Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin: ETF allocation and returns

Data Source: from January 2009 to May 2023 (~14 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 May 2023
Live Update: Jun 02 2023, 09:57PM Eastern Time
PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
0.17%
1 Day
Jun 02 2023, 09:57PM Eastern Time
0.37%
Current Month
June 2023

The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin is a Medium Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 5 ETFs.

It's exposed for 25% on the Stock Market and for 25% on Commodities.

In the last 10 Years, the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin obtained a 14.93% compound annual return, with a 40.55% standard deviation.

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin has the following asset allocation:

25% Stocks
50% Fixed Income
25% Commodities

The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight (%) Ticker ETF Name Investment Themes
25.00
VTI
Vanguard Total Stock Market Equity, U.S., Large Cap
25.00
BIL
SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill Bond, U.S., Ultra Short-Term
25.00
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Bond, U.S., Long-Term
23.00
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust Commodity, Gold
2.00
^BTC
Bitcoin Commodities

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of May 31, 2023

The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin guaranteed the following returns.

Portfolio returns are calculated in USD, assuming: June 2023 return is calculated on the hypothesis of a newly built portfolio, with the starting asset allocation.
HARRY BROWNE PERMANENT PORTFOLIO WITH BITCOIN
Consolidated returns as of 31 May 2023
Live Update: Jun 02 2023, 09:57PM Eastern Time
Swipe left to see all data
    Chg (%) Return (%) Return (%) as of May 31, 2023
    1 Day Time ET(*) Jun 2023 1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y MAX
(~14Y)
Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin -0.17 0.37 -1.12 5.47 1.49 6.36 14.93 16.71
US Inflation Adjusted return -1.12 3.51 -2.21 2.45 11.94 13.78
Components
VTI
Vanguard Total Stock Market 1.65 Jun 02 2023 2.67 0.43 2.44 2.13 9.99 11.40 9.04
BIL
SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill 0.01 Jun 02 2023 0.07 0.38 2.15 3.16 1.33 0.77 3.99
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond -1.10 Jun 02 2023 -0.71 -3.01 1.50 -9.43 -1.20 1.31 4.84
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust -1.47 Jun 02 2023 -0.70 -1.34 10.62 6.53 8.17 3.13 2.91
^BTC
Bitcoin 1.25 09:57PM, Jun 02 2023 1.25 -7.65 58.21 -13.80 29.91 73.29 147.10
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 2009
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Apr 2023. Waiting for updates, inflation of May 2023 is set to 0%. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 3.79% , 5Y: 3.81% , 10Y: 2.68%

In 2022, the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin granted a 1.13% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin: Dividend Yield page.

Portfolio Metrics as of May 31, 2023

Metrics of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin, updated as of 31 May 2023.

Portfolio metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
HARRY BROWNE PERMANENT PORTFOLIO WITH BITCOIN
Portfolio Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 2009 - 31 May 2023 (~14 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of May 31, 2023
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y MAX
(~14Y)
Portfolio Return (%) -1.12 3.98 5.47 1.49 3.05 6.36 14.93 16.71
US Inflation (%) 0.00 0.84 1.90 3.79 5.77 3.81 2.68 2.58
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) -1.12 3.11 3.51 -2.21 -2.57 2.45 11.94 13.78
Waiting for updates, inflation of May 2023 is temporarily set to 0%. Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 11.47 9.71 8.74 40.55 36.56
Sharpe Ratio -0.15 0.21 0.58 0.35 0.35
Sortino Ratio -0.22 0.31 0.85 1.27 1.05
MAXIMUM DRAWDOWN
Drawdown Depth (%) -8.29 -16.88 -16.88 -23.85 -37.49
Start (yyyy mm) 2022 06 2022 01 2022 01 2013 12 2011 07
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2013 12 2011 11
Start to Bottom (# months) 4 9 9 1 5
Start to Recovery (# months) in progress
8
> 17
> 17
45
29
ROLLING PERIOD RETURNS - Annualized
Best Return (%) 190.49 67.14 37.50 23.14
Worst Return (%) -29.51 -4.81 2.79 13.57
% Positive Periods 85% 99% 100% 100%
MONTHS
Positive 0 2 3 6 19 36 72 105
Negative 1 1 3 6 17 24 48 68
% Positive 0% 67% 50% 50% 53% 60% 60% 61%
WITHDRAWAL RATES (WR)
Safe WR (%) 34.51 23.13 25.59 21.48
Perpetual WR (%) 0.00 2.39 10.66 12.11
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Maximum Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.
  • Rolling Returns: returns over a time frame (best, worst, % of positive returns).
  • Pos./Neg. Months: number of months with positive/negative return.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the original portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money (dollar amount withdrawal).
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year, while retaining the inflation adjusted portfolio balance (percentage withdrawal).

Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.

Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1.

If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.

Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS
Monthly correlations as of 31 May 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Asset
VTI
BIL
TLT
GLD
^BTC
VTI
-
-0.06
0.58
0.34
0.65
BIL
-0.06
-
0.18
0.46
0.17
TLT
0.58
0.18
-
0.82
0.41
GLD
0.34
0.46
0.82
-
0.28
^BTC
0.65
0.17
0.41
0.28
-
Asset
VTI
BIL
TLT
GLD
^BTC
VTI
-
-0.17
0.06
0.18
0.43
BIL
-0.17
-
0.18
0.12
-0.10
TLT
0.06
0.18
-
0.44
0.14
GLD
0.18
0.12
0.44
-
0.19
^BTC
0.43
-0.10
0.14
0.19
-
Asset
VTI
BIL
TLT
GLD
^BTC
VTI
-
-0.13
-0.02
0.08
0.17
BIL
-0.13
-
0.10
0.14
-0.09
TLT
-0.02
0.10
-
0.44
-0.02
GLD
0.08
0.14
0.44
-
-0.05
^BTC
0.17
-0.09
-0.02
-0.05
-
Asset
VTI
BIL
TLT
GLD
^BTC
VTI
-
-0.15
-0.16
0.09
0.15
BIL
-0.15
-
0.02
0.08
-0.10
TLT
-0.16
0.02
-
0.24
-0.03
GLD
0.09
0.08
0.24
-
0.00
^BTC
0.15
-0.10
-0.03
0.00
-

If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.

Capital Growth as of May 31, 2023

An investment of 1000$, since June 2013, now would be worth 4021.54$, with a total return of 302.15% (14.93% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 3088.05$, with a net total return of 208.80% (11.94% annualized).
An investment of 1000$, since January 2009, now would be worth 9277.95$, with a total return of 827.79% (16.71% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 6429.54$, with a net total return of 542.95% (13.78% annualized).

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

HARRY BROWNE PERMANENT PORTFOLIO WITH BITCOIN
Drawdown periods
Updated to May 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months
-23.85% Dec 2013 Dec 2013 1 Aug 2017 44 45
-16.88% Jan 2022 Sep 2022 9 in progress 8 17
-6.85% Jun 2013 Jun 2013 1 Aug 2013 2 3
-4.62% Feb 2018 Oct 2018 9 Mar 2019 5 14
-2.85% Sep 2021 Sep 2021 1 Oct 2021 1 2
-2.64% Sep 2020 Oct 2020 2 Nov 2020 1 3
-2.63% Jan 2021 Feb 2021 2 Apr 2021 2 4
-2.44% Feb 2020 Mar 2020 2 Apr 2020 1 3
-1.64% Sep 2019 Sep 2019 1 Jan 2020 4 5
-1.56% Sep 2017 Sep 2017 1 Oct 2017 1 2
-0.21% Nov 2021 Nov 2021 1 Dec 2021 1 2
-0.12% Jun 2021 Jun 2021 1 Jul 2021 1 2
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months
-37.49% Jul 2011 Nov 2011 5 Nov 2013 24 29
-23.85% Dec 2013 Dec 2013 1 Aug 2017 44 45
-16.88% Jan 2022 Sep 2022 9 in progress 8 17
-6.36% Jan 2009 Feb 2009 2 Jul 2009 5 7
-4.62% Feb 2018 Oct 2018 9 Mar 2019 5 14
-2.89% Dec 2009 Jan 2010 2 Apr 2010 3 5
-2.85% Sep 2021 Sep 2021 1 Oct 2021 1 2
-2.64% Sep 2020 Oct 2020 2 Nov 2020 1 3
-2.63% Jan 2021 Feb 2021 2 Apr 2021 2 4
-2.44% Feb 2020 Mar 2020 2 Apr 2020 1 3
-1.64% Sep 2019 Sep 2019 1 Jan 2020 4 5
-1.56% Sep 2017 Sep 2017 1 Oct 2017 1 2
-0.36% Oct 2009 Oct 2009 1 Nov 2009 1 2
-0.26% Jan 2011 Jan 2011 1 Feb 2011 1 2
-0.21% Nov 2021 Nov 2021 1 Dec 2021 1 2
-0.12% Jun 2021 Jun 2021 1 Jul 2021 1 2
-0.05% May 2010 May 2010 1 Jun 2010 1 2
-0.02% Mar 2011 Mar 2011 1 Apr 2011 1 2

Rolling Returns ( more details)

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

HARRY BROWNE PERMANENT PORTFOLIO WITH BITCOIN
Annualized Rolling Returns
Data Source: from January 2009 to May 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Annualized Return (%) Negative
Periods
Average Latest Best Worst
1 Year
21.12 1.49 190.49
Dec 2012 - Nov 2013
-29.51
Jul 2011 - Jun 2012
15.43%
2 Years
20.24 -1.84 85.83
Dec 2011 - Nov 2013
-10.69
Jul 2011 - Jun 2013
9.33%
3 Years
19.64 3.05 67.14
Dec 2010 - Nov 2013
-4.81
Dec 2013 - Nov 2016
0.72%
5 Years
19.93 6.36 37.50
Mar 2009 - Feb 2014
2.79
Dec 2013 - Nov 2018
0.00%
7 Years
18.61 9.18 27.22
Feb 2011 - Jan 2018
6.65
Dec 2013 - Nov 2020
0.00%
10 Years
19.52 14.93 23.14
Aug 2010 - Jul 2020
13.57
Jul 2011 - Jun 2021
0.00%
Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.

For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
1.50
60%
-0.68
40%
0.87
60%
0.89
80%
0.18
60%
0.45
40%
2.12
100%
0.59
80%
-2.38
0%
0.49
60%
1.55
60%
0.98
80%
 Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100
101.50
100.82
101.69
102.59
102.78
103.24
105.43
106.05
103.52
104.03
105.65
106.68
Best 5.8
2023
0.7
2019
4.4
2023
5.3
2020
1.9
2019
5.0
2019
5.7
2020
3.8
2019
-0.8
2018
4.0
2021
4.7
2022
4.8
2020
Worst -3.2
2022
-3.0
2023
-1.9
2020
-5.2
2022
-1.7
2022
-3.2
2022
0.0
2019
-2.7
2022
-4.7
2022
-2.3
2018
-0.6
2019
-1.1
2022
Monthly Seasonality over the period Jun 2018 - May 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
1.62
80%
0.14
50%
0.36
40%
0.69
70%
0.42
60%
0.09
50%
1.61
90%
1.25
70%
-1.65
10%
1.97
70%
13.74
60%
-1.22
70%
 Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100
101.62
101.77
102.13
102.84
103.27
103.37
105.03
106.34
104.58
106.64
121.29
119.80
Best 5.8
2023
3.7
2016
4.4
2023
5.3
2020
2.4
2017
5.0
2019
5.7
2020
5.6
2017
0.4
2013
11.7
2013
123.5
2013
5.2
2017
Worst -3.2
2022
-3.0
2023
-1.9
2020
-5.2
2022
-1.7
2022
-6.9
2013
-1.3
2014
-2.7
2022
-4.7
2022
-2.3
2018
-2.9
2016
-23.8
2013
Monthly Seasonality over the period Jun 2013 - May 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
1.14
67%
0.41
53%
1.05
47%
2.48
80%
2.06
53%
2.26
57%
0.98
86%
0.19
71%
-1.59
29%
1.08
57%
10.22
64%
-0.26
64%
 Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100
101.14
101.55
102.62
105.17
107.34
109.76
110.84
111.04
109.28
110.46
121.75
121.43
Best 5.8
2023
4.9
2011
9.7
2013
20.6
2011
27.8
2011
29.4
2011
5.7
2020
5.6
2017
3.1
2009
11.7
2013
123.5
2013
7.7
2011
Worst -4.0
2009
-3.0
2023
-1.9
2020
-5.2
2022
-3.2
2013
-6.9
2013
-7.6
2011
-15.6
2011
-13.3
2011
-6.9
2011
-2.9
2016
-23.8
2013
Monthly Seasonality over the period Jan 2009 - May 2023

Monthly/Yearly Returns

Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin data source starts from January 2009: let's focus on monthly and yearly returns.

We are providing two different views:
  • Histogram: it shows the distribution of the returns recorded so far
  • Plain Table: it shows the detailed monthly and yearly returns
MONTHLY RETURNS HISTOGRAM
Jan 2009 - May 2023
105 Positive Months (61%) - 68 Negative Months (39%)
MONTHLY RETURNS TABLE
Jan 2009 - May 2023
(Scroll down to see all data)
Swipe left to see all data
Yearly Return(%)
Monthly Return(%)
Year Total Infl.Adj Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2023
+6.69 +4.38 5.8 -3.0 4.4 0.7 -1.1
2022
-13.79 -19.02 -3.2 0.6 -0.1 -5.2 -1.7 -3.2 2.2 -2.7 -4.7 0.2 4.7 -1.1
2021
+5.47 -1.46 -1.5 -1.2 0.5 2.6 0.4 -0.1 2.4 1.1 -2.8 4.0 -0.2 0.6
2020
+21.71 +20.08 3.6 -0.5 -1.9 5.3 1.4 1.2 5.7 0.2 -1.9 -0.7 3.1 4.8
2019
+17.70 +15.07 2.8 0.7 1.6 1.1 1.9 5.0 0.0 3.8 -1.6 1.3 -0.6 0.6
2018
-3.15 -4.97 0.8 -2.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.6 -0.6 0.3 0.7 -0.8 -2.3 0.7 0.0
2017
+36.15 +33.33 1.9 2.6 -0.5 1.6 2.4 0.7 1.2 5.6 -1.6 3.9 8.8 5.2
2016
+7.86 +5.67 1.0 3.7 1.3 1.4 -0.6 4.5 2.0 -1.3 0.0 -2.0 -2.9 0.9
2015
-2.10 -2.81 3.2 -1.6 -0.5 -0.9 -0.1 -1.6 0.2 -1.4 -0.6 2.9 -1.2 -0.4
2014
+8.27 +7.46 1.8 2.0 -0.7 0.6 1.0 2.0 -1.3 2.2 -2.8 0.7 1.5 1.0
2013
+122.23 +118.94 1.5 1.4 9.7 6.0 -3.2 -6.9 3.4 4.4 0.4 11.7 123.5 -23.8
2012
+9.90 +8.02 4.1 -0.5 -0.5 0.9 -1.0 1.7 2.4 1.8 1.9 -1.7 0.9 -0.5
2011
+40.38 +36.34 -0.3 4.9 0.0 20.6 27.8 29.4 -7.6 -15.6 -13.3 -6.9 -0.7 7.7
2010
+20.30 +18.53 -0.5 1.5 1.0 2.7 0.0 0.7 0.0 2.5 2.5 4.5 0.2 3.7
2009
+7.37 +4.52 -4.0 -2.5 2.1 0.1 3.1 -1.1 2.8 1.5 3.1 -0.4 5.2 -2.4

Portfolio efficiency

Compared to the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin, the following portfolios granted a higher return over 10 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.

Swipe left to see all data
10 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Author Return Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 with Bitcoin +16.93 37.56 -22.56 59 39 2
Golden Butterfly with Bitcoin +15.38 39.15 -23.09 40 40 20
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 with Bitcoin +15.16 38.23 -22.55 39 59 2
Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin Harry Browne +14.93 40.55 -23.85 25 50 25

The following portfolios share asset allocation strategy and/or similar asset weights.

Swipe left to see all data
5 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Author Return Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin Harry Browne +6.36 8.74 -16.88 25 50 25
Simplified Permanent Portfolio 2x Leveraged +6.22 15.96 -31.96 25 50 25
All Weather Portfolio 2x Leveraged Ray Dalio +5.88 20.04 -36.33 37.5 55 7.5
All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin Ray Dalio +5.31 10.10 -21.57 30 55 15
Simplified Permanent Portfolio +5.16 8.17 -16.43 25 50 25
Permanent Portfolio Harry Browne +5.03 8.03 -15.92 25 50 25
All Weather Portfolio Ray Dalio +3.99 9.33 -20.19 30 55 15

Here's a list containing the Best Classic Portfolios, with the highest returns over 10 Years and Medium Risk categorization.

Swipe left to see all data
10 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Author Return Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Couch Potato Scott Burns +6.61 9.01 -19.77 50 50 0
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Momentum +5.58 7.52 -21.11 40 60 0
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 +5.55 7.38 -18.63 40 60 0
One-Decision Portfolio Marvin Appel +5.37 8.49 -16.74 50 50 0
Four Square Scott Burns +4.95 8.37 -19.67 50 50 0