Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns

Data Source: from January 1927 to March 2024 (~97 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 March 2024
Live Update: Apr 19 2024, 12:00PM Eastern Time
PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
0.36%
1 Day
Apr 19 2024, 12:00PM Eastern Time
2.06%
Current Month
April 2024

The Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio is a High Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 5 ETFs.

It's exposed for 40% on the Stock Market and for 20% on Commodities.

In the last 30 Years, the Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio obtained a 7.76% compound annual return, with a 7.72% standard deviation.

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Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

40% Stocks
40% Fixed Income
20% Commodities

The Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight
(%)		 Investment Themes (Orig.Currency) ETF
Ticker		 ETF
Currency		 ETF Name
20.00 Equity, U.S., Small Cap, Value (USD)
IJS
USD iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value
20.00 Equity, U.S., Large Cap (USD)
VTI
USD Vanguard Total Stock Market
20.00 Bond, U.S., Short Term (USD)
SHY
USD iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond
20.00 Bond, U.S., Long-Term (USD)
TLT
USD iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond
20.00 Commodity, Gold (USD)
GLD
USD SPDR Gold Trust

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Mar 31, 2024

The Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming: April 2024 return is calculated on the hypothesis of a newly built portfolio, with the starting asset allocation.
TYLER GOLDEN BUTTERFLY PORTFOLIO
Consolidated returns as of 31 March 2024
Live Update: Apr 19 2024, 12:00PM Eastern Time
Swipe left to see all data
  Chg (%) Return (%) Return (%) as of Mar 31, 2024
  1 Day Time ET(*) Apr 2024 1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~97Y)
Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio 0.36 -2.06 3.22 13.99 9.26 6.61 5.77 7.76 8.39
US Inflation Adjusted return 2.83 12.19 5.59 2.32 2.86 5.09 5.24
Components
IJS
USD iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value 1.09 11:57AM, Apr 19 2024 -7.03 3.38 15.84 11.55 8.54 7.75 10.46 12.80
VTI
USD Vanguard Total Stock Market -0.41 12:00PM, Apr 19 2024 -5.29 2.90 22.88 28.85 14.15 12.23 10.49 10.15
SHY
USD iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond 0.06 11:59AM, Apr 19 2024 -0.39 0.34 2.78 2.79 0.97 0.91 3.07 4.25
TLT
USD iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond 0.47 12:00PM, Apr 19 2024 -5.36 0.78 8.74 -7.84 -3.54 0.98 5.27 4.98
GLD
USD SPDR Gold Trust 0.62 12:00PM, Apr 19 2024 7.77 8.67 19.99 12.28 11.01 5.23 5.69 4.84
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1927
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Mar 2024. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 3.48% , 5Y: 4.19% , 10Y: 2.84% , 30Y: 2.54%
Live update: World Markets and Indexes

In 2023, the Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio granted a 1.98% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Capital Growth as of Mar 31, 2024

An investment of 1$, since April 1994, now would be worth 9.42$, with a total return of 841.59% (7.76% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 4.44$, with a net total return of 343.61% (5.09% annualized).
An investment of 1$, since January 1927, now would be worth 2525.98$, with a total return of 252497.96% (8.39% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 143.26$, with a net total return of 14225.64% (5.24% annualized).
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Portfolio Metrics as of Mar 31, 2024

Metrics of Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio, updated as of 31 March 2024.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
TYLER GOLDEN BUTTERFLY PORTFOLIO
Advanced Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 1927 - 31 March 2024 (~97 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of Mar 31, 2024
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
(~97Y)
Investment Return (%) 3.22 2.76 13.99 9.26 2.48 6.61 5.77 7.18 7.76 8.39
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) details 2.83 1.61 12.19 5.59 -2.98 2.32 2.86 4.47 5.09 5.24
US Inflation (%) 0.38 1.13 1.61 3.48 5.63 4.19 2.84 2.59 2.54 2.99
Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -8.07 -17.79 -17.79 -17.79 -17.79 -17.79 -48.31
Start to Recovery (# months) details 5 27* 27* 27* 27* 27* 70
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 1929 09
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 9 9 9 9 9 33
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 1932 05
Bottom to End (# months) 2 18 18 18 18 18 37
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 - - - - - 1935 06
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
same as
deepest		 -23.45
Start to Recovery (# months) details 71
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 1937 03
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 9 9 9 9 9 13
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 1938 03
Bottom to End (# months) 2 18 18 18 18 18 58
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 - - - - - 1943 01
Longest negative period (# months) details 7 33 39 39 39 39 74
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 04 2021 06 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 1927 01
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2024 02 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 1933 02
Annualized Return (%) -9.04 -0.27 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.28
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -8.94 -23.47 -23.47 -23.47 -23.47 -23.47 -34.73
Start to Recovery (# months) details 5 34* 34* 34* 34* 34* 44
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2021 06 2021 06 2021 06 2021 06 2021 06 1929 09
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 16 16 16 16 16 33
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 1932 05
Bottom to End (# months) 2 18 18 18 18 18 11
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 - - - - - 1933 04
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
same as
deepest		 -27.60
Start to Recovery (# months) details 96
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2021 06 2021 06 2021 06 2021 06 2021 06 1946 06
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 16 16 16 16 16 21
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 1948 02
Bottom to End (# months) 2 18 18 18 18 18 75
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 - - - - - 1954 05
Longest negative period (# months) details 8 36* 55 71 71 71 151
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 04 2021 04 2019 04 2017 12 2017 12 2017 12 1936 12
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 11 2024 03 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 1949 06
Annualized Return (%) -2.28 -2.98 -0.31 -0.18 -0.18 -0.18 -0.01
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Standard Deviation (%) 10.98 11.08 10.26 8.41 8.15 7.72 8.82
Sharpe Ratio 0.37 0.00 0.46 0.54 0.71 0.71 0.50
Sortino Ratio 0.54 0.00 0.64 0.76 0.96 0.95 0.70
Ulcer Index 3.14 8.18 6.46 4.90 4.12 3.58 6.94
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.84 0.22 0.64 0.69 0.88 1.00 0.95
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 1.15 0.14 0.37 0.32 0.40 0.44 0.17
% Positive Months details 58% 52% 61% 63% 65% 65% 65%
Positive Months 7 19 37 76 156 237 759
Negative Months 5 17 23 44 84 123 408
LONG TERM RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 5.77 9.19 10.44 17.05
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 4.68 4.68 2.31
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 2.86 7.18 7.89 9.91
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 1.87 1.87 0.35
ROLLING PERIODS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Over the latest 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 26.55 17.94 13.45 10.44 9.09 7.76
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -14.81 0.58 3.16 4.68 6.85
% Positive Periods 88% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 87.72 30.24 20.24 11.55 7.36 7.02
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - 2.05 4.60 5.44
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 24.39 15.18 11.16 7.89 6.69 5.09
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -20.83 -4.79 -0.14 1.87 4.16
% Positive Periods 84% 93% 99% 100% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 87.72 30.24 20.24 11.55 7.36 7.02
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - 2.05 4.60 5.44
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Over all the available data source (Jan 1927 - Mar 2024)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 72.34 24.69 20.88 17.05 13.89 12.46
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -32.17 -17.91 -6.33 2.31 4.53 5.91
% Positive Periods 82% 95% 97% 100% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 84.48 26.30 16.08 8.78 5.31 4.23
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - 0.35 1.98 2.60
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 84.55 24.38 19.68 9.91 7.73 7.37
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -24.69 -11.40 -4.33 0.35 2.36 3.19
% Positive Periods 73% 88% 95% 100% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 84.48 26.30 16.08 8.78 5.31 4.23
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - 0.35 1.98 2.60
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio.
  • Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
  • Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
  • Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
  • Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money in any case (money amount withdrawal).
    For instance: Your initial invested capital is 100.000$; withdrawal rate (annualized) is 4%. This means that, in the first month, you will withdraw 100.000 * 4% * 1/12 = 333.33$. The second month, you’ll withdraw 333.33$ plus the inflation monthly rate. You’ll continue adjusting your withdraw monthly for inflation.
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.

Talking about withdrawal rates, how would you manage your early retirement with the Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio? Read more here

Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.

Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1. If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS
Monthly correlations as of 31 March 2024
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If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

TYLER GOLDEN BUTTERFLY PORTFOLIO
Drawdown periods
Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 April 1994 - 31 March 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1927 - 31 March 2024 (~97 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
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Rolling Returns

( more details)

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

TYLER GOLDEN BUTTERFLY PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 April 1994 - 31 March 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1927 - 31 March 2024 (~97 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
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Monthly Returns

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

TYLER GOLDEN BUTTERFLY PORTFOLIO
Monthly Returns Distribution
Data Source: 1 April 1994 - 31 March 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1927 - 31 March 2024 (~97 years)
237 Positive Months (66%) - 123 Negative Months (34%)
759 Positive Months (65%) - 408 Negative Months (35%)
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(Scroll down to see all data)
Investment Returns, up to December 2004, have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
You can find additional information on extended Data Sources here.

In particular, the series derived from equivalent datasets are:
  • IJS - iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value (IJS), up to December 2000
  • VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI), up to December 2001
  • SHY - iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond (SHY), up to December 2002
  • TLT - iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT), up to December 2002
  • GLD - SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), up to December 2004

Portfolio efficiency

No other portfolio in our database granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.

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In the following table, you can compare the current portfolio with a list of famous portfolios. Metrics are calculated over the last 30 Years.

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The following portfolios share asset allocation strategy and/or similar asset weights.

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