Data Source: from January 1978 to December 2021

Last Update: 31 December 2021

The Golden Butterfly Portfolio is exposed for 40% on the Stock Market and for 20% on Commodities.

It's a High Risk portfolio and it can be replicated with 5 ETFs.

In the last 10 years, the portfolio obtained a 7.75% compound annual return, with a 6.62% standard deviation.

In the last 25 years, a 8.17% compound annual return, with a 7.44% standard deviation.

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Golden Butterfly Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

40% Stocks
40% Fixed Income
20% Commodities

The Golden Butterfly Portfolio can be replicated with the following ETFs:

Weight Ticker ETF Name Investment Themes
20.00 % IJS iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value Equity, U.S., Small Cap, Value
20.00 % VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market Equity, U.S., Large Cap
20.00 % SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond Bond, U.S., Short Term
20.00 % TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Bond, U.S., Long-Term
20.00 % GLD SPDR Gold Trust Commodity, Gold
Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns

The Golden Butterfly Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

GOLDEN BUTTERFLY PORTFOLIO RETURNS (%)
Last Update: 31 December 2021
Swipe left to see all data
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y(*) 5Y(*) 10Y(*) 20Y(*) 25Y(*)
Golden Butterfly Portfolio +1.99 +4.19 +3.07 +9.35 +13.71 +9.38 +7.75 +8.48 +8.17
--- Inflation Adjusted return +1.51 +1.94 -0.32 +2.08 +9.84 +6.28 +5.51 +6.03 +5.75
Components
IJS
iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value
+4.12 +4.30 +0.09 +30.53 +18.47 +10.04 +13.33 +9.82 +10.48
VTI
Vanguard Total Stock Market
+3.79 +9.11 +9.08 +25.67 +25.73 +17.96 +16.29 +9.91 +9.88
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond
-0.21 -0.60 -0.57 -0.72 +1.88 +1.47 +0.95 +2.17 +3.01
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond
-2.01 +3.18 +3.55 -4.60 +8.75 +6.68 +4.51 +6.76 +7.00
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust
+3.30 +4.10 +3.22 -4.15 +12.13 +9.30 +1.18 +9.51 +6.30
(*) annualized
Portfolio returns are calculated assuming:
  • a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (i.e. at every January 1st)
  • the reinvestment of dividends

Inflation is updated to Dec 2021. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 7.12% , 3Y: 3.53% , 5Y: 2.92% , 10Y: 2.12% , 20Y: 2.31% , 25Y: 2.29%

In 2021, the portfolio granted a 1.03% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Golden Butterfly Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Historical Returns

Historical returns and stats of Golden Butterfly Portfolio. Total Returns and Inflation Adjusted Returns are both mentioned.

GOLDEN BUTTERFLY PORTFOLIO
Last Update: 31 December 2021
Swipe left to see all data
Period Return
Dec 2021
update
Return
Inflation
Adjusted
Standard
Deviation(*)
Max
Drawdown
Months
Pos - Neg
1M
Dec 2021
+1.99%
+1.51%
0.00%
1 - 0
3M
+4.19%
+1.94%
-0.60%
Nov 2021 - Nov 2021
2 - 1
6M
+3.07%
-0.32%
-2.45%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
4 - 2
YTD
+9.35%
+2.08%
5.09%
-2.45%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
8 - 4
67% pos
1Y
+9.35%
+2.08%
5.09%
-2.45%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
8 - 4
67% pos
3Y
+13.71%
annualized
+9.84%
annualized
7.94%
-7.16%
Feb 2020 - Mar 2020
27 - 9
75% pos
5Y
+9.38%
annualized
+6.28%
annualized
7.05%
-7.16%
Feb 2020 - Mar 2020
44 - 16
73% pos
10Y
+7.75%
annualized
+5.51%
annualized
6.62%
-7.16%
Feb 2020 - Mar 2020
82 - 38
68% pos
20Y
+8.48%
annualized
+6.03%
annualized
7.38%
-14.81%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
162 - 78
68% pos
25Y
+8.17%
annualized
+5.75%
annualized
7.44%
-14.81%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
201 - 99
67% pos
MAX
01 Jan 1978
+10.10%
annualized
+6.40%
annualized
8.23%
-14.81%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
353 - 175
67% pos
(*)Annualized St.Dev. of monthly returns

Portfolio efficiency

Is the Golden Butterfly Portfolio actually efficient, compared to other Lazy Portfolios?

Similar portfolios, ordered by 5 Years annualized return.

These portfolios share asset allocation strategy and/or similar asset weights. Comparing their returns and drawdowns, you can get an idea of the risk you are facing implementing one of them.

5 Years Stats
% Allocation
Portfolio Return Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm.
Golden Butterfly with Bitcoin
+15.28% -7.92% 40 40 20 Compare
Golden Butterfly 2x Leveraged
+14.85% -13.21% 40 40 20 Compare
Golden Butterfly
+9.38% -7.15% 40 40 20

Best Classic Portfolios, with High Risk, ordered by 25 Years annualized return.

25 Years Stats
% Allocation
Portfolio Return Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm.
Simple Path to Wealth
JL Collins
+8.96% -38.54% 75 25 0 Compare
Yale Endowment
David Swensen
+8.94% -39.46% 70 30 0 Compare
Talmud Portfolio
Roger Gibson
+8.80% -40.18% 66.67 33.33 0 Compare
Late Sixties and Beyond
Burton Malkiel
+8.63% -41.80% 71 29 0 Compare
Lazy Portfolio
David Swensen
+8.41% -40.88% 70 30 0 Compare

See all portfolios

Our overall ratings, assigned to the Golden Butterfly Portfolio. The portfolio is classified as High Risk.

Very High Risk
Bond weight:
Less than 25%
High Risk
Bond weight:
25% - 49.99%
Medium Risk
Bond weight:
50% - 74.99%
Low Risk
Bond weight:
At least 75%
High Risk
Portfolios
All
Portfolios
25 Years Ann. Return
(Inflation Adjusted)
+8.17%
(+5.75%)
Good : 3.5 / 5
Good : 3.7 / 5
Standard Deviation
over 25 Years
7.44%
Excellent : 5 / 5
Good : 4 / 5
Maximum Drawdown
over 25 Years
-14.81%
Excellent : 5 / 5
Excellent : 4.3 / 5
Easy to manage 5 ETFs
Average : 3 / 5
Average : 3 / 5
Rating assigned considering all the High Risk Portfolios Rating assigned considering all the Portfolios in the database

Capital Growth

Time Range:

An investment of 1000$, since January 1997, now would be worth 7119.91$, with a total return of 611.99% (8.17% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 4042.86$, with a net total return of 304.29% (5.75% annualized).

Drawdowns

Time Range:

Worst drawdowns since January 1997 - Chart and Data

Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months
-14.81% Mar 2008 Feb 2009 12 Sep 2009 7 19
-9.44% May 1998 Aug 1998 4 Dec 1998 4 8
-7.16% Feb 2020 Mar 2020 2 Jun 2020 3 5
-6.86% Jun 2002 Jul 2002 2 May 2003 10 12
-6.37% Sep 2018 Dec 2018 4 Apr 2019 4 8
-6.25% Feb 2015 Sep 2015 8 Mar 2016 6 14
-4.99% Feb 2001 Mar 2001 2 Dec 2001 9 11
-4.36% Apr 2004 Apr 2004 1 Sep 2004 5 6
-3.84% Apr 2013 Jun 2013 3 Sep 2013 3 6
-3.64% Sep 2000 Nov 2000 3 Dec 2000 1 4
-3.38% Feb 1999 Feb 1999 1 Apr 1999 2 3
-3.36% Aug 2016 Oct 2016 3 Feb 2017 4 7
-3.27% Sep 2014 Sep 2014 1 Dec 2014 3 4
-3.05% Sep 2020 Oct 2020 2 Nov 2020 1 3
-3.00% Sep 2011 Sep 2011 1 Oct 2011 1 2
-2.77% May 2010 Jun 2010 2 Sep 2010 3 5
-2.71% May 2006 Jun 2006 2 Oct 2006 4 6
-2.70% Jul 1999 Aug 1999 2 Oct 1999 2 4
-2.61% Feb 2018 Feb 2018 1 Aug 2018 6 7
-2.50% Mar 1997 Mar 1997 1 May 1997 2 3

Rolling Returns ( more details)

Golden Butterfly Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns

Swipe left to see all data
Return (*) Negative
Periods
Rolling Period Average Best Worst
1 Year
+10.40% +49.49%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1983
-14.81%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
9.67%
2 Years
+10.01% +29.93%
Dec 1978 - Nov 1980
-3.82%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
1.78%
3 Years
+9.72% +22.31%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1987
+0.58%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009
0.00%
5 Years
+9.63% +20.44%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1987
+3.16%
Apr 1998 - Mar 2003
0.00%
7 Years
+9.51% +17.47%
Apr 1979 - Mar 1986
+5.12%
Apr 2013 - Mar 2020
0.00%
10 Years
+9.38% +15.57%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1988
+6.16%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
0.00%
15 Years
+9.25% +13.54%
Dec 1978 - Nov 1993
+7.09%
Mar 1994 - Feb 2009
0.00%
20 Years
+9.15% +12.90%
Apr 1978 - Mar 1998
+7.13%
Jan 1999 - Dec 2018
0.00%

* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Golden Butterfly Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

Golden Butterfly Portfolio Seasonality: in which months is it better to invest?

In the table below, the average monthly return is represented.

Below each return, it's also mentioned the probability of obtaining a positive monthly result (Win %).

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.

Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Win %
1.08
73%
0.38
61%
0.44
64%
1.25
73%
0.91
68%
0.76
55%
0.71
66%
1.04
70%
0.51
61%
0.08
57%
1.43
77%
1.43
77%
Best
Year
6.7
1980
4.8
1986
5.3
1986
7.6
1980
5.8
2003
7.1
1980
5.0
2020
10.1
1982
5.5
1979
8.4
1982
5.7
1979
8.4
1979
Worst
Year
-6.0
2009
-4.4
2009
-10.7
1980
-4.4
2004
-2.9
1984
-2.8
2013
-4.7
2002
-6.4
1998
-3.3
2014
-10.3
2008
-3.4
1978
-2.6
1981
Statistics calculated for the period Jan 1978 - Dec 2021

For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.

Monthly/Yearly Returns

Golden Butterfly Portfolio monthly and yearly returns: how is the distribution of the returns recorded so far?

MONTHLY RETURNS HISTOGRAM
353 Positive Months (67%) - 175 Negative Months (33%)
Jan 1978 - Dec 2021
Swipe left to see all data
Yearly Return(%)
Monthly Return(%)
Year Total Infl.Adj Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2021
+9.35 +2.08 -0.2 0.6 0.9 2.5 2.4 -0.3 0.4 1.0 -2.4 2.8 -0.6 2.0
2020
+13.93 +12.47 1.3 -2.0 -5.3 6.0 1.5 1.6 5.0 0.8 -2.3 -0.8 4.3 3.5
2019
+18.03 +15.42 4.9 1.3 0.3 1.3 -1.8 4.8 0.6 2.4 0.1 1.2 0.6 1.3
2018
-4.03 -5.84 1.3 -2.6 0.6 -0.2 1.9 -0.3 0.5 1.3 -1.3 -3.9 1.0 -2.3
2017
+10.96 +8.68 1.4 2.0 -0.3 1.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.4 1.6 1.0
2016
+10.82 +8.59 0.0 3.4 2.9 1.5 -0.8 3.7 2.6 -0.7 0.1 -2.7 0.0 0.7
2015
-3.71 -4.32 2.2 -0.5 -0.2 -1.0 0.1 -1.4 -0.6 -1.6 -1.2 3.1 -0.9 -1.6
2014
+9.13 +8.42 0.6 3.2 -0.2 0.1 0.6 2.5 -2.0 2.8 -3.3 2.0 1.2 1.4
2013
+6.26 +4.68 1.4 -0.1 1.8 -0.1 -1.0 -2.8 3.6 -1.0 1.8 2.1 0.4 0.1
2012
+8.84 +6.96 4.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 -2.4 1.8 1.0 2.1 1.6 -1.5 0.7 0.1
2011
+8.86 +5.62 -1.5 3.1 0.8 3.1 -0.2 -1.6 1.6 1.9 -3.0 4.7 0.9 -1.0
2010
+16.54 +14.89 -0.8 2.2 2.3 3.7 -1.8 -1.0 1.3 0.5 4.1 1.4 0.7 2.9
2009
+10.77 +7.73 -6.0 -4.4 3.1 3.3 2.8 -0.7 4.5 2.0 3.5 -1.5 5.0 -0.5
2008
-4.18 -4.16 0.9 0.2 -0.9 -0.2 0.7 -1.7 0.1 -0.2 -1.3 -10.3 2.9 6.6
2007
+9.58 +5.25 1.1 0.8 -0.1 1.8 0.7 -1.3 -0.8 1.3 3.1 2.5 -1.3 1.2
2006
+12.44 +9.68 4.1 0.1 1.3 2.3 -1.9 -0.8 0.6 1.4 0.1 2.4 3.0 -0.6
2005
+8.04 +4.55 -1.2 1.2 -1.3 -0.3 1.9 2.2 0.9 0.5 0.8 -1.8 3.3 1.5
2004
+9.88 +6.33 0.6 1.2 1.8 -4.4 0.8 1.9 -1.6 1.8 1.9 1.4 3.5 0.8
2003
+18.85 +16.48 -0.3 -1.5 -0.9 3.7 5.8 -0.2 -0.1 3.0 0.9 2.5 2.0 2.8
2002
+3.15 +0.65 1.0 1.0 1.8 1.5 0.4 -2.2 -4.7 1.8 -1.1 0.4 1.7 1.9
2001
+2.71 +1.09 1.9 -2.1 -2.9 2.7 1.3 0.6 0.3 -0.2 -2.7 1.5 1.2 1.4
2000
+6.88 +3.33 -2.2 2.9 1.5 -1.1 -1.2 3.3 -0.3 3.3 -1.2 -0.4 -2.1 4.5
1999
+4.24 +1.52 0.6 -3.4 0.3 3.2 -1.3 1.7 -1.5 -1.2 2.6 0.9 0.6 1.9
1998
+8.03 +6.33 1.4 2.3 2.4 1.2 -2.1 1.4 -2.5 -6.4 4.8 1.7 2.4 1.7
1997
+13.09 +11.20 0.3 0.8 -2.5 1.4 3.8 2.0 3.8 -0.9 3.9 -1.8 0.5 1.2
1996
+8.18 +4.65 1.7 -0.6 0.1 0.5 1.2 -0.4 -2.2 1.6 2.1 1.4 3.0 -0.4
1995
+21.86 +18.85 0.9 2.7 1.9 1.5 2.8 1.9 1.4 1.3 1.7 -0.4 2.7 1.6
1994
-1.98 -4.47 1.2 -1.4 -2.4 -0.6 0.6 -0.9 1.6 1.7 -0.7 -0.4 -1.6 1.1
1993
+14.50 +11.37 1.8 1.1 1.9 0.2 2.4 1.4 1.8 0.9 -0.4 1.5 -1.4 2.5
1992
+9.15 +6.01 0.7 1.4 -1.6 0.0 1.3 0.0 3.5 -1.4 1.6 -0.5 1.9 2.0
1991
+19.14 +15.69 1.8 3.4 1.6 1.1 2.0 -1.6 2.1 1.7 0.7 1.2 -1.4 5.1
1990
-2.51 -8.25 -2.9 0.4 -1.1 -2.0 3.8 -0.2 0.4 -3.9 -0.9 -1.8 3.8 2.0
1989
+14.78 +9.69 2.0 -0.9 1.1 2.5 1.8 2.0 3.0 0.0 0.3 -0.4 2.3 0.1
1988
+9.18 +4.56 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.1 -0.3 2.7 -0.5 -1.1 1.2 1.8 -0.9 1.0
1987
+5.10 +0.73 5.5 2.7 1.5 -0.5 -0.2 2.0 2.5 0.9 -1.2 -9.2 -0.7 2.4
1986
+17.75 +16.37 2.1 4.8 5.3 0.2 1.2 2.6 -2.4 4.8 -1.5 0.4 0.4 -1.1
1985
+25.09 +20.52 4.6 -1.4 3.4 0.4 3.8 1.8 0.8 1.0 -1.9 2.7 4.2 3.5
1984
+3.75 -0.28 0.0 -0.9 -0.1 -0.8 -2.9 0.8 -0.8 5.5 1.1 1.4 0.3 0.4
1983
+11.13 +7.08 3.0 -0.7 2.1 5.0 0.8 0.9 -1.4 -0.5 2.2 -2.5 3.1 -1.1
1982
+28.31 +23.58 -1.7 -2.1 -1.6 5.3 -2.1 -1.9 2.6 10.1 2.6 8.4 4.2 2.4
1981
-1.23 -9.31 -3.5 -0.7 4.6 -2.0 2.1 -1.8 -2.0 -2.6 -2.4 5.1 5.1 -2.6
1980
+15.59 +2.88 6.7 -3.4 -10.7 7.6 5.4 7.1 0.2 0.8 1.7 -1.0 2.7 -0.9
1979
+38.92 +22.66 4.1 0.2 2.6 1.1 2.7 3.5 2.4 4.2 5.5 -6.5 5.7 8.4
1978
+13.30 +3.96 -0.4 1.0 1.9 1.8 3.1 -0.2 4.6 4.0 0.4 -4.2 -3.4 4.2

* Note:
Portofolio Returns, up to December 2004, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.

In particular, it has been used:

  • IJS - iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value: simulated historical serie, up to December 2000
  • VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2001
  • SHY - iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2002
  • TLT - iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2002
  • GLD - SPDR Gold Trust: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
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