When holding the SPDR Bloomberg Barclays International Treasury Bond (BWX) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~32 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 216 months (from April 2008 to March 2026). This negative serie is not closed yet.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
SPDR Bloomberg Barclays International Treasury Bond (BWX) ETF: Historical Returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
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As of Mar 31, 2026, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been -1.18%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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| Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
|---|---|---|---|
|
-26.70%
Oct 2021 - Sep 2022 |
+3.75% |
+26.89%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2003 |
31.65%
119 out of 376 |
|
-32.26%
Oct 2021 - Sep 2022 |
+1.66% |
+23.45%
Jun 2002 - May 2003 |
42.55%
160 out of 376 |
|
-15.69%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2022 |
+3.18% |
+20.71%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2004 |
24.18%
88 out of 364 |
|
-21.20%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2022 |
+1.00% |
+17.91%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2004 |
43.96%
160 out of 364 |
|
-10.23%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023 |
+3.18% |
+16.43%
Jan 2002 - Dec 2004 |
20.74%
73 out of 352 |
|
-15.09%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023 |
+0.66% |
+13.46%
Jan 2002 - Dec 2004 |
38.35%
135 out of 352 |
|
-7.75%
Jan 2021 - Dec 2024 |
+3.30% |
+13.10%
May 2001 - Apr 2005 |
25.59%
87 out of 340 |
|
-12.09%
Jan 2021 - Dec 2024 |
+1.02% |
+10.48%
May 2001 - Apr 2005 |
41.47%
141 out of 340 |
|
-4.85%
Jan 2021 - Dec 2025 |
+3.41% |
+10.77%
May 2000 - Apr 2005 |
25.91%
85 out of 328 |
|
-8.93%
Jan 2021 - Dec 2025 |
+1.04% |
+8.03%
May 2000 - Apr 2005 |
39.94%
131 out of 328 |
|
-4.40%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2022 |
+3.88% |
+10.93%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2008 |
24.37%
77 out of 316 |
|
-7.62%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2022 |
+1.61% |
+7.67%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2008 |
36.71%
116 out of 316 |
|
-3.31%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023 |
+4.30% |
+9.84%
Apr 2001 - Mar 2008 |
20.72%
63 out of 304 |
|
-6.60%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023 |
+1.94% |
+6.86%
Apr 2001 - Mar 2008 |
39.14%
119 out of 304 |
|
-3.14%
Oct 2014 - Sep 2022 |
+3.90% |
+8.60%
Dec 2001 - Nov 2009 |
17.81%
52 out of 292 |
|
-5.79%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2022 |
+1.59% |
+5.90%
Jul 2001 - Jun 2009 |
37.67%
110 out of 292 |
|
-2.93%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2022 |
+3.53% |
+8.62%
Jan 1995 - Dec 2003 |
17.86%
50 out of 280 |
|
-5.51%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2022 |
+1.49% |
+6.10%
Jan 1995 - Dec 2003 |
36.07%
101 out of 280 |
|
-2.87%
Oct 2012 - Sep 2022 |
+3.15% |
+8.92%
Jan 1995 - Dec 2004 |
18.28%
49 out of 268 |
|
-5.26%
Oct 2012 - Sep 2022 |
+1.34% |
+6.28%
Jan 1995 - Dec 2004 |
30.60%
82 out of 268 |
|
-2.40%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023 |
+2.89% |
+8.15%
May 1994 - Apr 2005 |
19.14%
49 out of 256 |
|
-4.89%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023 |
+1.04% |
+5.48%
May 1994 - Apr 2005 |
28.52%
73 out of 256 |
|
-1.94%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2023 |
+3.05% |
+7.47%
Dec 1994 - Nov 2006 |
18.85%
46 out of 244 |
|
-4.42%
Jan 2013 - Dec 2024 |
+1.13% |
+4.83%
Dec 1994 - Nov 2006 |
27.46%
67 out of 244 |
|
-1.64%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023 |
+3.31% |
+7.50%
Mar 1995 - Feb 2008 |
19.83%
46 out of 232 |
|
-4.18%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023 |
+1.24% |
+4.70%
Mar 1995 - Feb 2008 |
23.28%
54 out of 232 |
|
-1.15%
Nov 2009 - Oct 2023 |
+3.23% |
+7.64%
Apr 1994 - Mar 2008 |
17.27%
38 out of 220 |
|
-3.60%
Nov 2009 - Oct 2023 |
+1.14% |
+4.82%
Apr 1994 - Mar 2008 |
25.91%
57 out of 220 |
|
-0.74%
Dec 2009 - Nov 2024 |
+4.07% |
+7.48%
Dec 1994 - Nov 2009 |
14.42%
30 out of 208 |
|
-3.24%
Apr 2011 - Mar 2026 |
+1.96% |
+4.85%
Dec 1994 - Nov 2009 |
25.48%
53 out of 208 |
|
-0.46%
Dec 2009 - Nov 2025 |
+4.23% |
+7.09%
Nov 1994 - Oct 2010 |
7.65%
15 out of 196 |
|
-2.94%
Dec 2009 - Nov 2025 |
+1.99% |
+4.56%
Nov 1994 - Oct 2010 |
26.02%
51 out of 196 |
|
-0.30%
Apr 2008 - Mar 2025 |
+4.06% |
+7.05%
Sep 1994 - Aug 2011 |
1.63%
3 out of 184 |
|
-2.64%
Apr 2008 - Mar 2025 |
+1.88% |
+4.46%
Sep 1994 - Aug 2011 |
28.80%
53 out of 184 |
|
-0.14%
Apr 2008 - Mar 2026 |
+4.16% |
+6.70%
Oct 1994 - Sep 2012 |
0.58%
1 out of 172 |
|
-2.54%
Apr 2008 - Mar 2026 |
+1.98% |
+4.14%
Oct 1994 - Sep 2012 |
29.65%
51 out of 172 |
|
+0.41%
May 2005 - Apr 2024 |
+4.06% |
+6.34%
May 1994 - Apr 2013 |
0.00%
0 out of 160 |
|
-2.09%
May 2005 - Apr 2024 |
+1.87% |
+3.83%
May 1994 - Apr 2013 |
30.00%
48 out of 160 |
|
+0.41%
Jan 2005 - Dec 2024 |
+4.02% |
+6.17%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2014 |
0.00%
0 out of 148 |
|
-2.09%
Jan 2005 - Dec 2024 |
+1.81% |
+3.69%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2014 |
31.08%
46 out of 148 |
|
+2.01%
Nov 1998 - Oct 2023 |
+2.77% |
+4.83%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2019 |
0.00%
0 out of 88 |
|
-0.52%
Nov 1998 - Oct 2023 |
+0.27% |
+2.59%
Sep 1994 - Aug 2019 |
23.86%
21 out of 88 |
|
+2.68%
Apr 1996 - Mar 2026 |
+3.11% |
+3.47%
Oct 1994 - Sep 2024 |
0.00%
0 out of 28 |
|
+0.13%
Apr 1996 - Mar 2026 |
+0.56% |
+0.93%
Oct 1994 - Sep 2024 |
0.00%
0 out of 28 |
SPDR Bloomberg Barclays International Treasury Bond (BWX) ETF: Historical Returns

