Vanguard Short-Term Bond (BSV): Historical Returns

Simulation Settings

Category: Fixed Income

Period: January 1871 - June 2025 (~155 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 June 2025
Live Update available for July 2025

Initial Amount: 1$

Currency: USD

Inflation: US

(Change Settings)

Results

30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)

All Data
(1871/01 - 2025/06)

Live
(Jul 2025)

Inflation Adjusted:

Vanguard Short-Term Bond (BSV)

1.00$
Invested Capital
July 1995
2.84$
Final Capital
June 2025
3.54%
Yearly Return
2.23%
Std Deviation
-7.84%
Max Drawdown
36months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Invested Capital
July 1995
1.35$
Final Capital
June 2025
1.00%
Yearly Return
2.23%
Std Deviation
-20.37%
Max Drawdown
61months*
Recovery Period
* in progress

1.00$
Invested Capital
January 1871
923.59$
Final Capital
June 2025
4.52%
Yearly Return
3.98%
Std Deviation
-12.08%
Max Drawdown
10months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Invested Capital
January 1871
35.94$
Final Capital
June 2025
2.35%
Yearly Return
3.98%
Std Deviation
-46.34%
Max Drawdown
155months
Recovery Period

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1 Day: ---

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Month: ---

The Vanguard Short-Term Bond (BSV) ETF covers to the following investment themes:

Asset Class: Bond
Region: North America
Country: U.S.
Bond - Duration: Short Term

As of June 2025, in the previous 30 Years, the Vanguard Short-Term Bond (BSV) ETF obtained a 3.54% compound annual return, with a 2.23% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -7.84% that required 36 months to be recovered.

Disclaimer: The simulations on this website are provided in good faith but should NOT be taken as investment advice. We are not liable for any errors or actions based on this information. The authors of the website are not affiliated with the ETFs/Assets issuers. Content is for informational, educational, illustrative and entertainment purposes only.

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The Vanguard Short-Term Bond (BSV) ETF is part of the following Lazy Portfolios:

Portfolio Name	Author	BSV Weight▾	Currency
Robo Advisor 0	Betterment	20.00%	USD
Aim comfortable trip	Aim Ways	17.00%	USD
Robo Advisor 10 Value Tilt	Betterment	15.40%	USD
Robo Advisor 20 Value Tilt	Betterment	10.70%	USD
Diavola Portfolio	Davide Pisicchio	5.00%	USD
Pepperoni Portfolio	Davide Pisicchio	5.00%	USD
Capricciosa Portfolio	Davide Pisicchio	5.00%	USD
Four Seasons Portfolio	Davide Pisicchio	5.00%	USD
Margherita Portfolio	Davide Pisicchio	5.00%	USD

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Investment Returns as of Jun 30, 2025

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:

no fees or capital gain taxes.
dividend reinvestment, when applicable.
the actual US Inflation rates.

VANGUARD SHORT-TERM BOND (BSV) ETF

Capital Growth

30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)

All Data
(1871/01 - 2025/06)

Inflation Adjusted:

Swipe left to see all data

		Initial Amount $	Final Amount $	Total Return (%)	Annualized (%)
	Vanguard Short-Term Bond (BSV)	1 $	2.84 $	183.54%	3.54%
		Jul 1995	Jun 2025

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		Initial Amount $	Final Amount $	Total Return (%)	Annualized (%)
	Vanguard Short-Term Bond (BSV)	1 $	1.35 $	34.76%	1.00%
		Jul 1995	Jun 2025

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		Initial Amount $	Final Amount $	Total Return (%)	Annualized (%)
	Vanguard Short-Term Bond (BSV)	1 $	923.59 $	92 258.95%	4.52%
		Jan 1871	Jun 2025

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		Initial Amount $	Final Amount $	Total Return (%)	Annualized (%)
	Vanguard Short-Term Bond (BSV)	1 $	35.94 $	3 494.13%	2.35%
		Jan 1871	Jun 2025

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Show Live Returns: July 2025	Chg (%)		Return (%)	Return (%) as of Jun 30, 2025
	1 Day	Time ET^(*)	---	YTD (6M)	1M	6M	1Y	5Y	10Y	30Y	MAX (~155Y)
Investment Return	---		---	3.45	0.77	3.45	6.39	1.17	1.87	3.54	4.52
US Inflation Adjusted Return				2.49	0.77	2.49	3.86	-3.21	-1.14	1.00	2.35
Returns over 1 year are annualized
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
The live monthly return is calculated by assuming, for each asset, the weight defined by the base asset allocation.
US Inflation is updated to May 2025. Pending updates, the monthly inflation is set at 0% for the subsequent periods. Inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 2.43% , 5Y: 4.53% , 10Y: 3.04% , 30Y: 2.51%

In 2024, the Vanguard Short-Term Bond (BSV) ETF granted a 3.38% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Vanguard Short-Term Bond (BSV) ETF: Dividend Yield page.

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Investment Metrics as of Jun 30, 2025

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:

no fees or capital gain taxes.
dividend reinvestment, when applicable.
the actual US Inflation rates.

VANGUARD SHORT-TERM BOND (BSV) ETF

Advanced Metrics

1 January 1871 - 30 June 2025 (~155 years)

Swipe left to see all data

	Metrics as of Jun 30, 2025
	YTD (6M)	1M	3M	6M	1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	20Y	30Y	MAX (~155Y)
Investment Return (%)	3.45	0.77	1.50	3.45	6.39	3.68	1.17	1.87	2.56	3.54	4.52
Growth of 1$	1.03	1.01	1.01	1.03	1.06	1.11	1.06	1.20	1.66	2.84	923.59
Infl. Adjusted Return (%)	2.49	0.77	1.19	2.49	3.86	0.84	-3.21	-1.14	0.00	1.00	2.35
US Inflation (%)	0.94	0.00	0.30	0.94	2.43	2.82	4.53	3.04	2.55	2.51	2.12
Pending updates, the monthly inflation of Jun 2025 and beyond is set at 0%. Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN Inflation Adjusted: Inflation Adjusted:				Current	1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	20Y	30Y	MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)				0.00	-1.05	-3.39	-7.84	-7.84	-7.84	-7.84	-12.08
Start to Recovery (# months)					5	9	36	36	36	36	10
Start (yyyy mm)					2024 10	2022 08	2021 08	2021 08	2021 08	2021 08	1979 07
Start to Bottom (# months)					1	3	15	15	15	15	8
Bottom (yyyy mm)					2024 10	2022 10	2022 10	2022 10	2022 10	2022 10	1980 02
Bottom to End (# months)					4	6	21	21	21	21	2
End (yyyy mm)					2025 02	2023 04	2024 07	2024 07	2024 07	2024 07	1980 04
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)					same	same	same	same	same	same	-7.84
Start to Recovery (# months)					same	same	same	same	same	same	36
Start (yyyy mm)					2024 10	2022 08	2021 08	2021 08	2021 08	2021 08	2021 08
Start to Bottom (# months)					1	3	15	15	15	15	15
Bottom (yyyy mm)					2024 10	2022 10	2022 10	2022 10	2022 10	2022 10	2022 10
Bottom to End (# months)					4	6	21	21	21	21	21
End (yyyy mm)					2025 02	2023 04	2024 07	2024 07	2024 07	2024 07	2024 07
Longest negative period (# months)					4	15	48	50	50	50	50
Start (yyyy mm)					2024 10	2022 08	2020 07	2019 09	2019 09	2019 09	2019 09
End (yyyy mm)					2025 01	2023 10	2024 06	2023 10	2023 10	2023 10	2023 10
Annualized Return (%)					-0.60	-0.50	-0.10	-0.12	-0.12	-0.12	-0.12
Adjusting for units held makes the drawdown reflect real performance, just like in the no-cash-flow case.
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)				-15.19	-1.60	-4.68	-20.24	-20.37	-20.37	-20.37	-46.34
Start to Recovery (# months)				61*	7	26	60*	61*	61*	61*	155
Start (yyyy mm)					2024 10	2022 08	2020 07	2020 06	2020 06	2020 06	1915 04
Start to Bottom (# months)					4	15	40	41	41	41	63
Bottom (yyyy mm)					2025 01	2023 10	2023 10	2023 10	2023 10	2023 10	1920 06
Bottom to End (# months)					3	11	20	20	20	20	92
End (yyyy mm)					2025 04	2024 09	-	-	-	-	1928 02
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)					same	same	same	same	-5.66	-5.66	-40.90
Start to Recovery (# months)					same	same	same	same	113	113	553
Start (yyyy mm)					2024 10	2022 08	2020 07	2020 06	2010 11	2010 11	1939 06
Start to Bottom (# months)					4	15	40	41	96	96	169
Bottom (yyyy mm)					2025 01	2023 10	2023 10	2023 10	2018 10	2018 10	1953 06
Bottom to End (# months)					3	11	20	20	17	17	384
End (yyyy mm)					2025 04	2024 09	-	-	2020 03	2020 03	1985 06
Longest negative period (# months)					6	31	60*	120*	239	272	621
Start (yyyy mm)					2024 08	2022 08	2020 07	2015 07	2005 07	2001 09	1932 10
End (yyyy mm)					2025 01	2025 02	2025 06	2025 06	2025 05	2024 04	1984 06
Annualized Return (%)					-0.08	-0.09	-3.21	-1.14	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
Adjusting for units held makes the drawdown reflect real performance, just like in the no-cash-flow case.
RISK INDICATORS					1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	20Y	30Y	MAX
Standard Deviation (%)					2.29	3.13	2.85	2.27	2.35	2.23	3.98
Sharpe Ratio					0.76	-0.26	-0.53	0.02	0.43	0.57	0.13
Sortino Ratio					0.95	-0.35	-0.74	0.03	0.66	0.83	0.20
Ulcer Index					0.39	1.08	3.36	2.42	1.75	1.44	1.47
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation					2.79	1.18	0.41	0.82	1.09	1.58	1.13
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown					6.06	1.09	0.15	0.24	0.33	0.45	0.37
Positive Months (%)					75.00	66.66	53.33	60.83	66.25	70.83	69.90
Positive Months					9	24	32	73	159	255	1296
Negative Months					3	12	28	47	81	105	558
LONG TERM RETURNS Inflation Adjusted: Inflation Adjusted:					1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	20Y	30Y	MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized								1.87	3.29	5.52	12.83
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized								1.87	0.74	0.74	0.74
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized								-1.14	1.48	3.02	9.26
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized								-1.14	-1.76	-1.76	-4.69
TIMEFRAMES Inflation Adjusted: Inflation Adjusted:		1M	3M	6M	1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	20Y	30Y	MAX
··· As of Jun 2025 - Over the previous 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					11.60	7.77	7.05	5.52	4.38	3.54
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					-7.30	-1.67	0.46	0.74	2.21	3.54
Positive Periods (%)					90.8	92.9	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					9.73	5.42	4.50	3.02	2.09	1.00
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					-14.33	-7.00	-3.39	-1.76	-0.35	1.00
Positive Periods (%)					64.7	66.1	70.7	79.2	73.5	100.0
95% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative		0.77	0.96	0.85	0.61	1.94	0.00	0.00	0.00
95% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%)		1.04	1.42	1.50	4.25	3.50	0.00	0.00	0.00
99% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative		1.21	1.72	1.92	5.88	4.71	0.00	0.00	0.00
99% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%)		1.49	2.21	2.61	7.16	4.84	0.00	0.00	0.00
Short term VaRs: analytical \| 1+ year VaRs: historical data
Safe Withdrawal Rate (%)					92.73	29.13	17.32	9.43	5.28	4.49
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%)					---	---	---	---	---	1.16
% based on initial capital, inflation-adj. monthly withdrawals afterwards \| Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
··· All available data (Jan 1871 - Jun 2025)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					34.01	19.92	17.18	12.83	9.82	8.48
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					-7.30	-1.67	0.46	0.74	1.38	2.01
Positive Periods (%)					91.1	98.4	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					30.78	17.68	16.55	9.26	8.61	6.60
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					-19.79	-12.84	-11.52	-4.69	-2.33	-0.97
Positive Periods (%)					64.4	72.1	73.1	74.8	82.1	87.4
95% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative		1.52	2.15	2.38	0.71	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
95% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%)		1.99	2.98	3.55	2.43	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
99% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative		2.30	3.51	4.30	4.05	1.86	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
99% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%)		2.80	4.37	5.52	5.38	3.32	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Short term VaRs: analytical \| 1+ year VaRs: historical data
Safe Withdrawal Rate (%)					88.56	26.68	14.36	7.66	3.51	2.38
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%)					---	---	---	---	---	---
% based on initial capital, inflation-adj. monthly withdrawals afterwards \| Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com

Terms and Definitions

Annualized Portfolio Return: the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio. When cashflows are involved, it is calculated using the Money-Weighted Rate of Return (MWRR), based on the Modified Dietz formula.
Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration. When cashflows are involved, portfolio values are normalized by the invested capital (i.e. owned quotes) at each time step: this isolates the effect of market performance from capital contributions, avoiding misleading drawdowns caused by large inflows that artificially lift portfolio value and, as a result, the drawdowns match the ones without cash flows.
Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
Value at Risk (VaR): it's an evaluation of a cumulative worst-case loss (in absolute value), associated with a probability (95%-99%) and a time horizon. For short term, it's calculated based on the expected return and standard deviation, assuming a normal distribution of monthly returns. For long term is retrieved by the historical rolling return data.
Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR): it represents the average expected loss if that worst-case threshold (95%-99%) is ever crossed.
Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money in any case (money amount withdrawal).
For instance: Your initial invested capital is 100.000$; withdrawal rate (annualized) is 4%. This means that, in the first month, you will withdraw 100.000 * 4% * 1/12 = 333.33$. The second month, you’ll withdraw 333.33$ plus the inflation monthly rate. You’ll continue adjusting your withdraw monthly for inflation.
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.

Correlations as of Jun 30, 2025

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of two assets move in relation to each other. It is a statistical measure that describes the extent to which the returns of one asset are related to the returns of another asset.

The following table shows the monthly correlations of Vanguard Short-Term Bond (BSV) ETF vs the main Asset Classes, over different timeframes. Columns are sortable (click on table header to sort).

VANGUARD SHORT-TERM BOND (BSV) ETF

Monthly correlations as of 30 June 2025

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		Correlation vs BSV
	Asset Class	1 Year	5 Years	10 Years	30 Years
VTI	US Total Stock Market	0.05	0.45	0.24	0.07
SPY	US Large Cap Blend	0.04	0.46	0.25	0.08
IJH	US Mid Cap Blend	0.11	0.38	0.17	0.05
IJR	US Small Cap Blend	0.22	0.36	0.14	0.02
VNQ	US REITs	0.63	0.52	0.40	0.23
QQQ	US Technology	-0.16	0.45	0.29	0.02
PFF	US Preferred Stocks	0.40	0.55	0.43	0.29
EFA	EAFE Stocks	0.60	0.62	0.36	0.16
VT	World All Countries	0.24	0.54	0.30	0.10
EEM	Emerging Markets	0.35	0.56	0.34	0.11
BND	US Total Bond Market	0.92	0.92	0.91	0.88
TLT	US Long Term Treasuries	0.81	0.76	0.76	0.70
BIL	US Cash	0.15	0.33	0.25	0.26
TIP	US TIPS	0.84	0.80	0.79	0.73
LQD	US Invest. Grade Bonds	0.82	0.86	0.80	0.75
HYG	US High Yield Bonds	0.56	0.70	0.47	0.33
CWB	US Convertible Bonds	0.17	0.40	0.26	0.12
BNDX	International Bonds	0.69	0.83	0.78	0.58
EMB	Emerg. Market Bonds	0.71	0.73	0.58	0.48
GLD	Gold	0.18	0.42	0.45	0.36
DBC	Commodities	-0.42	-0.13	-0.15	0.02

Terms and Definitions

Correlation values range between -1 and +1

A correlation of +1 indicates that the returns of the two assets move in perfect synchrony; when one asset's returns go up, the other asset's returns also go up by the same percentage, and vice versa. This perfect positive correlation implies that the assets perform similarly in different market conditions.
A correlation of -1 indicates a perfect inverse relationship between the returns of the two assets. When one asset's returns go up, the other asset's returns go down by the same percentage. This perfect negative correlation suggests that the assets move in opposite directions, providing a diversification benefit by reducing overall portfolio risk.
A correlation of 0 means that there is no linear relationship between the returns of the two assets. The returns of one asset do not predict the returns of the other.

Learn about historical correlations here: see how the main asset classes relate to each other.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

VANGUARD SHORT-TERM BOND (BSV) ETF

Drawdown periods

Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted

1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 Years)

1 January 1871 - 30 June 2025 (~155 years)

30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)

All Data
(1871/01 - 2025/06)

Inflation Adjusted:

Chart Table Range

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Rolling Returns

For a detailed rolling return analysis, click here
Vanguard Short-Term Bond (BSV) ETF: Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

VANGUARD SHORT-TERM BOND (BSV) ETF

Annualized Rolling Returns

Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted

1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 Years)

1 January 1871 - 30 June 2025 (~155 years)

30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)

All Data
(1871/01 - 2025/06)

Inflation Adjusted:

Return Chart Capital Chart Table

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The values shown for the rolling periods represent key statistical points: the minimum, maximum, median, and the 15th and 85th percentiles. These percentiles give insight into the distribution of the data, indicating the range within which the central 70% of the values lie, while the median represents the middle value.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Vanguard Short-Term Bond (BSV) ETF?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past. They are retrieved considering the time period from January 1871 to June 2025.

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For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.

Monthly Returns

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Vanguard Short-Term Bond (BSV) ETF over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

VANGUARD SHORT-TERM BOND (BSV) ETF

Monthly Returns Distribution

1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 Years)

1 January 1871 - 30 June 2025 (~155 years)

255 Positive Months (71%) - 105 Negative Months (29%)

1296 Positive Months (70%) - 558 Negative Months (30%)

30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)

All Data
(1871/01 - 2025/06)

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Methodology

Returns, up to December 2007, have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets.
You can find additional information on extended Data Sources here.

Table of contents

Resources & Extras

Investment Returns as of Jun 30, 2025

Investment Metrics as of Jun 30, 2025

Correlations as of Jun 30, 2025

Drawdowns

Rolling Returns

Seasonality

Monthly Returns