Data Source: from January 1994 to December 2021

Last Update: 31 December 2021

The Pinwheel Portfolio is exposed for 65% on the Stock Market and for 10% on Commodities.

It's a High Risk portfolio and it can be replicated with 8 ETFs.

In the last 10 years, the portfolio obtained a 8.05% compound annual return, with a 8.76% standard deviation.

In the last 25 years, a 7.81% compound annual return, with a 10.58% standard deviation.

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Pinwheel Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

65% Stocks
25% Fixed Income
10% Commodities

The Pinwheel Portfolio can be replicated with the following ETFs:

Weight Ticker ETF Name Investment Themes
15.00 % EFA iShares MSCI EAFE Equity, EAFE, Large Cap
15.00 % VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market Equity, U.S., Large Cap
15.00 % VNQ Vanguard Real Estate Real Estate, U.S.
10.00 % EEM iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Equity, Emerging Markets, Large Cap
10.00 % IJS iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value Equity, U.S., Small Cap, Value
15.00 % IEI iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond Bond, U.S., Intermediate-Term
10.00 % BIL SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill Bond, U.S., Ultra Short-Term
10.00 % GLD SPDR Gold Trust Commodity, Gold
Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns

The Pinwheel Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

PINWHEEL PORTFOLIO RETURNS (%)
Last Update: 31 December 2021
Swipe left to see all data
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y(*) 5Y(*) 10Y(*) 20Y(*) 25Y(*)
Pinwheel Portfolio +3.81 +5.01 +3.46 +13.53 +13.91 +9.56 +8.05 +8.38 +7.81
--- Inflation Adjusted return +3.32 +2.74 +0.06 +5.98 +10.03 +6.45 +5.81 +5.93 +5.40
Components
EFA
iShares MSCI EAFE
+4.41 +2.84 +1.71 +11.46 +13.53 +9.55 +7.92 +6.26 +5.22
VTI
Vanguard Total Stock Market
+3.79 +9.11 +9.08 +25.67 +25.73 +17.96 +16.29 +9.91 +9.88
VNQ
Vanguard Real Estate
+9.69 +15.03 +15.74 +40.52 +19.96 +11.22 +11.50 +10.89 +9.94
EEM
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets
+1.53 -1.57 -10.09 -3.61 +10.06 +9.16 +4.73 +8.87 +5.94
IJS
iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value
+4.12 +4.30 +0.09 +30.53 +18.47 +10.04 +13.33 +9.82 +10.48
IEI
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond
-0.40 -0.91 -1.01 -2.54 +3.28 +2.48 +1.84 +3.90 +4.58
BIL
SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill
0.00 -0.03 -0.04 -0.10 +0.77 +0.95 +0.45 +1.12 +1.86
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust
+3.30 +4.10 +3.22 -4.15 +12.13 +9.30 +1.18 +9.51 +6.30
(*) annualized
Portfolio returns are calculated assuming:
  • a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (i.e. at every January 1st)
  • the reinvestment of dividends

Inflation is updated to Dec 2021. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 7.12% , 3Y: 3.53% , 5Y: 2.92% , 10Y: 2.12% , 20Y: 2.31% , 25Y: 2.29%

In 2021, the portfolio granted a 1.79% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Pinwheel Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Historical Returns

Historical returns and stats of Pinwheel Portfolio. Total Returns and Inflation Adjusted Returns are both mentioned.

PINWHEEL PORTFOLIO
Last Update: 31 December 2021
Swipe left to see all data
Period Return
Dec 2021
update
Return
Inflation
Adjusted
Standard
Deviation(*)
Max
Drawdown
Months
Pos - Neg
1M
Dec 2021
+3.81%
+3.32%
0.00%
1 - 0
3M
+5.01%
+2.74%
-1.98%
Nov 2021 - Nov 2021
2 - 1
6M
+3.46%
+0.06%
-3.10%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
4 - 2
YTD
+13.53%
+5.98%
6.91%
-3.10%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
9 - 3
75% pos
1Y
+13.53%
+5.98%
6.91%
-3.10%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
9 - 3
75% pos
3Y
+13.91%
annualized
+10.03%
annualized
11.24%
-14.99%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
27 - 9
75% pos
5Y
+9.56%
annualized
+6.45%
annualized
9.68%
-14.99%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
46 - 14
77% pos
10Y
+8.05%
annualized
+5.81%
annualized
8.76%
-14.99%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
81 - 39
68% pos
20Y
+8.38%
annualized
+5.93%
annualized
10.74%
-36.89%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
158 - 82
66% pos
25Y
+7.81%
annualized
+5.40%
annualized
10.58%
-36.89%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
195 - 105
65% pos
MAX
01 Jan 1994
+7.85%
annualized
+5.38%
annualized
10.20%
-36.89%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
222 - 114
66% pos
(*)Annualized St.Dev. of monthly returns

Portfolio efficiency

Is the Pinwheel Portfolio actually efficient, compared to other Lazy Portfolios?

Best Classic Portfolios, with High Risk, ordered by 25 Years annualized return.

25 Years Stats
% Allocation
Portfolio Return Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm.
Simple Path to Wealth
JL Collins
+8.96% -38.54% 75 25 0 Compare
Yale Endowment
David Swensen
+8.94% -39.46% 70 30 0 Compare
Talmud Portfolio
Roger Gibson
+8.80% -40.18% 66.67 33.33 0 Compare
Late Sixties and Beyond
Burton Malkiel
+8.63% -41.80% 71 29 0 Compare
Lazy Portfolio
David Swensen
+8.41% -40.88% 70 30 0 Compare

See all portfolios

Our overall ratings, assigned to the Pinwheel Portfolio. The portfolio is classified as High Risk.

Very High Risk
Bond weight:
Less than 25%
High Risk
Bond weight:
25% - 49.99%
Medium Risk
Bond weight:
50% - 74.99%
Low Risk
Bond weight:
At least 75%
High Risk
Portfolios
All
Portfolios
25 Years Ann. Return
(Inflation Adjusted)
+7.81%
(+5.40%)
Average : 2.9 / 5
Good : 3.5 / 5
Standard Deviation
over 25 Years
10.58%
Average : 2.4 / 5
Good : 3.2 / 5
Maximum Drawdown
over 25 Years
-36.89%
Average : 2.2 / 5
Average : 2.7 / 5
Easy to manage 8 ETFs
Bad : 1.5 / 5
Bad : 1.5 / 5
Rating assigned considering all the High Risk Portfolios Rating assigned considering all the Portfolios in the database

Capital Growth

Time Range:

An investment of 1000$, since January 1997, now would be worth 6559.94$, with a total return of 555.99% (7.81% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 3724.89$, with a net total return of 272.49% (5.40% annualized).

Drawdowns

Time Range:

Worst drawdowns since January 1997 - Chart and Data

Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months
-36.89% Nov 2007 Feb 2009 16 Oct 2010 20 36
-14.99% Jan 2020 Mar 2020 3 Aug 2020 5 8
-14.05% May 1998 Aug 1998 4 Apr 1999 8 12
-12.72% May 2011 Sep 2011 5 Mar 2012 6 11
-11.06% Jun 2002 Sep 2002 4 Jun 2003 9 13
-8.88% Feb 2001 Sep 2001 8 Mar 2002 6 14
-8.24% Feb 2018 Dec 2018 11 Apr 2019 4 15
-7.70% Mar 2015 Jan 2016 11 Jun 2016 5 16
-5.90% Apr 2012 May 2012 2 Sep 2012 4 6
-5.84% Sep 2000 Nov 2000 3 Jan 2001 2 5
-5.84% Apr 2004 Apr 2004 1 Sep 2004 5 6
-4.25% Oct 1997 Oct 1997 1 Feb 1998 4 5
-4.25% May 2013 Jun 2013 2 Sep 2013 3 5
-3.95% Sep 2014 Sep 2014 1 Jan 2015 4 5
-3.67% Jun 2007 Jul 2007 2 Sep 2007 2 4
-3.25% May 2006 May 2006 1 Sep 2006 4 5
-3.16% May 2019 May 2019 1 Jun 2019 1 2
-3.15% Sep 2020 Oct 2020 2 Nov 2020 1 3
-3.13% Aug 1997 Aug 1997 1 Sep 1997 1 2
-3.10% Sep 2021 Sep 2021 1 Dec 2021 3 4

Rolling Returns ( more details)

Pinwheel Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns

Swipe left to see all data
Return (*) Negative
Periods
Rolling Period Average Best Worst
1 Year
+8.51% +44.78%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2010
-32.48%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
17.54%
2 Years
+8.03% +31.96%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011
-16.44%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
9.27%
3 Years
+7.83% +22.39%
Apr 2003 - Mar 2006
-6.91%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009
4.65%
5 Years
+7.69% +17.92%
Nov 2002 - Oct 2007
+1.11%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009
0.00%
7 Years
+7.64% +11.86%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2007
+3.52%
Apr 2013 - Mar 2020
0.00%
10 Years
+7.94% +11.01%
Apr 2003 - Mar 2013
+4.98%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
0.00%
15 Years
+7.78% +9.34%
Feb 2003 - Jan 2018
+5.53%
Mar 1994 - Feb 2009
0.00%
20 Years
+7.73% +8.66%
Mar 1995 - Feb 2015
+6.36%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
0.00%

* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Pinwheel Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

Pinwheel Portfolio Seasonality: in which months is it better to invest?

In the table below, the average monthly return is represented.

Below each return, it's also mentioned the probability of obtaining a positive monthly result (Win %).

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.

Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Win %
0.45
57%
0.15
61%
0.65
75%
1.84
89%
0.30
61%
0.43
57%
0.78
64%
0.05
64%
0.24
61%
0.42
61%
1.06
64%
1.74
79%
Best
Year
6.7
2019
3.8
2014
5.6
2016
9.6
2009
5.9
2009
4.5
2019
6.9
2009
3.5
2009
6.2
2010
8.5
2011
6.9
2020
5.7
2008
Worst
Year
-7.8
2009
-7.6
2009
-10.3
2020
-5.8
2004
-5.7
2012
-5.3
2008
-5.8
2002
-9.8
1998
-8.2
2011
-15.8
2008
-4.5
2008
-4.3
2018
Statistics calculated for the period Jan 1994 - Dec 2021

For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.

Monthly/Yearly Returns

Pinwheel Portfolio monthly and yearly returns: how is the distribution of the returns recorded so far?

MONTHLY RETURNS HISTOGRAM
222 Positive Months (66%) - 114 Negative Months (34%)
Jan 1994 - Dec 2021
Swipe left to see all data
Yearly Return(%)
Monthly Return(%)
Year Total Infl.Adj Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2021
+13.53 +5.98 0.4 1.8 2.1 3.1 2.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 -3.1 3.2 -2.0 3.8
2020
+9.12 +7.72 -0.8 -4.5 -10.3 6.4 2.6 2.4 4.0 2.4 -2.3 -0.9 6.9 4.1
2019
+19.31 +16.67 6.7 1.2 0.8 1.7 -3.2 4.5 0.1 0.2 1.3 1.9 0.5 2.4
2018
-6.39 -8.15 2.0 -3.7 0.5 0.1 1.0 -0.2 1.4 0.5 -0.8 -4.5 1.8 -4.3
2017
+14.08 +11.73 1.9 1.9 0.4 1.1 0.8 0.6 1.9 0.5 1.0 0.8 1.3 1.0
2016
+8.63 +6.45 -2.4 0.8 5.6 0.9 -0.5 2.5 3.1 -0.8 0.4 -2.4 -0.2 1.5
2015
-2.88 -3.49 1.3 1.3 -0.3 0.2 -0.1 -1.9 -0.1 -4.0 -1.3 4.4 -0.8 -1.3
2014
+6.12 +5.43 -1.3 3.8 0.1 0.8 1.1 1.9 -1.5 2.0 -4.0 2.7 0.7 -0.3
2013
+9.02 +7.40 2.3 -0.3 1.7 1.6 -1.8 -2.5 3.4 -2.2 3.6 2.8 -0.1 0.6
2012
+12.60 +10.66 5.6 1.5 1.0 -0.2 -5.7 3.7 0.6 1.8 1.8 -0.9 0.9 2.2
2011
-0.25 -3.21 0.2 2.7 0.4 3.7 -0.7 -1.5 0.3 -3.1 -8.2 8.5 -0.8 -0.8
2010
+16.08 +14.44 -3.0 2.4 4.8 2.4 -4.9 -2.4 5.3 -1.7 6.2 3.1 -0.9 4.5
2009
+24.19 +20.79 -7.8 -7.6 5.1 9.6 5.9 -1.4 6.9 3.5 4.6 -2.2 5.3 1.7
2008
-22.51 -22.49 -1.9 -0.3 0.0 2.7 1.0 -5.3 -0.4 -1.0 -3.9 -15.8 -4.5 5.7
2007
+7.60 +3.36 2.3 -0.5 0.8 2.0 1.5 -1.7 -2.0 1.7 4.4 3.6 -3.8 -0.7
2006
+19.78 +16.83 5.8 -0.2 2.6 2.3 -3.2 0.3 1.2 1.8 0.4 3.6 3.4 0.7
2005
+11.02 +7.43 -2.6 2.8 -2.2 0.0 1.7 2.3 3.3 0.1 2.4 -2.5 3.5 2.1
2004
+15.19 +11.47 1.4 1.6 1.8 -5.8 1.7 2.0 -1.9 2.5 1.9 2.4 4.7 2.5
2003
+28.19 +25.63 -1.3 -1.4 -0.5 5.2 5.4 1.3 2.3 2.8 1.3 3.9 2.2 4.2
2002
-2.13 -4.49 -0.2 1.2 3.4 0.8 0.4 -2.3 -5.8 0.8 -4.1 1.0 3.2 0.0
2001
-0.61 -2.18 2.5 -3.9 -3.6 4.2 0.6 0.3 -1.2 -0.3 -5.0 0.9 3.4 2.0
2000
+1.80 -1.58 -2.8 1.9 2.0 -1.3 -1.3 3.4 0.1 1.5 -1.3 -2.1 -2.6 4.6
1999
+15.18 +12.18 0.0 -2.1 2.3 5.7 -1.5 2.5 -1.2 -0.6 0.7 1.5 2.2 5.0
1998
+3.43 +1.79 0.4 3.4 2.7 0.2 -2.6 -0.1 -2.1 -9.8 4.1 3.7 3.0 1.3
1997
+8.85 +7.03 0.5 0.9 -1.8 0.3 4.3 3.1 2.8 -3.1 4.7 -4.3 0.2 1.2
1996
+13.00 +9.30 2.3 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.0 0.1 -2.5 1.9 2.1 0.7 3.3 1.3
1995
+14.60 +11.77 -1.6 1.1 1.9 1.8 2.4 1.1 2.3 0.1 1.5 -1.6 2.2 2.5
1994
-2.32 -4.80 3.2 -2.1 -3.9 0.8 0.6 -0.8 1.4 2.6 -1.7 0.0 -3.2 1.1

* Note:
Portofolio Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.

In particular, it has been used:

  • EFA - iShares MSCI EAFE: simulated historical serie, up to December 2001
  • VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2001
  • VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
  • EEM - iShares MSCI Emerging Markets: simulated historical serie, up to December 2003
  • IJS - iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value: simulated historical serie, up to December 2000
  • IEI - iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
  • BIL - SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
  • GLD - SPDR Gold Trust: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
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