Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio: Rolling Returns

Data Source: from January 1976 to February 2024 (~48 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 29 February 2024

Holding the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?

Considering all the available data source (~48 years), the longest period with a negative return lasted 68 months (from August 1997 to March 2003).

This means that every rolling period of 69 months or above has always granted a positive return.

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Considering all 10-year rolling periods, is there a relationship between past and future returns, at a given date?

In the following chart, we show how past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis) are related.

Neighboring data is aggregated and occurrences are indicated. It is possible to zoom by clicking or drawing the desired area

PAUL MERRIMAN ULTIMATE BUY AND HOLD STRATEGY PORTFOLIO
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Updated to February 2024

The annualized return of the last 10 years has been 6.47% (updated at Feb 29, 2024).

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

PAUL MERRIMAN ULTIMATE BUY AND HOLD STRATEGY PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 March 1994 - 29 February 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1976 - 29 February 2024 (~48 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -49.19 03/2008
02/2009
0.50$ -5.78 0.94$ 9.97 1.09$ 24.27 1.24$ 68.65 03/2009
02/2010
1.68$ 10.23 28.94%
2Y -30.72 03/2007
02/2009
0.47$ -1.96 0.96$ 9.08 1.18$ 19.83 1.43$ 45.51 03/2009
02/2011
2.11$ 1.79 18.69%
3Y -17.09 03/2006
02/2009
0.57$ 0.99 1.03$ 9.18 1.30$ 15.48 1.54$ 33.96 04/2003
03/2006
2.40$ 3.37 12.62%
4Y -9.15 03/2005
02/2009
0.68$ 1.11 1.04$ 8.46 1.38$ 13.88 1.68$ 29.54 04/2003
03/2007
2.81$ 8.79 10.86%
5Y -3.83 03/2004
02/2009
0.82$ 2.90 1.15$ 8.27 1.48$ 12.92 1.83$ 24.86 11/2002
10/2007
3.03$ 6.64 6.31%
6Y 1.26 12/2006
11/2012
1.07$ 3.85 1.25$ 8.05 1.59$ 12.26 2.00$ 20.30 03/2009
02/2015
3.03$ 5.37 0.00%
7Y 2.03 03/2002
02/2009
1.15$ 4.75 1.38$ 8.36 1.75$ 11.76 2.17$ 15.25 03/2009
02/2016
2.70$ 6.74 0.00%
8Y 1.36 03/2001
02/2009
1.11$ 5.49 1.53$ 8.06 1.85$ 11.33 2.35$ 16.42 03/2009
02/2017
3.37$ 8.86 0.00%
9Y 1.34 03/2000
02/2009
1.12$ 5.68 1.64$ 8.75 2.12$ 11.10 2.57$ 16.30 03/2009
02/2018
3.89$ 6.46 0.00%
10Y 3.22 03/1999
02/2009
1.37$ 5.79 1.75$ 8.81 2.32$ 11.07 2.85$ 14.47 03/2009
02/2019
3.86$ 6.47 0.00%
11Y 2.26 03/1998
02/2009
1.27$ 6.24 1.94$ 8.40 2.42$ 11.42 3.28$ 12.91 03/2009
02/2020
3.80$ 7.68 0.00%
12Y 3.26 03/1997
02/2009
1.47$ 6.27 2.07$ 8.05 2.53$ 11.25 3.59$ 14.01 03/2009
02/2021
4.82$ 8.05 0.00%
13Y 2.95 04/2007
03/2020
1.45$ 6.22 2.19$ 8.13 2.76$ 10.36 3.60$ 13.42 03/2009
02/2022
5.14$ 7.36 0.00%
14Y 3.90 04/2006
03/2020
1.70$ 6.44 2.39$ 8.21 3.01$ 9.51 3.56$ 11.91 03/2009
02/2023
4.83$ 8.56 0.00%
15Y 4.09 10/2007
09/2022
1.82$ 6.29 2.49$ 8.01 3.17$ 9.35 3.82$ 11.80 03/2009
02/2024
5.32$ 11.80 0.00%
16Y 4.26 11/2007
10/2023
1.95$ 6.78 2.85$ 8.11 3.48$ 9.40 4.21$ 11.05 10/2002
09/2018
5.34$ 6.42 0.00%
17Y 5.15 11/2006
10/2023
2.34$ 7.59 3.46$ 8.44 3.96$ 9.03 4.34$ 10.45 01/2003
12/2019
5.42$ 5.68 0.00%
18Y 6.20 02/2006
01/2024
2.95$ 7.41 3.61$ 8.51 4.34$ 9.13 4.81$ 11.07 04/2003
03/2021
6.61$ 6.36 0.00%
19Y 6.90 11/2004
10/2023
3.54$ 7.68 4.08$ 8.51 4.71$ 9.44 5.54$ 10.77 11/2002
10/2021
6.98$ 7.02 0.00%
20Y 6.29 04/2000
03/2020
3.38$ 7.93 4.59$ 8.50 5.11$ 9.27 5.88$ 9.96 11/2001
10/2021
6.68$ 7.67 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -49.20 03/2008
02/2009
0.50$ -8.82 0.91$ 7.18 1.07$ 21.38 1.21$ 65.10 03/2009
02/2010
1.65$ 6.85 32.95%
2Y -32.12 03/2007
02/2009
0.46$ -4.84 0.90$ 6.03 1.12$ 16.89 1.36$ 42.46 03/2009
02/2011
2.02$ -2.64 24.93%
3Y -18.85 03/2006
02/2009
0.53$ -1.15 0.96$ 6.66 1.21$ 12.97 1.44$ 30.33 04/2003
03/2006
2.21$ -2.18 19.69%
4Y -11.40 03/2005
02/2009
0.61$ -1.22 0.95$ 6.45 1.28$ 11.28 1.53$ 26.02 04/2003
03/2007
2.52$ 3.95 19.17%
5Y -6.31 03/2004
02/2009
0.72$ 0.23 1.01$ 5.56 1.31$ 10.86 1.67$ 21.32 11/2002
10/2007
2.62$ 2.35 13.29%
6Y -1.00 12/2006
11/2012
0.94$ 1.36 1.08$ 5.93 1.41$ 9.84 1.75$ 18.29 03/2009
02/2015
2.73$ 1.57 5.19%
7Y -0.53 03/2002
02/2009
0.96$ 2.44 1.18$ 5.78 1.48$ 9.26 1.85$ 13.46 03/2009
02/2016
2.42$ 3.10 0.72%
8Y -1.01 03/2001
02/2009
0.92$ 3.02 1.26$ 6.03 1.59$ 9.15 2.01$ 14.44 03/2009
02/2017
2.94$ 5.24 0.75%
9Y -1.15 03/2000
02/2009
0.90$ 3.06 1.31$ 6.27 1.72$ 8.48 2.08$ 14.26 03/2009
02/2018
3.31$ 3.22 0.79%
10Y 0.62 03/1999
02/2009
1.06$ 3.71 1.43$ 6.36 1.85$ 8.50 2.26$ 12.49 03/2009
02/2019
3.24$ 3.55 0.00%
11Y -0.24 03/1998
02/2009
0.97$ 4.20 1.57$ 5.84 1.86$ 8.75 2.51$ 10.90 03/2009
02/2020
3.12$ 4.89 0.44%
12Y 0.83 03/1997
02/2009
1.10$ 3.99 1.59$ 5.69 1.94$ 8.64 2.70$ 11.99 03/2009
02/2021
3.89$ 5.30 0.00%
13Y 1.15 04/2007
03/2020
1.16$ 4.13 1.69$ 5.73 2.06$ 7.99 2.71$ 10.91 03/2009
02/2022
3.84$ 4.60 0.00%
14Y 2.02 04/2006
03/2020
1.32$ 4.28 1.79$ 5.65 2.15$ 7.05 2.59$ 9.16 03/2009
02/2023
3.40$ 5.82 0.00%
15Y 1.68 10/2007
09/2022
1.28$ 4.27 1.87$ 5.71 2.30$ 6.93 2.73$ 9.45 02/2003
01/2018
3.87$ 9.00 0.00%
16Y 1.78 11/2007
10/2023
1.32$ 4.38 1.98$ 5.74 2.44$ 7.04 2.96$ 8.76 10/2002
09/2018
3.83$ 3.92 0.00%
17Y 2.58 11/2006
10/2023
1.54$ 5.09 2.32$ 6.08 2.72$ 6.80 3.05$ 8.19 01/2003
12/2019
3.81$ 3.09 0.00%
18Y 3.63 02/2006
01/2024
1.90$ 5.01 2.41$ 6.17 2.93$ 6.76 3.24$ 8.84 04/2003
03/2021
4.59$ 3.77 0.00%
19Y 4.24 11/2004
10/2023
2.20$ 5.31 2.67$ 6.11 3.08$ 6.97 3.59$ 8.34 11/2002
10/2021
4.57$ 4.35 0.00%
20Y 4.13 04/2000
03/2020
2.24$ 5.58 2.96$ 6.14 3.29$ 6.84 3.75$ 7.56 11/2001
10/2021
4.29$ 4.95 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -49.19 03/2008
02/2009
0.50$ -4.44 0.95$ 13.15 1.13$ 27.74 1.27$ 68.65 03/2009
02/2010
1.68$ 10.23 22.75%
2Y -30.72 03/2007
02/2009
0.47$ 1.76 1.03$ 12.63 1.26$ 21.61 1.47$ 45.51 03/2009
02/2011
2.11$ 1.79 11.53%
3Y -17.09 03/2006
02/2009
0.57$ 4.59 1.14$ 10.96 1.36$ 21.63 1.79$ 40.49 08/1984
07/1987
2.77$ 3.37 7.55%
4Y -9.15 03/2005
02/2009
0.68$ 4.51 1.19$ 11.13 1.52$ 19.08 2.01$ 32.84 08/1982
07/1986
3.11$ 8.79 6.40%
5Y -3.83 03/2004
02/2009
0.82$ 4.36 1.23$ 11.49 1.72$ 18.37 2.32$ 34.09 08/1982
07/1987
4.33$ 6.64 3.66%
6Y 1.26 12/2006
11/2012
1.07$ 5.82 1.40$ 11.04 1.87$ 17.18 2.58$ 27.27 08/1982
07/1988
4.24$ 5.37 0.00%
7Y 2.03 03/2002
02/2009
1.15$ 6.02 1.50$ 11.13 2.09$ 17.07 3.01$ 27.11 08/1982
07/1989
5.36$ 6.74 0.00%
8Y 1.36 03/2001
02/2009
1.11$ 6.41 1.64$ 10.98 2.30$ 17.82 3.71$ 23.78 08/1982
07/1990
5.51$ 8.86 0.00%
9Y 1.34 03/2000
02/2009
1.12$ 6.51 1.76$ 10.49 2.45$ 17.96 4.42$ 22.26 03/1978
02/1987
6.10$ 6.46 0.00%
10Y 3.22 03/1999
02/2009
1.37$ 7.03 1.97$ 10.67 2.75$ 17.95 5.21$ 21.79 09/1977
08/1987
7.17$ 6.47 0.00%
11Y 2.26 03/1998
02/2009
1.27$ 7.03 2.11$ 10.35 2.95$ 17.06 5.65$ 21.03 09/1976
08/1987
8.16$ 7.68 0.00%
12Y 3.26 03/1997
02/2009
1.47$ 7.12 2.28$ 10.42 3.28$ 16.75 6.41$ 19.92 10/1977
09/1989
8.84$ 8.05 0.00%
13Y 2.95 04/2007
03/2020
1.45$ 7.36 2.51$ 10.55 3.68$ 16.56 7.33$ 19.40 09/1976
08/1989
10.02$ 7.36 0.00%
14Y 3.90 04/2006
03/2020
1.70$ 7.27 2.66$ 10.17 3.87$ 16.48 8.46$ 19.33 01/1976
12/1989
11.87$ 8.56 0.00%
15Y 4.09 10/2007
09/2022
1.82$ 7.43 2.93$ 9.96 4.15$ 16.20 9.50$ 18.75 08/1982
07/1997
13.17$ 11.80 0.00%
16Y 4.26 11/2007
10/2023
1.95$ 7.64 3.24$ 10.31 4.80$ 15.73 10.35$ 18.18 02/1978
01/1994
14.48$ 6.42 0.00%
17Y 5.15 11/2006
10/2023
2.34$ 8.10 3.75$ 10.03 5.07$ 15.75 12.01$ 17.71 02/1977
01/1994
15.99$ 5.68 0.00%
18Y 6.20 02/2006
01/2024
2.95$ 8.13 4.08$ 10.42 5.95$ 15.46 13.29$ 17.61 01/1976
12/1993
18.52$ 6.36 0.00%
19Y 6.43 03/1990
02/2009
3.26$ 8.00 4.31$ 10.01 6.12$ 14.94 14.08$ 16.65 06/1977
05/1996
18.64$ 7.02 0.00%
20Y 6.29 04/2000
03/2020
3.38$ 8.29 4.91$ 9.68 6.35$ 14.50 15.00$ 16.46 01/1976
12/1995
21.06$ 7.67 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -49.20 03/2008
02/2009
0.50$ -7.09 0.92$ 7.98 1.07$ 23.60 1.23$ 65.10 03/2009
02/2010
1.65$ 6.85 28.92%
2Y -32.12 03/2007
02/2009
0.46$ -2.22 0.95$ 8.24 1.17$ 17.08 1.37$ 42.46 03/2009
02/2011
2.02$ -2.64 19.10%
3Y -18.85 03/2006
02/2009
0.53$ 0.82 1.02$ 7.45 1.24$ 17.13 1.60$ 36.38 08/1984
07/1987
2.53$ -2.18 14.00%
4Y -11.40 03/2005
02/2009
0.61$ 0.93 1.03$ 7.62 1.34$ 14.18 1.69$ 29.04 08/1982
07/1986
2.77$ 3.95 12.24%
5Y -6.31 03/2004
02/2009
0.72$ 1.62 1.08$ 7.51 1.43$ 14.58 1.97$ 30.01 08/1982
07/1987
3.71$ 2.35 7.90%
6Y -1.00 12/2006
11/2012
0.94$ 2.95 1.19$ 7.37 1.53$ 12.89 2.07$ 23.19 08/1982
07/1988
3.49$ 1.57 2.96%
7Y -0.53 03/2002
02/2009
0.96$ 3.53 1.27$ 7.81 1.69$ 12.04 2.21$ 22.75 08/1982
07/1989
4.19$ 3.10 0.40%
8Y -1.01 03/2001
02/2009
0.92$ 3.94 1.36$ 7.96 1.84$ 12.94 2.64$ 19.35 08/1982
07/1990
4.11$ 5.24 0.41%
9Y -1.15 03/2000
02/2009
0.90$ 4.31 1.46$ 7.84 1.97$ 12.61 2.91$ 16.84 08/1982
07/1991
4.05$ 3.22 0.42%
10Y 0.62 03/1999
02/2009
1.06$ 4.64 1.57$ 7.74 2.10$ 12.35 3.20$ 16.31 08/1982
07/1992
4.53$ 3.55 0.00%
11Y -0.24 03/1998
02/2009
0.97$ 4.75 1.66$ 7.63 2.24$ 12.12 3.51$ 16.48 08/1982
07/1993
5.35$ 4.89 0.22%
12Y 0.83 03/1997
02/2009
1.10$ 4.71 1.73$ 7.66 2.42$ 11.88 3.84$ 15.70 08/1982
07/1994
5.75$ 5.30 0.00%
13Y 1.15 04/2007
03/2020
1.16$ 4.75 1.82$ 7.69 2.62$ 11.76 4.24$ 15.04 08/1982
07/1995
6.17$ 4.60 0.00%
14Y 2.02 04/2006
03/2020
1.32$ 4.85 1.94$ 7.26 2.66$ 11.10 4.36$ 14.41 07/1982
06/1996
6.58$ 5.82 0.00%
15Y 1.68 10/2007
09/2022
1.28$ 4.98 2.07$ 7.14 2.81$ 11.07 4.82$ 14.88 08/1982
07/1997
8.00$ 9.00 0.00%
16Y 1.78 11/2007
10/2023
1.32$ 5.17 2.24$ 7.44 3.15$ 11.00 5.30$ 13.70 08/1982
07/1998
7.80$ 3.92 0.00%
17Y 2.58 11/2006
10/2023
1.54$ 5.61 2.52$ 7.07 3.19$ 10.80 5.71$ 13.51 08/1982
07/1999
8.62$ 3.09 0.00%
18Y 3.63 02/2006
01/2024
1.90$ 5.65 2.68$ 7.37 3.59$ 10.59 6.12$ 12.90 08/1982
07/2000
8.88$ 3.77 0.00%
19Y 3.62 03/1990
02/2009
1.96$ 5.67 2.84$ 7.24 3.77$ 10.38 6.52$ 11.90 08/1982
07/2001
8.46$ 4.35 0.00%
20Y 3.78 03/1989
02/2009
2.10$ 5.85 3.11$ 7.05 3.90$ 10.24 7.02$ 11.18 04/1980
03/2000
8.32$ 4.95 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods

Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)

Swipe left to see all data
Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +13.15% +68.65%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2010
-49.19%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
22.75%
129 out of 567
US Inflation Adjusted +7.98% +65.10%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2010
-49.20%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
28.92%
164 out of 567
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)

Swipe left to see all data
Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +12.63% +45.51%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011
-30.72%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
11.53%
64 out of 555
US Inflation Adjusted +8.24% +42.46%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011
-32.12%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
19.10%
106 out of 555
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)

Swipe left to see all data
Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.96% +40.49%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1987
-17.09%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009
7.55%
41 out of 543
US Inflation Adjusted +7.45% +36.38%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1987
-18.85%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009
14.00%
76 out of 543
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)

Swipe left to see all data
Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +11.13% +32.84%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1986
-9.15%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009
6.40%
34 out of 531
US Inflation Adjusted +7.62% +29.04%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1986
-11.40%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009
12.24%
65 out of 531
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)

Swipe left to see all data
Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +11.49% +34.09%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1987
-3.83%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009
3.66%
19 out of 519
US Inflation Adjusted +7.51% +30.01%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1987
-6.31%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009
7.90%
41 out of 519
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)

Swipe left to see all data
Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +11.04% +27.27%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1988
+1.26%
Dec 2006 - Nov 2012
0.00%
0 out of 507
US Inflation Adjusted +7.37% +23.19%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1988
-1.00%
Dec 2006 - Nov 2012
2.96%
15 out of 507
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)

Swipe left to see all data
Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +11.13% +27.11%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1989
+2.03%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 495
US Inflation Adjusted +7.81% +22.75%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1989
-0.53%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
0.40%
2 out of 495
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)

Swipe left to see all data
Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.98% +23.78%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1990
+1.36%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 483
US Inflation Adjusted +7.96% +19.35%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1990
-1.01%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009
0.41%
2 out of 483
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)

Swipe left to see all data
Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.49% +22.26%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1987
+1.34%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 471
US Inflation Adjusted +7.84% +16.84%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1991
-1.15%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009
0.42%
2 out of 471
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)

Swipe left to see all data
Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.67% +21.79%
Sep 1977 - Aug 1987
+3.22%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 459
US Inflation Adjusted +7.74% +16.31%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1992
+0.62%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 459
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)

Swipe left to see all data
Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.35% +21.03%
Sep 1976 - Aug 1987
+2.26%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 447
US Inflation Adjusted +7.63% +16.48%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1993
-0.24%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009
0.22%
1 out of 447
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)

Swipe left to see all data
Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.42% +19.92%
Oct 1977 - Sep 1989
+3.26%
Mar 1997 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 435
US Inflation Adjusted +7.66% +15.70%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1994
+0.83%
Mar 1997 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 435
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 13 Years (156 months)

Swipe left to see all data
Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.55% +19.40%
Sep 1976 - Aug 1989
+2.95%
Apr 2007 - Mar 2020
0.00%
0 out of 423
US Inflation Adjusted +7.69% +15.04%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1995
+1.15%
Apr 2007 - Mar 2020
0.00%
0 out of 423
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 14 Years (168 months)

Swipe left to see all data
Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.17% +19.33%
Jan 1976 - Dec 1989
+3.90%
Apr 2006 - Mar 2020
0.00%
0 out of 411
US Inflation Adjusted +7.26% +14.41%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1996
+2.02%
Apr 2006 - Mar 2020
0.00%
0 out of 411
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 15 Years (180 months)

Swipe left to see all data
Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +9.96% +18.75%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997
+4.09%
Oct 2007 - Sep 2022
0.00%
0 out of 399
US Inflation Adjusted +7.14% +14.88%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997
+1.68%
Oct 2007 - Sep 2022
0.00%
0 out of 399
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 16 Years (192 months)

Swipe left to see all data
Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.31% +18.18%
Feb 1978 - Jan 1994
+4.26%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023
0.00%
0 out of 387
US Inflation Adjusted +7.44% +13.70%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1998
+1.78%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023
0.00%
0 out of 387
16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 17 Years (204 months)

Swipe left to see all data
Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.03% +17.71%
Feb 1977 - Jan 1994
+5.15%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023
0.00%
0 out of 375
US Inflation Adjusted +7.07% +13.51%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1999
+2.58%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023
0.00%
0 out of 375
17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 18 Years (216 months)

Swipe left to see all data
Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.42% +17.61%
Jan 1976 - Dec 1993
+6.20%
Feb 2006 - Jan 2024
0.00%
0 out of 363
US Inflation Adjusted +7.37% +12.90%
Aug 1982 - Jul 2000
+3.63%
Feb 2006 - Jan 2024
0.00%
0 out of 363
18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 19 Years (228 months)

Swipe left to see all data
Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.01% +16.65%
Jun 1977 - May 1996
+6.43%
Mar 1990 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 351
US Inflation Adjusted +7.24% +11.90%
Aug 1982 - Jul 2001
+3.62%
Mar 1990 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 351
19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 20 Years (240 months)

Swipe left to see all data
Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +9.68% +16.46%
Jan 1976 - Dec 1995
+6.29%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
0.00%
0 out of 339
US Inflation Adjusted +7.05% +11.18%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
+3.78%
Mar 1989 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 339
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.