Last Update: 31 October 2022

Implementing the Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?

Considering all 11 years rolling periods, you would have obtained a positive returns 100.00% of times

Considering all 3 years rolling periods, you would have obtained a positive returns 90.54% of times

All the returns are calculated over the available historical serie, starting from January 1871 until October 2022.

In order to have complete information about the portfolio, please refer to the Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.

Rolling Returns

Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns

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Rolling
Period
Return (*) Negative
Periods
Average (%) Best (%) Worst (%)
1 Year
8.33 83.44
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933
-44.89
Jul 1931 - Jun 1932
22.64%
2 Years
8.02 35.24
Jul 1932 - Jun 1934
-34.28
Jun 1930 - May 1932
14.62%
3 Years
7.89 28.79
Mar 1933 - Feb 1936
-25.23
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932
9.46%
4 Years
7.83 26.95
Jul 1932 - Jun 1936
-15.33
Jun 1928 - May 1932
5.30%
5 Years
7.80 23.38
Jun 1932 - May 1937
-8.90
Jun 1927 - May 1932
3.46%
6 Years
7.78 19.62
Oct 1981 - Sep 1987
-4.99
Jul 1926 - Jun 1932
2.80%
7 Years
7.78 18.96
Apr 1980 - Mar 1987
-2.67
Jul 1925 - Jun 1932
0.75%
8 Years
7.79 18.12
Sep 1921 - Aug 1929
-1.48
Apr 1930 - Mar 1938
0.23%
9 Years
7.79 16.60
Mar 1978 - Feb 1987
-0.96
Apr 1929 - Mar 1938
0.23%
10 Years
7.77 15.69
Aug 1982 - Jul 1992
-0.01
Sep 1929 - Aug 1939
0.06%
11 Years
7.75 15.30
Jul 1982 - Jun 1993
0.18
Sep 1929 - Aug 1940
0.00%
12 Years
7.74 15.10
Sep 1974 - Aug 1986
0.46
May 1930 - Apr 1942
0.00%
13 Years
7.73 15.46
Oct 1974 - Sep 1987
0.09
Sep 1929 - Aug 1942
0.00%
14 Years
7.72 14.78
Jul 1984 - Jun 1998
1.71
Dec 1928 - Nov 1942
0.00%
15 Years
7.73 15.35
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997
2.25
Sep 1881 - Aug 1896
0.00%
20 Years
7.76 14.69
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
3.15
Jun 1912 - May 1932
0.00%
30 Years
7.90 12.20
Jul 1970 - Jun 2000
3.74
Jun 1902 - May 1932
0.00%
(*) Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+8.33% +83.44%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933
-44.89%
Jul 1931 - Jun 1932
22.64%
410 out of 1811
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns over time
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+8.02% +35.24%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1934
-34.28%
Jun 1930 - May 1932
14.62%
263 out of 1799
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+7.89% +28.79%
Mar 1933 - Feb 1936
-25.23%
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932
9.46%
169 out of 1787
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+7.83% +26.95%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1936
-15.33%
Jun 1928 - May 1932
5.30%
94 out of 1775
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+7.80% +23.38%
Jun 1932 - May 1937
-8.90%
Jun 1927 - May 1932
3.46%
61 out of 1763
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+7.78% +19.62%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1987
-4.99%
Jul 1926 - Jun 1932
2.80%
49 out of 1751
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+7.78% +18.96%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1987
-2.67%
Jul 1925 - Jun 1932
0.75%
13 out of 1739
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+7.79% +18.12%
Sep 1921 - Aug 1929
-1.48%
Apr 1930 - Mar 1938
0.23%
4 out of 1727
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+7.79% +16.60%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1987
-0.96%
Apr 1929 - Mar 1938
0.23%
4 out of 1715
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+7.77% +15.69%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1992
-0.01%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1939
0.06%
1 out of 1703
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+7.75% +15.30%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1993
+0.18%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1940
0.00%
0 out of 1691
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+7.74% +15.10%
Sep 1974 - Aug 1986
+0.46%
May 1930 - Apr 1942
0.00%
0 out of 1679
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 13 Years (156 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+7.73% +15.46%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1987
+0.09%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1942
0.00%
0 out of 1667
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 14 Years (168 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+7.72% +14.78%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1998
+1.71%
Dec 1928 - Nov 1942
0.00%
0 out of 1655
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 15 Years (180 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+7.73% +15.35%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997
+2.25%
Sep 1881 - Aug 1896
0.00%
0 out of 1643
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 20 Years (240 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+7.76% +14.69%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
+3.15%
Jun 1912 - May 1932
0.00%
0 out of 1583
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 30 Years (360 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+7.90% +12.20%
Jul 1970 - Jun 2000
+3.74%
Jun 1902 - May 1932
0.00%
0 out of 1463
30 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
30 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

In order to have complete information about the portfolio, please refer to the Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.

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