United States Oil Fund (USO): Rolling Returns

Data Source: from April 1983 to March 2024 (~41 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 March 2024

Holding the United States Oil Fund (USO) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?

Considering all the available data source (~41 years), the longest period with a negative return lasted 492 months (from April 1983 to March 2024). This negative series is not closed yet.

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the United States Oil Fund (USO) ETF: Historical Returns page.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Considering all 10-year rolling periods, is there a relationship between past and future returns, at a given date?

In the following chart, we show how past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis) are related.

Neighboring data is aggregated and occurrences are indicated. It is possible to zoom by clicking or drawing the desired area

UNITED STATES OIL FUND (USO) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Updated to March 2024

The annualized return of the last 10 years has been -12.31% (updated at Mar 31, 2024).

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

UNITED STATES OIL FUND (USO) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 April 1994 - 31 March 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 April 1983 - 31 March 2024 (~41 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return -0.00% +148.00%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2000 		-82.02%
May 2019 - Apr 2020 		50.10%
241 out of 481
US Inflation Adjusted -2.45% +140.27%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2000 		-82.08%
May 2019 - Apr 2020 		53.43%
257 out of 481
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return -0.42% +100.89%
May 2020 - Apr 2022 		-58.38%
May 2018 - Apr 2020 		51.39%
241 out of 469
US Inflation Adjusted -3.15% +89.19%
May 2020 - Apr 2022 		-58.87%
May 2018 - Apr 2020 		57.14%
268 out of 469
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return -1.80% +52.27%
May 2020 - Apr 2023 		-38.43%
May 2017 - Apr 2020 		54.70%
250 out of 457
US Inflation Adjusted -4.33% +43.97%
May 2020 - Apr 2023 		-39.40%
May 2017 - Apr 2020 		62.14%
284 out of 457
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return -2.76% +38.03%
Jul 2004 - Jun 2008 		-32.18%
May 2016 - Apr 2020 		56.40%
251 out of 445
US Inflation Adjusted -5.32% +33.25%
Jul 2004 - Jun 2008 		-33.35%
May 2016 - Apr 2020 		66.07%
294 out of 445
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return -2.36% +34.82%
Jul 2003 - Jun 2008 		-34.94%
May 2015 - Apr 2020 		58.89%
255 out of 433
US Inflation Adjusted -5.23% +30.26%
Jul 2003 - Jun 2008 		-35.99%
May 2015 - Apr 2020 		69.98%
303 out of 433
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return -1.90% +30.79%
Jul 2002 - Jun 2008 		-36.46%
May 2014 - Apr 2020 		59.14%
249 out of 421
US Inflation Adjusted -5.07% +26.69%
Jul 2002 - Jun 2008 		-37.30%
May 2014 - Apr 2020 		67.70%
285 out of 421
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return -1.11% +26.99%
Feb 1999 - Jan 2006 		-31.32%
May 2013 - Apr 2020 		54.28%
222 out of 409
US Inflation Adjusted -4.47% +23.58%
Feb 1999 - Jan 2006 		-32.29%
May 2013 - Apr 2020 		65.28%
267 out of 409
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return -0.68% +24.10%
Dec 1998 - Nov 2006 		-29.62%
May 2012 - Apr 2020 		52.39%
208 out of 397
US Inflation Adjusted -3.74% +20.92%
Dec 1998 - Nov 2006 		-30.59%
May 2012 - Apr 2020 		60.71%
241 out of 397
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.22% +25.56%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2008 		-27.86%
May 2011 - Apr 2020 		48.83%
188 out of 385
US Inflation Adjusted -2.65% +22.04%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2008 		-28.92%
May 2011 - Apr 2020 		61.04%
235 out of 385
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.78% +25.23%
Jul 1998 - Jun 2008 		-24.80%
May 2010 - Apr 2020 		46.65%
174 out of 373
US Inflation Adjusted -2.08% +21.65%
Jul 1998 - Jun 2008 		-26.02%
May 2010 - Apr 2020 		59.25%
221 out of 373
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +1.96% +19.02%
Jul 1997 - Jun 2008 		-20.49%
Nov 2009 - Oct 2020 		47.09%
170 out of 361
US Inflation Adjusted -0.90% +15.76%
Jul 1997 - Jun 2008 		-21.81%
Nov 2009 - Oct 2020 		55.68%
201 out of 361
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +1.09% +16.77%
Jul 1996 - Jun 2008 		-26.26%
May 2008 - Apr 2020 		46.99%
164 out of 349
US Inflation Adjusted -1.74% +13.63%
Jul 1996 - Jun 2008 		-27.36%
May 2008 - Apr 2020 		56.16%
196 out of 349
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 13 Years (156 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +2.35% +17.03%
Jul 1995 - Jun 2008 		-21.49%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2020 		43.92%
148 out of 337
US Inflation Adjusted -0.53% +13.88%
Jul 1995 - Jun 2008 		-22.79%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2020 		53.71%
181 out of 337
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 14 Years (168 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +2.51% +14.84%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2008 		-20.63%
May 2006 - Apr 2020 		45.23%
147 out of 325
US Inflation Adjusted -0.39% +11.72%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2008 		-22.01%
May 2006 - Apr 2020 		52.92%
172 out of 325
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 15 Years (180 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +2.26% +14.00%
Jul 1993 - Jun 2008 		-17.40%
May 2005 - Apr 2020 		43.45%
136 out of 313
US Inflation Adjusted -0.86% +10.92%
Jul 1993 - Jun 2008 		-18.92%
May 2005 - Apr 2020 		52.40%
164 out of 313
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 16 Years (192 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +2.67% +12.11%
Jul 1992 - Jun 2008 		-15.15%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2020 		42.86%
129 out of 301
US Inflation Adjusted -0.00% +9.07%
Jul 1992 - Jun 2008 		-16.78%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2020 		50.17%
151 out of 301
16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 17 Years (204 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +2.73% +11.68%
Jul 1991 - Jun 2008 		-12.20%
May 2003 - Apr 2020 		43.25%
125 out of 289
US Inflation Adjusted +0.37% +8.64%
Jul 1991 - Jun 2008 		-13.91%
May 2003 - Apr 2020 		49.48%
143 out of 289
17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 18 Years (216 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.78% +12.15%
Jul 1990 - Jun 2008 		-11.83%
May 2002 - Apr 2020 		45.49%
126 out of 277
US Inflation Adjusted -1.70% +8.99%
Jul 1990 - Jun 2008 		-13.56%
May 2002 - Apr 2020 		53.43%
148 out of 277
18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 19 Years (228 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +1.03% +10.47%
Jul 1989 - Jun 2008 		-11.44%
May 2001 - Apr 2020 		42.64%
113 out of 265
US Inflation Adjusted -1.28% +7.26%
Jul 1989 - Jun 2008 		-13.16%
May 2001 - Apr 2020 		57.36%
152 out of 265
19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 20 Years (240 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +1.30% +11.53%
Jul 1988 - Jun 2008 		-10.46%
May 2000 - Apr 2020 		39.53%
100 out of 253
US Inflation Adjusted -1.02% +8.17%
Jul 1988 - Jun 2008 		-12.25%
May 2000 - Apr 2020 		56.13%
142 out of 253
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the United States Oil Fund (USO) ETF: Historical Returns page.