iShares Gold Trust (IAU): Rolling Returns

Data Source: from January 1972 to March 2024 (~52 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 March 2024

Holding the iShares Gold Trust (IAU) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?

Considering all the available data source (~52 years), the longest period with a negative return lasted 329 months (from February 1980 to June 2007).

This means that every rolling period of 330 months or above has always granted a positive return.

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the iShares Gold Trust (IAU) ETF: Historical Returns page.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Considering all 10-year rolling periods, is there a relationship between past and future returns, at a given date?

In the following chart, we show how past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis) are related.

Neighboring data is aggregated and occurrences are indicated. It is possible to zoom by clicking or drawing the desired area

ISHARES GOLD TRUST (IAU) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Updated to March 2024

The annualized return of the last 10 years has been 5.38% (updated at Mar 31, 2024).

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

ISHARES GOLD TRUST (IAU) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 April 1994 - 31 March 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1972 - 31 March 2024 (~52 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +4.48% +179.42%
Feb 1979 - Jan 1980 		-37.71%
Apr 1981 - Mar 1982 		40.91%
252 out of 616
US Inflation Adjusted +0.90% +145.39%
Feb 1979 - Jan 1980 		-42.05%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1981 		47.40%
292 out of 616
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +4.16% +92.76%
Feb 1978 - Jan 1980 		-30.30%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1982 		39.40%
238 out of 604
US Inflation Adjusted +0.98% +75.99%
Apr 1972 - Mar 1974 		-35.72%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1982 		47.85%
289 out of 604
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +3.31% +70.26%
Feb 1977 - Jan 1980 		-15.32%
Nov 1980 - Oct 1983 		36.15%
214 out of 592
US Inflation Adjusted -0.14% +54.87%
Feb 1977 - Jan 1980 		-20.23%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1983 		50.84%
301 out of 592
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +4.34% +56.96%
Sep 1976 - Aug 1980 		-15.26%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1984 		31.21%
181 out of 580
US Inflation Adjusted +0.70% +42.99%
Sep 1976 - Aug 1980 		-19.83%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1984 		46.55%
270 out of 580
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +4.63% +36.39%
Oct 1975 - Sep 1980 		-14.69%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1985 		32.39%
184 out of 568
US Inflation Adjusted +1.13% +25.16%
Oct 1975 - Sep 1980 		-19.61%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1985 		47.89%
272 out of 568
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +3.83% +30.45%
Feb 1974 - Jan 1980 		-10.02%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1986 		34.71%
193 out of 556
US Inflation Adjusted +0.75% +23.52%
Sep 2005 - Aug 2011 		-14.86%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1986 		47.84%
266 out of 556
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +3.37% +38.74%
Feb 1973 - Jan 1980 		-6.75%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1987 		34.74%
189 out of 544
US Inflation Adjusted +0.37% +27.30%
Feb 1973 - Jan 1980 		-11.37%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1987 		49.08%
267 out of 544
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +3.29% +38.89%
Feb 1972 - Jan 1980 		-6.28%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1988 		33.83%
180 out of 532
US Inflation Adjusted +0.66% +28.24%
Feb 1972 - Jan 1980 		-10.34%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1988 		46.24%
246 out of 532
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +3.04% +33.58%
Jan 1972 - Dec 1980 		-6.43%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1989 		29.23%
152 out of 520
US Inflation Adjusted +0.40% +23.00%
Jan 1972 - Dec 1980 		-10.47%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1989 		47.88%
249 out of 520
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +3.46% +24.75%
Jan 1972 - Dec 1981 		-5.99%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1990 		26.18%
133 out of 508
US Inflation Adjusted +0.65% +17.65%
Sep 2001 - Aug 2011 		-10.17%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1990 		46.85%
238 out of 508
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +4.28% +23.93%
Feb 1972 - Jan 1983 		-5.57%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1991 		24.80%
123 out of 496
US Inflation Adjusted +0.51% +15.56%
Feb 2001 - Jan 2012 		-9.72%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1991 		46.98%
233 out of 496
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +5.16% +19.85%
Jan 1972 - Dec 1983 		-5.25%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1992 		23.55%
114 out of 484
US Inflation Adjusted +1.33% +14.59%
Sep 1999 - Aug 2011 		-9.40%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1992 		43.60%
211 out of 484
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 13 Years (156 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +5.53% +16.25%
Jan 1972 - Dec 1984 		-5.10%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1993 		26.69%
126 out of 472
US Inflation Adjusted +1.60% +12.59%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2011 		-9.42%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1993 		38.14%
180 out of 472
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 14 Years (168 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +5.70% +15.48%
Jan 1972 - Dec 1985 		-4.06%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2001 		25.00%
115 out of 460
US Inflation Adjusted +1.97% +10.88%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2012 		-8.06%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1994 		38.91%
179 out of 460
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 15 Years (180 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +5.80% +15.89%
May 1972 - Apr 1987 		-3.63%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1995 		23.66%
106 out of 448
US Inflation Adjusted +1.90% +9.49%
Dec 1997 - Nov 2012 		-7.76%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1995 		40.18%
180 out of 448
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 16 Years (192 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +6.06% +16.24%
Jan 1972 - Dec 1987 		-3.47%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1996 		24.54%
107 out of 436
US Inflation Adjusted +1.80% +8.97%
Jan 1972 - Dec 1987 		-7.20%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1996 		38.99%
170 out of 436
16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 17 Years (204 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +6.08% +14.10%
Jan 1972 - Dec 1988 		-4.24%
Dec 1980 - Nov 1997 		22.64%
96 out of 424
US Inflation Adjusted +1.92% +8.08%
Aug 2003 - Jul 2020 		-7.76%
Dec 1980 - Nov 1997 		39.86%
169 out of 424
17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 18 Years (216 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +6.18% +13.09%
Jan 1972 - Dec 1989 		-4.54%
Sep 1980 - Aug 1998 		17.23%
71 out of 412
US Inflation Adjusted +1.53% +8.41%
Aug 2002 - Jul 2020 		-8.06%
Sep 1980 - Aug 1998 		38.83%
160 out of 412
18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 19 Years (228 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +5.72% +12.17%
Jan 1972 - Dec 1990 		-4.72%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1999 		15.00%
60 out of 400
US Inflation Adjusted +1.62% +8.64%
Aug 2001 - Jul 2020 		-8.16%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1999 		39.25%
157 out of 400
19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 20 Years (240 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +5.49% +11.03%
Jan 1972 - Dec 1991 		-4.36%
Oct 1980 - Sep 2000 		13.40%
52 out of 388
US Inflation Adjusted +1.53% +7.83%
Aug 2000 - Jul 2020 		-7.77%
Oct 1980 - Sep 2000 		39.95%
155 out of 388
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the iShares Gold Trust (IAU) ETF: Historical Returns page.