Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin vs Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Conservative Portfolio Portfolio Comparison

Simulation Settings

Period: January 2011 - February 2026 (~15 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 28 February 2026

Initial Amount: 1$

Rebalancing: at every Jan 1^st

Currency: USD

Inflation: US

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Results

All Data
(2011/01 - 2026/02)

Inflation Adjusted:

Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin

1.00$
Invested Capital
January 2011
10.45$
Final Capital
February 2026
16.74%
Yearly Return
35.31%
Std Deviation
-36.76%
Max Drawdown
28months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Invested Capital
January 2011
7.04$
Final Capital
February 2026
13.73%
Yearly Return
35.31%
Std Deviation
-37.42%
Max Drawdown
29months
Recovery Period

Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Conservative Portfolio

1.00$
Invested Capital
January 2011
2.52$
Final Capital
February 2026
6.28%
Yearly Return
6.88%
Std Deviation
-18.53%
Max Drawdown
30months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Invested Capital
January 2011
1.70$
Final Capital
February 2026
3.54%
Yearly Return
6.88%
Std Deviation
-24.69%
Max Drawdown
53months
Recovery Period

As of February 2026, over the analyzed timeframe, the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin obtained a 16.74% compound annual return, with a 35.31% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -36.76% that required 28 months to be recovered.

As of February 2026, over the analyzed timeframe, the Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Conservative Portfolio obtained a 6.28% compound annual return, with a 6.88% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -18.53% that required 30 months to be recovered.

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Disclaimer: The simulations on this website are provided in good faith but should NOT be taken as investment advice. We are not liable for any errors or actions based on this information. The authors of the website are not affiliated with the portfolio creators, who are the sole owners of their intellectual property. The translation of asset allocations into ETFs is based on the interpretation of LazyPortfolioETF.com and may not exactly reflect the original intent of the portfolio creators. Content is for informational, educational, illustrative, and entertainment purposes only.

Resources & Extras

Asset Allocations and ETFs

The compared portfolios have the following asset allocations.

Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin

Weight (%)	Ticker	Name
30.00	VTI	Vanguard Total Stock Market
40.00	TLT	iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond
15.00	IEI	iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond
6.50	DBC	Invesco DB Commodity Tracking
6.50	GLD	SPDR Gold Trust
2.00	^BTC	Bitcoin

Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Conservative Portfolio

Weight (%)	Ticker	Name
14.00	VUG	Vanguard Growth
9.00	VTV	Vanguard Value
9.00	VEU	Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US
3.00	EEM	iShares MSCI Emerging Markets
1.00	IJS	iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value
1.00	IJT	iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Growth
17.00	IEI	iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond
15.00	MBB	iShares MBS
15.00	LQD	iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond
9.00	BNDX	Vanguard Total International Bond
5.00	HYG	iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond
2.00	BIL	SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill

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Portfolio Returns as of Feb 28, 2026

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:

no fees or capital gain taxes.
rebalancing: at every Jan 1^st.
dividend reinvestment, when applicable.

Return Comparison

Capital Growth

All Data
(2011/01 - 2026/02)

Inflation Adjusted:

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	Initial Amount $	Final Amount $	Total Return (%)	Annualized (%)
All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin Ray Dalio	1 $	10.45 $	945.31%	16.74%
Edge Select Moderately Conservative Merrill Lynch	1 $	2.52 $	151.84%	6.28%
	Jan 2011	Feb 2026

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	Initial Amount $	Final Amount $	Total Return (%)	Annualized (%)
All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin Ray Dalio	1 $	7.04 $	603.61%	13.73%
Edge Select Moderately Conservative Merrill Lynch	1 $	1.70 $	69.51%	3.54%
	Jan 2011	Feb 2026

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		Return (%) as of Feb 28, 2026
		YTD (2M)	1M	6M	1Y	5Y	10Y	MAX (~15Y)
	All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin Ray Dalio	4.13	2.44	9.10	12.87	4.98	9.84	16.74
	Edge Select Moderately Conservative Merrill Lynch	2.65	1.33	6.59	12.86	5.24	6.89	6.28
Returns over 1 year are annualized.

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Portfolio Metrics as of Feb 28, 2026

The following metrics, updated as of 28 February 2026, provide an overview of performance and risk, with the best value in each row highlighted within the table.

METRIC COMPARISON

Period: 1 March 2025 - 28 February 2026 (1 year)

Period: 1 March 2021 - 28 February 2026 (5 years)

Period: 1 March 2016 - 28 February 2026 (10 years)

Period: 1 January 2011 - 28 February 2026 (~15 years)

1 Year

5 Years

10 Years

All (2011/01 - 2026/02)

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	All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin	Edge Select Moderately Conservative
Author	Ray Dalio	Merrill Lynch
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks	30%	37%
Fixed Income	55%	63%
Commodities	15%	0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%)	12.87	12.86
Infl. Adjusted (%)	10.22	10.21
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)	-1.84	-1.54
Start to Recovery (months)	4	3
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)	-1.84	-1.54
Start to Recovery (months)	4	3
Longest Negative Period (months)	3	2
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%)	5.09	3.74
Sharpe Ratio	1.74	2.36
Sortino Ratio	2.51	3.06
Ulcer Index	0.76	0.51
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation	2.53	3.44
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown	6.98	8.33
Metrics calculated over the period 1 March 2025 - 28 February 2026

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	All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin	Edge Select Moderately Conservative
Author	Ray Dalio	Merrill Lynch
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks	30%	37%
Fixed Income	55%	63%
Commodities	15%	0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%)	4.98	5.24
Infl. Adjusted (%)	0.52	0.77
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)	-21.82	-18.53
Start to Recovery (months)	37	30
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)	-21.82	-18.53
Start to Recovery (months)	37	30
Longest Negative Period (months)	42	35
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%)	10.58	8.64
Sharpe Ratio	0.17	0.23
Sortino Ratio	0.23	0.31
Ulcer Index	9.75	6.97
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation	0.47	0.61
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown	0.23	0.28
Metrics calculated over the period 1 March 2021 - 28 February 2026

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	All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin	Edge Select Moderately Conservative
Author	Ray Dalio	Merrill Lynch
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks	30%	37%
Fixed Income	55%	63%
Commodities	15%	0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%)	9.84	6.89
Infl. Adjusted (%)	6.35	3.50
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)	-21.82	-18.53
Start to Recovery (months)	37	30
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)	-21.82	-18.53
Start to Recovery (months)	37	30
Longest Negative Period (months)	42	39
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%)	9.66	7.55
Sharpe Ratio	0.80	0.64
Sortino Ratio	1.13	0.84
Ulcer Index	7.04	5.08
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation	1.02	0.91
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown	0.45	0.37
Metrics calculated over the period 1 March 2016 - 28 February 2026

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	All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin	Edge Select Moderately Conservative
Author	Ray Dalio	Merrill Lynch
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks	30%	37%
Fixed Income	55%	63%
Commodities	15%	0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%)	16.74	6.28
Infl. Adjusted (%)	13.73	3.54
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)	-36.76	-18.53
Start to Recovery (months)	28	30
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)	-23.49	-18.53
Start to Recovery (months)	44	30
Longest Negative Period (months)	43	39
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%)	35.31	6.88
Sharpe Ratio	0.44	0.72
Sortino Ratio	1.27	0.96
Ulcer Index	12.68	4.24
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation	0.47	0.91
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown	0.46	0.34
Metrics calculated over the period 1 January 2011 - 28 February 2026

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Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

DRAWDOWN COMPARISON

Period: 1 March 2016 - 28 February 2026 (10 years)

Period: 1 January 2011 - 28 February 2026 (~15 years)

Chart Table

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All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin			Edge Select Moderately Conservative
Drawdown (%)	Recovery (#Months)	From To	Drawdown (%)	Recovery (#Months)	From To
-36.76	28	Jul 2011 Oct 2013
-23.49	44	Dec 2013 Jul 2017
-21.82	37	Nov 2021 Nov 2024
			-18.53	30	Jan 2022 Jun 2024
			-7.78	5	Feb 2020 Jun 2020
			-5.80	8	Jun 2011 Jan 2012
-4.85	7	Sep 2018 Mar 2019
			-4.75	6	Sep 2018 Feb 2019
			-4.35	13	May 2015 May 2016
-3.51	3	Dec 2024 Feb 2025
			-3.06	5	May 2013 Sep 2013
-2.97	4	Aug 2020 Nov 2020
			-2.86	3	May 2012 Jul 2012
-2.82	8	Jan 2018 Aug 2018
			-2.69	7	Feb 2018 Aug 2018

Rolling Returns

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You can explore the Rolling Returns for a single portfolio, or check the return differential, by switching on "Head To Head" toggle.

Rolling Returns Comparison

Annualized Rolling Returns Chart

Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted

Time Period: 1 January 2011 - 28 February 2026 (~15 years)

Rolling Period:

All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin
Edge Select Moderately Conservative

Head To Head (Ptf 1 vs Ptf 2):

US Inflation Adjusted:

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Yearly Returns

For each year, the following table provides the return and intra-year drawdown. The highlighted returns represent the highest values for that specific year.

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	All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin		Edge Select Moderately Conservative
Year	Return (%)	Drawdown (%)	Return (%)	Drawdown (%)
2026	4.13	0.00	2.65	0.00
2025	12.41	-1.84	12.53	-1.54
2024	8.49	-4.22	8.33	-2.70
2023	12.99	-8.52	13.70	-6.23
2022	-19.86	-21.79	-14.91	-18.53
2021	9.09	-2.65	6.44	-2.24
2020	21.78	-2.97	11.65	-7.78
2019	19.48	-1.39	16.41	-1.82
2018	-4.35	-4.85	-2.89	-4.75
2017	38.75	-1.04	11.44	0.00
2016	8.71	-5.80	6.14	-1.87
2015	-2.16	-6.22	-0.48	-4.33
2014	12.06	-2.72	6.29	-1.64
2013	125.82	-23.49	8.82	-3.06
2012	10.54	-1.68	9.99	-2.86
2011	45.03	-36.76	3.41	-5.80

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Table of contents

Resources & Extras

Asset Allocations and ETFs

Portfolio Returns as of Feb 28, 2026

Portfolio Metrics as of Feb 28, 2026

Drawdowns

Rolling Returns

Yearly Returns