Data Source: from January 1994 to December 2021

Last Update: 31 December 2021

The Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Conservative Portfolio is exposed for 37% on the Stock Market.

It's a Medium Risk portfolio and it can be replicated with 12 ETFs.

In the last 10 years, the portfolio obtained a 7.24% compound annual return, with a 5.58% standard deviation.

In the last 25 years, a 6.87% compound annual return, with a 6.42% standard deviation.

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Conservative Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

37% Stocks
63% Fixed Income
0% Commodities

The Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Conservative Portfolio can be replicated with the following ETFs:

Weight Ticker ETF Name Investment Themes
14.00 % VUG Vanguard Growth Equity, U.S., Large Cap, Growth
9.00 % VTV Vanguard Value Equity, U.S., Large Cap, Value
9.00 % VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Equity, Global ex-US, Large Cap
3.00 % EEM iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Equity, Emerging Markets, Large Cap
1.00 % IJT iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Growth Equity, U.S., Small Cap, Growth
1.00 % IJS iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value Equity, U.S., Small Cap, Value
17.00 % IEI iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond Bond, U.S., Intermediate-Term
15.00 % MBB iShares MBS Bond, U.S., Long-Term
15.00 % LQD iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond Bond, U.S., All-Term
9.00 % BNDX Vanguard Total International Bond Bond, Developed Markets, All-Term
5.00 % HYG iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Bond, U.S., Intermediate-Term
2.00 % BIL SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill Bond, U.S., Ultra Short-Term
Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns

The Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Conservative Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

MERRILL LYNCH EDGE SELECT MODERATELY CONSERVATIVE PORTFOLIO RETURNS (%)
Last Update: 31 December 2021
Swipe left to see all data
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y(*) 5Y(*) 10Y(*) 20Y(*) 25Y(*)
Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Conservative Portfolio +1.40 +2.71 +2.11 +6.44 +11.43 +8.41 +7.24 +6.72 +6.87
--- Inflation Adjusted return +0.93 +0.49 -1.25 -0.64 +7.63 +5.33 +5.02 +4.31 +4.48
Components
VUG
Vanguard Growth
+1.57 +10.75 +12.16 +27.34 +34.75 +24.75 +19.30 +10.83 +10.88
VTV
Vanguard Value
+6.95 +9.34 +8.31 +26.51 +17.58 +12.48 +13.74 +8.48 +8.66
VEU
Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US
+3.69 +1.96 -1.37 +8.28 +13.60 +9.89 +7.57 +6.87 +5.48
EEM
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets
+1.53 -1.57 -10.09 -3.61 +10.06 +9.16 +4.73 +8.87 +5.94
IJT
iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Growth
+4.86 +6.91 +5.11 +22.37 +20.85 +14.08 +15.16 +11.20 +10.39
IJS
iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value
+4.12 +4.30 +0.09 +30.53 +18.47 +10.04 +13.33 +9.82 +10.48
IEI
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond
-0.40 -0.91 -1.01 -2.54 +3.28 +2.48 +1.84 +3.90 +4.58
MBB
iShares MBS
-0.13 -0.64 -0.49 -1.43 +2.89 +2.39 +2.06 +3.40 +4.13
LQD
iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond
-0.03 +0.38 -0.08 -1.85 +8.53 +5.66 +4.94 +5.65 +5.93
BNDX
Vanguard Total International Bond
-0.74 -0.14 -0.17 -2.28 +3.32 +3.03 +3.80 +4.96 +5.22
HYG
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond
+2.28 +0.77 +1.12 +3.75 +7.34 +5.14 +5.23 +5.81 +5.51
BIL
SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill
0.00 -0.03 -0.04 -0.10 +0.77 +0.95 +0.45 +1.12 +1.86
(*) annualized
Portfolio returns are calculated assuming:
  • a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (i.e. at every January 1st)
  • the reinvestment of dividends

Inflation is updated to Dec 2021. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 7.12% , 3Y: 3.53% , 5Y: 2.92% , 10Y: 2.12% , 20Y: 2.31% , 25Y: 2.29%

In 2021, the portfolio granted a 1.84% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Conservative Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Historical Returns

Historical returns and stats of Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Conservative Portfolio. Total Returns and Inflation Adjusted Returns are both mentioned.

MERRILL LYNCH EDGE SELECT MODERATELY CONSERVATIVE PORTFOLIO
Last Update: 31 December 2021
Swipe left to see all data
Period Return
Dec 2021
update
Return
Inflation
Adjusted
Standard
Deviation(*)
Max
Drawdown
Months
Pos - Neg
1M
Dec 2021
+1.40%
+0.93%
0.00%
1 - 0
3M
+2.71%
+0.49%
-0.74%
Nov 2021 - Nov 2021
2 - 1
6M
+2.11%
-1.25%
-2.24%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
4 - 2
YTD
+6.44%
-0.64%
3.99%
-2.24%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
9 - 3
75% pos
1Y
+6.44%
-0.64%
3.99%
-2.24%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
9 - 3
75% pos
3Y
+11.43%
annualized
+7.63%
annualized
7.08%
-7.78%
Feb 2020 - Mar 2020
28 - 8
78% pos
5Y
+8.41%
annualized
+5.33%
annualized
6.21%
-7.78%
Feb 2020 - Mar 2020
45 - 15
75% pos
10Y
+7.24%
annualized
+5.02%
annualized
5.58%
-7.78%
Feb 2020 - Mar 2020
86 - 34
72% pos
20Y
+6.72%
annualized
+4.31%
annualized
6.31%
-20.48%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
166 - 74
69% pos
25Y
+6.87%
annualized
+4.48%
annualized
6.42%
-20.48%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
204 - 96
68% pos
MAX
01 Jan 1994
+7.16%
annualized
+4.70%
annualized
6.32%
-20.48%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
232 - 104
69% pos
(*)Annualized St.Dev. of monthly returns

Portfolio efficiency

Is the Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Conservative Portfolio actually efficient, compared to other Lazy Portfolios?

Best Classic Portfolios, with Medium Risk, ordered by 25 Years annualized return.

25 Years Stats
% Allocation
Portfolio Return Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm.
Couch Potato
Scott Burns
+8.33% -27.03% 50 50 0 Compare
All Weather Portfolio
Ray Dalio
+7.89% -12.19% 30 55 15 Compare
Robo Advisor 50
Betterment
+7.63% -30.72% 49.9 50.1 0 Compare
Simplified Permanent Portfolio
+7.48% -13.28% 25 50 25 Compare
Stocks/Bonds 40/60
+7.24% -19.17% 40 60 0 Compare

See all portfolios

Our overall ratings, assigned to the Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Conservative Portfolio. The portfolio is classified as Medium Risk.

Very High Risk
Bond weight:
Less than 25%
High Risk
Bond weight:
25% - 49.99%
Medium Risk
Bond weight:
50% - 74.99%
Low Risk
Bond weight:
At least 75%
Medium Risk
Portfolios
All
Portfolios
25 Years Ann. Return
(Inflation Adjusted)
+6.87%
(+4.48%)
Average : 2.6 / 5
Average : 2.8 / 5
Standard Deviation
over 25 Years
6.42%
Excellent : 4.2 / 5
Excellent : 4.2 / 5
Maximum Drawdown
over 25 Years
-20.48%
Good : 3.5 / 5
Good : 3.9 / 5
Easy to manage 12 ETFs
Poor : 1 / 5
Poor : 1 / 5
Rating assigned considering all the Medium Risk Portfolios Rating assigned considering all the Portfolios in the database

Capital Growth

Time Range:

An investment of 1000$, since January 1997, now would be worth 5271.03$, with a total return of 427.10% (6.87% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 2993.02$, with a net total return of 199.30% (4.48% annualized).

Drawdowns

Time Range:

Worst drawdowns since January 1997 - Chart and Data

Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months
-20.48% Nov 2007 Feb 2009 16 Nov 2009 9 25
-7.78% Feb 2020 Mar 2020 2 Jun 2020 3 5
-6.14% Feb 2001 Sep 2002 20 Apr 2003 7 27
-5.80% Jun 2011 Sep 2011 4 Jan 2012 4 8
-5.01% Jul 1998 Aug 1998 2 Oct 1998 2 4
-4.75% Sep 2018 Dec 2018 4 Feb 2019 2 6
-4.35% May 2015 Jan 2016 9 May 2016 4 13
-3.51% Sep 2000 Nov 2000 3 Jan 2001 2 5
-3.50% May 2010 Jun 2010 2 Jul 2010 1 3
-3.09% Aug 1997 Aug 1997 1 Dec 1997 4 5
-3.06% May 2013 Jun 2013 2 Sep 2013 3 5
-2.86% May 2012 May 2012 1 Jul 2012 2 3
-2.74% Apr 2000 May 2000 2 Aug 2000 3 5
-2.69% Feb 2018 Apr 2018 3 Aug 2018 4 7
-2.54% Apr 2004 Apr 2004 1 Sep 2004 5 6
-2.26% Jan 2000 Jan 2000 1 Mar 2000 2 3
-2.24% Sep 2021 Sep 2021 1 Dec 2021 3 4
-2.17% Feb 1999 Feb 1999 1 Mar 1999 1 2
-2.08% Sep 2020 Oct 2020 2 Nov 2020 1 3
-1.96% Mar 1997 Mar 1997 1 Apr 1997 1 2

Rolling Returns ( more details)

Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Conservative Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns

Swipe left to see all data
Return (*) Negative
Periods
Rolling Period Average Best Worst
1 Year
+7.53% +28.52%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2010
-17.95%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
12.31%
2 Years
+7.28% +20.13%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011
-7.53%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
5.75%
3 Years
+7.08% +15.38%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2012
-2.41%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009
1.66%
5 Years
+6.81% +13.24%
Jan 1995 - Dec 1999
+1.09%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009
0.00%
7 Years
+6.59% +9.78%
May 1994 - Apr 2001
+3.22%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
0.00%
10 Years
+6.63% +9.08%
Jan 1995 - Dec 2004
+3.51%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
0.00%
15 Years
+6.50% +7.73%
Dec 1994 - Nov 2009
+5.50%
Feb 2001 - Jan 2016
0.00%
20 Years
+6.58% +7.79%
Dec 1994 - Nov 2014
+5.44%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
0.00%

* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Conservative Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Conservative Portfolio Seasonality: in which months is it better to invest?

In the table below, the average monthly return is represented.

Below each return, it's also mentioned the probability of obtaining a positive monthly result (Win %).

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.

Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Win %
0.55
64%
0.17
71%
0.34
71%
1.28
82%
0.37
64%
0.43
64%
0.83
64%
0.27
71%
0.26
61%
0.69
68%
0.89
68%
1.04
79%
Best
Year
4.2
2019
2.9
1998
3.8
2009
5.1
2009
3.6
2009
3.6
2019
4.9
2009
2.5
2000
3.7
2010
4.7
2011
5.1
2020
5.0
2008
Worst
Year
-3.8
2009
-4.7
2009
-5.9
2020
-2.5
2004
-3.2
2010
-3.2
2008
-2.2
2002
-5.0
1998
-5.8
2008
-7.3
2008
-1.8
1994
-2.0
2018
Statistics calculated for the period Jan 1994 - Dec 2021

For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.

Monthly/Yearly Returns

Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Conservative Portfolio monthly and yearly returns: how is the distribution of the returns recorded so far?

MONTHLY RETURNS HISTOGRAM
232 Positive Months (69%) - 104 Negative Months (31%)
Jan 1994 - Dec 2021
Swipe left to see all data
Yearly Return(%)
Monthly Return(%)
Year Total Infl.Adj Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2021
+6.44 -0.64 -0.3 0.1 0.7 2.0 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.9 -2.2 2.0 -0.7 1.4
2020
+11.65 +10.22 0.6 -2.0 -5.9 4.9 2.4 1.6 3.0 2.0 -1.3 -0.8 5.1 2.1
2019
+16.41 +13.84 4.2 1.0 1.7 1.6 -1.8 3.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 1.2 1.1 1.6
2018
-2.89 -4.72 1.6 -2.1 -0.2 -0.4 0.8 -0.1 1.4 0.9 -0.1 -3.5 0.9 -2.0
2017
+11.44 +9.14 1.1 1.6 0.5 1.1 1.2 0.2 1.4 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.9
2016
+6.14 +4.01 -1.4 0.2 3.6 0.6 0.3 1.3 1.9 0.1 0.4 -1.3 -0.6 0.9
2015
-0.48 -1.11 0.6 1.7 -0.6 0.9 -0.1 -1.5 0.8 -2.8 -0.7 3.0 -0.3 -1.2
2014
+6.29 +5.60 -0.7 2.2 0.0 0.7 1.6 0.9 -0.8 2.1 -1.6 1.4 1.0 -0.5
2013
+8.82 +7.19 1.2 0.5 1.2 1.5 -1.1 -2.0 2.4 -1.5 2.6 2.3 0.8 0.7
2012
+9.99 +8.09 2.9 2.0 0.3 0.2 -2.9 2.0 1.3 1.1 1.4 -0.3 0.6 0.9
2011
+3.41 +0.33 0.7 1.3 0.2 2.3 0.0 -0.8 0.3 -2.0 -3.4 4.7 -0.9 1.1
2010
+10.48 +8.91 -0.9 1.3 2.5 1.1 -3.2 -0.3 3.8 -0.6 3.7 1.7 -0.9 2.1
2009
+17.30 +14.09 -3.8 -4.7 3.8 5.1 3.6 0.5 4.9 1.6 3.0 -0.9 3.2 0.4
2008
-11.92 -11.90 -1.3 -0.3 -0.2 1.8 -0.1 -3.2 -0.4 0.2 -5.8 -7.3 -0.5 5.0
2007
+6.98 +2.76 0.6 0.4 0.6 1.9 0.9 -0.7 -0.8 1.2 2.5 1.8 -1.1 -0.4
2006
+9.60 +6.90 1.7 0.1 0.2 0.9 -1.7 0.0 0.8 1.9 1.1 1.9 1.9 0.4
2005
+5.47 +2.06 -0.4 0.9 -1.4 0.0 1.8 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.4 -1.5 1.8 1.2
2004
+8.54 +5.03 1.2 1.4 0.2 -2.5 0.2 1.1 -0.8 1.5 1.0 1.4 1.7 2.0
2003
+16.19 +13.88 -1.0 0.2 0.1 3.7 3.3 0.8 -0.9 1.5 1.6 2.1 0.8 3.1
2002
-0.79 -3.19 -0.1 0.2 0.7 -0.2 0.3 -1.9 -2.2 1.3 -2.2 2.0 1.7 -0.2
2001
+0.35 -1.24 2.5 -2.7 -2.2 2.3 0.3 -0.8 1.0 -0.9 -2.5 2.2 1.4 0.0
2000
+2.03 -1.36 -2.3 0.9 3.1 -1.7 -1.0 2.7 -0.5 2.5 -1.4 -0.4 -1.7 1.9
1999
+9.63 +6.77 1.5 -2.2 2.2 2.1 -1.8 1.9 -0.9 -0.3 0.1 2.2 1.5 3.1
1998
+13.94 +12.14 1.2 2.9 1.7 0.7 -0.6 1.2 0.0 -5.0 3.5 3.0 2.4 2.4
1997
+12.19 +10.32 1.3 0.5 -2.0 2.1 3.2 2.6 3.4 -3.1 3.1 -1.5 1.1 1.0
1996
+9.06 +5.49 1.4 -0.6 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.8 -1.4 0.7 2.7 1.7 3.5 -1.1
1995
+21.86 +18.85 1.0 2.0 1.6 2.2 3.5 0.9 1.6 0.5 1.9 0.5 2.5 1.8
1994
-1.15 -3.66 2.6 -2.1 -3.2 0.2 0.4 -0.6 1.8 1.7 -1.6 0.9 -1.8 0.6

* Note:
Portofolio Returns, up to December 2013, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.

In particular, it has been used:

  • VUG - Vanguard Growth: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
  • VTV - Vanguard Value: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
  • VEU - Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
  • EEM - iShares MSCI Emerging Markets: simulated historical serie, up to December 2003
  • IJT - iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Growth: simulated historical serie, up to December 2000
  • IJS - iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value: simulated historical serie, up to December 2000
  • IEI - iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
  • MBB - iShares MBS: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
  • LQD - iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2002
  • BNDX - Vanguard Total International Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2013
  • HYG - iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
  • BIL - SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
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