Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin: ETF allocation and returns

Simulation Settings

Period: January 2009 - March 2025 (~16 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 March 2025
Live Update available for April 2025

Rebalancing: at every Jan 1^st

Currency: USD

Inflation: US

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Results

10 Years

All (since January 2009)

Live

Inflation Adjusted:

Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin

1.00$
Initial Capital
April 2015
2.47$
Final Capital
March 2025
9.47%
Yearly Return
8.52%
Std Deviation
-16.89%
Max Drawdown
27months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Initial Capital
April 2015
1.82$
Final Capital
March 2025
6.20%
Yearly Return
8.52%
Std Deviation
-22.71%
Max Drawdown
47months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Initial Capital
January 2009
11.97$
Final Capital
March 2025
16.51%
Yearly Return
34.54%
Std Deviation
-37.49%
Max Drawdown
29months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Initial Capital
January 2009
7.92$
Final Capital
March 2025
13.58%
Yearly Return
34.54%
Std Deviation
-38.14%
Max Drawdown
29months
Recovery Period

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1 Day: ---

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Month: ---

The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin can be implemented with 5 ETFs. This portfolio has a medium risk, signifying moderate fluctuations in value. It is suitable for investors with a balanced approach to risk and return, seeking steady growth while tolerating some level of volatility.

The portfolio asset allocation is: 25% on the Stock Market, 50% on Fixed Income, 25% on Commodities. In general, bonds are useful for mitigating overall portfolio risk, especially if they are issued by national entities or highly reliable companies. This portfolio has a 50% allocation to bonds, leading to its classification as medium risk.

As of March 2025, over the analyzed timeframe, the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin obtained a 16.51% compound annual return, with a 34.54% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -37.49% that required 29 months to be recovered.

Disclaimer: The simulations on this website are provided in good faith but should NOT be taken as investment advice. We are not liable for any errors or actions based on this information. The authors of the website are not affiliated with the portfolio creators, who are the sole owners of their intellectual property. The translation of asset allocations into ETFs is based on the interpretation of LazyPortfolioETF.com and may not exactly reflect the original intent of the portfolio creators. Content is for informational, educational, illustrative, and entertainment purposes only.

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Asset Allocation and ETFs

To effectively implement the asset allocation of the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin, investors can utilize the following selection of ETFs. These ETFs have been chosen specifically for their ability to represent each asset class within the portfolio and facilitate ease of management.

          25% Stocks
        
          50% Fixed Income
        
          25% Commodities

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Weight (%)	ETF Ticker	ETF Currency	ETF Name	Investment Themes (Orig.Currency)
25.00	VTI	USD	Vanguard Total Stock Market	Equity, U.S., Large Cap (USD)
25.00	BIL	USD	SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill	Bond, U.S., Ultra Short-Term (USD)
25.00	TLT	USD	iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond	Bond, U.S., Long-Term (USD)
23.00	GLD	USD	SPDR Gold Trust	Commodity, Gold (USD)
2.00	^BTC	USD	Bitcoin	Commodities (USD)

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

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Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Mar 31, 2025

The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:

no fees or capital gain taxes.
rebalancing: at every January 1^st. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
dividend reinvestment, when applicable.
the actual US Inflation rates.

HARRY BROWNE PERMANENT PORTFOLIO WITH BITCOIN

1 January 2009 - 31 March 2025 (~16 years)

Live Update: April 2025

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			Chg (%)		Return (%)	Return (%) as of Mar 31, 2025
			1 Day	Time ET^(*)	---	YTD (3M)	1M	6M	1Y	5Y	10Y	MAX (~16Y)
Investment Return			---		---	4.42	0.58	4.37	13.15	8.27	9.47	16.51
US Inflation Adjusted Return						3.76	0.63	2.73	10.50	3.74	6.20	13.58
*Components*
VTI	USD	Vanguard Total Stock Market	---	---	---	-4.83	-5.86	-2.28	7.17	18.10	11.76	13.88
BIL	USD	SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill	---	---	---	1.00	0.33	2.19	4.90	2.46	1.71	1.05
TLT	USD	iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond	---	---	---	4.94	-1.20	-5.27	0.19	-8.90	-1.09	1.17
GLD	USD	SPDR Gold Trust	---	---	---	19.00	9.45	18.55	40.06	14.25	9.75	7.68
^BTC	USD	Bitcoin	---	---	---	-11.65	-2.16	30.35	15.72	66.56	79.02	138.93
Returns over 1 year are annualized
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
The live monthly return is calculated by assuming, for each asset, the weight defined by the base asset allocation.
US Inflation is updated to Mar 2025. Inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 2.39% , 5Y: 4.37% , 10Y: 3.08%

In 2024, the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin granted a 2.65% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin: Dividend Yield page.

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Capital Growth as of Mar 31, 2025

An investment of 1$, from April 2015 to March 2025, would be worth 2.47$, with a total return of 147.12% (9.47% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital would be 1.82$, with a net total return of 82.41% (6.20% annualized).

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An investment of 1$, from January 2009 to March 2025, would be worth 11.97$, with a total return of 1097.24% (16.51% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital would be 7.92$, with a net total return of 691.67% (13.58% annualized).

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Portfolio Metrics as of Mar 31, 2025

Metrics of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin, updated as of 31 March 2025, provide a comprehensive overview of the portfolio's performance and risk characteristics.

These metrics include detailed data on returns, volatility, drawdowns and other key performance indicators. By examining them, you can gain insights into how the portfolio has performed over various time periods and understand its risk profile.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:

no fees or capital gain taxes.
rebalancing: at every January 1^st. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
dividend reinvestment, when applicable.
the actual US Inflation rates.

HARRY BROWNE PERMANENT PORTFOLIO WITH BITCOIN

Advanced Metrics

1 January 2009 - 31 March 2025 (~16 years)

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	Metrics as of Mar 31, 2025
	YTD (3M)	1M	3M	6M	1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	MAX (~16Y)
Investment Return (%)	4.42	0.58	4.42	4.37	13.15	6.40	8.27	9.47	16.51
Growth of 1$	1.04	1.01	1.04	1.04	1.13	1.20	1.49	2.47	11.97
Infl. Adjusted Return (%)	3.76	0.63	3.76	2.73	10.50	2.71	3.74	6.20	13.58
US Inflation (%)	0.63	-0.05	0.63	1.59	2.39	3.60	4.37	3.08	2.58
Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN Inflation Adjusted: Inflation Adjusted:				Current	1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)				0.00	-2.56	-14.56	-16.89	-16.89	-37.49
Start to Recovery (# months)					2	21	27	27	29
Start (yyyy mm)					2024 12	2022 04	2022 01	2022 01	2011 07
Start to Bottom (# months)					1	6	9	9	5
Bottom (yyyy mm)					2024 12	2022 09	2022 09	2022 09	2011 11
Bottom to End (# months)					1	15	18	18	24
End (yyyy mm)					2025 01	2023 12	2024 03	2024 03	2013 11
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)					-2.29	same	same	same	-23.85
Start to Recovery (# months)					2	same	same	same	45
Start (yyyy mm)					2024 04	2022 04	2022 01	2022 01	2013 12
Start to Bottom (# months)					1	6	9	9	1
Bottom (yyyy mm)					2024 04	2022 09	2022 09	2022 09	2013 12
Bottom to End (# months)					1	15	18	18	44
End (yyyy mm)					2024 05	2023 12	2024 03	2024 03	2017 08
Longest negative period (# months)					3	20	39	39	46
Start (yyyy mm)					2024 10	2022 04	2020 08	2020 08	2013 12
End (yyyy mm)					2024 12	2023 11	2023 10	2023 10	2017 09
Annualized Return (%)					-0.19	-1.64	-0.12	-0.12	-0.04
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)				0.00	-2.94	-17.33	-22.71	-22.71	-38.14
Start to Recovery (# months)					3	28	47	47	29
Start (yyyy mm)					2024 12	2022 04	2021 01	2021 01	2011 07
Start to Bottom (# months)					1	7	22	22	5
Bottom (yyyy mm)					2024 12	2022 10	2022 10	2022 10	2011 11
Bottom to End (# months)					2	21	25	25	24
End (yyyy mm)					2025 02	2024 07	2024 11	2024 11	2013 11
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)					same	same	same	same	-24.05
Start to Recovery (# months)					same	same	same	same	48
Start (yyyy mm)					2024 12	2022 04	2021 01	2021 01	2013 12
Start to Bottom (# months)					1	7	22	22	1
Bottom (yyyy mm)					2024 12	2022 10	2022 10	2022 10	2013 12
Bottom to End (# months)					2	21	25	25	47
End (yyyy mm)					2025 02	2024 07	2024 11	2024 11	2017 11
Longest negative period (# months)					3	27	49	52	52
Start (yyyy mm)					2024 10	2022 04	2021 01	2019 07	2019 07
End (yyyy mm)					2024 12	2024 06	2025 01	2023 10	2023 10
Annualized Return (%)					-3.90	-0.38	-0.05	-0.27	-0.27
RISK INDICATORS					1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	MAX
Standard Deviation (%)					6.20	9.86	9.24	8.52	34.54
Sharpe Ratio					1.33	0.23	0.63	0.91	0.45
Sortino Ratio					1.64	0.31	0.89	1.36	1.34
Ulcer Index					0.95	6.13	6.18	4.64	12.81
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation					2.12	0.65	0.90	1.11	0.48
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown					5.13	0.44	0.49	0.56	0.44
Positive Months (%)					83.33	63.88	63.33	61.66	62.56
Positive Months					10	23	38	74	122
Negative Months					2	13	22	46	73
LONG TERM RETURNS Inflation Adjusted: Inflation Adjusted:					1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized								9.47	23.30
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized								9.47	5.22
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized								6.20	21.20
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized								6.20	2.37
TIMEFRAMES Inflation Adjusted: Inflation Adjusted:		1M	3M	6M	1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	MAX
··· As of Mar 2025 - Over the previous 10Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					38.10	18.01	15.60	9.47
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					-16.40	0.21	4.73	9.47
Positive Periods (%)					87.1	100.0	100.0	100.0
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					35.22	15.82	13.37	6.20
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					-22.41	-5.22	0.88	6.20
Positive Periods (%)					81.6	69.4	100.0	100.0
95% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative		3.26	4.64	5.18
95% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%)		4.28	6.41	7.68
99% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative		4.93	7.54	9.29
99% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%)		6.00	9.39	11.90
Short term VaRs: analytical
Safe Withdrawal Rate (%)					87.44	29.09	20.87	13.62
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%)					---	---	0.96	6.15
% based on initial capital, inflation-adj. monthly withdrawals afterwards \| Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
··· All available data (Jan 2009 - Mar 2025)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					190.49	67.14	37.50	23.30
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					-29.51	-4.80	3.07	5.22
Positive Periods (%)					86.4	99.3	100.0	100.0
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					186.95	63.61	34.72	21.20
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					-30.65	-5.85	0.88	2.37
Positive Periods (%)					83.1	83.1	100.0	100.0
95% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative		14.79	23.58	30.52	10.34	0.00	0.00
95% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%)		18.93	30.75	40.66	17.15	0.00	0.00
99% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative		21.59	35.35	47.16	21.89	0.00	0.00
99% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%)		25.91	42.84	57.76	29.51	13.73	0.00
Short term VaRs: analytical \| 1+ year VaRs: historical data
Safe Withdrawal Rate (%)					71.18	27.34	17.62	10.46
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%)					---	---	0.96	2.18
% based on initial capital, inflation-adj. monthly withdrawals afterwards \| Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com

Terms and Definitions

Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio.
Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
Value at Risk (VaR): it's an evaluation of a cumulative worst-case loss (in absolute value), associated with a probability (95%-99%) and a time horizon. For short term, it's calculated based on the expected return and standard deviation, assuming a normal distribution of monthly returns. For long term is retrieved by the historical rolling return data.
Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR): it represents the average expected loss if that worst-case threshold (95%-99%) is ever crossed.
Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money in any case (money amount withdrawal).
For instance: Your initial invested capital is 100.000$; withdrawal rate (annualized) is 4%. This means that, in the first month, you will withdraw 100.000 * 4% * 1/12 = 333.33$. The second month, you’ll withdraw 333.33$ plus the inflation monthly rate. You’ll continue adjusting your withdraw monthly for inflation.
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.

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Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of two assets move in relation to each other. It is a statistical measure that describes the extent to which the returns of one asset are related to the returns of another asset.

COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS

Monthly correlations as of 31 March 2025

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Terms and Definitions

Correlation values range between -1 and +1

A correlation of +1 indicates that the returns of the two assets move in perfect synchrony; when one asset's returns go up, the other asset's returns also go up by the same percentage, and vice versa. This perfect positive correlation implies that the assets perform similarly in different market conditions.
A correlation of -1 indicates a perfect inverse relationship between the returns of the two assets. When one asset's returns go up, the other asset's returns go down by the same percentage. This perfect negative correlation suggests that the assets move in opposite directions, providing a diversification benefit by reducing overall portfolio risk.
A correlation of 0 means that there is no linear relationship between the returns of the two assets. The returns of one asset do not predict the returns of the other.

Learn about historical correlations here: see how the main asset classes relate to each other.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

HARRY BROWNE PERMANENT PORTFOLIO WITH BITCOIN

Drawdown periods

Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted

1 April 2015 - 31 March 2025 (10 Years)

1 January 2009 - 31 March 2025 (~16 years)

Inflation Adjusted:

Chart Table Range

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Rolling Returns

For a detailed rolling return analysis, click here
Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin: Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

HARRY BROWNE PERMANENT PORTFOLIO WITH BITCOIN

Annualized Rolling Returns

Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted

1 April 2015 - 31 March 2025 (10 Years)

1 January 2009 - 31 March 2025 (~16 years)

Inflation Adjusted:

Return Chart Capital Chart Table

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The values shown for the rolling periods represent key statistical points: the minimum, maximum, median, and the 15th and 85th percentiles. These percentiles give insight into the distribution of the data, indicating the range within which the central 70% of the values lie, while the median represents the middle value.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past. They are retrieved considering the time period from January 2009 to March 2025.

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For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.

Monthly Returns

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

HARRY BROWNE PERMANENT PORTFOLIO WITH BITCOIN

Monthly Returns Distribution

1 April 2015 - 31 March 2025 (10 Years)

1 January 2009 - 31 March 2025 (~16 years)

74 Positive Months (62%) - 46 Negative Months (38%)

122 Positive Months (63%) - 73 Negative Months (37%)

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Portfolio efficiency

Compare Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin performance and efficiency against top portfolios to identify strengths and areas for improvement.

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The first official book of

Mastering ETF Investing

Build wealth
with Lazy Portfolios and Passive Investing

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English book

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Italian book

Table of contents

Resources & Extras

Asset Allocation and ETFs

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Mar 31, 2025

Capital Growth as of Mar 31, 2025

Portfolio Metrics as of Mar 31, 2025

Portfolio Components Correlation

Drawdowns

Rolling Returns

Seasonality

Monthly Returns

Portfolio efficiency