Data Source: from January 1972 to December 2021

Last Update: 31 December 2021

The Simplified Permanent Portfolio is exposed for 25% on the Stock Market and for 25% on Commodities.

It's a Medium Risk portfolio and it can be replicated with 3 ETFs.

In the last 10 years, the portfolio obtained a 5.97% compound annual return, with a 5.93% standard deviation.

In the last 25 years, a 7.48% compound annual return, with a 6.61% standard deviation.

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Simplified Permanent Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

25% Stocks
50% Fixed Income
25% Commodities

The Simplified Permanent Portfolio can be replicated with the following ETFs:

Weight Ticker ETF Name Investment Themes
25.00 % VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market Equity, U.S., Large Cap
50.00 % IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Bond, U.S., Intermediate-Term
25.00 % GLD SPDR Gold Trust Commodity, Gold
Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns

The Simplified Permanent Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

SIMPLIFIED PERMANENT PORTFOLIO RETURNS (%)
Last Update: 31 December 2021
Swipe left to see all data
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y(*) 5Y(*) 10Y(*) 20Y(*) 25Y(*)
Simplified Permanent Portfolio +1.62 +3.62 +3.39 +3.72 +11.95 +8.74 +5.97 +7.96 +7.48
--- Inflation Adjusted return +1.15 +1.38 -0.01 -3.18 +8.13 +5.65 +3.78 +5.52 +5.07
Components
VTI
Vanguard Total Stock Market
+3.79 +9.11 +9.08 +25.67 +25.73 +17.96 +16.29 +9.91 +9.88
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond
-0.52 +0.12 +0.08 -3.33 +4.73 +3.54 +2.62 +5.00 +5.57
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust
+3.30 +4.10 +3.22 -4.15 +12.13 +9.30 +1.18 +9.51 +6.30
(*) annualized
Portfolio returns are calculated assuming:
  • a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (i.e. at every January 1st)
  • the reinvestment of dividends

Inflation is updated to Dec 2021. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 7.12% , 3Y: 3.53% , 5Y: 2.92% , 10Y: 2.12% , 20Y: 2.31% , 25Y: 2.29%

In 2021, the portfolio granted a 0.78% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Simplified Permanent Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Historical Returns

Historical returns and stats of Simplified Permanent Portfolio. Total Returns and Inflation Adjusted Returns are both mentioned.

SIMPLIFIED PERMANENT PORTFOLIO
Last Update: 31 December 2021
Swipe left to see all data
Period Return
Dec 2021
update
Return
Inflation
Adjusted
Standard
Deviation(*)
Max
Drawdown
Months
Pos - Neg
1M
Dec 2021
+1.62%
+1.15%
0.00%
1 - 0
3M
+3.62%
+1.38%
-0.08%
Nov 2021 - Nov 2021
2 - 1
6M
+3.39%
-0.01%
-2.81%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
4 - 2
YTD
+3.72%
-3.18%
6.03%
-3.81%
Jan 2021 - Mar 2021
6 - 6
50% pos
1Y
+3.72%
-3.18%
6.03%
-3.81%
Jan 2021 - Mar 2021
6 - 6
50% pos
3Y
+11.95%
annualized
+8.13%
annualized
6.47%
-3.81%
Jan 2021 - Mar 2021
24 - 12
67% pos
5Y
+8.74%
annualized
+5.65%
annualized
5.63%
-3.81%
Jan 2021 - Mar 2021
40 - 20
67% pos
10Y
+5.97%
annualized
+3.78%
annualized
5.93%
-6.69%
Apr 2013 - Jun 2013
71 - 49
59% pos
20Y
+7.96%
annualized
+5.52%
annualized
6.59%
-13.28%
Mar 2008 - Oct 2008
152 - 88
63% pos
25Y
+7.48%
annualized
+5.07%
annualized
6.61%
-13.28%
Mar 2008 - Oct 2008
188 - 112
63% pos
MAX
01 Jan 1972
+9.16%
annualized
+5.05%
annualized
7.90%
-14.34%
Dec 1980 - Sep 1981
382 - 218
64% pos
(*)Annualized St.Dev. of monthly returns

Portfolio efficiency

Is the Simplified Permanent Portfolio actually efficient, compared to other Lazy Portfolios?

Similar portfolios, ordered by 5 Years annualized return.

These portfolios share asset allocation strategy and/or similar asset weights. Comparing their returns and drawdowns, you can get an idea of the risk you are facing implementing one of them.

5 Years Stats
% Allocation
Portfolio Return Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm.
All Weather Portfolio 2x Leveraged
Ray Dalio
+15.78% -11.90% 37.5 55 7.5 Compare
All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin
Ray Dalio
+15.53% -5.17% 30 55 15 Compare
Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin
Harry Browne
+14.78% -4.61% 25 50 25 Compare
Simplified Permanent Portfolio 2x Leveraged
+14.26% -9.99% 25 50 25 Compare
All Weather Portfolio
Ray Dalio
+9.60% -4.76% 30 55 15 Compare
Permanent Portfolio
Harry Browne
+8.91% -4.43% 25 50 25 Compare
Simplified Permanent Portfolio
+8.74% -3.82% 25 50 25

Best Classic Portfolios, with Medium Risk, ordered by 25 Years annualized return.

25 Years Stats
% Allocation
Portfolio Return Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm.
Couch Potato
Scott Burns
+8.33% -27.03% 50 50 0 Compare
All Weather Portfolio
Ray Dalio
+7.89% -12.19% 30 55 15 Compare
Robo Advisor 50
Betterment
+7.63% -30.72% 49.9 50.1 0 Compare
Simplified Permanent Portfolio
+7.48% -13.28% 25 50 25
Stocks/Bonds 40/60
+7.24% -19.17% 40 60 0 Compare

See all portfolios

Our overall ratings, assigned to the Simplified Permanent Portfolio. The portfolio is classified as Medium Risk.

Very High Risk
Bond weight:
Less than 25%
High Risk
Bond weight:
25% - 49.99%
Medium Risk
Bond weight:
50% - 74.99%
Low Risk
Bond weight:
At least 75%
Medium Risk
Portfolios
All
Portfolios
25 Years Ann. Return
(Inflation Adjusted)
+7.48%
(+5.07%)
Good : 3.7 / 5
Good : 3.2 / 5
Standard Deviation
over 25 Years
6.61%
Good : 3.8 / 5
Excellent : 4.2 / 5
Maximum Drawdown
over 25 Years
-13.28%
Excellent : 5 / 5
Excellent : 4.4 / 5
Easy to manage 3 ETFs
Good : 4 / 5
Good : 4 / 5
Rating assigned considering all the Medium Risk Portfolios Rating assigned considering all the Portfolios in the database

Capital Growth

Time Range:

An investment of 1000$, since January 1997, now would be worth 6068.10$, with a total return of 506.81% (7.48% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 3445.62$, with a net total return of 244.56% (5.07% annualized).

Drawdowns

Time Range:

Worst drawdowns since January 1997 - Chart and Data

Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months
-13.28% Mar 2008 Oct 2008 8 Aug 2009 10 18
-6.69% Apr 2013 Jun 2013 3 Feb 2014 8 11
-6.23% Aug 2016 Dec 2016 5 Jul 2017 7 12
-5.27% Feb 2015 Dec 2015 11 Mar 2016 3 14
-5.09% Feb 1999 Aug 1999 7 Oct 1999 2 9
-4.79% Apr 2004 Apr 2004 1 Oct 2004 6 7
-4.63% Jul 1998 Aug 1998 2 Sep 1998 1 3
-3.81% Jan 2021 Mar 2021 3 May 2021 2 5
-3.69% Sep 2011 Sep 2011 1 Nov 2011 2 3
-3.68% Feb 2018 Oct 2018 9 Jan 2019 3 12
-3.46% Sep 2000 Mar 2001 7 Sep 2001 6 13
-3.24% Dec 2009 Jan 2010 2 Apr 2010 3 5
-3.11% Sep 2020 Oct 2020 2 Dec 2020 2 4
-2.98% Apr 2000 May 2000 2 Jun 2000 1 3
-2.87% Mar 1997 Mar 1997 1 May 1997 2 3
-2.81% Sep 2021 Sep 2021 1 Dec 2021 3 4
-2.60% Jun 2002 Jul 2002 2 Aug 2002 1 3
-2.59% Sep 2014 Sep 2014 1 Jan 2015 4 5
-2.47% May 2006 Jun 2006 2 Aug 2006 2 4
-2.22% Jun 2003 Jul 2003 2 Aug 2003 1 3

Rolling Returns ( more details)

Simplified Permanent Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns

Swipe left to see all data
Return (*) Negative
Periods
Rolling Period Average Best Worst
1 Year
+9.37% +43.26%
Feb 1979 - Jan 1980
-14.15%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1981
9.51%
2 Years
+9.12% +29.39%
Jul 1978 - Jun 1980
-6.27%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1982
0.87%
3 Years
+8.98% +21.47%
Jul 1977 - Jun 1980
+0.72%
Oct 2012 - Sep 2015
0.00%
5 Years
+8.92% +18.07%
Apr 1982 - Mar 1987
+2.76%
Feb 2012 - Jan 2017
0.00%
7 Years
+8.96% +15.09%
Feb 1973 - Jan 1980
+3.15%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2018
0.00%
10 Years
+8.95% +14.38%
Sep 1976 - Aug 1986
+5.62%
Dec 2011 - Nov 2021
0.00%
15 Years
+8.89% +13.11%
Apr 1972 - Mar 1987
+6.56%
Aug 1987 - Jul 2002
0.00%
20 Years
+8.73% +11.71%
Jan 1972 - Dec 1991
+6.52%
Jan 1999 - Dec 2018
0.00%

* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Simplified Permanent Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

Simplified Permanent Portfolio Seasonality: in which months is it better to invest?

In the table below, the average monthly return is represented.

Below each return, it's also mentioned the probability of obtaining a positive monthly result (Win %).

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.

Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Win %
1.03
72%
0.56
58%
0.15
58%
0.74
64%
0.95
64%
0.67
60%
0.61
60%
0.80
60%
0.69
60%
0.55
66%
1.15
70%
1.19
72%
Best
Year
6.6
1980
6.7
1974
4.8
1986
8.6
1980
7.7
1973
7.4
1980
4.6
2020
10.4
1982
7.5
1979
8.1
1982
6.0
2009
9.6
1979
Worst
Year
-4.7
1981
-4.3
1980
-9.3
1980
-4.8
2004
-3.1
1984
-4.0
2013
-2.7
1973
-3.8
1973
-4.1
1975
-8.3
2008
-5.2
1978
-3.4
1981
Statistics calculated for the period Jan 1972 - Dec 2021

For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.

Monthly/Yearly Returns

Simplified Permanent Portfolio monthly and yearly returns: how is the distribution of the returns recorded so far?

MONTHLY RETURNS HISTOGRAM
382 Positive Months (64%) - 218 Negative Months (36%)
Jan 1972 - Dec 2021
Swipe left to see all data
Yearly Return(%)
Monthly Return(%)
Year Total Infl.Adj Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2021
+3.72 -3.18 -1.4 -1.9 -0.5 2.7 2.1 -0.6 2.0 0.6 -2.8 2.1 -0.1 1.6
2020
+16.46 +14.97 2.8 -0.6 -1.2 4.6 2.0 1.2 4.6 1.0 -1.9 -1.3 1.4 2.9
2019
+16.15 +13.58 3.2 0.5 1.3 0.7 0.1 4.4 0.4 3.3 -1.0 1.3 -0.1 1.2
2018
-1.29 -3.15 1.0 -2.0 0.2 -0.8 0.9 -0.6 0.1 0.9 -0.7 -1.7 1.3 0.1
2017
+9.78 +7.52 1.9 2.1 -0.1 1.3 0.6 -0.6 1.3 1.8 -1.0 0.3 0.8 0.9
2016
+5.72 +3.59 1.6 3.6 1.3 1.5 -1.4 4.0 1.6 -1.4 0.4 -2.1 -3.3 0.0
2015
-1.82 -2.45 3.6 -1.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.3 -1.6 -0.4 -0.7 -0.3 2.1 -1.7 -0.9
2014
+7.12 +6.43 1.6 2.9 -1.0 0.5 0.6 2.1 -1.5 2.1 -2.6 0.7 1.2 0.4
2013
-1.76 -3.23 0.6 -0.4 1.4 -0.6 -2.2 -4.0 3.0 -0.6 1.0 1.6 -0.7 -0.8
2012
+7.59 +5.73 4.5 -0.3 -0.3 1.0 -1.9 1.4 1.1 1.9 1.7 -1.4 0.6 -0.7
2011
+10.45 +7.17 -1.1 2.3 0.4 3.9 0.5 -1.3 3.1 4.1 -3.7 3.2 0.7 -1.7
2010
+16.36 +14.71 0.0 1.8 0.9 2.8 0.2 0.8 0.7 2.1 3.3 1.9 0.2 0.6
2009
+9.94 +6.93 -2.6 -2.5 2.7 0.2 3.0 -1.6 3.1 1.4 3.2 0.2 6.0 -3.2
2008
+0.94 +0.96 2.8 1.5 -1.2 -1.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -1.4 -1.1 -8.3 6.0 5.3
2007
+14.14 +9.64 0.9 1.3 -0.1 1.8 -0.3 -1.2 0.8 1.8 3.6 2.8 0.3 1.7
2006
+10.82 +8.09 2.9 -0.3 0.8 3.2 -1.2 -1.2 1.7 1.0 -0.2 1.5 3.1 -0.8
2005
+7.34 +3.87 -1.1 0.6 -1.1 1.0 0.9 1.5 -0.4 1.1 1.2 -1.4 3.0 2.0
2004
+6.42 +2.98 0.2 0.9 2.0 -4.8 0.4 1.0 -0.6 2.4 1.1 1.5 1.8 0.4
2003
+15.31 +13.01 0.4 -0.7 -0.9 2.3 5.2 -1.0 -1.3 2.4 2.9 0.8 1.2 3.2
2002
+9.00 +6.36 0.5 1.8 -0.6 0.9 1.6 -1.2 -1.4 2.7 1.4 -0.5 0.2 3.3
2001
+0.15 -1.43 0.0 -1.0 -2.3 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.8 0.4 1.1 0.7 -0.6 -0.5
2000
+4.63 +1.16 -2.2 2.8 1.7 -2.0 -1.0 3.7 -1.2 3.3 -1.5 -0.9 -0.5 2.6
1999
+2.25 -0.41 0.9 -3.0 0.7 1.7 -2.9 0.3 -1.6 -0.3 3.9 1.5 0.0 1.4
1998
+12.93 +11.14 2.4 1.1 1.7 1.3 -1.4 1.8 -1.2 -3.5 6.1 1.0 1.5 1.7
1997
+8.38 +6.57 -0.3 1.0 -2.9 1.6 2.7 1.3 3.8 -2.1 3.2 -1.0 0.2 0.8
1996
+4.09 +0.69 2.0 -1.6 -0.5 -0.5 0.3 -0.1 -1.2 0.6 2.1 1.9 2.8 -1.6
1995
+21.97 +18.95 1.2 2.8 2.0 1.3 3.7 1.5 0.2 1.1 1.8 0.4 2.7 1.3
1994
-4.18 -6.61 0.6 -1.8 -2.6 -1.4 0.9 -0.9 1.5 1.3 -1.0 -0.6 -1.0 0.9
1993
+13.56 +10.46 1.5 1.5 1.6 0.7 2.2 1.8 1.7 0.6 -0.6 1.5 -1.6 2.1
1992
+4.46 +1.45 -1.8 0.7 -2.1 0.0 1.5 0.9 3.8 -1.1 2.1 -1.7 0.4 1.6
1991
+15.41 +12.07 0.4 2.0 0.6 0.7 1.5 -1.1 1.5 1.4 1.7 0.9 0.1 4.9
1990
+1.55 -4.43 -2.1 0.0 -2.0 -1.7 3.7 0.1 1.6 -2.6 0.6 -1.2 3.5 1.8
1989
+15.24 +10.13 1.5 -1.5 0.8 2.2 1.9 2.7 3.1 -1.0 0.5 1.4 2.8 0.0
1988
+3.97 -0.43 2.0 0.4 0.1 -0.7 -0.4 2.0 -0.8 -1.3 1.1 2.4 -0.9 0.1
1987
+5.46 +1.08 4.4 1.9 0.8 -0.4 -0.5 1.6 1.7 -0.1 -1.7 -3.9 -0.3 2.0
1986
+19.06 +17.66 2.1 4.3 4.8 0.3 -0.9 3.4 -0.5 5.2 -1.0 0.4 0.6 -0.7
1985
+24.24 +19.70 3.8 -2.7 4.5 0.5 4.8 1.3 0.1 1.6 -1.2 2.5 3.6 3.6
1984
+3.14 -0.87 0.0 -0.2 -1.0 -1.1 -3.1 0.5 0.5 4.0 1.2 1.9 0.6 -0.1
1983
+2.74 -1.01 2.5 -2.1 0.6 4.3 -0.4 0.0 -2.4 -0.4 2.0 -2.4 2.9 -1.6
1982
+28.65 +23.91 -1.2 -1.9 -2.8 5.4 -1.9 -2.5 4.1 10.4 3.5 8.1 2.1 3.3
1981
-6.55 -14.19 -4.7 -2.0 3.7 -3.8 2.5 -3.0 -2.6 -2.0 -2.0 5.5 5.8 -3.4
1980
+11.44 -0.81 6.6 -4.3 -9.3 8.6 4.4 7.4 -1.6 -0.4 2.0 -2.1 2.4 -1.2
1979
+38.61 +22.39 3.1 0.9 1.0 0.4 4.0 2.6 2.0 3.1 7.5 -5.9 5.8 9.6
1978
+11.00 +1.84 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.4 2.3 -0.7 4.5 3.1 0.8 -0.3 -5.2 4.5
1977
+5.09 -1.49 -3.1 1.7 1.3 0.0 -0.5 2.2 -0.6 0.8 1.4 0.0 1.3 0.6
1976
+13.24 +7.81 1.2 1.3 1.0 -0.2 -1.4 1.6 -1.8 -0.5 3.6 1.4 3.1 3.4
1975
+6.02 -1.04 1.9 3.0 -1.2 -0.5 2.9 2.2 -2.4 -1.4 -4.1 4.3 0.0 1.5
1974
+11.61 -0.44 4.5 6.7 0.6 -2.2 -2.7 -3.2 0.5 -2.1 -2.2 7.2 3.6 1.1
1973
+15.34 +5.87 -0.4 6.2 1.6 -0.5 7.7 2.9 -2.7 -3.8 1.2 0.2 -1.1 3.7
1972
+17.84 +13.96 2.3 1.8 0.3 1.0 6.4 2.1 2.1 -0.6 -1.6 1.0 1.5 0.7

* Note:
Portofolio Returns, up to December 2004, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.

In particular, it has been used:

  • VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2001
  • IEF - iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2002
  • GLD - SPDR Gold Trust: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
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