Data Source: from January 1976 to October 2022 (~47 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 October 2022
Live Update: Nov 29 2022, 04:00PM Eastern Time
PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
0.56%
1 Day
Nov 29 2022, 04:00PM Eastern Time
4.93%
Current Month
November 2022

The Pinwheel Portfolio is a High Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 8 ETFs.

It's exposed for 65% on the Stock Market and for 10% on Commodities.

In the last 30 Years, the Pinwheel Portfolio obtained a 7.53% compound annual return, with a 10.28% standard deviation.

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Pinwheel Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

65% Stocks
25% Fixed Income
10% Commodities

The Pinwheel Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight Ticker ETF Name Investment Themes
15.00 %
EFA iShares MSCI EAFE Equity, EAFE, Large Cap
15.00 %
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market Equity, U.S., Large Cap
15.00 %
VNQ Vanguard Real Estate Real Estate, U.S.
10.00 %
EEM iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Equity, Emerging Markets, Large Cap
10.00 %
IJS iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value Equity, U.S., Small Cap, Value
15.00 %
IEI iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond Bond, U.S., Intermediate-Term
10.00 %
BIL SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill Bond, U.S., Ultra Short-Term
10.00 %
GLD SPDR Gold Trust Commodity, Gold
Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Oct 31, 2022

The Pinwheel Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Portfolio returns are calculated in USD, assuming: November 2022 return is calculated on the hypothesis of a newly built portfolio, with the starting asset allocation.
PINWHEEL PORTFOLIO RETURNS
Consolidated returns as of 31 October 2022
Live Update: Nov 29 2022, 04:00PM Eastern Time
Swipe left to see all data
  Chg (%) Return (%)
Return (%) as of Oct 31, 2022
  1 Day Time ET(*) Nov 2022 1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~47Y)
Pinwheel Portfolio 0.56 4.93 3.38 -9.22 -15.31 3.33 5.16 7.53 9.84
US Inflation Adjusted return 2.97 -11.93 -21.40 -0.51 2.53 4.90 5.96
Components
EFA
iShares MSCI EAFE
0.27 03:59PM
Nov 29 2022
11.18 5.89 -11.64 -23.17 -0.16 4.08 5.00 6.17
VTI
Vanguard Total Stock Market
-0.15 03:59PM
Nov 29 2022
2.04 8.11 -5.43 -16.87 9.80 12.41 9.79 10.34
VNQ
Vanguard Real Estate
1.59 04:00PM
Nov 29 2022
3.71 3.51 -18.78 -21.44 4.00 6.69 9.03 10.60
EEM
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets
2.19 03:59PM
Nov 29 2022
12.39 -1.98 -18.62 -31.25 -3.80 0.20 5.66 7.33
IJS
iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value
0.53 03:59PM
Nov 29 2022
1.76 14.40 -0.71 -7.38 6.48 11.01 11.05 13.63
IEI
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond
-0.16 04:00PM
Nov 29 2022
1.56 -0.51 -4.41 -11.10 -0.20 0.48 4.38 6.31
BIL
SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill
0.02 03:59PM
Nov 29 2022
0.30 0.16 0.71 0.70 0.98 0.53 2.18 3.99
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust
0.49 03:59PM
Nov 29 2022
7.12 -1.78 -14.13 -8.84 4.71 -0.93 5.10 7.23
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1976
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)

US Inflation is updated to Oct 2022. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 7.75% , 5Y: 3.85% , 10Y: 2.57% , 30Y: 2.51%

Portfolio Metrics as of Oct 31, 2022

Metrics of Pinwheel Portfolio, updated as of 31 October 2022.

Portfolio metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
PINWHEEL PORTFOLIO
Portfolio Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 1976 - 31 October 2022 (~47 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of Oct 31, 2022
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
(~47Y)
Portfolio
Return (%)
3.38 -7.55 -9.22 -15.31 1.98 3.33 5.16 7.67 7.53 9.84
US Inflation (%) 0.41 0.59 3.08 7.75 5.01 3.85 2.57 2.52 2.51 3.65
Infl. Adjusted
Return (%)
2.97 -8.09 -11.93 -21.40 -2.88 -0.51 2.53 5.03 4.90 5.96
Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 12.42 12.85 11.33 9.30 10.97 10.28 10.34
Sharpe Ratio -1.29 0.12 0.21 0.50 0.60 0.52 0.57
Sortino Ratio -1.88 0.16 0.27 0.65 0.78 0.67 0.74
MAXIMUM DRAWDOWN
Drawdown Depth (%) -19.49 -19.49 -19.49 -19.49 -36.89 -36.89 -36.89
Start (yyyy mm) 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2007 11 2007 11 2007 11
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2009 02 2009 02
Start to Bottom (# months) 9 9 9 9 16 16 16
Start to Recovery (# months) in progress
> 10
> 10
> 10
> 10
36
36
36
ROLLING PERIOD RETURNS - Annualized
Best Return (%) 45.76 25.84 23.34 17.19 13.74 12.39
Worst Return (%) -32.48 -6.91 1.11 4.72 6.36 7.39
% Positive Periods 84% 97% 100% 100% 100% 100%
MONTHS
Positive 1 1 2 4 21 39 77 155 237 376
Negative 0 2 4 8 15 21 43 85 123 186
% Positive 100% 33% 33% 33% 58% 65% 64% 65% 66% 67%
WITHDRAWAL RATES (WR)
Safe WR (%) 36.68 21.73 12.54 9.76 7.37 8.27
Perpetual WR (%) 0.00 0.00 2.46 4.79 4.67 5.63
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Maximum Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.
  • Rolling Returns: returns over a time frame (best, worst, % of positive returns).
  • Pos./Neg. Months: number of months with positive/negative return.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the original portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money (dollar amount withdrawal).
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year, while retaining the inflation adjusted portfolio balance (percentage withdrawal).

Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.

Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1.

If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.

Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS
Monthly correlations as of 31 October 2022
Swipe left to see all data
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Asset EFA VTI VNQ EEM IJS IEI BIL GLD
EFA
1.00
0.94
0.84
0.71
0.93
0.54
-0.18
0.16
VTI
0.94
1.00
0.87
0.60
0.93
0.51
-0.07
0.16
VNQ
0.84
0.87
1.00
0.56
0.76
0.38
-0.31
0.35
EEM
0.71
0.60
0.56
1.00
0.60
0.50
-0.35
0.10
IJS
0.93
0.93
0.76
0.60
1.00
0.55
-0.09
0.21
IEI
0.54
0.51
0.38
0.50
0.55
1.00
-0.45
0.02
BIL
-0.18
-0.07
-0.31
-0.35
-0.09
-0.45
1.00
-0.49
GLD
0.16
0.16
0.35
0.10
0.21
0.02
-0.49
1.00
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Asset EFA VTI VNQ EEM IJS IEI BIL GLD
EFA
1.00
0.92
0.76
0.81
0.87
-0.01
-0.27
0.16
VTI
0.92
1.00
0.82
0.74
0.88
-0.01
-0.25
0.15
VNQ
0.76
0.82
1.00
0.57
0.74
0.10
-0.24
0.18
EEM
0.81
0.74
0.57
1.00
0.73
-0.04
-0.25
0.26
IJS
0.87
0.88
0.74
0.73
1.00
-0.18
-0.31
0.00
IEI
-0.01
-0.01
0.10
-0.04
-0.18
1.00
0.21
0.30
BIL
-0.27
-0.25
-0.24
-0.25
-0.31
0.21
1.00
0.00
GLD
0.16
0.15
0.18
0.26
0.00
0.30
0.00
1.00
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Asset EFA VTI VNQ EEM IJS IEI BIL GLD
EFA
1.00
0.87
0.63
0.79
0.76
-0.01
-0.20
0.07
VTI
0.87
1.00
0.71
0.67
0.87
-0.07
-0.19
0.04
VNQ
0.63
0.71
1.00
0.49
0.61
0.23
-0.19
0.15
EEM
0.79
0.67
0.49
1.00
0.62
0.02
-0.16
0.21
IJS
0.76
0.87
0.61
0.62
1.00
-0.22
-0.24
-0.07
IEI
-0.01
-0.07
0.23
0.02
-0.22
1.00
0.11
0.37
BIL
-0.20
-0.19
-0.19
-0.16
-0.24
0.11
1.00
0.10
GLD
0.07
0.04
0.15
0.21
-0.07
0.37
0.10
1.00
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Asset EFA VTI VNQ EEM IJS IEI BIL GLD
EFA
1.00
0.82
0.58
0.78
0.73
-0.14
-0.04
0.16
VTI
0.82
1.00
0.62
0.73
0.86
-0.16
-0.03
0.04
VNQ
0.58
0.62
1.00
0.51
0.68
0.02
-0.01
0.12
EEM
0.78
0.73
0.51
1.00
0.66
-0.11
-0.03
0.25
IJS
0.73
0.86
0.68
0.66
1.00
-0.21
-0.03
0.02
IEI
-0.14
-0.16
0.02
-0.11
-0.21
1.00
0.19
0.19
BIL
-0.04
-0.03
-0.01
-0.03
-0.03
0.19
1.00
-0.01
GLD
0.16
0.04
0.12
0.25
0.02
0.19
-0.01
1.00
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Asset EFA VTI VNQ EEM IJS IEI BIL GLD
EFA
1.00
0.75
0.53
0.68
0.67
0.05
0.01
0.14
VTI
0.75
1.00
0.63
0.72
0.88
0.07
-0.01
0.04
VNQ
0.53
0.63
1.00
0.49
0.70
0.08
0.01
0.09
EEM
0.68
0.72
0.49
1.00
0.64
0.05
-0.03
0.11
IJS
0.67
0.88
0.70
0.64
1.00
0.02
0.01
0.02
IEI
0.05
0.07
0.08
0.05
0.02
1.00
0.20
0.08
BIL
0.01
-0.01
0.01
-0.03
0.01
0.20
1.00
-0.01
GLD
0.14
0.04
0.09
0.11
0.02
0.08
-0.01
1.00

Portfolio Dividends

In 2021, the Pinwheel Portfolio granted a 1.79% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Pinwheel Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Capital Growth as of Oct 31, 2022

An investment of 1000$, since November 1992, now would be worth 8833.54$, with a total return of 783.35% (7.53% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 4203.18$, with a net total return of 320.32% (4.90% annualized).
An investment of 1000$, since January 1976, now would be worth 80961.58$, with a total return of 7996.16% (9.84% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 15077.81$, with a net total return of 1407.78% (5.96% annualized).

Drawdowns

Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months
-36.89% Nov 2007 Feb 2009 16 Oct 2010 20 36
-19.49% Jan 2022 Sep 2022 9 in progress 1 10
-14.99% Jan 2020 Mar 2020 3 Aug 2020 5 8
-14.05% May 1998 Aug 1998 4 Apr 1999 8 12
-12.72% May 2011 Sep 2011 5 Mar 2012 6 11
-11.06% Jun 2002 Sep 2002 4 Jun 2003 9 13
-8.88% Feb 2001 Sep 2001 8 Mar 2002 6 14
-8.24% Feb 2018 Dec 2018 11 Apr 2019 4 15
-7.70% Mar 2015 Jan 2016 11 Jun 2016 5 16
-6.85% Feb 1994 Jan 1995 12 May 1995 4 16
-5.90% Apr 2012 May 2012 2 Sep 2012 4 6
-5.84% Sep 2000 Nov 2000 3 Jan 2001 2 5
-5.84% Apr 2004 Apr 2004 1 Sep 2004 5 6
-4.25% Oct 1997 Oct 1997 1 Feb 1998 4 5
-4.25% May 2013 Jun 2013 2 Sep 2013 3 5
-3.95% Sep 2014 Sep 2014 1 Jan 2015 4 5
-3.67% Jun 2007 Jul 2007 2 Sep 2007 2 4
-3.33% Nov 1993 Nov 1993 1 Dec 1993 1 2
-3.25% May 2006 May 2006 1 Sep 2006 4 5
-3.16% May 2019 May 2019 1 Jun 2019 1 2
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months
-36.89% Nov 2007 Feb 2009 16 Oct 2010 20 36
-19.49% Jan 2022 Sep 2022 9 in progress 1 10
-14.99% Jan 2020 Mar 2020 3 Aug 2020 5 8
-14.91% Sep 1987 Nov 1987 3 Dec 1988 13 16
-14.05% May 1998 Aug 1998 4 Apr 1999 8 12
-12.72% May 2011 Sep 2011 5 Mar 2012 6 11
-12.51% Jan 1990 Sep 1990 9 Feb 1991 5 14
-12.10% Dec 1980 Jul 1982 20 Oct 1982 3 23
-11.81% Feb 1980 Mar 1980 2 Jun 1980 3 5
-11.06% Jun 2002 Sep 2002 4 Jun 2003 9 13
-8.88% Feb 2001 Sep 2001 8 Mar 2002 6 14
-8.24% Feb 2018 Dec 2018 11 Apr 2019 4 15
-7.70% Mar 2015 Jan 2016 11 Jun 2016 5 16
-6.94% Oct 1979 Oct 1979 1 Dec 1979 2 3
-6.85% Feb 1994 Jan 1995 12 May 1995 4 16
-5.90% Apr 2012 May 2012 2 Sep 2012 4 6
-5.84% Sep 2000 Nov 2000 3 Jan 2001 2 5
-5.84% Apr 2004 Apr 2004 1 Sep 2004 5 6
-5.44% Oct 1978 Nov 1978 2 Jan 1979 2 4
-4.25% Oct 1997 Oct 1997 1 Feb 1998 4 5

Rolling Returns ( more details)

Pinwheel Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns

Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Return (*) Negative
Periods
Average (%) Best (%) Worst (%)
1 Year
10.63 45.76
Jul 1982 - Jun 1983
-32.48
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
16.15%
2 Years
10.39 31.96
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011
-16.44
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
5.75%
3 Years
10.22 25.84
Aug 1984 - Jul 1987
-6.91
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009
2.66%
5 Years
10.03 23.34
Aug 1982 - Jul 1987
1.11
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009
0.00%
7 Years
9.98 18.57
Aug 1982 - Jul 1989
3.52
Apr 2013 - Mar 2020
0.00%
10 Years
9.97 17.19
Sep 1977 - Aug 1987
4.72
Oct 2012 - Sep 2022
0.00%
15 Years
9.76 14.67
Nov 1978 - Oct 1993
4.46
Nov 2007 - Oct 2022
0.00%
20 Years
9.67 13.74
Jan 1976 - Dec 1995
6.36
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
0.00%
30 Years
9.77 12.39
Nov 1977 - Oct 2007
7.39
Oct 1992 - Sep 2022
0.00%
(*) Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Pinwheel Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Pinwheel Portfolio?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.

For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
0.97
60%
-1.25
40%
-1.24
80%
1.32
80%
0.41
60%
0.30
40%
1.96
100%
0.18
80%
-2.42
20%
0.62
60%
1.68
80%
1.41
80%
 Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100
100.97
99.71
98.47
99.77
100.18
100.48
102.44
102.63
100.15
100.76
102.46
103.90
Best 6.7
2019
1.8
2021
2.1
2021
6.4
2020
2.6
2020
4.5
2019
4.0
2020
2.4
2020
1.3
2019
3.4
2022
6.9
2020
4.1
2020
Worst -3.5
2022
-4.5
2020
-10.3
2020
-4.7
2022
-3.2
2019
-5.2
2022
0.1
2019
-3.5
2022
-7.3
2022
-4.5
2018
-2.0
2021
-4.3
2018
Monthly Seasonality over the period Nov 2017 - Oct 2022
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
0.66
60%
0.15
60%
0.13
80%
1.11
90%
0.15
50%
0.21
50%
1.66
80%
-0.36
60%
-1.24
40%
1.13
70%
0.88
60%
0.97
70%
 Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100
100.66
100.81
100.94
102.07
102.22
102.44
104.14
103.77
102.49
103.65
104.56
105.58
Best 6.7
2019
3.8
2014
5.6
2016
6.4
2020
2.6
2020
4.5
2019
4.0
2020
2.4
2020
3.6
2013
4.4
2015
6.9
2020
4.1
2020
Worst -3.5
2022
-4.5
2020
-10.3
2020
-4.7
2022
-3.2
2019
-5.2
2022
-1.5
2014
-4.0
2015
-7.3
2022
-4.5
2018
-2.0
2021
-4.3
2018
Monthly Seasonality over the period Nov 2012 - Oct 2022
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
1.11
62%
0.37
62%
0.71
74%
1.57
85%
0.56
62%
0.59
62%
1.03
62%
0.52
66%
0.08
62%
0.26
60%
1.29
70%
1.90
78%
 Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100
101.11
101.49
102.21
103.81
104.39
105.00
106.09
106.64
106.72
107.00
108.38
110.44
Best 7.9
1976
5.4
1991
5.7
1986
9.6
2009
5.9
2009
5.1
1980
6.9
2009
8.6
1982
6.2
2010
8.6
1982
6.9
2020
8.9
1991
Worst -7.8
2009
-7.6
2009
-10.4
1980
-5.8
2004
-5.7
2012
-5.3
2008
-5.8
2002
-9.8
1998
-8.2
2011
-15.8
2008
-4.5
2008
-4.3
2018
Monthly Seasonality over the period Jan 1976 - Oct 2022

Monthly/Yearly Returns

Pinwheel Portfolio data source starts from January 1976: let's focus on monthly and yearly returns.

We are providing two different views:
  • Histogram: it shows the distribution of the returns recorded so far
  • Plain Table: it shows the detailed monthly and yearly returns
MONTHLY RETURNS HISTOGRAM
Jan 1976 - Oct 2022
376 Positive Months (67%) - 186 Negative Months (33%)
MONTHLY RETURNS TABLE
Jan 1976 - Oct 2022
(Scroll down to see all data)
Swipe left to see all data
Yearly Return(%)
Monthly Return(%)
Year Total Infl.Adj Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2022
-16.77 -22.13 -3.5 -1.0 0.8 -4.7 -0.4 -5.2 4.0 -3.5 -7.3 3.4
2021
+13.53 +6.07 0.4 1.8 2.1 3.1 2.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 -3.1 3.2 -2.0 3.8
2020
+9.12 +7.65 -0.8 -4.5 -10.3 6.4 2.6 2.4 4.0 2.4 -2.3 -0.9 6.9 4.1
2019
+19.31 +16.65 6.7 1.2 0.8 1.7 -3.2 4.5 0.1 0.2 1.3 1.9 0.5 2.4
2018
-6.39 -8.14 2.0 -3.7 0.5 0.1 1.0 -0.2 1.4 0.5 -0.8 -4.5 1.8 -4.3
2017
+14.08 +11.72 1.9 1.9 0.4 1.1 0.8 0.6 1.9 0.5 1.0 0.8 1.3 1.0
2016
+8.63 +6.42 -2.4 0.8 5.6 0.9 -0.5 2.5 3.1 -0.8 0.4 -2.4 -0.2 1.5
2015
-2.88 -3.58 1.3 1.3 -0.3 0.2 -0.1 -1.9 -0.1 -4.0 -1.3 4.4 -0.8 -1.3
2014
+6.12 +5.32 -1.3 3.8 0.1 0.8 1.1 1.9 -1.5 2.0 -4.0 2.7 0.7 -0.3
2013
+9.02 +7.41 2.3 -0.3 1.7 1.6 -1.8 -2.5 3.4 -2.2 3.6 2.8 -0.1 0.6
2012
+12.60 +10.68 5.6 1.5 1.0 -0.2 -5.7 3.7 0.6 1.8 1.8 -0.9 0.9 2.2
2011
-0.25 -3.12 0.2 2.7 0.4 3.7 -0.7 -1.5 0.3 -3.1 -8.2 8.5 -0.8 -0.8
2010
+16.08 +14.37 -3.0 2.4 4.8 2.4 -4.9 -2.4 5.3 -1.7 6.2 3.1 -0.9 4.5
2009
+24.19 +20.90 -7.8 -7.6 5.1 9.6 5.9 -1.4 6.9 3.5 4.6 -2.2 5.3 1.7
2008
-22.51 -22.58 -1.9 -0.3 0.0 2.7 1.0 -5.3 -0.4 -1.0 -3.9 -15.8 -4.5 5.7
2007
+7.60 +3.39 2.3 -0.5 0.8 2.0 1.5 -1.7 -2.0 1.7 4.4 3.6 -3.8 -0.7
2006
+19.78 +16.81 5.8 -0.2 2.6 2.3 -3.2 0.3 1.2 1.8 0.4 3.6 3.4 0.7
2005
+11.02 +7.35 -2.6 2.8 -2.2 0.0 1.7 2.3 3.3 0.1 2.4 -2.5 3.5 2.1
2004
+15.19 +11.56 1.4 1.6 1.8 -5.8 1.7 2.0 -1.9 2.5 1.9 2.4 4.7 2.5
2003
+28.19 +25.83 -1.3 -1.4 -0.5 5.2 5.4 1.3 2.3 2.8 1.3 3.9 2.2 4.2
2002
-2.13 -4.40 -0.2 1.2 3.4 0.8 0.4 -2.3 -5.8 0.8 -4.1 1.0 3.2 0.0
2001
-0.61 -2.13 2.5 -3.9 -3.6 4.2 0.6 0.3 -1.2 -0.3 -5.0 0.9 3.4 2.0
2000
+1.80 -1.53 -2.8 1.9 2.0 -1.3 -1.3 3.4 0.1 1.5 -1.3 -2.1 -2.6 4.6
1999
+15.18 +12.17 0.0 -2.1 2.3 5.7 -1.5 2.5 -1.2 -0.6 0.7 1.5 2.2 5.0
1998
+3.43 +1.79 0.4 3.4 2.7 0.2 -2.6 -0.1 -2.1 -9.8 4.1 3.7 3.0 1.3
1997
+8.85 +7.02 0.5 0.9 -1.8 0.3 4.3 3.1 2.8 -3.1 4.7 -4.3 0.2 1.2
1996
+13.00 +9.36 2.3 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.0 0.1 -2.5 1.9 2.1 0.7 3.3 1.3
1995
+14.60 +11.76 -1.6 1.1 1.9 1.8 2.4 1.1 2.3 0.1 1.5 -1.6 2.2 2.5
1994
-2.32 -4.87 3.2 -2.1 -3.9 0.8 0.6 -0.8 1.4 2.6 -1.7 0.0 -3.2 1.1
1993
+24.96 +21.61 3.4 1.9 5.1 1.2 0.9 1.7 2.4 2.4 -0.1 2.3 -3.3 4.8
1992
+4.01 +1.08 1.0 -0.7 -2.2 0.4 3.9 -2.5 2.8 -0.6 0.4 -0.7 1.5 0.9
1991
+29.20 +25.36 3.7 5.4 1.3 1.5 2.9 -3.3 2.4 2.1 1.9 2.2 -2.6 8.9
1990
-7.14 -12.48 -3.3 -0.9 -1.9 -1.8 4.6 0.6 2.1 -7.0 -5.2 2.4 2.1 1.6
1989
+21.94 +16.53 3.2 0.6 -0.4 3.1 1.7 0.1 4.3 1.8 2.6 -2.0 2.5 2.6
1988
+14.95 +10.08 4.6 3.1 0.8 0.8 -0.9 3.2 -0.1 -2.0 1.5 1.8 0.3 1.1
1987
+2.63 -1.73 7.4 2.9 0.3 1.5 -1.0 0.9 2.8 1.9 -1.3 -13.2 -0.7 2.3
1986
+21.90 +20.58 2.2 4.5 5.7 1.1 0.5 3.1 -0.7 5.2 -2.2 0.0 1.2 -0.3
1985
+27.17 +22.52 5.5 0.7 2.1 0.6 4.1 1.8 0.9 0.1 -1.9 3.1 4.1 3.4
1984
+8.12 +4.01 0.5 -1.1 0.7 0.3 -2.9 1.1 -1.2 6.4 1.7 1.0 0.3 1.4
1983
+17.25 +12.97 3.5 0.1 3.5 5.6 0.7 1.8 -1.8 0.2 1.1 -1.0 2.5 -0.1
1982
+13.76 +9.57 -1.9 -3.5 -2.3 3.6 -2.6 -2.7 -0.1 8.6 1.5 8.6 3.5 1.4
1981
-0.90 -9.02 -2.6 0.5 3.6 -1.0 0.9 -0.7 -1.0 -3.3 -3.6 4.7 4.1 -2.1
1980
+18.33 +5.17 6.5 -1.6 -10.4 4.3 4.7 5.1 3.5 0.8 1.5 1.5 4.3 -2.1
1979
+29.93 +14.69 3.8 -0.5 4.0 0.8 0.6 4.1 2.3 5.9 2.4 -6.9 5.2 5.4
1978
+15.63 +6.07 -1.8 0.7 2.9 4.2 1.9 -0.2 4.8 3.9 0.6 -5.4 -0.1 3.4
1977
+10.76 +3.80 -0.8 0.7 0.7 1.0 -0.1 3.7 -0.1 0.1 1.2 -0.8 3.3 1.4
1976
+19.79 +14.23 7.9 1.6 1.0 -0.5 -1.8 3.0 -0.7 -0.1 2.1 -0.5 1.9 4.6

Portofolio Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.

In particular, it has been used:

  • EFA - iShares MSCI EAFE: simulated historical serie, up to December 2001
  • VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2001
  • VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
  • EEM - iShares MSCI Emerging Markets: simulated historical serie, up to December 2003
  • IJS - iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value: simulated historical serie, up to December 2000
  • IEI - iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
  • BIL - SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
  • GLD - SPDR Gold Trust: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004

Portfolio efficiency

Compared to the Pinwheel Portfolio, the following portfolios granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.

Swipe left to see all data
30 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Return Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Momentum
+9.67 9.35 -32.52 60 40 0
Couch Potato
Scott Burns
+8.06 8.58 -27.04 50 50 0
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Momentum
+8.04 6.77 -21.11 40 60 0
Stocks/Bonds 60/40
+8.00 9.35 -30.55 60 40 0
Coffeehouse
Bill Schultheis
+7.78 9.41 -33.93 60 40 0
Golden Butterfly
+7.70 7.36 -17.79 40 40 20
Sheltered Sam 60/40
Bill Bernstein
+7.60 9.07 -34.12 58.2 40 1.8
Robo Advisor 50
Betterment
+7.53 9.11 -30.72 49.9 50.1 0
Pinwheel
+7.53 10.28 -36.89 65 25 10

Here's a list containing the Best Classic Portfolios, with the highest returns over 30 Years and High Risk categorization.

Swipe left to see all data
30 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Return Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Momentum
+9.67 9.35 -32.52 60 40 0
Simple Path to Wealth
JL Collins
+8.74 11.50 -38.53 75 25 0
Seven Value
Scott Burns
+8.41 11.18 -41.22 71.5 28.5 0
Late Sixties and Beyond
Burton Malkiel
+8.41 11.45 -41.80 71 29 0
Yale Endowment
David Swensen
+8.35 10.67 -39.48 70 30 0
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