When holding the UBS BBG Commodity CMCI SF UCITS hGBP acc (UD06.L) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~76 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 238 months (from October 2005 to July 2025). This negative serie is not closed yet.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
UBS BBG Commodity CMCI SF UCITS hGBP acc (UD06.L) ETF: Historical Returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
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As of Jul 31, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 4.42%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-48.00%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2009 |
+3.76% |
+109.29%
Aug 1972 - Jul 1973 |
38.06%
341 out of 896 |
-48.91%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2009 |
+0.16% |
+91.24%
Aug 1972 - Jul 1973 |
49.55%
444 out of 896 |
-30.17%
Mar 2014 - Feb 2016 |
+3.52% |
+73.00%
Nov 1972 - Oct 1974 |
28.17%
249 out of 884 |
-31.31%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2010 |
-0.69% |
+53.93%
Oct 1988 - Sep 1990 |
53.17%
470 out of 884 |
-23.44%
Feb 2013 - Jan 2016 |
+3.59% |
+59.73%
Nov 1971 - Oct 1974 |
24.08%
210 out of 872 |
-24.07%
Feb 2013 - Jan 2016 |
-0.34% |
+43.18%
Nov 1971 - Oct 1974 |
52.75%
460 out of 872 |
-18.81%
Mar 2012 - Feb 2016 |
+4.28% |
+48.24%
Dec 1970 - Nov 1974 |
18.26%
157 out of 860 |
-19.77%
Mar 2012 - Feb 2016 |
-0.19% |
+33.19%
Dec 1970 - Nov 1974 |
50.93%
438 out of 860 |
-15.58%
Mar 2011 - Feb 2016 |
+5.26% |
+39.22%
Dec 1969 - Nov 1974 |
15.68%
133 out of 848 |
-16.95%
Mar 2011 - Feb 2016 |
+0.24% |
+27.15%
Oct 1985 - Sep 1990 |
47.52%
403 out of 848 |
-12.12%
May 2011 - Apr 2017 |
+5.86% |
+31.31%
Dec 1968 - Nov 1974 |
12.56%
105 out of 836 |
-13.57%
May 2011 - Apr 2017 |
+0.62% |
+25.35%
Jul 2002 - Jun 2008 |
45.93%
384 out of 836 |
-12.27%
Aug 2008 - Jul 2015 |
+6.31% |
+25.94%
Dec 1967 - Nov 1974 |
12.99%
107 out of 824 |
-14.26%
Aug 2008 - Jul 2015 |
+1.31% |
+20.69%
Feb 1999 - Jan 2006 |
45.75%
377 out of 824 |
-12.22%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2016 |
+6.94% |
+25.75%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1979 |
12.07%
98 out of 812 |
-14.04%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2016 |
+1.35% |
+17.73%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2007 |
45.57%
370 out of 812 |
-11.61%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2017 |
+7.97% |
+25.99%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1980 |
13.50%
108 out of 800 |
-13.49%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2017 |
+1.82% |
+20.49%
Jul 1999 - Jun 2008 |
42.38%
339 out of 800 |
-8.73%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2018 |
+8.45% |
+24.65%
Nov 1970 - Oct 1980 |
14.85%
117 out of 788 |
-10.69%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2018 |
+2.92% |
+17.28%
Jul 1998 - Jun 2008 |
40.48%
319 out of 788 |
-8.99%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2019 |
+9.15% |
+23.20%
Nov 1969 - Oct 1980 |
15.98%
124 out of 776 |
-10.93%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2019 |
+3.82% |
+13.55%
Feb 1986 - Jan 1997 |
38.79%
301 out of 776 |
-9.52%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2020 |
+9.58% |
+20.89%
Nov 1968 - Oct 1980 |
14.53%
111 out of 764 |
-11.33%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2020 |
+3.91% |
+12.49%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2011 |
36.39%
278 out of 764 |
-6.34%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2021 |
+9.81% |
+19.46%
Oct 1977 - Sep 1990 |
12.63%
95 out of 752 |
-8.25%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2021 |
+3.86% |
+13.82%
Jul 1995 - Jun 2008 |
34.04%
256 out of 752 |
-4.58%
May 2006 - Apr 2020 |
+9.71% |
+18.57%
Oct 1976 - Sep 1990 |
11.08%
82 out of 740 |
-6.68%
May 2006 - Apr 2020 |
+3.62% |
+12.13%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2008 |
29.86%
221 out of 740 |
-4.52%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2023 |
+9.88% |
+16.94%
Nov 1976 - Oct 1991 |
8.10%
59 out of 728 |
-7.24%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2023 |
+3.54% |
+11.29%
Jul 1993 - Jun 2008 |
27.34%
199 out of 728 |
-3.91%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2024 |
+10.08% |
+16.37%
Aug 1971 - Jul 1987 |
7.26%
52 out of 716 |
-6.60%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2024 |
+3.56% |
+10.52%
Oct 1988 - Sep 2004 |
25.00%
179 out of 716 |
-3.34%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2025 |
+10.13% |
+16.80%
May 1972 - Apr 1989 |
6.53%
46 out of 704 |
-6.08%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2025 |
+3.29% |
+11.14%
Oct 1988 - Sep 2005 |
21.31%
150 out of 704 |
-0.59%
Aug 2006 - Jul 2024 |
+9.87% |
+18.94%
Oct 1972 - Sep 1990 |
2.46%
17 out of 692 |
-3.39%
Aug 2006 - Jul 2024 |
+3.23% |
+11.57%
Apr 1986 - Mar 2004 |
19.80%
137 out of 692 |
-0.39%
Sep 2005 - Aug 2024 |
+10.00% |
+20.13%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1990 |
1.18%
8 out of 680 |
-3.16%
Sep 2005 - Aug 2024 |
+3.19% |
+11.57%
Apr 1986 - Mar 2005 |
15.44%
105 out of 680 |
+0.51%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2024 |
+9.98% |
+19.56%
Oct 1970 - Sep 1990 |
0.00%
0 out of 668 |
-3.22%
Jun 1950 - May 1970 |
+3.06% |
+11.88%
Jul 1988 - Jun 2008 |
11.83%
79 out of 668 |
+2.58%
May 1995 - Apr 2020 |
+10.05% |
+16.35%
Dec 1971 - Nov 1996 |
0.00%
0 out of 608 |
-0.31%
Nov 1951 - Oct 1976 |
+2.87% |
+11.02%
Jul 1983 - Jun 2008 |
1.15%
7 out of 608 |
+2.35%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2020 |
+10.12% |
+14.88%
Dec 1970 - Nov 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 548 |
-0.24%
Jan 1952 - Dec 1981 |
+4.45% |
+8.95%
Jul 1978 - Jun 2008 |
0.36%
2 out of 548 |
UBS BBG Commodity CMCI SF UCITS hGBP acc (UD06.L) ETF: Historical Returns