Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns

Data Source: from January 1871 to November 2023 (~153 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 November 2023
Live Update: Dec 11 2023, 10:00AM Eastern Time
PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
0.37%
1 Day
Dec 11 2023, 10:00AM Eastern Time
0.43%
Current Month
December 2023

The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio is a Medium Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 4 ETFs.

It's exposed for 25% on the Stock Market and for 25% on Commodities.

In the last 30 Years, the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio obtained a 6.37% compound annual return, with a 6.58% standard deviation.

Table of contents

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

25% Stocks
50% Fixed Income
25% Commodities

The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight (%) Ticker Currency ETF Name Investment Themes
25.00
VTI
USD Vanguard Total Stock Market Equity, U.S., Large Cap
25.00
BIL
USD SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill Bond, U.S., Ultra Short-Term
25.00
TLT
USD iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Bond, U.S., Long-Term
25.00
GLD
USD SPDR Gold Trust Commodity, Gold

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Nov 30, 2023

The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming: December 2023 return is calculated on the hypothesis of a newly built portfolio, with the starting asset allocation.
HARRY BROWNE PERMANENT PORTFOLIO
Consolidated returns as of 30 November 2023
Live Update: Dec 11 2023, 10:00AM Eastern Time
Swipe left to see all data
  Chg (%) Return (%) Return (%) as of Nov 30, 2023
  1 Day Time ET(*) Dec 2023 1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~153Y)
Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio -0.37 0.43 5.41 1.78 6.34 5.76 4.86 6.37 5.76
US Inflation Adjusted return 5.41 0.61 2.90 1.63 1.99 3.75 3.57
Components
VTI
USD Vanguard Total Stock Market 0.02 10:00AM, Dec 11 2023 1.17 9.42 10.04 12.72 11.71 11.16 9.90 9.08
BIL
USD SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill 0.01 09:59AM, Dec 11 2023 0.13 0.47 2.67 4.88 1.67 1.05 2.24 3.99
TLT
USD iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond -0.71 10:00AM, Dec 11 2023 2.84 9.92 -9.50 -8.15 -2.46 1.07 4.92 4.76
GLD
USD SPDR Gold Trust -0.80 10:00AM, Dec 11 2023 -2.43 2.53 3.53 14.53 10.31 4.57 5.55 2.93
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1871
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Oct 2023. Waiting for updates, inflation of Nov 2023 is set to 0%. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 3.35% , 5Y: 4.07% , 10Y: 2.82% , 30Y: 2.52%

In 2022, the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio granted a 1.13% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Capital Growth as of Nov 30, 2023

An investment of 1$, since December 1993, now would be worth 6.37$, with a total return of 537.35% (6.37% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 3.02$, with a net total return of 202.03% (3.75% annualized).
An investment of 1$, since January 1871, now would be worth 5257.92$, with a total return of 525691.64% (5.76% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 213.16$, with a net total return of 21215.93% (3.57% annualized).

Portfolio Metrics as of Nov 30, 2023

Metrics of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio, updated as of 30 November 2023.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
HARRY BROWNE PERMANENT PORTFOLIO
Advanced Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 30 November 2023 (~153 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of Nov 30, 2023
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
(~153Y)
Investment Return (%) 5.41 0.91 1.78 6.34 0.19 5.76 4.86 6.39 6.37 5.76
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) details 5.41 0.70 0.61 2.90 -5.25 1.63 1.99 3.71 3.75 3.57
US Inflation (%) 0.00 0.21 1.17 3.35 5.74 4.07 2.82 2.59 2.52 2.12
Waiting for updates, inflation of Nov 2023 is temporarily set to 0%. Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -5.68 -15.92 -15.92 -15.92 -15.92 -15.92 -30.61
Start to Recovery (# months) details 4* 23* 23* 23* 23* 23* 46
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 1929 09
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 9 9 9 9 9 33
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 1932 05
Bottom to End (# months) 1 14 14 14 14 14 13
End (yyyy mm) - - - - - - 1933 06
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
-14.17
Start to Recovery (# months) details 53
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 1937 03
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 9 9 9 9 9 13
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 1938 03
Bottom to End (# months) 1 14 14 14 14 14 40
End (yyyy mm) - - - - - - 1941 07
Longest negative period (# months) details 9 35 40 40 40 40 80
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 02 2020 12 2020 07 2020 07 2020 07 2020 07 1925 11
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 1932 06
Annualized Return (%) -4.05 -1.60 -0.31 -0.31 -0.31 -0.31 0.00
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -6.31 -23.32 -23.32 -23.32 -23.32 -23.32 -45.48
Start to Recovery (# months) details 4* 35* 35* 35* 35* 35* 182
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2021 01 2021 01 2021 01 2021 01 2021 01 1911 07
Start to Bottom (# months) 2 22 22 22 22 22 108
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 09 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10 1920 06
Bottom to End (# months) 2 13 13 13 13 13 74
End (yyyy mm) - - - - - - 1926 08
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -3.72
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
Start to Recovery (# months) details 6
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 02 2021 01 2021 01 2021 01 2021 01 2021 01 1911 07
Start to Bottom (# months) 1 22 22 22 22 22 108
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 02 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10 1920 06
Bottom to End (# months) 5 13 13 13 13 13 74
End (yyyy mm) 2023 07 - - - - - 1926 08
Longest negative period (# months) details 11 36* 57 93 93 93 341
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2022 12 2020 12 2019 02 2015 02 2015 02 2015 02 1892 02
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2023 11 2023 10 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10 1920 06
Annualized Return (%) -2.59 -5.25 -0.10 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.01
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Standard Deviation (%) 10.16 9.21 8.53 7.22 7.11 6.58 5.80
Sharpe Ratio 0.14 -0.19 0.48 0.53 0.72 0.63 0.31
Sortino Ratio 0.22 -0.27 0.69 0.76 1.01 0.88 0.45
Ulcer Index 2.46 7.50 5.87 4.68 3.75 3.22 3.54
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.62 0.02 0.68 0.67 0.90 0.97 0.99
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 1.12 0.01 0.36 0.31 0.40 0.40 0.19
% Positive Months details 50% 50% 61% 57% 60% 62% 64%
Positive Months 6 18 37 69 146 225 1177
Negative Months 6 18 23 51 94 135 658
LONG TERM RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 4.86 8.43 9.82 15.81
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 3.32 3.32 2.28
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 1.99 6.19 7.15 9.44
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 0.78 0.78 -4.49
ROLLING PERIOD RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Over the latest 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 20.70 15.69 11.16 9.82 7.73 6.37
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -14.61 -1.50 2.72 3.32 6.11
% Positive Periods 85% 98% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 19.52 13.99 8.46 7.15 5.38 3.75
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -20.75 -6.86 -0.29 0.78 3.52
% Positive Periods 77% 92% 99% 100% 100% 100%
Over all the available data source (Jan 1871 - Nov 2023)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 46.69 22.66 17.20 15.81 11.96 10.48
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -20.29 -10.10 -2.35 2.28 3.13 3.28
% Positive Periods 84% 97% 99% 100% 100% 100%
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 57.08 16.08 12.65 9.44 7.54 6.34
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -20.75 -12.87 -10.46 -4.49 -1.29 0.32
% Positive Periods 69% 84% 88% 89% 97% 100%
WITHDRAWAL RATES (WR)
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Safe WR (%) 31.33 22.77 11.68 7.86 5.86 5.14
Perpetual WR (%) 0.00 1.60 1.95 3.57 3.62 3.45
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio
  • Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
  • Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation)
  • Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio
  • Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame
  • Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the original portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money (dollar amount withdrawal).
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year, while retaining the inflation adjusted portfolio balance (percentage withdrawal).

Talking about withdrawal rates, how would you manage your early retirement with the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio? Read more here

Analyze your Portfolio: Backtest Now!
Explore historical data since 1871 and fine-tune your investment strategy for better results.

Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.

Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1. If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS
Monthly correlations as of 30 November 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Asset
VTI
BIL
TLT
GLD
VTI
-
0.08
0.83
0.27
BIL
0.08
-
-0.06
-0.12
TLT
0.83
-0.06
-
0.51
GLD
0.27
-0.12
0.51
-
Asset
VTI
BIL
TLT
GLD
VTI
-
-0.09
0.13
0.20
BIL
-0.09
-
0.08
0.09
TLT
0.13
0.08
-
0.42
GLD
0.20
0.09
0.42
-
Asset
VTI
BIL
TLT
GLD
VTI
-
-0.06
0.06
0.09
BIL
-0.06
-
0.01
0.10
TLT
0.06
0.01
-
0.43
GLD
0.09
0.10
0.43
-
Asset
VTI
BIL
TLT
GLD
VTI
-
-0.02
-0.12
0.06
BIL
-0.02
-
0.04
0.00
TLT
-0.12
0.04
-
0.20
GLD
0.06
0.00
0.20
-
Asset
VTI
BIL
TLT
GLD
VTI
-
-0.05
0.08
0.02
BIL
-0.05
-
0.06
-0.01
TLT
0.08
0.06
-
0.07
GLD
0.02
-0.01
0.07
-

If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

HARRY BROWNE PERMANENT PORTFOLIO
Drawdown periods
Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 December 1993 - 30 November 2023 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 30 November 2023 (~153 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months Ulcer Index
-15.92% Jan 2022 Sep 2022 9 in progress 14 23 9.21
-12.63% Mar 2008 Oct 2008 8 Aug 2009 10 18 4.94
-6.98% Aug 2016 Dec 2016 5 Aug 2017 8 13 3.48
-6.86% Oct 2012 Jun 2013 9 Feb 2014 8 17 3.11
-6.73% Feb 2015 Dec 2015 11 Apr 2016 4 15 4.30
-5.43% Sep 2000 Mar 2001 7 Mar 2002 12 19 2.54
-5.34% Jul 1998 Aug 1998 2 Oct 1998 2 4 2.52
-4.43% Jan 2021 Mar 2021 3 May 2021 2 5 2.62
-4.25% Feb 2018 Oct 2018 9 Feb 2019 4 13 2.22
-4.20% Apr 2004 Apr 2004 1 Oct 2004 6 7 2.55
-4.02% Jun 2002 Jul 2002 2 Dec 2002 5 7 2.00
-3.63% Feb 1994 Apr 1994 3 Feb 1995 10 13 2.18
-3.54% May 1999 Aug 1999 4 Oct 1999 2 6 2.13
-3.30% Sep 2020 Oct 2020 2 Dec 2020 2 4 1.84
-3.07% Dec 2009 Jan 2010 2 Apr 2010 3 5 1.77
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months Ulcer Index
-23.32% Jan 2021 Oct 2022 22 in progress 13 35 14.11
-14.59% Mar 2008 Oct 2008 8 Sep 2009 11 19 6.01
-8.29% Feb 2015 Sep 2015 8 Jun 2016 9 17 5.37
-7.69% Oct 2012 Jun 2013 9 Jun 2014 12 21 3.40
-7.29% Aug 2016 Dec 2016 5 Dec 2017 12 17 3.73
-7.25% Sep 2000 Mar 2001 7 May 2003 26 33 4.11
-6.15% Feb 2018 Oct 2018 9 Jun 2019 8 17 3.10
-5.64% May 1998 Aug 1998 4 Nov 1998 3 7 2.24
-4.94% Feb 1994 Nov 1994 10 May 1995 6 16 3.29
-4.80% Feb 1999 Aug 1999 7 Dec 1999 4 11 2.41
-4.51% Apr 2004 Apr 2004 1 Nov 2004 7 8 3.07
-3.69% Aug 2020 Oct 2020 3 Dec 2020 2 5 1.93
-3.64% Feb 1996 Jul 1996 6 Nov 1996 4 10 2.13
-3.49% Dec 1996 Mar 1997 4 May 1997 2 6 1.77
-3.23% Dec 2009 Jan 2010 2 Apr 2010 3 5 1.86
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months Ulcer Index
-30.61% Sep 1929 May 1932 33 Jun 1933 13 46 15.96
-15.92% Jan 2022 Sep 2022 9 in progress 14 23 9.21
-14.17% Mar 1937 Mar 1938 13 Jul 1941 40 53 5.11
-12.63% Mar 2008 Oct 2008 8 Aug 2009 10 18 4.94
-11.68% Dec 1980 Mar 1982 16 Aug 1982 5 21 7.51
-11.38% Feb 1980 Mar 1980 2 Jun 1980 3 5 5.46
-11.15% Apr 1974 Sep 1974 6 Jan 1975 4 10 5.73
-10.91% May 1969 Jun 1970 14 Jan 1971 7 21 6.39
-7.00% Jul 1975 Sep 1975 3 Mar 1976 6 9 3.27
-6.98% Aug 2016 Dec 2016 5 Aug 2017 8 13 3.48
-6.86% Oct 2012 Jun 2013 9 Feb 2014 8 17 3.11
-6.85% Jul 1973 Nov 1973 5 Jan 1974 2 7 4.42
-6.73% Feb 2015 Dec 2015 11 Apr 2016 4 15 4.30
-6.64% Apr 1876 Jun 1877 15 Apr 1878 10 25 3.15
-6.32% Oct 1906 Nov 1907 14 May 1908 6 20 3.14
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months Ulcer Index
-45.48% Jul 1911 Jun 1920 108 Aug 1926 74 182 21.03
-24.76% Feb 1946 Sep 1948 32 Jul 1955 82 114 16.86
-23.32% Jan 2021 Oct 2022 22 in progress 13 35 14.11
-22.94% Feb 1980 Jun 1982 29 Jan 1983 7 36 13.01
-17.45% Jun 1968 Jun 1970 25 Jan 1972 19 44 8.57
-16.65% Mar 1937 Apr 1942 62 Sep 1945 41 103 8.17
-16.26% Mar 1974 Sep 1974 7 Aug 1978 47 54 6.77
-14.59% Mar 2008 Oct 2008 8 Sep 2009 11 19 6.01
-14.08% Feb 1899 Dec 1899 11 Apr 1901 16 27 8.73
-13.81% Nov 1905 Oct 1907 24 Aug 1908 10 34 6.28
-12.73% Mar 1931 May 1932 15 Aug 1932 3 18 6.97
-11.91% Jul 1901 Feb 1904 32 Mar 1905 13 45 7.15
-11.01% Jul 1879 Jan 1880 7 Nov 1880 10 17 5.61
-10.87% Jul 1892 Feb 1893 8 Jan 1894 11 19 6.06
-10.86% Jul 1881 Jun 1882 12 Jun 1883 12 24 6.82

Rolling Returns

( more details)

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

HARRY BROWNE PERMANENT PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 December 1993 - 30 November 2023 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 30 November 2023 (~153 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -14.61 11/2021
10/2022
0.85$ 0.29 1.00$ 6.59 1.06$ 13.32 1.13$ 20.70 08/2019
07/2020
1.20$ 6.34 14.33%
2Y -5.08 10/2020
09/2022
0.90$ 2.23 1.04$ 6.93 1.14$ 10.94 1.23$ 16.58 11/2008
10/2010
1.35$ -2.38 5.34%
3Y -1.50 10/2020
09/2023
0.95$ 3.31 1.10$ 6.82 1.21$ 10.03 1.33$ 15.69 11/2008
10/2011
1.54$ 0.19 1.23%
5Y 2.72 02/2012
01/2017
1.14$ 4.37 1.23$ 6.79 1.38$ 9.07 1.54$ 11.16 03/2003
02/2008
1.69$ 5.76 0.00%
7Y 3.19 11/2011
10/2018
1.24$ 5.04 1.41$ 6.61 1.56$ 8.53 1.77$ 10.17 09/2004
08/2011
1.97$ 5.34 0.00%
10Y 3.32 10/2012
09/2022
1.38$ 5.87 1.76$ 6.79 1.92$ 8.18 2.19$ 9.82 10/2002
09/2012
2.55$ 4.86 0.00%
15Y 5.07 11/2007
10/2022
2.09$ 6.61 2.61$ 7.18 2.83$ 7.55 2.98$ 8.03 04/1997
03/2012
3.18$ 6.13 0.00%
20Y 6.11 01/1999
12/2018
3.27$ 6.47 3.50$ 6.82 3.73$ 7.37 4.14$ 7.73 02/1995
01/2015
4.43$ 6.39 0.00%
30Y 6.37 12/1993
11/2023
6.37$ 6.37 6.37$ 6.37 6.37$ 6.37 6.37$ 6.37 12/1993
11/2023
6.37$ 6.37 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -20.75 11/2021
10/2022
0.79$ -1.93 0.98$ 4.01 1.04$ 10.58 1.10$ 19.52 08/2019
07/2020
1.19$ 2.90 22.06%
2Y -11.11 10/2020
09/2022
0.79$ 0.14 1.00$ 4.70 1.09$ 7.93 1.16$ 16.01 11/2008
10/2010
1.34$ -7.22 13.95%
3Y -6.86 10/2020
09/2023
0.80$ 1.00 1.03$ 4.63 1.14$ 7.34 1.23$ 13.99 11/2008
10/2011
1.48$ -5.25 7.69%
5Y -0.29 11/2017
10/2022
0.98$ 2.15 1.11$ 4.35 1.23$ 6.56 1.37$ 8.46 11/2008
10/2013
1.50$ 1.63 0.66%
7Y 0.14 10/2016
09/2023
1.00$ 2.66 1.20$ 4.15 1.32$ 6.08 1.51$ 7.56 11/2005
10/2012
1.66$ 1.75 0.00%
10Y 0.78 10/2012
09/2022
1.08$ 3.66 1.43$ 4.53 1.55$ 5.83 1.76$ 7.15 10/2002
09/2012
1.99$ 1.99 0.00%
15Y 2.61 11/2007
10/2022
1.47$ 4.28 1.87$ 4.85 2.03$ 5.28 2.16$ 5.82 08/2005
07/2020
2.33$ 3.55 0.00%
20Y 3.52 11/2003
10/2023
1.99$ 4.08 2.22$ 4.50 2.41$ 5.03 2.67$ 5.38 02/1995
01/2015
2.85$ 3.71 0.00%
30Y 3.75 12/1993
11/2023
3.02$ 3.75 3.02$ 3.75 3.02$ 3.75 3.02$ 3.75 12/1993
11/2023
3.02$ 3.75 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -20.29 07/1931
06/1932
0.79$ -0.15 0.99$ 5.46 1.05$ 11.87 1.11$ 46.69 07/1932
06/1933
1.46$ 6.34 15.90%
2Y -14.89 06/1930
05/1932
0.72$ 1.46 1.02$ 5.29 1.10$ 9.99 1.20$ 30.12 07/1978
06/1980
1.69$ -2.38 6.35%
3Y -10.10 07/1929
06/1932
0.72$ 2.58 1.07$ 5.09 1.16$ 9.54 1.31$ 22.66 07/1977
06/1980
1.84$ 0.19 2.06%
5Y -2.35 06/1927
05/1932
0.88$ 3.09 1.16$ 5.10 1.28$ 9.02 1.54$ 17.20 10/1975
09/1980
2.21$ 5.76 0.96%
7Y 0.58 07/1925
06/1932
1.04$ 3.46 1.26$ 5.09 1.41$ 8.77 1.80$ 15.71 02/1973
01/1980
2.77$ 5.34 0.00%
10Y 2.28 06/1922
05/1932
1.25$ 3.65 1.43$ 5.01 1.63$ 8.45 2.25$ 15.81 07/1970
06/1980
4.34$ 4.86 0.00%
15Y 2.64 09/1881
08/1896
1.47$ 3.83 1.75$ 4.93 2.05$ 8.24 3.28$ 13.26 09/1971
08/1986
6.47$ 6.13 0.00%
20Y 3.13 07/1901
06/1921
1.85$ 3.98 2.18$ 4.90 2.60$ 8.45 5.06$ 11.96 07/1970
06/1990
9.57$ 6.39 0.00%
30Y 3.28 06/1902
05/1932
2.63$ 4.11 3.34$ 4.86 4.15$ 8.89 12.86$ 10.48 07/1970
06/2000
19.86$ 6.37 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
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Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -20.75 11/2021
10/2022
0.79$ -3.71 0.96$ 3.60 1.03$ 11.67 1.11$ 57.08 07/1932
06/1933
1.57$ 2.90 30.65%
2Y -15.42 12/1916
11/1918
0.71$ -1.21 0.97$ 3.85 1.07$ 9.06 1.18$ 24.20 06/1932
05/1934
1.54$ -7.22 22.24%
3Y -12.87 02/1917
01/1920
0.66$ -0.07 0.99$ 3.57 1.11$ 8.37 1.27$ 16.08 07/1932
06/1935
1.56$ -5.25 15.28%
5Y -10.46 07/1915
06/1920
0.57$ 0.53 1.02$ 3.60 1.19$ 7.19 1.41$ 12.65 07/1982
06/1987
1.81$ 1.63 11.94%
7Y -7.21 06/1913
05/1920
0.59$ 0.84 1.06$ 3.81 1.29$ 6.74 1.57$ 11.11 07/1872
06/1879
2.09$ 1.75 11.53%
10Y -4.49 12/1910
11/1920
0.63$ 0.87 1.09$ 3.70 1.43$ 6.25 1.83$ 9.44 06/1920
05/1930
2.46$ 1.99 10.72%
15Y -2.93 08/1905
07/1920
0.64$ 1.01 1.16$ 3.54 1.68$ 5.65 2.27$ 8.89 08/1920
07/1935
3.59$ 3.55 7.97%
20Y -1.29 07/1900
06/1920
0.77$ 1.41 1.32$ 3.59 2.02$ 5.02 2.66$ 7.54 05/1872
04/1892
4.28$ 3.71 2.94%
30Y 0.32 07/1890
06/1920
1.10$ 1.65 1.63$ 3.21 2.57$ 4.51 3.75$ 6.34 04/1871
03/1901
6.32$ 3.75 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
1.30
60%
-0.93
40%
0.65
40%
0.75
80%
0.24
60%
0.80
60%
2.15
100%
0.18
60%
-2.91
0%
0.48
60%
2.44
100%
0.82
80%
Best 5.2
2023
0.5
2022
4.0
2023
4.8
2020
1.9
2021
4.1
2019
5.4
2020
4.2
2019
-1.1
2019
2.8
2021
5.4
2023
2.7
2020
Worst -2.9
2022
-3.2
2023
-1.3
2020
-4.9
2022
-1.5
2022
-2.6
2022
0.5
2019
-2.6
2022
-4.7
2022
-1.5
2020
0.0
2021
-1.0
2022
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1871 - Nov 2023
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Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
1.68
80%
0.00
50%
0.36
40%
0.56
70%
0.20
60%
0.79
50%
1.23
80%
0.40
60%
-1.96
0%
0.12
60%
1.08
80%
0.55
60%
Best 5.2
2023
3.6
2016
4.0
2023
4.8
2020
1.9
2021
4.2
2016
5.4
2020
4.2
2019
-0.2
2016
2.8
2021
5.4
2023
2.7
2020
Worst -2.9
2022
-3.2
2023
-1.3
2020
-4.9
2022
-1.5
2022
-2.6
2022
-1.3
2014
-2.6
2022
-4.7
2022
-2.5
2016
-3.3
2016
-1.0
2022
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1871 - Nov 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
0.80
67%
0.36
61%
0.28
64%
0.54
67%
0.37
59%
0.40
61%
0.51
63%
0.56
65%
0.24
61%
0.28
59%
0.70
67%
0.74
74%
Best 14.8
1933
6.5
1974
4.8
1986
8.5
1933
8.2
1973
7.7
1980
6.7
1932
9.6
1982
7.7
1979
7.6
1974
5.6
2008
9.3
1979
Worst -4.6
1981
-4.0
1933
-9.3
1980
-4.9
2022
-6.1
1940
-4.2
1930
-2.6
1933
-4.1
1998
-7.2
1931
-8.5
2008
-5.3
1978
-3.2
1931
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1871 - Nov 2023

Monthly Returns

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

HARRY BROWNE PERMANENT PORTFOLIO
Monthly Returns Distribution
Data Source: 1 December 1993 - 30 November 2023 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 30 November 2023 (~153 years)
225 Positive Months (63%) - 135 Negative Months (38%)
1177 Positive Months (64%) - 658 Negative Months (36%)
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(Scroll down to see all data)
Investment Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated.
They have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
You can see details about extended Data Sources here.

In particular, the series derived from equivalent datasets are:
  • VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market, up to December 2001
  • BIL - SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill, up to December 2007
  • TLT - iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond, up to December 2002
  • GLD - SPDR Gold Trust, up to December 2004

Portfolio efficiency

The following portfolios granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.

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30 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Author Return Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Desert Portfolio Gyroscopic Investing +6.48 5.50 -14.72 30 60 10
Permanent Portfolio Harry Browne +6.37 6.58 -15.92 25 50 25

The following portfolios share asset allocation strategy and/or similar asset weights.

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5 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Author Return Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin Harry Browne +7.42 9.21 -16.88 25 50 25
Simplified Permanent Portfolio 2x Leveraged +6.91 16.89 -31.96 25 50 25
All Weather Portfolio 2x Leveraged Ray Dalio +6.32 21.42 -37.02 37.5 55 7.5
All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin Ray Dalio +6.28 10.75 -21.81 30 55 15
Permanent Portfolio Harry Browne +5.76 8.53 -15.92 25 50 25
Simplified Permanent Portfolio +5.73 8.63 -16.43 25 50 25
All Weather Portfolio Ray Dalio +4.70 10.06 -20.58 30 55 15

Here's a list containing the Best Classic Portfolios, with the highest returns over 30 Years and Medium Risk categorization.

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30 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Author Return Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Couch Potato Scott Burns +7.83 8.76 -27.04 50 50 0
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Momentum +7.75 6.99 -21.11 40 60 0
All Weather Portfolio Ray Dalio +7.19 7.39 -20.58 30 55 15
Robo Advisor 50 Betterment +7.16 9.32 -30.72 49.9 50.1 0
One-Decision Portfolio Marvin Appel +6.85 8.38 -31.96 50 50 0
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