When holding the iShares USD Treasury Bond 20+yr EUR Hedged (IUSV.DE) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~76 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 200 months (from February 1965 to September 1981).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 201 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
iShares USD Treasury Bond 20+yr EUR Hedged (IUSV.DE) ETF: Historical Returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
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As of Mar 31, 2026, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been -3.10%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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| Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
|---|---|---|---|
|
-35.02%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022 |
+3.98% |
+63.37%
Apr 1985 - Mar 1986 |
30.64%
277 out of 904 |
|
-41.26%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022 |
+1.57% |
+63.19%
Apr 1985 - Mar 1986 |
43.36%
392 out of 904 |
|
-24.34%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023 |
+4.81% |
+44.96%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1986 |
22.65%
202 out of 892 |
|
-29.09%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023 |
+2.68% |
+43.51%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1986 |
34.53%
308 out of 892 |
|
-18.49%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023 |
+5.13% |
+26.48%
Jun 1984 - May 1987 |
15.80%
139 out of 880 |
|
-22.96%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023 |
+2.98% |
+25.49%
Jun 1984 - May 1987 |
29.20%
257 out of 880 |
|
-14.14%
May 2020 - Apr 2024 |
+4.97% |
+25.87%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986 |
13.36%
116 out of 868 |
|
-17.89%
May 2020 - Apr 2024 |
+2.65% |
+23.58%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986 |
27.76%
241 out of 868 |
|
-11.73%
Aug 2020 - Jul 2025 |
+5.05% |
+23.76%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1986 |
12.73%
109 out of 856 |
|
-15.25%
Aug 2020 - Jul 2025 |
+2.53% |
+20.93%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1986 |
30.26%
259 out of 856 |
|
-9.16%
Apr 2020 - Mar 2026 |
+5.04% |
+17.65%
Mar 1981 - Feb 1987 |
12.68%
107 out of 844 |
|
-12.28%
Apr 2020 - Mar 2026 |
+2.27% |
+15.27%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1987 |
31.28%
264 out of 844 |
|
-5.64%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2023 |
+5.38% |
+16.60%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1988 |
10.70%
89 out of 832 |
|
-8.44%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2023 |
+2.70% |
+14.45%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1988 |
29.45%
245 out of 832 |
|
-4.30%
Jul 2016 - Jun 2024 |
+5.34% |
+15.92%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1989 |
8.66%
71 out of 820 |
|
-7.05%
Aug 2016 - Jul 2024 |
+3.11% |
+13.65%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1989 |
29.02%
238 out of 820 |
|
-4.44%
Aug 2016 - Jul 2025 |
+5.53% |
+16.93%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1993 |
6.81%
55 out of 808 |
|
-7.10%
Aug 2016 - Jul 2025 |
+3.42% |
+14.29%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1993 |
27.60%
223 out of 808 |
|
-3.50%
Feb 2015 - Jan 2025 |
+5.98% |
+15.30%
Jun 1984 - May 1994 |
5.28%
42 out of 796 |
|
-5.93%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1981 |
+3.63% |
+12.62%
Jun 1984 - May 1994 |
31.16%
248 out of 796 |
|
-3.08%
Feb 2015 - Jan 2026 |
+5.95% |
+15.50%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1993 |
4.46%
35 out of 784 |
|
-5.42%
Feb 2015 - Jan 2026 |
+3.85% |
+12.82%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1993 |
30.10%
236 out of 784 |
|
-1.59%
Jun 2012 - May 2024 |
+6.03% |
+16.21%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993 |
4.02%
31 out of 772 |
|
-3.97%
Sep 1969 - Aug 1981 |
+3.74% |
+13.27%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993 |
30.57%
236 out of 772 |
|
-1.70%
Aug 2012 - Jul 2025 |
+6.26% |
+14.38%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1995 |
2.50%
19 out of 760 |
|
-4.66%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1981 |
+3.49% |
+11.66%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1995 |
30.79%
234 out of 760 |
|
-0.88%
Feb 2012 - Jan 2026 |
+6.27% |
+14.71%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1995 |
1.07%
8 out of 748 |
|
-4.38%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1981 |
+3.59% |
+11.79%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1995 |
30.48%
228 out of 748 |
|
-0.00%
Oct 1966 - Sep 1981 |
+6.24% |
+13.76%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1996 |
0.14%
1 out of 736 |
|
-4.28%
Oct 1966 - Sep 1981 |
+3.73% |
+10.91%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1996 |
28.53%
210 out of 736 |
|
-0.07%
Oct 1965 - Sep 1981 |
+6.42% |
+13.60%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1997 |
0.14%
1 out of 724 |
|
-4.26%
Oct 1965 - Sep 1981 |
+3.75% |
+10.82%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1997 |
27.49%
199 out of 724 |
|
+0.07%
Oct 1964 - Sep 1981 |
+6.46% |
+13.95%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 712 |
|
-4.09%
Oct 1964 - Sep 1981 |
+4.08% |
+11.26%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1998 |
28.37%
202 out of 712 |
|
+0.24%
Oct 1963 - Sep 1981 |
+6.51% |
+12.50%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1999 |
0.00%
0 out of 700 |
|
-3.84%
Oct 1963 - Sep 1981 |
+4.05% |
+9.92%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1999 |
23.71%
166 out of 700 |
|
+0.37%
Oct 1962 - Sep 1981 |
+6.46% |
+12.51%
Jun 1984 - May 2003 |
0.00%
0 out of 688 |
|
-3.64%
Oct 1962 - Sep 1981 |
+4.19% |
+10.13%
Jun 1984 - May 2003 |
22.97%
158 out of 688 |
|
+0.60%
Oct 1961 - Sep 1981 |
+6.64% |
+12.25%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 676 |
|
-3.32%
Oct 1961 - Sep 1981 |
+4.07% |
+9.68%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2001 |
22.04%
149 out of 676 |
|
+1.16%
Oct 1956 - Sep 1981 |
+7.02% |
+11.07%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2006 |
0.00%
0 out of 616 |
|
-2.32%
Oct 1956 - Sep 1981 |
+4.07% |
+8.57%
Jan 1984 - Dec 2008 |
15.58%
96 out of 616 |
|
+1.50%
Oct 1951 - Sep 1981 |
+7.37% |
+11.08%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2011 |
0.00%
0 out of 556 |
|
-1.57%
Oct 1951 - Sep 1981 |
+4.06% |
+8.62%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2011 |
12.77%
71 out of 556 |
iShares USD Treasury Bond 20+yr EUR Hedged (IUSV.DE) ETF: Historical Returns

