Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns

Data Source: from January 1871 to May 2023 (~152 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 May 2023
Live Update: Jun 02 2023
PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
0.23%
1 Day
Jun 02 2023
0.33%
Current Month
June 2023

The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio is a Medium Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 4 ETFs.

It's exposed for 25% on the Stock Market and for 25% on Commodities.

In the last 30 Years, the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio obtained a 6.41% compound annual return, with a 6.46% standard deviation.

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

25% Stocks
50% Fixed Income
25% Commodities

The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight (%) Ticker ETF Name Investment Themes
25.00
VTI
Vanguard Total Stock Market Equity, U.S., Large Cap
25.00
BIL
SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill Bond, U.S., Ultra Short-Term
25.00
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Bond, U.S., Long-Term
25.00
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust Commodity, Gold

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of May 31, 2023

The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Portfolio returns are calculated in USD, assuming: June 2023 return is calculated on the hypothesis of a newly built portfolio, with the starting asset allocation.
HARRY BROWNE PERMANENT PORTFOLIO
Consolidated returns as of 31 May 2023
Live Update: Jun 02 2023
Swipe left to see all data
    Chg (%) Return (%) Return (%) as of May 31, 2023
    1 Day Time ET(*) Jun 2023 1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~152Y)
Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio -0.23 0.33 -0.90 4.48 1.19 5.03 4.66 6.41 5.77
US Inflation Adjusted return -0.90 2.53 -2.50 1.17 1.93 3.80 3.58
Components
VTI
Vanguard Total Stock Market 1.65 Jun 02 2023 2.67 0.43 2.44 2.13 9.99 11.40 9.70 9.04
BIL
SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill 0.01 Jun 02 2023 0.07 0.38 2.15 3.16 1.33 0.77 2.20 3.99
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond -1.10 Jun 02 2023 -0.71 -3.01 1.50 -9.43 -1.20 1.31 5.54 4.84
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust -1.47 Jun 02 2023 -0.70 -1.34 10.62 6.53 8.17 3.13 5.37 2.91
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1871
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Apr 2023. Waiting for updates, inflation of May 2023 is set to 0%. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 3.79% , 5Y: 3.81% , 10Y: 2.68% , 30Y: 2.51%
Live update: World Markets and Indexes

In 2022, the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio granted a 1.13% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Portfolio Metrics as of May 31, 2023

Metrics of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio, updated as of 31 May 2023.

Portfolio metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
HARRY BROWNE PERMANENT PORTFOLIO
Portfolio Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 31 May 2023 (~152 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of May 31, 2023
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
(~152Y)
Portfolio Return (%) -0.90 3.70 4.48 1.19 1.27 5.03 4.66 6.51 6.41 5.77
US Inflation (%) 0.00 0.84 1.90 3.79 5.77 3.81 2.68 2.55 2.51 2.12
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) -0.90 2.84 2.53 -2.50 -4.25 1.17 1.93 3.87 3.80 3.58
Waiting for updates, inflation of May 2023 is temporarily set to 0%. Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 10.87 8.97 8.03 7.02 6.97 6.46 5.78
Sharpe Ratio -0.18 0.03 0.46 0.55 0.77 0.65 0.31
Sortino Ratio -0.27 0.04 0.67 0.79 1.07 0.91 0.46
MAXIMUM DRAWDOWN
Drawdown Depth (%) -7.87 -15.92 -15.92 -15.92 -15.92 -15.92 -30.61
Start (yyyy mm) 2022 06 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 1929 09
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 1932 05
Start to Bottom (# months) 4 9 9 9 9 9 33
Start to Recovery (# months) in progress
8
> 17
> 17
> 17
> 17
> 17
46
ROLLING PERIOD RETURNS - Annualized
Best Return (%) 46.69 22.66 17.20 15.81 11.96 10.48
Worst Return (%) -20.29 -10.10 -2.35 2.28 3.13 3.28
% Positive Periods 84% 98% 99% 100% 100% 100%
MONTHS
Positive 0 2 3 6 19 37 69 147 225 1174
Negative 1 1 3 6 17 23 51 93 135 655
% Positive 0% 67% 50% 50% 53% 62% 58% 61% 63% 64%
WITHDRAWAL RATES (WR)
Safe WR (%) 32.93 22.39 11.65 8.18 6.03 5.14
Perpetual WR (%) 0.00 1.16 1.89 3.73 3.66 3.45
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Maximum Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.
  • Rolling Returns: returns over a time frame (best, worst, % of positive returns).
  • Pos./Neg. Months: number of months with positive/negative return.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the original portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money (dollar amount withdrawal).
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year, while retaining the inflation adjusted portfolio balance (percentage withdrawal).

Talking about withdrawal rates, how would you manage your early retirement with the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio? Read more here

Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.

Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1.

If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.

Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS
Monthly correlations as of 31 May 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Asset
VTI
BIL
TLT
GLD
VTI
-
-0.06
0.58
0.34
BIL
-0.06
-
0.18
0.46
TLT
0.58
0.18
-
0.82
GLD
0.34
0.46
0.82
-
Asset
VTI
BIL
TLT
GLD
VTI
-
-0.17
0.06
0.18
BIL
-0.17
-
0.18
0.12
TLT
0.06
0.18
-
0.44
GLD
0.18
0.12
0.44
-
Asset
VTI
BIL
TLT
GLD
VTI
-
-0.13
-0.02
0.08
BIL
-0.13
-
0.10
0.14
TLT
-0.02
0.10
-
0.44
GLD
0.08
0.14
0.44
-
Asset
VTI
BIL
TLT
GLD
VTI
-
-0.03
-0.15
0.05
BIL
-0.03
-
0.06
0.00
TLT
-0.15
0.06
-
0.19
GLD
0.05
0.00
0.19
-
Asset
VTI
BIL
TLT
GLD
VTI
-
-0.05
0.07
0.02
BIL
-0.05
-
0.07
-0.01
TLT
0.07
0.07
-
0.07
GLD
0.02
-0.01
0.07
-

If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.

Readings that may interest you

Capital Growth as of May 31, 2023

An investment of 1000$, since June 1993, now would be worth 6447.96$, with a total return of 544.80% (6.41% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 3064.96$, with a net total return of 206.50% (3.80% annualized).
An investment of 1000$, since January 1871, now would be worth 5165885.16$, with a total return of 516488.52% (5.77% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 212402.35$, with a net total return of 21140.23% (3.58% annualized).

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

HARRY BROWNE PERMANENT PORTFOLIO
Drawdown periods
Updated to May 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months
-15.92% Jan 2022 Sep 2022 9 in progress 8 17
-12.63% Mar 2008 Oct 2008 8 Aug 2009 10 18
-6.98% Aug 2016 Dec 2016 5 Aug 2017 8 13
-6.86% Oct 2012 Jun 2013 9 Feb 2014 8 17
-6.73% Feb 2015 Dec 2015 11 Apr 2016 4 15
-5.43% Sep 2000 Mar 2001 7 Mar 2002 12 19
-5.34% Jul 1998 Aug 1998 2 Oct 1998 2 4
-4.43% Jan 2021 Mar 2021 3 May 2021 2 5
-4.25% Feb 2018 Oct 2018 9 Feb 2019 4 13
-4.20% Apr 2004 Apr 2004 1 Oct 2004 6 7
-4.02% Jun 2002 Jul 2002 2 Dec 2002 5 7
-3.63% Feb 1994 Apr 1994 3 Feb 1995 10 13
-3.54% May 1999 Aug 1999 4 Oct 1999 2 6
-3.30% Sep 2020 Oct 2020 2 Dec 2020 2 4
-3.07% Dec 2009 Jan 2010 2 Apr 2010 3 5
-2.73% Sep 2021 Sep 2021 1 Oct 2021 1 2
-2.64% Dec 1996 Mar 1997 4 May 1997 2 6
-2.62% Sep 2014 Sep 2014 1 Dec 2014 3 4
-2.58% Apr 2000 May 2000 2 Jun 2000 1 3
-2.34% Jun 2003 Jul 2003 2 Aug 2003 1 3
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months
-30.61% Sep 1929 May 1932 33 Jun 1933 13 46
-15.92% Jan 2022 Sep 2022 9 in progress 8 17
-14.17% Mar 1937 Mar 1938 13 Jul 1941 40 53
-12.63% Mar 2008 Oct 2008 8 Aug 2009 10 18
-11.68% Dec 1980 Mar 1982 16 Aug 1982 5 21
-11.38% Feb 1980 Mar 1980 2 Jun 1980 3 5
-11.15% Apr 1974 Sep 1974 6 Jan 1975 4 10
-10.91% May 1969 Jun 1970 14 Jan 1971 7 21
-7.00% Jul 1975 Sep 1975 3 Mar 1976 6 9
-6.98% Aug 2016 Dec 2016 5 Aug 2017 8 13
-6.86% Oct 2012 Jun 2013 9 Feb 2014 8 17
-6.85% Jul 1973 Nov 1973 5 Jan 1974 2 7
-6.73% Feb 2015 Dec 2015 11 Apr 2016 4 15
-6.64% Apr 1876 Jun 1877 15 Apr 1878 10 25
-6.32% Oct 1906 Nov 1907 14 May 1908 6 20
-6.20% Aug 1941 Apr 1942 9 Dec 1942 8 17
-6.13% Feb 1893 Aug 1893 7 Sep 1894 13 20
-5.78% Sep 1987 Nov 1987 3 Jan 1989 14 17
-5.77% Jun 1946 Nov 1946 6 May 1948 18 24
-5.74% Sep 1933 Oct 1933 2 Jan 1934 3 5

Rolling Returns ( more details)

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

HARRY BROWNE PERMANENT PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Data Source: from January 1871 to May 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period		 Annualized Return (%) Negative
Periods
Average Latest Best Worst
1 Year
 5.98 1.19 46.69
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933 		-20.29
Jul 1931 - Jun 1932 		15.95%
2 Years
 5.92 -1.98 30.12
Jul 1978 - Jun 1980 		-14.89
Jun 1930 - May 1932 		6.04%
3 Years
 5.90 1.27 22.66
Jul 1977 - Jun 1980 		-10.10
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932 		1.84%
5 Years
 5.87 5.03 17.20
Oct 1975 - Sep 1980 		-2.35
Jun 1927 - May 1932 		0.96%
7 Years
 5.87 4.92 15.71
Feb 1973 - Jan 1980 		0.58
Jul 1925 - Jun 1932 		0.00%
10 Years
 5.89 4.66 15.81
Jul 1970 - Jun 1980 		2.28
Jun 1922 - May 1932 		0.00%
15 Years
 5.90 5.58 13.26
Sep 1971 - Aug 1986 		2.64
Sep 1881 - Aug 1896 		0.00%
20 Years
 5.89 6.51 11.96
Jul 1970 - Jun 1990 		3.13
Jul 1901 - Jun 1921 		0.00%
30 Years
 5.93 6.41 10.48
Jul 1970 - Jun 2000 		3.28
Jun 1902 - May 1932 		0.00%
Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Considering all 10-year rolling periods, is there a relationship between past and future returns, at a given date?

In the following chart, we show how past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis) are related.

Neighboring data is aggregated and occurrences are indicated. It is possible to zoom by clicking or drawing the desired area

HARRY BROWNE PERMANENT PORTFOLIO
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Updated to May 2023

The annualized return of the last 10 years has been 4.66% (updated at May 31, 2023).

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.

For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
1.30
60%
-0.93
40%
0.65
40%
0.75
80%
0.24
60%
0.42
40%
1.95
100%
0.63
80%
-2.21
0%
0.04
60%
1.58
100%
0.82
80%
 Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100
101.30
100.36
101.01
101.77
102.01
102.45
104.44
105.11
102.78
102.82
104.44
105.30
Best 5.2
2023 		0.5
2022 		4.0
2023 		4.8
2020 		1.9
2021 		4.1
2019 		5.4
2020 		4.2
2019 		-0.8
2018 		2.8
2021 		5.0
2022 		2.7
2020
Worst -2.9
2022 		-3.2
2023 		-1.3
2020 		-4.9
2022 		-1.5
2022 		-2.6
2022 		0.0
2018 		-2.6
2022 		-4.7
2022 		-2.2
2018 		0.0
2021 		-1.0
2022
Monthly Seasonality over the period Jun 2018 - May 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
1.68
80%
0.00
50%
0.36
40%
0.56
70%
0.20
60%
0.31
40%
1.39
80%
0.53
60%
-1.50
10%
0.28
70%
0.45
70%
0.55
60%
 Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100
101.68
101.68
102.05
102.61
102.82
103.14
104.57
105.13
103.55
103.84
104.30
104.88
Best 5.2
2023 		3.6
2016 		4.0
2023 		4.8
2020 		1.9
2021 		4.2
2016 		5.4
2020 		4.2
2019 		0.3
2013 		2.8
2021 		5.0
2022 		2.7
2020
Worst -2.9
2022 		-3.2
2023 		-1.3
2020 		-4.9
2022 		-1.5
2022 		-3.5
2013 		-1.3
2014 		-2.6
2022 		-4.7
2022 		-2.5
2016 		-3.3
2016 		-1.0
2022
Monthly Seasonality over the period Jun 2013 - May 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
0.80
67%
0.36
61%
0.28
64%
0.54
67%
0.37
59%
0.39
61%
0.51
63%
0.57
66%
0.27
61%
0.29
60%
0.67
66%
0.74
74%
 Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100
100.80
101.17
101.45
102.00
102.38
102.78
103.30
103.89
104.17
104.47
105.17
105.94
Best 14.8
1933 		6.5
1974 		4.8
1986 		8.5
1933 		8.2
1973 		7.7
1980 		6.7
1932 		9.6
1982 		7.7
1979 		7.6
1974 		5.6
2008 		9.3
1979
Worst -4.6
1981 		-4.0
1933 		-9.3
1980 		-4.9
2022 		-6.1
1940 		-4.2
1930 		-2.6
1933 		-4.1
1998 		-7.2
1931 		-8.5
2008 		-5.3
1978 		-3.2
1931
Monthly Seasonality over the period Jan 1871 - May 2023

Monthly/Yearly Returns

Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio data source starts from January 1871: let's focus on monthly and yearly returns.

We are providing two different views:
  • Histogram: it shows the distribution of the returns recorded so far
  • Plain Table: it shows the detailed monthly and yearly returns
MONTHLY RETURNS HISTOGRAM
Jan 1871 - May 2023
1174 Positive Months (64%) - 655 Negative Months (36%)
MONTHLY RETURNS TABLE
Jan 1871 - May 2023
(Scroll down to see all data)
Swipe left to see all data
Yearly Return(%)
Monthly Return(%)
Year Total Infl.Adj Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2023
 +5.57 +3.29 5.2 -3.2 4.0 0.7 -0.9
2022
 -12.53 -17.83 -2.9 0.5 -0.2 -4.9 -1.5 -2.6 1.9 -2.6 -4.7 0.1 5.0 -1.0
2021
 +4.21 -2.65 -1.8 -2.2 -0.5 2.8 1.9 -0.1 1.9 0.7 -2.7 2.8 0.0 1.4
2020
 +16.10 +14.54 3.1 -0.3 -1.3 4.8 1.3 1.3 5.4 0.1 -1.8 -1.5 1.7 2.7
2019
 +16.17 +13.57 3.0 0.5 1.4 0.5 0.3 4.1 0.5 4.2 -1.1 0.9 0.1 0.9
2018
 -1.76 -3.60 1.3 -2.2 0.4 -0.6 0.9 -0.5 0.0 0.8 -0.8 -2.2 1.1 0.2
2017
 +10.97 +8.68 2.0 2.1 -0.3 1.1 0.7 -0.1 0.9 2.0 -0.8 0.4 1.1 1.3
2016
 +5.54 +3.39 1.3 3.6 1.3 1.4 -1.1 4.2 2.0 -1.1 -0.2 -2.5 -3.3 -0.1
2015
 -3.06 -3.76 3.9 -1.8 -0.6 -0.8 -0.1 -1.8 -0.1 -0.9 -0.7 2.4 -1.7 -0.7
2014
 +9.40 +8.58 1.6 2.9 -0.5 0.7 0.5 2.1 -1.3 2.4 -2.6 0.7 1.4 1.2
2013
 -2.08 -3.53 0.4 -0.6 1.2 -0.2 -2.4 -3.5 2.6 -0.2 0.3 1.6 -0.9 -0.2
2012
 +6.41 +4.59 4.0 -0.3 -0.5 0.9 -1.2 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.2 -1.4 0.4 -0.9
2011
 +11.11 +7.92 -1.9 2.8 0.5 3.5 0.1 -1.7 2.6 4.2 -1.4 2.7 0.9 -1.7
2010
 +13.92 +12.25 -0.5 1.6 0.9 2.8 0.0 0.7 -0.1 2.6 2.6 0.7 0.3 1.5
2009
 +7.85 +4.99 -3.8 -2.5 2.0 0.0 3.3 -1.2 2.8 1.5 3.2 -0.3 5.4 -2.6
2008
 +0.87 +0.77 1.8 0.8 -1.3 -0.7 0.1 -0.1 -0.6 -1.5 -0.6 -8.5 5.6 6.5
2007
 +12.69 +8.28 1.0 1.2 -0.3 1.9 -0.1 -1.1 0.6 1.2 3.8 2.8 -0.2 1.6
2006
 +10.94 +8.19 3.0 0.1 0.5 3.0 -1.1 -1.0 1.4 1.0 -0.2 1.5 3.1 -0.7
2005
 +8.91 +5.32 -0.6 0.9 -0.9 0.8 0.8 1.8 -0.1 1.0 1.1 -1.3 2.9 2.1
2004
 +6.83 +3.46 0.1 0.7 1.8 -4.2 0.6 1.0 -0.8 2.1 1.2 1.5 2.2 0.6
2003
 +13.32 +11.23 0.6 -1.0 -1.1 2.5 4.9 -1.1 -1.3 2.4 1.9 0.8 1.3 2.6
2002
 +5.85 +3.39 0.6 1.2 0.3 0.4 1.4 -1.8 -2.2 2.1 0.1 0.0 1.1 2.6
2001
 -0.52 -2.04 0.3 -1.7 -2.5 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.6 -0.1 0.0
2000
 +2.40 -0.96 -1.2 2.4 0.9 -1.5 -1.1 3.2 -0.9 2.5 -1.6 -0.7 -1.0 1.7
1999
 +5.17 +2.42 1.0 -1.9 0.3 2.0 -2.4 0.6 -1.4 -0.3 3.6 1.8 0.2 1.8
1998
 +10.09 +8.34 2.0 1.1 1.8 1.3 -1.6 1.8 -1.3 -4.1 4.3 1.3 2.1 1.2
1997
 +7.19 +5.39 -0.3 0.9 -2.3 1.3 2.6 1.0 3.1 -1.7 2.9 -1.5 0.5 0.6
1996
 +5.08 +1.70 2.0 -1.0 -0.3 0.0 0.7 -0.2 -1.1 0.7 1.7 1.4 2.2 -0.9
1995
 +18.11 +15.19 0.8 1.9 2.0 1.0 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.9 1.7 0.5 2.2 1.2
1994
 -1.37 -3.94 0.5 -1.3 -1.5 -0.9 0.9 -0.8 1.2 1.1 -0.5 -0.3 -0.8 0.8
1993
 +12.00 +9.00 0.8 0.8 1.5 0.8 2.6 1.3 2.0 0.0 -0.9 1.6 -0.9 2.1
1992
 +3.57 +0.65 -0.7 0.5 -1.6 0.0 0.9 0.3 3.1 -1.5 1.3 -0.8 0.9 1.1
1991
 +11.72 +8.39 0.3 1.8 0.5 0.7 1.4 -0.9 1.5 0.8 1.0 0.7 -0.5 3.8
1990
 +1.11 -4.71 -1.5 0.0 -1.8 -1.3 3.1 -0.1 1.4 -2.2 0.6 -1.4 3.1 1.5
1989
 +12.90 +7.88 1.3 -1.2 0.7 1.8 1.1 2.3 2.5 -0.4 0.5 0.8 2.7 0.1
1988
 +4.39 -0.03 1.0 0.1 0.7 -0.3 0.0 1.5 -0.5 -1.0 0.6 2.1 -0.3 0.4
1987
 +7.42 +2.86 4.4 2.0 1.3 0.5 -0.2 1.4 2.1 0.4 -0.9 -4.8 -0.1 1.6
1986
 +17.64 +16.36 2.2 4.0 4.8 0.1 0.5 2.5 -1.3 4.6 -0.5 -0.1 0.5 -0.8
1985
 +20.47 +16.06 3.3 -2.0 4.1 0.1 3.3 1.4 0.5 1.1 -1.5 2.2 3.3 3.2
1984
 +2.22 -1.66 -0.3 0.1 -0.4 -0.9 -2.0 0.6 -0.7 4.3 0.7 1.3 0.0 -0.2
1983
 +3.46 -0.32 2.5 -2.7 1.3 3.9 -0.1 0.3 -1.8 -0.2 1.4 -2.3 2.7 -1.4
1982
 +23.27 +18.72 -1.3 -2.1 -2.2 5.0 -2.4 -1.5 2.8 9.6 1.6 6.7 3.2 2.6
1981
 -5.34 -13.10 -4.6 -1.2 3.5 -2.9 1.9 -2.4 -1.5 -1.4 -1.5 3.5 4.0 -2.4
1980
 +13.65 +1.01 6.8 -2.3 -9.3 5.9 3.9 7.7 -1.4 0.8 2.0 -1.5 2.8 -1.3
1979
 +39.77 +23.37 2.7 1.0 1.0 0.6 3.4 2.4 2.2 3.5 7.7 -4.5 5.1 9.3
1978
 +12.78 +3.45 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.5 2.6 -0.4 4.4 2.8 0.9 0.3 -5.3 5.0
1977
 +6.43 -0.26 -2.0 1.6 1.2 0.1 -0.7 1.8 -0.1 0.5 1.6 0.3 1.1 0.9
1976
 +11.22 +6.06 1.5 1.2 0.7 -0.3 -1.1 1.6 -1.8 -1.0 3.4 0.9 2.2 3.4
1975
 +6.98 +0.04 2.8 3.0 -0.1 -0.2 2.3 2.2 -1.9 -1.7 -3.6 3.1 0.4 0.7
1974
 +12.43 +0.08 5.0 6.5 1.0 -1.9 -3.0 -3.1 1.0 -2.1 -2.5 7.6 3.6 0.4
1973
 +15.65 +6.38 -0.2 6.5 1.7 -0.5 8.2 2.7 -2.1 -4.0 0.8 -0.4 -1.3 3.9
1972
 +18.84 +14.92 2.6 1.7 0.4 1.0 6.2 2.2 2.0 -0.1 -1.4 0.8 1.2 0.9
1971
 +12.86 +9.29 2.6 1.0 2.5 0.8 -0.5 -0.6 0.5 1.4 1.6 -0.5 0.9 2.5
1970
 +7.89 +2.20 -1.5 3.2 0.2 -2.9 -1.6 -0.3 2.3 1.4 1.8 0.7 3.2 1.4
1969
 -6.38 -11.84 0.4 -0.9 1.2 1.3 -0.7 -2.5 -0.9 0.6 -1.7 1.9 -3.7 -1.4
1968
 +9.27 +4.34 0.2 -0.6 0.0 4.9 2.3 0.2 -1.1 2.1 -0.1 -0.2 1.5 -0.2
1967
 +6.11 +2.98 2.5 -0.1 1.7 0.8 -1.3 -0.1 1.6 0.7 0.1 -1.2 0.1 1.1
1966
 -0.04 -3.39 0.3 -0.8 0.3 0.6 -1.1 -0.5 -0.2 -2.1 0.8 1.4 0.1 1.2
1965
 +4.59 +2.62 1.2 0.1 -0.1 1.1 0.0 -0.9 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 -0.1 0.2
1964
 +6.00 +4.98 1.0 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 -0.3 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.3
1963
 +6.05 +4.33 1.3 -0.7 1.0 1.4 0.5 -0.5 0.1 1.4 -0.2 0.9 0.0 0.7
1962
 -0.23 -1.54 -0.9 0.8 0.3 -1.3 -1.9 -1.8 1.4 0.7 -0.8 0.3 2.3 0.7
1961
 +6.50 +5.79 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.8 -1.0 1.0 0.5 -0.3 1.1 1.2 0.0
1960
 +5.64 +4.22 -0.6 1.0 0.5 -0.2 0.8 1.2 0.2 1.1 -1.1 0.0 1.1 1.5
1959
 +2.72 +0.97 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.0 -0.3 -1.5 0.8 0.5 0.6
1958
 +9.97 +8.06 1.5 -0.3 1.1 1.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 -0.2 1.1 0.8 1.0 1.6
1957
 +0.57 -2.26 -0.7 -0.2 0.6 1.0 1.0 -0.1 0.3 -1.1 -1.2 -0.5 1.2 0.4
1956
 +1.35 -1.59 -0.7 1.1 1.6 -0.3 -1.3 1.3 1.3 -1.3 -1.1 0.4 -0.4 0.9
1955
 +6.24 +5.85 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.8 0.0 2.2 1.5 -0.3 0.4 -0.7 2.2 -0.1
1954
 +14.12 +14.98 1.6 0.3 1.2 1.7 0.9 0.2 2.0 -0.9 2.6 -0.5 2.6 1.8
1953
 -0.87 -1.61 -2.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.3 -0.3 1.3 -1.2 0.5 2.0 0.4 0.5
1952
 +3.37 +2.59 -0.3 -0.9 1.3 -0.8 0.8 1.2 0.5 -0.5 -0.7 0.4 1.4 1.0
1951
 +4.37 -1.54 1.6 0.1 -0.7 1.1 -1.2 -0.6 2.1 1.6 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 1.3
1950
 +7.47 +1.45 0.3 0.4 0.3 1.3 1.3 -1.5 0.5 1.1 1.7 0.2 0.2 1.6
1949
 +6.13 +8.38 -0.5 -0.7 1.1 -0.2 -0.6 0.4 1.9 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.3 1.6
1948
 +1.16 -1.78 -1.4 -1.0 2.0 0.8 2.4 0.0 -1.4 0.3 -0.6 1.8 -2.7 1.0
1947
 +3.61 -4.80 3.9 -0.2 -0.3 -0.9 -0.1 1.3 1.0 -0.6 -0.3 0.4 -0.8 0.3
1946
 -0.66 -15.91 2.7 -1.6 1.4 0.8 0.7 -0.8 -0.6 -1.8 -2.4 0.1 -0.3 1.4
1945
 +12.40 +9.93 1.6 1.9 -0.9 2.7 0.5 0.2 -0.4 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.3 0.3
1944
 +5.95 +3.57 0.4 0.2 0.6 -0.1 1.2 1.5 -0.4 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.1
1943
 +8.33 +5.21 2.8 1.5 1.6 0.3 1.6 0.8 -1.4 0.5 0.9 -0.2 -2.1 1.8
1942
 +5.04 -3.66 0.5 -0.8 -1.2 -1.0 1.7 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.8 1.9 -0.3 1.6
1941
 -1.49 -10.38 -0.3 -0.4 0.6 -1.2 0.2 1.7 1.8 -0.2 -0.1 -1.4 -0.9 -1.3
1940
 -0.01 -0.72 -1.0 0.4 0.7 0.0 -6.1 2.2 1.1 0.9 0.7 1.3 -0.3 0.3
1939
 +1.75 +1.75 -1.5 1.1 -2.9 0.3 1.9 -1.3 2.6 -1.7 2.8 0.4 -0.7 1.0
1938
 +8.45 +11.55 0.5 1.8 -6.6 3.4 -0.8 5.8 2.1 -0.6 0.4 2.5 -1.0 1.3
1937
 -8.65 -11.19 1.2 0.5 -0.7 -2.2 0.0 -1.2 2.7 -1.4 -3.3 -2.1 -1.7 -0.8
1936
 +10.39 +8.82 1.9 0.8 1.0 -1.8 1.4 1.0 2.1 0.6 0.2 2.4 0.6 0.0
1935
 +12.79 +9.52 -0.5 -0.7 -0.6 2.4 1.0 1.9 2.4 0.4 0.8 2.5 1.3 1.4
1934
 +5.72 +4.14 5.2 -0.3 0.6 -0.3 -1.6 0.9 -2.4 1.2 -0.2 0.0 2.2 0.3
1933
 +28.60 +27.63 14.8 -4.0 0.6 8.5 4.5 4.1 -2.6 3.5 -3.4 -2.5 2.6 0.7
1932
 +2.17 +13.87 -1.0 2.0 -2.3 -3.8 -4.3 0.3 6.7 8.3 -0.5 -3.2 -1.0 1.7
1931
 -12.64 -3.67 1.4 2.9 -1.8 -2.5 -3.1 3.3 -1.8 0.3 -7.2 0.8 -1.8 -3.2
1930
 -4.39 +2.14 1.7 0.8 2.6 -0.2 -0.1 -4.2 1.1 0.4 -3.0 -1.7 -0.2 -1.4
1929
 -0.83 -1.41 1.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.8 -1.0 3.0 1.5 2.8 -1.3 -5.6 -2.6 0.7
1928
 +10.25 +11.54 -0.1 -0.4 2.8 0.9 0.4 -1.1 0.2 2.0 0.8 0.5 3.9 0.1
1927
 +11.58 +14.16 -0.2 1.5 0.6 0.7 1.7 -0.1 1.9 1.6 1.2 -1.1 2.3 0.9
1926
 +5.78 +6.97 0.3 -0.7 -1.1 0.8 0.6 1.3 0.7 1.4 0.9 -0.5 1.0 0.9
1925
 +8.98 +5.33 0.7 0.5 -1.5 1.0 1.6 0.5 1.1 0.2 0.9 1.9 0.2 1.6
1924
 +10.18 +10.18 1.2 -0.1 -0.3 0.3 0.7 1.6 1.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 2.1 1.7
1923
 +3.65 +1.25 0.4 1.9 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -1.5 0.8 0.7 -0.4 0.2 1.7 1.1
1922
 +9.97 +12.58 0.6 1.0 1.4 2.1 1.8 -0.8 0.9 2.4 -0.2 0.8 -1.2 0.9
1921
 +8.74 +21.94 1.8 0.1 -0.2 1.0 -0.1 -1.5 1.1 0.0 1.3 1.5 2.4 1.1
1920
 -1.56 -4.09 -0.3 -1.6 2.7 -1.7 -1.0 0.4 -0.1 0.7 0.8 1.4 -1.6 -1.1
1919
 +6.55 -6.98 -0.1 1.0 0.4 1.7 2.6 -0.6 1.9 -2.1 0.9 2.4 -1.6 0.0
1918
 +7.63 -10.64 2.1 0.9 -0.7 0.6 0.7 1.1 0.1 0.9 -0.3 1.6 0.0 0.3
1917
 -4.88 -19.46 -0.4 -0.9 0.5 -0.1 -0.9 0.7 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.9 -1.4 -0.6
1916
 +4.56 -7.16 -0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.9 0.3 -0.2 0.6 1.4 1.1 0.8 -0.7
1915
 +10.27 +8.13 0.7 -0.1 1.1 2.2 -0.5 0.4 -0.2 1.6 1.1 1.7 1.3 0.5
1914
 +1.02 +0.02 1.6 0.7 -0.3 -0.5 0.4 0.1 -1.2 -1.8 0.3 -0.9 1.2 1.7
1913
 +0.91 -2.12 0.2 -0.4 -0.1 0.3 -0.1 -0.8 0.1 0.9 0.5 -0.5 0.1 0.6
1912
 +3.57 -3.48 0.3 0.1 1.0 1.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.8
1911
 +2.86 +5.03 0.9 0.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.1 -1.2 -1.2 0.4 1.2 0.3
1910
 +0.96 +9.28 -0.4 -0.5 0.8 -0.2 -0.1 -0.7 -0.8 0.9 0.6 1.4 0.3 -0.4
1909
 +5.56 -4.49 0.3 -0.5 0.6 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.4 -0.2 0.5
1908
 +13.65 +9.99 1.4 -0.6 1.8 2.1 1.9 -0.1 1.3 1.4 -0.2 0.6 2.3 1.0
1907
 -5.24 -3.18 -0.5 -0.3 -1.7 0.6 -0.5 -0.4 1.3 -1.5 0.0 -1.9 -1.3 0.8
1906
 +1.58 -3.75 1.0 -0.3 -0.5 0.0 -0.9 0.3 -0.6 2.0 1.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2
1905
 +6.99 +7.00 0.8 1.4 1.4 -0.1 -1.2 0.7 1.1 1.3 0.5 0.6 -0.2 0.5
1904
 +10.35 +5.41 0.7 -0.6 0.3 1.0 -0.3 0.5 1.3 1.0 1.6 1.9 1.7 0.6
1903
 -2.87 +2.78 1.4 0.1 -0.6 -1.2 -0.1 -1.3 -0.8 -0.9 -0.2 -0.5 0.1 1.1
1902
 +3.72 -3.18 0.9 0.6 0.4 1.2 0.2 -0.5 0.3 1.1 1.2 -0.4 -0.9 -0.4
1901
 +6.40 +1.34 2.5 0.7 0.9 2.6 -1.6 3.0 -2.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.7 -0.4
1900
 +7.28 +11.35 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.3 -0.6 -0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 -0.2 1.7 2.6
1899
 +2.46 -12.31 2.1 0.8 0.4 0.5 -1.2 -0.4 0.8 0.7 -0.3 -0.1 0.6 -1.4
1898
 +9.71 +8.10 1.1 -0.2 -1.6 -0.4 2.4 1.8 1.1 1.5 0.4 -0.1 1.2 2.3
1897
 +7.76 +7.76 0.7 0.1 0.4 -0.4 0.1 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.5 -0.4 -0.6 1.0
1896
 +3.16 +4.70 -0.8 1.2 0.2 0.8 0.0 -0.1 -1.8 -1.6 2.2 1.1 2.5 -0.6
1895
 +2.81 -0.07 -0.6 1.0 0.3 1.5 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 -1.2 -0.1 -1.5
1894
 +3.47 +10.86 -0.5 0.9 1.1 0.7 -0.7 0.1 -0.2 1.3 0.8 -0.6 0.5 0.1
1893
 -2.22 +5.70 0.5 -0.4 -0.5 0.2 -2.1 -1.3 -2.1 -0.1 2.0 0.8 1.0 -0.2
1892
 +3.62 +2.39 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.6 -0.6 0.8 0.2 -0.1
1891
 +6.97 +12.38 1.2 0.6 -0.1 1.2 0.2 -0.3 -1.1 1.1 2.7 0.0 -0.1 1.3
1890
 -0.21 -1.46 0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.8 1.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 -1.1 -1.4 -0.4
1889
 +4.74 +11.20 0.6 0.9 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.8 -0.4 0.6 1.0 -0.3 0.1 0.2
1888
 +3.54 +3.55 0.5 0.4 -1.0 0.4 1.0 -0.3 0.9 0.9 1.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1
1887
 +1.07 -4.78 -0.2 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.7 -0.5 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 1.0 -0.1
1886
 +5.01 +10.13 0.1 1.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 1.4 0.5 0.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 -0.4
1885
 +10.08 +11.43 -0.4 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.9 0.1 1.9 2.1 0.3
1884
 -0.61 +10.80 -0.5 1.0 0.4 -0.8 -2.3 -0.8 0.4 1.9 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 0.5
1883
 +0.77 +9.06 -0.2 -0.4 0.6 0.7 -0.4 0.5 -0.4 -0.9 0.7 -0.4 0.8 0.1
1882
 +3.35 +5.31 -0.2 -0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 1.5 1.1 0.5 -0.6 -0.7 0.7
1881
 +2.94 -3.84 1.7 0.1 0.5 0.2 1.7 0.6 -1.2 -0.7 0.5 -0.5 0.4 -0.3
1880
 +9.92 +12.13 1.2 1.3 0.9 -0.3 -1.6 0.6 1.2 1.5 0.1 0.7 2.3 1.6
1879
 +14.82 -3.17 1.0 1.2 -0.2 1.2 2.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 1.5 3.4 2.1 0.3
1878
 +6.08 +23.33 -0.2 0.0 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.2 1.0 0.0 0.4 0.3
1877
 +1.31 +14.53 -1.4 -1.1 -0.9 -0.9 0.9 -1.4 1.4 1.8 1.3 1.0 0.3 0.3
1876
 -1.26 +0.48 -0.6 1.1 0.4 -0.6 -0.4 0.6 -0.3 -1.0 -1.3 0.2 0.2 0.3
1875
 +6.22 +11.76 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.2 -0.1 0.3 -0.4 0.7 0.2 0.3 1.0 0.7
1874
 +5.61 +11.77 1.7 1.6 0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.3 -0.5 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.8 0.7
1873
 +1.85 +8.21 -0.3 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.9 0.5 -0.2 0.4 -2.0 -2.2 -0.4 3.8
1872
 +6.24 +3.86 0.8 0.3 1.2 1.6 0.8 0.3 -0.5 0.0 -0.4 0.7 0.3 1.1
1871
 +6.83 +5.23 -0.3 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.3 0.3 -0.5 0.7 0.9 -1.2 0.7 1.1

Portofolio Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.

In particular, it has been used:

  • VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2001
  • BIL - SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
  • TLT - iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2002
  • GLD - SPDR Gold Trust: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004

Portfolio efficiency

Compared to the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio, the following portfolios granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.

Swipe left to see all data
30 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Author Return▾ Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Desert Portfolio Gyroscopic Investing +6.48 5.42 -14.72 30 60 10
Permanent Portfolio Harry Browne +6.41 6.46 -15.92 25 50 25

The following portfolios share asset allocation strategy and/or similar asset weights.

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5 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Author Return▾ Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin Harry Browne +6.36 8.74 -16.88 25 50 25
Simplified Permanent Portfolio 2x Leveraged +6.22 15.96 -31.96 25 50 25
All Weather Portfolio 2x Leveraged Ray Dalio +5.88 20.04 -36.33 37.5 55 7.5
All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin Ray Dalio +5.31 10.10 -21.57 30 55 15
Simplified Permanent Portfolio +5.16 8.17 -16.43 25 50 25
Permanent Portfolio Harry Browne +5.03 8.03 -15.92 25 50 25
All Weather Portfolio Ray Dalio +3.99 9.33 -20.19 30 55 15

Here's a list containing the Best Classic Portfolios, with the highest returns over 30 Years and Medium Risk categorization.

Swipe left to see all data
30 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Author Return▾ Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Couch Potato Scott Burns +7.88 8.66 -27.04 50 50 0
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Momentum +7.77 6.87 -21.11 40 60 0
Robo Advisor 50 Betterment +7.29 9.24 -30.72 49.9 50.1 0
All Weather Portfolio Ray Dalio +7.19 7.21 -20.19 30 55 15
Global Market Portfolio Credit Suisse +6.96 8.14 -25.90 45 55 0