Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio vs Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Aggressive Portfolio Portfolio Comparison

Simulation Settings
Period: January 1985 - June 2025 (~41 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 June 2025
Initial Amount: 1$
Rebalancing: at every Jan 1st
Currency: USD
Inflation: US
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Results
30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)
All Data
(1985/01 - 2025/06)
Inflation Adjusted:
Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio
1.00$
Invested Capital
July 1995
9.21$
Final Capital
June 2025
7.68%
Yearly Return
11.83%
Std Deviation
-40.40%
Max Drawdown
40months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Invested Capital
July 1995
4.38$
Final Capital
June 2025
5.05%
Yearly Return
11.83%
Std Deviation
-41.38%
Max Drawdown
63months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Invested Capital
January 1985
35.71$
Final Capital
June 2025
9.23%
Yearly Return
11.66%
Std Deviation
-40.40%
Max Drawdown
40months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Invested Capital
January 1985
11.75$
Final Capital
June 2025
6.27%
Yearly Return
11.66%
Std Deviation
-41.38%
Max Drawdown
63months
Recovery Period
Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Aggressive Portfolio
1.00$
Invested Capital
July 1995
10.54$
Final Capital
June 2025
8.17%
Yearly Return
11.17%
Std Deviation
-38.23%
Max Drawdown
38months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Invested Capital
July 1995
5.01$
Final Capital
June 2025
5.52%
Yearly Return
11.17%
Std Deviation
-39.25%
Max Drawdown
42months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Invested Capital
January 1985
47.17$
Final Capital
June 2025
9.98%
Yearly Return
11.23%
Std Deviation
-38.23%
Max Drawdown
38months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Invested Capital
January 1985
15.52$
Final Capital
June 2025
7.00%
Yearly Return
11.23%
Std Deviation
-39.25%
Max Drawdown
42months
Recovery Period

As of June 2025, in the previous 30 Years, the Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio obtained a 7.68% compound annual return, with a 11.83% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -40.40% that required 40 months to be recovered.

As of June 2025, in the previous 30 Years, the Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Aggressive Portfolio obtained a 8.17% compound annual return, with a 11.17% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -38.23% that required 38 months to be recovered.

Disclaimer: The simulations on this website are provided in good faith but should NOT be taken as investment advice. We are not liable for any errors or actions based on this information. The authors of the website are not affiliated with the portfolio creators, who are the sole owners of their intellectual property. The translation of asset allocations into ETFs is based on the interpretation of LazyPortfolioETF.com and may not exactly reflect the original intent of the portfolio creators. Content is for informational, educational, illustrative, and entertainment purposes only.
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Asset Allocations and ETFs

The compared portfolios have the following asset allocations.

Weight
(%)
Ticker Name
25.00
IJR
iShares Core S&P Small-Cap
25.00
VEU
Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US
25.00
VV
Vanguard Large-Cap
25.00
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond
Weight
(%)
Ticker Name
25.00
VUG
Vanguard Growth
17.00
VEU
Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US
16.00
VTV
Vanguard Value
7.00
EEM
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets
2.00
IJS
iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value
2.00
IJT
iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Growth
9.00
IEI
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond
9.00
LQD
iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond
7.00
MBB
iShares MBS
3.00
HYG
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond
2.00
BIL
SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill
1.00
BNDX
Vanguard Total International Bond
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Portfolio Returns as of Jun 30, 2025

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:
  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • rebalancing: at every Jan 1st.
  • dividend reinvestment, when applicable.
Return Comparison
Capital Growth
30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)
All Data
(1985/01 - 2025/06)
Inflation Adjusted:
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Initial Amount $ Final Amount $ Total Return (%) Annualized (%)
Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio
Bill Bernstein
1 $ 9.21 $ 821.28% 7.68%
Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Aggressive
Merrill Lynch
1 $ 10.54 $ 954.29% 8.17%

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Initial Amount $ Final Amount $ Total Return (%) Annualized (%)
Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio
Bill Bernstein
1 $ 4.38 $ 337.85% 5.05%
Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Aggressive
Merrill Lynch
1 $ 5.01 $ 401.07% 5.52%

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Initial Amount $ Final Amount $ Total Return (%) Annualized (%)
Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio
Bill Bernstein
1 $ 35.71 $ 3 470.93% 9.23%
Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Aggressive
Merrill Lynch
1 $ 47.17 $ 4 616.84% 9.98%

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Initial Amount $ Final Amount $ Total Return (%) Annualized (%)
Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio
Bill Bernstein
1 $ 11.75 $ 1 074.86% 6.27%
Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Aggressive
Merrill Lynch
1 $ 15.52 $ 1 451.87% 7.00%

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Return (%) as of Jun 30, 2025
YTD
(6M)
1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~41Y)
http://www.lazyportfolioetf.com/wp-content/themes/dynamico-child/img/author/avatar_bernstein.webp No Brainer Portfolio
Bill Bernstein
5.74 3.43 5.74 11.31 10.10 7.60 7.68 9.23
http://www.lazyportfolioetf.com/wp-content/themes/dynamico-child/img/author/avatar_merrill_lynch.webp Edge Select Moderately Aggressive
Merrill Lynch
8.07 3.92 8.07 13.40 9.98 8.54 8.17 9.98
Returns over 1 year are annualized.
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Portfolio Metrics as of Jun 30, 2025

The following metrics, updated as of 30 June 2025, provide an overview of performance and risk, with the best value in each row highlighted within the table.

METRIC COMPARISON
Period: 1 July 2024 - 30 June 2025 (1 year)
Period: 1 July 2020 - 30 June 2025 (5 years)
Period: 1 July 2015 - 30 June 2025 (10 years)
Period: 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 years)
Period: 1 January 1985 - 30 June 2025 (~41 years)
1 Year
5 Years
10 Years
30 Years
All (1985/01 - 2025/06)
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No Brainer Portfolio Edge Select Moderately Aggressive
Author Bill Bernstein Merrill Lynch
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 75% 69%
Fixed Income 25% 31%
Commodities 0% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 11.31 13.40
Infl. Adjusted (%) 8.67 10.71
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -4.91 -2.56
Start to Recovery (months) 7 3
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -4.91 -2.23
Start to Recovery (months) 7 3
Longest Negative Period (months) 9 7
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 9.17 7.74
Sharpe Ratio 0.73 1.13
Sortino Ratio 0.98 1.48
Ulcer Index 2.30 1.26
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 1.23 1.73
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 2.30 5.23
Metrics calculated over the period 1 July 2024 - 30 June 2025
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No Brainer Portfolio Edge Select Moderately Aggressive
Author Bill Bernstein Merrill Lynch
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 75% 69%
Fixed Income 25% 31%
Commodities 0% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 10.10 9.98
Infl. Adjusted (%) 5.33 5.21
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -19.76 -22.31
Start to Recovery (months) 26 26
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -19.76 -22.31
Start to Recovery (months) 26 26
Longest Negative Period (months) 32 34
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 12.26 12.12
Sharpe Ratio 0.61 0.60
Sortino Ratio 0.84 0.82
Ulcer Index 6.62 7.72
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.82 0.82
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.51 0.45
Metrics calculated over the period 1 July 2020 - 30 June 2025
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No Brainer Portfolio Edge Select Moderately Aggressive
Author Bill Bernstein Merrill Lynch
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 75% 69%
Fixed Income 25% 31%
Commodities 0% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 7.60 8.54
Infl. Adjusted (%) 4.42 5.33
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -19.76 -22.31
Start to Recovery (months) 26 26
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -19.76 -22.31
Start to Recovery (months) 26 26
Longest Negative Period (months) 33 34
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 11.89 11.30
Sharpe Ratio 0.49 0.59
Sortino Ratio 0.65 0.79
Ulcer Index 5.76 6.02
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.64 0.76
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.38 0.38
Metrics calculated over the period 1 July 2015 - 30 June 2025
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No Brainer Portfolio Edge Select Moderately Aggressive
Author Bill Bernstein Merrill Lynch
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 75% 69%
Fixed Income 25% 31%
Commodities 0% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 7.68 8.17
Infl. Adjusted (%) 5.05 5.52
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -40.40 -38.23
Start to Recovery (months) 40 38
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -24.46 -25.60
Start to Recovery (months) 45 41
Longest Negative Period (months) 110 110
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 11.83 11.17
Sharpe Ratio 0.46 0.53
Sortino Ratio 0.60 0.69
Ulcer Index 8.72 8.51
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.65 0.73
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.19 0.21
Metrics calculated over the period 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025
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No Brainer Portfolio Edge Select Moderately Aggressive
Author Bill Bernstein Merrill Lynch
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 75% 69%
Fixed Income 25% 31%
Commodities 0% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 9.23 9.98
Infl. Adjusted (%) 6.27 7.00
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -40.40 -38.23
Start to Recovery (months) 40 38
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -24.46 -25.60
Start to Recovery (months) 45 41
Longest Negative Period (months) 110 110
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 11.66 11.23
Sharpe Ratio 0.52 0.61
Sortino Ratio 0.68 0.80
Ulcer Index 7.86 7.66
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.79 0.89
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.23 0.26
Metrics calculated over the period 1 January 1985 - 30 June 2025
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Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

DRAWDOWN COMPARISON
Period: 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 years)
Period: 1 January 1985 - 30 June 2025 (~41 years)
30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)

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No Brainer Portfolio Edge Select Moderately Aggressive
Drawdown
(%)
Recovery
(#Months)
From
To
Drawdown
(%)
Recovery
(#Months)
From
To
-40.40 40 Nov 2007
Feb 2011
-38.23 38 Nov 2007
Dec 2010
-25.60 41 Sep 2000
Jan 2004
-24.46 45 Apr 2000
Dec 2003
-22.31 26 Jan 2022
Feb 2024
-19.76 26 Jan 2022
Feb 2024
-18.24 8 Jan 2020
Aug 2020
-16.20 17 May 2011
Sep 2012
-14.29 7 Jan 2020
Jul 2020
-13.95 8 May 1998
Dec 1998
-13.38 10 May 2011
Feb 2012
-11.92 14 Sep 2018
Oct 2019
-10.89 7 May 1998
Nov 1998
-9.25 7 Oct 2018
Apr 2019
-9.17 14 Jun 2015
Jul 2016

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No Brainer Portfolio Edge Select Moderately Aggressive
Drawdown
(%)
Recovery
(#Months)
From
To
Drawdown
(%)
Recovery
(#Months)
From
To
-40.40 40 Nov 2007
Feb 2011
-38.23 38 Nov 2007
Dec 2010
-25.60 41 Sep 2000
Jan 2004
-24.46 45 Apr 2000
Dec 2003
-22.31 26 Jan 2022
Feb 2024
-19.76 26 Jan 2022
Feb 2024
-19.71 17 Sep 1987
Jan 1989
-19.36 17 Sep 1987
Jan 1989
-18.24 8 Jan 2020
Aug 2020
-16.20 17 May 2011
Sep 2012
-14.76 14 Jan 1990
Feb 1991
-14.29 7 Jan 2020
Jul 2020
-13.95 8 May 1998
Dec 1998
-13.38 10 May 2011
Feb 2012
-13.23 7 Aug 1990
Feb 1991

Rolling Returns

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You can explore the Rolling Returns for a single portfolio, or check the return differential, by switching on "Head To Head" toggle.

Rolling Returns Comparison
Annualized Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1985 - 30 June 2025 (~41 years)


Head To Head (Ptf 1 vs Ptf 2):
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Yearly Returns

For each year, the following table provides the return and intra-year drawdown. The highlighted returns represent the highest values for that specific year.

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No Brainer Portfolio Edge Select Moderately Aggressive
Year Return
(%)
Drawdown
(%)
Return
(%)
Drawdown
(%)
2025
5.74 -3.94 8.07 -2.56
2024
10.84 -3.33 13.17 -3.06
2023
15.77 -8.55 19.24 -8.08
2022
-13.89 -19.76 -17.08 -22.31
2021
15.39 -2.73 12.88 -3.28
2020
11.61 -18.24 16.02 -14.29
2019
19.82 -5.15 22.30 -4.24
2018
-6.41 -11.92 -5.68 -9.25
2017
15.70 -0.29 18.60 0.00
2016
11.03 -4.44 8.18 -3.80
2015
-1.35 -7.81 -1.40 -7.75
2014
3.78 -3.16 6.31 -2.65
2013
22.10 -1.89 16.88 -2.57
2012
12.91 -6.94 13.59 -5.96
2011
-2.59 -16.20 -0.71 -13.38
2010
14.15 -9.69 13.09 -8.24
2009
22.80 -15.37 26.40 -13.32
2008
-26.26 -28.63 -25.92 -29.30
2007
7.14 -4.50 9.49 -3.81
2006
15.27 -3.41 14.56 -3.15
2005
7.66 -4.07 8.32 -3.32
2004
13.66 -3.04 11.86 -3.19
2003
27.39 -4.14 25.92 -2.76
2002
-10.88 -16.92 -9.91 -15.72
2001
-4.49 -14.84 -6.23 -15.50
2000
-4.63 -10.08 -5.49 -9.00
1999
18.99 -3.58 18.91 -2.47
1998
12.24 -13.95 16.84 -10.89
1997
15.88 -4.06 16.20 -5.14
1996
12.52 -4.66 13.20 -3.20
1995
20.57 -1.62 23.22 -0.43
1994
2.49 -4.18 0.12 -6.49
1993
16.21 -3.68 19.47 -2.68
1992
4.40 -3.33 3.95 -3.09
1991
24.11 -4.26 31.55 -3.84
1990
-9.08 -14.76 -3.49 -13.23
1989
18.78 -2.53 26.95 -1.61
1988
17.83 -3.06 16.80 -3.01
1987
8.39 -19.71 4.39 -19.36
1986
25.39 -4.13 23.79 -5.19
1985
32.35 -2.40 32.17 -2.00
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