Data Source: from January 1978 to December 2021

Last Update: 31 December 2021

The Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio is exposed for 30% on the Stock Market and for 15% on Commodities.

It's a Medium Risk portfolio and it can be replicated with 5 ETFs.

In the last 10 years, the portfolio obtained a 7.05% compound annual return, with a 6.01% standard deviation.

In the last 25 years, a 7.89% compound annual return, with a 6.82% standard deviation.

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

30% Stocks
55% Fixed Income
15% Commodities

The Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio can be replicated with the following ETFs:

Weight Ticker ETF Name Investment Themes
30.00 % VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market Equity, U.S., Large Cap
40.00 % TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Bond, U.S., Long-Term
15.00 % IEI iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond Bond, U.S., Intermediate-Term
7.50 % GLD SPDR Gold Trust Commodity, Gold
7.50 % GSG iShares S&P GSCI Commodity Indexed Trust Commodity, Broad Diversified
Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns

The Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

RAY DALIO ALL WEATHER PORTFOLIO RETURNS (%)
Last Update: 31 December 2021
Swipe left to see all data
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y(*) 5Y(*) 10Y(*) 20Y(*) 25Y(*)
Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio +1.37 +4.47 +5.00 +8.08 +13.58 +9.60 +7.05 +7.99 +7.89
--- Inflation Adjusted return +0.90 +2.21 +1.54 +0.89 +9.70 +6.49 +4.83 +5.55 +5.48
Components
VTI
Vanguard Total Stock Market
+3.79 +9.11 +9.08 +25.67 +25.73 +17.96 +16.29 +9.91 +9.88
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond
-2.01 +3.18 +3.55 -4.60 +8.75 +6.68 +4.51 +6.76 +7.00
IEI
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond
-0.40 -0.91 -1.01 -2.54 +3.28 +2.48 +1.84 +3.90 +4.58
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust
+3.30 +4.10 +3.22 -4.15 +12.13 +9.30 +1.18 +9.51 +6.30
GSG
iShares S&P GSCI Commodity Indexed Trust
+7.21 +1.48 +6.34 +38.77 +6.86 +1.77 -6.35 +0.36 -0.64
(*) annualized
Portfolio returns are calculated assuming:
  • a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (i.e. at every January 1st)
  • the reinvestment of dividends

Inflation is updated to Dec 2021. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 7.12% , 3Y: 3.53% , 5Y: 2.92% , 10Y: 2.12% , 20Y: 2.31% , 25Y: 2.29%

In 2021, the portfolio granted a 1.13% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Historical Returns

Historical returns and stats of Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio. Total Returns and Inflation Adjusted Returns are both mentioned.

RAY DALIO ALL WEATHER PORTFOLIO
Last Update: 31 December 2021
Swipe left to see all data
Period Return
Dec 2021
update
Return
Inflation
Adjusted
Standard
Deviation(*)
Max
Drawdown
Months
Pos - Neg
1M
Dec 2021
+1.37%
+0.90%
0.00%
1 - 0
3M
+4.47%
+2.21%
-0.60%
Nov 2021 - Nov 2021
2 - 1
6M
+5.00%
+1.54%
-2.36%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
4 - 2
YTD
+8.08%
+0.89%
6.73%
-3.71%
Jan 2021 - Mar 2021
7 - 5
58% pos
1Y
+8.08%
+0.89%
6.73%
-3.71%
Jan 2021 - Mar 2021
7 - 5
58% pos
3Y
+13.58%
annualized
+9.70%
annualized
6.94%
-3.74%
Aug 2020 - Oct 2020
26 - 10
72% pos
5Y
+9.60%
annualized
+6.49%
annualized
6.30%
-4.75%
Sep 2018 - Dec 2018
42 - 18
70% pos
10Y
+7.05%
annualized
+4.83%
annualized
6.01%
-6.93%
Feb 2015 - Dec 2015
79 - 41
66% pos
20Y
+7.99%
annualized
+5.55%
annualized
6.80%
-12.18%
Jul 2008 - Feb 2009
163 - 77
68% pos
25Y
+7.89%
annualized
+5.48%
annualized
6.82%
-12.18%
Jul 2008 - Feb 2009
201 - 99
67% pos
MAX
01 Jan 1978
+9.66%
annualized
+5.97%
annualized
7.76%
-12.31%
Dec 1980 - Sep 1981
353 - 175
67% pos
(*)Annualized St.Dev. of monthly returns

Portfolio efficiency

Is the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio actually efficient, compared to other Lazy Portfolios?

Similar portfolios, ordered by 5 Years annualized return.

These portfolios share asset allocation strategy and/or similar asset weights. Comparing their returns and drawdowns, you can get an idea of the risk you are facing implementing one of them.

5 Years Stats
% Allocation
Portfolio Return Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm.
All Weather Portfolio 2x Leveraged
Ray Dalio
+15.78% -11.90% 37.5 55 7.5 Compare
All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin
Ray Dalio
+15.53% -5.17% 30 55 15 Compare
Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin
Harry Browne
+14.78% -4.61% 25 50 25 Compare
Simplified Permanent Portfolio 2x Leveraged
+14.26% -9.99% 25 50 25 Compare
All Weather Portfolio
Ray Dalio
+9.60% -4.76% 30 55 15
Permanent Portfolio
Harry Browne
+8.91% -4.43% 25 50 25 Compare
Simplified Permanent Portfolio
+8.74% -3.82% 25 50 25 Compare

Best Classic Portfolios, with Medium Risk, ordered by 25 Years annualized return.

25 Years Stats
% Allocation
Portfolio Return Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm.
Couch Potato
Scott Burns
+8.33% -27.03% 50 50 0 Compare
All Weather Portfolio
Ray Dalio
+7.89% -12.19% 30 55 15
Robo Advisor 50
Betterment
+7.63% -30.72% 49.9 50.1 0 Compare
Simplified Permanent Portfolio
+7.48% -13.28% 25 50 25 Compare
Stocks/Bonds 40/60
+7.24% -19.17% 40 60 0 Compare

See all portfolios

Our overall ratings, assigned to the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio. The portfolio is classified as Medium Risk.

Very High Risk
Bond weight:
Less than 25%
High Risk
Bond weight:
25% - 49.99%
Medium Risk
Bond weight:
50% - 74.99%
Low Risk
Bond weight:
At least 75%
Medium Risk
Portfolios
All
Portfolios
25 Years Ann. Return
(Inflation Adjusted)
+7.89%
(+5.48%)
Excellent : 4.6 / 5
Good : 3.5 / 5
Standard Deviation
over 25 Years
6.82%
Good : 3.4 / 5
Excellent : 4.1 / 5
Maximum Drawdown
over 25 Years
-12.18%
Excellent : 5 / 5
Excellent : 4.5 / 5
Easy to manage 5 ETFs
Average : 3 / 5
Average : 3 / 5
Rating assigned considering all the Medium Risk Portfolios Rating assigned considering all the Portfolios in the database

Capital Growth

Time Range:

An investment of 1000$, since January 1997, now would be worth 6676.81$, with a total return of 567.68% (7.89% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 3791.26$, with a net total return of 279.13% (5.48% annualized).

Drawdowns

Time Range:

Worst drawdowns since January 1997 - Chart and Data

Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months
-12.18% Jul 2008 Feb 2009 8 Sep 2009 7 15
-6.93% Feb 2015 Dec 2015 11 Jun 2016 6 17
-6.47% Aug 2016 Nov 2016 4 Aug 2017 9 13
-5.10% May 2013 Jun 2013 2 Jan 2014 7 9
-4.83% Jul 1998 Aug 1998 2 Oct 1998 2 4
-4.76% Apr 2004 Apr 2004 1 Sep 2004 5 6
-4.75% Sep 2018 Dec 2018 4 Mar 2019 3 7
-4.74% Jun 2003 Jul 2003 2 Sep 2003 2 4
-4.61% Feb 2001 Mar 2001 2 Aug 2002 17 19
-3.79% Feb 1999 Feb 1999 1 Apr 1999 2 3
-3.74% Aug 2020 Oct 2020 3 Nov 2020 1 4
-3.71% Jan 2021 Mar 2021 3 May 2021 2 5
-2.99% Sep 2005 Oct 2005 2 Dec 2005 2 4
-2.89% Feb 1997 Mar 1997 2 May 1997 2 4
-2.85% Feb 2018 Feb 2018 1 Aug 2018 6 7
-2.44% Sep 2014 Sep 2014 1 Nov 2014 2 3
-2.41% Dec 2009 Jan 2010 2 Mar 2010 2 4
-2.37% May 1999 May 1999 1 Oct 1999 5 6
-2.36% Sep 2021 Sep 2021 1 Oct 2021 1 2
-2.34% Mar 2020 Mar 2020 1 Apr 2020 1 2

Rolling Returns ( more details)

Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns

Swipe left to see all data
Return (*) Negative
Periods
Rolling Period Average Best Worst
1 Year
+9.96% +43.44%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1983
-11.58%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
10.44%
2 Years
+9.75% +32.09%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1986
-1.74%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1982
0.79%
3 Years
+9.63% +24.13%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1987
+1.77%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009
0.00%
5 Years
+9.66% +20.99%
Apr 1982 - Mar 1987
+4.08%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009
0.00%
7 Years
+9.65% +17.40%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1989
+4.37%
Jan 2012 - Dec 2018
0.00%
10 Years
+9.58% +15.23%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1991
+6.03%
Jan 2009 - Dec 2018
0.00%
15 Years
+9.44% +13.74%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997
+6.54%
Jan 2004 - Dec 2018
0.00%
20 Years
+9.37% +12.52%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
+6.64%
Jan 1999 - Dec 2018
0.00%

* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio Seasonality: in which months is it better to invest?

In the table below, the average monthly return is represented.

Below each return, it's also mentioned the probability of obtaining a positive monthly result (Win %).

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.

Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Win %
0.77
75%
0.24
61%
0.43
59%
1.04
73%
0.95
68%
0.85
68%
0.73
61%
1.22
70%
0.55
57%
0.28
64%
1.35
70%
1.16
75%
Best
Year
5.2
1987
7.1
1986
6.8
1986
9.0
1980
6.0
2003
5.3
1980
5.2
1997
8.7
1982
5.0
1998
7.8
1982
7.2
1981
7.5
2008
Worst
Year
-8.2
2009
-4.4
1980
-6.8
1980
-4.8
2004
-4.0
1984
-2.6
2013
-3.9
2003
-3.7
1981
-3.8
1986
-8.5
2008
-2.9
2016
-3.7
1981
Statistics calculated for the period Jan 1978 - Dec 2021

For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.

Monthly/Yearly Returns

Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio monthly and yearly returns: how is the distribution of the returns recorded so far?

MONTHLY RETURNS HISTOGRAM
353 Positive Months (67%) - 175 Negative Months (33%)
Jan 1978 - Dec 2021
Swipe left to see all data
Yearly Return(%)
Monthly Return(%)
Year Total Infl.Adj Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2021
+8.08 +0.89 -1.5 -1.1 -1.2 3.6 1.0 2.2 2.4 0.6 -2.4 3.7 -0.6 1.4
2020
+14.68 +13.20 2.9 0.2 -2.3 3.9 1.4 1.2 4.7 -0.2 -1.3 -2.3 4.2 1.8
2019
+18.22 +15.60 3.6 0.8 2.8 0.6 0.2 3.6 0.5 4.2 -0.8 0.5 0.8 0.3
2018
-3.19 -5.01 0.6 -2.8 0.8 -0.5 1.7 0.3 0.0 1.6 -0.9 -3.9 0.6 -0.6
2017
+11.47 +9.18 1.2 2.0 -0.6 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.8 1.8 -0.4 0.8 1.3 1.5
2016
+5.86 +3.74 0.8 2.1 2.2 1.0 0.4 3.9 1.4 -0.6 -0.2 -2.9 -2.9 0.7
2015
-3.72 -4.33 3.5 -1.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -2.3 0.8 -1.9 -0.4 2.2 -1.3 -1.3
2014
+12.52 +11.79 1.9 2.5 0.1 1.1 1.7 1.3 -1.1 3.3 -2.4 1.6 1.5 0.7
2013
+2.15 +0.63 0.6 0.2 1.3 1.5 -2.6 -2.6 2.0 -1.1 1.2 2.0 -0.3 0.1
2012
+6.72 +4.87 2.5 0.4 -1.0 1.7 0.0 0.7 2.4 1.2 0.0 -1.3 0.9 -0.8
2011
+15.59 +12.16 -0.8 2.4 0.5 3.0 0.5 -2.1 2.2 3.2 1.8 2.0 1.1 0.9
2010
+12.53 +10.93 -0.4 1.6 1.0 2.8 -1.0 1.2 1.6 2.5 2.3 -0.2 -0.4 1.1
2009
+2.34 -0.47 -8.2 -4.2 4.3 -0.1 2.6 -0.2 3.1 2.2 2.7 -1.1 3.9 -2.0
2008
+1.34 +1.36 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 -1.7 0.2 -2.3 -8.5 5.5 7.5
2007
+11.88 +7.46 0.1 1.6 -0.3 1.8 -0.2 -0.9 1.0 1.3 2.8 2.4 1.0 0.6
2006
+6.93 +4.29 1.2 -0.1 -1.1 0.7 -1.2 -0.1 1.6 1.8 0.7 1.9 2.8 -1.5
2005
+8.55 +5.05 0.6 0.6 -0.7 0.9 2.3 1.6 -0.3 2.2 -0.6 -2.4 2.1 2.1
2004
+9.41 +5.87 1.6 2.1 1.3 -4.8 0.6 0.8 -0.2 2.3 1.6 1.8 0.5 1.6
2003
+13.96 +11.68 -0.1 1.2 -1.5 2.9 6.0 -0.8 -3.9 2.2 2.8 1.0 0.9 2.9
2002
+7.77 +5.16 0.2 0.9 0.3 0.8 0.0 -0.9 -0.7 3.3 0.7 -0.2 0.8 2.4
2001
-2.77 -4.31 0.8 -2.0 -2.6 1.5 0.3 -0.5 1.3 -0.4 -1.8 2.6 -1.2 -0.5
2000
+10.15 +6.49 -0.5 2.9 2.7 -2.0 -0.3 3.6 -0.8 4.5 -1.8 0.0 -0.1 1.8
1999
+6.28 +3.51 1.6 -3.8 2.2 2.1 -2.4 1.5 -1.2 0.1 1.4 1.5 1.1 2.2
1998
+11.05 +9.29 1.4 1.2 1.7 0.6 -0.8 2.1 -1.5 -3.3 5.0 1.0 1.6 1.8
1997
+13.54 +11.65 0.8 -0.3 -2.6 2.6 2.9 1.7 5.2 -2.3 3.5 0.0 0.7 0.9
1996
+8.27 +4.73 1.2 -1.6 -0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 -2.1 0.7 3.2 2.2 4.3 -1.5
1995
+27.44 +24.29 1.6 2.8 1.6 1.8 4.6 1.4 0.7 1.5 2.1 1.1 2.8 2.5
1994
-3.28 -5.73 2.4 -2.7 -3.2 -0.4 0.5 -1.0 2.4 0.6 -1.9 0.1 -1.3 1.4
1993
+12.02 +8.95 1.9 1.8 1.2 -0.1 1.3 2.0 0.9 2.5 -0.1 0.8 -2.0 1.1
1992
+6.76 +3.69 -1.4 0.6 -1.5 0.6 1.8 0.2 3.4 -0.5 1.4 -1.1 1.2 1.9
1991
+17.98 +14.57 1.0 2.5 1.2 1.0 1.4 -1.9 2.6 2.4 1.3 1.0 -1.2 5.7
1990
+3.85 -2.26 -3.5 0.2 -0.1 -2.2 4.7 0.6 1.2 -2.9 1.7 -0.5 3.2 1.7
1989
+20.45 +15.11 2.7 -1.1 1.5 3.1 2.4 3.3 3.3 -0.6 0.6 1.0 1.6 1.2
1988
+10.59 +5.92 3.4 1.7 -0.7 -0.1 -0.4 2.9 -1.0 -0.9 2.3 2.3 -0.9 1.5
1987
+3.47 -0.83 5.2 1.7 0.9 -1.7 -0.2 2.3 1.8 0.4 -2.1 -5.4 -1.5 2.4
1986
+20.56 +19.15 0.2 7.1 6.8 0.3 -0.2 4.0 -2.2 5.0 -3.8 1.4 1.8 -1.1
1985
+28.68 +23.98 4.6 -2.1 2.7 0.8 6.0 1.3 -0.5 1.4 -0.9 3.5 4.5 4.5
1984
+8.03 +3.83 0.4 -1.6 -0.3 -0.9 -4.0 1.4 1.6 5.4 1.3 3.1 0.5 0.9
1983
+7.06 +3.15 0.4 1.8 1.3 4.5 -1.3 1.3 -3.1 0.1 2.6 -2.1 2.2 -0.5
1982
+31.65 +26.80 -0.6 -1.2 0.2 4.1 -0.7 -2.4 2.8 8.7 3.6 7.8 3.8 2.4
1981
-3.74 -11.62 -3.3 -2.0 3.5 -3.7 3.0 -1.7 -1.8 -3.7 -2.4 5.6 7.2 -3.7
1980
+10.35 -1.78 1.1 -4.4 -6.8 9.0 5.5 5.3 -0.8 -0.8 1.0 -1.0 3.5 -0.6
1979
+19.26 +5.30 3.4 -0.5 2.2 0.4 1.2 3.2 0.3 3.2 2.5 -6.6 4.8 4.2
1978
+7.24 -1.61 -1.4 0.1 1.7 2.1 1.8 -1.5 3.4 2.7 0.3 -3.3 -0.1 1.4

* Note:
Portofolio Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.

In particular, it has been used:

  • VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2001
  • TLT - iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2002
  • IEI - iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
  • GLD - SPDR Gold Trust: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
  • GSG - iShares S&P GSCI Commodity Indexed Trust: simulated historical serie, up to December 2006
Share this page