Data Source: from March 1987 to December 2021

Last Update: 31 December 2021

The Paul Boyer Portfolio is exposed for 25% on the Stock Market and for 25% on Commodities.

It's a Medium Risk portfolio and it can be replicated with 5 ETFs.

In the last 10 years, the portfolio obtained a 4.49% compound annual return, with a 6.35% standard deviation.

In the last 25 years, a 7.05% compound annual return, with a 7.32% standard deviation.

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Paul Boyer Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

25% Stocks
50% Fixed Income
25% Commodities

The Paul Boyer Portfolio can be replicated with the following ETFs:

Weight Ticker ETF Name Investment Themes
12.50 % EEM iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Equity, Emerging Markets, Large Cap
12.50 % IJR iShares Core S&P Small-Cap Equity, U.S., Small Cap
25.00 % SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond Bond, U.S., Short Term
25.00 % TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Bond, U.S., Long-Term
25.00 % GLD SPDR Gold Trust Commodity, Gold
Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns

The Paul Boyer Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

PAUL BOYER PORTFOLIO RETURNS (%)
Last Update: 31 December 2021
Swipe left to see all data
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y(*) 5Y(*) 10Y(*) 20Y(*) 25Y(*)
Paul Boyer Portfolio +1.09 +2.21 +0.46 +0.51 +9.63 +7.30 +4.49 +7.95 +7.05
--- Inflation Adjusted return +0.62 +0.00 -2.85 -6.18 +5.89 +4.26 +2.32 +5.51 +4.65
Components
EEM
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets
+1.53 -1.57 -10.09 -3.61 +10.06 +9.16 +4.73 +8.87 +5.94
IJR
iShares Core S&P Small-Cap
+4.50 +5.57 +2.49 +26.60 +20.05 +12.37 +14.47 +10.68 +10.37
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond
-0.21 -0.60 -0.57 -0.72 +1.88 +1.47 +0.95 +2.17 +3.01
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond
-2.01 +3.18 +3.55 -4.60 +8.75 +6.68 +4.51 +6.76 +7.00
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust
+3.30 +4.10 +3.22 -4.15 +12.13 +9.30 +1.18 +9.51 +6.30
(*) annualized
Portfolio returns are calculated assuming:
  • a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (i.e. at every January 1st)
  • the reinvestment of dividends

Inflation is updated to Dec 2021. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 7.12% , 3Y: 3.53% , 5Y: 2.92% , 10Y: 2.12% , 20Y: 2.31% , 25Y: 2.29%

In 2021, the portfolio granted a 0.90% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Paul Boyer Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Historical Returns

Historical returns and stats of Paul Boyer Portfolio. Total Returns and Inflation Adjusted Returns are both mentioned.

PAUL BOYER PORTFOLIO
Last Update: 31 December 2021
Swipe left to see all data
Period Return
Dec 2021
update
Return
Inflation
Adjusted
Standard
Deviation(*)
Max
Drawdown
Months
Pos - Neg
1M
Dec 2021
+1.09%
+0.62%
0.00%
1 - 0
3M
+2.21%
+0.00%
-0.40%
Nov 2021 - Nov 2021
2 - 1
6M
+0.46%
-2.85%
-2.33%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
4 - 2
YTD
+0.51%
-6.18%
4.83%
-3.38%
Jan 2021 - Mar 2021
6 - 6
50% pos
1Y
+0.51%
-6.18%
4.83%
-3.38%
Jan 2021 - Mar 2021
6 - 6
50% pos
3Y
+9.63%
annualized
+5.89%
annualized
6.53%
-3.38%
Jan 2021 - Mar 2021
22 - 14
61% pos
5Y
+7.30%
annualized
+4.26%
annualized
5.87%
-6.72%
Feb 2018 - Oct 2018
39 - 21
65% pos
10Y
+4.49%
annualized
+2.32%
annualized
6.35%
-9.15%
Feb 2015 - Dec 2015
70 - 50
58% pos
20Y
+7.95%
annualized
+5.51%
annualized
7.33%
-13.66%
Mar 2008 - Oct 2008
153 - 87
64% pos
25Y
+7.05%
annualized
+4.65%
annualized
7.32%
-13.66%
Mar 2008 - Oct 2008
185 - 115
62% pos
MAX
01 Mar 1987
+7.50%
annualized
+4.70%
annualized
7.14%
-13.66%
Mar 2008 - Oct 2008
261 - 157
62% pos
(*)Annualized St.Dev. of monthly returns

Portfolio efficiency

Is the Paul Boyer Portfolio actually efficient, compared to other Lazy Portfolios?

Best Classic Portfolios, with Medium Risk, ordered by 25 Years annualized return.

25 Years Stats
% Allocation
Portfolio Return Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm.
Couch Potato
Scott Burns
+8.33% -27.03% 50 50 0 Compare
All Weather Portfolio
Ray Dalio
+7.89% -12.19% 30 55 15 Compare
Robo Advisor 50
Betterment
+7.63% -30.72% 49.9 50.1 0 Compare
Simplified Permanent Portfolio
+7.48% -13.28% 25 50 25 Compare
Stocks/Bonds 40/60
+7.24% -19.17% 40 60 0 Compare

See all portfolios

Our overall ratings, assigned to the Paul Boyer Portfolio. The portfolio is classified as Medium Risk.

Very High Risk
Bond weight:
Less than 25%
High Risk
Bond weight:
25% - 49.99%
Medium Risk
Bond weight:
50% - 74.99%
Low Risk
Bond weight:
At least 75%
Medium Risk
Portfolios
All
Portfolios
25 Years Ann. Return
(Inflation Adjusted)
+7.05%
(+4.65%)
Average : 2.9 / 5
Average : 3 / 5
Standard Deviation
over 25 Years
7.32%
Average : 2.4 / 5
Good : 4 / 5
Maximum Drawdown
over 25 Years
-13.66%
Excellent : 5 / 5
Excellent : 4.4 / 5
Easy to manage 5 ETFs
Average : 3 / 5
Average : 3 / 5
Rating assigned considering all the Medium Risk Portfolios Rating assigned considering all the Portfolios in the database

Capital Growth

Time Range:

An investment of 1000$, since January 1997, now would be worth 5491.88$, with a total return of 449.19% (7.05% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 3118.42$, with a net total return of 211.84% (4.65% annualized).

Drawdowns

Time Range:

Worst drawdowns since January 1997 - Chart and Data

Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months
-13.66% Mar 2008 Oct 2008 8 Jul 2009 9 17
-9.22% May 1998 Aug 1998 4 Apr 1999 8 12
-9.15% Feb 2015 Dec 2015 11 Jun 2016 6 17
-8.62% Oct 2012 Jun 2013 9 Jun 2014 12 21
-6.74% Aug 2016 Dec 2016 5 Jul 2017 7 12
-6.72% Feb 2018 Oct 2018 9 Jun 2019 8 17
-5.64% Apr 2004 Apr 2004 1 Oct 2004 6 7
-4.97% Mar 2000 May 2000 3 Jan 2001 8 11
-4.44% Jun 2002 Jul 2002 2 Dec 2002 5 7
-4.04% Oct 1997 Nov 1997 2 Mar 1998 4 6
-3.75% Feb 2001 Mar 2001 2 Aug 2001 5 7
-3.72% Sep 2014 Sep 2014 1 Jan 2015 4 5
-3.56% May 1999 Aug 1999 4 Sep 1999 1 5
-3.53% May 2006 Jun 2006 2 Oct 2006 4 6
-3.38% Jan 2021 Mar 2021 3 May 2021 2 5
-3.07% Aug 2020 Oct 2020 3 Dec 2020 2 5
-2.93% Feb 2012 May 2012 4 Aug 2012 3 7
-2.85% Feb 2003 Mar 2003 2 May 2003 2 4
-2.80% Jan 2011 Jan 2011 1 Mar 2011 2 3
-2.72% Sep 2011 Sep 2011 1 Oct 2011 1 2

Rolling Returns ( more details)

Paul Boyer Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns

Swipe left to see all data
Return (*) Negative
Periods
Rolling Period Average Best Worst
1 Year
+7.97% +25.08%
Jan 1993 - Dec 1993
-10.29%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2008
11.06%
2 Years
+7.95% +20.38%
Nov 2008 - Oct 2010
-1.58%
Feb 2012 - Jan 2014
2.53%
3 Years
+7.86% +17.66%
Nov 2008 - Oct 2011
-1.60%
Jan 2013 - Dec 2015
1.57%
5 Years
+7.79% +14.45%
Mar 2003 - Feb 2008
+1.23%
Feb 2012 - Jan 2017
0.00%
7 Years
+7.68% +12.56%
Sep 2004 - Aug 2011
+1.86%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2018
0.00%
10 Years
+7.76% +11.91%
Dec 2001 - Nov 2011
+4.15%
Dec 2011 - Nov 2021
0.00%
15 Years
+8.09% +9.26%
Dec 1997 - Nov 2012
+6.44%
Dec 2006 - Nov 2021
0.00%
20 Years
+8.08% +9.42%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2010
+6.76%
Feb 1996 - Jan 2016
0.00%

* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Paul Boyer Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

Paul Boyer Portfolio Seasonality: in which months is it better to invest?

In the table below, the average monthly return is represented.

Below each return, it's also mentioned the probability of obtaining a positive monthly result (Win %).

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.

Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Win %
0.97
68%
0.39
56%
-0.10
51%
0.87
71%
0.57
69%
0.53
54%
0.76
60%
0.56
69%
0.59
54%
0.09
60%
0.81
63%
1.47
74%
Best
Year
5.0
2006
4.3
2000
2.9
2009
4.1
2020
5.2
2003
4.9
2016
5.5
2020
3.9
2019
4.9
1998
4.3
2007
5.6
2008
8.0
1991
Worst
Year
-4.6
2009
-2.8
1994
-3.0
1994
-5.6
2004
-3.2
2013
-3.9
2013
-2.8
2002
-4.7
1998
-3.7
2014
-9.0
2008
-3.5
2016
-2.2
2011
Statistics calculated for the period Mar 1987 - Dec 2021

For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.

Monthly/Yearly Returns

Paul Boyer Portfolio monthly and yearly returns: how is the distribution of the returns recorded so far?

MONTHLY RETURNS HISTOGRAM
261 Positive Months (62%) - 157 Negative Months (38%)
Mar 1987 - Dec 2021
Swipe left to see all data
Yearly Return(%)
Monthly Return(%)
Year Total Infl.Adj Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2021
+0.51 -6.18 -0.5 -1.8 -1.1 1.8 2.4 -0.7 0.3 0.4 -2.3 1.5 -0.4 1.1
2020
+15.04 +13.56 1.9 0.2 -2.1 4.1 0.8 1.8 5.5 -0.8 -1.6 -0.7 1.8 3.3
2019
+13.97 +11.45 3.5 -0.1 0.8 0.2 0.1 4.0 -0.1 3.9 -1.0 1.2 -0.6 1.5
2018
-3.50 -5.32 1.3 -2.5 1.2 -1.0 0.8 -1.1 -0.1 0.1 -1.4 -2.8 1.4 0.8
2017
+11.87 +9.57 2.3 1.6 0.2 1.2 0.6 0.1 1.4 2.0 -0.6 0.4 0.6 1.5
2016
+7.19 +5.04 1.5 3.7 2.1 1.4 -1.8 4.9 2.3 -0.9 0.2 -2.6 -3.5 -0.1
2015
-5.29 -5.89 4.2 -2.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.8 -1.6 -1.5 -1.1 -0.7 1.9 -1.9 -1.3
2014
+6.63 +5.94 0.9 2.7 -0.1 0.5 0.4 2.3 -1.3 2.3 -3.7 1.1 0.5 1.1
2013
-5.67 -7.07 -0.2 -1.0 0.6 -0.5 -3.2 -3.9 2.2 0.1 1.0 1.4 -1.0 -1.0
2012
+6.80 +4.95 5.0 -0.5 -1.4 0.7 -1.8 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.5 -1.3 0.6 0.1
2011
+8.99 +5.75 -2.8 2.4 1.5 3.6 0.0 -1.6 2.8 3.8 -2.7 3.3 0.9 -2.2
2010
+15.54 +13.90 -0.8 1.5 1.2 3.1 0.0 1.2 0.4 2.4 3.1 0.7 0.2 1.6
2009
+12.50 +9.42 -4.6 -2.1 2.9 1.4 4.5 -1.4 3.8 0.6 4.5 -0.9 5.6 -1.8
2008
+1.32 +1.34 1.9 1.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.4 -0.2 -0.8 -1.9 -0.7 -9.0 5.6 7.5
2007
+16.13 +11.54 0.7 1.2 0.2 1.6 0.0 -0.3 1.0 1.3 4.6 4.3 -0.9 1.4
2006
+12.57 +9.80 5.0 -0.6 0.8 3.5 -2.5 -1.1 1.4 0.9 -0.7 2.2 3.6 -0.4
2005
+11.99 +8.38 -0.4 1.9 -1.9 0.6 1.1 2.6 0.4 1.3 2.0 -2.1 3.2 2.8
2004
+9.39 +5.85 0.2 1.2 2.4 -5.6 0.7 1.3 -1.0 2.5 2.2 1.7 3.3 0.6
2003
+17.95 +15.60 0.9 -1.5 -1.4 2.5 5.2 -0.4 -0.4 3.4 2.1 1.6 1.6 3.1
2002
+9.85 +7.19 1.5 1.9 0.8 2.3 1.2 -1.7 -2.8 2.3 0.5 -0.4 1.0 3.1
2001
+3.66 +2.02 1.5 -1.1 -2.7 1.9 1.0 0.6 -0.1 1.0 -1.1 1.6 -0.2 1.2
2000
+2.00 -1.39 -1.2 4.3 -1.5 -2.0 -1.6 4.2 -1.4 1.9 -1.4 -1.5 -0.7 3.1
1999
+9.10 +6.25 -0.1 -2.0 1.1 4.0 -2.4 1.1 -1.4 -0.8 4.2 0.7 1.3 3.4
1998
+2.30 +0.69 0.8 1.4 1.4 1.0 -3.1 -0.1 -1.5 -4.7 4.9 1.2 1.6 -0.2
1997
+0.72 -0.96 -0.7 1.0 -2.3 0.1 2.8 1.1 2.0 -2.5 3.0 -3.3 -0.8 0.6
1996
+3.88 +0.49 2.7 -1.5 -0.3 0.3 0.6 -0.4 -1.8 1.0 1.2 0.8 1.5 -0.3
1995
+14.46 +11.63 -1.0 1.7 1.5 1.4 3.2 1.2 0.6 0.7 1.0 -0.2 1.8 1.7
1994
-5.01 -7.41 1.1 -2.8 -3.0 -0.5 0.9 -0.8 1.4 1.9 -0.8 -0.5 -1.7 -0.1
1993
+25.08 +21.66 3.2 0.8 2.7 1.7 1.2 2.9 2.9 0.8 -0.7 3.5 -1.4 5.3
1992
+3.02 +0.05 0.4 -0.1 -1.7 -0.1 3.2 -1.7 3.7 -1.9 0.8 -0.8 0.6 0.7
1991
+24.71 +21.10 1.1 3.4 0.4 1.1 3.0 -1.7 1.1 3.1 2.0 2.5 -1.4 8.0
1990
+0.64 -5.28 -1.7 -0.4 -2.1 -1.4 3.2 0.8 3.3 -4.7 -1.1 0.5 2.7 1.8
1989
+21.34 +15.96 1.9 0.4 -0.5 2.5 2.3 1.7 1.5 1.5 2.9 0.2 3.1 2.1
1988
+7.47 +2.92 3.3 0.4 0.4 -0.2 -0.6 3.6 -1.2 -1.2 0.6 1.7 -0.5 0.9
1987
- - -1.9 0.2 -1.6 0.6 2.9 -0.5 -1.3 -4.9 0.8 0.6

* Note:
Portofolio Returns, up to December 2004, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.

In particular, it has been used:

  • EEM - iShares MSCI Emerging Markets: simulated historical serie, up to December 2003
  • IJR - iShares Core S&P Small-Cap: simulated historical serie, up to December 2000
  • SHY - iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2002
  • TLT - iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2002
  • GLD - SPDR Gold Trust: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
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