iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT): Historical Returns

Data Source: from January 1871 to September 2023 (~153 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 September 2023
Live Update: Oct 02 2023, 04:00PM Eastern Time
Category: Fixed Income
ETF: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
ETF • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
1.98%
1 Day
Oct 02 2023, 04:00PM Eastern Time
1.98%
Current Month
October 2023

In the last 30 Years, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF obtained a 4.72% compound annual return, with a 12.08% standard deviation.

Table of contents

The ETF is related to the following investment themes:

  • Asset Class: Bond
  • Region: North America
  • Country: U.S.
  • Bond - Duration: Long-Term

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF is part of the following Lazy Portfolios:

Portfolio Name Author TLT Weight
All Weather Portfolio Ray Dalio 40.00%
All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin Ray Dalio 40.00%
Permanent Portfolio Harry Browne 25.00%
Paul Boyer Portfolio Paul Boyer 25.00%
Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin Harry Browne 25.00%
Golden Butterfly Tyler 20.00%
Golden Butterfly with Bitcoin 20.00%
Zefiro Portfolio Zefiro SCF 20.00%
Weird Portfolio Value Stock Geek 20.00%
Yale Endowment David Swensen 15.00%
Global Market Portfolio Credit Suisse 15.00%
GAA Global Asset Allocation Mebane Faber 13.50%
Rob Arnott Portfolio Rob Arnott 10.00%
Family Taxable Portfolio Ted Aronson 10.00%
Gretchen Tai Portfolio Gretchen Tai 4.00%

Investment Returns as of Sep 30, 2023

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:
  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • the reinvestment of dividends.
ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND (TLT) ETF
Consolidated returns as of 30 September 2023
Live Update: Oct 02 2023, 04:00PM Eastern Time
Swipe left to see all data
  Chg (%) Return (%) Return (%) as of Sep 30, 2023
  1 Day Time ET(*) Oct 2023 1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~153Y)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF -1.98 -1.98 -7.95 -15.25 -10.95 -3.44 0.55 4.72 4.74
US Inflation Adjusted return -7.95 -16.68 -13.91 -7.14 -2.14 2.13 2.56
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1871
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Aug 2023. Waiting for updates, inflation of Sep 2023 is set to 0%. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 3.44% , 5Y: 3.99% , 10Y: 2.75% , 30Y: 2.53%

In 2022, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF granted a 1.81% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF: Dividend Yield page.

Capital Growth as of Sep 30, 2023

An investment of 1$, since October 1993, now would be worth 3.99$, with a total return of 298.79% (4.72% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 1.88$, with a net total return of 88.47% (2.13% annualized).
An investment of 1$, since January 1871, now would be worth 1175.31$, with a total return of 117431.22% (4.74% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 47.75$, with a net total return of 4674.80% (2.56% annualized).

Investment Metrics as of Sep 30, 2023

Metrics of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF, updated as of 30 September 2023.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • the reinvestment of dividends.
ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND (TLT) ETF
Advanced Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 30 September 2023 (~153 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of Sep 30, 2023
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
(~153Y)
Investment Return (%) -7.95 -13.10 -15.25 -10.95 -16.72 -3.44 0.55 3.31 4.72 4.74
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) details -7.95 -13.64 -16.68 -13.91 -21.18 -7.14 -2.14 0.73 2.13 2.56
US Inflation (%) 0.00 0.63 1.72 3.44 5.66 3.99 2.75 2.56 2.53 2.12
Waiting for updates, inflation of Sep 2023 is temporarily set to 0%. Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -15.67 -42.24 -44.73 -44.73 -44.73 -44.73 -44.73
Start to Recovery (# months) details 8* 36* 38* 38* 38* 38* 38*
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 02 2020 10 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08
Start to Bottom (# months) 8 36 38 38 38 38 38
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 09 2023 09 2023 09 2023 09 2023 09 2023 09 2023 09
Bottom to End (# months) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
End (yyyy mm) - - - - - - -
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
-7.36
Start to Recovery (# months) details 50
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 02 2020 10 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 1950 01
Start to Bottom (# months) 8 36 38 38 38 38 42
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 09 2023 09 2023 09 2023 09 2023 09 2023 09 1953 06
Bottom to End (# months) 0 0 0 0 0 0 8
End (yyyy mm) - - - - - - 1954 02
Longest negative period (# months) details 12* 36* 60* 113* 144* 144* 170
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2022 10 2020 10 2018 10 2014 05 2011 10 2011 10 1945 12
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 09 2023 09 2023 09 2023 09 2023 09 2023 09 1960 01
Annualized Return (%) -10.95 -16.72 -3.44 -0.08 -0.13 -0.13 -0.01
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -17.83 -51.03 -53.36 -53.36 -53.36 -53.36 -70.04
Start to Recovery (# months) details 8* 36* 38* 38* 38* 38* 607
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 02 2020 10 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 1941 02
Start to Bottom (# months) 8 36 38 38 38 38 488
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 09 2023 09 2023 09 2023 09 2023 09 2023 09 1981 09
Bottom to End (# months) 0 0 0 0 0 0 119
End (yyyy mm) - - - - - - 1991 08
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
Start to Recovery (# months) details
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 02 2020 10 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 1941 02
Start to Bottom (# months) 8 36 38 38 38 38 488
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 09 2023 09 2023 09 2023 09 2023 09 2023 09 1981 09
Bottom to End (# months) 0 0 0 0 0 0 119
End (yyyy mm) - - - - - - 1991 08
Longest negative period (# months) details 12* 36* 60* 120* 188* 188* 1051
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2022 10 2020 10 2018 10 2013 10 2008 02 2008 02 1894 03
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 09 2023 09 2023 09 2023 09 2023 09 2023 09 1981 09
Annualized Return (%) -13.91 -21.18 -7.14 -2.14 0.00 0.00 0.00
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Standard Deviation (%) 16.78 14.25 15.14 13.15 13.39 12.08 7.45
Sharpe Ratio -0.92 -1.29 -0.33 -0.03 0.15 0.21 0.10
Sortino Ratio -1.46 -1.92 -0.50 -0.04 0.23 0.30 0.15
Ulcer Index 5.77 24.26 21.06 16.21 13.33 11.27 5.89
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation -0.65 -1.17 -0.23 0.04 0.25 0.39 0.64
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown -0.70 -0.40 -0.08 0.01 0.07 0.11 0.11
% Positive Months details 41% 36% 46% 50% 52% 55% 64%
Positive Months 5 13 28 60 126 198 1187
Negative Months 7 23 32 60 114 162 646
LONG TERM RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 0.55 9.39 9.52 17.64
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized -0.14 -0.14 -0.83
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized -2.14 7.54 7.54 13.18
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized -2.63 -2.63 -6.49
ROLLING PERIOD RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Over the latest 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 37.76 15.28 12.57 9.52 8.83 4.72
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -33.64 -16.72 -3.44 -0.14 3.31
% Positive Periods 71% 93% 95% 99% 100% 100%
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 37.29 12.93 10.40 7.54 6.46 2.13
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -38.41 -21.18 -7.14 -2.63 0.73
% Positive Periods 66% 87% 93% 92% 100% 100%
Over all the available data source (Jan 1871 - Sep 2023)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 67.15 30.06 28.14 17.64 13.28 11.72
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -33.64 -16.72 -3.44 -0.83 0.24 1.28
% Positive Periods 79% 92% 96% 99% 100% 100%
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 63.46 26.19 23.79 13.18 9.66 8.46
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -38.41 -21.18 -12.22 -6.49 -3.73 -2.63
% Positive Periods 61% 70% 67% 65% 69% 80%
WITHDRAWAL RATES (WR)
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Safe WR (%) 25.14 21.50 12.04 7.11 5.91 4.88
Perpetual WR (%) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.73 2.09 2.50
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio
  • Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
  • Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation)
  • Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio
  • Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame
  • Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the original portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money (dollar amount withdrawal).
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year, while retaining the inflation adjusted portfolio balance (percentage withdrawal).
Analyze your Portfolio: Backtest Now!
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Correlations as of Sep 30, 2023

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.

Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1. If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.

Monthly correlations of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF vs the main Asset Classes, over different timeframes. Columns are sortable (click on table header to sort).

ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND (TLT) ETF
Monthly correlations as of 30 September 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Correlation vs TLT
Asset Class 1 Year 5 Years 10 Years 30 Years Since
Jan 1992
VTI
US Total Stock Market
0.51
0.09
0.01
-0.14
-0.13
SPY
US Large Cap
0.54
0.10
0.02
-0.12
-0.12
IJR
US Small Cap
0.24
-0.10
-0.14
-0.21
-0.20
VNQ
US REITs
0.69
0.23
0.35
0.08
0.08
QQQ
US Technology
0.63
0.24
0.14
-0.10
-0.09
PFF
Preferred Stocks
0.68
0.25
0.29
0.12
0.13
EFA
EAFE Stocks
0.75
0.12
0.03
-0.11
-0.10
VT
World All Countries
0.67
0.10
0.02
-0.14
-0.13
EEM
Emerging Markets
0.80
0.14
0.08
-0.11
-0.09
VGK
Europe
0.68
0.11
0.03
-0.13
-0.12
VPL
Pacific
0.81
0.12
0.03
-0.07
-0.06
FLLA
Latin America
0.35
-0.11
-0.10
-0.18
-0.17
BND
US Total Bond Market
0.96
0.84
0.86
0.84
0.84
BIL
US Cash
-0.05
0.04
-0.02
0.04
0.04
TIP
TIPS
0.76
0.66
0.68
0.66
0.67
LQD
Invest. Grade Bonds
0.95
0.69
0.70
0.65
0.66
HYG
High Yield Bonds
0.66
0.19
0.15
0.04
0.05
CWB
US Convertible Bonds
0.52
0.10
0.05
-0.11
-0.11
BNDX
International Bonds
0.80
0.68
0.71
0.51
0.51
EMB
Emerg. Market Bonds
0.83
0.35
0.36
0.26
0.27
GLD
Gold
0.87
0.47
0.46
0.21
0.20
DBC
Commodities
0.04
-0.34
-0.35
-0.16
-0.16

If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND (TLT) ETF
Drawdown periods
Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 October 1993 - 30 September 2023 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 30 September 2023 (~153 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months Ulcer Index
-44.73% Aug 2020 Sep 2023 38 in progress 38 26.28
-21.80% Jan 2009 Dec 2009 12 Sep 2011 21 33 14.82
-18.03% Aug 2012 Dec 2013 17 Nov 2014 11 28 9.78
-15.07% Aug 2016 Oct 2018 27 May 2019 7 34 10.16
-14.17% Feb 2015 Jun 2015 5 Jun 2016 12 17 7.91
-11.60% Jun 2003 Jul 2003 2 Oct 2004 15 17 6.01
-11.07% Feb 1994 Oct 1994 9 May 1995 7 16 7.54
-9.72% Jul 2005 May 2006 11 Nov 2006 6 17 5.18
-9.56% Oct 1998 Dec 1999 15 Aug 2000 8 23 5.49
-8.93% Jan 1996 May 1996 5 Nov 1996 6 11 5.96
-8.18% Nov 2001 Mar 2002 5 Jul 2002 4 9 4.90
-7.22% Sep 2019 Dec 2019 4 Feb 2020 2 6 3.60
-7.03% Jan 2012 Mar 2012 3 May 2012 2 5 3.28
-5.35% Dec 1996 Mar 1997 4 Jul 1997 4 8 2.75
-5.10% Apr 2008 May 2008 2 Sep 2008 4 6 2.61
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months Ulcer Index
-53.36% Aug 2020 Sep 2023 38 in progress 38 32.72
-24.28% Jan 2009 Mar 2010 15 Sep 2011 18 33 17.60
-19.41% Aug 2012 Dec 2013 17 Dec 2014 12 29 11.25
-19.19% Aug 2016 Oct 2018 27 Aug 2019 10 37 12.21
-15.95% Feb 2015 Jun 2015 5 Jun 2016 12 17 9.22
-13.29% Jul 2005 May 2006 11 Nov 2007 18 29 7.04
-13.22% Nov 1993 Oct 1994 12 May 1995 7 19 8.57
-12.08% Oct 1998 Dec 1999 15 Dec 2000 12 27 7.15
-11.80% Jun 2003 Jul 2003 2 Jan 2005 18 20 6.79
-10.73% Jan 1996 May 1996 5 Jul 1997 14 19 6.75
-8.75% Nov 2001 Mar 2002 5 Aug 2002 5 10 4.96
-8.53% Jan 2012 Mar 2012 3 May 2012 2 5 4.22
-7.37% Sep 2019 Dec 2019 4 Feb 2020 2 6 3.74
-6.46% Apr 2008 May 2008 2 Nov 2008 6 8 3.69
-3.99% Mar 2001 May 2001 3 Jul 2001 2 5 2.66
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months Ulcer Index
-44.73% Aug 2020 Sep 2023 38 in progress 38 26.28
-23.12% Jul 1979 Sep 1981 27 Aug 1982 11 38 12.75
-21.80% Jan 2009 Dec 2009 12 Sep 2011 21 33 14.82
-18.03% Aug 2012 Dec 2013 17 Nov 2014 11 28 9.78
-15.07% Aug 2016 Oct 2018 27 May 2019 7 34 10.16
-14.17% Feb 2015 Jun 2015 5 Jun 2016 12 17 7.91
-13.97% May 1983 May 1984 13 Sep 1984 4 17 6.84
-13.85% Apr 1967 Dec 1969 33 Jan 1971 13 46 7.83
-13.63% May 1958 Sep 1959 17 Feb 1961 17 34 8.32
-12.25% Mar 1987 Sep 1987 7 Feb 1988 5 12 6.50
-11.60% Jun 2003 Jul 2003 2 Oct 2004 15 17 6.01
-11.07% Feb 1994 Oct 1994 9 May 1995 7 16 7.54
-10.35% Jan 1931 Jan 1932 13 Jul 1932 6 19 4.49
-9.72% Jul 2005 May 2006 11 Nov 2006 6 17 5.18
-9.56% Oct 1998 Dec 1999 15 Aug 2000 8 23 5.49
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months Ulcer Index
-70.04% Feb 1941 Sep 1981 488 Aug 1991 119 607 36.95
-53.36% Aug 2020 Sep 2023 38 in progress 38 32.72
-48.66% Apr 1916 Jun 1920 51 Nov 1926 77 128 24.66
-24.28% Jan 2009 Mar 2010 15 Sep 2011 18 33 17.60
-19.41% Aug 2012 Dec 2013 17 Dec 2014 12 29 11.25
-19.19% Aug 2016 Oct 2018 27 Aug 2019 10 37 12.21
-16.64% Jul 1879 Jan 1880 7 Dec 1882 35 42 7.27
-15.95% Feb 2015 Jun 2015 5 Jun 2016 12 17 9.22
-14.79% Feb 1899 Apr 1910 135 Feb 1911 10 145 8.82
-13.84% Aug 1897 May 1898 10 Oct 1898 5 15 5.98
-13.29% Jul 2005 May 2006 11 Nov 2007 18 29 7.04
-13.22% Nov 1993 Oct 1994 12 May 1995 7 19 8.57
-12.38% Jul 1892 Feb 1893 8 Dec 1893 10 18 6.42
-12.08% Oct 1998 Dec 1999 15 Dec 2000 12 27 7.15
-11.80% Jun 2003 Jul 2003 2 Jan 2005 18 20 6.79

Rolling Returns

( more details)

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND (TLT) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 October 1993 - 30 September 2023 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 30 September 2023 (~153 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -33.64 11/2021
10/2022
0.66$ -6.69 0.93$ 6.67 1.06$ 17.26 1.17$ 37.76 02/2011
01/2012
1.37$ -10.95 28.08%
2Y -20.55 11/2020
10/2022
0.63$ 0.12 1.00$ 7.14 1.14$ 12.82 1.27$ 22.27 08/2018
07/2020
1.49$ -19.75 14.84%
3Y -16.72 10/2020
09/2023
0.57$ 2.76 1.08$ 7.04 1.22$ 11.07 1.37$ 15.28 08/2009
07/2012
1.53$ -16.72 6.46%
5Y -3.44 10/2018
09/2023
0.83$ 3.68 1.19$ 7.02 1.40$ 9.44 1.57$ 12.57 06/2007
05/2012
1.80$ -3.44 4.65%
7Y -3.96 10/2016
09/2023
0.75$ 4.86 1.39$ 7.36 1.64$ 8.71 1.79$ 11.05 01/2002
12/2008
2.08$ -3.96 4.69%
10Y -0.14 11/2012
10/2022
0.98$ 5.77 1.75$ 7.24 2.01$ 8.36 2.23$ 9.52 11/1994
10/2004
2.48$ 0.55 0.41%
15Y 2.33 10/2008
09/2023
1.41$ 5.80 2.32$ 7.02 2.76$ 8.10 3.21$ 9.12 06/1997
05/2012
3.70$ 2.33 0.00%
20Y 3.31 10/2003
09/2023
1.91$ 5.52 2.92$ 7.01 3.87$ 7.91 4.58$ 8.83 02/1995
01/2015
5.43$ 3.31 0.00%
30Y 4.72 10/1993
09/2023
3.98$ 4.72 3.98$ 4.72 3.98$ 4.72 3.98$ 4.72 10/1993
09/2023
3.98$ 4.72 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -38.41 11/2021
10/2022
0.61$ -9.23 0.90$ 4.41 1.04$ 15.34 1.15$ 37.29 05/2019
04/2020
1.37$ -13.91 33.81%
2Y -25.73 11/2020
10/2022
0.55$ -2.03 0.95$ 4.22 1.08$ 10.99 1.23$ 20.58 08/2018
07/2020
1.45$ -24.15 21.36%
3Y -21.18 10/2020
09/2023
0.48$ 0.77 1.02$ 4.71 1.14$ 8.67 1.28$ 12.93 08/2009
07/2012
1.44$ -21.18 12.31%
5Y -7.14 10/2018
09/2023
0.69$ 1.84 1.09$ 4.64 1.25$ 6.94 1.39$ 10.40 08/2007
07/2012
1.64$ -7.14 6.31%
7Y -7.21 10/2016
09/2023
0.59$ 2.64 1.20$ 4.91 1.39$ 6.44 1.54$ 8.33 01/2002
12/2008
1.75$ -7.21 7.22%
10Y -2.63 11/2012
10/2022
0.76$ 3.57 1.41$ 4.86 1.60$ 5.95 1.78$ 7.54 04/2010
03/2020
2.06$ -2.14 7.05%
15Y 0.04 10/2008
09/2023
1.00$ 3.59 1.69$ 4.79 2.01$ 5.68 2.29$ 6.67 02/2000
01/2015
2.63$ 0.04 0.00%
20Y 0.73 10/2003
09/2023
1.15$ 3.04 1.82$ 4.75 2.52$ 5.60 2.97$ 6.46 02/1995
01/2015
3.49$ 0.73 0.00%
30Y 2.13 10/1993
09/2023
1.88$ 2.13 1.88$ 2.13 1.88$ 2.13 1.88$ 2.13 10/1993
09/2023
1.88$ 2.13 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -33.64 11/2021
10/2022
0.66$ -1.42 0.98$ 4.27 1.04$ 11.00 1.10$ 67.15 04/1985
03/1986
1.67$ -10.95 20.64%
2Y -20.55 11/2020
10/2022
0.63$ 0.80 1.01$ 4.18 1.08$ 9.84 1.20$ 49.11 07/1984
06/1986
2.22$ -19.75 11.66%
3Y -16.72 10/2020
09/2023
0.57$ 1.46 1.04$ 4.28 1.13$ 9.09 1.29$ 30.06 09/1983
08/1986
2.20$ -16.72 7.79%
5Y -3.44 10/2018
09/2023
0.83$ 1.80 1.09$ 4.43 1.24$ 8.31 1.49$ 28.14 09/1981
08/1986
3.45$ -3.44 3.83%
7Y -3.96 10/2016
09/2023
0.75$ 2.11 1.15$ 4.28 1.34$ 8.13 1.72$ 20.15 10/1981
09/1988
3.61$ -3.96 2.74%
10Y -0.83 01/1950
12/1959
0.92$ 2.00 1.21$ 4.39 1.53$ 8.24 2.20$ 17.64 10/1981
09/1991
5.07$ 0.55 0.82%
15Y 0.07 01/1955
12/1969
1.01$ 2.45 1.43$ 4.28 1.87$ 8.51 3.40$ 14.59 10/1981
09/1996
7.71$ 2.33 0.00%
20Y 0.24 01/1950
12/1969
1.04$ 2.39 1.60$ 4.27 2.30$ 8.55 5.16$ 13.28 10/1981
09/2001
12.10$ 3.31 0.00%
30Y 1.28 05/1940
04/1970
1.46$ 2.49 2.08$ 4.10 3.33$ 8.51 11.60$ 11.72 10/1981
09/2011
27.81$ 4.72 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
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Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -38.41 11/2021
10/2022
0.61$ -7.49 0.92$ 2.80 1.02$ 12.78 1.12$ 63.46 04/1985
03/1986
1.63$ -13.91 38.31%
2Y -25.73 11/2020
10/2022
0.55$ -4.32 0.91$ 2.92 1.05$ 10.51 1.22$ 45.11 07/1984
06/1986
2.10$ -24.15 30.77%
3Y -21.18 10/2020
09/2023
0.48$ -3.08 0.91$ 3.08 1.09$ 9.23 1.30$ 26.19 09/1983
08/1986
2.00$ -21.18 29.31%
5Y -12.22 07/1915
06/1920
0.52$ -2.10 0.89$ 2.85 1.15$ 8.04 1.47$ 23.79 09/1981
08/1986
2.90$ -7.14 32.02%
7Y -8.20 06/1913
05/1920
0.54$ -2.32 0.84$ 3.12 1.24$ 7.59 1.66$ 15.92 10/1981
09/1988
2.81$ -7.21 31.31%
10Y -6.49 10/1971
09/1981
0.51$ -1.86 0.82$ 3.15 1.36$ 7.10 1.98$ 13.18 10/1981
09/1991
3.44$ -2.14 34.89%
15Y -4.99 10/1966
09/1981
0.46$ -1.40 0.80$ 2.67 1.48$ 6.46 2.55$ 10.64 10/1981
09/1996
4.55$ 0.04 32.41%
20Y -3.73 10/1961
09/1981
0.46$ -1.28 0.77$ 2.54 1.65$ 5.93 3.16$ 9.66 10/1981
09/2001
6.32$ 0.73 30.30%
30Y -2.63 10/1951
09/1981
0.44$ -0.77 0.79$ 2.40 2.03$ 5.06 4.39$ 8.46 10/1981
09/2011
11.42$ 2.13 19.88%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
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Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
1.63
60%
-1.44
20%
1.22
60%
-1.47
60%
-0.04
40%
0.93
80%
1.66
80%
-0.41
20%
-4.20
20%
-2.19
20%
2.59
80%
-0.64
20%
Best 7.7
2020
6.6
2020
6.4
2020
2.5
2021
6.8
2019
4.4
2021
4.4
2020
11.0
2019
0.8
2020
2.5
2021
7.1
2022
5.9
2018
Worst -3.9
2022
-5.7
2021
-5.4
2022
-9.4
2022
-3.0
2023
-1.3
2022
-2.5
2023
-5.0
2020
-8.2
2022
-6.0
2022
-0.4
2019
-3.2
2019
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1871 - Sep 2023
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Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
2.74
70%
-1.12
40%
1.00
60%
-1.00
50%
0.51
60%
0.87
70%
1.35
70%
0.57
40%
-2.78
20%
-1.15
30%
0.49
60%
-0.08
30%
Best 9.8
2015
6.6
2020
6.4
2020
2.5
2021
6.8
2019
6.9
2016
4.5
2015
11.0
2019
2.0
2015
2.8
2014
7.1
2022
5.9
2018
Worst -3.9
2022
-6.1
2015
-5.4
2022
-9.4
2022
-3.0
2023
-4.1
2015
-2.5
2023
-5.0
2020
-8.2
2022
-6.0
2022
-8.2
2016
-3.2
2019
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1871 - Sep 2023
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Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
0.30
64%
0.32
67%
0.38
69%
0.19
63%
0.51
66%
0.61
66%
0.14
57%
0.48
59%
0.32
65%
0.34
63%
0.81
74%
0.52
64%
Best 9.8
2015
12.6
1986
10.6
1986
13.5
1980
9.1
1985
6.9
2016
7.0
1984
11.0
2019
13.2
2011
7.8
1982
14.3
2008
13.6
2008
Worst -13.1
2009
-8.3
1980
-5.4
2022
-9.4
2022
-6.8
2013
-4.1
2015
-10.0
2003
-5.0
2020
-8.2
2022
-8.0
1979
-8.2
2016
-6.3
2009
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1871 - Sep 2023

Monthly Returns

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND (TLT) ETF
Monthly Returns Distribution
Data Source: 1 October 1993 - 30 September 2023 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 30 September 2023 (~153 years)
198 Positive Months (55%) - 162 Negative Months (45%)
1187 Positive Months (65%) - 646 Negative Months (35%)
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(Scroll down to see all data)
Investment Returns, up to December 2002, are simulated.
They have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets.

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