Data Source: from January 1986 to December 2021
Last Update: 31 December 2021
The Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio is exposed for 75% on the Stock Market.
It's a High Risk portfolio and it can be replicated with 4 ETFs.
In the last 10 years, the portfolio obtained a 10.10% compound annual return, with a 10.29% standard deviation.
In the last 25 years, a 7.69% compound annual return, with a 11.91% standard deviation.
Asset Allocation and ETFs
The Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio has the following asset allocation:
The Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio can be replicated with the following ETFs:
| Weight | Ticker | ETF Name | Investment Themes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25.00 % | IJR | iShares Core S&P Small-Cap | Equity, U.S., Small Cap | |
| 25.00 % | VEU | Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US | Equity, Global ex-US, Large Cap | |
| 25.00 % | VV | Vanguard Large-Cap | Equity, U.S., Large Cap | |
| 25.00 % | SHY | iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond | Bond, U.S., Short Term |
Portfolio and ETF Returns
The Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y(*) | 5Y(*) | 10Y(*) | 20Y(*) | 25Y(*) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio | +3.17 | +4.56 | +3.00 | +15.39 | +15.56 | +10.81 | +10.10 | +7.84 | +7.69 |
| --- Inflation Adjusted return | +2.69 | +2.30 | -0.39 | +7.72 | +11.62 | +7.67 | +7.82 | +5.40 | +5.28 |
| Components | |||||||||
|
IJR iShares Core S&P Small-Cap |
+4.50 | +5.57 | +2.49 | +26.60 | +20.05 | +12.37 | +14.47 | +10.68 | +10.37 |
|
VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US |
+3.69 | +1.96 | -1.37 | +8.28 | +13.60 | +9.89 | +7.57 | +6.87 | +5.48 |
|
VV Vanguard Large-Cap |
+4.17 | +10.38 | +10.81 | +27.40 | +26.47 | +18.72 | +16.63 | +9.69 | +9.88 |
|
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond |
-0.21 | -0.60 | -0.57 | -0.72 | +1.88 | +1.47 | +0.95 | +2.17 | +3.01 |
- a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (i.e. at every January 1st)
- the reinvestment of dividends
Inflation is updated to Dec 2021. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 7.12% , 3Y: 3.53% , 5Y: 2.92% , 10Y: 2.12% , 20Y: 2.31% , 25Y: 2.29%
In 2021, the portfolio granted a 1.74% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.
Historical Returns
Historical returns and stats of Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio. Total Returns and Inflation Adjusted Returns are both mentioned.
| Period | Return Dec 2021 update |
Return Inflation Adjusted |
Standard Deviation(*) |
Max Drawdown |
Months Pos - Neg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1M
Dec 2021
|
+3.17%
|
+2.69%
|
0.00%
|
1 - 0
|
|
|
3M
|
+4.56%
|
+2.30%
|
-1.98%
Nov 2021 - Nov 2021
|
2 - 1
|
|
|
6M
|
+3.00%
|
-0.39%
|
-2.73%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
3 - 3
|
|
|
YTD
|
+15.39%
|
+7.72%
|
6.65%
|
-2.73%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
9 - 3
75% pos
|
|
1Y
|
+15.39%
|
+7.72%
|
6.65%
|
-2.73%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
9 - 3
75% pos
|
|
3Y
|
+15.56%
annualized
|
+11.62%
annualized
|
13.44%
|
-18.24%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
|
26 - 10
72% pos
|
|
5Y
|
+10.81%
annualized
|
+7.67%
annualized
|
11.80%
|
-18.24%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
|
43 - 17
72% pos
|
|
10Y
|
+10.10%
annualized
|
+7.82%
annualized
|
10.29%
|
-18.24%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
|
84 - 36
70% pos
|
|
20Y
|
+7.84%
annualized
|
+5.40%
annualized
|
11.69%
|
-40.40%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
|
154 - 86
64% pos
|
|
25Y
|
+7.69%
annualized
|
+5.28%
annualized
|
11.91%
|
-40.40%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
|
189 - 111
63% pos
|
|
MAX
01 Jan 1986
|
+9.11%
annualized
|
+6.30%
annualized
|
11.56%
|
-40.40%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
|
284 - 148
66% pos
|
Portfolio efficiency
Is the Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio actually efficient, compared to other Lazy Portfolios?
Best Classic Portfolios, with High Risk, ordered by 25 Years annualized return.
25 Years Stats |
% Allocation |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | Return▾ | Drawdown | Stocks | Bonds | Comm. | ||
| Simple Path to Wealth JL Collins |
+8.96% | -38.54% | 75 | 25 | 0 | Compare | |
| Yale Endowment David Swensen |
+8.94% | -39.46% | 70 | 30 | 0 | Compare | |
| Talmud Portfolio Roger Gibson |
+8.80% | -40.18% | 66.67 | 33.33 | 0 | Compare | |
| Late Sixties and Beyond Burton Malkiel |
+8.63% | -41.80% | 71 | 29 | 0 | Compare | |
| Lazy Portfolio David Swensen |
+8.41% | -40.88% | 70 | 30 | 0 | Compare | |
Our overall ratings, assigned to the Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio. The portfolio is classified as High Risk.
Less than 25%
25% - 49.99%
50% - 74.99%
At least 75%
| High Risk Portfolios |
All Portfolios |
||
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Years Ann. Return (Inflation Adjusted) |
+7.69%
(+5.28%) |
Average : 2.7 / 5
|
Good : 3.4 / 5
|
| Standard Deviation over 25 Years |
11.91% |
Bad : 1.1 / 5
|
Average : 2.9 / 5
|
| Maximum Drawdown over 25 Years |
-40.40% |
Poor : 1 / 5
|
Average : 2.4 / 5
|
| Easy to manage | 4 ETFs |
Good : 3.5 / 5
|
Good : 3.5 / 5
|
| Rating assigned considering all the High Risk Portfolios | Rating assigned considering all the Portfolios in the database |
Capital Growth
An investment of 1000$, since January 1997, now would be worth 6378.64$, with a total return of 537.86% (7.69% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 3621.95$, with a net total return of 262.19% (5.28% annualized).
Drawdowns
Worst drawdowns since January 1997 - Chart and Data
Drawdown period |
Recovery period |
Total |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months |
| -40.40% | Nov 2007 | Feb 2009 | 16 | Feb 2011 | 24 | 40 |
| -24.46% | Apr 2000 | Sep 2002 | 30 | Dec 2003 | 15 | 45 |
| -18.24% | Jan 2020 | Mar 2020 | 3 | Aug 2020 | 5 | 8 |
| -16.20% | May 2011 | Sep 2011 | 5 | Sep 2012 | 12 | 17 |
| -13.95% | May 1998 | Aug 1998 | 4 | Dec 1998 | 4 | 8 |
| -11.92% | Sep 2018 | Dec 2018 | 4 | Oct 2019 | 10 | 14 |
| -9.17% | Jun 2015 | Feb 2016 | 9 | Jul 2016 | 5 | 14 |
| -4.07% | Mar 2005 | Apr 2005 | 2 | Jul 2005 | 3 | 5 |
| -4.06% | Oct 1997 | Oct 1997 | 1 | Feb 1998 | 4 | 5 |
| -3.58% | Feb 1999 | Feb 1999 | 1 | Apr 1999 | 2 | 3 |
| -3.45% | Feb 2018 | Mar 2018 | 2 | Jul 2018 | 4 | 6 |
| -3.41% | May 2006 | Jul 2006 | 3 | Oct 2006 | 3 | 6 |
| -3.29% | Jan 2000 | Jan 2000 | 1 | Feb 2000 | 1 | 2 |
| -3.16% | Jan 2014 | Jan 2014 | 1 | Feb 2014 | 1 | 2 |
| -3.10% | Sep 2020 | Oct 2020 | 2 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 3 |
| -3.10% | Aug 1997 | Aug 1997 | 1 | Sep 1997 | 1 | 2 |
| -3.04% | Jul 2004 | Jul 2004 | 1 | Oct 2004 | 3 | 4 |
| -2.93% | Sep 2014 | Sep 2014 | 1 | Nov 2014 | 2 | 3 |
| -2.73% | Sep 2021 | Sep 2021 | 1 | Oct 2021 | 1 | 2 |
| -2.73% | Jun 2007 | Jul 2007 | 2 | Sep 2007 | 2 | 4 |
Rolling Returns ( more details)
Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns
| Return (*) | Negative Periods |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rolling Period | Average | Best | Worst | |
| 1 Year |
+9.44% |
+46.17% Apr 2020 - Mar 2021 |
-34.04% Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 |
20.19% |
| 2 Years |
+8.53% |
+30.92% Mar 2009 - Feb 2011 |
-18.55% Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
12.22% |
| 3 Years |
+8.35% |
+20.22% Apr 2003 - Mar 2006 |
-9.55% Mar 2006 - Feb 2009 |
10.33% |
| 5 Years |
+8.22% |
+17.42% Mar 2009 - Feb 2014 |
-1.78% Mar 2004 - Feb 2009 |
1.07% |
| 7 Years |
+8.12% |
+14.87% Oct 1990 - Sep 1997 |
+1.23% Mar 2002 - Feb 2009 |
0.00% |
| 10 Years |
+8.02% |
+13.10% Oct 1990 - Sep 2000 |
+1.74% Mar 1999 - Feb 2009 |
0.00% |
| 15 Years |
+7.60% |
+11.92% Feb 1986 - Jan 2001 |
+4.83% Mar 1994 - Feb 2009 |
0.00% |
| 20 Years |
+7.61% |
+10.46% Feb 1986 - Jan 2006 |
+4.80% Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 |
0.00% |
* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods
If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.
Seasonality
Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio Seasonality: in which months is it better to invest?
In the table below, the average monthly return is represented.
Below each return, it's also mentioned the probability of obtaining a positive monthly result (Win %).
Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
| Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Average Win % |
0.71 64% |
0.88 61% |
0.97 69% |
1.77 78% |
0.72 69% |
0.42 53% |
0.83 56% |
-0.04 67% |
-0.15 53% |
0.33 64% |
1.14 72% |
1.85 83% |
| Best Year |
9.3 1987 |
7.6 1991 |
6.5 1986 |
9.8 2009 |
7.2 1990 |
5.2 2019 |
7.1 2009 |
5.3 1986 |
7.7 2010 |
9.0 2011 |
10.1 2020 |
6.9 1999 |
| Worst Year |
-8.3 2009 |
-7.7 2009 |
-11.7 2020 |
-3.6 2000 |
-6.5 2010 |
-5.9 2008 |
-7.4 2002 |
-11.5 1998 |
-7.6 2001 |
-16.1 1987 |
-5.5 2008 |
-6.4 2018 |
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Monthly/Yearly Returns
Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio monthly and yearly returns: how is the distribution of the returns recorded so far?
Yearly Return(%) |
Monthly Return(%) |
|||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Infl.Adj | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| 2021 |
+15.39 | +7.72 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | -0.4 | 1.6 | -2.7 | 3.4 | -2.0 | 3.2 |
| 2020 |
+11.61 | +10.17 | -1.6 | -5.8 | -11.7 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | -0.6 | 10.1 | 4.5 |
| 2019 |
+19.82 | +17.17 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 2.8 | -5.2 | 5.2 | 0.2 | -2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.6 |
| 2018 |
-6.41 | -8.18 | 3.4 | -3.3 | -0.2 | 0.4 | 1.8 | -0.1 | 2.4 | 1.7 | -0.7 | -6.5 | 1.3 | -6.4 |
| 2017 |
+15.70 | +13.32 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.7 | -0.3 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 2016 |
+11.03 | +8.80 | -4.1 | -0.3 | 5.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | -2.1 | 3.5 | 1.9 |
| 2015 |
-1.35 | -1.98 | -1.5 | 4.3 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | -0.9 | 0.2 | -4.8 | -2.5 | 5.1 | 0.4 | -2.3 |
| 2014 |
+3.78 | +3.11 | -3.2 | 3.6 | 0.4 | -0.2 | 1.2 | 2.1 | -2.1 | 2.4 | -2.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | -0.4 |
| 2013 |
+22.10 | +20.28 | 3.4 | 0.4 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | -1.3 | 4.4 | -1.9 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| 2012 |
+12.91 | +10.96 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.3 | -0.9 | -6.1 | 3.6 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | -0.9 | 1.0 | 2.4 |
| 2011 |
-2.59 | -5.48 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 2.9 | -1.2 | -1.2 | -1.8 | -5.4 | -7.5 | 9.0 | -0.5 | 0.0 |
| 2010 |
+14.15 | +12.53 | -2.9 | 2.2 | 5.1 | 1.6 | -6.5 | -3.5 | 5.9 | -3.9 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 5.7 |
| 2009 |
+22.80 | +19.44 | -8.3 | -7.7 | 6.0 | 9.8 | 5.7 | -0.2 | 7.1 | 2.4 | 3.9 | -2.8 | 3.7 | 2.8 |
| 2008 |
-26.26 | -26.24 | -4.4 | -1.0 | -0.1 | 3.4 | 1.7 | -5.9 | -0.5 | 0.3 | -6.4 | -13.6 | -5.5 | 3.3 |
| 2007 |
+7.14 | +2.92 | 1.2 | -0.4 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.8 | -0.6 | -2.1 | 1.0 | 3.1 | 2.5 | -3.6 | -1.0 |
| 2006 |
+15.27 | +12.44 | 4.4 | -0.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | -3.0 | 0.0 | -0.4 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| 2005 |
+7.66 | +4.19 | -1.7 | 2.4 | -1.8 | -2.3 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 0.2 | 1.6 | -2.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2004 |
+13.66 | +9.99 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.2 | -2.4 | 1.0 | 2.5 | -3.0 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 5.0 | 2.5 |
| 2003 |
+27.39 | +24.85 | -2.4 | -1.7 | -0.1 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 2.4 | -0.1 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 4.0 |
| 2002 |
-10.88 | -13.04 | -1.0 | -0.6 | 4.1 | -0.2 | -0.9 | -3.9 | -7.4 | 0.5 | -6.1 | 3.9 | 3.5 | -2.5 |
| 2001 |
-4.49 | -6.00 | 2.7 | -5.5 | -4.2 | 5.7 | 0.0 | -0.8 | -0.6 | -2.3 | -7.6 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.2 |
| 2000 |
-4.63 | -7.79 | -3.3 | 4.6 | 1.4 | -3.6 | -2.5 | 4.3 | -2.1 | 4.0 | -3.1 | -1.8 | -5.3 | 3.4 |
| 1999 |
+18.99 | +15.89 | 1.3 | -3.6 | 2.8 | 4.5 | -1.6 | 4.0 | -0.8 | -1.0 | -0.3 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 6.9 |
| 1998 |
+12.24 | +10.47 | 0.9 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 0.7 | -2.1 | 1.1 | -1.8 | -11.5 | 3.2 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 3.9 |
| 1997 |
+15.88 | +13.94 | 1.6 | 0.1 | -2.3 | 1.9 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 4.2 | -3.1 | 4.9 | -4.1 | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| 1996 |
+12.52 | +8.84 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 1.4 | -0.6 | -4.1 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 0.4 | 4.1 | -0.4 |
| 1995 |
+20.57 | +17.59 | -0.2 | 1.1 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 3.7 | 0.0 | 2.1 | -1.6 | 3.1 | 2.3 |
| 1994 |
+2.49 | -0.11 | 4.4 | -0.9 | -3.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | -0.8 | 1.6 | 2.8 | -1.5 | 1.3 | -3.5 | 1.3 |
| 1993 |
+16.21 | +13.03 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 2.6 | -0.5 | 1.3 | 3.5 | -0.3 | 1.6 | -3.7 | 2.9 |
| 1992 |
+4.40 | +1.39 | 0.8 | 0.4 | -3.1 | 0.0 | 2.3 | -2.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | -0.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 |
| 1991 |
+24.11 | +20.52 | 3.8 | 7.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 2.4 | -4.3 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | -3.5 | 6.5 |
| 1990 |
-9.08 | -14.43 | -4.7 | -0.8 | -0.5 | -2.1 | 7.2 | 0.1 | -0.3 | -7.8 | -6.2 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| 1989 |
+18.78 | +13.51 | 3.8 | -0.3 | 0.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | -0.6 | 6.7 | 0.1 | 1.3 | -2.5 | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| 1988 |
+17.83 | +12.86 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | -0.9 | 2.5 | -0.1 | -3.0 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| 1987 |
+8.39 | +3.89 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 4.2 | -1.6 | -16.1 | -2.8 | 4.2 |
| 1986 |
+25.39 | +23.92 | 1.3 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 3.0 | -1.7 | 5.3 | -4.1 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 0.4 |
* Note: Portofolio Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
In particular, it has been used:
- IJR - iShares Core S&P Small-Cap: simulated historical serie, up to December 2000
- VEU - Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
- VV - Vanguard Large-Cap: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
- SHY - iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2002