US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 To EUR Bond Hedged Portfolio: Rolling Returns

Simulation Settings
Period: August 1953 - April 2026 (~73 years)
Initial Amount: 1€
Rebalancing: at every Jan 1st
Currency: EUR
Inflation: Eurozone
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When holding the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 To EUR Bond Hedged Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~73 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 55 months (from April 2019 to October 2023).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 56 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

US STOCKS/BONDS 20/80 TO EUR BOND HEDGED PORTFOLIO
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 May 1996 - 30 April 2026 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 August 1953 - 30 April 2026 (~73 years)
30 Years
(1996/05 - 2026/04)
All Data
(1953/08 - 2026/04)

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As of Apr 30, 2026, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 2.72%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

US STOCKS/BONDS 20/80 TO EUR BOND HEDGED PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 May 1996 - 30 April 2026 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 August 1953 - 30 April 2026 (~73 years)
30 Years
(1996/05 - 2026/04)
All Data
(1953/08 - 2026/04)
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

US STOCKS/BONDS 20/80 TO EUR BOND HEDGED PORTFOLIO
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 August 1953 - 30 April 2026 (~73 years)
Over Time
Histogram
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-14.61%
Jan 2022 - Dec 2022
+5.87% +35.50%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1983
12.88%
111 out of 862
-22.27%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022
+3.49% +32.04%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1983
26.22%
226 out of 862
-7.89%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023
+6.03% +23.37%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1983
6.35%
54 out of 850
-13.67%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023
+3.83% +19.97%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1986
18.47%
157 out of 850
-3.30%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023
+5.99% +19.56%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1985
4.53%
38 out of 838
-8.61%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023
+3.68% +16.67%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1985
15.63%
131 out of 838
-1.22%
Nov 2019 - Oct 2023
+5.65% +18.25%
Apr 1982 - Mar 1986
0.73%
6 out of 826
-5.25%
Nov 2019 - Oct 2023
+3.41% +15.95%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986
15.50%
128 out of 826
+0.69%
Jan 2018 - Dec 2022
+5.86% +16.77%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1986
0.00%
0 out of 814
-2.99%
Apr 2021 - Mar 2026
+3.48% +14.10%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1986
16.71%
136 out of 814
+0.41%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023
+6.06% +15.71%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1986
0.00%
0 out of 802
-3.24%
Sep 1968 - Aug 1974
+3.57% +12.00%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1987
14.96%
120 out of 802
+0.72%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2023
+5.92% +14.24%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1987
0.00%
0 out of 790
-2.27%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2023
+3.54% +11.03%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1987
12.78%
101 out of 790
+1.09%
Nov 2015 - Oct 2023
+5.98% +12.78%
May 1990 - Apr 1998
0.00%
0 out of 778
-2.38%
Mar 1972 - Feb 1980
+3.62% +10.57%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1989
14.01%
109 out of 778
+1.60%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023
+5.90% +12.33%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1993
0.00%
0 out of 766
-2.55%
Apr 1971 - Mar 1980
+3.78% +9.80%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1993
10.05%
77 out of 766
+2.18%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2023
+5.77% +12.32%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1991
0.00%
0 out of 754
-1.73%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1981
+3.91% +9.66%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1991
8.09%
61 out of 754
+2.28%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023
+5.75% +12.83%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1993
0.00%
0 out of 742
-1.21%
Apr 1971 - Mar 1982
+3.74% +10.21%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1993
6.06%
45 out of 742
+2.80%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2023
+5.80% +13.03%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993
0.00%
0 out of 730
-1.08%
Apr 1968 - Mar 1980
+3.62% +10.17%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993
3.84%
28 out of 730
+3.09%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023
+5.73% +12.28%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1993
0.00%
0 out of 718
-1.16%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1981
+3.61% +9.17%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1995
3.90%
28 out of 718
+3.35%
Apr 2012 - Mar 2026
+5.90% +12.09%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1995
0.00%
0 out of 706
-0.72%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1981
+3.56% +9.24%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1995
2.83%
20 out of 706
+3.56%
Apr 1965 - Mar 1980
+6.00% +12.01%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997
0.00%
0 out of 694
-0.60%
Apr 1965 - Mar 1980
+3.51% +9.43%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997
1.73%
12 out of 694
+3.64%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023
+6.08% +12.16%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1997
0.00%
0 out of 682
-0.44%
Oct 1965 - Sep 1981
+3.48% +9.48%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1998
1.17%
8 out of 682
+3.61%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023
+6.33% +11.88%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1998
0.00%
0 out of 670
-0.35%
Oct 1964 - Sep 1981
+3.59% +9.24%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999
0.60%
4 out of 670
+3.64%
Nov 2005 - Oct 2023
+6.51% +11.85%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1998
0.00%
0 out of 658
-0.09%
Oct 1963 - Sep 1981
+3.58% +8.94%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2000
0.30%
2 out of 658
+3.63%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023
+6.73% +11.57%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1999
0.00%
0 out of 646
+0.02%
Apr 1961 - Mar 1980
+3.62% +8.98%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2000
0.00%
0 out of 646
+3.67%
Nov 2003 - Oct 2023
+6.81% +11.37%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 634
+0.16%
Oct 1961 - Sep 1981
+3.84% +8.54%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 634
+4.06%
Nov 1998 - Oct 2023
+7.35% +9.86%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2005
0.00%
0 out of 574
+1.26%
Oct 1956 - Sep 1981
+4.36% +7.15%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2005
0.00%
0 out of 574
+4.87%
Nov 1993 - Oct 2023
+7.45% +9.07%
Jul 1970 - Jun 2000
0.00%
0 out of 514
+2.32%
Jun 1954 - May 1984
+4.80% +6.51%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2011
0.00%
0 out of 514
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