Data Source: from January 1994 to December 2021

Last Update: 31 December 2021

The Roger Gibson Talmud Portfolio is exposed for 66.67% on the Stock Market.

It's a High Risk portfolio and it can be replicated with 3 ETFs.

In the last 10 years, the portfolio obtained a 10.45% compound annual return, with a 9.12% standard deviation.

In the last 25 years, a 8.80% compound annual return, with a 10.69% standard deviation.

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Roger Gibson Talmud Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

66.67% Stocks
33.33% Fixed Income
0% Commodities

The Roger Gibson Talmud Portfolio can be replicated with the following ETFs:

Weight Ticker ETF Name Investment Themes
33.34 % VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market Equity, U.S., Large Cap
33.33 % VNQ Vanguard Real Estate Real Estate, U.S.
33.33 % BND Vanguard Total Bond Market Bond, U.S., All-Term
Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns

The Roger Gibson Talmud Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

ROGER GIBSON TALMUD PORTFOLIO RETURNS (%)
Last Update: 31 December 2021
Swipe left to see all data
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y(*) 5Y(*) 10Y(*) 20Y(*) 25Y(*)
Roger Gibson Talmud Portfolio +4.80 +8.59 +8.81 +21.44 +17.22 +11.24 +10.45 +8.86 +8.80
--- Inflation Adjusted return +4.31 +6.24 +5.23 +13.37 +13.23 +8.08 +8.16 +6.40 +6.37
Components
VTI
Vanguard Total Stock Market
+3.79 +9.11 +9.08 +25.67 +25.73 +17.96 +16.29 +9.91 +9.88
VNQ
Vanguard Real Estate
+9.69 +15.03 +15.74 +40.52 +19.96 +11.22 +11.50 +10.89 +9.94
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
-0.31 -0.04 -0.08 -1.86 +4.78 +3.54 +2.75 +4.09 +4.73
(*) annualized
Portfolio returns are calculated assuming:
  • a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (i.e. at every January 1st)
  • the reinvestment of dividends

Inflation is updated to Dec 2021. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 7.12% , 3Y: 3.53% , 5Y: 2.92% , 10Y: 2.12% , 20Y: 2.31% , 25Y: 2.29%

In 2021, the portfolio granted a 2.37% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Roger Gibson Talmud Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Historical Returns

Historical returns and stats of Roger Gibson Talmud Portfolio. Total Returns and Inflation Adjusted Returns are both mentioned.

ROGER GIBSON TALMUD PORTFOLIO
Last Update: 31 December 2021
Swipe left to see all data
Period Return
Dec 2021
update
Return
Inflation
Adjusted
Standard
Deviation(*)
Max
Drawdown
Months
Pos - Neg
1M
Dec 2021
+4.80%
+4.31%
0.00%
1 - 0
3M
+8.59%
+6.24%
-1.24%
Nov 2021 - Nov 2021
2 - 1
6M
+8.81%
+5.23%
-3.93%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
4 - 2
YTD
+21.44%
+13.37%
8.77%
-3.93%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
9 - 3
75% pos
1Y
+21.44%
+13.37%
8.77%
-3.93%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
9 - 3
75% pos
3Y
+17.22%
annualized
+13.23%
annualized
11.91%
-15.16%
Feb 2020 - Mar 2020
28 - 8
78% pos
5Y
+11.24%
annualized
+8.08%
annualized
10.39%
-15.16%
Feb 2020 - Mar 2020
46 - 14
77% pos
10Y
+10.45%
annualized
+8.16%
annualized
9.12%
-15.16%
Feb 2020 - Mar 2020
88 - 32
73% pos
20Y
+8.86%
annualized
+6.40%
annualized
11.17%
-40.17%
Jun 2007 - Feb 2009
165 - 75
69% pos
25Y
+8.80%
annualized
+6.37%
annualized
10.69%
-40.17%
Jun 2007 - Feb 2009
202 - 98
67% pos
MAX
01 Jan 1994
+9.14%
annualized
+6.63%
annualized
10.33%
-40.17%
Jun 2007 - Feb 2009
229 - 107
68% pos
(*)Annualized St.Dev. of monthly returns

Portfolio efficiency

Is the Roger Gibson Talmud Portfolio actually efficient, compared to other Lazy Portfolios?

Similar portfolios, ordered by 5 Years annualized return.

These portfolios share asset allocation strategy and/or similar asset weights. Comparing their returns and drawdowns, you can get an idea of the risk you are facing implementing one of them.

5 Years Stats
% Allocation
Portfolio Return Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm.
Talmud Portfolio 2x Leveraged
Roger Gibson
+19.34% -25.50% 66.67 33.33 0 Compare
Talmud Portfolio
Roger Gibson
+11.24% -15.15% 66.67 33.33 0

Best Classic Portfolios, with High Risk, ordered by 25 Years annualized return.

25 Years Stats
% Allocation
Portfolio Return Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm.
Simple Path to Wealth
JL Collins
+8.96% -38.54% 75 25 0 Compare
Yale Endowment
David Swensen
+8.94% -39.46% 70 30 0 Compare
Talmud Portfolio
Roger Gibson
+8.80% -40.18% 66.67 33.33 0
Late Sixties and Beyond
Burton Malkiel
+8.63% -41.80% 71 29 0 Compare
Lazy Portfolio
David Swensen
+8.41% -40.88% 70 30 0 Compare

See all portfolios

Our overall ratings, assigned to the Roger Gibson Talmud Portfolio. The portfolio is classified as High Risk.

Very High Risk
Bond weight:
Less than 25%
High Risk
Bond weight:
25% - 49.99%
Medium Risk
Bond weight:
50% - 74.99%
Low Risk
Bond weight:
At least 75%
High Risk
Portfolios
All
Portfolios
25 Years Ann. Return
(Inflation Adjusted)
+8.80%
(+6.37%)
Excellent : 4.4 / 5
Excellent : 4.1 / 5
Standard Deviation
over 25 Years
10.69%
Average : 2.3 / 5
Good : 3.2 / 5
Maximum Drawdown
over 25 Years
-40.17%
Poor : 1 / 5
Average : 2.4 / 5
Easy to manage 3 ETFs
Good : 4 / 5
Good : 4 / 5
Rating assigned considering all the High Risk Portfolios Rating assigned considering all the Portfolios in the database

Capital Growth

Time Range:

An investment of 1000$, since January 1997, now would be worth 8243.79$, with a total return of 724.38% (8.80% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 4681.03$, with a net total return of 368.10% (6.37% annualized).

Drawdowns

Time Range:

Worst drawdowns since January 1997 - Chart and Data

Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months
-40.17% Jun 2007 Feb 2009 21 Oct 2010 20 41
-15.16% Feb 2020 Mar 2020 2 Aug 2020 5 7
-10.50% Jun 2011 Sep 2011 4 Jan 2012 4 8
-10.43% Jul 1998 Aug 1998 2 Dec 1998 4 6
-8.26% Apr 2002 Oct 2002 7 May 2003 7 14
-7.57% Sep 2018 Dec 2018 4 Feb 2019 2 6
-6.69% Apr 2004 Apr 2004 1 Aug 2004 4 5
-5.69% Apr 2015 Aug 2015 5 Mar 2016 7 12
-5.08% Feb 2001 Mar 2001 2 Jun 2001 3 5
-4.84% Aug 2016 Oct 2016 3 Feb 2017 4 7
-4.74% May 2013 Aug 2013 4 Oct 2013 2 6
-4.64% Jul 1999 Sep 1999 3 Dec 1999 3 6
-4.34% Jul 2001 Sep 2001 3 Dec 2001 3 6
-4.20% Jan 2018 Feb 2018 2 Jun 2018 4 6
-4.13% Sep 2000 Nov 2000 3 Jan 2001 2 5
-3.93% Sep 2021 Sep 2021 1 Oct 2021 1 2
-3.81% Sep 2020 Oct 2020 2 Nov 2020 1 3
-3.47% Jan 2005 Jan 2005 1 May 2005 4 5
-3.41% May 2012 May 2012 1 Jul 2012 2 3
-3.05% Sep 2014 Sep 2014 1 Oct 2014 1 2

Rolling Returns ( more details)

Roger Gibson Talmud Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns

Swipe left to see all data
Return (*) Negative
Periods
Rolling Period Average Best Worst
1 Year
+9.79% +50.23%
Apr 2009 - Mar 2010
-34.12%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
12.92%
2 Years
+9.26% +34.84%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011
-21.88%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
7.35%
3 Years
+9.02% +24.51%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2012
-10.82%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009
7.64%
5 Years
+8.56% +19.10%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2014
-2.47%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009
1.08%
7 Years
+8.40% +15.12%
Apr 2009 - Mar 2016
+1.35%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
0.00%
10 Years
+8.40% +12.85%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2019
+2.98%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
0.00%
15 Years
+7.98% +9.16%
May 1995 - Apr 2010
+5.75%
Mar 1994 - Feb 2009
0.00%
20 Years
+8.37% +9.91%
Dec 1994 - Nov 2014
+7.05%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
0.00%

* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Roger Gibson Talmud Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

Roger Gibson Talmud Portfolio Seasonality: in which months is it better to invest?

In the table below, the average monthly return is represented.

Below each return, it's also mentioned the probability of obtaining a positive monthly result (Win %).

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.

Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Win %
0.55
64%
-0.04
68%
0.85
71%
1.79
75%
0.68
71%
0.53
68%
1.21
71%
0.38
64%
0.19
57%
0.32
57%
1.05
68%
1.79
82%
Best
Year
7.2
2019
3.5
2014
6.0
2016
12.2
2009
4.4
2003
3.6
1997
6.5
2009
6.2
2009
5.5
1997
8.2
2011
7.4
2020
7.0
2008
Worst
Year
-9.2
2009
-10.0
2009
-11.2
2020
-6.7
2004
-4.2
2010
-6.3
2008
-4.2
2002
-7.8
1998
-5.9
2011
-17.5
2008
-7.4
2008
-5.2
2018
Statistics calculated for the period Jan 1994 - Dec 2021

For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.

Monthly/Yearly Returns

Roger Gibson Talmud Portfolio monthly and yearly returns: how is the distribution of the returns recorded so far?

MONTHLY RETURNS HISTOGRAM
229 Positive Months (68%) - 107 Negative Months (32%)
Jan 1994 - Dec 2021
Swipe left to see all data
Yearly Return(%)
Monthly Return(%)
Year Total Infl.Adj Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2021
+21.44 +13.37 -0.4 1.7 2.6 4.7 0.5 2.1 2.5 1.7 -3.9 4.9 -1.2 4.8
2020
+8.02 +6.64 1.0 -4.4 -11.2 7.8 2.5 1.7 3.5 2.2 -2.1 -1.8 7.4 2.6
2019
+22.79 +20.08 7.2 1.4 2.5 1.3 -1.7 3.3 1.1 1.4 1.1 1.2 0.8 1.2
2018
-3.78 -5.60 -0.1 -4.1 0.7 0.1 2.3 1.6 1.3 2.3 -1.0 -3.9 2.4 -5.2
2017
+9.90 +7.64 0.6 2.6 -0.8 0.7 0.3 1.1 1.2 0.2 0.7 0.4 1.9 0.5
2016
+7.99 +5.82 -2.7 0.2 6.0 -0.5 1.3 3.1 3.0 -1.4 -0.5 -3.0 0.1 2.4
2015
+1.11 +0.47 2.2 0.1 0.4 -1.9 0.2 -2.5 2.7 -4.2 0.3 4.5 -0.1 -0.2
2014
+16.24 +15.49 0.9 3.5 0.3 1.4 1.9 1.3 -0.7 2.8 -3.0 4.6 1.8 0.7
2013
+11.22 +9.56 2.8 1.0 2.3 3.2 -1.8 -1.7 2.5 -3.7 2.9 3.3 -0.8 0.9
2012
+12.41 +10.47 4.0 1.0 2.6 1.1 -3.4 3.3 1.4 0.9 0.3 -1.0 0.3 1.4
2011
+5.83 +2.69 1.8 2.9 -0.5 3.4 0.5 -1.9 0.3 -3.4 -5.9 8.2 -1.4 2.3
2010
+17.33 +15.67 -2.6 3.1 5.4 3.5 -4.2 -3.2 5.8 -1.4 4.4 3.1 -0.7 3.6
2009
+20.87 +17.56 -9.2 -10.0 4.2 12.2 2.9 -0.7 6.5 6.2 4.0 -2.4 4.6 3.1
2008
-22.37 -22.36 -1.9 -1.8 2.0 3.6 0.2 -6.3 0.9 1.6 -3.0 -17.5 -7.4 7.0
2007
-1.40 -5.29 3.5 -1.0 -0.3 1.5 0.9 -3.7 -3.5 3.0 2.8 1.6 -3.9 -1.8
2006
+18.42 +15.50 3.6 0.8 2.0 -1.0 -2.1 1.8 1.8 2.5 1.7 3.6 2.9 -0.5
2005
+6.88 +3.43 -3.5 1.5 -1.4 1.6 2.8 2.0 3.5 -1.4 0.4 -2.0 3.1 0.3
2004
+15.93 +12.18 2.6 1.4 1.8 -6.7 2.6 1.8 -0.7 3.3 0.5 2.8 2.8 3.2
2003
+23.46 +21.00 -1.8 0.5 0.9 4.4 4.4 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.6 2.3 2.1 2.8
2002
-2.82 -5.17 -0.1 0.4 2.8 -0.7 0.3 -1.0 -4.2 0.9 -3.6 -0.1 3.2 -0.4
2001
+3.27 +1.64 2.0 -3.5 -1.7 3.1 1.3 1.7 -0.5 -0.2 -3.7 0.1 3.6 1.2
2000
+9.05 +5.43 -1.2 0.7 3.5 0.3 -0.8 3.0 2.8 1.1 -0.2 -2.2 -1.8 3.7
1999
+6.34 +3.57 0.7 -2.4 1.4 4.8 -0.3 0.9 -2.2 -0.7 -1.8 1.6 0.8 3.6
1998
+5.18 +3.51 0.2 1.9 2.7 -0.5 -0.9 1.5 -2.9 -7.8 4.7 1.9 2.9 2.1
1997
+19.74 +17.74 2.0 -0.1 -1.7 1.0 3.7 3.6 4.6 -1.9 5.5 -1.7 1.9 1.8
1996
+19.46 +15.56 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.6 1.6 0.7 -1.6 2.2 3.1 2.0 4.4 3.0
1995
+22.03 +19.02 0.4 2.6 1.1 1.2 3.8 1.9 1.7 1.0 2.2 -0.9 2.4 2.8
1994
-3.74 -6.18 2.2 -1.5 -4.1 -0.1 0.1 -1.8 1.7 2.1 -2.2 -0.8 -2.4 3.1

* Note:
Portofolio Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.

In particular, it has been used:

  • VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2001
  • VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
  • BND - Vanguard Total Bond Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
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