Data Source: from January 1986 to September 2021

Last Update: 30 September 2021

The Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio is exposed for 75% on the Stock Market.

It's a High Risk portfolio and it can be replicated with 4 ETFs.

In the last 10 years, the portfolio obtained a 10.5% compound annual return, with a 10.52% standard deviation.

In the last 25 years, a 7.67% compound annual return, with a 11.90% standard deviation.

In 2020, the portfolio granted a 1.53% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

75% Stocks
25% Fixed Income
0% Commodities

The Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio can be replicated with the following ETFs:

Weight Ticker ETF Name Investment Themes
25.00 % IJR iShares Core S&P Small-Cap Equity, U.S., Small Cap
25.00 % VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Equity, Global ex-US, Large Cap
25.00 % VV Vanguard Large-Cap Equity, U.S., Large Cap
25.00 % SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond Bond, U.S., Short Term
Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns

The Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

BILL BERNSTEIN NO BRAINER PORTFOLIO RETURNS (%)
Last Update: 30 September 2021
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1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y(*) 5Y(*) 10Y(*) 20Y(*) 25Y(*)
Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio -2.73 -1.49 +3.05 +26.19 +9.37 +10.55 +10.50 +8.08 +7.67
Components
IJR
iShares Core S&P Small-Cap
-2.39 -2.92 +1.29 +57.36 +9.37 +13.54 +15.66 +11.40 +10.36
VEU
Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US
-3.33 -3.26 +1.87 +23.82 +8.34 +9.04 +7.99 +7.18 +5.40
VV
Vanguard Large-Cap
-4.71 +0.39 +9.10 +30.17 +16.63 +17.28 +16.75 +9.70 +9.80
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond
-0.10 +0.03 -0.02 -0.10 +2.53 +1.51 +1.03 +2.20 +3.12
(*) annualized
Portfolio returns are calculated assuming:
  • a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (i.e. at every January 1st)
  • the reinvestment of dividends

If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Historical Returns

Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio - Historical returns and stats.

BILL BERNSTEIN NO BRAINER PORTFOLIO
Last Update: 30 September 2021
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Period Returns
Sep 2021
Standard
Deviation *
Max
Drawdown
Months
Pos - Neg
1M
-2.73%
-2.73%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
0 - 1
3M
-1.49%
-2.73%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
1 - 2
6M
+3.05%
-2.73%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
4 - 2
YTD
+10.36%
-2.73%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
7 - 2
1Y
+26.19%
10.56%
-2.73%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
9 - 3
3Y
+9.37%
annualized
14.57%
-18.24%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
25 - 11
5Y
+10.55%
annualized
11.78%
-18.24%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
43 - 17
10Y
+10.50%
annualized
10.52%
-18.24%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
84 - 36
20Y
+8.08%
annualized
11.68%
-40.40%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
155 - 85
25Y
+7.67%
annualized
11.90%
-40.40%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
189 - 111
MAX
01 Jan 1986
+9.04%
annualized
11.58%
-40.40%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
282 - 147
* Annualized St.Dev. of monthly returns

Best Classic Portfolios, with High Risk, ordered by 25 Years annualized return.

25 Years Stats
% Allocation
Portfolio Return Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm.
Yale Endowment
David Swensen
+8.94% -39.46% 70 30 0 Compare
Simple Path to Wealth
JL Collins
+8.92% -38.54% 75 25 0 Compare
Talmud Portfolio
Roger Gibson
+8.85% -40.18% 66.67 33.33 0 Compare
Late Sixties and Beyond
Burton Malkiel
+8.64% -41.80% 71 29 0 Compare
Lazy Portfolio
David Swensen
+8.43% -40.88% 70 30 0 Compare

See all portfolios

Capital Growth

Time Range:

Drawdowns

Time Range:

Rolling Returns ( more details)

Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns

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Return (*) Negative
Periods
Rolling Period Average Best Worst
1 Year
+9.35% +46.17%
Apr 2020 - Mar 2021
-34.04%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
20.10%
2 Years
+8.49% +30.92%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011
-18.55%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
12.32%
3 Years
+8.31% +20.22%
Apr 2003 - Mar 2006
-9.55%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009
10.41%
5 Years
+8.20% +17.42%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2014
-1.78%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009
1.08%
7 Years
+8.12% +14.87%
Oct 1990 - Sep 1997
+1.23%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
0.00%
10 Years
+8.00% +13.10%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2000
+1.74%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
0.00%
15 Years
+7.61% +11.92%
Feb 1986 - Jan 2001
+4.83%
Mar 1994 - Feb 2009
0.00%
20 Years
+7.60% +10.46%
Feb 1986 - Jan 2006
+4.80%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
0.00%

* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality and Yearly/Monthly Returns

Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio Seasonality: in which months is it better to invest?

In the table below, the average monthly return is represented.

Below each return, it's also mentioned the probability of obtaining a positive monthly result (Win %).

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.

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Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Win %
0.71
64%
0.88
61%
0.97
69%
1.78
78%
0.73
69%
0.42
53%
0.83
56%
-0.04
67%
-0.15
53%
0.24
63%
1.22
74%
1.82
83%
Best
Year
9.3
1987
7.6
1991
6.5
1986
9.9
2009
7.2
1990
5.2
2019
7.1
2009
5.3
1986
7.7
2010
9.0
2011
10.1
2020
6.9
1999
Worst
Year
-8.3
2009
-7.7
2009
-11.8
2020
-3.6
2000
-6.5
2010
-5.9
2008
-7.4
2002
-11.5
1998
-7.6
2001
-16.1
1987
-5.5
2008
-6.4
2018
Statistics calculated for the period Jan 1986 - Sep 2021

For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.

Monthly Returns of Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio

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Months
Year Return Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2021
+10.36% 1.4 3.2 2.4 2.5 1.5 0.6 -0.4 1.7 -2.7
2020
+11.61% -1.7 -5.8 -11.8 7.5 3.4 2.4 3.5 4.0 -2.5 -0.7 10.1 4.5
2019
+19.82% 6.6 2.4 0.0 2.8 -5.2 5.2 0.2 -2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.6
2018
-6.41% 3.4 -3.3 -0.2 0.4 1.8 -0.1 2.4 1.7 -0.7 -6.5 1.3 -6.4
2017
+15.70% 1.4 1.7 0.8 1.1 0.7 1.0 1.7 -0.3 2.8 1.3 1.8 0.8
2016
+11.03% -4.1 -0.3 5.8 0.9 0.6 0.2 3.3 0.5 0.6 -2.1 3.5 1.9
2015
-1.35% -1.5 4.3 -0.2 0.8 0.4 -1.0 0.2 -4.8 -2.5 5.1 0.4 -2.3
2014
+3.78% -3.2 3.6 0.4 -0.2 1.2 2.1 -2.1 2.4 -2.9 2.4 0.6 -0.4
2013
+22.10% 3.4 0.4 2.2 1.4 0.9 -1.3 4.4 -1.9 4.4 3.0 2.1 1.4
2012
+12.91% 4.6 2.9 1.3 -0.9 -6.1 3.6 0.3 2.3 2.1 -0.9 1.0 2.4
2011
-2.59% 0.8 2.6 0.7 2.9 -1.2 -1.2 -1.8 -5.4 -7.5 9.0 -0.5 0.0
2010
+14.15% -2.9 2.2 5.1 1.6 -6.5 -3.5 5.9 -3.9 7.7 3.0 0.0 5.7
2009
+22.80% -8.3 -7.7 6.0 9.9 5.7 -0.2 7.1 2.4 3.9 -2.8 3.7 2.8
2008
-26.26% -4.4 -1.0 -0.1 3.4 1.7 -5.9 -0.5 0.3 -6.4 -13.6 -5.5 3.3
2007
+7.14% 1.2 -0.4 1.5 2.7 2.8 -0.6 -2.2 1.0 3.2 2.5 -3.6 -1.0
2006
+15.27% 4.5 -0.3 2.6 1.6 -3.0 0.0 -0.4 1.8 1.0 3.2 2.3 1.2
2005
+7.66% -1.7 2.4 -1.8 -2.3 2.7 1.4 3.2 0.2 1.6 -2.2 3.0 1.2
2004
+13.66% 1.6 1.6 0.2 -2.4 1.0 2.5 -3.0 0.2 2.2 1.8 5.0 2.5
2003
+27.39% -2.4 -1.7 -0.1 6.6 4.9 1.7 2.4 2.5 -0.1 5.3 1.8 4.0
2002
-10.88% -1.0 -0.6 4.1 -0.2 -0.9 -3.9 -7.4 0.5 -6.1 3.9 3.5 -2.5
2001
-4.49% 2.7 -5.5 -4.2 5.7 0.0 -0.8 -0.6 -2.3 -7.6 2.9 3.9 2.2
2000
-4.63% -3.3 4.6 1.4 -3.6 -2.5 4.3 -2.2 4.0 -3.1 -1.8 -5.3 3.4
1999
+18.99% 1.3 -3.6 2.8 4.5 -1.6 4.0 -0.8 -1.0 -0.3 2.7 3.1 6.9
1998
+12.24% 0.9 5.4 3.3 0.7 -2.1 1.1 -1.8 -11.5 3.2 5.8 4.1 3.9
1997
+15.88% 1.6 0.1 -2.3 1.9 6.0 4.0 4.2 -3.1 4.9 -4.1 0.9 1.3
1996
+12.52% 1.2 1.0 1.2 2.7 1.4 -0.6 -4.1 2.1 3.2 0.4 4.1 -0.4
1995
+20.57% -0.2 1.1 2.9 2.4 1.6 1.6 3.7 0.0 2.1 -1.6 3.1 2.3
1994
+2.49% 4.4 -0.9 -3.3 1.2 0.2 -0.8 1.6 2.8 -1.6 1.3 -3.5 1.3
1993
+16.21% 1.5 1.1 3.9 1.6 2.6 -0.5 1.3 3.5 -0.3 1.6 -3.7 2.9
1992
+4.40% 0.8 0.4 -3.1 0.0 2.3 -2.4 1.6 0.6 0.4 -0.6 2.9 1.6
1991
+24.11% 3.8 7.6 1.4 0.5 2.4 -4.3 3.4 1.4 1.4 1.8 -3.5 6.5
1990
-9.08% -4.7 -0.8 -0.5 -2.1 7.2 0.1 -0.3 -7.8 -6.2 2.3 1.8 2.4
1989
+18.78% 3.8 -0.3 0.8 3.3 1.4 -0.6 6.7 0.2 1.3 -2.5 2.1 1.7
1988
+17.83% 3.3 5.1 1.6 1.2 -0.9 2.5 -0.1 -3.0 2.8 2.4 0.5 1.3
1987
+8.39% 9.3 3.6 4.1 1.6 0.4 1.3 2.1 4.2 -1.6 -16.1 -2.8 4.2
1986
+25.39% 1.3 6.7 6.5 2.2 1.4 3.0 -1.7 5.3 -4.1 0.0 2.5 0.4

* Note:
Portofolio Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.

In particular, it has been used:

  • IJR - iShares Core S&P Small-Cap: simulated historical serie, up to December 2000
  • VEU - Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
  • VV - Vanguard Large-Cap: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
  • SHY - iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2002
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