Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns

Data Source: from January 1986 to September 2021

Last Update: 30 September 2021

The Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio is exposed for 75% on the Stock Market.

It's a High Risk portfolio and it can be replicated with 4 ETFs.

In the last 10 years, the portfolio obtained a 10.5% compound annual return, with a 10.52% standard deviation.

In the last 25 years, a 7.67% compound annual return, with a 11.90% standard deviation.

In 2020, the portfolio granted a 1.53% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

        75% Stocks
      
        25% Fixed Income
      
        0% Commodities

The Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio can be replicated with the following ETFs:

Weight	Ticker	ETF Name	Investment Themes
25.00 %	IJR	iShares Core S&P Small-Cap	Equity, U.S., Small Cap
25.00 %	VEU	Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US	Equity, Global ex-US, Large Cap
25.00 %	VV	Vanguard Large-Cap	Equity, U.S., Large Cap
25.00 %	SHY	iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond	Bond, U.S., Short Term

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns

The Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

BILL BERNSTEIN NO BRAINER PORTFOLIO RETURNS (%)

Last Update: 30 September 2021

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	1M	3M	6M	1Y	*3Y^()**	*5Y^()**	*10Y^()**	*20Y^()**	*25Y^()**
Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio	-2.73	-1.49	+3.05	+26.19	+9.37	+10.55	+10.50	+8.08	+7.67
*Components*
IJR iShares Core S&P Small-Cap	-2.39	-2.92	+1.29	+57.36	+9.37	+13.54	+15.66	+11.40	+10.36
VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US	-3.33	-3.26	+1.87	+23.82	+8.34	+9.04	+7.99	+7.18	+5.40
VV Vanguard Large-Cap	-4.71	+0.39	+9.10	+30.17	+16.63	+17.28	+16.75	+9.70	+9.80
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond	-0.10	+0.03	-0.02	-0.10	+2.53	+1.51	+1.03	+2.20	+3.12

(*) annualized

Portfolio returns are calculated assuming:

a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (i.e. at every January 1st)
the reinvestment of dividends

If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Readings that may interest you

How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times and Bad, Fourth ...

Never Split the Difference: Negotiating as if Your Life Depended on It

Vanderbilt: The Rise and Fall of an American Dynasty

Historical Returns

Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio - Historical returns and stats.

BILL BERNSTEIN NO BRAINER PORTFOLIO

Last Update: 30 September 2021

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Period	Returns Sep 2021	Standard Deviation *	Max Drawdown	Months Pos - Neg
1M	-2.73%		-2.73% Sep 2021 - Sep 2021	0 - 1
3M	-1.49%		-2.73% Sep 2021 - Sep 2021	1 - 2
6M	+3.05%		-2.73% Sep 2021 - Sep 2021	4 - 2
YTD	+10.36%		-2.73% Sep 2021 - Sep 2021	7 - 2
1Y	+26.19%	10.56%	-2.73% Sep 2021 - Sep 2021	9 - 3
3Y	+9.37% annualized	14.57%	-18.24% Jan 2020 - Mar 2020	25 - 11
5Y	+10.55% annualized	11.78%	-18.24% Jan 2020 - Mar 2020	43 - 17
10Y	+10.50% annualized	10.52%	-18.24% Jan 2020 - Mar 2020	84 - 36
20Y	+8.08% annualized	11.68%	-40.40% Nov 2007 - Feb 2009	155 - 85
25Y	+7.67% annualized	11.90%	-40.40% Nov 2007 - Feb 2009	189 - 111
MAX 01 Jan 1986	+9.04% annualized	11.58%	-40.40% Nov 2007 - Feb 2009	282 - 147

* Annualized St.Dev. of monthly returns

Best Classic Portfolios, with High Risk, ordered by 25 Years annualized return.

	25 Years Stats		% Allocation
Portfolio	Return▾	Drawdown	Stocks	Bonds	Comm.
Yale Endowment David Swensen	+8.94%	-39.46%	70	30	0	Compare
Simple Path to Wealth JL Collins	+8.92%	-38.54%	75	25	0	Compare
Talmud Portfolio Roger Gibson	+8.85%	-40.18%	66.67	33.33	0	Compare
Late Sixties and Beyond Burton Malkiel	+8.64%	-41.80%	71	29	0	Compare
Lazy Portfolio David Swensen	+8.43%	-40.88%	70	30	0	Compare

See all portfolios

Capital Growth

Time Range:

Drawdowns

Time Range:

Worst drawdowns since October 1996 - Chart and Data

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	Drawdown period			Recovery period		Total
Drawdown	Start	Bottom	#Months	End	#Months	#Months
-40.40%	Nov 2007	Feb 2009	16	Feb 2011	24	40
-24.44%	Apr 2000	Sep 2002	30	Dec 2003	15	45
-18.24%	Jan 2020	Mar 2020	3	Aug 2020	5	8
-16.21%	May 2011	Sep 2011	5	Sep 2012	12	17
-13.95%	May 1998	Aug 1998	4	Dec 1998	4	8
-11.92%	Sep 2018	Dec 2018	4	Oct 2019	10	14
-9.18%	Jun 2015	Feb 2016	9	Jul 2016	5	14
-4.07%	Mar 2005	Apr 2005	2	Jul 2005	3	5
-4.06%	Oct 1997	Oct 1997	1	Feb 1998	4	5
-3.58%	Feb 1999	Feb 1999	1	Apr 1999	2	3
-3.44%	Feb 2018	Mar 2018	2	Jul 2018	4	6
-3.42%	May 2006	Jul 2006	3	Oct 2006	3	6
-3.29%	Jan 2000	Jan 2000	1	Feb 2000	1	2
-3.16%	Jan 2014	Jan 2014	1	Feb 2014	1	2
-3.10%	Sep 2020	Oct 2020	2	Nov 2020	1	3
-3.10%	Aug 1997	Aug 1997	1	Sep 1997	1	2
-3.04%	Jul 2004	Jul 2004	1	Oct 2004	3	4
-2.93%	Sep 2014	Sep 2014	1	Nov 2014	2	3
-2.73%	Sep 2021	Sep 2021	1	in progress		1
-2.73%	Jun 2007	Jul 2007	2	Sep 2007	2	4

Worst drawdowns since January 1986 - Chart and Data

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	Drawdown period			Recovery period		Total
Drawdown	Start	Bottom	#Months	End	#Months	#Months
-40.40%	Nov 2007	Feb 2009	16	Feb 2011	24	40
-24.44%	Apr 2000	Sep 2002	30	Dec 2003	15	45
-19.72%	Sep 1987	Nov 1987	3	Jan 1989	14	17
-18.24%	Jan 2020	Mar 2020	3	Aug 2020	5	8
-16.21%	May 2011	Sep 2011	5	Sep 2012	12	17
-14.77%	Jan 1990	Sep 1990	9	Feb 1991	5	14
-13.95%	May 1998	Aug 1998	4	Dec 1998	4	8
-11.92%	Sep 2018	Dec 2018	4	Oct 2019	10	14
-9.18%	Jun 2015	Feb 2016	9	Jul 2016	5	14
-4.66%	Jun 1996	Jul 1996	2	Sep 1996	2	4
-4.26%	Jun 1991	Jun 1991	1	Aug 1991	2	3
-4.18%	Feb 1994	Mar 1994	2	Aug 1994	5	7
-4.13%	Sep 1986	Sep 1986	1	Jan 1987	4	5
-4.07%	Mar 2005	Apr 2005	2	Jul 2005	3	5
-4.06%	Oct 1997	Oct 1997	1	Feb 1998	4	5
-3.75%	Sep 1994	Nov 1994	3	Mar 1995	4	7
-3.68%	Nov 1993	Nov 1993	1	Jan 1994	2	3
-3.58%	Feb 1999	Feb 1999	1	Apr 1999	2	3
-3.48%	Nov 1991	Nov 1991	1	Dec 1991	1	2
-3.44%	Feb 2018	Mar 2018	2	Jul 2018	4	6

Rolling Returns ( more details)

Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns

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	*Return ()**			Negative Periods
Rolling Period	Average	Best	Worst	Negative Periods
1 Year	+9.35%	+46.17% Apr 2020 - Mar 2021	-34.04% Mar 2008 - Feb 2009	20.10%
2 Years	+8.49%	+30.92% Mar 2009 - Feb 2011	-18.55% Mar 2007 - Feb 2009	12.32%
3 Years	+8.31%	+20.22% Apr 2003 - Mar 2006	-9.55% Mar 2006 - Feb 2009	10.41%
5 Years	+8.20%	+17.42% Mar 2009 - Feb 2014	-1.78% Mar 2004 - Feb 2009	1.08%
7 Years	+8.12%	+14.87% Oct 1990 - Sep 1997	+1.23% Mar 2002 - Feb 2009	0.00%
10 Years	+8.00%	+13.10% Oct 1990 - Sep 2000	+1.74% Mar 1999 - Feb 2009	0.00%
15 Years	+7.61%	+11.92% Feb 1986 - Jan 2001	+4.83% Mar 1994 - Feb 2009	0.00%
20 Years	+7.60%	+10.46% Feb 1986 - Jan 2006	+4.80% Apr 2000 - Mar 2020	0.00%

* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality and Yearly/Monthly Returns

Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio Seasonality: in which months is it better to invest?

In the table below, the average monthly return is represented.

Below each return, it's also mentioned the probability of obtaining a positive monthly result (Win %).

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.

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	Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%)	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Average Win %	0.71 64%	0.88 61%	0.97 69%	1.78 78%	0.73 69%	0.42 53%	0.83 56%	-0.04 67%	-0.15 53%	0.24 63%	1.22 74%	1.82 83%
Best Year	9.3 1987	7.6 1991	6.5 1986	9.9 2009	7.2 1990	5.2 2019	7.1 2009	5.3 1986	7.7 2010	9.0 2011	10.1 2020	6.9 1999
Worst Year	-8.3 2009	-7.7 2009	-11.8 2020	-3.6 2000	-6.5 2010	-5.9 2008	-7.4 2002	-11.5 1998	-7.6 2001	-16.1 1987	-5.5 2008	-6.4 2018

Statistics calculated for the period Jan 1986 - Sep 2021

For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.

Monthly Returns of Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio

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		Months
Year	Return	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
2021	+10.36%	1.4	3.2	2.4	2.5	1.5	0.6	-0.4	1.7	-2.7
2020	+11.61%	-1.7	-5.8	-11.8	7.5	3.4	2.4	3.5	4.0	-2.5	-0.7	10.1	4.5
2019	+19.82%	6.6	2.4	0.0	2.8	-5.2	5.2	0.2	-2.1	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.6
2018	-6.41%	3.4	-3.3	-0.2	0.4	1.8	-0.1	2.4	1.7	-0.7	-6.5	1.3	-6.4
2017	+15.70%	1.4	1.7	0.8	1.1	0.7	1.0	1.7	-0.3	2.8	1.3	1.8	0.8
2016	+11.03%	-4.1	-0.3	5.8	0.9	0.6	0.2	3.3	0.5	0.6	-2.1	3.5	1.9
2015	-1.35%	-1.5	4.3	-0.2	0.8	0.4	-1.0	0.2	-4.8	-2.5	5.1	0.4	-2.3
2014	+3.78%	-3.2	3.6	0.4	-0.2	1.2	2.1	-2.1	2.4	-2.9	2.4	0.6	-0.4
2013	+22.10%	3.4	0.4	2.2	1.4	0.9	-1.3	4.4	-1.9	4.4	3.0	2.1	1.4
2012	+12.91%	4.6	2.9	1.3	-0.9	-6.1	3.6	0.3	2.3	2.1	-0.9	1.0	2.4
2011	-2.59%	0.8	2.6	0.7	2.9	-1.2	-1.2	-1.8	-5.4	-7.5	9.0	-0.5	0.0
2010	+14.15%	-2.9	2.2	5.1	1.6	-6.5	-3.5	5.9	-3.9	7.7	3.0	0.0	5.7
2009	+22.80%	-8.3	-7.7	6.0	9.9	5.7	-0.2	7.1	2.4	3.9	-2.8	3.7	2.8
2008	-26.26%	-4.4	-1.0	-0.1	3.4	1.7	-5.9	-0.5	0.3	-6.4	-13.6	-5.5	3.3
2007	+7.14%	1.2	-0.4	1.5	2.7	2.8	-0.6	-2.2	1.0	3.2	2.5	-3.6	-1.0
2006	+15.27%	4.5	-0.3	2.6	1.6	-3.0	0.0	-0.4	1.8	1.0	3.2	2.3	1.2
2005	+7.66%	-1.7	2.4	-1.8	-2.3	2.7	1.4	3.2	0.2	1.6	-2.2	3.0	1.2
2004	+13.66%	1.6	1.6	0.2	-2.4	1.0	2.5	-3.0	0.2	2.2	1.8	5.0	2.5
2003	+27.39%	-2.4	-1.7	-0.1	6.6	4.9	1.7	2.4	2.5	-0.1	5.3	1.8	4.0
2002	-10.88%	-1.0	-0.6	4.1	-0.2	-0.9	-3.9	-7.4	0.5	-6.1	3.9	3.5	-2.5
2001	-4.49%	2.7	-5.5	-4.2	5.7	0.0	-0.8	-0.6	-2.3	-7.6	2.9	3.9	2.2
2000	-4.63%	-3.3	4.6	1.4	-3.6	-2.5	4.3	-2.2	4.0	-3.1	-1.8	-5.3	3.4
1999	+18.99%	1.3	-3.6	2.8	4.5	-1.6	4.0	-0.8	-1.0	-0.3	2.7	3.1	6.9
1998	+12.24%	0.9	5.4	3.3	0.7	-2.1	1.1	-1.8	-11.5	3.2	5.8	4.1	3.9
1997	+15.88%	1.6	0.1	-2.3	1.9	6.0	4.0	4.2	-3.1	4.9	-4.1	0.9	1.3
1996	+12.52%	1.2	1.0	1.2	2.7	1.4	-0.6	-4.1	2.1	3.2	0.4	4.1	-0.4
1995	+20.57%	-0.2	1.1	2.9	2.4	1.6	1.6	3.7	0.0	2.1	-1.6	3.1	2.3
1994	+2.49%	4.4	-0.9	-3.3	1.2	0.2	-0.8	1.6	2.8	-1.6	1.3	-3.5	1.3
1993	+16.21%	1.5	1.1	3.9	1.6	2.6	-0.5	1.3	3.5	-0.3	1.6	-3.7	2.9
1992	+4.40%	0.8	0.4	-3.1	0.0	2.3	-2.4	1.6	0.6	0.4	-0.6	2.9	1.6
1991	+24.11%	3.8	7.6	1.4	0.5	2.4	-4.3	3.4	1.4	1.4	1.8	-3.5	6.5
1990	-9.08%	-4.7	-0.8	-0.5	-2.1	7.2	0.1	-0.3	-7.8	-6.2	2.3	1.8	2.4
1989	+18.78%	3.8	-0.3	0.8	3.3	1.4	-0.6	6.7	0.2	1.3	-2.5	2.1	1.7
1988	+17.83%	3.3	5.1	1.6	1.2	-0.9	2.5	-0.1	-3.0	2.8	2.4	0.5	1.3
1987	+8.39%	9.3	3.6	4.1	1.6	0.4	1.3	2.1	4.2	-1.6	-16.1	-2.8	4.2
1986	+25.39%	1.3	6.7	6.5	2.2	1.4	3.0	-1.7	5.3	-4.1	0.0	2.5	0.4

* Note:
Portofolio Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.

In particular, it has been used:

IJR - iShares Core S&P Small-Cap: simulated historical serie, up to December 2000
VEU - Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
VV - Vanguard Large-Cap: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
SHY - iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2002