SPDR S&P 500 (SPY): Rolling Returns

Data Source: from January 1871 to March 2024 (~153 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 March 2024

Holding the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?

Considering all the available data source (~153 years), the longest period with a negative return lasted 187 months (from September 1929 to March 1945).

This means that every rolling period of 188 months or above has always granted a positive return.

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) ETF: Historical Returns page.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Considering all 10-year rolling periods, is there a relationship between past and future returns, at a given date?

In the following chart, we show how past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis) are related.

Neighboring data is aggregated and occurrences are indicated. It is possible to zoom by clicking or drawing the desired area

SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Updated to March 2024

The annualized return of the last 10 years has been 12.85% (updated at Mar 31, 2024).

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 April 1994 - 31 March 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 31 March 2024 (~153 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.66% +160.57%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933 		-67.84%
Jul 1931 - Jun 1932 		27.19%
497 out of 1828
US Inflation Adjusted +8.41% +179.03%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933 		-64.30%
Jul 1931 - Jun 1932 		30.63%
560 out of 1828
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +9.98% +55.64%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1934 		-54.64%
Jun 1930 - May 1932 		19.99%
363 out of 1816
US Inflation Adjusted +7.34% +56.79%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1934 		-49.63%
Jun 1930 - May 1932 		26.21%
476 out of 1816
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +9.89% +42.43%
Mar 1933 - Feb 1936 		-42.65%
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932 		16.02%
289 out of 1804
US Inflation Adjusted +7.37% +40.21%
Sep 1926 - Aug 1929 		-38.10%
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932 		22.17%
400 out of 1804
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +9.46% +41.06%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1936 		-27.87%
Jun 1928 - May 1932 		13.34%
239 out of 1792
US Inflation Adjusted +7.31% +40.55%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1936 		-23.65%
Jun 1928 - May 1932 		20.20%
362 out of 1792
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +9.77% +35.15%
Jun 1932 - May 1937 		-17.97%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1934 		10.73%
191 out of 1780
US Inflation Adjusted +7.23% +33.81%
Jun 1932 - May 1937 		-13.67%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1934 		19.49%
347 out of 1780
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +9.51% +30.77%
Sep 1923 - Aug 1929 		-12.68%
Apr 1929 - Mar 1935 		6.33%
112 out of 1768
US Inflation Adjusted +7.13% +30.52%
Sep 1923 - Aug 1929 		-10.78%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1974 		16.23%
287 out of 1768
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +9.07% +25.75%
Feb 1922 - Jan 1929 		-7.76%
Jul 1925 - Jun 1932 		3.87%
68 out of 1756
US Inflation Adjusted +6.99% +25.54%
Feb 1922 - Jan 1929 		-8.70%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1974 		14.18%
249 out of 1756
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.69% +28.16%
Sep 1921 - Aug 1929 		-8.26%
Apr 1930 - Mar 1938 		2.87%
50 out of 1744
US Inflation Adjusted +6.75% +28.53%
Sep 1921 - Aug 1929 		-6.82%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009 		12.61%
220 out of 1744
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.63% +22.86%
Sep 1920 - Aug 1929 		-7.16%
Apr 1929 - Mar 1938 		2.66%
46 out of 1732
US Inflation Adjusted +7.04% +25.07%
Sep 1920 - Aug 1929 		-7.46%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2009 		12.47%
216 out of 1732
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.59% +21.28%
Jun 1949 - May 1959 		-5.38%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1939 		3.55%
61 out of 1720
US Inflation Adjusted +6.88% +20.41%
Sep 1919 - Aug 1929 		-5.89%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009 		11.63%
200 out of 1720
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.51% +20.03%
Sep 1918 - Aug 1929 		-4.92%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1940 		2.52%
43 out of 1708
US Inflation Adjusted +7.06% +18.77%
Sep 1918 - Aug 1929 		-4.00%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009 		13.35%
228 out of 1708
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.59% +19.33%
Jun 1949 - May 1961 		-4.40%
May 1930 - Apr 1942 		1.71%
29 out of 1696
US Inflation Adjusted +7.03% +17.15%
Jun 1949 - May 1961 		-3.96%
May 1930 - Apr 1942 		12.03%
204 out of 1696
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 13 Years (156 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.49% +19.73%
Aug 1942 - Jul 1955 		-4.60%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1942 		1.60%
27 out of 1684
US Inflation Adjusted +6.90% +16.49%
Dec 1948 - Nov 1961 		-4.26%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1942 		9.09%
153 out of 1684
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 14 Years (168 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.50% +20.46%
May 1942 - Apr 1956 		-1.72%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1943 		1.20%
20 out of 1672
US Inflation Adjusted +6.94% +16.11%
May 1942 - Apr 1956 		-2.76%
Aug 1968 - Jul 1982 		6.52%
109 out of 1672
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 15 Years (180 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.34% +19.24%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997 		-0.72%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1944 		0.24%
4 out of 1660
US Inflation Adjusted +6.83% +15.49%
Jul 1949 - Jun 1964 		-2.46%
Aug 1967 - Jul 1982 		5.42%
90 out of 1660
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 16 Years (192 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.23% +19.22%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1998 		+0.80%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1945 		0.00%
0 out of 1648
US Inflation Adjusted +6.78% +15.44%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1998 		-1.64%
Mar 1966 - Feb 1982 		3.22%
53 out of 1648
16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 17 Years (204 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.12% +19.34%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999 		+1.08%
Oct 1929 - Sep 1946 		0.00%
0 out of 1636
US Inflation Adjusted +6.59% +15.63%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999 		-1.51%
Aug 1965 - Jul 1982 		1.28%
21 out of 1636
17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 18 Years (216 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.14% +18.81%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2000 		+1.13%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1947 		0.00%
0 out of 1624
US Inflation Adjusted +6.57% +14.98%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2000 		-1.23%
Aug 1964 - Jul 1982 		1.35%
22 out of 1624
18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 19 Years (228 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.02% +17.88%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1999 		+1.59%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1948 		0.00%
0 out of 1612
US Inflation Adjusted +6.54% +13.88%
May 1942 - Apr 1961 		-0.83%
Jul 1901 - Jun 1920 		0.93%
15 out of 1612
19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 20 Years (240 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.97% +17.90%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000 		+1.60%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1949 		0.00%
0 out of 1600
US Inflation Adjusted +6.62% +13.52%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000 		-0.58%
Jul 1901 - Jun 1921 		0.25%
4 out of 1600
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) ETF: Historical Returns page.