Last Update: 31 March 2023

Holding a position in the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?

Considering all 6 years rolling periods, you would have obtained a positive returns 93.62% of times

All the returns are calculated over the available historical serie, starting from January 1871 until March 2023.

In order to have complete information about the ETF, please refer to the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) ETF: historical returns page.

Rolling Returns

SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) ETF: annualized rolling and average returns

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Rolling
Period
Return (*) Negative
Periods
Average (%) Best (%) Worst (%)
1 Year
10.73 160.57
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933
-67.84
Jul 1931 - Jun 1932
27.37%
2 Years
9.90 55.64
Jul 1932 - Jun 1934
-54.64
Jun 1930 - May 1932
20.07%
3 Years
9.55 42.43
Mar 1933 - Feb 1936
-42.65
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932
16.13%
4 Years
9.40 41.06
Jul 1932 - Jun 1936
-27.87
Jun 1928 - May 1932
13.43%
5 Years
9.31 35.15
Jun 1932 - May 1937
-17.97
Sep 1929 - Aug 1934
10.80%
6 Years
9.24 30.77
Sep 1923 - Aug 1929
-12.68
Apr 1929 - Mar 1935
6.38%
7 Years
9.22 25.75
Feb 1922 - Jan 1929
-7.76
Jul 1925 - Jun 1932
3.90%
8 Years
9.21 28.16
Sep 1921 - Aug 1929
-8.26
Apr 1930 - Mar 1938
2.89%
9 Years
9.20 22.86
Sep 1920 - Aug 1929
-7.16
Apr 1929 - Mar 1938
2.67%
10 Years
9.17 21.28
Jun 1949 - May 1959
-5.38
Sep 1929 - Aug 1939
3.57%
11 Years
9.13 20.03
Sep 1918 - Aug 1929
-4.92
Sep 1929 - Aug 1940
2.54%
12 Years
9.10 19.33
Jun 1949 - May 1961
-4.40
May 1930 - Apr 1942
1.72%
13 Years
9.07 19.73
Aug 1942 - Jul 1955
-4.60
Sep 1929 - Aug 1942
1.61%
14 Years
9.05 20.46
May 1942 - Apr 1956
-1.72
Sep 1929 - Aug 1943
1.20%
15 Years
9.05 19.24
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997
-0.72
Sep 1929 - Aug 1944
0.24%
(*) Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+10.73% +160.57%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933
-67.84%
Jul 1931 - Jun 1932
27.37%
497 out of 1816
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns over time
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.90% +55.64%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1934
-54.64%
Jun 1930 - May 1932
20.07%
362 out of 1804
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.55% +42.43%
Mar 1933 - Feb 1936
-42.65%
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932
16.13%
289 out of 1792
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.40% +41.06%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1936
-27.87%
Jun 1928 - May 1932
13.43%
239 out of 1780
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.31% +35.15%
Jun 1932 - May 1937
-17.97%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1934
10.80%
191 out of 1768
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.24% +30.77%
Sep 1923 - Aug 1929
-12.68%
Apr 1929 - Mar 1935
6.38%
112 out of 1756
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.22% +25.75%
Feb 1922 - Jan 1929
-7.76%
Jul 1925 - Jun 1932
3.90%
68 out of 1744
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.21% +28.16%
Sep 1921 - Aug 1929
-8.26%
Apr 1930 - Mar 1938
2.89%
50 out of 1732
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.20% +22.86%
Sep 1920 - Aug 1929
-7.16%
Apr 1929 - Mar 1938
2.67%
46 out of 1720
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.17% +21.28%
Jun 1949 - May 1959
-5.38%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1939
3.57%
61 out of 1708
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.13% +20.03%
Sep 1918 - Aug 1929
-4.92%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1940
2.54%
43 out of 1696
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.10% +19.33%
Jun 1949 - May 1961
-4.40%
May 1930 - Apr 1942
1.72%
29 out of 1684
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 13 Years (156 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.07% +19.73%
Aug 1942 - Jul 1955
-4.60%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1942
1.61%
27 out of 1672
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 14 Years (168 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.05% +20.46%
May 1942 - Apr 1956
-1.72%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1943
1.20%
20 out of 1660
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 15 Years (180 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.05% +19.24%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997
-0.72%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1944
0.24%
4 out of 1648
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

In order to have complete information about the ETF, please refer to the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) ETF: historical returns page.

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