Data Source: from April 1983 to November 2022 (~40 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 November 2022
Live Update: Dec 07 2022, 10:59AM Eastern Time
Category: Commodities
ETF: United States Oil Fund (USO)
ETF • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
0.84%
1 Day
Dec 07 2022, 10:59AM Eastern Time
7.90%
Current Month
December 2022

In the last 30 Years, the United States Oil Fund (USO) ETF obtained a -2.14% compound annual return, with a 34.48% standard deviation.

The ETF is related to the following investment themes:

  • Asset Class: Commodity
  • Commodity: Crude Oil

Historical Returns as of Nov 30, 2022

Historical returns and Metrics of United States Oil Fund (USO) ETF.

Returns and metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
  • No fees or capital gain taxes

ETF Returns, up to December 2006, are retrieved using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets.
UNITED STATES OIL FUND (USO) ETF
Portfolio Metrics
Data Source: 1 April 1983 - 30 November 2022 (~40 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of Nov 30, 2022
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
(~40Y)
Portfolio
Return (%)
-1.82 -3.94 -17.83 46.59 -8.92 -5.21 -12.28 -4.64 -2.14 -2.58
US Inflation (%) 0.00 0.62 1.96 7.22 5.03 3.85 2.61 2.52 2.50 2.85
Infl. Adjusted
Return (%)
-1.82 -4.53 -19.41 36.72 -13.29 -8.73 -14.52 -6.99 -4.53 -5.27
Waiting for updates, inflation of Nov 2022 is temporarily set to 0%. Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 28.95 56.20 47.59 39.36 36.35 34.48 35.09
Sharpe Ratio 1.57 -0.17 -0.13 -0.33 -0.16 -0.13 -0.19
Sortino Ratio 2.11 -0.20 -0.16 -0.42 -0.21 -0.17 -0.26
MAXIMUM DRAWDOWN
Drawdown Depth (%) -23.62 -81.34 -84.60 -93.85 -97.90 -97.90 -97.90
Start (yyyy mm) 2022 06 2020 01 2018 10 2014 07 2008 07 2008 07 2008 07
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2022 09 2020 04 2020 04 2020 04 2020 04 2020 04 2020 04
Start to Bottom (# months) 4 4 19 70 142 142 142
Start to Recovery (# months) in progress
> 6
> 35
> 50
> 101
> 173
> 173
> 173
ROLLING PERIOD RETURNS - Annualized
Best Return (%) 148.00 40.71 34.82 25.23 11.53 1.49
Worst Return (%) -82.02 -38.43 -34.94 -24.80 -10.46 -7.21
% Positive Periods 50% 44% 43% 56% 65% 26%
MONTHS
Positive 0 1 1 7 22 36 62 129 193 252
Negative 1 2 5 5 14 24 58 111 167 224
% Positive 0% 33% 17% 58% 61% 60% 52% 54% 54% 53%
WITHDRAWAL RATES (WR)
Safe WR (%) 17.80 12.59 2.96 2.74 2.16 0.91
Perpetual WR (%) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the ETF
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the ETF. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the ETF over the risk-free rate by the ETF standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the ETF. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the ETF downside standard deviation).
  • Maximum Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.
  • Rolling Returns: returns over a time frame (best, worst, % of positive returns).
  • Pos./Neg. Months: number of months with positive/negative return.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the original portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money (dollar amount withdrawal).
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year, while retaining the inflation adjusted portfolio balance (percentage withdrawal).

Correlations as of Nov 30, 2022

Monthly correlations of United States Oil Fund (USO) ETF vs the main Asset Classes, over different timeframes.

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.

Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1.

If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.

Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.

Columns are sortable (click on table header to sort).

UNITED STATES OIL FUND (USO) ETF
Monthly correlations as of 30 November 2022
Swipe left to see all data
Correlation vs USO
 
Asset Class 1 Year 5 Years 10 Years 30 Years Since
Jan 1992
US Total Stock Market
VTI
0.28
0.39
0.36
0.27
0.27
US Large Cap
SPY
0.32
0.38
0.34
0.25
0.25
US Small Cap
IJR
0.33
0.49
0.42
0.33
0.32
US REITs
VNQ
0.33
0.38
0.20
0.17
0.17
US Technology
QQQ
0.14
0.25
0.22
0.20
0.19
Preferred Stocks
PFF
0.12
0.28
0.21
0.15
0.15
EAFE Stocks
EFA
0.31
0.51
0.45
0.35
0.35
World All Countries
VT
0.31
0.45
0.42
0.32
0.32
Emerging Markets
EEM
0.18
0.40
0.36
0.30
0.30
Europe
VGK
0.35
0.52
0.47
0.33
0.33
Pacific
VPL
0.24
0.45
0.37
0.33
0.32
Latin America
FLLA
0.60
0.52
0.45
0.34
0.34
US Total Bond Market
BND
0.07
-0.09
-0.15
-0.09
-0.08
Long Term Treasuries
TLT
-0.10
-0.33
-0.38
-0.25
-0.25
US Cash
BIL
-0.60
-0.28
-0.13
0.03
0.03
TIPS
TIP
0.35
0.05
0.01
0.08
0.08
Invest. Grade Bonds
LQD
0.09
0.14
0.07
0.01
0.02
High Yield Bonds
HYG
0.29
0.42
0.41
0.24
0.24
International Bonds
BNDX
0.07
-0.03
-0.13
0.01
0.01
Emerg. Market Bonds
EMB
0.12
0.39
0.30
0.16
0.16
Gold
GLD
0.18
-0.11
-0.03
0.10
0.10
Commodities
DBC
0.92
0.86
0.86
0.82
0.82

Capital Growth as of Nov 30, 2022

An investment of 1000$, since December 1992, now would be worth 522.20$, with a total return of -47.78% (-2.14% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 248.82$, with a net total return of -75.12% (-4.53% annualized).
An investment of 1000$, since April 1983, now would be worth 354.85$, with a total return of -64.51% (-2.58% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 116.57$, with a net total return of -88.34% (-5.27% annualized).

Drawdowns

Worst drawdowns since December 1992.

Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months
-97.90% Jul 2008 Apr 2020 142 in progress 31 173
-56.71% Jan 1997 Nov 1998 23 Jan 2000 14 37
-42.52% Dec 2000 Nov 2001 12 Feb 2003 15 27
-31.21% Mar 1993 Dec 1993 10 Mar 1996 27 37
-29.51% Mar 2003 Apr 2003 2 Apr 2004 12 14
-23.29% Aug 2006 Jan 2007 6 Oct 2007 9 15
-16.86% Sep 2005 Nov 2005 3 Apr 2006 5 8
-16.05% Nov 2004 Dec 2004 2 Mar 2005 3 5
-15.60% Jul 2000 Jul 2000 1 Aug 2000 1 2
-15.41% Mar 2000 Apr 2000 2 Jun 2000 2 4
-10.25% Apr 2005 Apr 2005 1 Jun 2005 2 3
-7.96% Apr 1996 May 1996 2 Aug 1996 3 5
-7.10% Jun 2004 Jun 2004 1 Jul 2004 1 2
-6.88% Sep 2000 Sep 2000 1 Nov 2000 2 3
-4.59% Nov 2007 Nov 2007 1 Dec 2007 1 2
-4.50% Jan 2008 Jan 2008 1 Feb 2008 1 2
-4.22% Oct 1996 Oct 1996 1 Dec 1996 2 3
-3.84% Aug 2004 Aug 2004 1 Sep 2004 1 2
-1.96% Dec 1992 Dec 1992 1 Jan 1993 1 2
-0.82% May 2006 May 2006 1 Jun 2006 1 2

Worst drawdowns since April 1983.

Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months
-97.90% Jul 2008 Apr 2020 142 in progress 31 173
-71.60% Oct 1990 Nov 1998 98 May 2004 66 164
-67.44% Aug 1983 Mar 1986 32 Sep 1990 54 86
-23.29% Aug 2006 Jan 2007 6 Oct 2007 9 15
-16.86% Sep 2005 Nov 2005 3 Apr 2006 5 8
-16.05% Nov 2004 Dec 2004 2 Mar 2005 3 5
-10.25% Apr 2005 Apr 2005 1 Jun 2005 2 3
-7.10% Jun 2004 Jun 2004 1 Jul 2004 1 2
-4.59% Nov 2007 Nov 2007 1 Dec 2007 1 2
-4.50% Jan 2008 Jan 2008 1 Feb 2008 1 2
-3.84% Aug 2004 Aug 2004 1 Sep 2004 1 2
-1.24% May 1983 May 1983 1 Jun 1983 1 2
-0.82% May 2006 May 2006 1 Jun 2006 1 2

Rolling Returns ( more details)

United States Oil Fund (USO) ETF: annualized rolling and average returns

Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Return (*) Negative
Periods
Average (%) Best (%) Worst (%)
1 Year
4.38 148.00
Mar 1999 - Feb 2000
-82.02
May 2019 - Apr 2020
50.11%
2 Years
-0.26 100.89
May 2020 - Apr 2022
-58.38
May 2018 - Apr 2020
53.20%
3 Years
-2.08 40.71
May 2003 - Apr 2006
-38.43
May 2017 - Apr 2020
56.01%
5 Years
-1.57 34.82
Jul 2003 - Jun 2008
-34.94
May 2015 - Apr 2020
57.31%
7 Years
-1.44 26.99
Feb 1999 - Jan 2006
-31.32
May 2013 - Apr 2020
52.42%
10 Years
-0.75 25.23
Jul 1998 - Jun 2008
-24.80
May 2010 - Apr 2020
44.26%
15 Years
0.54 14.00
Jul 1993 - Jun 2008
-17.40
May 2005 - Apr 2020
40.40%
20 Years
1.35 11.53
Jul 1988 - Jun 2008
-10.46
May 2000 - Apr 2020
35.44%
30 Years
-1.33 1.49
Aug 1984 - Jul 2014
-7.21
Oct 1990 - Sep 2020
74.36%
(*) Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the United States Oil Fund (USO) ETF: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

United States Oil Fund (USO) ETF: in which months is it better to invest?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.

For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
6.34
80%
2.64
60%
-7.42
60%
-4.12
80%
6.56
60%
6.37
80%
-0.58
60%
-1.62
40%
-0.87
40%
-0.79
40%
-2.94
40%
5.01
80%
 Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100
106.34
109.15
101.05
96.88
103.24
109.82
109.19
107.42
106.49
105.65
102.54
107.68
Best 17.5
2019
17.4
2021
9.8
2022
6.8
2021
35.4
2020
11.1
2018
3.6
2020
5.2
2020
9.4
2021
9.6
2022
22.7
2020
13.5
2021
Worst -15.4
2020
-12.8
2020
-55.4
2020
-43.2
2020
-16.5
2019
-6.0
2022
-5.2
2018
-6.3
2022
-10.7
2022
-11.1
2018
-22.2
2018
-10.0
2018
Monthly Seasonality over the period Dec 2017 - Nov 2022
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Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
0.78
50%
0.85
60%
-3.86
50%
0.86
60%
3.62
50%
3.06
60%
-2.92
50%
-0.49
50%
-0.61
40%
-1.88
40%
-3.87
40%
0.50
70%
 Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100
100.78
101.63
97.71
98.55
102.11
105.24
102.17
101.67
101.04
99.15
95.31
95.79
Best 17.5
2019
17.4
2021
9.8
2022
21.8
2015
35.4
2020
11.1
2018
9.3
2013
6.1
2016
9.4
2021
9.6
2022
22.7
2020
13.5
2021
Worst -15.4
2020
-12.8
2020
-55.4
2020
-43.2
2020
-16.5
2019
-6.0
2022
-21.6
2015
-6.3
2022
-10.7
2022
-11.1
2018
-22.2
2018
-20.4
2014
Monthly Seasonality over the period Dec 2012 - Nov 2022
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
-0.60
51%
-0.15
56%
1.48
67%
2.20
60%
1.16
48%
0.84
50%
0.10
68%
2.13
53%
1.42
50%
-2.05
43%
-2.92
35%
0.24
56%
 Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100
99.40
99.25
100.72
102.94
104.13
105.01
105.11
107.35
108.87
106.64
103.52
103.76
Best 17.5
2019
17.4
2021
36.6
1999
28.0
1986
35.4
2020
14.5
1999
21.2
1990
42.6
1986
44.6
1990
17.2
2011
22.7
2020
19.6
1986
Worst -28.4
1986
-29.6
1986
-55.4
2020
-43.2
2020
-17.8
2012
-13.4
1988
-21.6
2015
-11.2
1994
-13.9
2001
-32.2
2008
-24.3
2008
-21.4
2008
Monthly Seasonality over the period Apr 1983 - Nov 2022

Monthly/Yearly Returns

United States Oil Fund (USO) ETF data source starts from April 1983: let's focus on monthly and yearly returns.

We are providing two different views:
  • Histogram: it shows the distribution of the returns recorded so far
  • Plain Table: it shows the detailed monthly and yearly returns
MONTHLY RETURNS HISTOGRAM
Apr 1983 - Nov 2022
252 Positive Months (53%) - 224 Negative Months (47%)
MONTHLY RETURNS TABLE
Apr 1983 - Nov 2022
(Scroll down to see all data)
Swipe left to see all data
Yearly Return(%)
Monthly Return(%)
Year Total Infl.Adj Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2022
+29.19 +20.87 14.9 8.0 9.8 4.1 10.8 -6.0 -2.9 -6.3 -10.7 9.6 -1.8
2021
+64.68 +53.85 6.6 17.4 -1.9 6.8 5.0 9.8 1.6 -5.2 9.4 8.7 -16.2 13.5
2020
-67.79 -68.22 -15.4 -12.8 -55.4 -43.2 35.4 8.4 3.6 5.2 -7.5 -10.7 22.7 6.6
2019
+32.61 +29.65 17.5 5.3 4.6 6.3 -16.5 8.5 0.0 -4.8 -1.0 -0.4 2.8 10.2
2018
-19.57 -21.07 8.1 -4.7 5.8 5.4 -1.8 11.1 -5.2 3.0 5.5 -11.1 -22.2 -10.0
2017
+2.47 +0.36 -3.4 1.1 -7.1 -3.8 -2.7 -4.6 8.2 -6.3 8.3 4.8 4.9 4.7
2016
+6.55 +4.38 -12.3 -6.7 7.8 16.5 5.0 -2.5 -15.6 6.1 5.5 -3.7 3.8 7.2
2015
-45.97 -46.36 -12.5 1.6 -7.0 21.8 -1.0 -2.1 -21.6 1.9 -7.6 0.9 -12.7 -14.9
2014
-42.36 -42.79 -1.5 5.6 -0.4 -0.7 3.7 3.2 -6.6 -1.5 -3.8 -11.0 -16.5 -20.4
2013
+5.84 +4.28 5.7 -6.3 5.1 -4.6 -1.7 4.8 9.3 3.0 -4.2 -5.9 -3.5 5.6
2012
-12.44 -13.94 -0.8 8.2 -4.1 1.1 -17.8 -2.4 2.7 9.8 -4.9 -6.9 2.5 2.5
2011
-2.28 -5.09 -1.0 1.5 8.7 6.0 -10.3 -8.0 0.5 -7.8 -11.6 17.2 8.5 -1.7
2010
-0.71 -2.18 -9.3 8.9 3.8 2.6 -17.6 -0.2 4.1 -9.7 9.1 0.9 2.5 8.2
2009
+18.67 +15.53 -11.7 -7.4 7.4 -1.4 27.1 4.2 -3.0 -2.1 0.4 8.6 -0.4 0.3
2008
-56.31 -56.35 -4.5 11.2 1.2 13.7 11.4 10.3 -12.0 -7.1 -11.7 -32.2 -24.3 -21.4
2007
+46.82 +41.06 -6.5 6.1 4.2 -4.0 -4.4 8.3 10.4 -4.7 12.1 17.1 -4.6 8.4
2006
+0.02 -2.46 11.3 -9.6 8.5 7.9 -0.8 3.7 0.6 -5.6 -10.5 -6.6 7.5 -3.3
2005
+40.48 +35.84 10.9 7.4 7.1 -10.3 4.5 8.7 7.2 13.8 -3.9 -9.8 -4.1 6.5
2004
+33.61 +29.40 1.6 9.4 -1.1 4.5 6.7 -7.1 18.2 -3.8 17.9 4.3 -5.1 -11.6
2003
+4.23 +2.31 7.4 9.2 -15.2 -16.9 14.6 2.1 1.2 3.4 -7.5 -0.3 4.5 6.9
2002
+57.26 +53.61 -1.8 11.6 21.0 3.7 -7.3 6.1 0.6 7.3 5.1 -10.6 -1.2 16.0
2001
-25.97 -27.10 6.9 -4.4 -4.0 8.3 -0.3 -7.5 0.4 3.2 -13.9 -9.6 -8.2 2.1
2000
+4.69 +1.26 8.0 10.1 -11.6 -4.3 12.7 12.0 -15.6 20.7 -6.9 6.0 3.4 -20.8
1999
+112.45 +106.89 5.8 -3.8 36.6 11.3 -9.8 14.5 6.4 7.7 10.9 -11.3 13.1 4.1
1998
-31.69 -32.77 -2.4 -10.3 1.1 -1.4 -1.2 -6.7 0.2 -6.1 21.0 -10.7 -22.2 7.4
1997
-31.94 -33.08 -6.8 -15.9 0.5 -1.0 3.3 -5.2 1.7 -2.6 8.0 -0.5 -9.2 -7.9
1996
+32.58 +28.32 -9.3 10.1 9.9 -1.3 -6.8 5.9 -2.4 9.0 9.6 -4.2 1.7 9.1
1995
+10.08 +7.35 3.5 0.5 3.7 6.3 -7.3 -7.9 0.9 1.6 -1.7 0.6 3.1 7.5
1994
+25.34 +22.07 7.2 -4.7 2.1 14.3 8.3 5.8 2.1 -11.2 4.7 -1.1 -0.8 -1.6
1993
-27.33 -29.28 3.9 1.7 -0.8 0.4 -2.5 -5.8 -5.1 2.3 2.7 -10.0 -8.8 -8.2
1992
+1.99 -0.89 -1.2 -1.2 4.1 7.3 6.0 -2.3 1.3 -1.8 1.1 -5.0 -3.5 -2.0
1991
-32.77 -34.77 -24.3 -11.0 2.5 6.8 0.8 -2.7 5.4 2.7 -0.1 5.1 -8.1 -11.0
1990
+30.34 +22.84 3.9 -5.0 -5.8 -8.6 -6.1 -1.9 21.2 32.0 44.6 -10.8 -18.1 -1.4
1989
+26.57 +20.95 -1.2 6.6 11.2 1.1 -2.5 1.9 -9.7 2.8 6.9 -0.9 -0.3 9.7
1988
+3.23 -1.14 1.4 -5.5 6.7 5.3 -2.7 -13.4 7.6 -6.9 -11.9 1.6 12.8 12.5
1987
-6.91 -10.86 4.5 -11.5 13.4 -0.5 3.5 4.7 5.3 -7.7 -0.7 1.9 -7.3 -9.8
1986
-31.79 -32.53 -28.4 -29.6 -21.4 28.0 7.2 -10.6 -12.8 42.6 -7.1 3.4 -1.8 19.6
1985
-0.42 -4.06 0.0 1.2 5.8 -2.3 0.8 -3.5 0.9 3.5 3.6 4.5 -2.1 -11.6
1984
-10.78 -14.17 1.3 1.9 1.0 -1.9 1.9 -3.5 -7.2 5.9 1.5 -4.0 -4.0 -3.3
1983
- - 4.6 -1.2 3.7 2.0 -1.3 -3.9 0.0 -3.8 1.3

ETF Returns, up to December 2006, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets.

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