Data Source: from June 1991 to December 2021
Last Update: 31 December 2021
The Scott Burns Couch Potato Portfolio is exposed for 50% on the Stock Market.
It's a Medium Risk portfolio and it can be replicated with 2 ETFs.
In the last 10 years, the portfolio obtained a 9.77% compound annual return, with a 7.37% standard deviation.
In the last 25 years, a 8.33% compound annual return, with a 8.41% standard deviation.
Asset Allocation and ETFs
The Scott Burns Couch Potato Portfolio has the following asset allocation:
The Scott Burns Couch Potato Portfolio can be replicated with the following ETFs:
| Weight | Ticker | ETF Name | Investment Themes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50.00 % | VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market | Equity, U.S., Large Cap | |
| 50.00 % | TIP | iShares TIPS Bond | Bond, U.S., All-Term |
Portfolio and ETF Returns
The Scott Burns Couch Potato Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y(*) | 5Y(*) | 10Y(*) | 20Y(*) | 25Y(*) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Burns Couch Potato Portfolio | +2.21 | +5.94 | +6.77 | +15.67 | +17.02 | +11.67 | +9.77 | +8.01 | +8.33 |
| --- Inflation Adjusted return | +1.74 | +3.65 | +3.26 | +7.98 | +13.03 | +8.50 | +7.49 | +5.57 | +5.91 |
| Components | |||||||||
|
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market |
+3.79 | +9.11 | +9.08 | +25.67 | +25.73 | +17.96 | +16.29 | +9.91 | +9.88 |
|
TIP iShares TIPS Bond |
+0.40 | +2.39 | +4.14 | +5.67 | +8.26 | +5.18 | +2.93 | +5.18 | +5.79 |
- a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (i.e. at every January 1st)
- the reinvestment of dividends
Inflation is updated to Dec 2021. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 7.12% , 3Y: 3.53% , 5Y: 2.92% , 10Y: 2.12% , 20Y: 2.31% , 25Y: 2.29%
In 2021, the portfolio granted a 2.96% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Scott Burns Couch Potato Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.
Historical Returns
Historical returns and stats of Scott Burns Couch Potato Portfolio. Total Returns and Inflation Adjusted Returns are both mentioned.
| Period | Return Dec 2021 update |
Return Inflation Adjusted |
Standard Deviation(*) |
Max Drawdown |
Months Pos - Neg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1M
Dec 2021
|
+2.21%
|
+1.74%
|
0.00%
|
1 - 0
|
|
|
3M
|
+5.94%
|
+3.65%
|
-0.39%
Nov 2021 - Nov 2021
|
2 - 1
|
|
|
6M
|
+6.77%
|
+3.26%
|
-2.76%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
4 - 2
|
|
|
YTD
|
+15.67%
|
+7.98%
|
5.94%
|
-2.76%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
9 - 3
75% pos
|
|
1Y
|
+15.67%
|
+7.98%
|
5.94%
|
-2.76%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
9 - 3
75% pos
|
|
3Y
|
+17.02%
annualized
|
+13.03%
annualized
|
9.60%
|
-10.72%
Feb 2020 - Mar 2020
|
27 - 9
75% pos
|
|
5Y
|
+11.67%
annualized
|
+8.50%
annualized
|
8.56%
|
-10.72%
Feb 2020 - Mar 2020
|
46 - 14
77% pos
|
|
10Y
|
+9.77%
annualized
|
+7.49%
annualized
|
7.37%
|
-10.72%
Feb 2020 - Mar 2020
|
88 - 32
73% pos
|
|
20Y
|
+8.01%
annualized
|
+5.57%
annualized
|
8.09%
|
-27.04%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
|
165 - 75
69% pos
|
|
25Y
|
+8.33%
annualized
|
+5.91%
annualized
|
8.41%
|
-27.04%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
|
201 - 99
67% pos
|
|
MAX
01 Jun 1991
|
+9.08%
annualized
|
+6.52%
annualized
|
8.22%
|
-27.04%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
|
249 - 118
68% pos
|
Portfolio efficiency
Is the Scott Burns Couch Potato Portfolio actually efficient, compared to other Lazy Portfolios?
Best Classic Portfolios, with Medium Risk, ordered by 25 Years annualized return.
25 Years Stats |
% Allocation |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | Return▾ | Drawdown | Stocks | Bonds | Comm. | ||
| Couch Potato Scott Burns |
+8.33% | -27.03% | 50 | 50 | 0 | ||
| All Weather Portfolio Ray Dalio |
+7.89% | -12.19% | 30 | 55 | 15 | Compare | |
| Robo Advisor 50 Betterment |
+7.63% | -30.72% | 49.9 | 50.1 | 0 | Compare | |
| Simplified Permanent Portfolio |
+7.48% | -13.28% | 25 | 50 | 25 | Compare | |
| Stocks/Bonds 40/60 |
+7.24% | -19.17% | 40 | 60 | 0 | Compare | |
Our overall ratings, assigned to the Scott Burns Couch Potato Portfolio. The portfolio is classified as Medium Risk.
Less than 25%
25% - 49.99%
50% - 74.99%
At least 75%
| Medium Risk Portfolios |
All Portfolios |
||
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Years Ann. Return (Inflation Adjusted) |
+8.33%
(+5.91%) |
Excellent : 5 / 5
|
Good : 3.8 / 5
|
| Standard Deviation over 25 Years |
8.41% |
Poor : 1 / 5
|
Good : 3.7 / 5
|
| Maximum Drawdown over 25 Years |
-27.04% |
Bad : 1.8 / 5
|
Good : 3.4 / 5
|
| Easy to manage | 2 ETFs |
Excellent : 4.5 / 5
|
Excellent : 4.5 / 5
|
| Rating assigned considering all the Medium Risk Portfolios | Rating assigned considering all the Portfolios in the database |
Capital Growth
An investment of 1000$, since January 1997, now would be worth 7391.85$, with a total return of 639.19% (8.33% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 4197.28$, with a net total return of 319.73% (5.91% annualized).
Drawdowns
Worst drawdowns since January 1997 - Chart and Data
Drawdown period |
Recovery period |
Total |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months |
| -27.04% | Nov 2007 | Feb 2009 | 16 | Apr 2010 | 14 | 30 |
| -10.72% | Feb 2020 | Mar 2020 | 2 | Jun 2020 | 3 | 5 |
| -10.30% | Sep 2000 | Sep 2002 | 25 | May 2003 | 8 | 33 |
| -8.06% | Sep 2018 | Dec 2018 | 4 | Apr 2019 | 4 | 8 |
| -8.06% | Jul 1998 | Aug 1998 | 2 | Nov 1998 | 3 | 5 |
| -6.25% | May 2011 | Sep 2011 | 5 | Dec 2011 | 3 | 8 |
| -6.09% | May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 2 | Sep 2010 | 3 | 5 |
| -5.47% | Mar 2015 | Sep 2015 | 7 | Apr 2016 | 7 | 14 |
| -4.60% | Apr 2000 | May 2000 | 2 | Aug 2000 | 3 | 5 |
| -3.54% | Apr 2004 | Apr 2004 | 1 | Oct 2004 | 6 | 7 |
| -3.41% | Feb 1997 | Mar 1997 | 2 | May 1997 | 2 | 4 |
| -3.30% | Feb 1999 | Feb 1999 | 1 | Apr 1999 | 2 | 3 |
| -3.29% | Jul 1999 | Sep 1999 | 3 | Oct 1999 | 1 | 4 |
| -3.24% | Sep 2020 | Oct 2020 | 2 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 3 |
| -3.18% | May 2013 | Jun 2013 | 2 | Jul 2013 | 1 | 3 |
| -2.92% | Feb 2018 | Mar 2018 | 2 | Jul 2018 | 4 | 6 |
| -2.80% | Aug 1997 | Aug 1997 | 1 | Sep 1997 | 1 | 2 |
| -2.76% | Sep 2021 | Sep 2021 | 1 | Oct 2021 | 1 | 2 |
| -2.63% | May 2019 | May 2019 | 1 | Jun 2019 | 1 | 2 |
| -2.50% | Aug 2013 | Aug 2013 | 1 | Sep 2013 | 1 | 2 |
Rolling Returns ( more details)
Scott Burns Couch Potato Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns
| Return (*) | Negative Periods |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rolling Period | Average | Best | Worst | |
| 1 Year |
+9.29% |
+32.07% Mar 2009 - Feb 2010 |
-25.31% Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 |
12.92% |
| 2 Years |
+8.81% |
+23.49% Mar 2009 - Feb 2011 |
-11.24% Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
9.01% |
| 3 Years |
+8.57% |
+20.59% Dec 1994 - Nov 1997 |
-5.41% Mar 2006 - Feb 2009 |
3.92% |
| 5 Years |
+8.43% |
+17.45% Jan 1995 - Dec 1999 |
-0.85% Mar 2004 - Feb 2009 |
0.32% |
| 7 Years |
+8.17% |
+14.91% Jul 1991 - Jun 1998 |
+2.22% Mar 2002 - Feb 2009 |
0.00% |
| 10 Years |
+7.80% |
+12.29% Jul 1991 - Jun 2001 |
+2.76% Mar 1999 - Feb 2009 |
0.00% |
| 15 Years |
+7.54% |
+10.21% Dec 1991 - Nov 2006 |
+5.76% Feb 2001 - Jan 2016 |
0.00% |
| 20 Years |
+7.74% |
+9.18% Dec 1994 - Nov 2014 |
+5.74% Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 |
0.00% |
* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods
If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Scott Burns Couch Potato Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.
Seasonality
Scott Burns Couch Potato Portfolio Seasonality: in which months is it better to invest?
In the table below, the average monthly return is represented.
Below each return, it's also mentioned the probability of obtaining a positive monthly result (Win %).
Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
| Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Average Win % |
0.78 63% |
0.28 67% |
0.45 57% |
1.34 80% |
0.73 70% |
0.40 65% |
1.05 68% |
0.54 65% |
0.23 61% |
0.75 68% |
1.21 74% |
1.31 77% |
| Best Year |
5.0 2019 |
3.5 1998 |
7.0 2009 |
7.5 2020 |
5.3 2003 |
4.0 2019 |
6.3 1997 |
4.5 2000 |
4.9 2010 |
6.3 2011 |
6.4 2020 |
8.0 1991 |
| Worst Year |
-4.0 2009 |
-6.2 2009 |
-7.5 2020 |
-3.5 2004 |
-4.0 2010 |
-3.0 2008 |
-2.8 2002 |
-7.0 1998 |
-6.4 2008 |
-12.3 2008 |
-3.1 2000 |
-4.5 2018 |
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Monthly/Yearly Returns
Scott Burns Couch Potato Portfolio monthly and yearly returns: how is the distribution of the returns recorded so far?
Yearly Return(%) |
Monthly Return(%) |
|||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Infl.Adj | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| 2021 |
+15.67 | +7.98 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.4 | -2.8 | 4.1 | -0.4 | 2.2 |
| 2020 |
+15.93 | +14.44 | 1.0 | -3.5 | -7.5 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 4.0 | 3.9 | -2.0 | -1.3 | 6.4 | 2.9 |
| 2019 |
+19.51 | +16.87 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2.2 | -2.6 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| 2018 |
-3.32 | -5.14 | 2.2 | -2.4 | -0.5 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 2.1 | -0.4 | -4.6 | 1.3 | -4.5 |
| 2017 |
+12.07 | +9.76 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| 2016 |
+8.75 | +6.57 | -2.1 | 0.6 | 4.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 2.3 | -0.1 | 0.5 | -1.4 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 2015 |
-0.70 | -1.33 | 0.2 | 2.1 | -0.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | -1.4 | 1.1 | -3.6 | -1.7 | 4.0 | 0.2 | -1.6 |
| 2014 |
+8.07 | +7.37 | -0.5 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 1.5 | -1.0 | 2.4 | -2.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | -0.5 |
| 2013 |
+12.48 | +10.81 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | -0.7 | -2.5 | 3.6 | -2.5 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| 2012 |
+11.42 | +9.49 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | -2.3 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | -0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 2011 |
+7.12 | +3.94 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 2.6 | -0.4 | -0.5 | 0.8 | -2.6 | -3.6 | 6.3 | 0.1 | 0.5 |
| 2010 |
+11.78 | +10.20 | -1.0 | 1.0 | 3.2 | 2.3 | -4.0 | -2.2 | 3.2 | -1.3 | 4.9 | 3.2 | -0.6 | 2.8 |
| 2009 |
+18.92 | +15.66 | -4.0 | -6.2 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 0.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 3.1 | -0.9 | 4.3 | 0.5 |
| 2008 |
-18.47 | -18.45 | -1.3 | -0.4 | -0.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | -3.0 | -0.6 | 1.1 | -6.4 | -12.3 | -2.9 | 4.6 |
| 2007 |
+8.64 | +4.36 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 1.2 | -1.0 | -0.7 | 1.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
| 2006 |
+7.99 | +5.33 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.4 | -1.5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.7 | -0.5 |
| 2005 |
+4.40 | +1.03 | -1.2 | 0.8 | -0.8 | -0.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | -1.8 | 2.4 | 0.5 |
| 2004 |
+10.53 | +6.96 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.3 | -3.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | -1.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 2.6 |
| 2003 |
+19.38 | +17.00 | -1.1 | 1.1 | -0.5 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 0.4 | -1.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 2.6 |
| 2002 |
-1.93 | -4.31 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 1.5 | -0.8 | 0.1 | -2.6 | -2.8 | 2.4 | -2.8 | 1.2 | 2.5 | -0.2 |
| 2001 |
-1.68 | -3.23 | 2.9 | -3.9 | -2.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | -0.8 | 0.0 | -2.6 | -3.7 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.2 |
| 2000 |
+3.54 | +0.10 | -1.8 | 2.5 | 4.2 | -2.8 | -1.8 | 3.3 | -0.4 | 4.5 | -2.3 | -0.2 | -3.1 | 2.0 |
| 1999 |
+9.67 | +6.81 | 2.3 | -3.3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | -1.6 | 2.2 | -2.0 | -0.6 | -0.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 3.6 |
| 1998 |
+16.26 | +14.43 | 1.0 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | -0.9 | 2.4 | -1.1 | -7.0 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.2 |
| 1997 |
+21.85 | +19.82 | 2.6 | -0.1 | -3.4 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 6.3 | -2.8 | 4.1 | -0.9 | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| 1996 |
+11.14 | +7.51 | 1.4 | -0.9 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | -2.8 | 1.0 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 4.9 | -1.6 |
| 1995 |
+29.40 | +26.21 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 0.1 | 3.0 | 1.8 |
| 1994 |
-3.21 | -5.66 | 2.8 | -2.9 | -4.3 | -0.4 | 0.2 | -1.7 | 3.0 | 2.2 | -2.4 | 0.6 | -1.7 | 1.6 |
| 1993 |
+13.19 | +10.09 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.3 | -1.0 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 3.8 | 0.2 | 0.9 | -1.5 | 1.1 |
| 1992 |
+8.92 | +5.79 | -1.7 | 1.4 | -1.9 | 0.5 | 1.8 | -0.1 | 3.8 | -0.6 | 1.6 | -0.7 | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| 1991 |
- | - | -2.4 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 1.2 | -1.3 | 8.0 | |||||
* Note: Portofolio Returns, up to December 2003, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
In particular, it has been used:
- VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2001
- TIP - iShares TIPS Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2003