Data Source: from January 1985 to October 2022 (~38 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 October 2022
Live Update: Nov 29 2022, 03:00PM Eastern Time
PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
0.13%
1 Day
Nov 29 2022, 03:00PM Eastern Time
3.75%
Current Month
November 2022

The Rob Arnott Portfolio is a Medium Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 8 ETFs.

It's exposed for 30% on the Stock Market and for 10% on Commodities.

In the last 30 Years, the Rob Arnott Portfolio obtained a 6.75% compound annual return, with a 6.96% standard deviation.

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Rob Arnott Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

30% Stocks
60% Fixed Income
10% Commodities

The Rob Arnott Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight Ticker ETF Name Investment Themes
10.00 %
VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Equity, Global ex-US, Large Cap
10.00 %
VNQ Vanguard Real Estate Real Estate, U.S.
10.00 %
VV Vanguard Large-Cap Equity, U.S., Large Cap
20.00 %
BNDX Vanguard Total International Bond Bond, Developed Markets, All-Term
20.00 %
LQD iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond Bond, U.S., All-Term
10.00 %
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Bond, U.S., Long-Term
10.00 %
TIP iShares TIPS Bond Bond, U.S., All-Term
10.00 %
DBC Invesco DB Commodity Tracking Commodity, Broad Diversified
Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Oct 31, 2022

The Rob Arnott Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Portfolio returns are calculated in USD, assuming: November 2022 return is calculated on the hypothesis of a newly built portfolio, with the starting asset allocation.
ROB ARNOTT PORTFOLIO RETURNS
Consolidated returns as of 31 October 2022
Live Update: Nov 29 2022, 03:00PM Eastern Time
Swipe left to see all data
  Chg (%) Return (%)
Return (%) as of Oct 31, 2022
  1 Day Time ET(*) Nov 2022 1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~38Y)
Rob Arnott Portfolio 0.13 3.75 1.64 -10.02 -15.66 2.70 3.40 6.75 8.19
US Inflation Adjusted return 1.23 -12.70 -21.73 -1.11 0.82 4.14 5.25
Components
VEU
Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US
0.77 02:59PM
Nov 29 2022
10.79 3.40 -13.38 -24.31 -0.30 3.59 5.18 6.31
VNQ
Vanguard Real Estate
1.25 03:00PM
Nov 29 2022
3.36 3.51 -18.78 -21.44 4.00 6.69 9.03 10.60
VV
Vanguard Large-Cap
-0.36 02:56PM
Nov 29 2022
1.94 7.89 -5.89 -16.73 10.24 12.65 9.85 10.35
BNDX
Vanguard Total International Bond
0.29 02:59PM
Nov 29 2022
2.16 0.54 -5.17 -12.15 -0.04 1.61 5.17 6.62
LQD
iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond
-0.34 02:59PM
Nov 29 2022
5.52 -0.75 -8.56 -21.95 -0.57 1.29 5.20 5.60
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond
-1.01 03:00PM
Nov 29 2022
6.55 -5.97 -18.59 -33.64 -3.07 -0.14 5.61 7.16
TIP
iShares TIPS Bond
-0.40 03:00PM
Nov 29 2022
0.38 1.42 -8.80 -12.43 1.79 0.80 5.47 5.86
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Tracking
1.14 02:59PM
Nov 29 2022
-0.92 5.06 -8.75 17.66 10.06 -0.64 3.97 8.53
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1985
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)

US Inflation is updated to Oct 2022. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 7.75% , 5Y: 3.85% , 10Y: 2.57% , 30Y: 2.51%

Portfolio Metrics as of Oct 31, 2022

Metrics of Rob Arnott Portfolio, updated as of 31 October 2022.

Portfolio metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
ROB ARNOTT PORTFOLIO
Portfolio Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 1985 - 31 October 2022 (~38 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of Oct 31, 2022
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
(~38Y)
Portfolio
Return (%)
1.64 -9.19 -10.02 -15.66 0.52 2.70 3.40 5.98 6.75 8.19
US Inflation (%) 0.41 0.59 3.08 7.75 5.01 3.85 2.57 2.52 2.51 2.79
Infl. Adjusted
Return (%)
1.23 -9.72 -12.70 -21.73 -4.28 -1.11 0.82 3.38 4.14 5.25
Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 10.71 9.87 8.42 6.93 7.68 6.96 7.01
Sharpe Ratio -1.53 0.01 0.20 0.42 0.64 0.66 0.60
Sortino Ratio -2.13 0.01 0.26 0.53 0.81 0.85 0.79
MAXIMUM DRAWDOWN
Drawdown Depth (%) -17.86 -17.86 -17.86 -17.86 -24.27 -24.27 -24.27
Start (yyyy mm) 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2008 06 2008 06 2008 06
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2009 02 2009 02
Start to Bottom (# months) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
Start to Recovery (# months) in progress
> 10
> 10
> 10
> 10
22
22
22
ROLLING PERIOD RETURNS - Annualized
Best Return (%) 36.91 19.67 17.05 12.18 11.18 9.57
Worst Return (%) -22.41 -3.13 1.31 3.21 5.86 6.63
% Positive Periods 90% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100%
MONTHS
Positive 1 1 3 5 23 41 81 163 248 316
Negative 0 2 3 7 13 19 39 77 112 138
% Positive 100% 33% 50% 42% 64% 68% 68% 68% 69% 70%
WITHDRAWAL RATES (WR)
Safe WR (%) 35.68 21.65 11.31 8.13 6.92 9.09
Perpetual WR (%) 0.00 0.00 0.81 3.27 3.98 4.99
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Maximum Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.
  • Rolling Returns: returns over a time frame (best, worst, % of positive returns).
  • Pos./Neg. Months: number of months with positive/negative return.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the original portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money (dollar amount withdrawal).
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year, while retaining the inflation adjusted portfolio balance (percentage withdrawal).

Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.

Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1.

If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.

Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS
Monthly correlations as of 31 October 2022
Swipe left to see all data
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Asset VEU VNQ VV BNDX LQD TLT TIP DBC
VEU
1.00
0.82
0.91
0.63
0.79
0.35
0.76
0.53
VNQ
0.82
1.00
0.88
0.57
0.64
0.34
0.75
0.38
VV
0.91
0.88
1.00
0.73
0.80
0.42
0.79
0.28
BNDX
0.63
0.57
0.73
1.00
0.88
0.74
0.87
-0.14
LQD
0.79
0.64
0.80
0.88
1.00
0.77
0.82
0.02
TLT
0.35
0.34
0.42
0.74
0.77
1.00
0.65
-0.34
TIP
0.76
0.75
0.79
0.87
0.82
0.65
1.00
0.22
DBC
0.53
0.38
0.28
-0.14
0.02
-0.34
0.22
1.00
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Asset VEU VNQ VV BNDX LQD TLT TIP DBC
VEU
1.00
0.74
0.89
0.36
0.61
-0.09
0.48
0.65
VNQ
0.74
1.00
0.82
0.51
0.64
0.15
0.64
0.47
VV
0.89
0.82
1.00
0.42
0.61
-0.02
0.56
0.51
BNDX
0.36
0.51
0.42
1.00
0.85
0.62
0.83
-0.12
LQD
0.61
0.64
0.61
0.85
1.00
0.61
0.82
0.15
TLT
-0.09
0.15
-0.02
0.62
0.61
1.00
0.63
-0.40
TIP
0.48
0.64
0.56
0.83
0.82
0.63
1.00
0.11
DBC
0.65
0.47
0.51
-0.12
0.15
-0.40
0.11
1.00
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Asset VEU VNQ VV BNDX LQD TLT TIP DBC
VEU
1.00
0.62
0.85
0.29
0.53
-0.09
0.43
0.54
VNQ
0.62
1.00
0.70
0.55
0.65
0.30
0.61
0.24
VV
0.85
0.70
1.00
0.33
0.51
-0.08
0.41
0.42
BNDX
0.29
0.55
0.33
1.00
0.84
0.69
0.78
-0.18
LQD
0.53
0.65
0.51
0.84
1.00
0.66
0.80
0.08
TLT
-0.09
0.30
-0.08
0.69
0.66
1.00
0.66
-0.40
TIP
0.43
0.61
0.41
0.78
0.80
0.66
1.00
0.10
DBC
0.54
0.24
0.42
-0.18
0.08
-0.40
0.10
1.00
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Asset VEU VNQ VV BNDX LQD TLT TIP DBC
VEU
1.00
0.58
0.81
0.14
0.31
-0.17
0.19
0.45
VNQ
0.58
1.00
0.60
0.26
0.41
0.05
0.31
0.27
VV
0.81
0.60
1.00
0.12
0.30
-0.16
0.19
0.32
BNDX
0.14
0.26
0.12
1.00
0.67
0.49
0.61
0.07
LQD
0.31
0.41
0.30
0.67
1.00
0.63
0.74
0.14
TLT
-0.17
0.05
-0.16
0.49
0.63
1.00
0.66
-0.18
TIP
0.19
0.31
0.19
0.61
0.74
0.66
1.00
0.26
DBC
0.45
0.27
0.32
0.07
0.14
-0.18
0.26
1.00
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Asset VEU VNQ VV BNDX LQD TLT TIP DBC
VEU
1.00
0.52
0.72
0.19
0.29
-0.07
0.20
0.33
VNQ
0.52
1.00
0.60
0.25
0.37
0.08
0.29
0.19
VV
0.72
0.60
1.00
0.18
0.31
-0.04
0.23
0.22
BNDX
0.19
0.25
0.18
1.00
0.74
0.57
0.71
0.02
LQD
0.29
0.37
0.31
0.74
1.00
0.70
0.82
0.08
TLT
-0.07
0.08
-0.04
0.57
0.70
1.00
0.73
-0.17
TIP
0.20
0.29
0.23
0.71
0.82
0.73
1.00
0.16
DBC
0.33
0.19
0.22
0.02
0.08
-0.17
0.16
1.00

Portfolio Dividends

In 2021, the Rob Arnott Portfolio granted a 2.57% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Rob Arnott Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Capital Growth as of Oct 31, 2022

An investment of 1000$, since November 1992, now would be worth 7105.61$, with a total return of 610.56% (6.75% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 3380.99$, with a net total return of 238.10% (4.14% annualized).
An investment of 1000$, since January 1985, now would be worth 19626.21$, with a total return of 1862.62% (8.19% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 6934.75$, with a net total return of 593.48% (5.25% annualized).

Drawdowns

Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months
-24.27% Jun 2008 Feb 2009 9 Mar 2010 13 22
-17.86% Jan 2022 Sep 2022 9 in progress 1 10
-8.72% Feb 2020 Mar 2020 2 Jul 2020 4 6
-7.37% Feb 1994 Nov 1994 10 May 1995 6 16
-6.23% Mar 2015 Jan 2016 11 Jun 2016 5 16
-5.66% May 2013 Jun 2013 2 Feb 2014 8 10
-4.84% Sep 2018 Dec 2018 4 Feb 2019 2 6
-4.70% Apr 2004 Apr 2004 1 Sep 2004 5 6
-4.10% Jul 1998 Aug 1998 2 Sep 1998 1 3
-3.86% Aug 2016 Nov 2016 4 May 2017 6 10
-3.51% Aug 2011 Sep 2011 2 Oct 2011 1 3
-2.99% May 2010 May 2010 1 Jul 2010 2 3
-2.79% Sep 2014 Sep 2014 1 Jan 2015 4 5
-2.77% Feb 2018 Feb 2018 1 Aug 2018 6 7
-2.73% Nov 1993 Nov 1993 1 Jan 1994 2 3
-2.71% Feb 1999 Feb 1999 1 Apr 1999 2 3
-2.50% Oct 2005 Oct 2005 1 Dec 2005 2 3
-2.47% Sep 2001 Sep 2001 1 Mar 2002 6 7
-2.42% Jun 2003 Jul 2003 2 Sep 2003 2 4
-2.41% Sep 2020 Oct 2020 2 Nov 2020 1 3
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months
-24.27% Jun 2008 Feb 2009 9 Mar 2010 13 22
-17.86% Jan 2022 Sep 2022 9 in progress 1 10
-8.72% Feb 2020 Mar 2020 2 Jul 2020 4 6
-7.37% Feb 1994 Nov 1994 10 May 1995 6 16
-6.23% Mar 2015 Jan 2016 11 Jun 2016 5 16
-6.11% Jan 1990 Apr 1990 4 Jul 1990 3 7
-5.66% May 2013 Jun 2013 2 Feb 2014 8 10
-5.21% Sep 1987 Nov 1987 3 Jan 1988 2 5
-4.84% Sep 2018 Dec 2018 4 Feb 2019 2 6
-4.70% Apr 2004 Apr 2004 1 Sep 2004 5 6
-4.10% Jul 1998 Aug 1998 2 Sep 1998 1 3
-3.86% Aug 2016 Nov 2016 4 May 2017 6 10
-3.51% Aug 2011 Sep 2011 2 Oct 2011 1 3
-3.06% Sep 1986 Sep 1986 1 Dec 1986 3 4
-2.99% May 2010 May 2010 1 Jul 2010 2 3
-2.87% Jan 1992 Mar 1992 3 May 1992 2 5
-2.79% Sep 2014 Sep 2014 1 Jan 2015 4 5
-2.77% Feb 2018 Feb 2018 1 Aug 2018 6 7
-2.73% Nov 1993 Nov 1993 1 Jan 1994 2 3
-2.71% Feb 1999 Feb 1999 1 Apr 1999 2 3

Rolling Returns ( more details)

Rob Arnott Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns

Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Return (*) Negative
Periods
Average (%) Best (%) Worst (%)
1 Year
8.71 36.91
May 1985 - Apr 1986
-22.41
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
9.71%
2 Years
8.39 26.35
Mar 1985 - Feb 1987
-8.96
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
3.48%
3 Years
8.19 19.67
Mar 1985 - Feb 1988
-3.13
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009
1.19%
5 Years
8.04 17.05
Jan 1985 - Dec 1989
1.31
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009
0.00%
7 Years
7.98 15.13
Jan 1985 - Dec 1991
3.20
Apr 2013 - Mar 2020
0.00%
10 Years
7.98 12.18
Jan 1985 - Dec 1994
3.21
Oct 2012 - Sep 2022
0.00%
15 Years
7.96 11.62
Jan 1985 - Dec 1999
4.20
Nov 2007 - Oct 2022
0.00%
20 Years
8.03 11.18
Jan 1985 - Dec 2004
5.86
Oct 2002 - Sep 2022
0.00%
30 Years
7.96 9.57
Jan 1985 - Dec 2014
6.63
Oct 1992 - Sep 2022
0.00%
(*) Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Rob Arnott Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Rob Arnott Portfolio?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.

For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
0.51
60%
-0.85
40%
-0.68
80%
0.76
60%
0.79
80%
0.43
80%
1.98
100%
-0.07
80%
-1.96
20%
0.12
60%
0.98
80%
1.04
80%
 Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100
100.51
99.66
98.98
99.73
100.51
100.94
102.94
102.87
100.85
100.97
101.95
103.01
Best 4.5
2019
0.7
2019
2.3
2019
4.1
2020
2.1
2020
3.0
2019
3.8
2022
2.0
2019
0.2
2019
2.9
2021
5.1
2020
2.5
2021
Worst -2.5
2022
-2.8
2018
-7.2
2020
-4.2
2022
-0.5
2019
-4.7
2022
0.4
2019
-3.9
2022
-7.0
2022
-3.3
2018
-1.5
2021
-1.4
2018
Monthly Seasonality over the period Nov 2017 - Oct 2022
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
0.58
70%
0.05
70%
0.08
70%
0.89
70%
0.27
70%
0.16
70%
1.37
90%
-0.21
60%
-1.06
40%
0.56
70%
0.29
60%
0.60
70%
 Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100
100.58
100.63
100.71
101.61
101.89
102.05
103.46
103.24
102.15
102.71
103.01
103.63
Best 4.5
2019
2.4
2014
3.9
2016
4.1
2020
2.1
2020
3.1
2016
3.8
2022
2.0
2019
1.7
2013
2.9
2021
5.1
2020
2.5
2021
Worst -2.5
2022
-2.8
2018
-7.2
2020
-4.2
2022
-3.0
2013
-4.7
2022
-0.6
2014
-3.9
2022
-7.0
2022
-3.3
2018
-1.8
2016
-1.4
2018
Monthly Seasonality over the period Nov 2012 - Oct 2022
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
0.67
66%
0.42
63%
0.64
63%
0.93
82%
0.70
66%
0.58
74%
1.07
74%
0.55
68%
0.14
66%
0.37
68%
0.57
62%
1.52
84%
 Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100
100.67
101.09
101.74
102.69
103.41
104.01
105.12
105.70
105.84
106.24
106.84
108.47
Best 4.5
1987
6.0
1986
6.0
1986
4.5
2009
5.7
1985
4.7
1986
4.7
2009
4.6
1986
4.3
1998
4.2
2011
5.1
2020
8.2
2008
Worst -5.7
2009
-5.9
2009
-7.2
2020
-4.7
2004
-3.0
2013
-4.7
2022
-2.3
2003
-3.9
2022
-7.0
2022
-11.6
2008
-2.7
1993
-1.4
2018
Monthly Seasonality over the period Jan 1985 - Oct 2022

Monthly/Yearly Returns

Rob Arnott Portfolio data source starts from January 1985: let's focus on monthly and yearly returns.

We are providing two different views:
  • Histogram: it shows the distribution of the returns recorded so far
  • Plain Table: it shows the detailed monthly and yearly returns
MONTHLY RETURNS HISTOGRAM
Jan 1985 - Oct 2022
316 Positive Months (70%) - 138 Negative Months (30%)
MONTHLY RETURNS TABLE
Jan 1985 - Oct 2022
(Scroll down to see all data)
Swipe left to see all data
Yearly Return(%)
Monthly Return(%)
Year Total Infl.Adj Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2022
-16.50 -21.89 -2.5 -1.0 0.2 -4.2 0.2 -4.7 3.8 -3.9 -7.0 1.6
2021
+11.04 +3.74 -0.5 0.4 0.2 3.1 1.1 1.9 1.9 0.3 -1.7 2.9 -1.5 2.5
2020
+7.98 +6.53 0.8 -1.6 -7.2 4.1 2.1 1.8 3.3 0.5 -1.0 -1.5 5.1 1.8
2019
+16.67 +14.07 4.5 0.7 2.3 0.8 -0.5 3.0 0.4 2.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 1.1
2018
-4.12 -5.92 0.2 -2.8 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 -0.3 -3.3 0.0 -1.4
2017
+9.02 +6.77 0.5 1.5 -0.4 0.6 0.9 0.2 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.9 0.8 1.2
2016
+7.14 +4.96 -0.9 0.6 3.9 1.1 0.5 3.1 1.2 -0.3 0.2 -2.0 -1.8 1.5
2015
-3.26 -3.96 2.2 0.0 -0.5 -0.1 -1.0 -1.9 0.4 -2.6 -0.1 2.3 -0.8 -1.1
2014
+7.59 +6.78 0.7 2.4 0.2 1.4 1.5 0.8 -0.6 2.0 -2.8 1.8 0.5 -0.4
2013
+1.41 -0.09 0.7 0.2 0.9 2.1 -3.0 -2.7 1.7 -1.6 1.7 2.0 -0.6 0.3
2012
+10.55 +8.66 3.1 1.4 -0.1 0.9 -2.2 1.8 2.5 1.0 0.7 -0.3 0.7 0.6
2011
+7.73 +4.63 0.8 2.1 0.1 3.1 -0.1 -1.5 1.9 -0.8 -2.8 4.2 -1.1 1.8
2010
+11.89 +10.24 -1.2 1.4 2.3 2.4 -3.0 0.4 3.5 1.1 2.9 1.3 -1.5 2.0
2009
+14.59 +11.55 -5.7 -5.9 3.7 4.5 4.7 0.2 4.7 2.7 2.8 -0.5 3.2 0.0
2008
-11.48 -11.56 0.4 0.8 0.3 1.9 0.2 -1.3 -1.3 -0.4 -6.4 -11.6 -1.7 8.2
2007
+7.64 +3.42 0.8 1.2 -0.1 1.2 -0.2 -1.3 -0.3 1.3 2.9 2.6 -0.5 0.0
2006
+8.97 +6.27 1.6 -0.2 -0.1 0.5 -1.0 0.4 1.8 1.8 0.4 2.2 2.6 -1.3
2005
+7.74 +4.18 -0.5 1.2 -0.4 0.8 1.4 1.5 0.8 1.8 0.3 -2.5 1.4 1.8
2004
+11.93 +8.40 1.7 2.4 1.6 -4.7 1.3 0.4 0.3 2.5 1.3 2.0 1.1 1.8
2003
+17.00 +14.84 -0.1 1.9 -1.4 2.6 4.9 -0.1 -2.3 1.7 2.9 1.3 1.0 3.5
2002
+8.16 +5.65 -0.5 1.1 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.1 -1.0 2.4 0.1 -0.7 1.3 2.1
2001
+0.06 -1.46 1.0 -1.2 -1.1 1.6 0.1 -0.5 1.2 0.4 -2.5 1.5 -0.2 -0.2
2000
+12.87 +9.17 -0.3 1.6 2.6 -0.6 0.8 2.9 0.1 2.7 -0.4 -0.4 1.5 1.9
1999
+7.22 +4.42 1.0 -2.7 2.8 2.6 -2.0 1.0 -0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 1.0 2.3
1998
+6.53 +4.84 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.2 -0.3 0.6 -1.3 -2.9 4.3 1.7 0.2 1.4
1997
+7.20 +5.40 -0.6 -0.6 -1.1 0.9 2.7 1.9 2.9 -2.1 3.7 -0.2 -0.5 0.3
1996
+11.02 +7.45 0.3 -0.6 0.5 0.7 0.1 1.4 -0.8 0.8 2.3 1.9 3.8 0.1
1995
+21.23 +18.22 0.4 1.3 1.3 2.0 3.6 0.4 1.3 1.0 1.7 0.6 2.7 3.1
1994
-2.84 -5.38 3.2 -2.2 -3.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.5 1.6 -0.2 -1.9 0.1 -1.4 1.7
1993
+13.77 +10.72 1.9 2.7 2.5 0.5 0.6 1.4 1.4 3.0 0.2 0.3 -2.7 1.3
1992
+6.56 +3.56 -1.3 -0.1 -1.5 0.5 3.0 0.2 2.2 0.8 0.9 -1.7 0.9 2.5
1991
+18.67 +15.14 1.4 2.7 1.3 1.5 0.7 -2.0 2.5 1.8 2.5 0.9 -1.0 5.0
1990
+2.80 -3.12 -3.1 -0.7 -0.6 -1.9 4.1 1.1 1.6 -2.6 1.0 1.0 1.7 1.3
1989
+17.53 +12.31 2.1 -0.4 1.1 2.5 1.6 2.6 3.4 -1.2 1.0 0.8 1.4 1.5
1988
+13.48 +8.68 4.2 2.2 -0.1 0.2 -0.6 1.9 -0.2 -1.0 2.2 2.6 0.1 1.4
1987
+6.41 +1.89 4.5 0.9 1.9 -0.6 0.1 1.7 0.7 0.5 -1.9 -3.1 -0.3 1.9
1986
+21.76 +20.43 -0.2 6.0 6.0 1.4 -2.5 4.7 0.3 4.6 -3.1 0.6 1.7 0.8
1985
+27.17 +22.52 4.1 -1.7 2.4 0.8 5.7 1.1 -0.6 1.6 0.1 3.5 3.6 4.0

Portofolio Returns, up to December 2013, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.

In particular, it has been used:

  • VEU - Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
  • VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
  • VV - Vanguard Large-Cap: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
  • BNDX - Vanguard Total International Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2013
  • LQD - iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2002
  • TLT - iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2002
  • TIP - iShares TIPS Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2003
  • DBC - Invesco DB Commodity Tracking: simulated historical serie, up to December 2006

Portfolio efficiency

Compared to the Rob Arnott Portfolio, the following portfolios granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.

Swipe left to see all data
30 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Return Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Momentum
+8.04 6.77 -21.11 40 60 0
Golden Butterfly
+7.70 7.36 -17.79 40 40 20
All Weather Portfolio
Ray Dalio
+7.29 7.01 -20.19 30 55 15
Stocks/Bonds 40/60
+6.90 6.70 -19.17 40 60 0
Simplified Permanent Portfolio
+6.80 6.61 -16.43 25 50 25
Rob Arnott Portfolio
Rob Arnott
+6.75 6.96 -24.27 30 60 10

Here's a list containing the Best Classic Portfolios, with the highest returns over 30 Years and Medium Risk categorization.

Swipe left to see all data
30 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Return Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Couch Potato
Scott Burns
+8.06 8.58 -27.04 50 50 0
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Momentum
+8.04 6.77 -21.11 40 60 0
Robo Advisor 50
Betterment
+7.53 9.11 -30.72 49.9 50.1 0
All Weather Portfolio
Ray Dalio
+7.29 7.01 -20.19 30 55 15
Global Market Portfolio
Credit Suisse
+7.14 7.93 -25.90 45 55 0
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