Data Source: from January 1977 to December 2021

Last Update: 31 December 2021

The Warren Buffett Portfolio is exposed for 90% on the Stock Market.

It's a Very High Risk portfolio and it can be replicated with 2 ETFs.

In the last 10 years, the portfolio obtained a 15.11% compound annual return, with a 11.78% standard deviation.

In the last 25 years, a 9.38% compound annual return, with a 13.73% standard deviation.

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Warren Buffett Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

90% Stocks
10% Fixed Income
0% Commodities

The Warren Buffett Portfolio can be replicated with the following ETFs:

Weight Ticker ETF Name Investment Themes
90.00 % VV Vanguard Large-Cap Equity, U.S., Large Cap
10.00 % SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond Bond, U.S., Short Term
Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns

The Warren Buffett Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

WARREN BUFFETT PORTFOLIO RETURNS (%)
Last Update: 31 December 2021
Swipe left to see all data
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y(*) 5Y(*) 10Y(*) 20Y(*) 25Y(*)
Warren Buffett Portfolio +3.80 +9.42 +9.81 +24.59 +24.02 +17.06 +15.11 +9.12 +9.38
--- Inflation Adjusted return +3.32 +7.05 +6.20 +16.30 +19.79 +13.74 +12.72 +6.66 +6.93
Components
VV
Vanguard Large-Cap
+4.17 +10.38 +10.81 +27.40 +26.47 +18.72 +16.63 +9.69 +9.88
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond
-0.21 -0.60 -0.57 -0.72 +1.88 +1.47 +0.95 +2.17 +3.01
(*) annualized
Portfolio returns are calculated assuming:
  • a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (i.e. at every January 1st)
  • the reinvestment of dividends

Inflation is updated to Dec 2021. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 7.12% , 3Y: 3.53% , 5Y: 2.92% , 10Y: 2.12% , 20Y: 2.31% , 25Y: 2.29%

In 2021, the portfolio granted a 1.38% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Warren Buffett Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Historical Returns

Historical returns and stats of Warren Buffett Portfolio. Total Returns and Inflation Adjusted Returns are both mentioned.

WARREN BUFFETT PORTFOLIO
Last Update: 31 December 2021
Swipe left to see all data
Period Return
Dec 2021
update
Return
Inflation
Adjusted
Standard
Deviation(*)
Max
Drawdown
Months
Pos - Neg
1M
Dec 2021
+3.80%
+3.32%
0.00%
1 - 0
3M
+9.42%
+7.05%
-0.94%
Nov 2021 - Nov 2021
2 - 1
6M
+9.81%
+6.20%
-4.32%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
4 - 2
YTD
+24.59%
+16.30%
9.63%
-4.32%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
9 - 3
75% pos
1Y
+24.59%
+16.30%
9.63%
-4.32%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
9 - 3
75% pos
3Y
+24.02%
annualized
+19.79%
annualized
15.51%
-17.49%
Feb 2020 - Mar 2020
27 - 9
75% pos
5Y
+17.06%
annualized
+13.74%
annualized
13.75%
-17.49%
Feb 2020 - Mar 2020
47 - 13
78% pos
10Y
+15.11%
annualized
+12.72%
annualized
11.78%
-17.49%
Feb 2020 - Mar 2020
89 - 31
74% pos
20Y
+9.12%
annualized
+6.66%
annualized
13.11%
-45.52%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
163 - 77
68% pos
25Y
+9.38%
annualized
+6.93%
annualized
13.73%
-45.52%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
198 - 102
66% pos
MAX
01 Jan 1977
+11.27%
annualized
+7.46%
annualized
13.48%
-45.52%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
352 - 188
65% pos
(*)Annualized St.Dev. of monthly returns

Portfolio efficiency

Is the Warren Buffett Portfolio actually efficient, compared to other Lazy Portfolios?

Best Classic Portfolios, with Very High Risk, ordered by 25 Years annualized return.

25 Years Stats
% Allocation
Portfolio Return Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm.
Technology
+13.30% -81.08% 100 0 0 Compare
US Stocks
+9.88% -50.84% 100 0 0 Compare
Warren Buffett Portfolio
Warren Buffett
+9.38% -45.53% 90 10 0
Aggressive Global Income
+9.25% -52.62% 80 20 0 Compare
Stocks/Bonds 80/20
+9.17% -41.09% 80 20 0 Compare

See all portfolios

Our overall ratings, assigned to the Warren Buffett Portfolio. The portfolio is classified as Very High Risk.

Very High Risk
Bond weight:
Less than 25%
High Risk
Bond weight:
25% - 49.99%
Medium Risk
Bond weight:
50% - 74.99%
Low Risk
Bond weight:
At least 75%
Very High Risk
Portfolios
All
Portfolios
25 Years Ann. Return
(Inflation Adjusted)
+9.38%
(+6.93%)
Good : 4 / 5
Excellent : 4.5 / 5
Standard Deviation
over 25 Years
13.73%
Excellent : 4.1 / 5
Average : 2.5 / 5
Maximum Drawdown
over 25 Years
-45.52%
Excellent : 4.9 / 5
Average : 2 / 5
Easy to manage 2 ETFs
Excellent : 4.5 / 5
Excellent : 4.5 / 5
Rating assigned considering all the Very High Risk Portfolios Rating assigned considering all the Portfolios in the database

Capital Growth

Time Range:

An investment of 1000$, since January 1997, now would be worth 9409.88$, with a total return of 840.99% (9.38% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 5343.16$, with a net total return of 434.32% (6.93% annualized).

Drawdowns

Time Range:

Worst drawdowns since January 1997 - Chart and Data

Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months
-45.52% Nov 2007 Feb 2009 16 Apr 2011 26 42
-39.67% Sep 2000 Sep 2002 25 Sep 2006 48 73
-17.49% Feb 2020 Mar 2020 2 Jul 2020 4 6
-15.04% May 2011 Sep 2011 5 Feb 2012 5 10
-13.83% Jul 1998 Aug 1998 2 Nov 1998 3 5
-12.09% Oct 2018 Dec 2018 3 Apr 2019 4 7
-7.73% Aug 2015 Sep 2015 2 May 2016 8 10
-6.10% Jan 2000 Feb 2000 2 Mar 2000 1 3
-6.10% Apr 2012 May 2012 2 Aug 2012 3 5
-5.73% May 2019 May 2019 1 Jun 2019 1 2
-5.59% Jul 1999 Sep 1999 3 Nov 1999 2 5
-5.54% Sep 2020 Oct 2020 2 Nov 2020 1 3
-5.47% Feb 2018 Mar 2018 2 Jul 2018 4 6
-5.15% Aug 1997 Aug 1997 1 Nov 1997 3 4
-4.44% Apr 2000 May 2000 2 Aug 2000 3 5
-4.37% Jun 2007 Jul 2007 2 Sep 2007 2 4
-4.32% Sep 2021 Sep 2021 1 Oct 2021 1 2
-3.76% Mar 1997 Mar 1997 1 Apr 1997 1 2
-2.97% Jan 2014 Jan 2014 1 Feb 2014 1 2
-2.91% Feb 1999 Feb 1999 1 Mar 1999 1 2

Rolling Returns ( more details)

Warren Buffett Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns

Swipe left to see all data
Return (*) Negative
Periods
Rolling Period Average Best Worst
1 Year
+12.44% +54.47%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1983
-38.58%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
17.01%
2 Years
+11.82% +33.80%
Oct 1985 - Sep 1987
-22.31%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
10.64%
3 Years
+11.61% +30.72%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1987
-13.74%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003
11.29%
5 Years
+11.38% +27.22%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1987
-4.93%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009
7.69%
7 Years
+11.22% +21.27%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1989
-2.48%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
1.09%
10 Years
+10.98% +18.12%
Sep 1990 - Aug 2000
-2.17%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
2.61%
15 Years
+10.54% +18.28%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997
+4.09%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2015
0.00%
20 Years
+10.46% +17.11%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
+4.91%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
0.00%

* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Warren Buffett Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

Warren Buffett Portfolio Seasonality: in which months is it better to invest?

In the table below, the average monthly return is represented.

Below each return, it's also mentioned the probability of obtaining a positive monthly result (Win %).

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.

Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Win %
0.89
60%
0.39
58%
1.00
69%
1.97
76%
1.09
69%
0.64
64%
1.12
53%
0.64
64%
-0.37
53%
0.75
62%
2.05
76%
1.48
78%
Best
Year
12.0
1987
6.9
1986
8.8
2000
11.4
2020
8.8
1990
6.4
2019
8.3
1989
11.3
1982
8.2
2010
10.3
1982
10.0
2020
10.5
1991
Worst
Year
-7.3
2009
-9.4
2009
-11.1
2020
-5.3
2002
-7.2
2010
-7.3
2008
-6.6
2002
-13.0
1998
-9.3
2002
-19.9
1987
-7.3
1987
-7.8
2018
Statistics calculated for the period Jan 1977 - Dec 2021

For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.

Monthly/Yearly Returns

Warren Buffett Portfolio monthly and yearly returns: how is the distribution of the returns recorded so far?

MONTHLY RETURNS HISTOGRAM
352 Positive Months (65%) - 188 Negative Months (35%)
Jan 1977 - Dec 2021
Swipe left to see all data
Yearly Return(%)
Monthly Return(%)
Year Total Infl.Adj Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2021
+24.59 +16.30 -0.8 2.3 3.6 4.9 0.4 2.4 2.2 2.7 -4.3 6.4 -0.9 3.8
2020
+19.19 +17.66 0.3 -7.2 -11.1 11.4 4.6 1.9 5.4 6.9 -3.4 -2.3 10.0 3.7
2019
+28.46 +25.62 7.3 3.0 1.7 3.7 -5.7 6.4 1.4 -1.5 1.7 2.0 3.4 2.7
2018
-3.84 -5.66 5.1 -3.4 -2.2 0.3 2.2 0.6 3.3 3.0 0.5 -6.3 1.8 -7.8
2017
+19.83 +17.36 1.8 3.6 0.1 1.0 1.3 0.6 1.9 0.3 1.9 2.1 2.7 1.1
2016
+10.69 +8.46 -4.8 -0.1 6.2 0.4 1.5 0.3 3.4 0.1 0.1 -1.6 3.3 1.8
2015
+0.96 +0.32 -2.6 5.2 -1.2 0.7 1.2 -1.8 1.9 -5.4 -2.4 7.4 0.3 -1.6
2014
+12.08 +11.35 -3.0 4.2 0.6 0.5 2.1 1.9 -1.3 3.6 -1.4 2.2 2.5 -0.3
2013
+29.44 +27.51 4.8 1.2 3.3 1.8 2.0 -1.2 4.9 -2.6 3.2 4.1 2.6 2.4
2012
+14.59 +12.61 4.4 3.8 3.0 -0.5 -5.6 3.5 1.0 2.3 2.3 -1.6 0.6 1.0
2011
+1.43 -1.59 2.1 3.1 0.1 2.8 -0.9 -1.6 -1.8 -5.1 -6.5 9.8 -0.4 0.8
2010
+14.55 +12.92 -3.0 2.8 5.5 1.5 -7.2 -4.8 6.3 -4.1 8.2 3.6 0.1 6.2
2009
+24.66 +21.25 -7.3 -9.4 7.3 9.0 5.1 0.0 6.8 3.4 3.5 -1.9 5.6 2.0
2008
-32.35 -32.33 -5.4 -2.2 -0.4 4.1 1.5 -7.3 -0.8 1.0 -7.8 -14.9 -6.3 1.7
2007
+6.30 +2.10 1.6 -1.6 1.0 4.0 3.2 -1.6 -2.8 1.7 3.5 1.5 -3.4 -0.7
2006
+14.32 +11.51 2.3 0.2 1.6 0.8 -2.5 0.3 0.4 2.0 2.4 3.0 2.1 1.1
2005
+5.58 +2.17 -2.6 2.1 -1.5 -1.9 3.6 0.5 3.1 -0.8 0.8 -1.5 3.5 0.4
2004
+9.73 +6.18 1.7 1.3 -1.3 -1.5 1.2 1.7 -3.0 0.4 1.0 1.4 3.6 3.1
2003
+25.87 +23.36 -2.4 -1.3 0.9 7.4 4.8 1.2 1.5 1.8 -0.9 5.1 0.8 4.9
2002
-19.13 -21.09 -1.3 -1.7 3.3 -5.3 -0.6 -6.3 -6.6 0.7 -9.3 7.5 5.0 -5.0
2001
-10.04 -11.46 3.3 -8.2 -5.6 6.9 0.6 -2.1 -0.7 -5.5 -6.9 1.8 6.6 0.7
2000
-7.27 -10.35 -4.6 -1.6 8.8 -2.7 -1.8 2.4 -1.3 5.6 -4.7 -0.3 -6.9 0.6
1999
+19.15 +16.04 3.8 -2.9 3.7 3.5 -2.2 5.0 -2.8 -0.4 -2.4 5.7 1.9 5.4
1998
+26.49 +24.49 1.1 6.5 4.7 1.0 -1.5 3.7 -0.9 -13.0 5.9 7.4 5.5 5.3
1997
+30.52 +28.34 5.6 0.7 -3.8 5.5 5.6 4.1 7.4 -5.2 5.1 -3.0 4.2 1.6
1996
+21.03 +17.07 3.1 0.8 0.9 1.3 2.3 0.4 -4.0 1.9 5.2 2.6 7.0 -1.8
1995
+34.91 +31.58 2.5 3.7 2.7 2.8 3.8 2.2 3.0 0.3 3.9 -0.3 4.1 1.8
1994
+1.01 -1.55 3.1 -2.5 -4.0 1.1 1.5 -2.2 3.0 3.7 -2.2 2.1 -3.4 1.3
1993
+9.53 +6.54 0.9 1.4 1.9 -2.1 2.3 0.3 -0.4 3.5 -0.7 1.9 -0.9 1.2
1992
+7.36 +4.26 -1.7 1.1 -1.8 2.7 0.6 -1.2 3.8 -1.7 1.2 0.2 3.0 1.2
1991
+28.35 +24.63 4.0 6.5 2.2 0.3 4.0 -4.1 4.3 2.3 -1.4 1.3 -3.6 10.5
1990
-2.00 -7.77 -6.1 1.2 2.4 -2.2 8.8 -0.5 -0.2 -8.1 -4.3 -0.2 5.8 2.6
1989
+29.38 +23.64 6.7 -2.2 2.1 4.9 3.8 -0.3 8.3 1.6 -0.3 -2.0 1.9 2.2
1988
+15.17 +10.30 3.9 4.2 -2.7 0.9 0.7 4.2 -0.3 -3.1 4.0 2.6 -1.4 1.6
1987
+4.71 +0.37 12.0 3.7 2.6 -1.0 1.0 4.7 4.5 3.5 -2.1 -19.9 -7.3 6.8
1986
+17.29 +15.91 0.5 6.9 5.2 -1.2 4.9 1.7 -5.1 6.9 -7.6 5.2 2.4 -2.4
1985
+29.49 +24.76 6.9 1.2 0.1 -0.1 5.7 1.4 -0.2 -0.5 -2.8 4.1 6.4 4.4
1984
+6.99 +2.83 -0.3 -3.0 1.4 0.7 -4.9 2.1 -1.1 10.1 0.2 0.5 -0.7 2.5
1983
+19.96 +15.59 3.1 2.4 3.1 7.1 -0.8 3.5 -3.0 1.7 1.3 -1.2 2.1 -0.5
1982
+21.09 +16.63 -1.3 -4.5 -0.5 3.9 -2.3 -1.5 -1.5 11.3 1.2 10.3 3.8 1.7
1981
-3.26 -11.18 -3.9 1.9 3.6 -2.1 0.8 -0.7 -0.1 -4.9 -4.3 5.2 4.5 -2.6
1980
+29.60 +15.35 5.4 0.0 -8.8 4.7 5.3 2.6 5.9 1.0 2.4 1.8 9.9 -2.7
1979
+17.05 +3.35 3.9 -2.5 5.3 0.4 -1.4 3.8 1.0 5.5 0.2 -6.2 4.9 1.7
1978
+5.62 -3.09 -5.4 -1.5 2.3 7.6 1.2 -1.4 5.2 3.2 -0.5 -8.1 2.4 1.5
1977
-6.77 -12.60 -4.6 -1.2 -1.1 0.0 -1.3 4.1 -1.4 -1.2 0.0 -3.7 3.2 0.5

* Note:
Portofolio Returns, up to December 2004, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.

In particular, it has been used:

  • VV - Vanguard Large-Cap: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
  • SHY - iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2002
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