When holding the WisdomTree Physical Gold - GBP Daily Hedged (GBSP.L) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~234 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 1680 months (from January 1793 to December 1932).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 1681 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

WISDOMTREE PHYSICAL GOLD - GBP DAILY HEDGED (GBSP.L) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 July 1996 - 30 June 2026 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1793 - 30 June 2026 (~234 years)
30 Years
(1996/07 - 2026/06)
All Data
(1793/01 - 2026/06)

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As of Jun 30, 2026, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been -30.85%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

WISDOMTREE PHYSICAL GOLD - GBP DAILY HEDGED (GBSP.L) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 July 1996 - 30 June 2026 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1793 - 30 June 2026 (~234 years)
30 Years
(1996/07 - 2026/06)
All Data
(1793/01 - 2026/06)
UK Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

WISDOMTREE PHYSICAL GOLD - GBP DAILY HEDGED (GBSP.L) ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1793 - 30 June 2026 (~234 years)
Over Time
Histogram
UK Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-98.77%
Jul 2025 - Jun 2026
+0.00% +185.69%
Feb 1979 - Jan 1980
40.09%
1119 out of 2791
-98.80%
Jul 2025 - Jun 2026
-0.45% +141.32%
Feb 1979 - Jan 1980
54.53%
1522 out of 2791
-86.92%
Jul 2024 - Jun 2026
+0.00% +96.02%
Feb 1978 - Jan 1980
36.49%
1014 out of 2779
-87.30%
Jul 2024 - Jun 2026
-0.53% +72.96%
Apr 1972 - Mar 1974
55.49%
1542 out of 2779
-72.60%
Jul 2023 - Jun 2026
+0.00% +73.09%
Feb 1977 - Jan 1980
34.01%
941 out of 2767
-73.31%
Jul 2023 - Jun 2026
-0.44% +53.90%
Feb 1977 - Jan 1980
56.05%
1551 out of 2767
-61.80%
Jul 2022 - Jun 2026
+0.00% +60.96%
Sep 1976 - Aug 1980
33.07%
911 out of 2755
-63.26%
Jul 2022 - Jun 2026
-0.27% +41.09%
Sep 1976 - Aug 1980
54.88%
1512 out of 2755
-53.54%
Jul 2021 - Jun 2026
+0.00% +40.73%
Jan 1970 - Dec 1974
31.21%
856 out of 2743
-55.78%
Jul 2021 - Jun 2026
-0.34% +27.04%
Jan 1970 - Dec 1974
55.41%
1520 out of 2743
-47.43%
Jul 2020 - Jun 2026
+0.00% +34.05%
Feb 1974 - Jan 1980
30.61%
836 out of 2731
-49.75%
Jul 2020 - Jun 2026
-0.32% +23.23%
Sep 2005 - Aug 2011
54.71%
1494 out of 2731
-40.65%
Jul 2019 - Jun 2026
+0.00% +42.22%
Feb 1973 - Jan 1980
29.94%
814 out of 2719
-42.95%
Jul 2019 - Jun 2026
-0.41% +23.11%
Feb 1973 - Jan 1980
56.27%
1530 out of 2719
-35.99%
Jul 2018 - Jun 2026
+0.00% +42.19%
Feb 1972 - Jan 1980
29.74%
805 out of 2707
-38.32%
Jul 2018 - Jun 2026
-0.36% +24.15%
Feb 1972 - Jan 1980
55.49%
1502 out of 2707
-32.95%
Jul 2017 - Jun 2026
+0.00% +40.20%
Feb 1971 - Jan 1980
30.65%
826 out of 2695
-35.30%
Jul 2017 - Jun 2026
-0.37% +23.20%
Feb 1971 - Jan 1980
57.40%
1547 out of 2695
-30.85%
Jul 2016 - Jun 2026
+0.00% +36.85%
Oct 1970 - Sep 1980
29.26%
785 out of 2683
-33.21%
Jul 2016 - Jun 2026
-0.33% +20.68%
Feb 1970 - Jan 1980
56.88%
1526 out of 2683
-27.78%
Jul 2015 - Jun 2026
+0.00% +32.29%
Dec 1969 - Nov 1980
28.79%
769 out of 2671
-30.05%
Jul 2015 - Jun 2026
-0.30% +16.79%
Dec 1969 - Nov 1980
55.52%
1483 out of 2671
-26.61%
Jul 2014 - Jun 2026
+0.00% +29.73%
Feb 1968 - Jan 1980
28.02%
745 out of 2659
-28.73%
Jul 2014 - Jun 2026
-0.22% +15.98%
Sep 1999 - Aug 2011
53.52%
1423 out of 2659
-25.35%
Apr 2013 - Mar 2026
+0.00% +27.59%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1980
27.05%
716 out of 2647
-27.40%
Apr 2013 - Mar 2026
-0.18% +14.44%
Feb 1967 - Jan 1980
53.38%
1413 out of 2647
-24.48%
Jul 2012 - Jun 2026
+0.00% +25.53%
Oct 1966 - Sep 1980
26.94%
710 out of 2635
-26.60%
Jul 2012 - Jun 2026
-0.08% +13.16%
Feb 1966 - Jan 1980
51.65%
1361 out of 2635
-22.74%
Jul 2011 - Jun 2026
+0.00% +23.71%
Oct 1965 - Sep 1980
26.69%
700 out of 2623
-24.89%
Jul 2011 - Jun 2026
-0.02% +12.03%
Feb 1965 - Jan 1980
50.36%
1321 out of 2623
-20.59%
Jul 2010 - Jun 2026
+0.01% +22.27%
Oct 1964 - Sep 1980
26.89%
702 out of 2611
-22.86%
Jul 2010 - Jun 2026
+0.10% +11.07%
Feb 1964 - Jan 1980
47.87%
1250 out of 2611
-18.13%
Jul 2009 - Jun 2026
+0.01% +20.92%
Oct 1963 - Sep 1980
27.93%
726 out of 2599
-20.48%
Jul 2009 - Jun 2026
+0.08% +10.31%
Feb 1963 - Jan 1980
47.29%
1229 out of 2599
-17.16%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2026
+0.00% +19.68%
Oct 1962 - Sep 1980
28.02%
725 out of 2587
-19.49%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2026
+0.10% +9.62%
Feb 1962 - Jan 1980
46.85%
1212 out of 2587
-14.70%
Jul 2007 - Jun 2026
+0.00% +18.67%
Oct 1961 - Sep 1980
28.47%
733 out of 2575
-17.14%
Jul 2007 - Jun 2026
+0.14% +9.00%
Feb 1961 - Jan 1980
46.17%
1189 out of 2575
-13.83%
Jul 2006 - Jun 2026
+0.00% +17.69%
Oct 1960 - Sep 1980
29.26%
750 out of 2563
-16.28%
Jul 2006 - Jun 2026
+0.15% +8.38%
Feb 1960 - Jan 1980
44.56%
1142 out of 2563
-7.99%
Jul 2001 - Jun 2026
+0.01% +14.53%
Oct 1955 - Sep 1980
30.00%
751 out of 2503
-10.36%
Jul 2001 - Jun 2026
+0.04% +8.00%
Dec 2000 - Nov 2025
46.82%
1172 out of 2503
-7.70%
Jul 1996 - Jun 2026
+0.01% +11.71%
Oct 1950 - Sep 1980
30.21%
738 out of 2443
-9.90%
Jul 1996 - Jun 2026
+0.04% +5.23%
Jan 1996 - Dec 2025
48.30%
1180 out of 2443
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