Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio vs Roger Gibson Talmud Portfolio Portfolio Comparison

Simulation Settings

Period: January 1928 - January 2026 (~98 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 January 2026

Initial Amount: 1$

Rebalancing: at every Jan 1^st

Currency: USD

Inflation: US

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Results

30 Years
(1996/02 - 2026/01)

All Data
(1928/01 - 2026/01)

Inflation Adjusted:

Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio

1.00$
Invested Capital
February 1996
10.11$
Final Capital
January 2026
8.02%
Yearly Return
7.87%
Std Deviation
-17.79%
Max Drawdown
30months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Invested Capital
February 1996
4.79$
Final Capital
January 2026
5.36%
Yearly Return
7.87%
Std Deviation
-23.47%
Max Drawdown
51months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Invested Capital
January 1928
2.91 K$
Final Capital
January 2026
8.47%
Yearly Return
8.83%
Std Deviation
-48.31%
Max Drawdown
70months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Invested Capital
January 1928
154.36$
Final Capital
January 2026
5.27%
Yearly Return
8.83%
Std Deviation
-34.73%
Max Drawdown
44months
Recovery Period

Roger Gibson Talmud Portfolio

1.00$
Invested Capital
February 1996
10.88$
Final Capital
January 2026
8.28%
Yearly Return
10.92%
Std Deviation
-40.17%
Max Drawdown
41months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Invested Capital
February 1996
5.15$
Final Capital
January 2026
5.62%
Yearly Return
10.92%
Std Deviation
-42.21%
Max Drawdown
49months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Invested Capital
January 1928
1.61 K$
Final Capital
January 2026
7.82%
Yearly Return
12.30%
Std Deviation
-57.05%
Max Drawdown
89months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Invested Capital
January 1928
85.53$
Final Capital
January 2026
4.64%
Yearly Return
12.30%
Std Deviation
-45.76%
Max Drawdown
46months
Recovery Period

As of January 2026, in the previous 30 Years, the Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio obtained a 8.02% compound annual return, with a 7.87% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -17.79% that required 30 months to be recovered.

As of January 2026, in the previous 30 Years, the Roger Gibson Talmud Portfolio obtained a 8.28% compound annual return, with a 10.92% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -40.17% that required 41 months to be recovered.

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Disclaimer: The simulations on this website are provided in good faith but should NOT be taken as investment advice. We are not liable for any errors or actions based on this information. The authors of the website are not affiliated with the portfolio creators, who are the sole owners of their intellectual property. The translation of asset allocations into ETFs is based on the interpretation of LazyPortfolioETF.com and may not exactly reflect the original intent of the portfolio creators. Content is for informational, educational, illustrative, and entertainment purposes only.

Resources & Extras

Asset Allocations and ETFs

The compared portfolios have the following asset allocations.

Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Weight (%)	Ticker	Name
20.00	IJS	iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value
20.00	VTI	Vanguard Total Stock Market
20.00	SHY	iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond
20.00	TLT	iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond
20.00	GLD	SPDR Gold Trust

Roger Gibson Talmud Portfolio

Weight (%)	Ticker	Name
33.34	VTI	Vanguard Total Stock Market
33.33	VNQ	Vanguard Real Estate
33.33	BND	Vanguard Total Bond Market

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Portfolio Returns as of Jan 31, 2026

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:

no fees or capital gain taxes.
rebalancing: at every Jan 1^st.
dividend reinvestment, when applicable.

Return Comparison

Capital Growth

30 Years
(1996/02 - 2026/01)

All Data
(1928/01 - 2026/01)

Inflation Adjusted:

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	Initial Amount $	Final Amount $	Total Return (%)	Annualized (%)
Golden Butterfly Tyler	1 $	10.11 $	910.62%	8.02%
Talmud Portfolio Roger Gibson	1 $	10.88 $	988.03%	8.28%
	Feb 1996	Jan 2026

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	Initial Amount $	Final Amount $	Total Return (%)	Annualized (%)
Golden Butterfly Tyler	1 $	4.79 $	378.59%	5.36%
Talmud Portfolio Roger Gibson	1 $	5.15 $	415.25%	5.62%
	Feb 1996	Jan 2026

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	Initial Amount $	Final Amount $	Total Return (%)	Annualized (%)
Golden Butterfly Tyler	1 $	2 913.57 $	291 257.21%	8.47%
Talmud Portfolio Roger Gibson	1 $	1 614.28 $	161 327.52%	7.82%
	Jan 1928	Jan 2026

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	Initial Amount $	Final Amount $	Total Return (%)	Annualized (%)
Golden Butterfly Tyler	1 $	154.36 $	15 336.41%	5.27%
Talmud Portfolio Roger Gibson	1 $	85.53 $	8 452.60%	4.64%
	Jan 1928	Jan 2026

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		Return (%) as of Jan 31, 2026
		YTD (1M)	1M	6M	1Y	5Y	10Y	30Y	MAX (~98Y)
	Golden Butterfly Tyler	4.10	4.10	16.94	21.19	7.89	8.76	8.02	8.47
	Talmud Portfolio Roger Gibson	1.47	1.47	5.86	8.83	6.44	7.79	8.28	7.82
Returns over 1 year are annualized.

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Portfolio Metrics as of Jan 31, 2026

The following metrics, updated as of 31 January 2026, provide an overview of performance and risk, with the best value in each row highlighted within the table.

METRIC COMPARISON

Period: 1 February 2025 - 31 January 2026 (1 year)

Period: 1 February 2021 - 31 January 2026 (5 years)

Period: 1 February 2016 - 31 January 2026 (10 years)

Period: 1 February 1996 - 31 January 2026 (30 years)

Period: 1 January 1928 - 31 January 2026 (~98 years)

1 Year

5 Years

10 Years

30 Years

All (1928/01 - 2026/01)

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	Golden Butterfly	Talmud Portfolio
Author	Tyler	Roger Gibson
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks	40%	66.67%
Fixed Income	40%	33.33%
Commodities	20%	0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%)	21.19	8.83
Infl. Adjusted (%)	18.41	6.33
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)	-0.53	-3.70
Start to Recovery (months)	3	4
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)	-0.53	-3.70
Start to Recovery (months)	3	4
Longest Negative Period (months)	3	4
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%)	5.59	5.19
Sharpe Ratio	3.06	0.91
Sortino Ratio	4.73	1.13
Ulcer Index	0.20	1.38
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation	3.79	1.70
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown	40.20	2.39
Metrics calculated over the period 1 February 2025 - 31 January 2026

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	Golden Butterfly	Talmud Portfolio
Author	Tyler	Roger Gibson
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks	40%	66.67%
Fixed Income	40%	33.33%
Commodities	20%	0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%)	7.89	6.44
Infl. Adjusted (%)	3.27	1.88
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)	-17.79	-22.88
Start to Recovery (months)	30	32
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)	-17.79	-22.88
Start to Recovery (months)	30	32
Longest Negative Period (months)	35	35
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%)	9.81	12.42
Sharpe Ratio	0.48	0.26
Sortino Ratio	0.66	0.35
Ulcer Index	6.40	9.89
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation	0.80	0.52
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown	0.44	0.28
Metrics calculated over the period 1 February 2021 - 31 January 2026

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	Golden Butterfly	Talmud Portfolio
Author	Tyler	Roger Gibson
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks	40%	66.67%
Fixed Income	40%	33.33%
Commodities	20%	0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%)	8.76	7.79
Infl. Adjusted (%)	5.35	4.41
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)	-17.79	-22.88
Start to Recovery (months)	30	32
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)	-17.79	-22.88
Start to Recovery (months)	30	32
Longest Negative Period (months)	39	35
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%)	8.64	11.37
Sharpe Ratio	0.77	0.50
Sortino Ratio	1.06	0.66
Ulcer Index	4.74	7.36
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation	1.01	0.69
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown	0.49	0.34
Metrics calculated over the period 1 February 2016 - 31 January 2026

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	Golden Butterfly	Talmud Portfolio
Author	Tyler	Roger Gibson
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks	40%	66.67%
Fixed Income	40%	33.33%
Commodities	20%	0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%)	8.02	8.28
Infl. Adjusted (%)	5.36	5.62
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)	-17.79	-40.17
Start to Recovery (months)	30	41
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)	-17.79	-40.17
Start to Recovery (months)	30	41
Longest Negative Period (months)	39	65
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%)	7.87	10.92
Sharpe Ratio	0.73	0.55
Sortino Ratio	0.99	0.71
Ulcer Index	3.58	7.45
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation	1.02	0.76
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown	0.45	0.21
Metrics calculated over the period 1 February 1996 - 31 January 2026

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	Golden Butterfly	Talmud Portfolio
Author	Tyler	Roger Gibson
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks	40%	66.67%
Fixed Income	40%	33.33%
Commodities	20%	0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%)	8.47	7.82
Infl. Adjusted (%)	5.27	4.64
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)	-48.31	-57.05
Start to Recovery (months)	70	89
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)	-23.45	-57.05
Start to Recovery (months)	71	89
Longest Negative Period (months)	72	160
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%)	8.83	12.30
Sharpe Ratio	0.58	0.36
Sortino Ratio	0.81	0.50
Ulcer Index	6.91	10.01
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation	0.96	0.64
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown	0.18	0.14
Metrics calculated over the period 1 January 1928 - 31 January 2026

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Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

DRAWDOWN COMPARISON

Period: 1 February 1996 - 31 January 2026 (30 years)

Period: 1 January 1928 - 31 January 2026 (~98 years)

30 Years
(1996/02 - 2026/01)

Chart Table

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Golden Butterfly			Talmud Portfolio
Drawdown (%)	Recovery (#Months)	From To	Drawdown (%)	Recovery (#Months)	From To
			-40.17	41	Jun 2007 Oct 2010
			-22.88	32	Jan 2022 Aug 2024
-17.79	30	Jan 2022 Jun 2024
			-15.16	7	Feb 2020 Aug 2020
-14.81	19	Mar 2008 Sep 2009
			-10.50	8	Jun 2011 Jan 2012
			-10.43	6	Jul 1998 Dec 1998
-9.44	8	May 1998 Dec 1998
			-8.26	14	Apr 2002 May 2003
			-7.57	6	Sep 2018 Feb 2019
-7.16	5	Feb 2020 Jun 2020
-6.86	12	Jun 2002 May 2003
			-6.69	5	Apr 2004 Aug 2004
-6.37	8	Sep 2018 Apr 2019
-6.25	14	Feb 2015 Mar 2016

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Golden Butterfly			Talmud Portfolio
Drawdown (%)	Recovery (#Months)	From To	Drawdown (%)	Recovery (#Months)	From To
			-57.05	89	Sep 1929 Jan 1937
-48.31	70	Sep 1929 Jun 1935
			-40.17	41	Jun 2007 Oct 2010
			-29.48	67	Aug 1937 Feb 1943
			-25.53	38	Dec 1972 Jan 1976
-23.45	71	Mar 1937 Jan 1943
			-22.88	32	Jan 2022 Aug 2024
-17.79	30	Jan 2022 Jun 2024
-17.05	22	May 1969 Feb 1971
			-15.52	17	Sep 1987 Jan 1989
			-15.49	24	Dec 1968 Nov 1970
			-15.16	7	Feb 2020 Aug 2020
-14.87	10	Apr 1974 Jan 1975
-14.81	19	Mar 2008 Sep 2009
-13.73	5	Feb 1980 Jun 1980

Rolling Returns

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the Simulation Settings.

You can explore the Rolling Returns for a single portfolio, or check the return differential, by switching on "Head To Head" toggle.

Rolling Returns Comparison

Annualized Rolling Returns Chart

Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted

Time Period: 1 January 1928 - 31 January 2026 (~98 years)

Rolling Period:

Golden Butterfly
Talmud Portfolio

Head To Head (Ptf 1 vs Ptf 2):

US Inflation Adjusted:

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Yearly Returns

For each year, the following table provides the return and intra-year drawdown. The highlighted returns represent the highest values for that specific year.

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	Golden Butterfly		Talmud Portfolio
Year	Return (%)	Drawdown (%)	Return (%)	Drawdown (%)
2026	4.10	0.00	1.47	0.00
2025	19.30	-0.53	9.14	-3.70
2024	10.73	-3.42	10.00	-4.87
2023	11.98	-8.08	14.42	-9.16
2022	-13.35	-17.79	-19.62	-22.88
2021	9.35	-2.45	21.44	-3.93
2020	13.93	-7.16	8.02	-15.16
2019	18.03	-1.83	22.79	-1.65
2018	-4.03	-6.37	-3.78	-7.57
2017	10.96	-0.32	9.90	-0.80
2016	10.82	-3.36	7.99	-4.84
2015	-3.71	-6.25	1.11	-5.69
2014	9.13	-3.27	16.24	-3.05
2013	6.26	-3.84	11.22	-4.74
2012	8.84	-2.43	12.41	-3.41
2011	8.86	-3.00	5.83	-10.50
2010	16.54	-2.77	17.33	-7.24
2009	10.77	-10.16	20.87	-18.28
2008	-4.18	-13.53	-22.37	-28.90
2007	9.58	-2.06	-1.40	-7.11
2006	12.44	-2.71	18.42	-3.01
2005	8.04	-1.76	6.88	-3.47
2004	9.88	-4.36	15.93	-6.69
2003	18.85	-2.72	23.46	-1.81
2002	3.15	-6.86	-2.82	-8.26
2001	2.71	-4.99	3.27	-5.08
2000	6.88	-3.64	9.05	-4.13
1999	4.24	-3.38	6.34	-4.64
1998	8.03	-9.44	5.18	-10.43
1997	13.09	-2.50	19.74	-1.89
1996	8.18	-2.60	19.46	-1.65
1995	21.86	-0.40	22.03	-0.94
1994	-1.98	-4.64	-3.74	-8.67
1993	14.50	-1.37	13.33	-2.90
1992	9.15	-1.58	10.28	-1.73
1991	19.14	-1.63	27.78	-2.56
1990	-2.51	-7.94	-4.26	-10.14
1989	14.78	-0.89	16.87	-1.33
1988	9.18	-1.64	12.71	-1.50
1987	5.10	-10.93	0.17	-15.52
1986	17.75	-2.42	16.28	-3.57
1985	25.09	-1.93	24.20	-2.28
1984	3.75	-4.68	12.71	-4.02
1983	11.13	-2.46	19.51	-2.63
1982	28.31	-5.34	24.41	-3.38
1981	-1.23	-8.50	3.76	-8.59
1980	15.59	-13.73	20.13	-9.71
1979	38.92	-6.53	21.82	-8.78
1978	13.30	-7.41	6.65	-7.13
1977	7.87	-1.53	6.70	-1.95
1976	20.55	-2.29	29.26	-1.67
1975	16.99	-8.68	21.49	-7.79
1974	5.51	-14.87	-14.51	-20.06
1973	7.22	-5.95	-9.74	-10.13
1972	17.32	-1.70	9.45	-2.27
1971	14.13	-3.04	10.45	-6.96
1970	8.32	-8.47	10.08	-12.17
1969	-9.95	-11.26	-1.80	-6.18
1968	14.16	-1.16	6.81	-3.69
1967	15.73	-1.53	9.72	-3.90
1966	-1.43	-6.81	-0.84	-8.95
1965	9.98	-1.26	5.52	-3.72
1964	9.63	-0.39	7.19	-1.30
1963	9.52	-1.19	8.31	-2.46
1962	-2.25	-8.47	-1.20	-12.80
1961	11.32	-1.53	9.75	-2.91
1960	4.68	-2.33	4.91	-4.48
1959	5.78	-2.67	3.73	-4.97
1958	21.04	-0.09	14.22	-2.11
1957	-1.90	-5.44	0.45	-7.30
1956	2.40	-3.74	2.62	-6.16
1955	9.05	-1.20	8.32	-3.92
1954	24.09	-1.32	18.11	-3.79
1953	-1.25	-5.95	5.28	-3.00
1952	5.01	-1.97	6.76	-3.14
1951	5.62	-3.17	8.95	-5.14
1950	15.80	-2.07	11.28	-4.60
1949	8.87	-1.60	8.15	-4.52
1948	0.60	-4.83	2.34	-7.33
1947	3.73	-2.27	8.22	-2.39
1946	-2.14	-9.34	6.18	-10.61
1945	23.40	-1.03	18.38	-3.34
1944	13.20	-0.29	13.36	-1.14
1943	18.24	-2.65	13.94	-7.79
1942	8.95	-4.55	7.12	-9.40
1941	-1.87	-5.56	-5.41	-8.93
1940	-0.80	-9.89	0.15	-15.43
1939	-0.30	-6.03	1.38	-9.87
1938	14.14	-10.34	10.63	-18.12
1937	-15.74	-17.75	-10.14	-17.27
1936	19.77	-2.63	13.80	-5.89
1935	19.44	-3.22	19.99	-8.97
1934	5.81	-5.68	4.17	-10.97
1933	45.52	-6.98	18.79	-17.83
1932	2.29	-16.27	-2.29	-28.97
1931	-20.79	-25.80	-18.11	-28.11
1930	-10.68	-16.78	-8.30	-19.91
1929	-3.62	-14.87	-3.04	-22.74
1928	13.65	-2.02	13.08	-4.68

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Table of contents

Resources & Extras

Asset Allocations and ETFs

Portfolio Returns as of Jan 31, 2026

Portfolio Metrics as of Jan 31, 2026

Drawdowns

Rolling Returns

Yearly Returns