iShares $ High Yield Corp Bond UCITS USD (Dist) (SHYU.L): Rolling Returns

Simulation Settings
Category:
Period: February 1919 - July 2025 (~107 years)
Initial Amount: 1ÂŁ
Currency: GBP
Inflation: UK
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When holding the iShares $ High Yield Corp Bond UCITS USD (Dist) (SHYU.L) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~107 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 99 months (from September 2000 to November 2008).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 100 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

ISHARES $ HIGH YIELD CORP BOND UCITS USD (DIST) (SHYU.L) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 August 1995 - 31 July 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 February 1919 - 31 July 2025 (~107 years)
30 Years
(1995/08 - 2025/07)
All Data
(1919/02 - 2025/07)

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As of Jul 31, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 6.33%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

ISHARES $ HIGH YIELD CORP BOND UCITS USD (DIST) (SHYU.L) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 August 1995 - 31 July 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 February 1919 - 31 July 2025 (~107 years)
30 Years
(1995/08 - 2025/07)
All Data
(1919/02 - 2025/07)
UK Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

ISHARES $ HIGH YIELD CORP BOND UCITS USD (DIST) (SHYU.L) ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 February 1919 - 31 July 2025 (~107 years)
Over Time
Histogram
UK Inflation Adjusted:

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Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-26.28%
Nov 1989 - Oct 1990
+7.09% +63.60%
Feb 1982 - Jan 1983
16.02%
203 out of 1267
-31.82%
Nov 1989 - Oct 1990
+4.30% +55.92%
Feb 1982 - Jan 1983
32.91%
417 out of 1267
-8.00%
Feb 1989 - Jan 1991
+6.92% +49.53%
Feb 1981 - Jan 1983
7.57%
95 out of 1255
-18.96%
Oct 1978 - Sep 1980
+4.09% +39.00%
Apr 1981 - Mar 1983
26.53%
333 out of 1255
-5.37%
Oct 1977 - Sep 1980
+7.20% +40.60%
Feb 1981 - Jan 1984
4.18%
52 out of 1243
-16.49%
Oct 1977 - Sep 1980
+3.94% +33.33%
Feb 1982 - Jan 1985
23.01%
286 out of 1243
-5.52%
Nov 1986 - Oct 1990
+7.59% +39.18%
Feb 1981 - Jan 1985
1.71%
21 out of 1231
-15.21%
Nov 1976 - Oct 1980
+3.78% +30.41%
Feb 1981 - Jan 1985
18.60%
229 out of 1231
-1.33%
Feb 1986 - Jan 1991
+7.87% +32.48%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1985
0.33%
4 out of 1219
-9.36%
Nov 1976 - Oct 1981
+4.08% +22.87%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1985
19.11%
233 out of 1219
-1.90%
Feb 1985 - Jan 1991
+8.21% +27.05%
Nov 1980 - Oct 1986
0.50%
6 out of 1207
-6.85%
Mar 1974 - Feb 1980
+4.12% +19.71%
Nov 1980 - Oct 1986
15.08%
182 out of 1207
-0.69%
Dec 2001 - Nov 2008
+8.27% +22.51%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1987
0.08%
1 out of 1195
-7.31%
Jan 1974 - Dec 1980
+4.09% +14.63%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1987
11.38%
136 out of 1195
+0.18%
Dec 2000 - Nov 2008
+8.25% +19.99%
Apr 1975 - Mar 1983
0.00%
0 out of 1183
-6.49%
Jan 1973 - Dec 1980
+4.22% +12.61%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1988
8.96%
106 out of 1183
+1.12%
Dec 1999 - Nov 2008
+8.22% +20.10%
Mar 1976 - Feb 1985
0.00%
0 out of 1171
-4.59%
Nov 1971 - Oct 1980
+4.17% +12.31%
Sep 1980 - Aug 1989
7.77%
91 out of 1171
+1.49%
Dec 1998 - Nov 2008
+8.34% +21.98%
Mar 1975 - Feb 1985
0.00%
0 out of 1159
-3.94%
Feb 1971 - Jan 1981
+4.01% +11.97%
Aug 1921 - Jul 1931
7.77%
90 out of 1159
+2.21%
Dec 1997 - Nov 2008
+8.52% +18.87%
Mar 1975 - Feb 1986
0.00%
0 out of 1147
-3.99%
Nov 1969 - Oct 1980
+3.97% +12.03%
Aug 1920 - Jul 1931
6.97%
80 out of 1147
+2.93%
Dec 1996 - Nov 2008
+8.45% +18.33%
Mar 1973 - Feb 1985
0.00%
0 out of 1135
-4.08%
Nov 1968 - Oct 1980
+3.67% +11.90%
Mar 1920 - Feb 1932
5.73%
65 out of 1135
+2.73%
Dec 1995 - Nov 2008
+8.46% +18.24%
Mar 1972 - Feb 1985
0.00%
0 out of 1123
-3.57%
Feb 1968 - Jan 1981
+3.83% +11.71%
Mar 1919 - Feb 1932
4.10%
46 out of 1123
+3.67%
Mar 1994 - Feb 2008
+8.32% +17.22%
Mar 1971 - Feb 1985
0.00%
0 out of 1111
-2.33%
Feb 1967 - Jan 1981
+3.79% +11.16%
Jun 1920 - May 1934
4.41%
49 out of 1111
+3.19%
Dec 1993 - Nov 2008
+8.22% +16.69%
Mar 1970 - Feb 1985
0.00%
0 out of 1099
-2.50%
Nov 1965 - Oct 1980
+4.01% +11.38%
Mar 1921 - Feb 1936
3.64%
40 out of 1099
+4.09%
Jan 1951 - Dec 1966
+8.26% +15.67%
Nov 1970 - Oct 1986
0.00%
0 out of 1087
-2.34%
Nov 1964 - Oct 1980
+4.01% +11.35%
Mar 1920 - Feb 1936
3.50%
38 out of 1087
+4.24%
Feb 1950 - Jan 1967
+8.21% +14.94%
Mar 1968 - Feb 1985
0.00%
0 out of 1075
-2.09%
Nov 1963 - Oct 1980
+4.02% +11.24%
Mar 1919 - Feb 1936
3.44%
37 out of 1075
+4.77%
Sep 1952 - Aug 1970
+8.29% +15.40%
Mar 1975 - Feb 1993
0.00%
0 out of 1063
-1.67%
Nov 1962 - Oct 1980
+3.87% +10.94%
Mar 1919 - Feb 1937
3.48%
37 out of 1063
+4.65%
Feb 1951 - Jan 1970
+8.45% +15.07%
Mar 1975 - Feb 1994
0.00%
0 out of 1051
-1.38%
Nov 1961 - Oct 1980
+3.87% +10.73%
Aug 1920 - Jul 1939
3.24%
34 out of 1051
+4.62%
Sep 1950 - Aug 1970
+8.59% +14.11%
Jul 1973 - Jun 1993
0.00%
0 out of 1039
-1.20%
Nov 1960 - Oct 1980
+3.82% +10.61%
Apr 1919 - Mar 1939
2.89%
30 out of 1039
+5.16%
Mar 1950 - Feb 1975
+8.48% +13.08%
Feb 1971 - Jan 1996
0.00%
0 out of 979
-0.81%
Nov 1955 - Oct 1980
+3.79% +8.99%
Mar 1919 - Feb 1944
2.66%
26 out of 979
+5.96%
Nov 1993 - Oct 2023
+8.55% +12.32%
Sep 1970 - Aug 2000
0.00%
0 out of 919
-0.97%
Nov 1950 - Oct 1980
+3.83% +8.58%
Feb 1920 - Jan 1950
2.50%
23 out of 919
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