Last Update: 31 August 2021

Implementing the Warren Buffett Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?

Considering all 12 years rolling periods, you would have obtained a positive returns 100.00% of times

Considering all 5 years rolling periods, you would have obtained a positive returns 92.24% of times

All the returns are calculated over the available historical serie, starting from January 1977 until August 2021.

In order to have complete information about the portfolio, please refer to the Warren Buffett Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.

Rolling Returns

Warren Buffett Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns

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Return (*) Negative
Periods
Rolling Period Average Best Worst
1 Year
+12.32% +54.47%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1983
-38.58%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
17.14%
2 Years
+11.74% +33.79%
Oct 1985 - Sep 1987
-22.31%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
10.72%
3 Years
+11.55% +30.72%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1987
-13.74%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003
11.38%
4 Years
+11.44% +28.55%
Feb 1995 - Jan 1999
-7.47%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009
11.66%
5 Years
+11.33% +27.22%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1987
-4.93%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009
7.76%
6 Years
+11.28% +22.84%
Apr 1994 - Mar 2000
-0.27%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2005
0.86%
7 Years
+11.20% +21.27%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1989
-2.48%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
1.10%
8 Years
+11.17% +19.32%
Jan 1991 - Dec 1998
-3.18%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009
2.04%
9 Years
+11.08% +19.44%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1999
-3.68%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2009
3.03%
10 Years
+10.94% +18.12%
Sep 1990 - Aug 2000
-2.17%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
2.64%
11 Years
+10.80% +18.06%
Jan 1989 - Dec 1999
-0.46%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009
0.49%
12 Years
+10.70% +17.94%
Dec 1987 - Nov 1999
+1.33%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2011
0.00%
13 Years
+10.55% +17.70%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1997
+2.29%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2012
0.00%
14 Years
+10.54% +17.71%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1998
+3.41%
Jan 1999 - Dec 2012
0.00%
15 Years
+10.54% +18.28%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997
+4.09%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2015
0.00%
16 Years
+10.53% +18.25%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1998
+4.24%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2016
0.00%
17 Years
+10.52% +18.37%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999
+4.60%
Feb 1999 - Jan 2016
0.00%
18 Years
+10.52% +17.86%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2000
+5.30%
Jul 1999 - Jun 2017
0.00%
19 Years
+10.49% +17.15%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1999
+4.96%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2018
0.00%
20 Years
+10.48% +17.11%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
+4.91%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
0.00%

* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+12.32% +54.47%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1983
-38.58%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
17.14%
90 out of 525

Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+11.74% +33.79%
Oct 1985 - Sep 1987
-22.31%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
10.72%
55 out of 513

Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+11.55% +30.72%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1987
-13.74%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003
11.38%
57 out of 501

Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+11.44% +28.55%
Feb 1995 - Jan 1999
-7.47%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009
11.66%
57 out of 489

Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+11.33% +27.22%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1987
-4.93%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009
7.76%
37 out of 477

Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+11.28% +22.84%
Apr 1994 - Mar 2000
-0.27%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2005
0.86%
4 out of 465

Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+11.20% +21.27%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1989
-2.48%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
1.10%
5 out of 453

Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+11.17% +19.32%
Jan 1991 - Dec 1998
-3.18%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009
2.04%
9 out of 441

Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+11.08% +19.44%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1999
-3.68%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2009
3.03%
13 out of 429

Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+10.94% +18.12%
Sep 1990 - Aug 2000
-2.17%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
2.64%
11 out of 417

Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+10.80% +18.06%
Jan 1989 - Dec 1999
-0.46%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009
0.49%
2 out of 405

Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+10.70% +17.94%
Dec 1987 - Nov 1999
+1.33%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2011
0.00%
0 out of 393

Annualized Rolling Returns - 13 Years (156 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+10.55% +17.70%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1997
+2.29%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2012
0.00%
0 out of 381

Annualized Rolling Returns - 14 Years (168 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+10.54% +17.71%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1998
+3.41%
Jan 1999 - Dec 2012
0.00%
0 out of 369

Annualized Rolling Returns - 15 Years (180 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+10.54% +18.28%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997
+4.09%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2015
0.00%
0 out of 357

Annualized Rolling Returns - 16 Years (192 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+10.53% +18.25%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1998
+4.24%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2016
0.00%
0 out of 345

Annualized Rolling Returns - 17 Years (204 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+10.52% +18.37%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999
+4.60%
Feb 1999 - Jan 2016
0.00%
0 out of 333

Annualized Rolling Returns - 18 Years (216 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+10.52% +17.86%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2000
+5.30%
Jul 1999 - Jun 2017
0.00%
0 out of 321

Annualized Rolling Returns - 19 Years (228 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+10.49% +17.15%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1999
+4.96%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2018
0.00%
0 out of 309

Annualized Rolling Returns - 20 Years (240 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+10.48% +17.11%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
+4.91%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
0.00%
0 out of 297

In order to have complete information about the portfolio, please refer to the Warren Buffett Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.

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