When holding the iShares Physical Silver (SSLN.L) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~112 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 513 months (from February 1980 to October 2022).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 514 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

ISHARES PHYSICAL SILVER (SSLN.L) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 July 1996 - 30 June 2026 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1915 - 30 June 2026 (~112 years)
30 Years
(1996/07 - 2026/06)
All Data
(1915/01 - 2026/06)

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As of Jun 30, 2026, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 8.81%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

ISHARES PHYSICAL SILVER (SSLN.L) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 July 1996 - 30 June 2026 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1915 - 30 June 2026 (~112 years)
30 Years
(1996/07 - 2026/06)
All Data
(1915/01 - 2026/06)
UK Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

ISHARES PHYSICAL SILVER (SSLN.L) ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1915 - 30 June 2026 (~112 years)
Over Time
Histogram
UK Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-64.42%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1981
+1.41% +390.56%
Jan 1979 - Dec 1979
41.60%
552 out of 1327
-68.53%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1981
-1.21% +318.43%
Jan 1979 - Dec 1979
54.11%
718 out of 1327
-47.48%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1982
+2.65% +147.72%
Feb 1978 - Jan 1980
39.24%
516 out of 1315
-53.00%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1982
-0.43% +117.73%
Feb 1978 - Jan 1980
51.71%
680 out of 1315
-27.35%
May 2011 - Apr 2014
+3.82% +81.69%
Feb 1977 - Jan 1980
37.84%
493 out of 1303
-29.76%
Jan 1980 - Dec 1982
-0.05% +61.54%
Feb 1977 - Jan 1980
50.19%
654 out of 1303
-23.13%
May 2011 - Apr 2015
+4.21% +67.51%
Feb 1976 - Jan 1980
35.17%
454 out of 1291
-27.07%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1984
+0.08% +47.61%
Feb 1976 - Jan 1980
49.81%
643 out of 1291
-19.44%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1985
+3.83% +54.94%
Feb 1975 - Jan 1980
32.06%
410 out of 1279
-25.28%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1985
+0.61% +34.27%
Feb 1975 - Jan 1980
47.69%
610 out of 1279
-20.61%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1986
+3.77% +47.53%
Jan 1974 - Dec 1979
29.04%
368 out of 1267
-26.05%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1986
+0.73% +36.63%
May 2005 - Apr 2011
46.88%
594 out of 1267
-19.03%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1987
+4.29% +51.64%
Feb 1973 - Jan 1980
29.40%
369 out of 1255
-24.23%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1987
+0.81% +31.49%
May 2004 - Apr 2011
46.29%
581 out of 1255
-17.49%
Feb 1983 - Jan 1991
+4.29% +51.45%
Mar 1972 - Feb 1980
28.32%
352 out of 1243
-21.87%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1988
+0.78% +32.11%
Jan 1972 - Dec 1979
45.53%
566 out of 1243
-15.71%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1989
+3.97% +42.17%
Mar 1971 - Feb 1980
26.40%
325 out of 1231
-20.76%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1989
+0.81% +24.89%
Feb 1971 - Jan 1980
45.74%
563 out of 1231
-14.93%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1990
+4.24% +34.74%
Mar 1970 - Feb 1980
27.48%
335 out of 1219
-19.91%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1990
+0.53% +22.03%
May 2001 - Apr 2011
44.87%
547 out of 1219
-17.12%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1991
+4.16% +31.54%
Mar 1969 - Feb 1980
26.26%
317 out of 1207
-22.04%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1991
+0.65% +19.11%
May 2000 - Apr 2011
43.25%
522 out of 1207
-14.79%
Jan 1980 - Dec 1991
+4.39% +27.80%
Feb 1968 - Jan 1980
26.69%
319 out of 1195
-20.11%
Jan 1980 - Dec 1991
+0.74% +16.84%
May 1999 - Apr 2011
41.67%
498 out of 1195
-13.12%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1993
+4.79% +30.89%
Feb 1967 - Jan 1980
27.73%
328 out of 1183
-18.11%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1993
+0.93% +17.72%
Feb 1967 - Jan 1980
38.88%
460 out of 1183
-10.19%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1994
+5.25% +28.55%
Mar 1966 - Feb 1980
26.73%
313 out of 1171
-15.14%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1994
+1.69% +16.16%
Feb 1966 - Jan 1980
38.00%
445 out of 1171
-10.62%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1995
+5.96% +26.40%
Mar 1965 - Feb 1980
27.09%
314 out of 1159
-15.31%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1995
+2.07% +14.67%
Feb 1965 - Jan 1980
37.79%
438 out of 1159
-8.69%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1996
+6.16% +24.58%
Mar 1964 - Feb 1980
25.63%
294 out of 1147
-13.51%
Jan 1980 - Dec 1995
+2.08% +13.40%
Feb 1964 - Jan 1980
36.70%
421 out of 1147
-9.16%
Jan 1980 - Dec 1996
+6.33% +23.70%
Jan 1963 - Dec 1979
23.26%
264 out of 1135
-13.82%
Jan 1980 - Dec 1996
+1.95% +13.24%
Jan 1963 - Dec 1979
36.30%
412 out of 1135
-7.45%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1998
+6.50% +23.35%
Jan 1962 - Dec 1979
21.99%
247 out of 1123
-11.89%
Jan 1980 - Dec 1997
+1.67% +13.31%
Jan 1962 - Dec 1979
36.78%
413 out of 1123
-7.94%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1999
+6.57% +22.47%
Mar 1961 - Feb 1980
19.71%
219 out of 1111
-12.20%
Jan 1980 - Dec 1998
+1.56% +12.59%
Feb 1961 - Jan 1980
38.34%
426 out of 1111
-7.55%
Mar 1980 - Feb 2000
+6.33% +21.32%
Mar 1960 - Feb 1980
18.56%
204 out of 1099
-11.58%
Mar 1980 - Feb 2000
+1.47% +11.88%
Feb 1960 - Jan 1980
36.67%
403 out of 1099
-5.67%
Feb 1980 - Jan 2005
+5.97% +16.84%
Mar 1955 - Feb 1980
9.91%
103 out of 1039
-9.27%
Feb 1980 - Jan 2005
+1.36% +10.12%
Feb 2001 - Jan 2026
36.48%
379 out of 1039
-1.44%
Feb 1980 - Jan 2010
+5.47% +14.56%
Mar 1950 - Feb 1980
3.98%
39 out of 979
-5.00%
Feb 1980 - Jan 2010
+0.68% +7.68%
Feb 1996 - Jan 2026
36.87%
361 out of 979
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