Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio: Rolling Returns

Data Source: from January 1871 to March 2024 (~153 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 March 2024

Holding the Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?

Considering all the available data source (~153 years), the longest period with a negative return lasted 154 months (from September 1929 to June 1942).

This means that every rolling period of 155 months or above has always granted a positive return.

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Considering all 10-year rolling periods, is there a relationship between past and future returns, at a given date?

In the following chart, we show how past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis) are related.

Neighboring data is aggregated and occurrences are indicated. It is possible to zoom by clicking or drawing the desired area

STOCKS/BONDS 60/40 PORTFOLIO
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Updated to March 2024

The annualized return of the last 10 years has been 8.05% (updated at Mar 31, 2024).

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

STOCKS/BONDS 60/40 PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 April 1994 - 31 March 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 31 March 2024 (~153 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.30% +83.44%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933 		-44.89%
Jul 1931 - Jun 1932 		22.70%
415 out of 1828
US Inflation Adjusted +6.44% +96.44%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933 		-38.81%
Jul 1931 - Jun 1932 		29.92%
547 out of 1828
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.04% +35.24%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1934 		-34.28%
Jun 1930 - May 1932 		15.14%
275 out of 1816
US Inflation Adjusted +5.93% +36.24%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1934 		-27.01%
Jun 1930 - May 1932 		23.46%
426 out of 1816
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.76% +28.79%
Mar 1933 - Feb 1936 		-25.23%
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932 		9.37%
169 out of 1804
US Inflation Adjusted +5.76% +25.29%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1935 		-19.29%
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932 		18.29%
330 out of 1804
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.61% +26.95%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1936 		-15.33%
Jun 1928 - May 1932 		5.25%
94 out of 1792
US Inflation Adjusted +5.79% +26.49%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1936 		-13.01%
Jul 1916 - Jun 1920 		15.40%
276 out of 1792
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.69% +23.38%
Jun 1932 - May 1937 		-8.90%
Jun 1927 - May 1932 		3.43%
61 out of 1780
US Inflation Adjusted +5.87% +22.15%
Jun 1932 - May 1937 		-10.35%
Jan 1916 - Dec 1920 		12.70%
226 out of 1780
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.68% +19.62%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1987 		-4.99%
Jul 1926 - Jun 1932 		2.77%
49 out of 1768
US Inflation Adjusted +5.60% +18.74%
Sep 1923 - Aug 1929 		-7.64%
Jul 1914 - Jun 1920 		10.46%
185 out of 1768
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.54% +18.96%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1987 		-2.67%
Jul 1925 - Jun 1932 		0.74%
13 out of 1756
US Inflation Adjusted +5.41% +16.78%
Sep 1921 - Aug 1928 		-6.22%
Jun 1913 - May 1920 		9.40%
165 out of 1756
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.39% +18.12%
Sep 1921 - Aug 1929 		-1.48%
Apr 1930 - Mar 1938 		0.23%
4 out of 1744
US Inflation Adjusted +5.61% +18.46%
Sep 1921 - Aug 1929 		-5.99%
Aug 1912 - Jul 1920 		10.32%
180 out of 1744
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.39% +16.60%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1987 		-0.96%
Apr 1929 - Mar 1938 		0.23%
4 out of 1732
US Inflation Adjusted +5.68% +17.48%
Sep 1920 - Aug 1929 		-5.99%
Jul 1911 - Jun 1920 		9.64%
167 out of 1732
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.34% +15.69%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1992 		-0.01%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1939 		0.06%
1 out of 1720
US Inflation Adjusted +5.59% +14.69%
Jun 1920 - May 1930 		-4.21%
Jul 1911 - Jun 1921 		8.60%
148 out of 1720
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.36% +15.30%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1993 		+0.18%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1940 		0.00%
0 out of 1708
US Inflation Adjusted +5.76% +12.19%
Sep 1918 - Aug 1929 		-3.64%
Aug 1909 - Jul 1920 		7.55%
129 out of 1708
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.39% +15.10%
Sep 1974 - Aug 1986 		+0.46%
May 1930 - Apr 1942 		0.00%
0 out of 1696
US Inflation Adjusted +5.76% +11.55%
Jul 1921 - Jun 1933 		-2.69%
Jan 1909 - Dec 1920 		6.54%
111 out of 1696
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 13 Years (156 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.34% +15.46%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1987 		+0.09%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1942 		0.00%
0 out of 1684
US Inflation Adjusted +5.59% +11.69%
Jul 1920 - Jun 1933 		-1.81%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1981 		6.00%
101 out of 1684
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 14 Years (168 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.14% +14.78%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1998 		+1.71%
Dec 1928 - Nov 1942 		0.00%
0 out of 1672
US Inflation Adjusted +5.53% +11.14%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1998 		-2.28%
Aug 1906 - Jul 1920 		4.31%
72 out of 1672
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 15 Years (180 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.18% +15.35%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997 		+2.25%
Sep 1881 - Aug 1896 		0.00%
0 out of 1660
US Inflation Adjusted +5.45% +11.58%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997 		-2.07%
Aug 1905 - Jul 1920 		2.59%
43 out of 1660
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 16 Years (192 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.12% +15.36%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1998 		+2.54%
Jun 1881 - May 1897 		0.00%
0 out of 1648
US Inflation Adjusted +5.27% +11.68%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1998 		-1.21%
Sep 1905 - Aug 1921 		2.25%
37 out of 1648
16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 17 Years (204 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.15% +15.21%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999 		+3.22%
May 1881 - Apr 1898 		0.00%
0 out of 1636
US Inflation Adjusted +5.19% +11.63%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999 		-0.71%
Jun 1903 - May 1920 		1.34%
22 out of 1636
17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 18 Years (216 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.25% +14.98%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2000 		+3.39%
Jun 1914 - May 1932 		0.00%
0 out of 1624
US Inflation Adjusted +5.32% +11.26%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2000 		-0.92%
Aug 1902 - Jul 1920 		1.05%
17 out of 1624
18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 19 Years (228 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.29% +14.66%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1999 		+3.40%
Jun 1913 - May 1932 		0.00%
0 out of 1612
US Inflation Adjusted +5.30% +10.69%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2000 		-1.25%
Jul 1901 - Jun 1920 		1.24%
20 out of 1612
19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 20 Years (240 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.26% +14.69%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000 		+3.15%
Jun 1912 - May 1932 		0.00%
0 out of 1600
US Inflation Adjusted +5.29% +10.42%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000 		-0.57%
Jul 1901 - Jun 1921 		0.56%
9 out of 1600
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.