Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns

Last Update: 31 January 2020

The Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio is exposed for 90% on the Stock Market.

It's a Very High Risk portfolio and it can be replicated with 3 ETFs.

In the last 10 years, the portfolio obtained a 10.41% compound annual return, with a 11.66% standard deviation.

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

        90% Stocks
      
        10% Fixed Income
      
        0% Commodities

The Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio can be replicated with the following ETFs:

Weight	Ticker	ETF Name	Investment Themes
60.00 %	VTI	Vanguard Total Stock Market	Equity, U.S., Large Cap
30.00 %	VEU	Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US	Equity, Global ex-US, Large Cap
10.00 %	BND	Vanguard Total Bond Market	Bond, U.S., All-Term

Historical Returns

Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio - Historical returns and stats.

Returns, capital growth, stats are calculated assuming a rebalancing of the portfolio at the beginning of each year (i.e. at every January 1st).

PAUL FARRELL SECOND GRADER'S STARTER PORTFOLIO

Last Update: 31 January 2020

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Period	Returns Jan 2020	Standard Deviation *	Max Drawdown	Months Pos - Neg
1M	-0.86%		-0.86% Jan 2020 - Jan 2020	0 - 1
3M	+4.75%		-0.86% Jan 2020 - Jan 2020	2 - 1
6M	+7.27%		-1.74% Aug 2019 - Aug 2019	4 - 2
YTD	-0.86%		-0.86% Jan 2020 - Jan 2020	0 - 1
1Y	+16.04%	9.77%	-5.44% May 2019 - May 2019	9 - 3
3Y	+11.03% annualized	10.40%	-11.98% Oct 2018 - Dec 2018	28 - 8
5Y	+8.98% annualized	10.50%	-11.98% Oct 2018 - Dec 2018	43 - 17
10Y	+10.41% annualized	11.66%	-17.88% May 2011 - Sep 2011	83 - 37
MAX 01 Jan 1987	+8.84% annualized	13.25%	-48.52% Nov 2007 - Feb 2009	260 - 137

* Annualized St.Dev. of monthly returns

Best Very High Risk Porftolios, ordered by 10Y annualized return.

Portfolio	10Y Return ▾	#ETF	Stocks	Bonds
Technology	+18.98%	1	100	0
US Stocks	+13.83%	1	100	0
Warren Buffett	+12.70%	2	90	10
Second Grader's Starter Paul Farrell	+10.41%	3	90	10
Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Paul Merriman	+9.99%	10	100	0

See all portfolios

Capital Growth

Time Range:

Drawdowns

Time Range:

Worst drawdowns since January 2010.

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	Drawdown period			Recovery period		Total
Drawdown	Start	Bottom	#Months	End	#Months	#Months
-17.88%	May 2011	Sep 2011	5	Sep 2012	12	17
-11.98%	Oct 2018	Dec 2018	3	Apr 2019	4	7
-11.39%	May 2010	Jun 2010	2	Oct 2010	4	6
-10.88%	Jun 2015	Feb 2016	9	Jul 2016	5	14
-5.44%	May 2019	May 2019	1	Jun 2019	1	2
-5.17%	Feb 2018	Mar 2018	2	Aug 2018	5	7
-3.49%	Jan 2014	Jan 2014	1	Feb 2014	1	2
-2.76%	Sep 2014	Sep 2014	1	Nov 2014	2	3
-2.56%	Aug 2013	Aug 2013	1	Sep 2013	1	2
-2.50%	Dec 2014	Jan 2015	2	Feb 2015	1	3
-2.05%	Jun 2013	Jun 2013	1	Jul 2013	1	2
-1.92%	Oct 2016	Oct 2016	1	Dec 2016	2	3
-1.74%	Aug 2019	Aug 2019	1	Sep 2019	1	2
-1.67%	Jul 2014	Jul 2014	1	Aug 2014	1	2
-1.07%	Mar 2015	Mar 2015	1	Apr 2015	1	2
-0.98%	Nov 2010	Nov 2010	1	Dec 2010	1	2
-0.90%	Oct 2012	Oct 2012	1	Nov 2012	1	2
-0.86%	Jan 2020	Jan 2020	1	in progress	0	1

Worst drawdowns since December 1986.

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	Drawdown period			Recovery period		Total
Drawdown	Start	Bottom	#Months	End	#Months	#Months
-48.52%	Nov 2007	Feb 2009	16	Sep 2012	43	59
-39.01%	Apr 2000	Sep 2002	30	Jul 2005	34	64
-21.75%	Sep 1987	Nov 1987	3	Jan 1989	14	17
-16.95%	Jan 1990	Sep 1990	9	Feb 1991	5	14
-14.33%	Jul 1998	Aug 1998	2	Nov 1998	3	5
-11.98%	Oct 2018	Dec 2018	3	Apr 2019	4	7
-10.88%	Jun 2015	Feb 2016	9	Jul 2016	5	14
-5.44%	May 2019	May 2019	1	Jun 2019	1	2
-5.17%	Feb 2018	Mar 2018	2	Aug 2018	5	7
-5.09%	Feb 1994	Mar 1994	2	Aug 1994	5	7
-4.84%	Aug 1997	Aug 1997	1	Sep 1997	1	2
-4.67%	Jun 1991	Jun 1991	1	Aug 1991	2	3
-4.65%	Jan 1992	Mar 1992	3	Nov 1992	8	11
-4.52%	Oct 1997	Oct 1997	1	Feb 1998	4	5
-4.49%	Jun 1996	Jul 1996	2	Sep 1996	2	4
-4.39%	Jan 2000	Jan 2000	1	Mar 2000	2	3
-4.27%	Sep 1994	Nov 1994	3	Mar 1995	4	7
-4.22%	Nov 1993	Nov 1993	1	Jan 1994	2	3
-3.81%	Nov 1991	Nov 1991	1	Dec 1991	1	2
-3.49%	Jan 2014	Jan 2014	1	Feb 2014	1	2

Rolling Returns

Paul Farrell Second Grader's Starter Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns

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	*Return ()**			Negative Periods
Rolling Period	Average	Best	Worst	Negative Periods
1 Year	+9.27%	+53.68% Mar 2009 - Feb 2010	-41.49% Mar 2008 - Feb 2009	20.21%
2 Years	+8.85%	+36.66% Mar 2009 - Feb 2011	-23.51% Mar 2007 - Feb 2009	14.44%
3 Years	+8.60%	+23.86% Mar 2009 - Feb 2012	-14.58% Apr 2000 - Mar 2003	14.64%
5 Years	+8.39%	+20.30% Mar 2009 - Feb 2014	-3.66% Mar 2004 - Feb 2009	4.73%
7 Years	+8.31%	+16.89% Jan 1993 - Dec 1999	-0.39% Mar 2002 - Feb 2009	0.32%
10 Years	+8.02%	+14.67% Oct 1990 - Sep 2000	-0.63% Mar 1999 - Feb 2009	0.72%
15 Years	+7.46%	+10.64% Nov 1992 - Oct 2007	+4.25% Mar 1994 - Feb 2009	0.00%

* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

Yearly Returns - Monthly Returns Heatmap

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		Months
Year	Return	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
2020	-0.86%	-0.9
2019	+25.83%	7.5	2.6	1.3	3.2	-5.4	6.2	0.4	-1.7	1.9	2.3	2.6	2.9
2018	-7.40%	4.7	-4.0	-1.3	0.4	1.1	-0.2	2.9	1.5	0.2	-7.0	1.7	-6.9
2017	+21.30%	2.4	2.7	0.9	1.4	1.6	0.7	2.2	0.4	2.0	1.9	2.0	1.4
2016	+9.42%	-5.0	-0.6	6.8	1.1	0.8	0.2	3.7	0.3	0.6	-1.9	1.8	1.8
2015	-1.16%	-1.4	5.0	-1.1	1.8	0.4	-2.0	1.0	-6.0	-2.9	6.7	-0.1	-2.1
2014	+6.75%	-3.5	4.6	0.4	0.6	1.9	2.1	-1.7	2.9	-2.8	1.8	1.5	-1.1
2013	+24.11%	3.9	0.4	2.6	2.2	0.4	-2.1	5.0	-2.6	4.7	3.7	1.8	2.1
2012	+15.86%	5.2	4.2	1.5	-0.8	-7.1	4.4	0.8	2.4	2.6	-0.9	1.0	2.2
2011	-2.83%	1.5	3.1	0.2	3.5	-1.5	-1.5	-1.9	-6.0	-8.2	10.1	-1.0	0.1
2010	+14.62%	-3.7	2.5	5.8	0.9	-7.9	-3.8	7.4	-3.7	8.7	3.5	-1.0	6.5
2009	+28.98%	-8.9	-9.1	8.0	10.5	7.9	-0.4	8.0	3.2	4.4	-2.6	5.0	2.0
2008	-34.54%	-5.9	-1.6	-0.5	4.6	1.5	-7.4	-1.5	-0.5	-9.2	-17.1	-6.0	4.0
2007	+8.57%	1.4	-0.8	1.5	3.6	3.1	-0.9	-2.4	0.8	4.3	3.0	-4.0	-1.1
2006	+17.83%	4.0	-0.1	2.1	2.1	-3.3	0.0	0.4	2.3	1.5	3.4	2.7	1.7
2005	+8.70%	-1.9	2.6	-2.1	-1.8	2.4	0.9	3.6	0.3	1.8	-2.5	3.6	1.7
2004	+14.35%	2.1	1.7	-0.4	-2.5	1.0	2.0	-3.1	0.5	1.9	2.1	5.0	3.5
2003	+30.95%	-2.8	-1.5	-0.1	8.1	5.5	1.8	2.1	2.3	0.4	5.6	1.6	4.9
2002	-15.98%	-1.8	-0.7	3.7	-2.4	-0.4	-5.3	-7.8	0.6	-8.9	5.9	4.9	-3.7
2001	-11.78%	2.8	-7.9	-6.1	7.1	-0.4	-2.0	-1.5	-4.2	-8.3	2.6	5.3	1.4
2000	-9.89%	-4.4	2.5	4.6	-4.8	-2.9	4.1	-2.4	4.9	-4.2	-2.0	-7.1	2.3
1999	+23.19%	2.1	-3.1	3.9	4.4	-2.8	4.4	-1.3	-0.5	-1.1	4.9	3.3	7.4
1998	+19.50%	1.3	6.5	4.1	0.9	-2.0	2.1	-1.1	-13.4	3.5	7.6	5.4	4.9
1997	+19.31%	2.6	0.5	-2.9	2.9	6.3	4.4	5.5	-4.8	5.3	-4.5	1.9	1.4
1996	+14.34%	1.8	0.9	1.2	2.6	1.2	-0.3	-4.2	1.9	4.1	0.7	5.3	-1.4
1995	+24.48%	0.3	1.2	3.5	2.7	2.0	1.5	4.0	-0.1	2.8	-1.3	3.5	2.1
1994	+2.56%	5.0	-1.4	-3.8	1.5	0.5	-1.0	2.1	3.1	-2.1	1.8	-3.9	1.1
1993	+16.32%	0.8	1.5	4.6	1.7	2.9	-0.6	1.3	4.0	-1.0	1.4	-4.2	3.1
1992	+1.74%	-0.9	-0.3	-3.6	0.7	2.4	-2.3	1.7	0.6	0.0	-0.9	2.9	1.4
1991	+23.80%	3.6	7.5	0.4	0.8	2.4	-4.7	4.3	1.0	1.1	1.7	-3.8	8.0
1990	-10.22%	-5.5	-1.0	-1.5	-2.6	8.9	-0.3	0.1	-8.6	-6.9	3.7	1.9	2.4
1989	+22.09%	4.7	-1.0	0.6	3.5	1.3	-0.5	8.3	0.2	1.3	-2.6	2.3	2.3
1988	+18.82%	4.0	5.2	0.9	1.2	-0.9	2.2	0.1	-3.5	3.3	3.0	1.0	1.1
1987	+10.87%	11.3	3.7	4.7	2.2	0.4	1.5	2.5	4.9	-1.8	-17.2	-3.8	4.8

* Note:
Portofolio Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.

In particular, it has been used:

VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2001

VEU - Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007

BND - Vanguard Total Bond Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007