Data Source: from January 1987 to December 2021

Last Update: 31 December 2021

The JL Collins Simple Path to Wealth Portfolio is exposed for 75% on the Stock Market.

It's a High Risk portfolio and it can be replicated with 2 ETFs.

In the last 10 years, the portfolio obtained a 13.01% compound annual return, with a 10.14% standard deviation.

In the last 25 years, a 8.96% compound annual return, with a 11.68% standard deviation.

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The JL Collins Simple Path to Wealth Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

75% Stocks
25% Fixed Income
0% Commodities

The JL Collins Simple Path to Wealth Portfolio can be replicated with the following ETFs:

Weight Ticker ETF Name Investment Themes
75.00 % VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market Equity, U.S., Large Cap
25.00 % BND Vanguard Total Bond Market Bond, U.S., All-Term
Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns

The JL Collins Simple Path to Wealth Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

JL COLLINS SIMPLE PATH TO WEALTH PORTFOLIO RETURNS (%)
Last Update: 31 December 2021
Swipe left to see all data
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y(*) 5Y(*) 10Y(*) 20Y(*) 25Y(*)
JL Collins Simple Path to Wealth Portfolio +2.91 +7.09 +7.05 +18.79 +20.52 +14.46 +13.01 +8.82 +8.96
--- Inflation Adjusted return +2.43 +4.77 +3.53 +10.89 +16.41 +11.21 +10.66 +6.36 +6.52
Components
VTI
Vanguard Total Stock Market 		+3.79 +9.11 +9.08 +25.67 +25.73 +17.96 +16.29 +9.91 +9.88
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market 		-0.31 -0.04 -0.08 -1.86 +4.78 +3.54 +2.75 +4.09 +4.73
(*) annualized
Portfolio returns are calculated assuming:
  • a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (i.e. at every January 1st)
  • the reinvestment of dividends

Inflation is updated to Dec 2021. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 7.12% , 3Y: 3.53% , 5Y: 2.92% , 10Y: 2.12% , 20Y: 2.31% , 25Y: 2.29%

In 2021, the portfolio granted a 1.65% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the JL Collins Simple Path to Wealth Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

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Historical Returns

Historical returns and stats of JL Collins Simple Path to Wealth Portfolio. Total Returns and Inflation Adjusted Returns are both mentioned.

JL COLLINS SIMPLE PATH TO WEALTH PORTFOLIO
Last Update: 31 December 2021
Swipe left to see all data
Period Return
Dec 2021
update		 Return
Inflation
Adjusted		 Standard
Deviation(*)		 Max
Drawdown		 Months
Pos - Neg
1M
Dec 2021
+2.91%
+2.43%
0.00%
1 - 0
3M
+7.09%
+4.77%
-1.11%
Nov 2021 - Nov 2021
2 - 1
6M
+7.05%
+3.53%
-3.72%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
4 - 2
YTD
+18.79%
+10.89%
7.98%
-3.72%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
9 - 3
75% pos
1Y
+18.79%
+10.89%
7.98%
-3.72%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
9 - 3
75% pos
3Y
+20.52%
annualized
+16.41%
annualized
13.44%
-15.46%
Feb 2020 - Mar 2020
27 - 9
75% pos
5Y
+14.46%
annualized
+11.21%
annualized
11.88%
-15.46%
Feb 2020 - Mar 2020
47 - 13
78% pos
10Y
+13.01%
annualized
+10.66%
annualized
10.14%
-15.46%
Feb 2020 - Mar 2020
90 - 30
75% pos
20Y
+8.82%
annualized
+6.36%
annualized
11.11%
-38.53%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
164 - 76
68% pos
25Y
+8.96%
annualized
+6.52%
annualized
11.68%
-38.53%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
199 - 101
66% pos
MAX
01 Jan 1987
+10.04%
annualized
+7.16%
annualized
11.55%
-38.53%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
281 - 139
67% pos
(*)Annualized St.Dev. of monthly returns

Portfolio efficiency

Is the JL Collins Simple Path to Wealth Portfolio actually efficient, compared to other Lazy Portfolios?

Best Classic Portfolios, with High Risk, ordered by 25 Years annualized return.

25 Years Stats
% Allocation
Portfolio Return▾ Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm.
Simple Path to Wealth
JL Collins		 +8.96% -38.54% 75 25 0
Yale Endowment
David Swensen		 +8.94% -39.46% 70 30 0 Compare
Talmud Portfolio
Roger Gibson		 +8.80% -40.18% 66.67 33.33 0 Compare
Late Sixties and Beyond
Burton Malkiel		 +8.63% -41.80% 71 29 0 Compare
Lazy Portfolio
David Swensen		 +8.41% -40.88% 70 30 0 Compare

See all portfolios

Our overall ratings, assigned to the JL Collins Simple Path to Wealth Portfolio. The portfolio is classified as High Risk.

Very High Risk
Bond weight:
Less than 25%
High Risk
Bond weight:
25% - 49.99%
Medium Risk
Bond weight:
50% - 74.99%
Low Risk
Bond weight:
At least 75%
High Risk
Portfolios		 All
Portfolios
25 Years Ann. Return
(Inflation Adjusted)		 +8.96%
(+6.52%)
Excellent : 4.7 / 5
Excellent : 4.2 / 5
Standard Deviation
over 25 Years		 11.68%
Bad : 1.3 / 5
Average : 3 / 5
Maximum Drawdown
over 25 Years		 -38.53%
Bad : 1.6 / 5
Average : 2.6 / 5
Easy to manage 2 ETFs
Excellent : 4.5 / 5
Excellent : 4.5 / 5
Rating assigned considering all the High Risk Portfolios Rating assigned considering all the Portfolios in the database

Capital Growth

Time Range:

An investment of 1000$, since January 1997, now would be worth 8545.59$, with a total return of 754.56% (8.96% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 4852.40$, with a net total return of 385.24% (6.52% annualized).

Drawdowns

Time Range:

Worst drawdowns since January 1997 - Chart and Data

Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months
-38.53% Nov 2007 Feb 2009 16 Dec 2010 22 38
-30.50% Sep 2000 Sep 2002 25 Dec 2004 27 52
-15.46% Feb 2020 Mar 2020 2 Jul 2020 4 6
-13.02% Jul 1998 Aug 1998 2 Nov 1998 3 5
-12.27% May 2011 Sep 2011 5 Feb 2012 5 10
-10.58% Oct 2018 Dec 2018 3 Apr 2019 4 7
-6.60% Jun 2015 Sep 2015 4 May 2016 8 12
-6.51% Apr 2000 May 2000 2 Aug 2000 3 5
-4.80% Apr 2012 May 2012 2 Aug 2012 3 5
-4.79% Jul 1999 Sep 1999 3 Nov 1999 2 5
-4.59% May 2019 May 2019 1 Jun 2019 1 2
-4.38% Feb 2018 Mar 2018 2 Jul 2018 4 6
-4.25% Sep 2020 Oct 2020 2 Nov 2020 1 3
-3.89% Jun 2007 Jul 2007 2 Sep 2007 2 4
-3.72% Sep 2021 Sep 2021 1 Oct 2021 1 2
-3.67% Feb 1997 Mar 1997 2 May 1997 2 4
-3.25% Feb 1999 Feb 1999 1 Apr 1999 2 3
-3.18% Jan 2000 Jan 2000 1 Mar 2000 2 3
-3.14% Jan 2005 Apr 2005 4 Jun 2005 2 6
-3.09% Aug 1997 Aug 1997 1 Sep 1997 1 2

Rolling Returns ( more details)

JL Collins Simple Path to Wealth Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns

Swipe left to see all data
Return (*) Negative
Periods
Rolling Period Average Best Worst
1 Year
 +10.41% +44.15%
Apr 2020 - Mar 2021 		-32.25%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 		17.36%
2 Years
 +9.96% +30.60%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011 		-18.16%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 		11.84%
3 Years
 +9.71% +25.25%
Apr 1995 - Mar 1998 		-9.99%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003 		12.21%
5 Years
 +9.52% +22.05%
Jan 1995 - Dec 1999 		-3.08%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009 		1.39%
7 Years
 +9.30% +17.50%
Oct 1990 - Sep 1997 		-0.47%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009 		0.30%
10 Years
 +9.08% +16.22%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2000 		+0.03%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009 		0.00%
15 Years
 +8.19% +11.69%
Jan 1987 - Dec 2001 		+5.00%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2015 		0.00%
20 Years
 +8.18% +11.07%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2007 		+5.35%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 		0.00%

* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the JL Collins Simple Path to Wealth Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

JL Collins Simple Path to Wealth Portfolio Seasonality: in which months is it better to invest?

In the table below, the average monthly return is represented.

Below each return, it's also mentioned the probability of obtaining a positive monthly result (Win %).

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.

Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Win %		 1.01
63% 		0.63
66% 		0.70
69% 		1.59
77% 		1.01
71% 		0.51
63% 		1.18
60% 		0.12
63% 		-0.02
54% 		0.44
63% 		1.37
71% 		1.74
83%
Best
Year		 10.0
1987 		5.5
1998 		6.2
2009 		10.0
2020 		7.2
1990 		5.7
2019 		6.6
1997 		5.7
2000 		6.9
2010 		8.2
2011 		9.1
2020 		8.8
1991
Worst
Year		 -6.6
2009 		-7.9
2009 		-10.5
2020 		-4.0
2000 		-5.7
2010 		-6.0
2008 		-5.9
2002 		-11.5
1998 		-6.9
2008 		-17.3
1987 		-6.8
2000 		-6.5
2018
Statistics calculated for the period Jan 1987 - Dec 2021

For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.

Monthly/Yearly Returns

JL Collins Simple Path to Wealth Portfolio monthly and yearly returns: how is the distribution of the returns recorded so far?

MONTHLY RETURNS HISTOGRAM
281 Positive Months (67%) - 139 Negative Months (33%)
Jan 1987 - Dec 2021
Swipe left to see all data
Yearly Return(%)
Monthly Return(%)
Year Total Infl.Adj Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2021
 +18.79 +10.89 -0.5 2.0 2.5 4.1 0.4 2.1 1.6 2.2 -3.7 5.2 -1.1 2.9
2020
 +17.70 +16.19 0.4 -5.5 -10.5 10.0 4.1 1.9 4.6 5.0 -2.7 -1.6 9.1 3.6
2019
 +25.21 +22.44 6.7 2.7 1.5 3.0 -4.6 5.7 1.1 -1.0 1.2 1.7 2.9 2.2
2018
 -3.94 -5.75 3.6 -3.1 -1.3 0.1 2.2 0.5 2.5 2.8 0.0 -5.9 1.7 -6.5
2017
 +16.80 +14.40 1.4 2.9 0.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 1.5 0.3 1.8 1.7 2.3 1.0
2016
 +10.25 +8.03 -4.0 0.2 5.5 0.6 1.3 0.7 3.1 0.1 0.2 -1.9 2.7 1.6
2015
 +0.41 -0.23 -1.5 3.9 -0.7 0.4 0.9 -1.5 1.5 -4.7 -2.0 5.8 0.4 -1.6
2014
 +10.86 +10.14 -2.0 3.7 0.3 0.2 1.8 2.0 -1.6 3.4 -1.7 2.2 2.1 0.0
2013
 +24.56 +22.71 3.9 1.1 3.0 1.5 1.4 -1.5 4.6 -2.6 3.3 3.5 2.1 2.1
2012
 +13.13 +11.17 4.0 3.2 2.2 -0.2 -4.6 3.1 1.0 2.1 2.0 -1.4 0.7 0.8
2011
 +2.71 -0.35 1.6 2.9 0.3 2.6 -0.5 -1.5 -1.3 -4.1 -5.4 8.2 -0.3 1.0
2010
 +14.62 +12.99 -2.4 2.6 4.7 1.9 -5.7 -4.0 5.3 -3.1 6.9 3.1 0.2 5.0
2009
 +22.58 +19.22 -6.6 -7.9 6.2 8.2 4.3 0.4 6.2 3.1 3.4 -2.0 4.7 1.9
2008
 -26.02 -26.00 -4.3 -1.8 -0.5 3.5 1.2 -6.0 -0.4 1.3 -6.9 -13.2 -4.1 3.0
2007
 +5.76 +1.58 1.4 -0.9 0.8 3.1 2.6 -1.4 -2.5 1.4 3.1 1.6 -3.0 -0.5
2006
 +12.84 +10.06 2.4 0.3 1.3 0.7 -2.5 0.1 0.2 2.1 1.9 2.9 2.0 0.8
2005
 +5.33 +1.93 -1.7 1.4 -1.5 -1.3 3.1 0.7 3.0 -0.5 0.3 -2.0 3.6 0.3
2004
 +10.65 +7.07 2.2 1.3 -0.6 -2.3 1.0 1.7 -2.5 0.5 1.3 1.6 3.4 2.8
2003
 +24.06 +21.58 -2.1 -0.8 0.5 6.6 4.8 1.2 1.0 2.0 -0.2 4.5 1.2 3.3
2002
 -13.29 -15.39 -0.5 -1.1 2.4 -2.9 -0.8 -5.0 -5.9 1.0 -6.6 4.8 4.2 -3.0
2001
 -6.12 -7.60 3.3 -6.9 -4.8 5.7 0.9 -1.1 -0.7 -4.0 -6.1 2.3 4.8 1.1
2000
 -5.08 -8.24 -3.2 2.2 4.6 -4.0 -2.6 3.8 -1.2 5.7 -3.3 -1.4 -6.8 1.8
1999
 +17.67 +14.60 2.9 -3.2 3.1 3.6 -1.7 3.8 -2.6 -0.7 -1.6 4.9 2.6 5.8
1998
 +19.59 +17.70 0.7 5.5 3.9 1.0 -1.9 2.9 -1.7 -11.5 5.4 5.4 4.8 5.0
1997
 +25.61 +23.51 4.2 -0.1 -3.6 3.8 5.6 3.6 6.6 -3.1 4.8 -2.4 2.7 1.6
1996
 +16.62 +12.81 2.2 0.8 0.7 1.7 2.0 -0.4 -4.1 2.3 4.5 1.6 5.7 -1.2
1995
 +31.38 +28.14 2.1 3.6 2.2 2.2 3.6 2.4 3.0 1.1 3.0 -0.6 3.5 1.5
1994
 -0.79 -3.30 2.7 -2.1 -3.9 0.5 0.7 -2.1 2.8 3.3 -1.8 1.2 -2.8 1.1
1993
 +10.39 +7.37 1.2 0.8 1.9 -1.9 2.3 0.9 0.0 3.4 0.1 1.3 -1.5 1.5
1992
 +8.62 +5.49 -0.4 1.1 -1.9 1.2 0.9 -1.1 3.4 -1.3 1.1 0.5 3.1 1.7
1991
 +28.11 +24.40 4.0 5.4 2.4 0.5 3.2 -3.5 4.0 2.5 -0.5 1.5 -2.8 8.8
1990
 -2.40 -8.14 -5.7 1.4 1.9 -2.3 7.2 0.0 -0.5 -7.0 -3.6 -0.5 5.2 2.5
1989
 +24.50 +18.98 5.2 -1.5 1.7 4.1 3.6 0.5 6.3 1.4 -0.1 -1.7 1.4 1.6
1988
 +14.83 +9.97 4.1 4.2 -1.4 0.7 -0.3 4.4 -0.6 -2.1 3.3 1.6 -1.4 1.6
1987
 +2.34 -1.91 10.0 3.8 1.6 -1.9 0.3 3.6 3.6 2.9 -2.1 -17.3 -5.3 5.8

* Note:
Portofolio Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.

In particular, it has been used:

  • VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2001
  • BND - Vanguard Total Bond Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
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