Data Source: from January 1994 to December 2021
Last Update: 31 December 2021
The Pinwheel Portfolio is exposed for 65% on the Stock Market and for 10% on Commodities.
It's a High Risk portfolio and it can be replicated with 8 ETFs.
In the last 10 years, the portfolio obtained a 8.05% compound annual return, with a 8.76% standard deviation.
In the last 25 years, a 7.81% compound annual return, with a 10.58% standard deviation.
Asset Allocation and ETFs
The Pinwheel Portfolio has the following asset allocation:
The Pinwheel Portfolio can be replicated with the following ETFs:
| Weight | Ticker | ETF Name | Investment Themes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.00 % | EFA | iShares MSCI EAFE | Equity, EAFE, Large Cap | |
| 15.00 % | VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market | Equity, U.S., Large Cap | |
| 15.00 % | VNQ | Vanguard Real Estate | Real Estate, U.S. | |
| 10.00 % | EEM | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets | Equity, Emerging Markets, Large Cap | |
| 10.00 % | IJS | iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value | Equity, U.S., Small Cap, Value | |
| 15.00 % | IEI | iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond | Bond, U.S., Intermediate-Term | |
| 10.00 % | BIL | SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill | Bond, U.S., Ultra Short-Term | |
| 10.00 % | GLD | SPDR Gold Trust | Commodity, Gold |
Portfolio and ETF Returns
The Pinwheel Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y(*) | 5Y(*) | 10Y(*) | 20Y(*) | 25Y(*) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinwheel Portfolio | +3.81 | +5.01 | +3.46 | +13.53 | +13.91 | +9.56 | +8.05 | +8.38 | +7.81 |
| --- Inflation Adjusted return | +3.32 | +2.74 | +0.06 | +5.98 | +10.03 | +6.45 | +5.81 | +5.93 | +5.40 |
| Components | |||||||||
|
EFA iShares MSCI EAFE |
+4.41 | +2.84 | +1.71 | +11.46 | +13.53 | +9.55 | +7.92 | +6.26 | +5.22 |
|
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market |
+3.79 | +9.11 | +9.08 | +25.67 | +25.73 | +17.96 | +16.29 | +9.91 | +9.88 |
|
VNQ Vanguard Real Estate |
+9.69 | +15.03 | +15.74 | +40.52 | +19.96 | +11.22 | +11.50 | +10.89 | +9.94 |
|
EEM iShares MSCI Emerging Markets |
+1.53 | -1.57 | -10.09 | -3.61 | +10.06 | +9.16 | +4.73 | +8.87 | +5.94 |
|
IJS iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value |
+4.12 | +4.30 | +0.09 | +30.53 | +18.47 | +10.04 | +13.33 | +9.82 | +10.48 |
|
IEI iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond |
-0.40 | -0.91 | -1.01 | -2.54 | +3.28 | +2.48 | +1.84 | +3.90 | +4.58 |
|
BIL SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill |
0.00 | -0.03 | -0.04 | -0.10 | +0.77 | +0.95 | +0.45 | +1.12 | +1.86 |
|
GLD SPDR Gold Trust |
+3.30 | +4.10 | +3.22 | -4.15 | +12.13 | +9.30 | +1.18 | +9.51 | +6.30 |
- a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (i.e. at every January 1st)
- the reinvestment of dividends
Inflation is updated to Dec 2021. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 7.12% , 3Y: 3.53% , 5Y: 2.92% , 10Y: 2.12% , 20Y: 2.31% , 25Y: 2.29%
In 2021, the portfolio granted a 1.79% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Pinwheel Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.
Historical Returns
Historical returns and stats of Pinwheel Portfolio. Total Returns and Inflation Adjusted Returns are both mentioned.
| Period | Return Dec 2021 update |
Return Inflation Adjusted |
Standard Deviation(*) |
Max Drawdown |
Months Pos - Neg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1M
Dec 2021
|
+3.81%
|
+3.32%
|
0.00%
|
1 - 0
|
|
|
3M
|
+5.01%
|
+2.74%
|
-1.98%
Nov 2021 - Nov 2021
|
2 - 1
|
|
|
6M
|
+3.46%
|
+0.06%
|
-3.10%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
4 - 2
|
|
|
YTD
|
+13.53%
|
+5.98%
|
6.91%
|
-3.10%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
9 - 3
75% pos
|
|
1Y
|
+13.53%
|
+5.98%
|
6.91%
|
-3.10%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
9 - 3
75% pos
|
|
3Y
|
+13.91%
annualized
|
+10.03%
annualized
|
11.24%
|
-14.99%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
|
27 - 9
75% pos
|
|
5Y
|
+9.56%
annualized
|
+6.45%
annualized
|
9.68%
|
-14.99%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
|
46 - 14
77% pos
|
|
10Y
|
+8.05%
annualized
|
+5.81%
annualized
|
8.76%
|
-14.99%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
|
81 - 39
68% pos
|
|
20Y
|
+8.38%
annualized
|
+5.93%
annualized
|
10.74%
|
-36.89%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
|
158 - 82
66% pos
|
|
25Y
|
+7.81%
annualized
|
+5.40%
annualized
|
10.58%
|
-36.89%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
|
195 - 105
65% pos
|
|
MAX
01 Jan 1994
|
+7.85%
annualized
|
+5.38%
annualized
|
10.20%
|
-36.89%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
|
222 - 114
66% pos
|
Portfolio efficiency
Is the Pinwheel Portfolio actually efficient, compared to other Lazy Portfolios?
Best Classic Portfolios, with High Risk, ordered by 25 Years annualized return.
25 Years Stats |
% Allocation |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | Return▾ | Drawdown | Stocks | Bonds | Comm. | ||
| Simple Path to Wealth JL Collins |
+8.96% | -38.54% | 75 | 25 | 0 | Compare | |
| Yale Endowment David Swensen |
+8.94% | -39.46% | 70 | 30 | 0 | Compare | |
| Talmud Portfolio Roger Gibson |
+8.80% | -40.18% | 66.67 | 33.33 | 0 | Compare | |
| Late Sixties and Beyond Burton Malkiel |
+8.63% | -41.80% | 71 | 29 | 0 | Compare | |
| Lazy Portfolio David Swensen |
+8.41% | -40.88% | 70 | 30 | 0 | Compare | |
Our overall ratings, assigned to the Pinwheel Portfolio. The portfolio is classified as High Risk.
Less than 25%
25% - 49.99%
50% - 74.99%
At least 75%
| High Risk Portfolios |
All Portfolios |
||
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Years Ann. Return (Inflation Adjusted) |
+7.81%
(+5.40%) |
Average : 2.9 / 5
|
Good : 3.5 / 5
|
| Standard Deviation over 25 Years |
10.58% |
Average : 2.4 / 5
|
Good : 3.2 / 5
|
| Maximum Drawdown over 25 Years |
-36.89% |
Average : 2.2 / 5
|
Average : 2.7 / 5
|
| Easy to manage | 8 ETFs |
Bad : 1.5 / 5
|
Bad : 1.5 / 5
|
| Rating assigned considering all the High Risk Portfolios | Rating assigned considering all the Portfolios in the database |
Capital Growth
An investment of 1000$, since January 1997, now would be worth 6559.94$, with a total return of 555.99% (7.81% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 3724.89$, with a net total return of 272.49% (5.40% annualized).
Drawdowns
Worst drawdowns since January 1997 - Chart and Data
Drawdown period |
Recovery period |
Total |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months |
| -36.89% | Nov 2007 | Feb 2009 | 16 | Oct 2010 | 20 | 36 |
| -14.99% | Jan 2020 | Mar 2020 | 3 | Aug 2020 | 5 | 8 |
| -14.05% | May 1998 | Aug 1998 | 4 | Apr 1999 | 8 | 12 |
| -12.72% | May 2011 | Sep 2011 | 5 | Mar 2012 | 6 | 11 |
| -11.06% | Jun 2002 | Sep 2002 | 4 | Jun 2003 | 9 | 13 |
| -8.88% | Feb 2001 | Sep 2001 | 8 | Mar 2002 | 6 | 14 |
| -8.24% | Feb 2018 | Dec 2018 | 11 | Apr 2019 | 4 | 15 |
| -7.70% | Mar 2015 | Jan 2016 | 11 | Jun 2016 | 5 | 16 |
| -5.90% | Apr 2012 | May 2012 | 2 | Sep 2012 | 4 | 6 |
| -5.84% | Sep 2000 | Nov 2000 | 3 | Jan 2001 | 2 | 5 |
| -5.84% | Apr 2004 | Apr 2004 | 1 | Sep 2004 | 5 | 6 |
| -4.25% | Oct 1997 | Oct 1997 | 1 | Feb 1998 | 4 | 5 |
| -4.25% | May 2013 | Jun 2013 | 2 | Sep 2013 | 3 | 5 |
| -3.95% | Sep 2014 | Sep 2014 | 1 | Jan 2015 | 4 | 5 |
| -3.67% | Jun 2007 | Jul 2007 | 2 | Sep 2007 | 2 | 4 |
| -3.25% | May 2006 | May 2006 | 1 | Sep 2006 | 4 | 5 |
| -3.16% | May 2019 | May 2019 | 1 | Jun 2019 | 1 | 2 |
| -3.15% | Sep 2020 | Oct 2020 | 2 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 3 |
| -3.13% | Aug 1997 | Aug 1997 | 1 | Sep 1997 | 1 | 2 |
| -3.10% | Sep 2021 | Sep 2021 | 1 | Dec 2021 | 3 | 4 |
Rolling Returns ( more details)
Pinwheel Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns
| Return (*) | Negative Periods |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rolling Period | Average | Best | Worst | |
| 1 Year |
+8.51% |
+44.78% Mar 2009 - Feb 2010 |
-32.48% Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 |
17.54% |
| 2 Years |
+8.03% |
+31.96% Mar 2009 - Feb 2011 |
-16.44% Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
9.27% |
| 3 Years |
+7.83% |
+22.39% Apr 2003 - Mar 2006 |
-6.91% Mar 2006 - Feb 2009 |
4.65% |
| 5 Years |
+7.69% |
+17.92% Nov 2002 - Oct 2007 |
+1.11% Mar 2004 - Feb 2009 |
0.00% |
| 7 Years |
+7.64% |
+11.86% Nov 2000 - Oct 2007 |
+3.52% Apr 2013 - Mar 2020 |
0.00% |
| 10 Years |
+7.94% |
+11.01% Apr 2003 - Mar 2013 |
+4.98% Mar 1999 - Feb 2009 |
0.00% |
| 15 Years |
+7.78% |
+9.34% Feb 2003 - Jan 2018 |
+5.53% Mar 1994 - Feb 2009 |
0.00% |
| 20 Years |
+7.73% |
+8.66% Mar 1995 - Feb 2015 |
+6.36% Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 |
0.00% |
* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods
If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Pinwheel Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.
Seasonality
Pinwheel Portfolio Seasonality: in which months is it better to invest?
In the table below, the average monthly return is represented.
Below each return, it's also mentioned the probability of obtaining a positive monthly result (Win %).
Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
| Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Average Win % |
0.45 57% |
0.15 61% |
0.65 75% |
1.84 89% |
0.30 61% |
0.43 57% |
0.78 64% |
0.05 64% |
0.24 61% |
0.42 61% |
1.06 64% |
1.74 79% |
| Best Year |
6.7 2019 |
3.8 2014 |
5.6 2016 |
9.6 2009 |
5.9 2009 |
4.5 2019 |
6.9 2009 |
3.5 2009 |
6.2 2010 |
8.5 2011 |
6.9 2020 |
5.7 2008 |
| Worst Year |
-7.8 2009 |
-7.6 2009 |
-10.3 2020 |
-5.8 2004 |
-5.7 2012 |
-5.3 2008 |
-5.8 2002 |
-9.8 1998 |
-8.2 2011 |
-15.8 2008 |
-4.5 2008 |
-4.3 2018 |
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Monthly/Yearly Returns
Pinwheel Portfolio monthly and yearly returns: how is the distribution of the returns recorded so far?
Yearly Return(%) |
Monthly Return(%) |
|||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Infl.Adj | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| 2021 |
+13.53 | +5.98 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.4 | -3.1 | 3.2 | -2.0 | 3.8 |
| 2020 |
+9.12 | +7.72 | -0.8 | -4.5 | -10.3 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 2.4 | -2.3 | -0.9 | 6.9 | 4.1 |
| 2019 |
+19.31 | +16.67 | 6.7 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.7 | -3.2 | 4.5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 2.4 |
| 2018 |
-6.39 | -8.15 | 2.0 | -3.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.0 | -0.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | -0.8 | -4.5 | 1.8 | -4.3 |
| 2017 |
+14.08 | +11.73 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| 2016 |
+8.63 | +6.45 | -2.4 | 0.8 | 5.6 | 0.9 | -0.5 | 2.5 | 3.1 | -0.8 | 0.4 | -2.4 | -0.2 | 1.5 |
| 2015 |
-2.88 | -3.49 | 1.3 | 1.3 | -0.3 | 0.2 | -0.1 | -1.9 | -0.1 | -4.0 | -1.3 | 4.4 | -0.8 | -1.3 |
| 2014 |
+6.12 | +5.43 | -1.3 | 3.8 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.9 | -1.5 | 2.0 | -4.0 | 2.7 | 0.7 | -0.3 |
| 2013 |
+9.02 | +7.40 | 2.3 | -0.3 | 1.7 | 1.6 | -1.8 | -2.5 | 3.4 | -2.2 | 3.6 | 2.8 | -0.1 | 0.6 |
| 2012 |
+12.60 | +10.66 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.2 | -5.7 | 3.7 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | -0.9 | 0.9 | 2.2 |
| 2011 |
-0.25 | -3.21 | 0.2 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 3.7 | -0.7 | -1.5 | 0.3 | -3.1 | -8.2 | 8.5 | -0.8 | -0.8 |
| 2010 |
+16.08 | +14.44 | -3.0 | 2.4 | 4.8 | 2.4 | -4.9 | -2.4 | 5.3 | -1.7 | 6.2 | 3.1 | -0.9 | 4.5 |
| 2009 |
+24.19 | +20.79 | -7.8 | -7.6 | 5.1 | 9.6 | 5.9 | -1.4 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 4.6 | -2.2 | 5.3 | 1.7 |
| 2008 |
-22.51 | -22.49 | -1.9 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | -5.3 | -0.4 | -1.0 | -3.9 | -15.8 | -4.5 | 5.7 |
| 2007 |
+7.60 | +3.36 | 2.3 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 1.5 | -1.7 | -2.0 | 1.7 | 4.4 | 3.6 | -3.8 | -0.7 |
| 2006 |
+19.78 | +16.83 | 5.8 | -0.2 | 2.6 | 2.3 | -3.2 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 0.7 |
| 2005 |
+11.02 | +7.43 | -2.6 | 2.8 | -2.2 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 0.1 | 2.4 | -2.5 | 3.5 | 2.1 |
| 2004 |
+15.19 | +11.47 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | -5.8 | 1.7 | 2.0 | -1.9 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 |
| 2003 |
+28.19 | +25.63 | -1.3 | -1.4 | -0.5 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 4.2 |
| 2002 |
-2.13 | -4.49 | -0.2 | 1.2 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | -2.3 | -5.8 | 0.8 | -4.1 | 1.0 | 3.2 | 0.0 |
| 2001 |
-0.61 | -2.18 | 2.5 | -3.9 | -3.6 | 4.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | -1.2 | -0.3 | -5.0 | 0.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 |
| 2000 |
+1.80 | -1.58 | -2.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | -1.3 | -1.3 | 3.4 | 0.1 | 1.5 | -1.3 | -2.1 | -2.6 | 4.6 |
| 1999 |
+15.18 | +12.18 | 0.0 | -2.1 | 2.3 | 5.7 | -1.5 | 2.5 | -1.2 | -0.6 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 5.0 |
| 1998 |
+3.43 | +1.79 | 0.4 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 0.2 | -2.6 | -0.1 | -2.1 | -9.8 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| 1997 |
+8.85 | +7.03 | 0.5 | 0.9 | -1.8 | 0.3 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 2.8 | -3.1 | 4.7 | -4.3 | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| 1996 |
+13.00 | +9.30 | 2.3 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.1 | -2.5 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 1995 |
+14.60 | +11.77 | -1.6 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 0.1 | 1.5 | -1.6 | 2.2 | 2.5 |
| 1994 |
-2.32 | -4.80 | 3.2 | -2.1 | -3.9 | 0.8 | 0.6 | -0.8 | 1.4 | 2.6 | -1.7 | 0.0 | -3.2 | 1.1 |
* Note: Portofolio Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
In particular, it has been used:
- EFA - iShares MSCI EAFE: simulated historical serie, up to December 2001
- VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2001
- VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
- EEM - iShares MSCI Emerging Markets: simulated historical serie, up to December 2003
- IJS - iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value: simulated historical serie, up to December 2000
- IEI - iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
- BIL - SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
- GLD - SPDR Gold Trust: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004