Data Source: from January 1994 to September 2021
Last Update: 30 September 2021
The Roger Gibson Talmud Portfolio is exposed for 66.67% on the Stock Market.
It's a High Risk portfolio and it can be replicated with 3 ETFs.
In the last 10 years, the portfolio obtained a 10.51% compound annual return, with a 9.25% standard deviation.
In the last 25 years, a 8.85% compound annual return, with a 10.66% standard deviation.
In 2020, the portfolio granted a 2.63% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Roger Gibson Talmud Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.
Asset Allocation and ETFs
The Roger Gibson Talmud Portfolio has the following asset allocation:
The Roger Gibson Talmud Portfolio can be replicated with the following ETFs:
| Weight | Ticker | ETF Name | Investment Themes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33.34 % | VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market | Equity, U.S., Large Cap | |
| 33.33 % | VNQ | Vanguard Real Estate | Real Estate, U.S. | |
| 33.33 % | BND | Vanguard Total Bond Market | Bond, U.S., All-Term |
Portfolio and ETF Returns
The Roger Gibson Talmud Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y(*) | 5Y(*) | 10Y(*) | 20Y(*) | 25Y(*) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Gibson Talmud Portfolio | -3.93 | +0.20 | +7.64 | +20.99 | +11.46 | +9.29 | +10.51 | +8.68 | +8.85 |
| Components | |||||||||
|
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market |
-4.46 | -0.03 | +8.10 | +32.16 | +16.05 | +16.88 | +16.60 | +10.07 | +9.79 |
|
VNQ Vanguard Real Estate |
-5.68 | +0.62 | +12.29 | +33.49 | +11.96 | +7.52 | +11.52 | +10.37 | +10.07 |
|
BND Vanguard Total Bond Market |
-1.01 | -0.05 | +1.88 | -1.04 | +5.36 | +2.88 | +2.88 | +4.09 | +4.86 |
- a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (i.e. at every January 1st)
- the reinvestment of dividends
If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Roger Gibson Talmud Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.
Historical Returns
Roger Gibson Talmud Portfolio - Historical returns and stats.
| Period | Returns Sep 2021 |
Standard Deviation * |
Max Drawdown |
Months Pos - Neg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1M
|
-3.93%
|
-3.93%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
0 - 1 | |
|
3M
|
+0.20%
|
-3.93%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
2 - 1 | |
|
6M
|
+7.64%
|
-3.93%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
5 - 1 | |
|
YTD
|
+11.83%
|
-3.93%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
7 - 2 | |
|
1Y
|
+20.99%
|
9.65%
|
-3.93%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
9 - 3 |
|
3Y
|
+11.46%
annualized
|
12.39%
|
-15.15%
Feb 2020 - Mar 2020
|
27 - 9 |
|
5Y
|
+9.29%
annualized
|
10.21%
|
-15.15%
Feb 2020 - Mar 2020
|
46 - 14 |
|
10Y
|
+10.51%
annualized
|
9.25%
|
-15.15%
Feb 2020 - Mar 2020
|
88 - 32 |
|
20Y
|
+8.68%
annualized
|
11.10%
|
-40.18%
Jun 2007 - Feb 2009
|
166 - 74 |
|
25Y
|
+8.85%
annualized
|
10.66%
|
-40.18%
Jun 2007 - Feb 2009
|
203 - 97 |
|
MAX
01 Jan 1994
|
+8.90%
annualized
|
10.31%
|
-40.18%
Jun 2007 - Feb 2009
|
227 - 106 |
Best Classic Portfolios, with High Risk, ordered by 25 Years annualized return.
25 Years Stats |
% Allocation |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | Return▾ | Drawdown | Stocks | Bonds | Comm. | ||
| Yale Endowment David Swensen |
+8.94% | -39.46% | 70 | 30 | 0 | Compare | |
| Simple Path to Wealth JL Collins |
+8.92% | -38.54% | 75 | 25 | 0 | Compare | |
| Talmud Portfolio Roger Gibson |
+8.85% | -40.18% | 66.67 | 33.33 | 0 | ||
| Late Sixties and Beyond Burton Malkiel |
+8.64% | -41.80% | 71 | 29 | 0 | Compare | |
| Lazy Portfolio David Swensen |
+8.43% | -40.88% | 70 | 30 | 0 | Compare | |
Capital Growth
Drawdowns
Rolling Returns ( more details)
Roger Gibson Talmud Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns
| Return (*) | Negative Periods |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rolling Period | Average | Best | Worst | |
| 1 Year |
+9.67% |
+50.23% Apr 2009 - Mar 2010 |
-34.12% Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 |
13.04% |
| 2 Years |
+9.22% |
+34.84% Mar 2009 - Feb 2011 |
-21.88% Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
7.42% |
| 3 Years |
+8.96% |
+24.52% Mar 2009 - Feb 2012 |
-10.81% Mar 2006 - Feb 2009 |
7.72% |
| 5 Years |
+8.54% |
+19.10% Mar 2009 - Feb 2014 |
-2.47% Mar 2004 - Feb 2009 |
1.09% |
| 7 Years |
+8.39% |
+15.12% Apr 2009 - Mar 2016 |
+1.35% Mar 2002 - Feb 2009 |
0.00% |
| 10 Years |
+8.38% |
+12.85% Mar 2009 - Feb 2019 |
+2.98% Mar 1999 - Feb 2009 |
0.00% |
| 15 Years |
+7.99% |
+9.16% May 1995 - Apr 2010 |
+5.75% Mar 1994 - Feb 2009 |
0.00% |
| 20 Years |
+8.36% |
+9.91% Dec 1994 - Nov 2014 |
+7.05% Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 |
0.00% |
* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods
If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Roger Gibson Talmud Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.
Seasonality and Yearly/Monthly Returns
Roger Gibson Talmud Portfolio Seasonality: in which months is it better to invest?
In the table below, the average monthly return is represented.
Below each return, it's also mentioned the probability of obtaining a positive monthly result (Win %).
Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
| Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Average Win % |
0.56 64% |
-0.04 68% |
0.85 71% |
1.79 75% |
0.68 71% |
0.53 68% |
1.21 71% |
0.38 64% |
0.19 57% |
0.15 56% |
1.14 70% |
1.68 81% |
| Best Year |
7.2 2019 |
3.5 2014 |
6.1 2016 |
12.2 2009 |
4.4 2003 |
3.6 1997 |
6.5 2009 |
6.2 2009 |
5.5 1997 |
8.2 2011 |
7.4 2020 |
7.0 2008 |
| Worst Year |
-9.2 2009 |
-10.0 2009 |
-11.2 2020 |
-6.7 2004 |
-4.2 2010 |
-6.3 2008 |
-4.2 2002 |
-7.8 1998 |
-5.9 2011 |
-17.5 2008 |
-7.4 2008 |
-5.2 2018 |
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Monthly Returns of Roger Gibson Talmud Portfolio
| Months | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Return | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| 2021 |
+11.83% | -0.4 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.7 | -3.9 | |||
| 2020 |
+8.02% | 1.1 | -4.4 | -11.2 | 7.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 2.2 | -2.1 | -1.8 | 7.4 | 2.6 |
| 2019 |
+22.79% | 7.2 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | -1.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| 2018 |
-3.78% | -0.1 | -4.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 2.3 | -1.0 | -3.9 | 2.4 | -5.2 |
| 2017 |
+9.90% | 0.6 | 2.6 | -0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2016 |
+7.99% | -2.7 | 0.2 | 6.1 | -0.5 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 3.0 | -1.4 | -0.5 | -3.0 | 0.1 | 2.4 |
| 2015 |
+1.11% | 2.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | -1.9 | 0.2 | -2.5 | 2.7 | -4.2 | 0.3 | 4.5 | -0.1 | -0.2 |
| 2014 |
+16.24% | 0.9 | 3.5 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | -0.7 | 2.8 | -3.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 2013 |
+11.22% | 2.8 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 3.2 | -1.9 | -1.7 | 2.5 | -3.7 | 2.9 | 3.3 | -0.8 | 0.9 |
| 2012 |
+12.41% | 4.0 | 1.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | -3.4 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | -1.0 | 0.3 | 1.4 |
| 2011 |
+5.83% | 1.8 | 2.9 | -0.5 | 3.4 | 0.5 | -1.9 | 0.3 | -3.4 | -5.9 | 8.2 | -1.4 | 2.3 |
| 2010 |
+17.33% | -2.6 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 3.6 | -4.2 | -3.2 | 5.8 | -1.4 | 4.5 | 3.1 | -0.7 | 3.6 |
| 2009 |
+20.87% | -9.2 | -10.0 | 4.2 | 12.2 | 2.9 | -0.7 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 4.0 | -2.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 |
| 2008 |
-22.37% | -1.9 | -1.8 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 0.2 | -6.3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | -3.1 | -17.5 | -7.4 | 7.0 |
| 2007 |
-1.40% | 3.5 | -1.0 | -0.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | -3.7 | -3.5 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.6 | -3.9 | -1.8 |
| 2006 |
+18.42% | 3.6 | 0.8 | 2.0 | -1.0 | -2.1 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 2.9 | -0.5 |
| 2005 |
+6.88% | -3.5 | 1.5 | -1.4 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 3.5 | -1.4 | 0.4 | -2.0 | 3.1 | 0.3 |
| 2004 |
+15.93% | 2.6 | 1.4 | 1.8 | -6.7 | 2.6 | 1.8 | -0.7 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 3.2 |
| 2003 |
+23.46% | -1.8 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.8 |
| 2002 |
-2.82% | -0.1 | 0.4 | 2.8 | -0.7 | 0.3 | -1.0 | -4.2 | 0.9 | -3.6 | -0.1 | 3.2 | -0.4 |
| 2001 |
+3.27% | 2.0 | -3.5 | -1.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 1.7 | -0.5 | -0.2 | -3.7 | 0.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 |
| 2000 |
+9.05% | -1.3 | 0.7 | 3.5 | 0.3 | -0.8 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 | -0.2 | -2.2 | -1.9 | 3.7 |
| 1999 |
+6.34% | 0.7 | -2.4 | 1.4 | 4.8 | -0.3 | 0.9 | -2.2 | -0.7 | -1.8 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 3.6 |
| 1998 |
+5.18% | 0.2 | 1.9 | 2.7 | -0.5 | -0.9 | 1.5 | -2.9 | -7.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.1 |
| 1997 |
+19.74% | 2.0 | -0.1 | -1.7 | 1.0 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 4.6 | -1.9 | 5.5 | -1.7 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| 1996 |
+19.46% | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | -1.7 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 3.0 |
| 1995 |
+22.03% | 0.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 2.2 | -0.9 | 2.4 | 2.8 |
| 1994 |
-3.74% | 2.2 | -1.5 | -4.1 | -0.1 | 0.1 | -1.8 | 1.8 | 2.1 | -2.2 | -0.8 | -2.4 | 3.1 |
* Note: Portofolio Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
In particular, it has been used:
- VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2001
- VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
- BND - Vanguard Total Bond Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007