iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT): Historical Returns

Data Source: from January 1871 to March 2024 (~153 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 March 2024
Live Update: Apr 19 2024, 02:00PM Eastern Time
Category: Fixed Income
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF
ETF • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
0.15%
1 Day
Apr 19 2024, 02:00PM Eastern Time
5.67%
Current Month
April 2024

In the last 30 Years, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF obtained a 5.27% compound annual return, with a 12.29% standard deviation.

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The ETF is related to the following investment themes:

  • Asset Class: Bond
  • Region: North America
  • Country: U.S.
  • Bond - Duration: Long-Term

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF is part of the following Lazy Portfolios:

Portfolio Name Author TLT Weight Currency
All Weather Portfolio Ray Dalio 40.00% USD
All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin Ray Dalio 40.00% USD
Permanent Portfolio Harry Browne 25.00% USD
Paul Boyer Portfolio Paul Boyer 25.00% USD
Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin Harry Browne 25.00% USD
Golden Butterfly Tyler 20.00% USD
Golden Butterfly with Bitcoin 20.00% USD
Weird Portfolio Value Stock Geek 20.00% USD
Global Market Portfolio Credit Suisse 15.00% USD
GAA Global Asset Allocation Mebane Faber 13.50% USD
Rob Arnott Portfolio Rob Arnott 10.00% USD
Family Taxable Portfolio Ted Aronson 10.00% USD
Gretchen Tai Portfolio Gretchen Tai 4.00% USD

Investment Returns as of Mar 31, 2024

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:
  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • the reinvestment of dividends.
  • the actual US Inflation rates.
ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND (TLT) ETF
Consolidated returns as of 31 March 2024
Live Update: Apr 19 2024, 02:00PM Eastern Time
Swipe left to see all data
  Chg (%) Return (%) Return (%) as of Mar 31, 2024
  1 Day Time ET(*) Apr 2024 1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~153Y)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF 0.15 -5.67 0.78 8.74 -7.84 -3.54 0.98 5.27 4.78
US Inflation Adjusted return 0.40 7.02 -10.94 -7.42 -1.81 2.66 2.60
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1871
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Mar 2024. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 3.48% , 5Y: 4.19% , 10Y: 2.84% , 30Y: 2.54%

In 2023, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF granted a 3.41% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF: Dividend Yield page.

Capital Growth as of Mar 31, 2024

An investment of 1$, since April 1994, now would be worth 4.66$, with a total return of 366.20% (5.27% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 2.20$, with a net total return of 119.64% (2.66% annualized).
An investment of 1$, since January 1871, now would be worth 1278.05$, with a total return of 127704.74% (4.78% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 51.08$, with a net total return of 5007.81% (2.60% annualized).

Investment Metrics as of Mar 31, 2024

Metrics of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF, updated as of 31 March 2024.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • the reinvestment of dividends.
  • the actual US Inflation rates.
ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND (TLT) ETF
Advanced Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 31 March 2024 (~153 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of Mar 31, 2024
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
(~153Y)
Investment Return (%) 0.78 -3.71 8.74 -7.84 -9.06 -3.54 0.98 3.53 5.27 4.78
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) details 0.40 -4.78 7.02 -10.94 -13.91 -7.42 -1.81 0.92 2.66 2.60
US Inflation (%) 0.38 1.13 1.61 3.48 5.63 4.19 2.84 2.59 2.54 2.12
Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -20.14 -42.18 -47.74 -47.74 -47.74 -47.74 -47.74
Start to Recovery (# months) details 11* 28* 44* 44* 44* 44* 44*
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 05 2021 12 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08
Start to Bottom (# months) 6 23 39 39 39 39 39
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10
Bottom to End (# months) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
End (yyyy mm) - - - - - - -
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
-7.36
Start to Recovery (# months) details 50
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 05 2021 12 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 1950 01
Start to Bottom (# months) 6 23 39 39 39 39 42
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 1953 06
Bottom to End (# months) 5 5 5 5 5 5 8
End (yyyy mm) - - - - - - 1954 02
Longest negative period (# months) details 12* 36* 60* 115 145 145 170
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 04 2021 04 2019 04 2014 04 2011 10 2011 10 1945 12
Period End (yyyy mm) 2024 03 2024 03 2024 03 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 1960 01
Annualized Return (%) -7.84 -9.06 -3.54 -0.44 -0.60 -0.60 -0.01
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -21.38 -47.90 -56.09 -56.09 -56.09 -56.09 -70.00
Start to Recovery (# months) details 12* 32* 44* 44* 44* 44* 607
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 04 2021 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 1941 02
Start to Bottom (# months) 7 27 39 39 39 39 488
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 1981 09
Bottom to End (# months) 5 5 5 5 5 5 119
End (yyyy mm) - - - - - - 1991 08
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
Start to Recovery (# months) details
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 04 2021 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 1941 02
Start to Bottom (# months) 7 27 39 39 39 39 488
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 1981 09
Bottom to End (# months) 5 5 5 5 5 5 119
End (yyyy mm) - - - - - - 1991 08
Longest negative period (# months) details 12* 36* 60* 120* 221 221 1051
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 04 2021 04 2019 04 2014 04 2005 06 2005 06 1894 03
Period End (yyyy mm) 2024 03 2024 03 2024 03 2024 03 2023 10 2023 10 1981 09
Annualized Return (%) -10.94 -13.91 -7.42 -1.81 -0.11 -0.11 0.00
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Standard Deviation (%) 17.29 16.24 16.01 13.74 13.73 12.29 7.53
Sharpe Ratio -0.75 -0.71 -0.34 -0.02 0.16 0.24 0.10
Sortino Ratio -1.30 -1.09 -0.52 -0.03 0.24 0.36 0.16
Ulcer Index 9.29 25.01 24.72 18.64 14.84 12.36 6.33
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation -0.45 -0.56 -0.22 0.07 0.26 0.43 0.63
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown -0.39 -0.21 -0.07 0.02 0.07 0.11 0.10
% Positive Months details 41% 41% 45% 49% 51% 55% 64%
Positive Months 5 15 27 59 124 198 1190
Negative Months 7 21 33 61 116 162 649
LONG TERM RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 0.98 9.39 9.52 17.64
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized -0.15 -0.15 -0.83
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized -1.81 7.53 7.53 13.18
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized -2.86 -2.86 -6.48
ROLLING PERIODS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Over the latest 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 37.76 15.28 12.57 9.52 8.83 5.27
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -33.64 -17.32 -3.94 -0.15 3.18
% Positive Periods 72% 91% 93% 99% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 77.46 23.05 18.25 10.12 6.60 6.45
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - - 0.81 3.51
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 37.26 12.90 10.38 7.53 6.44 2.66
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -38.41 -21.79 -7.64 -2.86 0.59
% Positive Periods 66% 85% 91% 90% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 77.46 23.05 18.25 10.12 6.60 6.45
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - - 0.81 3.51
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Over all the available data source (Jan 1871 - Mar 2024)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 67.15 30.06 28.14 17.64 13.28 11.72
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -33.64 -17.32 -3.94 -0.83 0.24 1.28
% Positive Periods 79% 91% 95% 99% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 77.46 23.05 13.90 7.61 3.62 2.28
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - - - -
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 63.62 26.19 23.78 13.18 9.66 8.46
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -38.41 -21.79 -12.22 -6.48 -3.73 -2.64
% Positive Periods 61% 70% 67% 64% 69% 80%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 77.46 23.05 13.90 7.61 3.62 2.28
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - - - -
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio.
  • Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
  • Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
  • Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
  • Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money in any case (money amount withdrawal).
    For instance: Your initial invested capital is 100.000$; withdrawal rate (annualized) is 4%. This means that, in the first month, you will withdraw 100.000 * 4% * 1/12 = 333.33$. The second month, you’ll withdraw 333.33$ plus the inflation monthly rate. You’ll continue adjusting your withdraw monthly for inflation.
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.

Correlations as of Mar 31, 2024

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.

Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1. If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.

Monthly correlations of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF vs the main Asset Classes, over different timeframes. Columns are sortable (click on table header to sort).

ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND (TLT) ETF
Monthly correlations as of 31 March 2024
Swipe left to see all data
Correlation vs TLT
Asset Class 1 Year 5 Years 10 Years 30 Years Since
Jan 1992
VTI
US Total Stock Market
0.81
0.20
0.08
-0.12
-0.11
SPY
US Large Cap
0.80
0.20
0.09
-0.11
-0.09
IJR
US Small Cap
0.80
0.06
-0.04
-0.18
-0.17
VNQ
US REITs
0.91
0.36
0.40
0.10
0.11
QQQ
US Technology
0.70
0.33
0.19
-0.09
-0.08
PFF
Preferred Stocks
0.81
0.35
0.34
0.14
0.15
EFA
EAFE Stocks
0.84
0.22
0.11
-0.10
-0.08
VT
World All Countries
0.82
0.21
0.10
-0.13
-0.11
EEM
Emerging Markets
0.64
0.21
0.14
-0.12
-0.08
VGK
Europe
0.84
0.21
0.10
-0.11
-0.09
VPL
Pacific
0.81
0.22
0.11
-0.07
-0.04
FLLA
Latin America
0.76
0.02
-0.02
-0.16
-0.15
BND
US Total Bond Market
0.98
0.86
0.87
0.85
0.85
BIL
US Cash
0.25
0.09
0.04
0.05
0.05
TIP
TIPS
0.93
0.69
0.69
0.66
0.67
LQD
Invest. Grade Bonds
0.98
0.74
0.73
0.66
0.67
HYG
High Yield Bonds
0.94
0.29
0.22
0.05
0.07
CWB
US Convertible Bonds
0.80
0.20
0.12
-0.09
-0.08
BNDX
International Bonds
0.95
0.72
0.74
0.52
0.53
EMB
Emerg. Market Bonds
0.92
0.41
0.41
0.27
0.29
GLD
Gold
0.23
0.42
0.42
0.20
0.19
DBC
Commodities
-0.23
-0.34
-0.35
-0.17
-0.16

If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND (TLT) ETF
Drawdown periods
Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 April 1994 - 31 March 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 31 March 2024 (~153 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
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Rolling Returns

( more details)

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND (TLT) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 April 1994 - 31 March 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 31 March 2024 (~153 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
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Monthly Returns

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND (TLT) ETF
Monthly Returns Distribution
Data Source: 1 April 1994 - 31 March 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 31 March 2024 (~153 years)
198 Positive Months (55%) - 162 Negative Months (45%)
1190 Positive Months (65%) - 649 Negative Months (35%)
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(Scroll down to see all data)
Investment Returns, up to December 2002, have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets.
You can find additional information on extended Data Sources here.

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