Data Source: from January 1985 to February 2023 (~38 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 28 February 2023
Live Update: Mar 20 2023, 04:00PM Eastern Time
Consolidated Returns as of 28 February 2023
Live Update: Mar 20 2023, 04:00PM Eastern Time
PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
0.19%
1 Day
Mar 20 2023, 04:00PM Eastern Time
0.43%
Current Month
March 2023
The Rob Arnott Portfolio is a Medium Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 8 ETFs.
It's exposed for 30% on the Stock Market and for 10% on Commodities.
In the last 30 Years, the Rob Arnott Portfolio obtained a 6.60% compound annual return, with a 7.10% standard deviation.
Asset Allocation and ETFs
The Rob Arnott Portfolio has the following asset allocation:
The Rob Arnott Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:
| Weight | Ticker | ETF Name | Investment Themes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00 % | VEU | Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US | Equity, Global ex-US, Large Cap | |
| 10.00 % | VNQ | Vanguard Real Estate | Real Estate, U.S. | |
| 10.00 % | VV | Vanguard Large-Cap | Equity, U.S., Large Cap | |
| 20.00 % | BNDX | Vanguard Total International Bond | Bond, Developed Markets, All-Term | |
| 20.00 % | LQD | iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond | Bond, U.S., All-Term | |
| 10.00 % | TLT | iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond | Bond, U.S., Long-Term | |
| 10.00 % | TIP | iShares TIPS Bond | Bond, U.S., All-Term | |
| 10.00 % | DBC | Invesco DB Commodity Tracking | Commodity, Broad Diversified |
Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.
Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Feb 28, 2023
The Rob Arnott Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.
Portfolio returns are calculated in USD, assuming:
- No fees or capital gain taxes
- a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (at every January 1st). How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
- the reinvestment of dividends
ROB ARNOTT PORTFOLIO RETURNS
Consolidated returns as of 28 February 2023
Live Update: Mar 20 2023, 04:00PM Eastern Time
Swipe left to see all data
| Chg (%) | Return (%) | Return (%) as of Feb 28, 2023 |
||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Day | Time ET(*) | Mar 2023 | 1M | 6M | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | 30Y |
MAX
(~38Y) |
|
| Rob Arnott Portfolio | 0.19 | 0.43 | -3.52 | -2.23 | -10.55 | 3.52 | 3.54 | 6.60 | 8.21 | |
| US Inflation Adjusted return | -4.06 | -3.75 | -15.64 | -0.32 | 0.89 | 3.99 | 5.27 | |||
| Components | ||||||||||
|
VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US |
1.01 |
04:00PM Mar 20 2023 |
-1.77 | -4.39 | 7.42 | -7.28 | 1.97 | 4.24 | 5.50 | 8.03 |
|
VNQ Vanguard Real Estate |
1.14 |
04:00PM Mar 20 2023 |
-4.96 | -5.86 | -5.50 | -13.27 | 7.07 | 6.31 | 8.64 | 7.02 |
|
VV Vanguard Large-Cap |
0.87 |
04:00PM Mar 20 2023 |
-0.36 | -2.40 | 0.97 | -8.75 | 9.59 | 12.07 | 9.71 | 8.90 |
|
BNDX Vanguard Total International Bond |
-0.08 |
04:00PM Mar 20 2023 |
2.83 | -1.50 | -1.94 | -9.67 | 0.01 | 1.50 | 4.87 | 6.58 |
|
LQD iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond |
-0.30 |
04:00PM Mar 20 2023 |
2.01 | -4.17 | -1.27 | -12.35 | 1.05 | 1.96 | 5.16 | 4.62 |
|
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond |
-0.88 |
04:00PM Mar 20 2023 |
4.39 | -5.09 | -8.03 | -25.69 | -1.07 | 0.82 | 5.52 | 4.84 |
|
TIP iShares TIPS Bond |
0.09 |
04:00PM Mar 20 2023 |
1.44 | -1.35 | -4.27 | -11.42 | 2.21 | 0.98 | 5.20 | 6.82 |
|
DBC Invesco DB Commodity Tracking |
0.40 |
04:00PM Mar 20 2023 |
-4.17 | -4.46 | -7.06 | 0.14 | 8.19 | -0.97 | 3.76 | 2.63 |
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1985
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Feb 2023. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 6.04% , 5Y: 3.86% , 10Y: 2.63% , 30Y: 2.51%
Live update: World Markets and Indexes
Portfolio Metrics as of Feb 28, 2023
Metrics of Rob Arnott Portfolio, updated as of 28 February 2023.
Portfolio metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
- No fees or capital gain taxes
- a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (at every January 1st). How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
- the reinvestment of dividends
ROB ARNOTT PORTFOLIO
Portfolio Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 1985 - 28 February 2023 (~38 years)
Swipe left to see all data
| Metrics as of Feb 28, 2023 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y |
MAX
(~38Y) |
|
| Portfolio Return (%) |
-3.52 | -1.43 | -2.23 | -10.55 | 1.46 | 3.52 | 3.54 | 5.88 | 6.60 | 8.21 |
| US Inflation (%) | 0.56 | 1.05 | 1.58 | 6.04 | 5.16 | 3.86 | 2.63 | 2.51 | 2.51 | 2.79 |
| Infl. Adjusted Return (%) |
-4.06 | -2.46 | -3.75 | -15.64 | -3.52 | -0.32 | 0.89 | 3.29 | 3.99 | 5.27 |
| Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized. | ||||||||||
| RISK INDICATORS | ||||||||||
| Standard Deviation (%) | 13.57 | 10.93 | 9.10 | 7.41 | 7.88 | 7.10 | 7.11 | |||
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.93 | 0.07 | 0.26 | 0.39 | 0.60 | 0.62 | 0.59 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | -1.37 | 0.09 | 0.34 | 0.51 | 0.77 | 0.81 | 0.79 | |||
| MAXIMUM DRAWDOWN | ||||||||||
| Drawdown Depth (%) | -15.15 | -17.86 | -17.86 | -17.86 | -24.27 | -24.27 | -24.27 | |||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2022 04 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2008 06 | 2008 06 | 2008 06 | |||
| Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2009 02 | 2009 02 | 2009 02 | |||
| Start to Bottom (# months) | 6 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | |||
| Start to Recovery (# months) in progress |
> 11
|
> 14
|
> 14
|
> 14
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
|||
| ROLLING PERIOD RETURNS - Annualized | ||||||||||
| Best Return (%) | 36.91 | 19.67 | 17.05 | 12.18 | 11.18 | 9.57 | ||||
| Worst Return (%) | -22.41 | -3.13 | 1.31 | 3.21 | 5.86 | 6.60 | ||||
| % Positive Periods | 89% | 99% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||||
| MONTHS | ||||||||||
| Positive | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 40 | 79 | 162 | 246 | 318 |
| Negative | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 41 | 78 | 114 | 140 |
| % Positive | 0% | 33% | 50% | 50% | 61% | 67% | 66% | 68% | 68% | 69% |
| WITHDRAWAL RATES (WR) | ||||||||||
| Safe WR (%) | 34.36 | 21.94 | 11.35 | 8.17 | 6.90 | 8.98 | ||||
| Perpetual WR (%) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.89 | 3.18 | 3.84 | 5.01 | ||||
- Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio
- Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean
- Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
- Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
- Maximum Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.
- Rolling Returns: returns over a time frame (best, worst, % of positive returns).
- Pos./Neg. Months: number of months with positive/negative return.
- Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the original portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money (dollar amount withdrawal).
- Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year, while retaining the inflation adjusted portfolio balance (percentage withdrawal).
Portfolio Components Correlation
Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.
Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1.
If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS
Monthly correlations as of 28 February 2023
Swipe left to see all data
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | VEU | VNQ | VV | BNDX | LQD | TLT | TIP | DBC | |
| VEU |
1.00
|
0.83
|
0.84
|
0.84
|
0.93
|
0.81
|
0.82
|
0.41
|
|
| VNQ |
0.83
|
1.00
|
0.90
|
0.79
|
0.76
|
0.66
|
0.86
|
0.53
|
|
| VV |
0.84
|
0.90
|
1.00
|
0.84
|
0.79
|
0.59
|
0.86
|
0.44
|
|
| BNDX |
0.84
|
0.79
|
0.84
|
1.00
|
0.91
|
0.81
|
0.89
|
0.11
|
|
| LQD |
0.93
|
0.76
|
0.79
|
0.91
|
1.00
|
0.91
|
0.83
|
0.18
|
|
| TLT |
0.81
|
0.66
|
0.59
|
0.81
|
0.91
|
1.00
|
0.68
|
-0.07
|
|
| TIP |
0.82
|
0.86
|
0.86
|
0.89
|
0.83
|
0.68
|
1.00
|
0.33
|
|
| DBC |
0.41
|
0.53
|
0.44
|
0.11
|
0.18
|
-0.07
|
0.33
|
1.00
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | VEU | VNQ | VV | BNDX | LQD | TLT | TIP | DBC | |
| VEU |
1.00
|
0.77
|
0.87
|
0.46
|
0.69
|
0.06
|
0.52
|
0.61
|
|
| VNQ |
0.77
|
1.00
|
0.84
|
0.58
|
0.67
|
0.22
|
0.66
|
0.48
|
|
| VV |
0.87
|
0.84
|
1.00
|
0.48
|
0.63
|
0.06
|
0.60
|
0.51
|
|
| BNDX |
0.46
|
0.58
|
0.48
|
1.00
|
0.87
|
0.67
|
0.83
|
-0.07
|
|
| LQD |
0.69
|
0.67
|
0.63
|
0.87
|
1.00
|
0.66
|
0.81
|
0.16
|
|
| TLT |
0.06
|
0.22
|
0.06
|
0.67
|
0.66
|
1.00
|
0.64
|
-0.36
|
|
| TIP |
0.52
|
0.66
|
0.60
|
0.83
|
0.81
|
0.64
|
1.00
|
0.13
|
|
| DBC |
0.61
|
0.48
|
0.51
|
-0.07
|
0.16
|
-0.36
|
0.13
|
1.00
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | VEU | VNQ | VV | BNDX | LQD | TLT | TIP | DBC | |
| VEU |
1.00
|
0.64
|
0.85
|
0.36
|
0.60
|
0.02
|
0.46
|
0.53
|
|
| VNQ |
0.64
|
1.00
|
0.72
|
0.59
|
0.68
|
0.36
|
0.64
|
0.25
|
|
| VV |
0.85
|
0.72
|
1.00
|
0.39
|
0.54
|
-0.01
|
0.44
|
0.43
|
|
| BNDX |
0.36
|
0.59
|
0.39
|
1.00
|
0.85
|
0.72
|
0.79
|
-0.13
|
|
| LQD |
0.60
|
0.68
|
0.54
|
0.85
|
1.00
|
0.69
|
0.80
|
0.11
|
|
| TLT |
0.02
|
0.36
|
-0.01
|
0.72
|
0.69
|
1.00
|
0.67
|
-0.36
|
|
| TIP |
0.46
|
0.64
|
0.44
|
0.79
|
0.80
|
0.67
|
1.00
|
0.12
|
|
| DBC |
0.53
|
0.25
|
0.43
|
-0.13
|
0.11
|
-0.36
|
0.12
|
1.00
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | VEU | VNQ | VV | BNDX | LQD | TLT | TIP | DBC | |
| VEU |
1.00
|
0.58
|
0.81
|
0.16
|
0.33
|
-0.14
|
0.20
|
0.45
|
|
| VNQ |
0.58
|
1.00
|
0.61
|
0.28
|
0.42
|
0.07
|
0.32
|
0.27
|
|
| VV |
0.81
|
0.61
|
1.00
|
0.14
|
0.31
|
-0.13
|
0.20
|
0.32
|
|
| BNDX |
0.16
|
0.28
|
0.14
|
1.00
|
0.68
|
0.50
|
0.61
|
0.08
|
|
| LQD |
0.33
|
0.42
|
0.31
|
0.68
|
1.00
|
0.65
|
0.73
|
0.14
|
|
| TLT |
-0.14
|
0.07
|
-0.13
|
0.50
|
0.65
|
1.00
|
0.66
|
-0.17
|
|
| TIP |
0.20
|
0.32
|
0.20
|
0.61
|
0.73
|
0.66
|
1.00
|
0.26
|
|
| DBC |
0.45
|
0.27
|
0.32
|
0.08
|
0.14
|
-0.17
|
0.26
|
1.00
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | VEU | VNQ | VV | BNDX | LQD | TLT | TIP | DBC | |
| VEU |
1.00
|
0.52
|
0.72
|
0.20
|
0.31
|
-0.04
|
0.21
|
0.33
|
|
| VNQ |
0.52
|
1.00
|
0.60
|
0.26
|
0.39
|
0.10
|
0.29
|
0.19
|
|
| VV |
0.72
|
0.60
|
1.00
|
0.20
|
0.32
|
-0.03
|
0.24
|
0.22
|
|
| BNDX |
0.20
|
0.26
|
0.20
|
1.00
|
0.74
|
0.58
|
0.71
|
0.03
|
|
| LQD |
0.31
|
0.39
|
0.32
|
0.74
|
1.00
|
0.71
|
0.81
|
0.09
|
|
| TLT |
-0.04
|
0.10
|
-0.03
|
0.58
|
0.71
|
1.00
|
0.73
|
-0.16
|
|
| TIP |
0.21
|
0.29
|
0.24
|
0.71
|
0.81
|
0.73
|
1.00
|
0.16
|
|
| DBC |
0.33
|
0.19
|
0.22
|
0.03
|
0.09
|
-0.16
|
0.16
|
1.00
|
Portfolio Dividends
In 2022, the Rob Arnott Portfolio granted a 2.31% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Rob Arnott Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.
Readings that may interest you
Capital Growth as of Feb 28, 2023
An investment of 1000$, since March 1993,
now would be worth 6797.00$, with a total return of 579.70% (6.60% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 3233.12$, with a net total return of 223.31% (3.99% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 3233.12$, with a net total return of 223.31% (3.99% annualized).
An investment of 1000$, since January 1985,
now would be worth 20308.72$, with a total return of 1930.87% (8.21% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 7108.46$, with a net total return of 610.85% (5.27% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 7108.46$, with a net total return of 610.85% (5.27% annualized).
Drawdowns
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period |
Recovery period |
Total |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months |
| -24.27% | Jun 2008 | Feb 2009 | 9 | Mar 2010 | 13 | 22 |
| -17.86% | Jan 2022 | Sep 2022 | 9 | in progress | 5 | 14 |
| -8.72% | Feb 2020 | Mar 2020 | 2 | Jul 2020 | 4 | 6 |
| -7.37% | Feb 1994 | Nov 1994 | 10 | May 1995 | 6 | 16 |
| -6.23% | Mar 2015 | Jan 2016 | 11 | Jun 2016 | 5 | 16 |
| -5.66% | May 2013 | Jun 2013 | 2 | Feb 2014 | 8 | 10 |
| -4.84% | Sep 2018 | Dec 2018 | 4 | Feb 2019 | 2 | 6 |
| -4.70% | Apr 2004 | Apr 2004 | 1 | Sep 2004 | 5 | 6 |
| -4.10% | Jul 1998 | Aug 1998 | 2 | Sep 1998 | 1 | 3 |
| -3.86% | Aug 2016 | Nov 2016 | 4 | May 2017 | 6 | 10 |
| -3.51% | Aug 2011 | Sep 2011 | 2 | Oct 2011 | 1 | 3 |
| -2.99% | May 2010 | May 2010 | 1 | Jul 2010 | 2 | 3 |
| -2.79% | Sep 2014 | Sep 2014 | 1 | Jan 2015 | 4 | 5 |
| -2.77% | Feb 2018 | Feb 2018 | 1 | Aug 2018 | 6 | 7 |
| -2.73% | Nov 1993 | Nov 1993 | 1 | Jan 1994 | 2 | 3 |
| -2.71% | Feb 1999 | Feb 1999 | 1 | Apr 1999 | 2 | 3 |
| -2.50% | Oct 2005 | Oct 2005 | 1 | Dec 2005 | 2 | 3 |
| -2.47% | Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | Mar 2002 | 6 | 7 |
| -2.42% | Jun 2003 | Jul 2003 | 2 | Sep 2003 | 2 | 4 |
| -2.41% | Sep 2020 | Oct 2020 | 2 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 3 |
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period |
Recovery period |
Total |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months |
| -24.27% | Jun 2008 | Feb 2009 | 9 | Mar 2010 | 13 | 22 |
| -17.86% | Jan 2022 | Sep 2022 | 9 | in progress | 5 | 14 |
| -8.72% | Feb 2020 | Mar 2020 | 2 | Jul 2020 | 4 | 6 |
| -7.37% | Feb 1994 | Nov 1994 | 10 | May 1995 | 6 | 16 |
| -6.23% | Mar 2015 | Jan 2016 | 11 | Jun 2016 | 5 | 16 |
| -6.11% | Jan 1990 | Apr 1990 | 4 | Jul 1990 | 3 | 7 |
| -5.66% | May 2013 | Jun 2013 | 2 | Feb 2014 | 8 | 10 |
| -5.21% | Sep 1987 | Nov 1987 | 3 | Jan 1988 | 2 | 5 |
| -4.84% | Sep 2018 | Dec 2018 | 4 | Feb 2019 | 2 | 6 |
| -4.70% | Apr 2004 | Apr 2004 | 1 | Sep 2004 | 5 | 6 |
| -4.10% | Jul 1998 | Aug 1998 | 2 | Sep 1998 | 1 | 3 |
| -3.86% | Aug 2016 | Nov 2016 | 4 | May 2017 | 6 | 10 |
| -3.51% | Aug 2011 | Sep 2011 | 2 | Oct 2011 | 1 | 3 |
| -3.06% | Sep 1986 | Sep 1986 | 1 | Dec 1986 | 3 | 4 |
| -2.99% | May 2010 | May 2010 | 1 | Jul 2010 | 2 | 3 |
| -2.87% | Jan 1992 | Mar 1992 | 3 | May 1992 | 2 | 5 |
| -2.79% | Sep 2014 | Sep 2014 | 1 | Jan 2015 | 4 | 5 |
| -2.77% | Feb 2018 | Feb 2018 | 1 | Aug 2018 | 6 | 7 |
| -2.73% | Nov 1993 | Nov 1993 | 1 | Jan 1994 | 2 | 3 |
| -2.71% | Feb 1999 | Feb 1999 | 1 | Apr 1999 | 2 | 3 |
Rolling Returns ( more details)
Rob Arnott Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns
Swipe left to see all data
| Rolling Period |
Return (*) | Negative Periods |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average (%) | Best (%) | Worst (%) | ||
| 1 Year |
8.53 |
36.91 May 1985 - Apr 1986 |
-22.41 Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 |
10.51% |
| 2 Years |
8.30 |
26.35 Mar 1985 - Feb 1987 |
-8.96 Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
4.37% |
| 3 Years |
8.12 |
19.67 Mar 1985 - Feb 1988 |
-3.13 Mar 2006 - Feb 2009 |
1.18% |
| 5 Years |
7.99 |
17.05 Jan 1985 - Dec 1989 |
1.31 Mar 2004 - Feb 2009 |
0.00% |
| 7 Years |
7.95 |
15.13 Jan 1985 - Dec 1991 |
3.20 Apr 2013 - Mar 2020 |
0.00% |
| 10 Years |
7.93 |
12.18 Jan 1985 - Dec 1994 |
3.21 Oct 2012 - Sep 2022 |
0.00% |
| 15 Years |
7.91 |
11.62 Jan 1985 - Dec 1999 |
4.20 Nov 2007 - Oct 2022 |
0.00% |
| 20 Years |
7.99 |
11.18 Jan 1985 - Dec 2004 |
5.86 Oct 2002 - Sep 2022 |
0.00% |
| 30 Years |
7.91 |
9.57 Jan 1985 - Dec 2014 |
6.60 Mar 1993 - Feb 2023 |
0.00% |
(*) Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods
If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Rob Arnott Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.
Seasonality
In which months is it better to invest in Rob Arnott Portfolio?
Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
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| Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Average Gain Frequency |
1.48
60% |
-1.00
40% |
-0.68
80% |
0.76
60% |
0.79
80% |
0.43
80% |
1.98
100% |
-0.07
80% |
-1.96
20% |
0.12
60% |
1.80
80% |
0.24
60% |
| Capital Growth on monthly avg returns | ||||||||||||
|
100
|
101.48
|
100.47
|
99.79
|
100.54
|
101.33
|
101.77
|
103.78
|
103.71
|
101.68
|
101.80
|
103.63
|
103.88
|
| Best |
5.1 2023 |
0.7 2019 |
2.3 2019 |
4.1 2020 |
2.1 2020 |
3.0 2019 |
3.8 2022 |
2.0 2019 |
0.2 2019 |
2.9 2021 |
5.1 2020 |
2.5 2021 |
| Worst |
-2.5 2022 |
-3.5 2023 |
-7.2 2020 |
-4.2 2022 |
-0.5 2019 |
-4.7 2022 |
0.4 2019 |
-3.9 2022 |
-7.0 2022 |
-3.3 2018 |
-1.5 2021 |
-2.8 2022 |
Monthly Seasonality over the period Mar 2018 - Feb 2023
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| Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Average Gain Frequency |
1.03
70% |
-0.32
60% |
0.08
70% |
0.89
70% |
0.27
70% |
0.16
70% |
1.37
90% |
-0.21
60% |
-1.06
40% |
0.56
70% |
0.72
60% |
0.26
60% |
| Capital Growth on monthly avg returns | ||||||||||||
|
100
|
101.03
|
100.70
|
100.78
|
101.68
|
101.96
|
102.13
|
103.53
|
103.31
|
102.22
|
102.79
|
103.53
|
103.80
|
| Best |
5.1 2023 |
2.4 2014 |
3.9 2016 |
4.1 2020 |
2.1 2020 |
3.1 2016 |
3.8 2022 |
2.0 2019 |
1.7 2013 |
2.9 2021 |
5.1 2020 |
2.5 2021 |
| Worst |
-2.5 2022 |
-3.5 2023 |
-7.2 2020 |
-4.2 2022 |
-3.0 2013 |
-4.7 2022 |
-0.6 2014 |
-3.9 2022 |
-7.0 2022 |
-3.3 2018 |
-1.8 2016 |
-2.8 2022 |
Monthly Seasonality over the period Mar 2013 - Feb 2023
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| Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Average Gain Frequency |
0.79
67% |
0.32
62% |
0.64
63% |
0.93
82% |
0.70
66% |
0.58
74% |
1.07
74% |
0.55
68% |
0.14
66% |
0.37
68% |
0.69
63% |
1.41
82% |
| Capital Growth on monthly avg returns | ||||||||||||
|
100
|
100.79
|
101.10
|
101.75
|
102.70
|
103.42
|
104.02
|
105.13
|
105.71
|
105.86
|
106.25
|
106.98
|
108.48
|
| Best |
5.1 2023 |
6.0 1986 |
6.0 1986 |
4.5 2009 |
5.7 1985 |
4.7 1986 |
4.7 2009 |
4.6 1986 |
4.3 1998 |
4.2 2011 |
5.1 2020 |
8.2 2008 |
| Worst |
-5.7 2009 |
-5.9 2009 |
-7.2 2020 |
-4.7 2004 |
-3.0 2013 |
-4.7 2022 |
-2.3 2003 |
-3.9 2022 |
-7.0 2022 |
-11.6 2008 |
-2.7 1993 |
-2.8 2022 |
Monthly Seasonality over the period Jan 1985 - Feb 2023
Monthly/Yearly Returns
Rob Arnott Portfolio data source starts from January 1985: let's focus on monthly and yearly returns.
We are providing two different views:
- Histogram: it shows the distribution of the returns recorded so far
- Plain Table: it shows the detailed monthly and yearly returns
MONTHLY RETURNS HISTOGRAM
Jan 1985 - Feb 2023
318 Positive Months (69%) - 140 Negative Months (31%)
MONTHLY RETURNS TABLE
Jan 1985 - Feb 2023
(Scroll down to see all data)
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Yearly Return(%) |
Monthly Return(%) |
|||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Infl.Adj | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| 2023 |
+1.42 | +0.06 | 5.1 | -3.5 | ||||||||||
| 2022 |
-14.81 | -19.98 | -2.5 | -1.0 | 0.2 | -4.2 | 0.2 | -4.7 | 3.8 | -3.9 | -7.0 | 1.6 | 5.0 | -2.8 |
| 2021 |
+11.04 | +3.74 | -0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.3 | -1.7 | 2.9 | -1.5 | 2.5 |
| 2020 |
+7.98 | +6.53 | 0.8 | -1.6 | -7.2 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 0.5 | -1.0 | -1.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 |
| 2019 |
+16.67 | +14.07 | 4.5 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | -0.5 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.1 |
| 2018 |
-4.12 | -5.92 | 0.2 | -2.8 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | -0.3 | -3.3 | 0.0 | -1.4 |
| 2017 |
+9.02 | +6.77 | 0.5 | 1.5 | -0.4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| 2016 |
+7.14 | +4.96 | -0.9 | 0.6 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | -0.3 | 0.2 | -2.0 | -1.8 | 1.5 |
| 2015 |
-3.26 | -3.96 | 2.2 | 0.0 | -0.5 | -0.1 | -1.0 | -1.9 | 0.4 | -2.6 | -0.1 | 2.3 | -0.8 | -1.1 |
| 2014 |
+7.59 | +6.78 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | -0.6 | 2.0 | -2.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | -0.4 |
| 2013 |
+1.41 | -0.09 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 2.1 | -3.0 | -2.7 | 1.7 | -1.6 | 1.7 | 2.0 | -0.6 | 0.3 |
| 2012 |
+10.55 | +8.66 | 3.1 | 1.4 | -0.1 | 0.9 | -2.2 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 2011 |
+7.73 | +4.63 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 3.1 | -0.1 | -1.5 | 1.9 | -0.8 | -2.8 | 4.2 | -1.1 | 1.8 |
| 2010 |
+11.89 | +10.24 | -1.2 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | -3.0 | 0.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | -1.5 | 2.0 |
| 2009 |
+14.59 | +11.55 | -5.7 | -5.9 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 0.2 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 2.8 | -0.5 | 3.2 | 0.0 |
| 2008 |
-11.48 | -11.56 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 0.2 | -1.3 | -1.3 | -0.4 | -6.4 | -11.6 | -1.7 | 8.2 |
| 2007 |
+7.64 | +3.42 | 0.8 | 1.2 | -0.1 | 1.2 | -0.2 | -1.3 | -0.3 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 2.6 | -0.5 | 0.0 |
| 2006 |
+8.97 | +6.27 | 1.6 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 0.5 | -1.0 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | -1.3 |
| 2005 |
+7.74 | +4.18 | -0.5 | 1.2 | -0.4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 0.3 | -2.5 | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| 2004 |
+11.93 | +8.40 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.6 | -4.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| 2003 |
+17.00 | +14.84 | -0.1 | 1.9 | -1.4 | 2.6 | 4.9 | -0.1 | -2.3 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 3.5 |
| 2002 |
+8.16 | +5.65 | -0.5 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | -1.0 | 2.4 | 0.1 | -0.7 | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| 2001 |
+0.06 | -1.46 | 1.0 | -1.2 | -1.1 | 1.6 | 0.1 | -0.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | -2.5 | 1.5 | -0.2 | -0.2 |
| 2000 |
+12.87 | +9.17 | -0.3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | -0.6 | 0.8 | 2.9 | 0.1 | 2.7 | -0.4 | -0.4 | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| 1999 |
+7.22 | +4.42 | 1.0 | -2.7 | 2.8 | 2.6 | -2.0 | 1.0 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 2.3 |
| 1998 |
+6.53 | +4.84 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | -0.3 | 0.6 | -1.3 | -2.9 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 1.4 |
| 1997 |
+7.20 | +5.40 | -0.6 | -0.6 | -1.1 | 0.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 2.9 | -2.1 | 3.7 | -0.2 | -0.5 | 0.3 |
| 1996 |
+11.02 | +7.45 | 0.3 | -0.6 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 1.4 | -0.8 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 0.1 |
| 1995 |
+21.23 | +18.22 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 2.7 | 3.1 |
| 1994 |
-2.84 | -5.38 | 3.2 | -2.2 | -3.1 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.5 | 1.6 | -0.2 | -1.9 | 0.1 | -1.4 | 1.7 |
| 1993 |
+13.77 | +10.72 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 3.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | -2.7 | 1.3 |
| 1992 |
+6.56 | +3.56 | -1.3 | -0.1 | -1.5 | 0.5 | 3.0 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.9 | -1.7 | 0.9 | 2.5 |
| 1991 |
+18.67 | +15.14 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | -2.0 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | -1.0 | 5.0 |
| 1990 |
+2.80 | -3.12 | -3.1 | -0.7 | -0.6 | -1.9 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 1.6 | -2.6 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| 1989 |
+17.53 | +12.31 | 2.1 | -0.4 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 3.4 | -1.2 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| 1988 |
+13.48 | +8.68 | 4.2 | 2.2 | -0.1 | 0.2 | -0.6 | 1.9 | -0.2 | -1.0 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 0.1 | 1.4 |
| 1987 |
+6.41 | +1.89 | 4.5 | 0.9 | 1.9 | -0.6 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | -1.9 | -3.1 | -0.3 | 1.9 |
| 1986 |
+21.76 | +20.43 | -0.2 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 1.4 | -2.5 | 4.7 | 0.3 | 4.6 | -3.1 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 1985 |
+27.17 | +22.52 | 4.1 | -1.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 5.7 | 1.1 | -0.6 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 4.0 |
Portofolio Returns, up to December 2013, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
In particular, it has been used:
- VEU - Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
- VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
- VV - Vanguard Large-Cap: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
- BNDX - Vanguard Total International Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2013
- LQD - iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2002
- TLT - iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2002
- TIP - iShares TIPS Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2003
- DBC - Invesco DB Commodity Tracking: simulated historical serie, up to December 2006
Portfolio efficiency
Compared to the Rob Arnott Portfolio, the following portfolios granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.
Swipe left to see all data
30 Years Stats (%) |
% Allocation |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | Return▾ | Dev.Std | Drawdown | Stocks | Bonds | Comm | ||
|
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Momentum |
+7.82 | 6.84 | -21.11 | 40 | 60 | 0 | ||
|
Golden Butterfly |
+7.66 | 7.52 | -17.79 | 40 | 40 | 20 | ||
|
All Weather Portfolio Ray Dalio |
+7.19 | 7.18 | -20.19 | 30 | 55 | 15 | ||
|
Simplified Permanent Portfolio |
+6.80 | 6.75 | -16.43 | 25 | 50 | 25 | ||
|
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 |
+6.80 | 6.82 | -19.17 | 40 | 60 | 0 | ||
|
High Yield Bonds Income |
+6.61 | 8.69 | -23.97 | 0 | 100 | 0 | ||
|
Rob Arnott Portfolio Rob Arnott |
+6.60 | 7.10 | -24.27 | 30 | 60 | 10 | ||
Here's a list containing the Best Classic Portfolios, with the highest returns over 30 Years and Medium Risk categorization.
Swipe left to see all data
30 Years Stats (%) |
% Allocation |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | Return▾ | Dev.Std | Drawdown | Stocks | Bonds | Comm | ||
|
Couch Potato Scott Burns |
+7.85 | 8.66 | -27.04 | 50 | 50 | 0 | ||
|
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Momentum |
+7.82 | 6.84 | -21.11 | 40 | 60 | 0 | ||
|
Robo Advisor 50 Betterment |
+7.45 | 9.24 | -30.72 | 49.9 | 50.1 | 0 | ||
|
All Weather Portfolio Ray Dalio |
+7.19 | 7.18 | -20.19 | 30 | 55 | 15 | ||
|
Global Market Portfolio Credit Suisse |
+7.07 | 8.13 | -25.90 | 45 | 55 | 0 | ||
