2.4 | -4.7 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.7 | -3.8 | 8.0 |
| 1990 |
-10.22 | -15.50 | -5.5 | -1.0 | -1.5 | -2.6 | 8.9 | -0.3 | 0.1 | -8.6 | -6.9 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 2.4 |
| 1989 |
+22.09 | +16.68 | 4.7 | -1.0 | 0.6 | 3.5 | 1.3 | -0.5 | 8.3 | 0.2 | 1.3 | -2.6 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 1988 |
+18.82 | +13.80 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 0.9 | 1.2 | -0.9 | 2.2 | 0.1 | -3.5 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1987 |
+10.87 | +6.26 | 11.3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 4.9 | -1.8 | -17.2 | -3.8 | 4.8 |
* Note: Portofolio Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
In particular, it has been used:
- VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2001
- VEU - Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
- BND - Vanguard Total Bond Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007