Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns

Data Source: from January 1970 to April 2024 (~54 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 April 2024
Live Update: May 01 2024, 04:00PM Eastern Time
PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
0.04%
1 Day
May 01 2024, 04:00PM Eastern Time
0.04%
Current Month
May 2024

The Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio is a High Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 4 ETFs.

It's exposed for 75% on the Stock Market.

In the last 30 Years, the Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio obtained a 7.53% compound annual return, with a 11.75% standard deviation.

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Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

75% Stocks
25% Fixed Income
0% Commodities

The Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight
(%)		 Investment Themes (Orig.Currency) ETF
Ticker		 ETF
Currency		 ETF Name
25.00 Equity, U.S., Small Cap (USD)
IJR
USD iShares Core S&P Small-Cap
25.00 Equity, Global ex-US, Large Cap (USD)
VEU
USD Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US
25.00 Equity, U.S., Large Cap (USD)
VV
USD Vanguard Large-Cap
25.00 Bond, U.S., Short Term (USD)
SHY
USD iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Apr 30, 2024

The Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming: May 2024 return is calculated on the hypothesis of a newly built portfolio, with the starting asset allocation.
BILL BERNSTEIN NO BRAINER PORTFOLIO
Consolidated returns as of 30 April 2024
Live Update: May 01 2024, 04:00PM Eastern Time
Swipe left to see all data
  Chg (%) Return (%) Return (%) as of Apr 30, 2024
  1 Day Time ET(*) May 2024 1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~54Y)
Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio -0.04 -0.04 -3.15 14.15 11.58 6.73 6.64 7.53 9.46
US Inflation Adjusted return -3.15 12.43 8.29 2.52 3.72 4.87 5.28
Components
IJR
USD iShares Core S&P Small-Cap 0.34 04:00PM, May 01 2024 0.34 -5.55 18.10 12.63 7.02 8.43 9.90 11.33
VEU
USD Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US -0.03 04:00PM, May 01 2024 -0.03 -2.51 16.06 8.76 5.23 4.18 4.81 8.11
VV
USD Vanguard Large-Cap -0.33 04:00PM, May 01 2024 -0.33 -3.99 20.72 22.87 12.96 12.23 10.48 10.58
SHY
USD iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond -0.12 04:00PM, May 01 2024 -0.12 -0.44 1.99 2.09 0.85 0.86 3.07 5.56
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1970
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Mar 2024. Pending updates, the monthly inflation is set at 0% for the subsequent periods. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 3.04% , 5Y: 4.11% , 10Y: 2.82% , 30Y: 2.54%
Live update: World Markets and Indexes

In 2023, the Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio granted a 2.53% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Capital Growth as of Apr 30, 2024

An investment of 1$, since May 1994, now would be worth 8.82$, with a total return of 782.34% (7.53% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 4.16$, with a net total return of 315.98% (4.87% annualized).
An investment of 1$, since January 1970, now would be worth 135.50$, with a total return of 13449.74% (9.46% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 16.36$, with a net total return of 1536.05% (5.28% annualized).
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Portfolio Metrics as of Apr 30, 2024

Metrics of Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio, updated as of 30 April 2024.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
BILL BERNSTEIN NO BRAINER PORTFOLIO
Advanced Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 1970 - 30 April 2024 (~54 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of Apr 30, 2024
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
(~54Y)
Investment Return (%) -3.15 1.97 14.15 11.58 1.95 6.73 6.64 7.15 7.53 9.46
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) details -3.15 1.14 12.43 8.29 -3.27 2.52 3.72 4.45 4.87 5.28
US Inflation (%) 0.00 0.82 1.53 3.04 5.39 4.11 2.82 2.59 2.54 3.97
Pending updates, the monthly inflation after Mar 2024 is set at 0%. Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -8.54 -19.76 -19.76 -19.76 -40.40 -40.40 -40.40
Start to Recovery (# months) details 5 26 26 26 40 40 40
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2007 11 2007 11 2007 11
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 9 9 9 16 16 16
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2009 02 2009 02
Bottom to End (# months) 2 17 17 17 24 24 24
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 2024 02 2024 02 2024 02 2011 02 2011 02 2011 02
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
same as
deepest		 -24.46 -24.46
Start to Recovery (# months) details 45 45
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2007 11 2000 04 2000 04
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 9 9 9 16 30 30
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2002 09 2002 09
Bottom to End (# months) 2 17 17 17 24 15 15
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 2024 02 2024 02 2024 02 2011 02 2003 12 2003 12
Longest negative period (# months) details 6 31 32 33 59 110 110
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 05 2021 05 2021 03 2017 07 2004 05 2000 01 2000 01
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2023 11 2023 10 2020 03 2009 03 2009 02 2009 02
Annualized Return (%) -4.45 -0.34 -1.00 -0.25 -0.17 -0.27 -0.27
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -9.41 -24.88 -24.88 -24.88 -41.38 -41.38 -44.23
Start to Recovery (# months) details 5 32* 32* 32* 63 63 95
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2021 09 2021 09 2021 09 2007 11 2007 11 1973 01
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 13 13 13 16 16 21
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2009 02 1974 09
Bottom to End (# months) 2 19 19 19 47 47 74
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 - - - 2013 01 2013 01 1980 11
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
Start to Recovery (# months) details
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2021 09 2021 09 2021 09 2007 11 2007 11 1973 01
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 13 13 13 16 16 21
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2009 02 1974 09
Bottom to End (# months) 2 19 19 19 47 47 74
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 - - - 2013 01 2013 01 1980 11
Longest negative period (# months) details 6 36* 48 69 69 139 139
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 05 2021 05 2019 11 2018 02 2018 02 1997 08 1997 08
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2024 04 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2009 02 2009 02
Annualized Return (%) -7.22 -3.27 -0.12 -0.04 -0.04 -0.18 -0.18
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Standard Deviation (%) 12.37 12.98 14.07 11.71 12.06 11.75 12.09
Sharpe Ratio 0.51 -0.05 0.34 0.46 0.48 0.45 0.45
Sortino Ratio 0.74 -0.08 0.46 0.61 0.63 0.59 0.60
Ulcer Index 3.20 8.36 7.37 5.77 8.82 8.72 7.96
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.94 0.15 0.48 0.57 0.59 0.64 0.78
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 1.36 0.10 0.34 0.34 0.18 0.19 0.23
% Positive Months details 50% 52% 60% 64% 63% 63% 63%
Positive Months 6 19 36 77 153 227 412
Negative Months 6 17 24 43 87 133 240
LONG TERM RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 6.64 11.57 11.57 19.28
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 4.88 1.74 1.74
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 3.72 9.64 9.64 12.27
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 2.81 -0.83 -0.93
ROLLING PERIODS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Over the latest 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 46.17 20.22 17.42 11.57 8.18 7.53
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -34.04 -9.55 -1.78 1.74 4.80
% Positive Periods 75% 87% 98% 100% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 79.38 26.71 16.97 9.56 5.84 6.80
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - - 2.38 5.16
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 42.44 17.40 15.05 9.64 5.80 4.87
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -34.04 -11.48 -4.31 -0.83 2.66
% Positive Periods 71% 81% 90% 98% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 79.38 26.71 16.97 9.56 5.84 6.80
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - - 2.38 5.16
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Over all the available data source (Jan 1970 - Apr 2024)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 54.85 31.90 27.35 19.28 15.24 13.06
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -34.04 -9.55 -1.78 1.74 4.80 7.07
% Positive Periods 79% 90% 99% 100% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 79.38 24.75 15.30 8.35 5.79 5.08
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - - 2.38 3.95
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 51.12 28.04 23.47 12.27 10.43 8.14
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -36.63 -12.86 -6.35 -0.93 2.66 4.43
% Positive Periods 72% 83% 89% 97% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 79.38 24.75 15.30 8.35 5.79 5.08
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - - 2.38 3.95
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio.
  • Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
  • Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
  • Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
  • Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money in any case (money amount withdrawal).
    For instance: Your initial invested capital is 100.000$; withdrawal rate (annualized) is 4%. This means that, in the first month, you will withdraw 100.000 * 4% * 1/12 = 333.33$. The second month, you’ll withdraw 333.33$ plus the inflation monthly rate. You’ll continue adjusting your withdraw monthly for inflation.
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.

Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.

Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1. If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS
Monthly correlations as of 30 April 2024
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If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

BILL BERNSTEIN NO BRAINER PORTFOLIO
Drawdown periods
Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 May 1994 - 30 April 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1970 - 30 April 2024 (~54 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
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Rolling Returns

( more details)

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

BILL BERNSTEIN NO BRAINER PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 May 1994 - 30 April 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1970 - 30 April 2024 (~54 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
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Monthly Returns

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

BILL BERNSTEIN NO BRAINER PORTFOLIO
Monthly Returns Distribution
Data Source: 1 May 1994 - 30 April 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1970 - 30 April 2024 (~54 years)
227 Positive Months (63%) - 133 Negative Months (37%)
412 Positive Months (63%) - 240 Negative Months (37%)
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(Scroll down to see all data)
Investment Returns, up to December 2007, have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
You can find additional information on extended Data Sources here.

In particular, the series derived from equivalent datasets are:
  • IJR - iShares Core S&P Small-Cap (IJR), up to December 2000
  • VEU - Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US (VEU), up to December 2007
  • VV - Vanguard Large-Cap (VV), up to December 2004
  • SHY - iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond (SHY), up to December 2002

Portfolio efficiency

The following portfolios granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.

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In the following table, you can compare the current portfolio with a list of famous portfolios. Metrics are calculated over the last 30 Years.

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