Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Aggressive Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns

Data Source: from January 1985 to February 2023 (~38 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 28 February 2023
Live Update: Mar 20 2023, 04:00PM Eastern Time

PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)

0.43%

1 Day

Mar 20 2023, 04:00PM Eastern Time

0.05%

Current Month

March 2023

The Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Aggressive Portfolio is a High Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 12 ETFs.

It's exposed for 69% on the Stock Market.

In the last 30 Years, the Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Aggressive Portfolio obtained a 7.86% compound annual return, with a 11.04% standard deviation.

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Aggressive Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

        69% Stocks
      
        31% Fixed Income
      
        0% Commodities

The Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Aggressive Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight	Ticker	ETF Name	Investment Themes
25.00 %	VUG	Vanguard Growth	Equity, U.S., Large Cap, Growth
17.00 %	VEU	Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US	Equity, Global ex-US, Large Cap
16.00 %	VTV	Vanguard Value	Equity, U.S., Large Cap, Value
7.00 %	EEM	iShares MSCI Emerging Markets	Equity, Emerging Markets, Large Cap
2.00 %	IJS	iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value	Equity, U.S., Small Cap, Value
2.00 %	IJT	iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Growth	Equity, U.S., Small Cap, Growth
9.00 %	IEI	iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond	Bond, U.S., Intermediate-Term
9.00 %	LQD	iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond	Bond, U.S., All-Term
7.00 %	MBB	iShares MBS	Bond, U.S., Long-Term
3.00 %	HYG	iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond	Bond, U.S., Intermediate-Term
2.00 %	BIL	SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill	Bond, U.S., Ultra Short-Term
1.00 %	BNDX	Vanguard Total International Bond	Bond, Developed Markets, All-Term

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Feb 28, 2023

The Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Aggressive Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Portfolio returns are calculated in USD, assuming:

No fees or capital gain taxes
a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (at every January 1st). How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
the reinvestment of dividends

March 2023 return is calculated on the hypothesis of a newly built portfolio, with the starting asset allocation.

MERRILL LYNCH EDGE SELECT MODERATELY AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO RETURNS

Consolidated returns as of 28 February 2023

Live Update: Mar 20 2023, 04:00PM Eastern Time

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	Chg (%)		Return (%)	Return (%) as of Feb 28, 2023
	1 Day	*Time ET^()**	Mar 2023	1M	6M	1Y	5Y	10Y	30Y	MAX (~38Y)
Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Aggressive Portfolio	0.43		-0.05	-3.08	1.63	-8.70	5.20	7.05	7.86	9.63
US Inflation Adjusted return				-3.62	0.05	-13.90	1.29	4.31	5.22	6.65
*Components*
VUG Vanguard Growth	0.30	04:00PM Mar 20 2023	2.76	-1.42	-2.73	-15.85	10.66	13.18	10.01	9.68
VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US	1.01	04:00PM Mar 20 2023	-1.77	-4.39	7.42	-7.28	1.97	4.24	5.50	8.03
VTV Vanguard Value	1.39	04:00PM Mar 20 2023	-3.59	-3.24	5.02	-0.39	8.39	11.01	9.29	9.93
EEM iShares MSCI Emerging Markets	0.37	04:00PM Mar 20 2023	-1.26	-7.57	-1.58	-16.23	-2.35	0.92	5.83	7.41
IJS iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value	1.22	04:00PM Mar 20 2023	-9.35	-1.73	9.45	-0.24	7.77	10.41	10.74	12.91
IJT iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Growth	1.55	04:00PM Mar 20 2023	-6.38	-0.97	3.00	-7.24	7.17	10.81	9.69	9.95
IEI iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond	-0.28	04:00PM Mar 20 2023	2.70	-2.39	-2.15	-8.08	0.46	0.58	4.20	4.48
LQD iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond	-0.30	04:00PM Mar 20 2023	2.01	-4.17	-1.27	-12.35	1.05	1.96	5.16	4.62
MBB iShares MBS	-0.83	04:00PM Mar 20 2023	1.66	-2.99	-2.71	-9.19	-0.20	0.61	3.97	5.30
HYG iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond	-0.27	04:00PM Mar 20 2023	-1.23	-2.36	2.33	-6.65	1.94	2.87	5.49	7.38
BIL SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill	0.01	04:00PM Mar 20 2023	0.30	0.35	1.68	2.07	1.18	0.66	2.19	3.99
BNDX Vanguard Total International Bond	-0.08	04:00PM Mar 20 2023	2.83	-1.50	-1.94	-9.67	0.01	1.50	4.87	6.58

Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1985

(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)

US Inflation is updated to Feb 2023. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 6.04% , 5Y: 3.86% , 10Y: 2.63% , 30Y: 2.51%

Live update: World Markets and Indexes

Portfolio Metrics as of Feb 28, 2023

Metrics of Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Aggressive Portfolio, updated as of 28 February 2023.

Portfolio metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:

No fees or capital gain taxes
a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (at every January 1st). How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
the reinvestment of dividends

MERRILL LYNCH EDGE SELECT MODERATELY AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO

Portfolio Metrics

Data Source: 1 January 1985 - 28 February 2023 (~38 years)

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	Metrics as of Feb 28, 2023
	1M	3M	6M	1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	20Y	30Y	MAX (~38Y)
Portfolio Return (%)	-3.08	-0.38	1.63	-8.70	5.66	5.20	7.05	8.14	7.86	9.63
US Inflation (%)	0.56	1.05	1.58	6.04	5.16	3.86	2.63	2.51	2.51	2.79
Infl. Adjusted Return (%)	-3.62	-1.42	0.05	-13.90	0.48	1.29	4.31	5.48	5.22	6.65
Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%)				17.60	15.14	13.35	10.80	11.27	11.04	11.31
Sharpe Ratio				-0.61	0.33	0.30	0.59	0.62	0.51	0.50
Sortino Ratio				-0.90	0.44	0.40	0.79	0.82	0.67	0.65
MAXIMUM DRAWDOWN
Drawdown Depth (%)				-17.44	-22.31	-22.31	-22.31	-38.23	-38.23	-38.23
Start (yyyy mm)				2022 04	2022 01	2022 01	2022 01	2007 11	2007 11	2007 11
Bottom (yyyy mm)				2022 09	2022 09	2022 09	2022 09	2009 02	2009 02	2009 02
Start to Bottom (# months)				6	9	9	9	16	16	16
Start to Recovery (# months) in progress				> 11	> 14	> 14	> 14	38	38	38
ROLLING PERIOD RETURNS - Annualized
Best Return (%)				44.52	21.00	20.42	15.12	12.27	10.58
Worst Return (%)				-32.30	-8.55	-1.13	1.63	5.27	7.71
% Positive Periods				82%	92%	99%	100%	100%	100%
MONTHS
Positive	0	1	3	6	22	37	79	158	233	302
Negative	1	2	3	6	14	23	41	82	127	156
% Positive	0%	33%	50%	50%	61%	62%	66%	66%	65%	66%
WITHDRAWAL RATES (WR)
Safe WR (%)					38.55	22.63	13.95	9.79	7.88	10.89
Perpetual WR (%)					0.47	1.28	4.13	5.20	4.96	6.24

Terms and Definitions

Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio
Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean
Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
Maximum Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.
Rolling Returns: returns over a time frame (best, worst, % of positive returns).
Pos./Neg. Months: number of months with positive/negative return.
Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the original portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money (dollar amount withdrawal).
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year, while retaining the inflation adjusted portfolio balance (percentage withdrawal).

Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.

Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1.

If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.

Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.

COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS

Monthly correlations as of 28 February 2023

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Asset	VUG	VEU	VTV	EEM	IJS	IJT	IEI	LQD	MBB	HYG	BIL	BNDX
VUG	1.00	0.79	0.79	0.60	0.87	0.94	0.61	0.80	0.74	0.87	0.06	0.86
VEU	0.79	1.00	0.81	0.93	0.80	0.80	0.81	0.93	0.89	0.84	0.25	0.84
VTV	0.79	0.81	1.00	0.59	0.92	0.90	0.52	0.68	0.61	0.85	-0.04	0.70
EEM	0.60	0.93	0.59	1.00	0.58	0.57	0.80	0.87	0.86	0.62	0.28	0.71
IJS	0.87	0.80	0.92	0.58	1.00	0.96	0.62	0.72	0.67	0.88	0.01	0.81
IJT	0.94	0.80	0.90	0.57	0.96	1.00	0.65	0.78	0.73	0.93	0.00	0.88
IEI	0.61	0.81	0.52	0.80	0.62	0.65	1.00	0.93	0.96	0.75	0.13	0.88
LQD	0.80	0.93	0.68	0.87	0.72	0.78	0.93	1.00	0.98	0.86	0.19	0.91
MBB	0.74	0.89	0.61	0.86	0.67	0.73	0.96	0.98	1.00	0.80	0.12	0.90
HYG	0.87	0.84	0.85	0.62	0.88	0.93	0.75	0.86	0.80	1.00	0.05	0.88
BIL	0.06	0.25	-0.04	0.28	0.01	0.00	0.13	0.19	0.12	0.05	1.00	0.08
BNDX	0.86	0.84	0.70	0.71	0.81	0.88	0.88	0.91	0.90	0.88	0.08	1.00


Asset	VUG	VEU	VTV	EEM	IJS	IJT	IEI	LQD	MBB	HYG	BIL	BNDX
VUG	1.00	0.79	0.79	0.65	0.76	0.86	0.22	0.69	0.46	0.80	-0.18	0.56
VEU	0.79	1.00	0.87	0.92	0.85	0.84	0.15	0.69	0.44	0.83	-0.13	0.46
VTV	0.79	0.87	1.00	0.70	0.90	0.88	-0.07	0.49	0.21	0.80	-0.23	0.33
EEM	0.65	0.92	0.70	1.00	0.72	0.71	0.17	0.65	0.45	0.72	-0.12	0.41
IJS	0.76	0.85	0.90	0.72	1.00	0.94	-0.08	0.47	0.21	0.79	-0.24	0.33
IJT	0.86	0.84	0.88	0.71	0.94	1.00	0.05	0.58	0.31	0.83	-0.22	0.44
IEI	0.22	0.15	-0.07	0.17	-0.08	0.05	1.00	0.67	0.89	0.25	0.18	0.71
LQD	0.69	0.69	0.49	0.65	0.47	0.58	0.67	1.00	0.79	0.78	0.02	0.87
MBB	0.46	0.44	0.21	0.45	0.21	0.31	0.89	0.79	1.00	0.50	0.12	0.78
HYG	0.80	0.83	0.80	0.72	0.79	0.83	0.25	0.78	0.50	1.00	-0.14	0.67
BIL	-0.18	-0.13	-0.23	-0.12	-0.24	-0.22	0.18	0.02	0.12	-0.14	1.00	0.02
BNDX	0.56	0.46	0.33	0.41	0.33	0.44	0.71	0.87	0.78	0.67	0.02	1.00


Asset	VUG	VEU	VTV	EEM	IJS	IJT	IEI	LQD	MBB	HYG	BIL	BNDX
VUG	1.00	0.80	0.80	0.65	0.73	0.82	0.13	0.59	0.37	0.76	-0.13	0.45
VEU	0.80	1.00	0.83	0.91	0.75	0.75	0.10	0.60	0.36	0.79	-0.08	0.36
VTV	0.80	0.83	1.00	0.66	0.88	0.85	-0.14	0.41	0.14	0.75	-0.18	0.25
EEM	0.65	0.91	0.66	1.00	0.62	0.59	0.14	0.57	0.36	0.67	-0.06	0.33
IJS	0.73	0.75	0.88	0.62	1.00	0.95	-0.14	0.37	0.12	0.73	-0.19	0.23
IJT	0.82	0.75	0.85	0.59	0.95	1.00	-0.05	0.45	0.19	0.75	-0.18	0.31
IEI	0.13	0.10	-0.14	0.14	-0.14	-0.05	1.00	0.68	0.87	0.23	0.10	0.72
LQD	0.59	0.60	0.41	0.57	0.37	0.45	0.68	1.00	0.78	0.73	0.00	0.85
MBB	0.37	0.36	0.14	0.36	0.12	0.19	0.87	0.78	1.00	0.46	0.05	0.77
HYG	0.76	0.79	0.75	0.67	0.73	0.75	0.23	0.73	0.46	1.00	-0.11	0.59
BIL	-0.13	-0.08	-0.18	-0.06	-0.19	-0.18	0.10	0.00	0.05	-0.11	1.00	-0.05
BNDX	0.45	0.36	0.25	0.33	0.23	0.31	0.72	0.85	0.77	0.59	-0.05	1.00


Asset	VUG	VEU	VTV	EEM	IJS	IJT	IEI	LQD	MBB	HYG	BIL	BNDX
VUG	1.00	0.76	0.83	0.67	0.73	0.78	-0.09	0.31	0.14	0.63	-0.03	0.15
VEU	0.76	1.00	0.80	0.85	0.73	0.72	-0.14	0.33	0.10	0.67	-0.04	0.16
VTV	0.83	0.80	1.00	0.70	0.85	0.76	-0.15	0.28	0.06	0.65	-0.01	0.11
EEM	0.67	0.85	0.70	1.00	0.66	0.67	-0.10	0.29	0.10	0.60	-0.03	0.16
IJS	0.73	0.73	0.85	0.66	1.00	0.90	-0.19	0.24	0.02	0.67	-0.03	0.11
IJT	0.78	0.72	0.76	0.67	0.90	1.00	-0.20	0.21	0.02	0.62	-0.05	0.12
IEI	-0.09	-0.14	-0.15	-0.10	-0.19	-0.20	1.00	0.63	0.79	0.05	0.18	0.55
LQD	0.31	0.33	0.28	0.29	0.24	0.21	0.63	1.00	0.68	0.63	0.00	0.68
MBB	0.14	0.10	0.06	0.10	0.02	0.02	0.79	0.68	1.00	0.26	0.19	0.53
HYG	0.63	0.67	0.65	0.60	0.67	0.62	0.05	0.63	0.26	1.00	-0.03	0.38
BIL	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.18	0.00	0.19	-0.03	1.00	0.06
BNDX	0.15	0.16	0.11	0.16	0.11	0.12	0.55	0.68	0.53	0.38	0.06	1.00


Asset	VUG	VEU	VTV	EEM	IJS	IJT	IEI	LQD	MBB	HYG	BIL	BNDX
VUG	1.00	0.67	0.85	0.66	0.76	0.81	0.02	0.32	0.18	0.61	0.02	0.20
VEU	0.67	1.00	0.71	0.70	0.65	0.63	-0.02	0.31	0.13	0.60	0.02	0.20
VTV	0.85	0.71	1.00	0.68	0.86	0.78	-0.03	0.29	0.13	0.64	0.02	0.18
EEM	0.66	0.70	0.68	1.00	0.64	0.64	0.02	0.28	0.15	0.54	0.03	0.19
IJS	0.76	0.65	0.86	0.64	1.00	0.91	-0.11	0.23	0.06	0.67	-0.02	0.14
IJT	0.81	0.63	0.78	0.64	0.91	1.00	-0.11	0.20	0.05	0.61	-0.03	0.14
IEI	0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.02	-0.11	-0.11	1.00	0.73	0.82	0.13	0.24	0.66
LQD	0.32	0.31	0.29	0.28	0.23	0.20	0.73	1.00	0.73	0.58	0.09	0.74
MBB	0.18	0.13	0.13	0.15	0.06	0.05	0.82	0.73	1.00	0.30	0.27	0.63
HYG	0.61	0.60	0.64	0.54	0.67	0.61	0.13	0.58	0.30	1.00	0.01	0.39
BIL	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.02	-0.03	0.24	0.09	0.27	0.01	1.00	0.15
BNDX	0.20	0.20	0.18	0.19	0.14	0.14	0.66	0.74	0.63	0.39	0.15	1.00

Portfolio Dividends

In 2022, the Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Aggressive Portfolio granted a 1.79% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Aggressive Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

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Capital Growth as of Feb 28, 2023

An investment of 1000$, since March 1993, now would be worth 9670.39$, with a total return of 867.04% (7.86% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 4599.89$, with a net total return of 359.99% (5.22% annualized).

An investment of 1000$, since January 1985, now would be worth 33407.67$, with a total return of 3240.77% (9.63% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 11693.35$, with a net total return of 1069.34% (6.65% annualized).

Drawdowns

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	Drawdown period			Recovery period		Total
Drawdown	Start	Bottom	#Months	End	#Months	#Months
-38.23%	Nov 2007	Feb 2009	16	Dec 2010	22	38
-25.60%	Sep 2000	Sep 2002	25	Jan 2004	16	41
-22.31%	Jan 2022	Sep 2022	9	in progress	5	14
-14.29%	Jan 2020	Mar 2020	3	Jul 2020	4	7
-13.38%	May 2011	Sep 2011	5	Feb 2012	5	10
-10.89%	May 1998	Aug 1998	4	Nov 1998	3	7
-9.25%	Oct 2018	Dec 2018	3	Apr 2019	4	7
-8.54%	Jun 2015	Feb 2016	9	Jul 2016	5	14
-6.49%	Feb 1994	Mar 1994	2	Mar 1995	12	14
-5.96%	Apr 2012	May 2012	2	Sep 2012	4	6
-5.14%	Aug 1997	Aug 1997	1	Feb 1998	6	7
-4.85%	Apr 2000	May 2000	2	Aug 2000	3	5
-4.24%	May 2019	May 2019	1	Jun 2019	1	2
-4.23%	Feb 2018	Apr 2018	3	Aug 2018	4	7
-3.83%	Jan 2000	Jan 2000	1	Mar 2000	2	3
-3.62%	Sep 2020	Oct 2020	2	Nov 2020	1	3
-3.32%	Mar 2005	Apr 2005	2	Jun 2005	2	4
-3.28%	Sep 2021	Sep 2021	1	Oct 2021	1	2
-3.20%	Jul 1996	Jul 1996	1	Sep 1996	2	3
-3.19%	Mar 2004	Jul 2004	5	Oct 2004	3	8

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	Drawdown period			Recovery period		Total
Drawdown	Start	Bottom	#Months	End	#Months	#Months
-38.23%	Nov 2007	Feb 2009	16	Dec 2010	22	38
-25.60%	Sep 2000	Sep 2002	25	Jan 2004	16	41
-22.31%	Jan 2022	Sep 2022	9	in progress	5	14
-19.36%	Sep 1987	Nov 1987	3	Jan 1989	14	17
-14.29%	Jan 2020	Mar 2020	3	Jul 2020	4	7
-13.38%	May 2011	Sep 2011	5	Feb 2012	5	10
-13.23%	Aug 1990	Sep 1990	2	Feb 1991	5	7
-10.89%	May 1998	Aug 1998	4	Nov 1998	3	7
-9.25%	Oct 2018	Dec 2018	3	Apr 2019	4	7
-8.54%	Jun 2015	Feb 2016	9	Jul 2016	5	14
-7.54%	Jan 1990	Apr 1990	4	Jun 1990	2	6
-6.49%	Feb 1994	Mar 1994	2	Mar 1995	12	14
-5.96%	Apr 2012	May 2012	2	Sep 2012	4	6
-5.19%	Sep 1986	Sep 1986	1	Jan 1987	4	5
-5.14%	Aug 1997	Aug 1997	1	Feb 1998	6	7
-4.85%	Apr 2000	May 2000	2	Aug 2000	3	5
-4.24%	May 2019	May 2019	1	Jun 2019	1	2
-4.23%	Feb 2018	Apr 2018	3	Aug 2018	4	7
-3.84%	Jun 1991	Jun 1991	1	Aug 1991	2	3
-3.83%	Jan 2000	Jan 2000	1	Mar 2000	2	3

Rolling Returns ( more details)

Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Aggressive Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns

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Rolling Period	*Return ()**			Negative Periods
Rolling Period	Average (%)	Best (%)	Worst (%)	Negative Periods
1 Year	10.23	44.52 Mar 2009 - Feb 2010	-32.30 Mar 2008 - Feb 2009	18.34%
2 Years	9.80	31.66 Sep 1985 - Aug 1987	-16.37 Mar 2007 - Feb 2009	11.72%
3 Years	9.46	21.00 Mar 2009 - Feb 2012	-8.55 Apr 2000 - Mar 2003	8.04%
5 Years	9.24	20.42 Jan 1985 - Dec 1989	-1.13 Mar 2004 - Feb 2009	0.50%
7 Years	9.09	18.16 Jan 1985 - Dec 1991	1.63 Mar 2002 - Feb 2009	0.00%
10 Years	8.90	15.12 Oct 1985 - Sep 1995	1.63 Mar 1999 - Feb 2009	0.00%
15 Years	8.39	15.78 Jan 1985 - Dec 1999	5.31 Sep 2000 - Aug 2015	0.00%
20 Years	8.35	12.27 Jan 1985 - Dec 2004	5.27 Apr 2000 - Mar 2020	0.00%
30 Years	8.96	10.58 Jan 1985 - Dec 2014	7.71 Oct 1992 - Sep 2022	0.00%

(*) Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Aggressive Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Aggressive Portfolio?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.

For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.

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	Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%)	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Average Gain Frequency	1.75 40%	-1.40 40%	-1.42 60%	1.32 60%	0.43 80%	0.59 60%	2.65 100%	0.56 60%	-2.43 40%	0.46 60%	3.40 80%	0.07 60%
Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100	101.75	100.33	98.90	100.21	100.64	101.23	103.92	104.50	101.96	102.43	105.91	105.98
Best	6.6 2023	1.8 2019	1.7 2021	7.9 2020	3.7 2020	5.2 2019	5.6 2022	4.3 2020	1.2 2019	3.8 2021	8.4 2020	3.5 2020
Worst	-3.9 2022	-4.6 2020	-9.8 2020	-6.9 2022	-4.2 2019	-6.0 2022	0.4 2019	-3.7 2022	-7.8 2022	-5.9 2018	-1.4 2021	-4.9 2018

Monthly Seasonality over the period Mar 2018 - Feb 2023

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	Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%)	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Average Gain Frequency	0.79 40%	-0.09 50%	0.05 70%	1.31 80%	0.58 80%	0.18 60%	2.18 90%	-0.04 60%	-1.08 50%	1.27 70%	2.12 80%	0.16 60%
Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100	100.79	100.70	100.75	102.07	102.66	102.84	105.09	105.04	103.91	105.23	107.45	107.62
Best	6.6 2023	3.7 2015	5.9 2016	7.9 2020	3.7 2020	5.2 2019	5.6 2022	4.3 2020	3.9 2013	5.3 2015	8.4 2020	3.5 2020
Worst	-3.9 2022	-4.6 2020	-9.8 2020	-6.9 2022	-4.2 2019	-6.0 2022	-1.1 2014	-4.8 2015	-7.8 2022	-5.9 2018	-1.4 2021	-4.9 2018

Monthly Seasonality over the period Mar 2013 - Feb 2023

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	Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%)	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Average Gain Frequency	1.07 62%	0.56 59%	0.72 68%	1.50 79%	0.94 68%	0.35 61%	1.25 63%	-0.01 61%	-0.42 55%	0.84 66%	1.35 71%	1.75 79%
Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100	101.07	101.64	102.37	103.90	104.88	105.24	106.55	106.54	106.09	106.98	108.42	110.31
Best	9.4 1987	7.1 1986	6.5 2009	8.6 2009	7.8 1990	5.2 2019	7.0 2009	5.6 1986	6.9 2010	8.2 2011	8.4 2020	10.2 1991
Worst	-6.6 2009	-7.1 2009	-9.8 2020	-6.9 2022	-6.1 2010	-6.0 2022	-5.3 2002	-10.4 1998	-8.1 2008	-14.6 1987	-4.6 2000	-4.9 2018

Monthly Seasonality over the period Jan 1985 - Feb 2023

Monthly/Yearly Returns

Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Aggressive Portfolio data source starts from January 1985: let's focus on monthly and yearly returns.

We are providing two different views:

Histogram: it shows the distribution of the returns recorded so far
Plain Table: it shows the detailed monthly and yearly returns

MONTHLY RETURNS HISTOGRAM

Jan 1985 - Feb 2023

302 Positive Months (66%) - 156 Negative Months (34%)

MONTHLY RETURNS TABLE

Jan 1985 - Feb 2023

(Scroll down to see all data)

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	Yearly Return(%)		Monthly Return(%)
Year	Total	Infl.Adj	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
2023	+3.29	+1.90	6.6	-3.1
2022	-17.08	-22.11	-3.9	-2.4	0.3	-6.9	0.6	-6.0	5.6	-3.7	-7.8	3.8	6.6	-3.6
2021	+12.88	+5.46	0.0	1.4	1.7	3.1	0.9	1.5	0.5	1.8	-3.3	3.8	-1.4	2.5
2020	+16.02	+14.46	-0.3	-4.6	-9.8	7.9	3.7	2.6	4.4	4.3	-2.3	-1.4	8.4	3.5
2019	+22.30	+19.57	6.4	1.8	1.6	2.7	-4.2	5.2	0.4	-0.9	1.2	2.0	2.0	2.7
2018	-5.68	-7.45	3.8	-3.3	-0.9	-0.2	1.1	-0.3	2.4	1.3	0.0	-5.9	1.4	-4.9
2017	+18.60	+16.15	2.2	2.3	0.9	1.3	1.6	0.4	2.2	0.6	1.3	1.7	1.4	1.3
2016	+8.18	+5.98	-3.5	-0.3	5.9	0.7	0.4	0.8	3.1	0.3	0.6	-1.6	0.5	1.3
2015	-1.40	-2.12	-0.6	3.7	-1.4	2.0	0.0	-1.8	0.7	-4.8	-2.0	5.3	-0.3	-1.9
2014	+6.31	+5.51	-2.6	3.6	0.3	0.6	2.0	1.6	-1.1	2.7	-2.5	1.8	1.2	-1.0
2013	+16.88	+15.15	2.6	0.3	1.9	1.8	-0.4	-2.2	3.8	-2.0	3.9	3.2	1.4	1.5
2012	+13.59	+11.65	4.7	3.4	0.9	-0.5	-5.5	3.3	1.0	1.8	2.2	-0.8	0.9	1.8
2011	-0.71	-3.57	0.9	2.1	0.5	3.0	-0.9	-1.1	-0.9	-4.5	-6.6	8.2	-1.0	0.3
2010	+13.09	+11.43	-2.9	2.0	4.5	1.0	-6.1	-2.2	6.1	-2.5	6.9	2.8	-0.9	4.6
2009	+26.40	+23.05	-6.6	-7.1	6.5	8.6	6.3	0.0	7.0	2.0	4.2	-1.9	4.6	1.6
2008	-25.92	-25.99	-4.3	-0.9	-0.5	3.8	1.0	-5.7	-1.2	-0.4	-8.1	-13.0	-3.7	4.8
2007	+9.49	+5.20	1.0	-0.5	1.3	3.0	2.3	-0.5	-1.6	1.2	4.0	3.0	-3.0	-0.8
2006	+14.56	+11.72	3.5	-0.2	1.2	1.8	-3.1	0.0	0.5	2.1	1.3	3.0	2.5	1.3
2005	+8.32	+4.74	-1.3	2.3	-2.2	-1.1	2.5	1.0	2.7	0.4	1.6	-2.2	2.9	1.6
2004	+11.86	+8.33	1.6	1.6	-0.2	-2.9	0.7	1.6	-2.4	1.1	1.8	1.8	3.8	3.0
2003	+25.92	+23.60	-1.9	-0.9	0.1	6.1	4.5	1.5	1.1	2.2	0.7	4.4	1.2	4.4
2002	-9.91	-12.00	-0.8	-0.3	2.6	-1.8	-0.1	-4.3	-5.3	1.0	-6.1	4.4	3.5	-2.4
2001	-6.23	-7.67	3.1	-5.9	-4.8	5.1	0.0	-1.5	-0.5	-2.6	-6.0	2.6	3.9	1.0
2000	-5.49	-8.59	-3.8	1.0	4.6	-3.0	-1.9	3.4	-1.7	3.6	-3.5	-1.1	-4.6	2.0
1999	+18.91	+15.80	1.8	-2.5	3.6	3.7	-2.5	3.9	-1.4	-0.3	-0.7	3.7	2.6	5.8
1998	+16.84	+14.99	1.0	5.2	3.2	0.6	-1.9	1.6	-0.3	-10.4	3.9	5.9	4.3	3.5
1997	+16.20	+14.26	2.8	0.8	-2.6	3.0	4.7	3.7	4.7	-5.1	4.3	-3.9	2.0	1.3
1996	+13.20	+9.56	2.4	0.0	0.6	1.6	1.1	0.5	-3.2	1.3	3.7	1.3	4.7	-1.3
1995	+23.22	+20.17	0.2	1.7	2.5	2.7	3.1	1.2	2.7	-0.2	2.6	-0.4	3.0	2.1
1994	+0.12	-2.49	3.9	-2.4	-4.2	1.2	0.8	-0.8	2.2	3.0	-2.1	1.6	-3.3	0.6
1993	+19.47	+16.27	1.8	1.5	3.6	1.0	1.6	0.9	1.3	3.6	-0.9	2.6	-2.7	3.8
1992	+3.95	+1.02	-0.9	0.1	-2.2	1.3	3.1	-2.3	2.5	-0.2	0.2	-0.6	2.1	1.0
1991	+31.55	+27.64	3.4	6.7	0.9	1.0	3.1	-3.8	3.6	2.8	1.2	2.3	-2.9	10.2
1990	-3.49	-9.05	-4.8	-0.7	-0.5	-1.8	7.8	0.8	1.4	-8.1	-5.6	3.7	2.8	2.4
1989	+26.95	+21.32	4.6	-0.3	0.3	3.8	2.9	-0.3	6.6	1.2	2.1	-1.6	2.3	2.8
1988	+16.80	+11.86	4.8	4.2	-0.9	0.6	-0.7	3.8	-0.5	-2.5	3.3	2.6	0.1	1.2
1987	+4.39	-0.05	9.4	3.4	1.2	0.4	-0.4	2.0	2.9	3.6	-2.2	-14.6	-3.4	4.0
1986	+23.79	+22.45	0.9	7.1	6.2	1.0	1.5	3.1	-1.7	5.6	-5.2	1.5	2.4	-0.3
1985	+32.17	+27.33	6.9	0.8	0.6	0.5	5.9	1.7	-0.1	0.3	-2.0	3.9	5.9	4.4

Portofolio Returns, up to December 2013, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.

In particular, it has been used:

VUG - Vanguard Growth: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
VEU - Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
VTV - Vanguard Value: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
EEM - iShares MSCI Emerging Markets: simulated historical serie, up to December 2003
IJS - iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value: simulated historical serie, up to December 2000
IJT - iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Growth: simulated historical serie, up to December 2000
IEI - iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
LQD - iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2002
MBB - iShares MBS: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
HYG - iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
BIL - SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
BNDX - Vanguard Total International Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2013

Portfolio efficiency

Compared to the Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Aggressive Portfolio, the following portfolios granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.

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	30 Years Stats (%)			% Allocation
Portfolio	Return▾	Dev.Std	Drawdown	Stocks	Bonds	Comm
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Momentum	+9.38	9.41	-32.52	60	40	0
Stocks/Bonds 60/40	+7.88	9.46	-30.55	60	40	0
Edge Select Moderately Aggressive Merrill Lynch	+7.86	11.04	-38.23	69	31	0

Here's a list containing the Best Classic Portfolios, with the highest returns over 30 Years and High Risk categorization.

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	30 Years Stats (%)			% Allocation
Portfolio	Return▾	Dev.Std	Drawdown	Stocks	Bonds	Comm
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Momentum	+9.38	9.41	-32.52	60	40	0
Simple Path to Wealth JL Collins	+8.61	11.61	-38.53	75	25	0
Late Sixties and Beyond Burton Malkiel	+8.34	11.59	-41.80	71	29	0
Yale Endowment David Swensen	+8.23	10.84	-39.48	70	30	0
Seven Value Scott Burns	+8.14	11.26	-41.22	71.5	28.5	0