Data Source: from June 1991 to September 2021
Last Update: 30 September 2021
The Scott Burns Margaritaville Portfolio is exposed for 67% on the Stock Market.
It's a High Risk portfolio and it can be replicated with 3 ETFs.
In the last 10 years, the portfolio obtained a 9.39% compound annual return, with a 9.36% standard deviation.
In the last 25 years, a 7.61% compound annual return, with a 10.83% standard deviation.
In 2020, the portfolio granted a 1.73% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Scott Burns Margaritaville Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.
Asset Allocation and ETFs
The Scott Burns Margaritaville Portfolio has the following asset allocation:
The Scott Burns Margaritaville Portfolio can be replicated with the following ETFs:
| Weight | Ticker | ETF Name | Investment Themes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34.00 % | VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market | Equity, U.S., Large Cap | |
| 33.00 % | VEU | Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US | Equity, Global ex-US, Large Cap | |
| 33.00 % | TIP | iShares TIPS Bond | Bond, U.S., All-Term |
Portfolio and ETF Returns
The Scott Burns Margaritaville Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y(*) | 5Y(*) | 10Y(*) | 20Y(*) | 25Y(*) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Burns Margaritaville Portfolio | -2.96 | -0.57 | +5.04 | +19.89 | +10.71 | +10.21 | +9.39 | +7.91 | +7.61 |
| Components | |||||||||
|
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market |
-4.46 | -0.03 | +8.10 | +32.16 | +16.05 | +16.88 | +16.60 | +10.07 | +9.79 |
|
VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US |
-3.33 | -3.26 | +1.87 | +23.82 | +8.34 | +9.04 | +7.99 | +7.18 | +5.40 |
|
TIP iShares TIPS Bond |
-0.78 | +1.71 | +4.97 | +4.88 | +7.23 | +4.13 | +2.97 | +4.99 | +5.88 |
- a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (i.e. at every January 1st)
- the reinvestment of dividends
If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Scott Burns Margaritaville Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.
Historical Returns
Scott Burns Margaritaville Portfolio - Historical returns and stats.
| Period | Returns Sep 2021 |
Standard Deviation * |
Max Drawdown |
Months Pos - Neg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1M
|
-2.96%
|
-2.96%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
0 - 1 | |
|
3M
|
-0.57%
|
-2.96%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
2 - 1 | |
|
6M
|
+5.04%
|
-2.96%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
5 - 1 | |
|
YTD
|
+8.26%
|
-2.96%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
8 - 1 | |
|
1Y
|
+19.89%
|
9.29%
|
-2.96%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
10 - 2 |
|
3Y
|
+10.71%
annualized
|
12.44%
|
-14.40%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
|
26 - 10 |
|
5Y
|
+10.21%
annualized
|
10.07%
|
-14.40%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
|
45 - 15 |
|
10Y
|
+9.39%
annualized
|
9.36%
|
-14.40%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
|
84 - 36 |
|
20Y
|
+7.91%
annualized
|
10.67%
|
-38.70%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
|
160 - 80 |
|
25Y
|
+7.61%
annualized
|
10.83%
|
-38.70%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
|
194 - 106 |
|
MAX
01 Jun 1991
|
+8.05%
annualized
|
10.37%
|
-38.70%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
|
241 - 123 |
Best Classic Portfolios, with High Risk, ordered by 25 Years annualized return.
25 Years Stats |
% Allocation |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | Return▾ | Drawdown | Stocks | Bonds | Comm. | ||
| Yale Endowment David Swensen |
+8.94% | -39.46% | 70 | 30 | 0 | Compare | |
| Simple Path to Wealth JL Collins |
+8.92% | -38.54% | 75 | 25 | 0 | Compare | |
| Talmud Portfolio Roger Gibson |
+8.85% | -40.18% | 66.67 | 33.33 | 0 | Compare | |
| Late Sixties and Beyond Burton Malkiel |
+8.64% | -41.80% | 71 | 29 | 0 | Compare | |
| Lazy Portfolio David Swensen |
+8.43% | -40.88% | 70 | 30 | 0 | Compare | |
Capital Growth
Drawdowns
Rolling Returns ( more details)
Scott Burns Margaritaville Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns
| Return (*) | Negative Periods |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rolling Period | Average | Best | Worst | |
| 1 Year |
+8.66% |
+42.86% Mar 2009 - Feb 2010 |
-34.38% Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 |
17.85% |
| 2 Years |
+8.10% |
+29.52% Mar 2009 - Feb 2011 |
-16.83% Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
14.66% |
| 3 Years |
+7.78% |
+20.56% Mar 2009 - Feb 2012 |
-8.17% Mar 2006 - Feb 2009 |
10.94% |
| 5 Years |
+7.63% |
+16.22% Mar 2009 - Feb 2014 |
-1.07% Mar 2004 - Feb 2009 |
0.33% |
| 7 Years |
+7.40% |
+13.69% Jan 1993 - Dec 1999 |
+2.40% Mar 2002 - Feb 2009 |
0.00% |
| 10 Years |
+7.12% |
+10.43% Mar 2009 - Feb 2019 |
+2.12% Mar 1999 - Feb 2009 |
0.00% |
| 15 Years |
+7.15% |
+10.25% Nov 1992 - Oct 2007 |
+5.02% Mar 1994 - Feb 2009 |
0.00% |
| 20 Years |
+7.10% |
+8.36% Jul 1991 - Jun 2011 |
+4.90% Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 |
0.00% |
* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods
If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Scott Burns Margaritaville Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.
Seasonality and Yearly/Monthly Returns
Scott Burns Margaritaville Portfolio Seasonality: in which months is it better to invest?
In the table below, the average monthly return is represented.
Below each return, it's also mentioned the probability of obtaining a positive monthly result (Win %).
Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
| Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Average Win % |
0.36 63% |
0.22 60% |
0.67 67% |
1.90 83% |
0.48 63% |
0.21 58% |
1.02 65% |
0.09 68% |
0.08 58% |
0.65 63% |
1.02 70% |
1.66 77% |
| Best Year |
5.9 2019 |
4.7 1998 |
8.0 2009 |
7.3 2020 |
7.5 2009 |
4.7 2019 |
6.3 2009 |
4.1 1993 |
6.7 2010 |
7.8 2011 |
8.3 2020 |
6.8 1991 |
| Worst Year |
-7.0 2009 |
-7.2 2009 |
-9.9 2020 |
-3.7 2000 |
-6.2 2010 |
-4.8 2008 |
-5.2 2002 |
-9.4 1998 |
-8.2 2008 |
-15.3 2008 |
-4.4 1993 |
-4.7 2018 |
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Monthly Returns of Scott Burns Margaritaville Portfolio
| Months | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Return | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| 2021 |
+8.26% | 0.1 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.5 | -3.0 | |||
| 2020 |
+14.40% | -0.4 | -4.5 | -9.9 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 4.1 | -1.9 | -1.5 | 8.3 | 3.8 |
| 2019 |
+20.39% | 5.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 2.4 | -3.6 | 4.7 | 0.0 | -0.8 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2.5 |
| 2018 |
-6.92% | 3.4 | -3.4 | -0.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | -0.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | -0.1 | -5.8 | 1.3 | -4.7 |
| 2017 |
+17.22% | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| 2016 |
+7.53% | -3.3 | -0.4 | 5.6 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 0.2 | 0.8 | -1.5 | 0.1 | 1.3 |
| 2015 |
-2.03% | 0.1 | 3.4 | -1.0 | 2.0 | -0.3 | -1.9 | 0.7 | -5.0 | -2.5 | 4.9 | -0.3 | -1.9 |
| 2014 |
+3.95% | -2.3 | 3.6 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 1.6 | -1.2 | 1.9 | -3.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | -1.6 |
| 2013 |
+13.25% | 2.5 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 2.0 | -1.5 | -2.8 | 4.0 | -2.3 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| 2012 |
+13.94% | 4.7 | 3.0 | 0.5 | -0.3 | -5.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 2.2 | -0.2 | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| 2011 |
+0.08% | 1.0 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 3.6 | -1.3 | -0.7 | -0.3 | -4.5 | -6.5 | 7.8 | -0.7 | -0.3 |
| 2010 |
+11.85% | -2.6 | 1.1 | 4.4 | 1.0 | -6.2 | -2.0 | 5.5 | -2.0 | 6.7 | 3.4 | -1.7 | 4.6 |
| 2009 |
+25.18% | -7.0 | -7.2 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 7.5 | -0.5 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 4.1 | -1.7 | 4.5 | 0.9 |
| 2008 |
-26.90% | -3.5 | -0.4 | -0.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | -4.8 | -1.6 | -0.8 | -8.2 | -15.3 | -3.9 | 5.6 |
| 2007 |
+10.88% | 1.0 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 1.9 | -0.5 | -0.9 | 0.5 | 3.9 | 3.0 | -1.9 | -1.0 |
| 2006 |
+14.22% | 3.4 | -0.2 | 1.1 | 2.0 | -2.6 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2005 |
+8.11% | -1.4 | 2.1 | -1.6 | -0.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.8 | -2.4 | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| 2004 |
+13.95% | 1.8 | 2.0 | 0.4 | -3.4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | -2.1 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 3.9 | 3.3 |
| 2003 |
+26.41% | -2.0 | -0.1 | -0.9 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 4.4 |
| 2002 |
-6.46% | -1.6 | 0.2 | 2.9 | -0.5 | 0.5 | -3.2 | -5.2 | 1.6 | -5.4 | 2.6 | 3.2 | -1.2 |
| 2001 |
-7.87% | 2.3 | -5.2 | -4.2 | 5.3 | -0.4 | -1.8 | -0.7 | -2.6 | -5.8 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 |
| 2000 |
-2.92% | -3.3 | 2.6 | 4.0 | -3.7 | -2.1 | 3.6 | -1.7 | 3.5 | -3.1 | -1.1 | -3.6 | 2.5 |
| 1999 |
+16.49% | 1.3 | -2.9 | 3.0 | 3.5 | -2.8 | 3.0 | -0.6 | -0.3 | -0.2 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 5.7 |
| 1998 |
+16.12% | 1.7 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | -1.1 | 1.5 | -0.4 | -9.4 | 2.4 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 3.3 |
| 1997 |
+14.48% | 1.0 | 0.5 | -2.3 | 2.4 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 4.8 | -4.7 | 4.6 | -3.5 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| 1996 |
+9.11% | 1.1 | -0.5 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.4 | -3.0 | 0.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 4.4 | -1.7 |
| 1995 |
+21.08% | 0.3 | 0.5 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 3.0 | 0.1 | 2.3 | -0.7 | 2.9 | 2.3 |
| 1994 |
+1.10% | 5.2 | -1.7 | -3.9 | 1.0 | 0.1 | -0.4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | -2.5 | 1.4 | -3.1 | 1.3 |
| 1993 |
+18.69% | 1.1 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 4.1 | -1.0 | 1.1 | -4.4 | 2.9 |
| 1992 |
+1.10% | -1.9 | -0.3 | -3.6 | 0.1 | 3.4 | -1.5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | -2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
* Note: Portofolio Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
In particular, it has been used:
- VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2001
- VEU - Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
- TIP - iShares TIPS Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2003