JL Collins Simple Path to Wealth Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns

The JL Collins Simple Path to Wealth Portfolio is exposed for 75% on the Stock Market .

It's a High Risk portfolio and it can be replicated with 2 ETFs.

In the last 10 years, the portfolio obtained a 11.25% compound annual return, with a 9.56% standard deviation (Last Update: October 2019).

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The JL Collins Simple Path to Wealth Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

        75% Stocks
      
        25% Fixed Income
      
        0% Commodities

The JL Collins Simple Path to Wealth Portfolio can be replicated with the following ETFs:

Weight		Ticker	ETF Name	Investment Themes
75.00 %		VTI	Vanguard Total Stock Market	Equity, U.S., Large Cap
25.00 %		BND	Vanguard Total Bond Market	Bond, U.S., All-Term

Returns, capital growth, stats are calculated assuming a rebalancing of the portfolio at the beginning of each year (i.e. at every January 1st).

Historical Returns

JL Collins Simple Path to Wealth Portfolio - Historical returns and stats:

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Range	Returns Oct 2019	Standard Deviation *	Max Drawdown	Months Pos - Neg
1M	+1.69%		0.00%	1 - 0
YTD	+19.09%		-4.59% May 2019 - May 2019	8 - 2
1Y	+13.19%	12.41%	-6.53% Dec 2018 - Dec 2018	9 - 3
3Y	+11.73% annualized	9.16%	-10.58% Oct 2018 - Dec 2018	30 - 6
5Y	+8.59% annualized	9.01%	-10.58% Oct 2018 - Dec 2018	45 - 15
10Y	+11.25% annualized	9.56%	-12.27% May 2011 - Sep 2011	87 - 33
MAX Dec 1986	+9.45% annualized	11.32%	-38.54% Nov 2007 - Feb 2009	262 - 132

* Annualized St.Dev. of monthly returns

Best High Risk Porftolios, ordered by 10Y annualized return.

Portfolio	10Y Return ▾	#ETF	Stocks	Bonds
Simple Path to Wealth JL Collins	+11.25%	2	75	25
Talmud Portfolio Roger Gibson	+10.47%	3	66.67	33.33
Yale Endowment David Swensen	+9.84%	6	70	30
Stocks/Bonds 60/40	+9.77%	2	60	40
Family Taxable Portfolio Ted Aronson	+9.04%	11	70	30

See all portfolios

Capital Growth

Time Range:

Drawdowns

Time Range:

Worst drawdowns since October 2009.

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	Drawdown period			Recovery period		Total
Drawdown	Start	Bottom	#Months	End	#Months	#Months
-12.27%	May 2011	Sep 2011	5	Feb 2012	5	10
-10.58%	Oct 2018	Dec 2018	3	Apr 2019	4	7
-9.45%	May 2010	Jun 2010	2	Oct 2010	4	6
-6.60%	Jun 2015	Sep 2015	4	May 2016	8	12
-4.80%	Apr 2012	May 2012	2	Aug 2012	3	5
-4.59%	May 2019	May 2019	1	Jun 2019	1	2
-4.38%	Feb 2018	Mar 2018	2	Jul 2018	4	6
-2.57%	Aug 2013	Aug 2013	1	Sep 2013	1	2
-2.35%	Jan 2010	Jan 2010	1	Feb 2010	1	2
-1.99%	Jan 2014	Jan 2014	1	Feb 2014	1	2
-1.88%	Oct 2016	Oct 2016	1	Nov 2016	1	2
-1.73%	Sep 2014	Sep 2014	1	Oct 2014	1	2
-1.58%	Jul 2014	Jul 2014	1	Aug 2014	1	2
-1.48%	Jun 2013	Jun 2013	1	Jul 2013	1	2
-1.47%	Dec 2014	Jan 2015	2	Feb 2015	1	3
-1.41%	Oct 2012	Oct 2012	1	Dec 2012	2	3
-0.98%	Aug 2019	Aug 2019	1	Sep 2019	1	2
-0.74%	Mar 2015	Mar 2015	1	May 2015	2	3

Worst drawdowns since December 1986.

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	Drawdown period			Recovery period		Total
Drawdown	Start	Bottom	#Months	End	#Months	#Months
-38.54%	Nov 2007	Feb 2009	16	Dec 2010	22	38
-30.49%	Sep 2000	Sep 2002	25	Dec 2004	27	52
-23.27%	Sep 1987	Nov 1987	3	Apr 1989	17	20
-13.02%	Jul 1998	Aug 1998	2	Nov 1998	3	5
-12.27%	May 2011	Sep 2011	5	Feb 2012	5	10
-11.24%	Jun 1990	Oct 1990	5	Feb 1991	4	9
-10.58%	Oct 2018	Dec 2018	3	Apr 2019	4	7
-6.83%	Feb 1994	Jun 1994	5	Feb 1995	8	13
-6.60%	Jun 2015	Sep 2015	4	May 2016	8	12
-6.51%	Apr 2000	May 2000	2	Aug 2000	3	5
-5.73%	Jan 1990	Jan 1990	1	May 1990	4	5
-4.80%	Apr 2012	May 2012	2	Aug 2012	3	5
-4.78%	Jul 1999	Sep 1999	3	Nov 1999	2	5
-4.59%	May 2019	May 2019	1	Jun 2019	1	2
-4.43%	Jun 1996	Jul 1996	2	Sep 1996	2	4
-4.38%	Feb 2018	Mar 2018	2	Jul 2018	4	6
-3.89%	Jun 2007	Jul 2007	2	Sep 2007	2	4
-3.67%	Feb 1997	Mar 1997	2	May 1997	2	4
-3.49%	Jun 1991	Jun 1991	1	Jul 1991	1	2
-3.25%	Feb 1999	Feb 1999	1	Apr 1999	2	3

Rolling Returns

JL Collins Simple Path to Wealth Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns

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	*Return ()**			Negative Periods
Rolling Period	Average	Best	Worst	Negative Periods
1 Year	+9.81%	+42.77% Mar 2009 - Feb 2010	-32.25% Mar 2008 - Feb 2009	18.28%
2 Years	+9.70%	+30.60% Mar 2009 - Feb 2011	-18.16% Mar 2007 - Feb 2009	12.67%
3 Years	+9.52%	+25.25% Apr 1995 - Mar 1998	-9.99% Apr 2000 - Mar 2003	13.09%
5 Years	+9.37%	+22.05% Jan 1995 - Dec 1999	-3.08% Mar 2004 - Feb 2009	1.49%
7 Years	+9.18%	+17.50% Oct 1990 - Sep 1997	-0.47% Mar 2002 - Feb 2009	0.32%
10 Years	+8.85%	+16.22% Oct 1990 - Sep 2000	+0.03% Mar 1999 - Feb 2009	0.00%
15 Years	+8.12%	+11.69% Jan 1987 - Dec 2001	+5.00% Sep 2000 - Aug 2015	0.00%

* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

Yearly Returns - Monthly Returns Heatmap

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		Months
Year	Return	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
2019	+19.09%	6.7	2.7	1.5	3.0	-4.6	5.7	1.1	-1.0	1.2	1.7
2018	-3.94%	3.6	-3.1	-1.3	0.1	2.2	0.5	2.5	2.8	0.0	-5.9	1.7	-6.5
2017	+16.80%	1.4	2.9	0.0	1.0	0.9	0.7	1.5	0.3	1.8	1.7	2.3	1.0
2016	+10.25%	-4.0	0.2	5.5	0.6	1.3	0.7	3.1	0.1	0.2	-1.9	2.7	1.6
2015	+0.41%	-1.5	3.9	-0.7	0.4	0.9	-1.5	1.5	-4.7	-2.0	5.8	0.4	-1.7
2014	+10.86%	-2.0	3.7	0.3	0.3	1.8	2.0	-1.6	3.4	-1.7	2.3	2.1	-0.0
2013	+24.56%	3.9	1.1	3.0	1.5	1.4	-1.5	4.6	-2.6	3.3	3.5	2.1	2.1
2012	+13.13%	4.0	3.2	2.2	-0.2	-4.6	3.1	1.0	2.1	2.0	-1.4	0.7	0.8
2011	+2.71%	1.6	2.9	0.3	2.6	-0.5	-1.5	-1.3	-4.2	-5.4	8.2	-0.3	1.0
2010	+14.62%	-2.4	2.6	4.7	1.9	-5.7	-4.0	5.4	-3.1	6.9	3.1	0.2	5.0
2009	+22.58%	-6.6	-7.9	6.2	8.2	4.3	0.4	6.2	3.1	3.4	-2.0	4.7	1.9
2008	-26.02%	-4.3	-1.8	-0.6	3.5	1.2	-6.0	-0.5	1.3	-6.9	-13.2	-4.1	3.0
2007	+5.76%	1.4	-0.9	0.8	3.1	2.6	-1.4	-2.5	1.4	3.1	1.6	-3.0	-0.5
2006	+12.84%	2.4	0.3	1.3	0.7	-2.5	0.1	0.2	2.1	1.9	2.9	2.0	0.8
2005	+5.33%	-1.7	1.4	-1.5	-1.3	3.2	0.7	3.0	-0.5	0.3	-2.0	3.6	0.3
2004	+10.65%	2.2	1.3	-0.6	-2.3	1.0	1.7	-2.5	0.5	1.3	1.6	3.4	2.8
2003	+24.06%	-2.1	-0.8	0.5	6.6	4.9	1.2	1.0	2.0	-0.2	4.5	1.2	3.3
2002	-13.29%	-0.5	-1.1	2.4	-2.9	-0.8	-5.0	-5.9	1.0	-6.6	4.9	4.2	-3.0
2001	-6.12%	3.3	-6.9	-4.8	5.7	0.9	-1.1	-0.7	-4.0	-6.1	2.3	4.8	1.1
2000	-5.08%	-3.2	2.2	4.6	-4.0	-2.6	3.8	-1.2	5.7	-3.3	-1.4	-6.8	1.8
1999	+17.67%	2.9	-3.3	3.1	3.6	-1.7	3.8	-2.6	-0.7	-1.6	4.9	2.6	5.8
1998	+19.59%	0.7	5.5	3.9	1.0	-1.9	2.9	-1.7	-11.5	5.4	5.4	4.8	5.0
1997	+25.61%	4.2	-0.1	-3.6	3.8	5.6	3.6	6.7	-3.1	4.8	-2.4	2.7	1.6
1996	+16.62%	2.2	0.8	0.7	1.7	2.0	-0.4	-4.1	2.3	4.5	1.6	5.7	-1.2
1995	+31.38%	2.1	3.6	2.2	2.2	3.6	2.4	3.0	1.1	3.0	-0.6	3.5	1.5
1994	-0.79%	2.7	-2.1	-3.9	0.5	0.7	-2.1	2.8	3.3	-1.8	1.2	-2.8	1.1
1993	+10.39%	1.2	0.8	1.9	-1.9	2.3	0.9	-0.0	3.4	0.1	1.3	-1.5	1.5
1992	+8.62%	-0.4	1.1	-1.9	1.2	0.9	-1.1	3.4	-1.3	1.1	0.6	3.1	1.7
1991	+28.11%	4.0	5.4	2.4	0.5	3.2	-3.5	4.0	2.5	-0.5	1.5	-2.8	8.8
1990	-2.40%	-5.7	1.4	1.9	-2.4	7.3	-0.0	-0.5	-7.0	-3.6	-0.5	5.2	2.5
1989	+24.50%	5.2	-1.5	1.7	4.1	3.6	0.5	6.3	1.4	-0.1	-1.7	1.4	1.6
1988	+14.83%	4.1	4.2	-1.4	0.7	-0.3	4.4	-0.6	-2.1	3.4	1.6	-1.4	1.6
1987	+2.34%	10.0	3.8	1.6	-1.9	0.3	3.6	3.6	2.9	-2.1	-17.3	-5.3	5.8

* Note:
Portofolio Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.

In particular, it has been used:

VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2001

BND - Vanguard Total Bond Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007