Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 30/70 Portfolio vs Scott Burns Couch Potato Portfolio Portfolio Comparison

Simulation Settings
Period: January 1985 - May 2025 (~40 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 May 2025
Initial Amount: 1$
Rebalancing: at every Jan 1st
Currency: USD
Inflation: US
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Results
30 Years
(1995/06 - 2025/05)
All Data
(1985/01 - 2025/05)
Inflation Adjusted:
Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 30/70 Portfolio
1.00$
Invested Capital
June 1995
5.31$
Final Capital
May 2025
5.72%
Yearly Return
5.18%
Std Deviation
-16.58%
Max Drawdown
18months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Invested Capital
June 1995
2.52$
Final Capital
May 2025
3.13%
Yearly Return
5.18%
Std Deviation
-18.58%
Max Drawdown
48months*
Recovery Period
* in progress
1.00$
Invested Capital
January 1985
16.84$
Final Capital
May 2025
7.24%
Yearly Return
5.48%
Std Deviation
-16.58%
Max Drawdown
18months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Invested Capital
January 1985
5.54$
Final Capital
May 2025
4.33%
Yearly Return
5.48%
Std Deviation
-18.58%
Max Drawdown
48months*
Recovery Period
* in progress
Scott Burns Couch Potato Portfolio
1.00$
Invested Capital
June 1995
10.28$
Final Capital
May 2025
8.08%
Yearly Return
8.73%
Std Deviation
-27.04%
Max Drawdown
30months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Invested Capital
June 1995
4.88$
Final Capital
May 2025
5.42%
Yearly Return
8.73%
Std Deviation
-28.24%
Max Drawdown
36months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Invested Capital
January 1985
36.76$
Final Capital
May 2025
9.33%
Yearly Return
9.04%
Std Deviation
-27.04%
Max Drawdown
30months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Invested Capital
January 1985
12.09$
Final Capital
May 2025
6.36%
Yearly Return
9.04%
Std Deviation
-28.24%
Max Drawdown
36months
Recovery Period

As of May 2025, in the previous 30 Years, the Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 30/70 Portfolio obtained a 5.72% compound annual return, with a 5.18% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -16.58% that required 18 months to be recovered.

As of May 2025, in the previous 30 Years, the Scott Burns Couch Potato Portfolio obtained a 8.08% compound annual return, with a 8.73% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -27.04% that required 30 months to be recovered.

Disclaimer: The simulations on this website are provided in good faith but should NOT be taken as investment advice. We are not liable for any errors or actions based on this information. The authors of the website are not affiliated with the portfolio creators, who are the sole owners of their intellectual property. The translation of asset allocations into ETFs is based on the interpretation of LazyPortfolioETF.com and may not exactly reflect the original intent of the portfolio creators. Content is for informational, educational, illustrative, and entertainment purposes only.
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Asset Allocations and ETFs

The compared portfolios have the following asset allocations.

Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 30/70 Portfolio
Weight
(%)		 Ticker Name
7.50
VTV
Vanguard Value
6.00
VV
Vanguard Large-Cap
4.50
IJS
iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value
3.00
VNQ
Vanguard Real Estate
2.10
EFV
iShares MSCI EAFE Value
1.50
EEM
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets
1.50
IJR
iShares Core S&P Small-Cap
1.50
VGK
Vanguard FTSE Europe
1.50
VPL
Vanguard FTSE Pacific
42.00
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond
28.00
TIP
iShares TIPS Bond
0.90
GLTR
Aberdeen Standard Physical Precious Metals Basket Shares
Scott Burns Couch Potato Portfolio
Weight
(%)		 Ticker Name
50.00
VTI
Vanguard Total Stock Market
50.00
TIP
iShares TIPS Bond
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Portfolio Returns as of May 31, 2025

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:
  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • rebalancing: at every Jan 1st.
  • dividend reinvestment, when applicable.
Return Comparison
Capital Growth
30 Years
(1995/06 - 2025/05)
All Data
(1985/01 - 2025/05)
Inflation Adjusted:
Swipe left to see all data
Initial Amount $ Final Amount $ Total Return (%) Annualized (%)
Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 30/70
Bill Bernstein 		1 $ 5.31 $ 431.28% 5.72%
Scott Burns Couch Potato
Scott Burns 		1 $ 10.28 $ 928.45% 8.08%
Jun 1995 May 2025

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Initial Amount $ Final Amount $ Total Return (%) Annualized (%)
Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 30/70
Bill Bernstein 		1 $ 2.52 $ 152.00% 3.13%
Scott Burns Couch Potato
Scott Burns 		1 $ 4.88 $ 387.82% 5.42%
Jun 1995 May 2025

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Initial Amount $ Final Amount $ Total Return (%) Annualized (%)
Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 30/70
Bill Bernstein 		1 $ 16.84 $ 1 583.55% 7.24%
Scott Burns Couch Potato
Scott Burns 		1 $ 36.76 $ 3 576.13% 9.33%
Jan 1985 May 2025

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Initial Amount $ Final Amount $ Total Return (%) Annualized (%)
Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 30/70
Bill Bernstein 		1 $ 5.54 $ 453.90% 4.33%
Scott Burns Couch Potato
Scott Burns 		1 $ 12.09 $ 1 109.47% 6.36%
Jan 1985 May 2025

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Return (%) as of May 31, 2025
YTD
(5M) 		1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~40Y)
http://www.lazyportfolioetf.com/wp-content/themes/dynamico-child/img/author/avatar_bernstein.webp Sheltered Sam 30/70
Bill Bernstein 		2.81 0.88 0.73 6.87 4.53 3.90 5.72 7.24
http://www.lazyportfolioetf.com/wp-content/themes/dynamico-child/img/author/avatar_scott_burns.webp Couch Potato
Scott Burns 		2.05 2.64 -0.44 9.49 8.23 7.30 8.08 9.33
Returns over 1 year are annualized.
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Portfolio Metrics as of May 31, 2025

The following metrics, updated as of 31 May 2025, provide an overview of performance and risk, with the best value in each row highlighted within the table.

METRIC COMPARISON
Period: 1 June 2024 - 31 May 2025 (1 year)
Period: 1 June 2020 - 31 May 2025 (5 years)
Period: 1 June 2015 - 31 May 2025 (10 years)
Period: 1 June 1995 - 31 May 2025 (30 years)
Period: 1 January 1985 - 31 May 2025 (~40 years)
1 Year
5 Years
10 Years
30 Years
All (1985/01 - 2025/05)
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Sheltered Sam 30/70 Couch Potato
Author Bill Bernstein Scott Burns
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 29.1% 50%
Fixed Income 70% 50%
Commodities 0.9% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 6.87 9.49
Infl. Adjusted (%) 4.39 6.95
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -2.02 -3.00
Start to Recovery (months) 3 6*
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -2.02 -3.00
Start to Recovery (months) 3 6*
Longest Negative Period (months) 5 7
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 4.42 6.79
Sharpe Ratio 0.49 0.70
Sortino Ratio 0.63 0.92
Ulcer Index 0.72 1.37
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 1.55 1.40
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 3.40 3.16
Metrics calculated over the period 1 June 2024 - 31 May 2025
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Sheltered Sam 30/70 Couch Potato
Author Bill Bernstein Scott Burns
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 29.1% 50%
Fixed Income 70% 50%
Commodities 0.9% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 4.53 8.23
Infl. Adjusted (%) -0.08 3.45
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -12.55 -19.77
Start to Recovery (months) 31 27
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -12.55 -19.77
Start to Recovery (months) 31 27
Longest Negative Period (months) 34 32
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 6.33 10.58
Sharpe Ratio 0.30 0.53
Sortino Ratio 0.40 0.70
Ulcer Index 4.44 7.30
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.72 0.78
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.36 0.42
Metrics calculated over the period 1 June 2020 - 31 May 2025
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Sheltered Sam 30/70 Couch Potato
Author Bill Bernstein Scott Burns
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 29.1% 50%
Fixed Income 70% 50%
Commodities 0.9% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 3.90 7.30
Infl. Adjusted (%) 0.80 4.10
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -12.55 -19.77
Start to Recovery (months) 31 27
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -12.55 -19.77
Start to Recovery (months) 31 27
Longest Negative Period (months) 34 32
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 5.49 9.46
Sharpe Ratio 0.38 0.58
Sortino Ratio 0.51 0.77
Ulcer Index 3.34 5.50
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.71 0.77
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.31 0.37
Metrics calculated over the period 1 June 2015 - 31 May 2025
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Sheltered Sam 30/70 Couch Potato
Author Bill Bernstein Scott Burns
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 29.1% 50%
Fixed Income 70% 50%
Commodities 0.9% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 5.72 8.08
Infl. Adjusted (%) 3.13 5.42
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -16.58 -27.04
Start to Recovery (months) 18 30
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -12.55 -10.30
Start to Recovery (months) 31 33
Longest Negative Period (months) 41 62
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 5.18 8.73
Sharpe Ratio 0.67 0.66
Sortino Ratio 0.87 0.87
Ulcer Index 2.80 5.17
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 1.11 0.93
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.35 0.30
Metrics calculated over the period 1 June 1995 - 31 May 2025
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Sheltered Sam 30/70 Couch Potato
Author Bill Bernstein Scott Burns
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 29.1% 50%
Fixed Income 70% 50%
Commodities 0.9% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 7.24 9.33
Infl. Adjusted (%) 4.33 6.36
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -16.58 -27.04
Start to Recovery (months) 18 30
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -12.55 -10.30
Start to Recovery (months) 31 33
Longest Negative Period (months) 41 62
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 5.48 9.04
Sharpe Ratio 0.74 0.68
Sortino Ratio 0.99 0.90
Ulcer Index 2.61 4.84
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 1.32 1.03
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.44 0.35
Metrics calculated over the period 1 January 1985 - 31 May 2025
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Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

DRAWDOWN COMPARISON
Period: 1 June 1995 - 31 May 2025 (30 years)
Period: 1 January 1985 - 31 May 2025 (~40 years)
30 Years
(1995/06 - 2025/05)

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Sheltered Sam 30/70 Couch Potato
Drawdown
(%) 		Recovery
(#Months)		 From
To		 Drawdown
(%) 		Recovery
(#Months)		 From
To
-27.04 30 Nov 2007
Apr 2010
-19.77 27 Jan 2022
Mar 2024
-16.58 18 Jun 2008
Nov 2009
-12.55 31 Jan 2022
Jul 2024
-10.72 5 Feb 2020
Jun 2020
-10.30 33 Sep 2000
May 2003
-8.06 8 Sep 2018
Apr 2019
-8.06 5 Jul 1998
Nov 1998
-6.25 8 May 2011
Dec 2011
-6.24 6 Feb 2020
Jul 2020
-6.09 5 May 2010
Sep 2010
-5.47 14 Mar 2015
Apr 2016
-4.60 5 Apr 2000
Aug 2000
-4.37 9 May 2011
Jan 2012
-4.01 4 Jul 1998
Oct 1998

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Sheltered Sam 30/70 Couch Potato
Drawdown
(%) 		Recovery
(#Months)		 From
To		 Drawdown
(%) 		Recovery
(#Months)		 From
To
-27.04 30 Nov 2007
Apr 2010
-19.77 27 Jan 2022
Mar 2024
-16.58 18 Jun 2008
Nov 2009
-16.03 17 Sep 1987
Jan 1989
-12.55 31 Jan 2022
Jul 2024
-10.72 5 Feb 2020
Jun 2020
-10.30 33 Sep 2000
May 2003
-8.78 14 Feb 1994
Mar 1995
-8.06 8 Sep 2018
Apr 2019
-8.06 5 Jul 1998
Nov 1998
-7.59 10 Sep 1987
Jun 1988
-7.58 6 Aug 1990
Jan 1991
-6.25 8 May 2011
Dec 2011
-6.24 6 Feb 2020
Jul 2020
-6.09 5 May 2010
Sep 2010

Rolling Returns

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the Simulation Settings.

You can explore the Rolling Returns for a single portfolio, or check the return differential, by switching on "Head To Head" toggle.

Rolling Returns Comparison
Annualized Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1985 - 31 May 2025 (~40 years)


Head To Head (Ptf 1 vs Ptf 2):
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Yearly Returns

For each year, the following table provides the return and intra-year drawdown. The highlighted returns represent the highest values for that specific year.

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Sheltered Sam 30/70 Couch Potato
Year Return
(%)		 Drawdown
(%)		 Return
(%)		 Drawdown
(%)
2025
 2.81 -0.49 2.05 -2.83
2024
 5.87 -2.02 12.73 -3.08
2023
 7.25 -4.05 14.66 -6.50
2022
 -9.07 -12.55 -16.31 -19.77
2021
 8.27 -1.49 15.67 -2.76
2020
 6.68 -6.24 15.93 -10.72
2019
 11.29 -1.23 19.51 -2.63
2018
 -2.35 -3.98 -3.32 -8.06
2017
 6.35 0.00 12.07 0.00
2016
 6.14 -0.94 8.75 -2.08
2015
 -1.08 -3.54 -0.70 -5.47
2014
 3.87 -1.94 8.07 -2.34
2013
 5.39 -2.64 12.48 -3.18
2012
 6.92 -1.73 11.42 -2.32
2011
 3.74 -4.37 7.12 -6.25
2010
 8.08 -3.32 11.78 -6.09
2009
 11.17 -7.71 18.92 -9.98
2008
 -8.30 -12.57 -18.47 -22.29
2007
 7.21 -0.78 8.64 -1.70
2006
 8.56 -1.09 7.99 -1.54
2005
 4.67 -1.32 4.40 -1.83
2004
 8.30 -3.26 10.53 -3.54
2003
 14.34 -0.69 19.38 -1.09
2002
 3.99 -2.62 -1.93 -6.44
2001
 3.89 -2.11 -1.68 -8.57
2000
 9.31 -1.23 3.54 -5.60
1999
 4.74 -2.18 9.67 -3.30
1998
 8.32 -4.01 16.26 -8.06
1997
 12.35 -1.75 21.85 -3.41
1996
 8.07 -1.16 11.14 -2.76
1995
 19.30 0.00 29.40 0.00
1994
 -2.28 -5.67 -3.21 -8.78
1993
 14.75 -1.45 13.19 -1.53
1992
 8.20 -1.27 8.92 -2.25
1991
 19.59 -1.56 25.50 -2.55
1990
 2.91 -4.64 1.06 -7.58
1989
 17.14 -0.61 21.95 -1.62
1988
 10.47 -1.19 11.91 -2.50
1987
 3.06 -7.59 1.19 -16.03
1986
 17.32 -2.63 16.48 -5.55
1985
 23.63 -0.55 28.66 -1.87
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